Economy Watch
We follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.
Ignoring Hormuz & hoping for the best
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US accepts its conditions. So, stalemate there. However, financial markets are kind of shrugging off these risks. Pakistan claims both sides are still talking however.
First up today, the overnight dairy Puls...
Hormuz shut tight
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news rising oil prices are reigniting inflation concerns and even equity investors have noticed. Bond investors have bid up benchmark bond rates. The Fed next has to deal with this risk in just over a month, but that investors are moving now indicates the heightened conc...
Is inflation about to resume its rise?
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news we are facing a new burst in inflation as commodity prices rise, oil and gold both are rising, and benchmark interest rates are stuck high waiting to see where these tea leaves settle.
Locally this week we will get June migration data, and...
Rates rise with oil prices
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news oil prices are up today as Iran flexes its diplomatic muscle and threats, one of which is an effort to block US ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile Trump is backing away from more action in the region, potentially leaving US allies in the...
US still doesn't have a Hormuz deal
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news Iran and Oman say they have a deal on the Hormuz Strait, and the US says it is still hoping for a deal to open it up. But the US no longer has any cards, it seems.
Away from all that in the...
Oil prices fall on expectation a Hormuz deal is close
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Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI
Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the oil price has taken another large retreat today even though the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz remain essentially closed. Alternative ways to shift crude oil out of the region are gathering pace and effectiveness. But this big price drop is directly related to S...
Despite challenges, global economy still expanding solidly
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news we are now in the peak vacation season in the northern hemisphere with policy activity relatively low. But US petrol costs are high in this summer driving season.
Trump continues to claim he is negotiating with Iran. Iran continues to deny any talk...
The rise and rise of long-term interest rates
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news that now we are in August, there are only 100 working days until Christmas, and less than 70 until our 2026 general election! You will need to pull your finger out to ensure your 2026 goals are on track to be accomplished.
This week will see the...
The air is going out of the global economy
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the giant US economy is slowing. It hasn't had three consecutive lackluster quarters in at least a decade, certainly not since the GFC.
US jobless claims fell last week but by less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 1.85 mln peop...
Hot war spread to reignite inflation risks
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Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI
Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the US and the world are facing a new jolt of inflation as the hot war activity spread. The US central bank response? ignore the risks and pretend things will return to normal soon.
But first, US mortgage applications fell sharply last week...
Learning to live with less oil
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news China's clear need for less oil has pushed its price sharply lower even as both the Gulf of Hormuz and the Red Sea remain effectively shut. As other sources raise their output, global demand is being undermined, essentially by this Chinese transition.
But...
US backs away in Hormuz after achieving nothing
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Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI
Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news Iran is claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz as the US backs away, unable to exert the pressure it thought it could. The pause in fighting there has calmed markets significantly even if few ships are actually transiting.
Elsewhere, the US dura...
Transactional Trump trapped by his own missteps
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news that after more bellicose threats, Trump has backed off hitting Iran as he had signaled, another TACO twist. The region isn't quiet, but the threatened escalation by the US hasn't happened, not yet anyway. The oil price hasn't really eased back yet on this lull...
Oil price surge sees financial markets stagger
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Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI
Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news tankers in the Red Sea have been hit by missiles fired from Yemen. This is unnerving global markets today, and oil prices have jumped everywhere. Bond yields are surging, pushing up mortgage rates and weighing on equity valuations, especially for tech firms.
But...
The oil crisis isn't over yet
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Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI
Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news we may be facing a renewed oil supply shortage and this time reserves are at unusually low levels. The combined impacts of extended closures in the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea are mounting, and just as we thought the May-June stre...
New US tariffs awaited - with yawns
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news many countries are awaiting news of a new barrage of US tariffs, although the fear level is nowhere near as high this time as this weapon has proven relatively limp in the past, and mainly hurts US consumers.
First today, the overnight dair...
Hamilton Confidential, the Worldclear podcast, Episode 4
Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider.
Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period.
With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year."
Worldclear was found by Department of...
Hamilton Confidential, the Worldclear podcast, Episode 3
Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider.
Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period.
With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year."
Worldclear was found by Department of...
Hamilton Confidential, the Worldclear podcast, Episode 2
Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider.
Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period.
With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year."
Worldclear was found by Department of...
Hamilton Confidential, the Worldclear podcast, Episode 1
Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider.
Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period.
With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year."
Worldclear was found by Department of...
War and debt stresses grow
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Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI
Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the Yemeni Houthis have announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia but effectively closing the Red Sea. Elsewhere new mediation efforts are underway again.
In the US, the Conference Board's leading indicator tracking turned negative in June. The shift down isn't a lot b...
Fires, fights & fragility undermine economic progress
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news it is a good job we have sports to allow us a temporary distraction from the geopolitical mess that the US has initiated and which seems to just go on and on. A shut Hormuz and a jump in oil prices is bringing Groundhog Day...
US equities fall away on rising risks
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the US-Iran conflict seems to be intensifying. Market responses don't reflect that yet however.
In the US, initial jobless claims rose last week to 245,000 but this was less of a rise than seasonal factors can account for. There are now 1.85 mln people on t...
Running on empty?
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news there is a growing sense that the world is close to running on empty the longer the US-Iran flareup carries on.
But markets are ignoring that risk.
In the US producer prices fell -0.3% in June from May, marking the firs...
Trump backs down on Hormuz tolls
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Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI
Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news of more Trump flip-flops in haphazard moves that show Trump has no strategy or exit plan from the mess he created in the Middle East.
But first, there was a Pulse dairy auction overnight and prices mostly dipped from last week's full even...
The oil price jumps on latest tension
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Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI
Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news that at the close of business today in New York, the Q2-2026 earnings season will kick off with major banks JP Morgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo leading the pack. They will be reporting into a market that is jittery over the rebo...
'Strategy' beating 'firepower'
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the Hormuz Strait is effectively shut again with Iran's 'strategy' winning against the US 'firepower'. It is hard to think of any other politician trashing their advantage perceptions so completely. There will be long historical echoes from all this ineffective breast-beating.
But else...
Renewed hot conflict queers the global economic pitch
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the oil price, and benchmark interest rates have both risen on the renewed tensions between the US and Iran.
But first today, the IMF has updated its global economic forecasts, and they are virtually unchanged from the main release in April. They note...
Investors hesitate and reassess
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news renewed Hormuz attacks are raising oil prices and interest rates today, not helped by a pullback in tech stocks.
But first today, there was another dairy auction overnight, a full one with new season volumes returning. But this one came in sharply lowe...
Global economic pressures ease
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Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI
Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news that now the Hormiz situation is settling down somewhat with oil prices easing, the global economy seems to be responding with a better outlook.
First today, the widely-watched US ISM services PMI came in at a good level for June even if slightly soft...
OPEC wants higher production
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news an OPEC decision overnight may bring lower fuel prices much sooner. But then, this will depend on the volume of Hormuz crossings.
But first, this coming week locally will be dominated by the RBNZ's OCR review on Wednesday. Economists are divided on whether an i...
US data weakens sharply
Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news of a surprisingly weak American jobs report for June. There is no World Cup bounce there. And economists are divided over whether Federal Reserve policymakers will be holding rates steady, lifting or lowering them over the next six months based on this latest data.
The US economy added just +57,000 jobs in June, th...
Markets sceptical of Warsh's rosy outlook
Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the new US Fed boss says price risks have come down in recent weeks, and repeated his determination to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Interestingly, US benchmark interest rates rose after these comments which tells you something about how they feel about the prospects for lower Fed Funds rates and inflation control.
...
Hormuz will never be the same
Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the Persian Gulf situation is settling into a chronic stalemate after the acute hot conflict. US allies in the region are confused, Qatar's role in negotiations is questioned as to whether it can actually do anything, and Iran and Oman are moving forward with their plans for 'fees' and 'management' of the waterway. The US...
Despite the US-Iran clash, the global economy is resilient
Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news of new truce agreements in the Middle East, at least as claimed by the US. Iran is conspicuously quiet that there is any agreement however.
But at the year's half-way point, economic prospects are generally far from dire.
In the US, the next regional Fed factory survey for June is ou...
Oil prices hold despite rising Gulf tensions
Kia ora.
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news clashes in the Strait of Hormuz are unstitching the uneasy ceasefire and giving credence to sceptics who saw the 'truce deal' between the US and Iran as superficial and flawed. The US believes its own propaganda, thinking it is negotiating from strength, but no-one else does, least of all Iran. US allies in the re...
Hormuz still fragile, but inflation returns as the next big issue
Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news more vessels are moving out of the Strait of Hormuz, but 'incidents' are generating nervousness in a fragile situation.
First, US PCE inflation rose to 4.1% in May and as expected, a rise from 3.8% in April. Core PCE inflation rose too, also as expected and is now at 3.4%. Meanwhile both personal income and pe...
Hormuz reopening to flood world with crude oil
Kia ora.
Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news of falls in many metrics across the board today, highlighted by commodity prices, crypto and interest rates. Equities are lower too. But the USD is rising on risk-aversion.
There is now international agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz ("without tolls") and that is expected to see a rush of hundreds of sh...
Commodity currencies take it on the chin
Kia ora.
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news markets are betting that the next rate move by the US Fed will be a hike. And that has juiced up the USD today.
But first, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought sharply lower prices for the three lines offered. AMF took a -7.5% tumble from last week's full auction event. They di...
Lake Lucerne talks make edgy progress
Kia ora.
Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the Swiss talks between the US and Iran seem to have made progress overnight, from Iran's point of view at least. The fighting in Lebanon has abated. Oil prices have fallen following the 60 days peace deal roadmap is still in place. To keep the momentum, the US Treasury Department has agreed it will not en...
