Stock Talk

Why can AI stocks fall while earnings estimates rise? Chris Perras examines valuations, AI financing and the debate over a cycle reset or deeper trouble.

A strong S&P 500 doesn’t tell you how every stock is doing. And strong AI demand doesn’t necessarily mean easy financing for the companies building the infrastructure.   In this episode of Stock Talk, Chris Perras of Oak Harvest Financial Group examines the evidence supporting further market gains alongside conditions that warrant closer attention: narrower stock-market participation, higher borrowing costs, and financing pressure affecting parts of the AI ecosystem.   Chris discusses: • How corporate earnings can support the market—and why earnings growth doesn’t guarantee stock returns • What credit spreads reveal about borrowing conditions • Why the effects of higher interest rates c...

Are higher interest rates a red light for stocks—or a warning that needs more context? Chris Perras examines how earnings, valuations, and market breadth can influence the stock-market outlook.   In this episode of Stock Talk from Oak Harvest Financial Group, Chris reviews four pieces of the discussion: historical Fed rate-hike cycles, corporate earnings, midterm election seasonality, and the market’s recovery from its April 2025 lows.   The analysis considers both potential support for stocks and material risks, including valuation pressure, narrow market leadership, and the possibility of weaker earnings or tighter credit conditions. Historical patterns do not predict what happens next. ...

Higher interest rates can put pressure on investment values—but they may also increase the yields available on newly purchased income-producing investments. What does that tradeoff mean for your retirement plan? In this Oak Harvest Roundtable recap, Chris Perras, Troy Sharpe, and Charles discuss how interest rates connect to retirement income, inflation, stock market valuations, and real estate. The conversation looks beyond the headlines to explore why higher rates don’t affect every investment—or every retiree—the same way. In this episode: • Who influences short-term and long-term interest rates • Why higher rates can create both challenges and potential income opportunitie...

Higher interest rates can push down the prices of investments you already own. They can also change the income available from newly purchased bonds and other interest bearing investments. So what does that mean for your retirement plan? In this episode of Stock Talk, Chris Perras explains how higher rates may affect bonds, stock valuations, real estate, annuities, and retirement income planning. He also looks at a key question for retirees: if stocks decline while you’re taking withdrawals, how might your cash and short term bond holdings affect the decisions you face? Chris covers three questions to discuss when re...

The AI boom keeps getting compared to the dot-com bubble. But what if the comparison is right—and the timing is wrong? A Bespoke Investment Group chart compares the Nasdaq after the launch of Netscape in 1994 with the Nasdaq after the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. At a comparable point in the two cycles, today lines up closer to September 1998 than the March 2000 dot-com peak. That doesn’t mean history will repeat. Historical comparisons aren’t forecasts. But it raises an important question: What evidence would tell us this AI cycle is nearing the end—and what evidence would suggest it may stil...

What if artificial intelligence changes the world—but some of today’s leading AI stocks still turn out to be the wrong investments at the wrong prices? In this episode of Stock Talk, Chris Perras looks back at the Dotcom era to explore an important distinction for investors: a technology can transform the economy without every stock connected to that technology delivering great investment returns. The Internet didn’t fail after the Dotcom crash. It went on to reshape commerce, communication, advertising and entertainment. But many technology investors still suffered enormous losses as valuations changed, interest rates rose and market leader...

Artificial intelligence may be the biggest technology story in the market — but the next major investment opportunity connected to AI may not be another AI stock.   As companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta spend hundreds of billions of dollars building AI infrastructure and data centers, they're also creating enormous demand for something much more physical: electricity, copper, steel, transformers, natural gas, uranium, electrical equipment and the infrastructure needed to connect it all.   So what happens if the AI boom eventually creates a materials boom?   In this episode of Stock Talk, we look back at what happened after technology stopped domin...

The S&P 500 has climbed sharply since the market lows of April 2025—but something unusual has happened at the same time: interest rates have also moved higher. So why haven't higher rates stopped the stock market? In this episode of Stock Talk, we break down the tug-of-war between corporate earnings and interest rates and explain why earnings growth has been powerful enough, so far, to overcome the pressure of higher Treasury yields. We also look at what could happen next. Using S&P 500 earnings estimates and different P/E assumptions, we'll walk through several illustrative scenarios for 2027—including what could pote...

An investor can be completely right about the future—and still lose money in the present. That happened during the dot-com boom. The internet really did change the world, but concentrated portfolios, extreme valuations, leverage, and tighter financial conditions still caused enormous investment losses. Now, a similar lesson is emerging from the AI investment cycle. In this video, we compare the dot-com bubble of 1998–2000 with today’s massive AI infrastructure buildout. We examine how a highly successful AI-focused investment strategy reportedly suffered a severe short-term decline, despite being built around a technology trend that may continue growing for years. You’ll learn...

Inflation, interest rates, and energy prices may look like three separate financial risks—but they are deeply connected.   In this episode, Chris Perras of Oak Harvest Financial Group explains how rising energy costs can contribute to inflation, how inflation influences Federal Reserve policy, and how higher interest rates can affect stocks, bonds, cash, and the long-term purchasing power of retirees.   For retirees and those approaching retirement, the biggest danger may not be short-term market volatility. It may be the gradual loss of purchasing power as groceries, prescriptions, insurance premiums, utilities, transportation, and other living expenses continue to rise.   Chris also expla...

What if one of the greatest companies ever built turns out to be a disappointing investment? In this video, I explain why this isn’t really a story about SpaceX—it’s a story about investor expectations, IPO hype, and the price you pay for even the most extraordinary businesses. Drawing on more than 35 years of investment experience, I compare today’s excitement around SpaceX to past market favorites like Amazon, Tesla, and the dot-com era, and show why great companies don't always make great stocks. If you're considering investing in high-profile IPOs or simply want to become a more discipli...

Why are so many Wall Street firms raising their S&P 500 targets, yet the market isn't surging higher? In this week's Stock Talk, I break down the two forces that are keeping the S&P 500 from making a much bigger move despite outstanding corporate earnings. We'll look at why accelerating earnings alone aren't enough when AI-driven capital spending is pressuring free cash flow, and how higher Treasury yields are limiting valuation expansion even as profits grow. I'll explain the relationship between earnings, interest rates, price-to-earnings multiples, and free cash flow in simple terms so you can better understand what is...

Is every jobs report, inflation update, or GDP release really telling investors what they need to know? In this week's Stock Talk, Chris Perras explains why successful investing is not about reacting to every economic headline or trying to predict the next government report. Using the latest employment data as an example, he shows how economic statistics are often revised months later and why headline numbers can paint an incomplete picture. Chris also breaks down the critical difference between correlation and causation, using the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the S&P 500 to illustrate why one chart rarely tells the...

Think you can outsmart the market? Every geopolitical crisis makes investors wonder if it's time to sell, but history tells a different story. In this week's Stock Talk, I explore why headlines surrounding Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Israel, China, and Taiwan often create short-term fear while long-term market performance has historically been driven by corporate earnings and interest rates. Using recent market examples, I explain why successful market timing requires getting two decisions right, when to sell and when to buy back, and why missing the recovery may be far more damaging than living through temporary volatility. If you're a retiree...

The biggest risk in a volatile market may not be the pullback itself, it may be the decisions investors make because of it. In this Stock Talk episode, Chris Perras and Charles Scavone of Oak Harvest Financial Group break down the major forces shaping the second half of 2026, including corporate earnings, peak earnings growth, interest rates, the U.S. dollar, a new Federal Reserve chairman, AI-related capital spending, and the excitement surrounding SpaceX. They also explain why earnings continue to be one of the most important drivers of long-term market performance, why volatility is a normal part of investing, and...

Is the 2026 bull market still intact, or is the harder part of the ride just beginning? In this Stock Talk preview, I walk through Oak Harvest’s Second Half 2026 Market Outlook livestream and explain what investors may want to watch as we move into the back half of the year, including S&P 500 earnings growth, interest rates, inflation expectations, energy prices, AI-driven capital spending, potential Federal Reserve policy changes, and the risk of renewed market volatility. I’ll also preview why our team believes the bull market may remain supported by strong corporate earnings and contained rates, while also acknowledging impo...

Can strong earnings still disappoint investors? In this week’s Stock Talk, I explain why “good” results are not always good enough in today’s stock market.

Is the AI boom becoming the next dot-com bubble? In this video, I compare today’s AI-driven stock market with the 1999–2000 dot-com era, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, semiconductor stocks, Fed policy, inflation, GDP growth, oil prices, and investor psychology. While today’s market has clear dot-com similarities, AI leaders are more profitable and better established than many internet stocks of the late 1990s. For long-term investors, retirees, and pre-retirees, the focus remains the same: stay disciplined, stay diversified, and watch earnings growth.

What does stagflation really mean? Not just the textbook definition of high inflation combined with weak or slowing economic growth, but what it feels like for consumers and investors when essentials like food, energy, and insurance keep rising while wages and job opportunities fail to keep up.

I’m breaking down the latest Q1 2026 earnings season update and why the AI capex boom may still have room to run. I cover accelerating S&P 500 earnings, record profit margins, rising EPS estimates, and how today’s cycle compares to the late-1990s Dotcom capex run. I also explain why higher oil prices and interest rates remain headwinds, but not roadblocks, when earnings growth is this strong.

In this Stock Talk, I bring the focus back to what has historically mattered most for stock prices over time: earnings. While headlines, geopolitics, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policy can create short-term volatility, I walk through current FactSet earnings data showing that many S&P 500 companies are reporting positive earnings and revenue surprises, profit margins remain strong, and leadership is concentrated in areas like technology, materials, financials, and industrials. I also explain why forward earnings estimates may suggest continued acceleration in revenue and EPS growth through 2026, while reminding investors that estimates can change and should not be treated as...

Join me as I ask whether today’s AI investment cycle is truly an “obvious bubble” like the Dot-Com era, or whether the real story is more nuanced. I compare the stall-and-surge period of 1999–2000 with today’s AI acceleration into 2026, focusing on capex spending, the rise of agentic AI, market returns, valuations, and where risk is showing up. While today’s market has echoes of 1999, I explain why the foundation looks stronger this time: AI demand is already real, many leaders are profitable, and much of the speculative risk remains concentrated in private markets rather than public equities. Still, risks are rising a...

In today’s Stock Talk, I take a step back from the headlines and ask a question investors hear in every market cycle: is this time really different, or does it just feel that way? I walk through historical market data from major conflicts like World War II, Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq to show how markets have often recovered faster than emotions would suggest, even during periods of extreme uncertainty. I also explain why today’s environment feels so intense, from war and oil volatility to AI disruption and higher interest rates, while reminding viewers that corrections are a normal part...

What if the AI boom isn’t another dot-com bubble at all, but the next great re-acceleration in markets? In this video, I break down the striking similarities and crucial differences between the 1999 dot-com capex cycle and today’s AI investment surge, including exploding data center demand, the rise of agentic AI, Nvidia’s role, private vs. public market risk, interest rates, and what all of it could mean for stocks, retirement portfolios, and long-term investors. I also explain why I believe we may be in the “7th inning stretch” of this AI cycle, where upside may still remain but risks are...

What if the reason stocks aren’t falling harder in 2026 has less to do with headlines and more to do with what most investors are missing? In this video, I break down why the market has remained surprisingly resilient despite war-driven inflation, geopolitical tension, and elevated volatility, and I show you the three forces I believe are keeping stocks supported: lower consumer sensitivity to energy shocks, strengthening corporate earnings, and the potential for a more flexible Fed. After watching, you’ll walk away with a clearer understanding of what is really driving this market, how to separate short-term fear from long...

This week, I break down why the market feels stuck and what’s really driving it. Stocks have now declined for three straight weeks, but this isn’t a typical selloff. Instead, we’re seeing a grinding, sideways market as inflation pressures quietly build again, led by rising oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East. I’ll explain why the bond market is signaling “higher for longer” interest rates, how energy costs are feeding real-time inflation risk, and what that means for stocks going forward. I also dive into the shift happening in AI, from hype to accountability, and why it s...

I walk through what’s really happening in the market right now after months of volatility, geopolitical headlines, and sideways movement in the S&P 500. In this update, I revisit the two headwinds and two tailwinds we outlined in our 2026 outlook and explain how rising inflation expectations, volatility tied to the presidential cycle, and a six-month market pause may be setting the stage for the next phase of the bull market. I also break down the latest S&P 500 earnings estimates, historical market behavior, and a fascinating comparison between today’s AI-driven cycle and the late-1990s tech boom. While no m...

Wall Street is debating a provocative question this week: If AI continues exceeding expectations, could that actually become bearish for the broader economy? In this video, I walk through a widely discussed scenario analysis from Citrini Research that explores how accelerated AI adoption might pressure white-collar employment, consumer spending, housing, and credit markets by 2027–2028. Importantly, this is not Oak Harvest’s base case view, and the authors themselves describe it as a scenario, not a prediction.   Link to article: https://open.substack.com/pub/citrini/p/2028gic?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web   While most extreme outcomes may never materialize, AI is...

Why is the S&P 500 flat in 2026 while small-cap value stocks and high-dividend sectors are quietly outperforming? In this market update, you’ll gain clarity on what is really happening beneath a calm headline number and why this year has started with one of the widest return dispersions in decades. We walk step by step through the performance differences between growth and value, large caps and small caps, dividend strategies and defensive sectors, then examine what factor rotation and bond market signals may be telling us about shifting economic expectations. Most importantly, you’ll walk away understanding how short-term rotations can...

Is the biggest surprise of 2026 already happening, and almost no one sees it yet?   I break down what investors should be watching in the S&P 500, earnings growth trends, AI-driven capital spending, and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts. You’ll learn how mid-term election cycles typically impact market volatility, what current earnings data may be signaling about valuation compression, and why this year could unfold very differently than many strategists expect.   If you’re age 50 or older and focused on retirement income, portfolio growth, and tax-efficient planning, this video will help you better understand risk, opportunity, and how volatility may create...

Early 2026 market volatility has my attention, despite realized volatility staying low... while the bond and options markets quietly flash warning signs for a choppy first quarter.   Today I'm revisiting why our team expected inflation to cool faster in 2025, driven by easing shelter costs, slowing wages, and productivity gains from AI, while also explaining why goods inflation may reaccelerate short term due to tariffs, reshoring, and higher input costs.   I share what’s keeping me up at night over the next few months, why a potential February Tax Day pullback wouldn’t end the bull market, and why we’d view it as on...

A Key Risk for 2026 emerged quickly. What sparked the sudden market pullback, and how should investors should think about it calmly and clearly? I discuss the impact of renewed tariff tensions, shifting inflation expectations, and why the VIX moved sharply higher, along with what the options and insurance markets may be signaling beneath the surface. Most importantly, I explain why periods of elevated volatility often create opportunity for long-term investors, even when the headlines feel unsettling. This is not about predictions or panic, but about understanding market structure, managing expectations, and staying patient as we move through a fast and...

Do the Tradeable Volatility Markets think there are Road bumps coming? Turn on the financial news and you’ll hear the word “volatility” almost every day. But are markets really more volatile... or does it just feel that way? In this video, I break down what market volatility actually looks like as we head into 2026, a mid-term election year that has historically brought wider swings and heightened uncertainty. I walk through the data behind market drawdowns, explain what’s normal versus what’s truly out of the ordinary, and put recent market moves into proper long-term perspective. We start with bond volat...

Patience may matter more than usual for investors in 2026.

In Part 3 of Oak Harvest’s 2026 Market Outlook, I explain why our investment team believes 2026 could be a year of elevated market volatility and what history may suggest for long-term investors.   We look at past market behavior during midterm election years, second years of presidential terms, and periods when a new Federal Reserve Chair takes office. While history does not repeat exactly, understanding these patterns can help investors stay grounded during uncertain markets.   Key topics in this video: • 2026 market volatility expectations • Midterm election year market history • New Fed Chair transitions and market reactions • Why volatility often creates opportunity for long-term investors   ...

If you are approaching retirement — or already retired — understanding potential market dynamics ahead is an important part of long-term planning. In this episode, the investment team at Oak Harvest Financial Group shares its perspective on what investors may face in 2026, including the role of corporate earnings growth, valuation considerations, interest rates, and the likelihood of increased market volatility. We discuss: Why earnings growth is a key long-term driver of stock market performance What current consensus forecasts suggest for S&P 500 earnings How productivity gains, including AI adoption, may impact corporate margins Why periods of higher volatility have historically created both risk...

Here's your sneak peak of what our team expects for the 1st half of 2026 in the markets. I'll walk you through what investors can realistically expect when it comes to equity returns, market drawdowns, and volatility, and how those cycles tend to show up over time. You will come away with a clearer understanding of how often pullbacks actually occur, why volatility is a normal cost of long-term investing, and how historical seasonality, market cycles, and presidential terms may influence the path ahead into early and mid-2026. I also explain how our investment team thinks about tailwinds, headwinds, and elevated...