The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Hamidreza Azizi joins the show once more to ask a deceptively simple question: is the war over? Azizi argues the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is deliberately vague and fully reversible - sanctions relief hinges on a phone call, the $300 billion investment fund is unfunded, and both Iran and the US are already renegotiating its terms through actions, not words. They dig into Iran's Strait of Hormuz fee gambit, China's calculated non-intervention, Turkey's regional rise, and 80% inflation battering Iran domestically. Azizi's verdict: Iran emerges more resilient, not more powerful, and... you'll have to listen to get the rest!

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Jacob Shapiro sits down with Victor Hernandez, a Mexican national security analyst, to stress-test his own optimism about Mexico. Hernandez argues the army now runs eight ministries' budgets, can't out-spy the cartels, and may face limited US drone strikes Mexico has no way to resist. El Mencho's death looks more like an ambush than a victory. Nearshoring pencils out on a spreadsheet - until corruption and parallel taxation eat the margin. A bracing case for what happens if Jacob's wrong.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro and Framing

(01:29) - Meet Victor Hernandez

You might not realize it, but Jacob also appears on a few other podcasts regularly! Jacob is a regular guest RealAgriculture’s Frontlines podcast, hosted by Shaun Hane. Shaun and Jacob discuss geopolitics from an agricultural lens, exploring how the world reacts to the extremely fine-tuned world of ag.

Many analysts expected a prolonged disruption in the Strait to trigger severe economic fallout. Instead, oil prices have risen, inflation pressures have intensified, and shortages are emerging in some regions, yet markets remain resilient. Jacob argues that oil’s influence on the broader economy is no longer as domi...

Florida produced 242 million boxes of oranges in 2003. This year, the USDA is forecasting 12 million... a decline of more than 95% in less than a generation. Jacob sits down with journalist Alexander Sammon, who wrote a definitive autopsy of the Florida orange industry, to understand how disease, globalization, and real estate swallowed one of America's most iconic crops. Scratch the surface of orange juice, and you find geopolitics, government mandates, and the full sweep of 20th century American economic history.

Alex's article below!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Schedule Update

(00:26...

Ioan Grillo has spent decades on the ground in Mexico watching the cartels evolve, and his assessment is sobering. Violence has shifted form more than it's receded. Governments change rhetoric, not reality. The U.S. is more involved than anyone admits. And Sheinbaum is threading a needle between Washington's pressure and Mexican sovereignty. A conversation you won't find anywhere else.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(01:33) - Name Pronunciation

(02:46) - How Cartels Evolved

(03:35) - Violence Plateau Explained

(08:04) - Homicide Stats vs Reality

(10:01...

Our favorite military analyst, Sim Tack, returns to the pod to assess three different conflicts reshaping global security. In Ukraine, territorial gains are tactical, not strategic; Russian economic endurance remains the real variable. In Iran, a degraded military has reached a stalemate the U.S. and Israel cannot break without regime change. And in Mali, a jihadist advance is threatening to create a new territorial caliphate... with Russia's failed security guarantee quietly accelerating the collapse.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(01:08) - Sim is Back

(01:56) - Is the World Overwhelming?

Jacob sits down for a fantastic conversation with author and analyst Dror Poleg to explore how AI is reshaping work, value, and the economy. They unpack why AI is better understood as a medium than a tool, what the shift from tangible to intangible assets means for investors, and why the dynamics of show business now govern every industry - from oil to politics.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introooo

(01:27) - Twitter and the Text Commons

(04:16) - AI Metaphors Tool or Medium

(07:58) - How LLMs Actually Think

(16:04...

Peru has had seven presidents in nine years, homicides have nearly doubled, and extortion is up sixfold - and yet the country just tried to buy $3.5 billion worth of F-16s. Elohim Monard returns to diagnose a political crisis that doubles as a case study in great-power failure. From "gross diplomacy" on social media to a runoff framed as "cancer versus HIV," Peru is caught between Washington and Beijing with no strategy of its own.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(00:37) - Gross Diplomacy Sparks

(01:51) - US Diplomatic...

Josh Linville,VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, chats with Jacob about the global fertilizer crisis triggered by disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. They cover why the Middle East dominates fertilizer supply, why the US can't easily fill the gap, which crops and regions are most at risk, and what farmers should do right now to protect themselves.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(01:15) - War Context and Stakes

(02:22) - Fertilizer 101 Big Three

(03:36) - Why Hormuz Matters

(04:55) - Middle East Gas Advantage

(06:12) - Why US...

Josef Schachter - President of Schachter Energy - walks us through what global oil markets looked like the day before bombs started falling, and what the math looks like now. Prices were already heading higher, the conflict accelerated the timeline, and the U.S. can't drill its way out of a closed Strait of Hormuz. Jacob and Josef also get into Canada's structural advantage, why markets are still surprisingly calm, and what a prolonged conflict means for the global economy. Tune in for more :)

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:36) - Prewar Oil...

Kabir Taneja, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, joins the podcast for an Indian perspective on the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Jacob and Kabir discuss how ordinary Indians are feeling the economic anxiety of potential energy shortages, India's long-standing policy of non-alignment in the Middle East, its deep ties with Gulf states, and why any lasting regional resolution will ultimately require Iran's security buy-in.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:57) - Global Economy Worries

(01:40) - Meet Kabir Taneja

(02:02) - ORF Middle East Explained

(03:26...

Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro rejoins the pod for a candid conversation about the Iran War and its ripple effects on global markets, military strategy, and U.S. geopolitical standing. Jacob and Chase discuss escalation dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, the psychology of both leaderships, and what a realistic off-ramp might look like. They close out on the topic of U.S. competitiveness - covering energy policy, education investment, human capital, and the looming threat of nuclear proliferation.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(01:21) - War Anxiety and Cash Question

Jacob sits down with Laurie McFarlane, co-director of Future Economy Scotland, for a (non-Gulf War related, finally) conversation about what makes Scotland one of the more fascinating geopolitical underdogs around. The two dig into Scotland's constrained economic agency within the UK, the squandered promise of North Sea oil, the renewable energy transition, and why Scotland - like much of Europe - risks sleepwalking into managed decline.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome And Setup

(01:30) - Why Scotland Now

(02:35) - Future Economy Scotland Origins

(05:54) - Early Impact And Strategy

Solo analysis from Jacob! Some reflection on being wrong about the Third Gulf War. Jacob outlines why he thought the war wouldn't happen - interceptor shortages, domestic politics, inflation risk, and explains what's shaken his analytical framework: the killing of moderate Iranian leaders, the appointment of a hardline Supreme Leader, the U.S. confusing firepower for strategy, and, of course, allies refusing to cooperate.

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Timestamps:

(00:27) - Why No US Attack

(02:15) - Iran Geography Leverage

(02:56) - US Politics Inflation Risk

(05:19) - Noninterventionist Contradiction

(06:26) - War...

Jacob Shapiro sits down with journalist Jody Ray, who just returned from on-the-ground reporting in Ethiopia and Eritrea. This convo is a gateway into one of the most underreported conflicts brewing today - a potential war over Red Sea access with echoes of Cold War rivalries, ethnic fracture lines, and a region that's been through hell once already.

If you enjoyed the conversation, check out more of Jody's work below!

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Timestamps:

(01:22) - Meet Jodi in Nairobi

(01:38) - Why Ethiopia Matters

(03:20) - Ethiopia Basics

(05:44...

Jacob sets down the grand strategy for a gripping personal story, catching up with his high school friend Avi Swerdlow, who landed in Israel the day before the new Gulf War erupted. Avi recounts waking to sirens, sheltering with his mother, and navigating a closed airspace in a circuitous scramble to get home - a reminder that geopolitics is always personal.

Note: If you know anyone in a Gulf or Middle Eastern state who has had to scramble in a similar way, or is experiencing the war on the ground, please connect us! We would love to...

Iran expert Hamidreza Azizi joins Jacob Shapiro to break down the issues posed by Iran's blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Azizi explains Iran's phased strategy: take out US radar systems first, then threaten energy infrastructure. He also unpacks who's actually running Tehran right now, why China and Russia are quietly helping, and why no optimistic scenario exists for Iran's long-term future.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(00:41) - War Week Context

(01:56) - Reza Returns

(02:50) - How Long Can It Last

(08:02) - Damage and...

Geopolitical analyst Kamran Bokhari joins Jacob to break down the US/Israeli joint strike on Iran.

Is this regime change, or coercion? Bokhari argues the limited force deployment points to a "Venezuela model" - targeting IRGC hardliners while preserving moderate military figures to negotiate a nuclear deal. But... Has the moment for regime collapse has already passed? The two also explore the regional fallout: Kurdish mobilization, Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions, and the risk of Iranian state collapse cascading across Eurasia.

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Timestamps:

(00:43) - Iran Response And Targets

(01:08) - Decapitation And Cyber...

North Dakota State Climatologist Daryl Ritcheson joins the show for his annual check-in about the climate (our fourth???) - He and Jacob revisit last year’s forecast misses and hits before diving into 2026. They explore the transition from La Niña to El Niño, implications for U.S. agriculture, hurricane risk in the Gulf, and crop prospects in South America and the Black Sea. The discussion then widens into a candid debate over sea level rise, extreme weather trends, and climate data interpretation... Highlighting disagreements, long-term cycles, and the importance of questioning assumptions in an era of clickbait and...

Louis-Vincent Gave joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to unpack a world that looks chaotic... but may be quietly reordering itself. From a surprising thaw in U.S.–China relations to a potential renaissance in Latin America and Canada, Louis argues that today’s volatility is accelerating deeper structural shifts. He explains why Europe remains fragmented, why energy prices could derail everything, and why investors may be thinking about risk all wrong.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome & Introducing Louis Gave (Gavekal Research)

(02:43) - Liberation Day Shocks

(05:02) - China De‑Westernizing Supply Chains...

Something extraordinary just happened in Japan... but of course no one is paying attention!

A ruling party written off as tired and scandal-plagued didn’t just win - they delivered a generational landslide. Sanae Takaichi, Japan's first female Prime Minister, led her Liberal Democrats into a victory so complete that the opposition straight up imploded (see: winning 2/3 of Parliament). At the center of the dust cloud stands a leader arguing Japan must harden itself for a dangerous world: rebuild industry, rearm, and rely on no one but itself. This isn’t incremental politics. It’s a bet on nat...

Hamidreza Azizi joins the pod for an emergency episode on the current state of Iran amidst escalating tensions with the United States. Azizi examines the potential for conflict between the two and and offers insights into Iran's internal politics, the role of the IRGC, and the possible repercussions of a U.S. attack.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:46) - Iran's Domestic Situation

(02:44) - US-Iran Tensions and Military Movements

(04:08) - Iran's Response and Internal Dynamics

(09:41) - Potential Scenarios and Outcomes

(28:31) - Iran's Military Capabilities and...

Jacob sits down with agricultural economist Dr. David Kohl to unpack what a brutal downturn in farm profitability reveals about globalization, capital concentration, labor shortages, and long-term economic resilience. The two touch on tariffs, debt, and the limits of export-led growth, and then the conversation widens to examine how technology, demographics, and financial fragility are reshaping both rural America and the national economy.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:56) - Discussion on US Ag Economy

(02:17) - Challenges and Opportunities in Agriculture

(07:09) - Land Values and Institutional Investments

(12:24...

Andrey Sizov, a Black Sea agricultural markets, joins the pod to talk about about why the Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted global grain trade far less than expected - and why that may be changing. Jacob and Sizov examine recent attacks on shipping, the fragile balance keeping Black Sea exports moving, and how escalation could ripple through wheat, corn, energy markets, and global food security. Of course, they also tie in Iran, China’s commodity buying, and what geopolitical risk really means for global agriculture.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:24) - Black Sea Ge...

Economist Mike Konczal joins the show to unpack the escalating pressure campaign against the Federal Reserve, new inflation data, and what all of this means for the U.S. economy. Jacob and Mike discuss whether Trump’s confrontation with Jerome Powell is genuinely dangerous, how tariffs and immigration policy are shaping prices and growth, and why the labor market looks weaker beneath the surface. Mike is more cautiously optimistic than we expected - but the downside risks remain real.

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Timestamps:

(01:26) - Fed and Executive Branch Dynamics

(05:49) - Economic Consequences and Ma...

Shock, instability, climate stress, financial panic, political rupture: the question isn’t who avoids disruption, but who absorbs it and keeps moving. Jacob invites on Parag Khanna of AlphaGeo to wrestle with a harder metric than dominance or growth - resilience. What actually allows states, systems, and societies to adapt when the rules keep changing? Shapiro and Khanna explore the events driving this week's headlines (Venezuela, Iran, Greenland) and dive into the underlying systems that actually determine outcomes: resilience, adaptation, and the capacity to recover when shocks pile up.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

Venezuela has become the flashpoint for a new era of American hard power - not just a regime change, but a raw assertion of dominance over the "backyard." Elohim Monard graces the pod with his presence once more as the U.S. treats a sovereign nation like a criminal organization to secure global oil markets, and the ideological fractures across Latin America deepen. Is this the beginning of a peaceful transition or the birth of ten years of chaos? This moment forces a reckoning: what happens when stability is traded for extraction, when ideology gives way to brute pragmatism...

Jacob takes on the U.S. seizure of Nicolás Maduro and what it reveals about American power, imperial strategy, and hemispheric priorities. This was less about China or narco-trafficking and more of than a blunt assertion of control over resources and geography. Venezuela is a test case, possibly a rehearsal, for deeper U.S. intervention in the Western Hemisphere, especially Cuba, and a sign of Washington consolidating power closer to home as its global leverage erodes.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Episode Announcement

(00:49) - Background on US-Venezuela Relations

What if the money in your pocket wasn’t a tool for freedom, but a mechanism for control? Inflation, surveillance, and financial exclusion actively shape who can save, speak, or participate in the global economy. Alex Gladstein joins the show to examine money as a human-rights issue, exploring how new digital tools are being used in places where traditional financial systems fail or are weaponized. Alex reframes money as a human-rights issue - tracing how digital currencies are reshaping power at the margins: enabling dissidents, protecting savings, and creating escape hatches from broken systems. It’s not about speculation or h...

Elohim Monard joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to discuss Latin America.

A massive geopolitical integration in LatAm is quietly underway, fueled by a "Trumpian" rightward shift sweeping from the Southern Cone to the Rio Grande. As traditional alliances fracture, a new "practical ideology" is emerging to unite the hemisphere through hard-fist security tactics and aggressive economic pragmatism.

But beneath this surface-level alignment lies a volatile paradox: a burgeoning "low-intensity war" targeting non-state actors as a pretext for permanent emergency. From the weaponization of fentanyl to state-sanctioned privateers, the line between regional stability and calculated chaos...

Power gets loud when it’s insecure. Strategy becomes theater. And ideology sneaks in wearing policy jargon. The White House's newest U.S. National Security Strategy claims realism while quietly demanding dominance, preaching restraint while laying groundwork for escalation. Civilizational panic collides with imperial muscle, producing a document that wants everything, everywhere, all at once.

Van Jackson, Professor of International Relations at Victoria University of Wellington, sits down with Jacob Shapiro to chat about how culture war thinking seeps into grand strategy, why “prioritization” turns into mission creep, and what this blueprint signals for allies, adversaries, and a worl...

Book episode!

What happens when a policy meant to shape a nation reaches into the most intimate corners of a family’s life? Journalist Barbara Demick'sDaughters of the Bamboo Grove becomes a prism for a China where babies vanish, families fracture, and two identical lives grow up worlds apart. One twin speaks Mandarin, the other English. One hides in a bamboo grove; the other lands in Texas. Demick joins The Jacob Shapiro Show to explore the lives shaped, and misshaped, by China's restrictive one-child policy. Shapiro and Demick probe the emotional aftershocks of separation, the uneasy collision of...

As global finance strains under shifting power structures, author and fintech thinker Emmanuel Daniel, founder of TAB Global, argues that the real disruption isn’t technological - it’s personal. This episode explores finance as a geopolitical arena where identity, data, and sovereignty reshape who holds leverage. What happens when individuals, not institutions, become the organizing unit of the monetary system? And how does that rewire cross-border power, trust, and risk? A provocative look at the future architecture of money.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:15) - Emmanuel Daniel's Book and Key Insights

Tariffs promise protection but unleash deeper shocks - reshaping demand, distorting prices, and testing the resilience of an already-strained economic system. Rob Larity and Jacob unpack the widening gap between political narratives and material reality, probing how erratic policy, volatile markets, and institutional guardrails collide. They ask whether the U.S. is entering a new era of economic fragility, what signals truly matter beneath the noise, and how global outliers like Chile reveal the stakes of navigating a fractured, multipolar world.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:46) - Discussion on San Francisco Fed...

China’s rise is often framed as a geopolitical contest, but Kaiser Y Kuo, host of the Sinica Podcast, pushes us to confront something deeper: what if China’s transformation exposes the West’s blind spots about modernity, power, and progress itself? Jacob and Kaiser wrestle with uncomfortable parallels between America’s Gilded Age and China’s present, the myths we cling to about innovation and identity, and the way global narratives harden into self-soothing fictions. It’s a challenge to rethink both China - and ourselves.

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Referenced in the Show:

Kaiser's "Great Reckon...

Aging quietly shapes everything - our economies, our politics, our families, and the horizon of what nations can become. Jacob and longevity expert Dylan Livingston, founder of the Alliance for Longevity Initiatives (A4LI), take a dive into the emerging science that treats aging not as fate, but as a solvable biological problem with staggering geopolitical consequences. The two explore how extending healthy human life could transform productivity, rebalance global power, upend healthcare economics, and challenge long-held assumptions about decline. At its core is a question: what happens when longevity becomes a public policy frontier, not a personal fantasy?<...

Technological revolutions rarely unfold the way we imagine. From the steam engine to AI, each wave reshapes who creates value - and who gets left behind. What if artificial intelligence isn’t a revolution at all, but a late-stage innovation like shipping containers - transforming efficiency without changing the underlying system? Jerry Neumann joins the Jacob Shapiro Podcast and questions whether openness still drives progress, whether innovation can survive without risk, and why the next great leap forward might not be digital, but something we haven’t yet learned to see.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - In...

As the Supreme Court takes up one of the most consequential trade cases in decades, former Biden administration official and Yale-trained lawyer Peter Harrell joins Jacob L. for a real-time breakdown of what’s at stake. Together, they cut through the legal jargon to reveal how a 1977 emergency powers statute became the foundation for Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime—and why the Court’s decision could reshape U.S. trade, markets, and global power. A crash course in law, economics, and political brinkmanship.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:45) - Supreme Court and Tari...

South Korea stands at the crossroads of global power - caught between China, the United States, Japan, and its unpredictable neighbor to the north. Jacob Shapiro and Professor Jeffrey Robertson unpack how a nation long described as “the shrimp among whales” has learned to navigate the world’s toughest geopolitical waters. From shifting alliances and nuclear restraint to the economic promise of unification, this episode reveals how Korea’s pragmatism may shape the future of Asia.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:45) - Professor Jeff Robinson

(02:08) - Jeff's Background and Experience in South...

When U.S. aircraft carriers appear off Venezuela’s coast, it’s not just saber-rattling - it’s a mirror held up to a century of empire. Jacob and LatAm analyst Elohim Monard dissect what’s really driving Washington’s renewed aggression in the Caribbean, from Trump and Rubio’s internal power struggle - to the shadow of China, the lure of oil, and the global rise of hard-line politics. Together, they trace the fault lines connecting Venezuela, Argentina, Peru, and the United States... and ask whether a new “right-wing international” is already reshaping the Americas.

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Timestamps...