Economy Watch

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news fighting inflation may well be a downgraded objective in the face of political pressure. The consequences could be long-lasting and global.

For financial markets, this week will be all about the US Fed's Thursday rate decision where now a -25 bps cut is widely anticipated, to try and weigh against the so...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news away from the guns and hatred consuming the US at present. Our challenge is to keep it out of our society.

Markets had been waiting for the American August CPI inflation data and it came in higher, although no more than expected. It rose to 2.9% in August, the highest since January, af...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news all eyes are now on tomorrow's US CPI release for August.

But first, there was surprising news from the US. August producer prices rose far less than any analyst has forecast. In fact they fell -0.1% in August from July, following a downwardly revised +0.7% gain in July, driven by a sharp de...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that rather than understating US jobs growth - which got her fired - the stats agency reporting labour market data overstated Trump's jobs growth, and by some margin.

But first up today, there was a dairy Pulse auction earlier today for both SMP and WMP, and while prices dipped as expected, th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news bond markets are increasingly worried about what will transpire from the US CPI data for August later this week, and the US Fed's reaction next week.

First today, American inflation expectations seem to be rising. In August they came in at 3.2%, their highest in three months. While that is higher than ye...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news American right-wing swamp populism is driving the world's economy into a blind alley. Other countries are trying to figure out how to separate themselves from that.

In the week ahead, financial markets will be assessing the risks of stagflation after the weaker labour market report in the US, and the growing ex...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news financial markets can now taste a US Fed rate cut.

Today, all eye are on tomorrow's August non-farm payrolls report for the US. Analysts expect them to rise a minor +75,000 but overnight labour market data suggests that may be optimistic.

First, US initial jobless claims rose last week to 197,000 wh...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the world's largest economy is being hit today with a string of pessimistic data reports, despite one of the tech giants avoiding a breakup which saw its shares surge to a record high.

American job openings fell by 176,000 to 7.18 mln in July and that was the lowest level since September 2024 and we...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that US financial markets are back from holiday and concluding that the tech sector is over-valued and that US public policy is heading into a blind alley. The bond market sentiment we noted in the past month has now spread into the equity markets.

And you can see the rising risk av...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that while financial markets are quiet due to the US Labor Day holiday, the data being reported in the rest of the world is actually very encouraging, especially for the factory sectors.

In China, the private Caixin PMI has a new sponsor - RatingDog. It is still produced by S&P Gl...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news there was an unexpected turn in the US tariff situation late last week.

In a dramatic ruling, most of Trump’s global tariffs were declared illegal by a US appeals court that found he exceeded his authority in imposing them. He will almost certainly appeal to his Supreme Court.

Then...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news markets have brushed off the Nvidia result and chosen to extend their risk appetite. The S&P500 is at another new record high. But bond markets aren't so sure this is justified.

In the real world, US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week from the prior week, both in actual te...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news we need to brace for an end to the US Fed's independence. It may not be at risk right now, but the signs aren't promising. And politicians everywhere will seize on the mood to pull that level, to ease their own policies that don't deliver. The juice of monetary stimulus is just too en...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news of mixed and confusing economic signals from the world's largest economy where scoring own-goals is becoming an embedded feature of their economic management.

But first, there was an overnight Pulse dairy auction for both SMP and WMP and that delivered lower prices with the SMP price dropping -2.0% from the prior we...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that while much of the northern hemisphere is enjoying the last of their summer holidays, Chinese investors have returned in a bullish mood, and in contrast to the now-jaded US equity markets.

But first in the US, consumer credit bureau VantageScore is reporting that consumers with the best credit scores (superprime) ar...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news Fed boss Powell gave a hint at Jackson Hole that weaker American labour market conditions may trump inflation risks when they next meet in three weeks - and a rate cut is a live possibility.

Before that, Thursday NZT, the market darling Nvidia is set to report its results, and any va...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the financial world is waiting for Fed boss Powell's Jackson Hole scene setting speech.

In the meantime, US initial jobless claims held steady last week from the prior week at +195,000. But in fact seasonal factors should have produced a good fall. So seasonally adjusted, they are reporting an unexpected rise. The nu...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US Fed thinks inflation risks outweigh concerns about their labour market.

But first. in its familiar yoyo pattern, US mortgage applications fell last week by -1.4% from the prior week, but that makes then +10% higher than the same week a year ago. The softness over the past week is all re...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news commodity prices are taking a hit in global markets today as overall economic prospects are under scrutiny in both the US and China. And Wall Street is following them down, in their case led by tech firms.

Prices for both hard and soft commodities are in retreat today, including oil, natural ga...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news that attention will now turn to the annual Fed meeting in Jackson Hole, WO. This year Fed boss Powell is not only trying to balance US monetary policy settings between rising inflation pressures and a basically stable (and good) labour market, he also has to contend with a unstable fiscal policies and political pr...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news consumer hesitations are showing up the world's largest economies.

But first, our week ahead will be dominated by Wednesday's RBNZ OCR rate review, one that is widely expected, by both analysts and financial markets, to deliver a -25 bps cut. That will flow though to floating mortgage and savings rates, but it...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news tariff-costs seem to be having much more impact on US prices than on global trade.

But first, US initial jobless claims rose slightly last week to 199,000 but that was slightly lower than seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now just over 2 mln people on these benefits, +100,000 more than at th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news of a rare drop in bank lending in China from weak demand.

But first up today, we need to report that "due to a technical issue", yesterday's GDT Pulse Auction was cancelled prior to its completion.

Meanwhile in the US, and boosted by a very sharp surge in refinance ac...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news inflation is staying high in the US but retreating in India and Australia.

The US CPI inflation rate remained at 2.7% in July, the same as in June and below forecasts of 2.8%. Still it is worth noting that June's level caused Trump to fire the bearer of that news. But the level ha...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the US is deploying new shakedown tactics on its exporters to give some favoured tech companies tariff and national security export relief - if they pay.

However first, China's vehicle sales were up almost 15% in July from a year ago, following a nearly +14% rise in June. That means they sold 2.6 mln un...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news geopolitics will suck up all the headlines this week, but we will focus on how the world's economies are faring.

This coming week will have a focus on Australia, and the RBA's Tuesday cash rate target review. "Everyone" expects them to cut by -25 bps to 3.60% - the more so because th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with we are ending the week with Wall Street not finding much to like about future trade prospects, especially as policy shifts seem to be highly chaotic and involve personal retributions.

US initial jobless claims rose last week to +195,000 when seasonal factors indicated it would fall. There are now just over 2 mln people cl...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news in search of short-term riches, the Cook Islands is establishing itself as a haven base for deep sea mining, it be used by both great powers.

But first, American mortgage applications rose last week with a modest +3.1% gain from the prior week attributed to a small fall in benchmark mortgage interest ra...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the equity markets and the bond markets are flashing quite different signals, and equity markets seem quite out of step with the operating economic data. When these vary, there is usually a reckoning, and that usually (but not always) results in an equity correction.

But first up today, the overnight dairy au...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news tough economic news keeps coming, even during this lazy August vacation period in the northern hemisphere.

First, in the US factory orders were expected to retreat in June, consistent with the labour market and PMI signals - and they did. They were down -4.8% from May, although they are still up +6.6% fr...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news US President Trump is "making progress" is bending independent agencies (BLS, the US Fed) to respond to what is best for him, rather than the US economy.

But the week ahead will all be focused locally on Wednesdays Household Labour Force survey results for July. Our jobless rate is expected to ri...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news today is the day the US has promised to levy arbitrary tariffs but still no word about how Australia and New Zealand will fare. It's not the end of August 1 until later tomorrow in the US. In the meantime, Mexico has been the latest country to be granted a 90 day extension.

Me...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news a no-change Fed has brought sharp market reactions, bolstered by an odd tariff twist.

As expected, the US central bank left its key policy rates unchanged at the 4.25%–4.50% target range for a fifth consecutive meeting. They see the data pointing to 'a moderation in economic activity' during the first half of the y...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news the IMF says global growth is projected at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, an upward revision from the April 2025 World Economic Outlook. This reflects front-loading ahead of tariffs, lower effective tariff rates, better financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions.

But first, the overnight GDT Pulse dairy prices came in without th...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with talks are underway in Stockholm between the US and China over a trade/tariff deal. Prospects are not high.

And the recent EU-US deal has the makings of unravelling. Both France and Germany are unhappy about the outcome, made worse by the US claiming verbally pharmaceuticals have been excluded when the EU ne...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news - despite the US tariff news flooding the zone - the rest of the world economy is find a way to carry on.

But first we should note that a 15% tariff deal seems to have been concluded between the EU and the US but one that excludes drugs and aluminium. It lo...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news there are more tariff-deals being done, of the free trade type, but just not with the US and their mutually punitive style.

In the US, jobless claims dipped last week, mainly on seasonal factors. There are now 2,016,000 people on these benefits, +5.3% more than the 1,914,000 on them this time last year.

...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news of more big-country tariff negotiation updates.

But first, US mortgage applications were little-changed last week as their benchmark 30 year mortgage rate rose.

Meanwhile, American home resales fell in June from May to an annualised rate of under 4 mln and down -4.4% from June 2024. This was largely driven by declining sa...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news precious metals prices are having a moment - in US dollars at least, largely because the US dollar is extending its retreat. The same impact is affecting commodities like copper. Prices are rising in the US as a consequence of tariff-taxes which are pushing down the value of the greenback.

But fi...

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.

And today we lead with news China is having second thoughts about how some industries are operating with their super-competitive impulses.

But first, a widely followed American leading index tracker weakened in June. The US Conference Board's LEIcontinued its fall which started in mid 2022 and has picked up its pace of decline somewhat. The LEI fell by -2...