Economy Watch

Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the world is watching the hot-mess mismanagement from the White House spill out into into the general administration of their country.

But first locally this week it will be about October inflation signals and the RBNZ's half yearly Financial Stability review. We will also get updates to PPI data and trade ac...

Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with we should note that US benchmark bond yields are moving up and are now at a three-week high on expectations that the Federal Reserve will deliver multiple rate hikes in the current tightening cycle.

But first, US initial jobless claims rose last week to 207,000 which was notably more than seasonal factors would ha...

Kia ora.

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news of tensions persisting in the Middle East and no real progress in 'negotiations'. The oil price has firmed overnight after at least two tankers were attacked, one on fire. In November so far, at least one vessel is being hit every day, on average.

However, first today in the US, home lo...

Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news  the US is getting a brutal lesson on how to make their economy uncompetitive, by looking inward, applying tariffs, and accepting higher costs.

But first, there was a Pulse dairy auction overnight that was relatively positive in USD terms, more so in NZD terms. Of note, the dominant WMP price rose +2.2% fro...

Kia ora.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news markets seem to like the expected guardrails on the US President, so risk appetites have returned today even if none of the underlying problems have been addressed anywhere. But it seems to be enough for oil prices to fall, tech confidence to return, and yields to retrace.

The greenback has come un...

Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news  data from the world's two largest economies has heads being scratched.

But first in the week ahead locally we will get a look at October retail sales with electronic card transaction data on Thursday and it isn't expected to very good. And the RBNZ's inflation expectations survey will be out for Q4...

Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news financial markets are shunning exposure to tech stocks today on the expectation that their free-ride will be coming to an end over the next few years as a result of the US election shifts. Some specific stocks like SpaceX (-10%) are down sharply. The AI backlash is threatening datacenter investment plans.

Tomorrow we...

Kia ora.

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news of a notable relief rally in American financial markets after their decisive election results. Big money injections by billionaires failed spectacularly.  If it results in a fairer, broader dispersion of wealth then the consumer engine that drives the US economy will pick up and business opportunities will improve. 

So we are seeing equi...

Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news financial markets are on the sidelines of the US mid-term elections, waiting for clarity on the collective US results.

But first, there was a full dairy auction overnight delivering a good +2.95% overall rise in prices in USD, up +4.0% in NZD terms and that is the strongest result since March. It is all bu...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news it is the final day of campaigning in the US mid-term elections and financial markets there are relatively upbeat. Helping is a rather sharp fall in the oil price as the Americans back-track on their tough talk with Iran.

But first in the...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news economic performance will get judged by electors this week.

Of course, this week will be dominated by the general election here and most analysts see it as a toss-up with the potential for protracted post-election negotiations. But we will also get quite a fe...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news Google's Q3 profit miss and AI cash burn have revived investor concerns about the whole race for AI dominance and the valuations driving the sector.

And that is so large, it shows up in US national accounts.

First, the US rele...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news it now looks like we are going to get an international rush of interest rate hikes before the end of the year - in New Zealand, in Australia, in Japan, in the US and in Canada - after the pre-election pause while likely raised the...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news economic issues are coming to a head in both the US and China.

But first up today, there was a Pulse dairy auction overnight which basically recorded lower prices for both SMP and the butter fats, down about -1% in both USD and...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news markets are in a holding pattern waiting to see what damage Trump & Netanyahu cook up on the war front. Meanwhile there are thunderstorms in Brazil, and on Wall Street

Meanwhile, democracy made a somewhat unexpected comeback over the weekend with anti-autocratic parties in b...

A big week ahead of central bank decisions. Inflation elevated, while PMIs positive. Canada retail positive. EU inflation expectations hold. war drums beat louder. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news tech equity wobbles is driving a sudden, sharp flight to the relative short-term 'safety' of government bonds.

The Nasdaq is down -2.5% so far today with Meta down -7.2% (see below), SpaceX is down -8.5%, Google is down -9.6%, and many other FANG...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the AI buildout is going to cost more as bond investors recoil at the risks involved. Those higher rates will spill out everywhere.

But first, there was a chunky -5.3% fall in US mortgage applications last week from the prior week, making it n...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news American economic data is notably weaker today.

There was a full dairy auction overnight where the overall prices rose +2.5% in USD terms, up +1.6% in NZD terms. This brought more strength for the powders with SMP up +3.4% and WMP up +4.4%. BMP was up +8.4%. But...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news surging exports and a range of stimulus measures (subsidies) are bolstering Chinese economic activity. It is a track likely to run into stiff resistance from many of the countries targeted by these subsidised exports - so the Chinese economic stability may not last much long...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news of a shambles on the streets in Paris and New Delhi, and a shambles in the US fiscal management.

But first, this week will feature our Q3-2...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news long bond yields are falling fast today on worries about long-term growth prospects, while short term yields are holding with a much smaller pullback, kept up on expectations the Fed will hike in its battle against inflation. A bull flattening is underway. a signal that...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news of a developing spiral of higher energy costs and higher money costs. Wall Street is recoiling at the prospects. The NZD is collateral damage.

US mortgage applications fell again last week from the week before with both new lending and refinance activity retr...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news as winter gets closer in the northern hemisphere, the energy situation is worrying the supply industry and consumers. American heating oil prices are rising again, approaching their record highs.

The overnight Pulse dairy auction was a positive one with WMP and butter up m...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news oil prices are rising again with Russia answering Trump with energy strikes on Ukraine and the Yemeni fighting raging.

But first, two American economists have been awarded the Nobel Prize in economics “for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation”. Or, showing how well-timed fiscal a...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news of new Trump delusions.

But first in the US, it will be a federal holiday tomorrow, Columbus Day, and many official agencies aren't working. But many businesses are treating it as a normal day, so it is sort of a long weekend for...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news that while the tech industry is driving key parts of global trade, investors are pulling back from funding the splurge.

But first in the US, initial jobless claims came in at 170,300 last week, a +12,000 rise from the previous week but about what seas...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news risk appetites seem to have weakened overnight as the cost of money shows little sign its rising trajectory is ending.

First in the US, their benchmark 30 year mortgage rate has risen sharply again over the past week, now at 7.49% and its highest sinc...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news that although the Strait of Hormuz is essentially shut again, alternate flows of crude oil are starting to ramp up. And benchmark bond yields have eased back today.

But first, the overnight dairy auction was a full one and prices rose +1.2% in USD...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news benchmark interest rates are rising quickly again today, especially in the US and Europe.

But first in Brazil, they will have a run-off election for President, with no candidate getting 50% of the vote. But the first round showed surprising support for the righ...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the cost of crude oil is stuck at US$100/bbl still despite G7 promises to release reserves, principally because of Trump's renewed threats at Iran. Resolution of a key driver of inflation and policy uncertainty seems far off.

This week will be quie...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news global factories are mostly in expansion mode, driven by a new order surge and despite the rising cost pressures.

But first, monitored US job cuts stayed quite low in September at about 44,000, similar to August, and similar to the level in September a ye...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with the bond market warnings don't seem to be being taken seriously by policy makers. They are ignoring them at their peril.

US mortgage applications fell sharply again last week as their benchmark 30 year home loan rate rose to 7.30% and a three year high.

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news  the bond market is shouting louder warnings at US policymakers. And China is rolling out more stimulus and subsidies to counter a growing slowdown there.

First today, the overnight Pulse dairy auction delivered mixed results although both the SMP and WMP prices rose f...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the rejection of the Iranian peace proposal by the US has meant diplomatic efforts to resolve the issue have lost momentum and financial markets have downgraded prospects across the board, even though the release of some recent data has generally been positive.

First...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news nothing was resolved in the Xi-Trump talks, and nothing is resolved in the US-Iran standoff.

But first, this week will be dominated by the RBA policy rate decision on Tuesday as the next major set piece review in the midst of the globa...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news US treasury yields are trading at multi-year highs, as stronger-than-expected economic data and elevated oil prices fuelled bets on another Fed rate hike. The 10-year yield topped 5.18%, its highest level since 2007, while 30-year reached a 2004 peak of 5.47%. The gold price is slipping. Many other asset...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news stronger American economic data and higher oil prices have built expectations of more rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. The USD has jumped in response.

However, US mortgage applications fell again last week but that is really no surprise because that marke...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news inflation's pressures are building everywhere, even if oil prices took a small dip today.

But first, overnight there was a Pulse dairy auction where prices dipped marginally in USD except for SMP, but were all higher in NZD, although this too was only...

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Kia ora.

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news more policymakers are bracing for dealing with stagflation.

But first, in the leadup to the Xi-Trump talks in Washington, there is a focus on AI and its risks. And there is some pre-celebration from both sides of how good it is going to b...