Economy Watch

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news we are waiting for the first indications of retail sales, as the US and EU economies make their run to the end-of-year holiday season. It is this retail impulse that powers much of the global economy.

Also, in the week ahead we will get local and Australian building consent data, and th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the global economy has one month to go to bolster its 2025 economic performance, all down to retail sales now.

First, of course, the US is now in its Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the start of their big retail period until Christmas. A lot rides on the consumer spending activity in this period. It...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news notable data in both Australia and New Zealand yesterday has reset our currencies and our benchmark interest rates.

In New Zealand of course it was the market reaction to the RBNZ OCR cut, in Australia it was the unexpected rise in their CPI inflation. Both had a cumulative impact in both co...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news bond markets are ramping up their defensive posture, especially in the US, as American economic data fades further.

But first up today, there was a GlobalDairyTrade Pulse powder auction today and prices slipped again. They were down -1% from the prior full event a week ago for SMP and dived a ra...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news holiday season retail cheerleaders may have to work harder this year to induce spending.

First, Americans are expected to be out retail shopping this week in record numbers, up almost +2% this year than last year. But doubts are also rising about how much they will spend. Research shows shoppers are wary of...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Q3 is developing better than expected in most parts of the world.

But first, this week will be all about Wednesday's RBNZ OCR review, where a-25 bps rate cut is widely expected. That will probably push term deposit rates down, and floating mortgage rates down too. But it is still unclear ho...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with markets investors are looking sceptically at restarted US data and the outstanding Nvidia result.

First, the American initial jobless claims reporting has restarted, and they say 216,700 new people filed for these benefits last week, up from 214,000 in the same week a year ago. There are now 1.727 mln people on these benefits, up fr...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with markets are even more skittish today, with key activity moving into bond markets even at higher yields.

First, American mortgage applications fell back last week and by their most since late September. Fears about rising interest rates are getting the blame as it sinks in that highish inflation isn't going away. Refinance ac...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news risk aversion is the theme of the day for investors who seem particularly jittery about AI valuations, crypto prices, and the prospects for the US economy.

But first, we start today with the results of another full dairy auction, and they aren't good. Not so much because the overall result was do...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news there are more twists and turns in international trade to report today.

But first in the US, the NY Empire factory survey came in positively in November, on the back of a good rise in new orders. But they got a similar jump in November 2024, and this latest 2025 result is -7.5% lo...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news inflation is rising more quickly in one large economy, the US, and policymakers and financial markets are getting skittish.

Firstly, this week will be dominated by the Reserve Bank of Australia's release of the minutes of its November 5 meeting. There will be intense interest on their views of inflation risks. Then th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that we have unexpectedly weak data from China and unexpectedly strong data from Australia.

But first in the US, it is back to work for their Federal government after the record 43 day shutdown impasse ends - at least until January 30 when the current deal needs renewal again. Missed official data releases th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that with the Indian subcontinent on the edge of armed conflict and tit-for-tat terrorist moves and retaliation, the world's economy is ignoring these new risks.

First up today, the US House of Representatives is set to vote to end their latest and record-long shutdown, and by the time you read this, ha...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news economic optimism seems to be on the rise in many places, but not in the world's largest economy.

First in the US, not only is the federal government shut down still, but it is Veterans Day, a Federal holiday, although many firms still operate including the NYSE. But the Wall Street bo...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US is moving to end its government shutdown.

First, Wall Street has started its week positively with the S&P 500 rising, the Nasdaq rising even more, and the Dow Jones gaining over 240 points as optimism grew that the US Federal government shutdown could soon end. In a procedural vote yesterday, the...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Chinese data released over the weekend indicates their domestic economy is holding its own, and their export economy continues to thrive, despite Trump.

But first a look ahead. Locally, we will get a fix on retail sales this week on Thursday with the release of the October electronic cards data, and po...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with the mess in the US is getting worse as 'retribution' is ramped up. Markets are getting nervous.

First, the US government shutdown is masking official data that would show growing troubles in their economy. Today the Challenger job cut report for October revealed that softening consumer demand, the shutdown, AI adoption and hi...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with the good bits of news which seem to dominate today are in fact masking some less-than-good trends nested within them.

First up, US ADP employment report on private payrolls for October reported a +42,000 rise in filled jobs, much better than the -29,000 shedding in September and also better than the expected +25,000 gain ob...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with of leaking economic signals everywhere we look today. And the NZD is in retreat as the mood sours on commodity currencies, and Wall Street follows.

First, the overnight full dairy auction brought lower prices yet again, down -2.4% in USD terms this time, down -1.0% in NZD terms. Butter (-4.3%) and cheddar ch...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with mixed news about how the world's factories are faring.

First up today we need to report that the closely watched US ISM factory PMI undershot expectations, and those expectations were for a contraction anyway. Weak new order flows and production levels were behind the dour result. They say almost every component is co...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news rising inflation pressures are now appearing everywhere in the West, underpinned by poor economic judgements.

This week will be a busy one on the economic data front, even with the US federal agencies shut down.

Locally, all eyes will be on the Q3 labour market data and most observers ex...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news benchmark bond rates are on the move higher as the bond market passes its judgment on the geopolitical trade situation and the US Fed's signals.

Basically they are pricing in risks where American inflation risks are not contained, and there is no real resolution to the trade tensions triggered by Trump.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the two big policy set pieces today have been underwhelming.

First up today, the US Fed trimmed its policy rate by -25% as expected, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. It issued a timid wait-and-see review which would be consistent with growing divisions within the policymaking committee, and growing worries that in...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US Fed is meeting but flying blind on both inflation and jobs data. But other indications suggests the US economy is fading faster than previously assumed.

In the US oil patch, the Dallas Fed said service sector activity contracted further in October with the revenue index, a key measure of se...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news expectations are gyrating around the upcoming US-China leaders meeting. Markets have high expectations and are pricing in a positive outcome. For US markets, this is relatively modest and a 'relief'. For Chinese markets, and Asian markets more generally, it is very positive.

A surge in market euphoria could well bring a su...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news of a sudden jump in international crude oil prices as the US sanctioned the main Russian oil companies.

In the US, existing home sales in September rose to just over a 4 mln annual pace, slightly more than in August and +3.3% better than year-ago levels. But it was to levels less than ma...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US federal Government shutdown is now the second longest in their history having just overtaken the 1995-96 one where Republicans were trying to prevent a Clinton budget being passed. The longest was the 2018-19 one induced by Trump. The current one has seen about 1 mln federal workers stood down, and that is th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the market assumption that Trump's upcoming meeting with Chinese president Xi would calm trade matters seems up in the air again, with that meeting now suddenly less certain. And a Trump-Putin meeting chance is fading. As well as the Gaza truce holding. Markets are in a wait-and-see mode today. But precious metals prices ar...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Australia seems to have avoided American ire when Prime Minister Albanese visited Washington overnight. They ended with a rare earths agreement, confirmation of the AUKUS submarine deal, and unchanged 10% tariff rates into the US.

Albanese also seems to have avoided being forced into an overt anti-China position, and has resisted committing to...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Australia is facing some hard choices in their relationships with China and the US. Can you have security without economic stability? Can you have stability with a disrespectful and unreliable partner?

But first, this coming week will be dominated by today's New Zealand CPI release later this morning. And a full da...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that while the 'real economy' is barely able to expand - but is in fact doing so modestly - there are two extreme bubbles brewing - in AI firm valuations, and in precious metals valuations. One or both will end sometime, and the losses will be extraordinary when they do, likely hurting the 'r...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news inflation is getting entrenched in the US and policymakers are starting to look away from the threat under political pressure.

But first, US mortgage applications fell for a third consecutive week with both refinance and new home applications decreasing. This came even though benchmark 30 year mortgage rates fell too. But the ov...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news both Fed boss Powell, and the IMF are increasingly concerned about financial stability.

But first up today, there was a dairy Pulse auction overnight for milk powders. Prices for both SMP and WMP dipped -0.5% in USD terms, extending the easing we have noted recently. But the exchange rate fell faster, so...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Trump (and Vance) are attempting to roll-back their aggression in the face of ugly financial market reactions and firm Chinese pushbacks. That cheered Wall Street and American investors, but others are watching the risks mount and have pushed precious metals prices up sharply.

Meanwhile, China said their exports rose +8.3% in September fr...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news markets will be on edge this week after a sharp -2.7% retreat on Wall Street on Friday and the largest one-day drop since early April. Bonds twisted into defensive mode. Commodities fell, especially oil. Bitcoin retreated sharply. And the USD shifted into its traditional risk-averse mode but not by as much as you mi...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news China's economic activity over their holiday period will be impressing investors, while the US worries about weakening labour markets.

But first, the ongoing US Federal Government shutdown means there is no USDA WASDE report for September that was due today. That will delay scrutiny of "farmageddon" especially for soybean farmers. Bailouts ar...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news it seems the absence of official US economic data isn't holding back financial market risk takers, and even the data that is available, none of it very positive, isn't restraining them either.

First in the US, consumer debt growth seems to have evaporated in August. They were expecting a 'normal' +US$12 bl...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news most of the latest economic data seems to be on a downslide.

The overnight dairy auction brought slightly easing prices, although not be as much as the derivatives market had signaled. In the end prices fell -1.6% in USD terms, but in NZD terms they were actually up +1.5% as the value of...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news financial markets are running positively, but without the guardrails of American economic data, while the US Federal shutdown extends. In their absence, consumer and tech speculations are generating considerable froth.

But first in China, their Mid-Autumn festival holiday spending should tell us a lot about their economic activity, and the initial si...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that while much of the financial world seems disconnected from economic reality, we are about to reminded of our local realities this week.

This week will be all about the RBNZ OCR review on Wednesday. Will it be a -25 bps cut or a -50 bps cut? Financial markets do not kn...