Economy Watch
Bonds press fiscal cliff warnings, but few are listening
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with the bond market warnings don't seem to be being taken seriously by policy makers. They are ignoring them at their peril.
US mortgage applications fell sharply again last week as their benchmark 30 year home loan rate rose to 7.30% and a three year high.
US bond rates rise; China launches new stimulus
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the bond market is shouting louder warnings at US policymakers. And China is rolling out more stimulus and subsidies to counter a growing slowdown there.
First today, the overnight Pulse dairy auction delivered mixed results although both the SMP and WMP prices rose f...
No appetite for a resolution
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the rejection of the Iranian peace proposal by the US has meant diplomatic efforts to resolve the issue have lost momentum and financial markets have downgraded prospects across the board, even though the release of some recent data has generally been positive.
First...
Trump's deal-making fiascos widen
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news nothing was resolved in the Xi-Trump talks, and nothing is resolved in the US-Iran standoff.
But first, this week will be dominated by the RBA policy rate decision on Tuesday as the next major set piece review in the midst of the globa...
Global bond selloff deepens
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news US treasury yields are trading at multi-year highs, as stronger-than-expected economic data and elevated oil prices fuelled bets on another Fed rate hike. The 10-year yield topped 5.18%, its highest level since 2007, while 30-year reached a 2004 peak of 5.47%. The gold price is slipping. Many other asset...
US bond yields hit 20 year highs
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news stronger American economic data and higher oil prices have built expectations of more rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. The USD has jumped in response.
However, US mortgage applications fell again last week but that is really no surprise because that marke...
Inflation embeds
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news inflation's pressures are building everywhere, even if oil prices took a small dip today.
But first, overnight there was a Pulse dairy auction where prices dipped marginally in USD except for SMP, but were all higher in NZD, although this too was only...
Painful tradeoffs coming
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news more policymakers are bracing for dealing with stagflation.
But first, in the leadup to the Xi-Trump talks in Washington, there is a focus on AI and its risks. And there is some pre-celebration from both sides of how good it is going to b...
Weaker data signals but markets stay upbeat
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news global financial markets are little-changed at near historic highs even though economic data releases seem to be still giving weaker signals.
This week will be dominated by the Fonterra annual result and dairy payout finalisation, a big dump of RBNZ lending data, and...
Financial market relief
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news it seems yesterday's unanimous Fed decision to prioritise the inflation fight has financial markets reassured. The US Treasury yields have pulled back from their highs, although still at Tuesday's high level.
One thing millions are watching is whether US mortgage rates will hit...
US Fed hikes, sees more tightening ahead
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the US is raising interest rates and the Middle East war is spreading.
First, as expected and in a very brief Warsh-style statement, the US Fed raised its key policy rate by +25 bps to 4.0% in a unanimous vote. It was its first rise...
Markets demand rate rises to fight inflation
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the Gulf Cooperation Council meetings with Iran have been 'postponed'. So no progress there.
That means we need to prepare for more pain at the pump, and aggressive competition for global fuel supplies.
In the US a full +25 bps is now pr...
Higher yields are here to stay
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the price of money just keeps going up. Others have pointed out it is not only US policy management that is causing this trend, but also the generational shift of boomer savings starting to run down as they are used, generating a global imbalance. There...
The cost of money has just jumped
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news bond prices and equity prices are falling as oil prices have jumped, and markets now see a much larger chance the US Fed will have to raise rates when it meets on Thursday next week (NZT). Bond yields have jumped today in an outsized shift...
The risks of an unravelling rise
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news both Iran and the US are targeting oil tankers in the Persian Gulf in the sharpest escalation in their conflict since Trump's war began. The oil price jumped +4% overnight, and other financial risk metrics rose too.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary is making moves...
Central banks realise they have to get more serious in the inflation fight
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news inflation is high and rising around the world and central banks are confronting a change in priorities to get it under control. Their slow action is undermining their cred in the communities they serve. And that slow action has them facing some tough choices.
...
Commodities higher, global interest rates higher, yen higher
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news global interest rates are still moving higher. And that is particularly true for Australian benchmark bonds. Money and commodities are transitioning somewhere, but it is not clear to where, just yet.
But first, it is a public holiday in the US (Labor Day...
Eyes on global inflation
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news we are heading into a week that will deliver a wide set of consumer and producer inflation reports.
But locally, the data releases will be light. It is a light data week in Australia too, with only migration updates this week. But we wi...
Pretending inflation is under control
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news financial markets are in a holding pattern today.
First we should note that this coming weekend will be a major long weekend holiday in the US, for Monday's Labor Day. The means US markets will likely be quieter than normal until Tuesday their...
Resilience despite risks & threats
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news hostilities in the Persian Gulf are still ongoing and still clouding the global economy
First in the US, the latest Fed Beige Book survey reveals an American economy where activity increased modestly since early July. Ten of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts repor...
Investors on edge as global bonds sell off
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news bond yields worldwide climbing as rising oil prices are raising inflation concerns. Financial markets have raised the chance of widespread interest-rate hikes. US Treasury 10 year yields hit 2025 highs at 4.8%, while Japan’s equivalent rate hit 3% for the first time since 1996. German bund yields climbed to 15-y...
A higher rate future has financial market attention
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news renewed fighting in the Persian Gulf from Trump's 'forever wars' is pushing oil prices up again and sentiment lower on the impending new shot inflation will get.
So, the yield on the US 10-yr Treasuries rose again now to 4.76%, its highest since Janu...
Key decisions await in a big week ahead
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news
central banks are being forced to acknowledge that their measured approach to inflation control over most of 2026 just hasn't worked and they need a refreashed, tougher approach.
Locally this week, the highlight will be Wednesday's full RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement. With...
What will Warsh say? or do?
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news financial markets are awaiting a Kevin Warsh speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, specifically about how he sees the Fed's role when the US Treasury seems to be undermining it. What he says about the fight against inflation, if anything, will be revealing. This has...
The US leaks momentum on inflation threats
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news of more data that suggests the US economy is not regaining any momentum, and may be about to be tested by record high diesel prices.
US mortgage application levels dipped again last week from the prior week, mainly due to much lower refi...
Markets see US as just a paper tiger on Iran
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the oil price has eased overnight on signs of new negotiations between the US and Iran, and relief that the US sanctions weren't as advertised. They exempted Chinese banks, for example. And China said it will support Iran.
But first overnight, the Puls...
US bully tactics widened after prior failures
US makes big economic threats at Iran. Iran blacklists tankers. US economic activity weakens. Canada gets new tariff threat. Singapore inflation up, baby bonus expanded. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI
Despite tough news, global PMIs mostly positive
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news we head into the final week of the northern holiday season with financial markets reacting to tough news on multiple fronts.
US missteps are catching up with them and that is driving higher interest rates and a lower USD, both a which invo...
US debt worries mount
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news we may be seeing the end of markets regarding US Treasuries as safe-haven assets – although to be fair it isn’t clear what would replace it.
Long-maturity US Treasury yields rose today to reverse the drop we noted yesterday. The yield on the US 1...
Bessent tries to screw the scrum
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the Trump Administration has been unnerved by the rising yield investors are demanding for their long-dated bonds. Thy have now moved to "provide liquidity support" for the UST 30 year bond, effectively spending deficit dollars to bid the yield down and the price up on seco...
US economy losing momentum
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news global oil prices have risen again with no end to Trump's Hormuz adventure. In something of a gigantic own-goal, the US economy is losing momentum rather quickly now.
But first, the overnight full dairy auction came in better than the futures market had...
Long-term yield warning signals grow stronger
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news Iran has decided to shift its policy from defensive to "fully offensive" due to the deadlock in efforts to agree a permanent end to its war with the United States, a senior Iranian official told Reuters overnight. Meanwhile, Trump has threatened to bomb Oman, a Gulf...
The two top dogs show signs of limping
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the US economy is starting to show signs of exhaustion - just as the Chinese economy looks like it can't actually transition to one where internal demand replaces their industrial exports engine, as they were planning.
But locally this week it will be a...
Markets & data delivers mixed messages
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news ship traffic in the Hormuz Strait is now at a complete standstill. But oil prices have eased slightly all the same. So, Wall Street rose and to new record highs.
In the US, there were +187,000 initial jobless claims last week, a slightly larg...
US inflation little-changed, taking pressure off the Fed
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the pressure is off the US Fed from inflation threats, temporarily at least.
First today, and as markets had expected, US CPI inflation came in at 3.4% in July, dipping from 3.5% in June. Food prices were up +3.0% from a year ago, petrol prices up m...
Ignoring Hormuz & hoping for the best
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US accepts its conditions. So, stalemate there. However, financial markets are kind of shrugging off these risks. Pakistan claims both sides are still talking however.
First up today, the overnight dairy Puls...
Hormuz shut tight
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news rising oil prices are reigniting inflation concerns and even equity investors have noticed. Bond investors have bid up benchmark bond rates. The Fed next has to deal with this risk in just over a month, but that investors are moving now indicates the heightened conc...
Is inflation about to resume its rise?
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news we are facing a new burst in inflation as commodity prices rise, oil and gold both are rising, and benchmark interest rates are stuck high waiting to see where these tea leaves settle.
Locally this week we will get June migration data, and...
Rates rise with oil prices
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news oil prices are up today as Iran flexes its diplomatic muscle and threats, one of which is an effort to block US ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile Trump is backing away from more action in the region, potentially leaving US allies in the...
US still doesn't have a Hormuz deal
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news Iran and Oman say they have a deal on the Hormuz Strait, and the US says it is still hoping for a deal to open it up. But the US no longer has any cards, it seems.
Away from all that in the...
