The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Economist Mike Konczal joins the show to unpack the escalating pressure campaign against the Federal Reserve, new inflation data, and what all of this means for the U.S. economy. Jacob and Mike discuss whether Trump’s confrontation with Jerome Powell is genuinely dangerous, how tariffs and immigration policy are shaping prices and growth, and why the labor market looks weaker beneath the surface. Mike is more cautiously optimistic than we expected - but the downside risks remain real.

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Timestamps:

(01:26) - Fed and Executive Branch Dynamics

(05:49) - Economic Consequences and Ma...

Shock, instability, climate stress, financial panic, political rupture: the question isn’t who avoids disruption, but who absorbs it and keeps moving. Jacob invites on Parag Khanna of AlphaGeo to wrestle with a harder metric than dominance or growth - resilience. What actually allows states, systems, and societies to adapt when the rules keep changing? Shapiro and Khanna explore the events driving this week's headlines (Venezuela, Iran, Greenland) and dive into the underlying systems that actually determine outcomes: resilience, adaptation, and the capacity to recover when shocks pile up.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

Venezuela has become the flashpoint for a new era of American hard power - not just a regime change, but a raw assertion of dominance over the "backyard." Elohim Monard graces the pod with his presence once more as the U.S. treats a sovereign nation like a criminal organization to secure global oil markets, and the ideological fractures across Latin America deepen. Is this the beginning of a peaceful transition or the birth of ten years of chaos? This moment forces a reckoning: what happens when stability is traded for extraction, when ideology gives way to brute pragmatism...

Jacob takes on the U.S. seizure of Nicolás Maduro and what it reveals about American power, imperial strategy, and hemispheric priorities. This was less about China or narco-trafficking and more of than a blunt assertion of control over resources and geography. Venezuela is a test case, possibly a rehearsal, for deeper U.S. intervention in the Western Hemisphere, especially Cuba, and a sign of Washington consolidating power closer to home as its global leverage erodes.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Episode Announcement

(00:49) - Background on US-Venezuela Relations

What if the money in your pocket wasn’t a tool for freedom, but a mechanism for control? Inflation, surveillance, and financial exclusion actively shape who can save, speak, or participate in the global economy. Alex Gladstein joins the show to examine money as a human-rights issue, exploring how new digital tools are being used in places where traditional financial systems fail or are weaponized. Alex reframes money as a human-rights issue - tracing how digital currencies are reshaping power at the margins: enabling dissidents, protecting savings, and creating escape hatches from broken systems. It’s not about speculation or h...

Elohim Monard joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to discuss Latin America.

A massive geopolitical integration in LatAm is quietly underway, fueled by a "Trumpian" rightward shift sweeping from the Southern Cone to the Rio Grande. As traditional alliances fracture, a new "practical ideology" is emerging to unite the hemisphere through hard-fist security tactics and aggressive economic pragmatism.

But beneath this surface-level alignment lies a volatile paradox: a burgeoning "low-intensity war" targeting non-state actors as a pretext for permanent emergency. From the weaponization of fentanyl to state-sanctioned privateers, the line between regional stability and calculated chaos...

Power gets loud when it’s insecure. Strategy becomes theater. And ideology sneaks in wearing policy jargon. The White House's newest U.S. National Security Strategy claims realism while quietly demanding dominance, preaching restraint while laying groundwork for escalation. Civilizational panic collides with imperial muscle, producing a document that wants everything, everywhere, all at once.

Van Jackson, Professor of International Relations at Victoria University of Wellington, sits down with Jacob Shapiro to chat about how culture war thinking seeps into grand strategy, why “prioritization” turns into mission creep, and what this blueprint signals for allies, adversaries, and a worl...

Book episode!

What happens when a policy meant to shape a nation reaches into the most intimate corners of a family’s life? Journalist Barbara Demick'sDaughters of the Bamboo Grove becomes a prism for a China where babies vanish, families fracture, and two identical lives grow up worlds apart. One twin speaks Mandarin, the other English. One hides in a bamboo grove; the other lands in Texas. Demick joins The Jacob Shapiro Show to explore the lives shaped, and misshaped, by China's restrictive one-child policy. Shapiro and Demick probe the emotional aftershocks of separation, the uneasy collision of...

As global finance strains under shifting power structures, author and fintech thinker Emmanuel Daniel, founder of TAB Global, argues that the real disruption isn’t technological - it’s personal. This episode explores finance as a geopolitical arena where identity, data, and sovereignty reshape who holds leverage. What happens when individuals, not institutions, become the organizing unit of the monetary system? And how does that rewire cross-border power, trust, and risk? A provocative look at the future architecture of money.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:15) - Emmanuel Daniel's Book and Key Insights

Tariffs promise protection but unleash deeper shocks - reshaping demand, distorting prices, and testing the resilience of an already-strained economic system. Rob Larity and Jacob unpack the widening gap between political narratives and material reality, probing how erratic policy, volatile markets, and institutional guardrails collide. They ask whether the U.S. is entering a new era of economic fragility, what signals truly matter beneath the noise, and how global outliers like Chile reveal the stakes of navigating a fractured, multipolar world.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:46) - Discussion on San Francisco Fed...

China’s rise is often framed as a geopolitical contest, but Kaiser Y Kuo, host of the Sinica Podcast, pushes us to confront something deeper: what if China’s transformation exposes the West’s blind spots about modernity, power, and progress itself? Jacob and Kaiser wrestle with uncomfortable parallels between America’s Gilded Age and China’s present, the myths we cling to about innovation and identity, and the way global narratives harden into self-soothing fictions. It’s a challenge to rethink both China - and ourselves.

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Referenced in the Show:

Kaiser's "Great Reckon...

Aging quietly shapes everything - our economies, our politics, our families, and the horizon of what nations can become. Jacob and longevity expert Dylan Livingston, founder of the Alliance for Longevity Initiatives (A4LI), take a dive into the emerging science that treats aging not as fate, but as a solvable biological problem with staggering geopolitical consequences. The two explore how extending healthy human life could transform productivity, rebalance global power, upend healthcare economics, and challenge long-held assumptions about decline. At its core is a question: what happens when longevity becomes a public policy frontier, not a personal fantasy?<...

Technological revolutions rarely unfold the way we imagine. From the steam engine to AI, each wave reshapes who creates value - and who gets left behind. What if artificial intelligence isn’t a revolution at all, but a late-stage innovation like shipping containers - transforming efficiency without changing the underlying system? Jerry Neumann joins the Jacob Shapiro Podcast and questions whether openness still drives progress, whether innovation can survive without risk, and why the next great leap forward might not be digital, but something we haven’t yet learned to see.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - In...

As the Supreme Court takes up one of the most consequential trade cases in decades, former Biden administration official and Yale-trained lawyer Peter Harrell joins Jacob L. for a real-time breakdown of what’s at stake. Together, they cut through the legal jargon to reveal how a 1977 emergency powers statute became the foundation for Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime—and why the Court’s decision could reshape U.S. trade, markets, and global power. A crash course in law, economics, and political brinkmanship.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:45) - Supreme Court and Tari...

South Korea stands at the crossroads of global power - caught between China, the United States, Japan, and its unpredictable neighbor to the north. Jacob Shapiro and Professor Jeffrey Robertson unpack how a nation long described as “the shrimp among whales” has learned to navigate the world’s toughest geopolitical waters. From shifting alliances and nuclear restraint to the economic promise of unification, this episode reveals how Korea’s pragmatism may shape the future of Asia.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:45) - Professor Jeff Robinson

(02:08) - Jeff's Background and Experience in South...

When U.S. aircraft carriers appear off Venezuela’s coast, it’s not just saber-rattling - it’s a mirror held up to a century of empire. Jacob and LatAm analyst Elohim Monard dissect what’s really driving Washington’s renewed aggression in the Caribbean, from Trump and Rubio’s internal power struggle - to the shadow of China, the lure of oil, and the global rise of hard-line politics. Together, they trace the fault lines connecting Venezuela, Argentina, Peru, and the United States... and ask whether a new “right-wing international” is already reshaping the Americas.

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Timestamps...

When a Brazilian payment system threatens U.S. credit-card profits, it exposes a deeper fracture in the global economy: sovereignty versus rent-seeking, innovation versus control. Jacob and Rob trace the fight over PIX from Brasília to Washington and beyond -into currency wars, trade tantrums, and the strange new politics of the Western Hemisphere. What does it mean when the world’s “rules-based order” starts punishing countries for building better systems?

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview

(00:50) - Halloween in Paris vs. New Orleans

(01:40) - Current Events and Volatil...

Japan rewired its politics: a power shift, a woman at the helm, and a minority government forced to bargain for every vote. What follows when high approval collides with hard math - aging demographics, weak yen, and defense budgets racing past old taboos?

Analyst Tobias Harris, author of The Iconoclast and writer of Observing Japan, joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to unpack the country’s most surprising election in years - one that produced its first female prime minister and a government held together by negotiation. Expect sharper debates on security, energy, food, and China ties, with So...

Gold prices are soaring, private equity is unraveling, and data centers have become the next speculative frontier. Beneath all of it lies a simple question: what happens when faith in liquidity, stability, and infinite growth begins to fray? From central banks hoarding bullion to insurers gambling on AI infrastructure, the same story unfolds—risk disguised as resilience. And somewhere between coffee tariffs and capital flows, you can glimpse the new shape of a global economy learning to live without certainty.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:03) - Catch-Up and Current Events

(02:09...

What if money could make you freer instead of more dependent? Matt McClintock joins the pod to dive into Bitcoin’s evolution from digital experiment to geopolitical force - a technology challenging governments, redefining sovereignty, and reshaping how value moves across the world. Matt and Jacob explore what “freedom money” really means, why personal sovereignty now collides with state power, and how the struggle between fiat and crypto reveals the future of economics, trust, and control in a multipolar world.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview

(00:20) - Addressing Listener Concerns

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Jacob Shapiro is joined by Matt Pines, Executive Director of the Bitcoin Policy Institute, to discuss the accelerating convergence of Bitcoin, AI, geopolitics, and energy. Pines argues that technological change is happening faster than existing frameworks can manage, pushing once-fringe ideas into mainstream policy debates. They explore how AI and Bitcoin are straining U.S. infrastructure, particularly the electrical grid, and what this means for national security and economic stability. The discussion also considers the rise of “techno-feudal” elites, political backlash risks, and whether America can maintain an edge against China’s state-driven infrastructure build-out. Pines closes with reflections on Bit...

Jacob Shapiro reconnects with Chase Taylor (of Pinecone Macro) for a wide-ranging conversation on U.S. competitiveness. The two dig into why electricity costs, labor shortages, and weak industrial policy matter far more than endless chatter about tariffs or rate cuts. They trade scenarios on how soaring power demand, grid fragility, and demographic decline could shape America’s future against China. Along the way, they touch on robots, nearshoring to Mexico, farm policy, and why simple, obvious analysis is often the most powerful

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:43) - Contrarian Views on US...

Jacob steps away from his usual roster of experts to bring listeners a first-person account from Kathmandu. Law student and human rights scholar Prasansha Rimal reflects on Nepal’s fragile democracy, its youth-led protests, and the deeper frustration with corruption and stagnant politics. She describes how social media both sparked dissent and revealed inequality, while broader grievances fueled unrest. Jacob underscores the courage of her testimony, noting that her perspective adds invaluable, if subjective, insight into Nepal’s ongoing political transformation

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview

(03:21) - Introducing Prasansha Rima...

Jacob and Rob reunite after a long break, tracing the threads between a dizzying run of global events and markets that seem strangely calm. Jacob frames the conversation with parallels to the 1920s, questioning whether today’s mix of political volatility, speculative fervor, and rapid technological change echoes past cycles of boom and fracture. Alongside Rob’s market perspective, he explores AI’s slowdown, labor shortages, and the looming electricity crunch, before pulling the discussion toward deeper questions of resilience, innovation, and Bitcoin’s place in geopolitics.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome

(00...

Jacob Shapiro sits down with Jacek Bartosiak, founder of Strategy&Future, to discuss Russia’s drone incursions into Polish airspace and their broader implications. From Warsaw’s perspective, deterrence has failed, pushing debate toward a “politics of punishment.” Bartosiak outlines the fracturing of NATO credibility, the rise of an Intermarium bloc from the Baltics to Turkey, and Ukraine’s surprising military innovations. Together, they explore how Poland, Ukraine, and regional allies may reshape Europe’s security landscape amid U.S. retreat.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction

(00:22) - Current Geopolitical Tensions in...

After a month-long hiatus recovering from illness, Jacob Shapiro returns to the podcast joined by recurring guest Elohim Monard. Together, they examine the transactional nature of U.S.–Latin America relations, debating whether the region is part of a declining American empire and how leaders like Claudia Sheinbaum and Lula navigate Washington’s shifting policies. Their discussion ranges from Brazil’s geopolitical role to Venezuela’s fragility, highlighting the Latin Americanization of U.S. politics and the uncertain trajectory of American power

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro & Personal Update

(00:59) - Elohim and Conversa...

Jacob and Rob dig into Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, exposing the political theater surrounding government data. They explore labor hoarding, CPI distortions, and the fragility of public statistical institutions in a polarized, AI-saturated world. The conversation spans historical context, philosophical takes on truth and data, and the coming war for proprietary information. They close with a baffling shift in U.S.-India trade policy—and a call for help understanding what the hell is going on.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:44) - Employment Data

(02:42) - Tr...

Jacob Shapiro sits down with Luke Gromen for a wide-ranging discussion about AI’s disruption, the U.S. fiscal outlook, and global power dynamics. Jacob noted that AI is rapidly commoditizing data and could upend white-collar industries, but he and Luke agreed that intuition and discerning quality data points remain critical. They dug into Europe’s strategic weaknesses, the U.S.-China rivalry, and vulnerabilities in supply chains like rare earths. On the U.S. fiscal front, Luke argued that the government must financially repress bondholders, with stablecoins potentially becoming a tool for yield curve control. They closed with a lo...

Jacob interviews Dr. Van Jackson, an international relations scholar specializing in East Asian and Pacific security. They discuss the accelerating pace and volatility of U.S. foreign policy, characterizing Trump-era actions as part of a broader counter-revolutionary, oligarchic project. Van critiques both major U.S. parties and highlights the risk of diversionary wars as legitimacy crises grow. They explore the geopolitics of Iran, Israel, and China, and conclude with insights on North Korea and potential U.S. troop withdrawal from South Korea, outlining a rare “win-win-win” scenario for all parties on the Korean Peninsula.

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Time...

Jacob welcomes economic policy expert Mike Konczal for a wide-ranging conversation on American capitalism, industrial policy, and the evolving role of the state. They explore how the Biden administration’s economic agenda challenges decades of neoliberal orthodoxy, discuss the implications of increased public investment, and examine what it means to have a “pro-worker” economy. Konczal brings deep insight into the politics and pragmatics of economic reform, offering a nuanced look at the shifting landscape of U.S. economic policymaking.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction

(00:17) - Disclaimer and Encouragement to Listen...

Jacob and Rob Larity dive deep into U.S. interest rate dynamics, focusing on Jerome Powell, Trump’s criticism of the Fed, and the potential political and market-driven forces affecting rate decisions. They explore Fed mechanics, historical precedent for presidential interference, and potential appointments like Scott Bessent. They also examine the inflationary impact of trade policy, tariff theatrics, and global economic slowdown signals. The episode concludes with Rob’s investment outlook—bearish on bonds, cautious on equities, and optimistic about international and niche small-cap opportunities.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:13) - Discussion on Int...

Jacob Shapiro speaks with Fahd Humayun about the shifting geopolitical dynamics in South Asia and the Middle East. They discuss Pakistan’s perspective on the Iran-Israel conflict, U.S.-Pakistan relations under a potential second Trump term, and the strategic implications of Pakistan’s recent military and diplomatic moves. The conversation also explores India-Pakistan tensions, the lowering threshold for military escalation, the role of China in regional alliances, and the internal political challenges facing Pakistan. Humayun emphasizes the need for regional diplomacy, stability, and cautious optimism about Pakistan’s political and democratic future.

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Timestamps:

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Jacob Shapiro and Rob Larity discuss the recent Israel-Iran conflict and its geopolitical impacts, including President Trump's ceasefire announcement. They analyze the muted market reactions, particularly oil's price drop, despite heightened tensions. The conversation then explores significant shifts in U.S.-Japan relations, highlighting Japan's rising outward investments as indicative of strategic realignments. Finally, Jacob and Rob reflect on navigating uncertainty, advocating long-term strategic thinking over reactive trading, and emphasizing the importance of preserving mental clarity amid rapid global changes.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(04:51) - Markets!

(16:04) - Japan's Economic...

Jacob Shapiro sits down with Facundo Robles, Program Coordinator at the Wilson Center’s Latin America Program, for a wide-ranging conversation on how the Israel-Iran conflict intersects with Latin America’s geopolitical and economic realities. They unpack why Latin America remains relatively stable amid global volatility, and how rising oil, fertilizer, and agricultural prices might impact countries like Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. The conversation weaves through U.S.-China competition, Argentina’s foreign policy under Milei, and Venezuela’s provocative posturing.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(04:03) - Impact of Israel-Iran War on Latin Am...

In this episode, Jacob speaks with Japan analyst Tobias Harris to unpack rising tensions in U.S.-Japan trade relations amid the Trump administration’s tariff blitz. They explore how Japan—historically a close U.S. ally—is reacting to unclear demands, internal U.S. policy chaos, and the potential collapse of trust in American economic leadership. Tobias breaks down the limits of personal diplomacy, the legacy of Shinzo Abe, and why Japan is quietly building plan B trade alliances. They also cover Japan-China relations, a political shift in South Korea, and how domestic rice prices could determine Prime Minist...

Jacob Shapiro is joined by Middle East expert Kamran Bokhari to analyze the rapidly unfolding Israeli military strikes on Iran. They discuss the strategic implications of Israel’s targeted attacks on IRGC leadership, the potential for regime instability in Tehran, and the calculus behind Washington’s response. Bokhari introduces the concept of “evolutionary regime change” and outlines scenarios ranging from internal coups to regional realignment. Together, they explore whether Israel’s aim is nuclear deterrence or regime collapse, and what options remain for an Iranian response. It’s a fast-moving, high-stakes conversation on Middle Eastern geopolitics.

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Timesta...

Jacob Shapiro speaks with Iranian security expert Hamidreza Azizi to unpack Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iran. They explore the strategic implications of Israel’s multi-phase assault, including the assassination of top IRGC commanders, the targeting of nuclear and missile infrastructure, and the collapse of Iran’s proxy network. Azizi outlines Iran’s limited options—from potential retaliation to a pivot toward nuclear armament—and discusses the psychological warfare at play. With U.S. involvement uncertain and regional dynamics shifting, this conversation offers a critical framework for understanding one of the most volatile escalations in the Middle East in recent memor...

Jacob and Rob respond to listener feedback about negativity by focusing on positive trends, including declining violent crime and drug overdose rates in the U.S. They then dive into a high-level exploration of stablecoins—what they are, why they matter, and the potential risks and geopolitical implications of their rise. They compare the U.S. approach to stablecoins with the digital currency strategies of China and the EU, unpack the difference between innovation and systemic risk, and ask whether the erosion of trust in financial systems is worth the trade-off. A thoughtful, wide-ranging conversation on money, power, and vo...

Jacob welcomes Sim Tack, a military analyst at Force Analysis, to break down the shifting battlefield dynamics in Ukraine. Together, they unpack Ukraine’s evolving tactics, Russia’s slow but grinding advances, and the logistical and manpower challenges both sides face. Jacob pushes for a bigger picture: what this phase of the war tells us about the future of U.S. involvement, Europe’s strategic posture, and why the world should be watching Eastern Ukraine more closely. Sim offers clarity without sensationalism, grounding the conversation in facts, maps, and on-the-ground realities. It's a sobering, sharp look at a war still...

Jacob and Rob dive into the shifting mood in U.S. markets, as post-"Liberation Day" volatility gives way to a more constrained and uncertain fiscal landscape. They unpack the massive implications of the Trump administration’s budget bill, surging yields, and declining investor confidence. The conversation then pivots to Chinese biotech, where Jacob raises the alarm about America’s declining edge in R&D, regulation, and talent retention. What follows is a sobering look at cultural skepticism, institutional decay, and whether the U.S. still believes in scientific progress. It’s glum, sharp, and deeply thoughtful. They promise to be...