Renewed hopes of a US–Iran breakthrough briefly eased energy concerns before fading, leaving investors facing higher oil prices, persistent inflation risks and mounting European debt stress. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s strong quarterly results revived enthusiasm for AI, with booming computing revenue highlighting its growing ambitions beyond space. But shooting for the moon comes at a cost: enormous infrastructure investment, rising financing needs and growing credit concerns across smaller competitors. Meta’s results offer the next test for the broader AI trade. Can advertising growth and new products justify soaring spending? Bigger budgets could support chipmakers while pressuring cash flow. Softer plans...

European debt concerns, rising energy prices and fragile AI confidence test investors’ nerves. French unrest adds to fiscal and political uncertainty, while attractive Japanese bond yields raise questions about capital returning home and the consequences for global borrowing costs. US technology stocks have bounced, but weak Asian trading, Elice’s disappointing debut and resistance to Nscale’s valuation ambitions suggest investors are becoming more selective. Anthropic’s strong revenue growth offers encouragement, yet the AI spending boom still needs fresh money from paying customers to sustain it. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions keep oil elevated, with Russian diesel supplies offering only lim...

Market sentiment remains fragile as hotter US inflation, mixed bank earnings and growing concerns over AI financing test investors’ appetite. CoreWeave’s sharp stock and bond selloff has exposed an uncomfortable question: how long can the AI infrastructure boom rely on external financing before investors demand stronger returns? Money has moved towards US Treasuries and less technology-heavy stocks, but a slowdown in AI investment could reach far beyond chipmakers and cloud providers, affecting earnings, hiring and economic growth. This week, tech earnings led by Meta will put those nerves to another test. Strong spending plans could r Listen to find out...

Gold used to follow a simple rule: higher real yields meant lower prices. Since 2022, that relationship has weakened. Real yields surged, yet gold kept climbing. What changed? Why did March 2022 become such an important turning point? And does the old relationship still matter for where gold goes from here? Listen to find out more! Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC Private Bank in Geneva in relation to high and ultra-high net worth clients. In 2012, she started as FX Strategist at Swissquote Bank. She...

Another week, another quantum worry for crypto…

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Oil rises. Yields climb. And everyone wants another loan. Governments need buyers for their debt. AI giants need billions for chips. But how much can investors digest before asking for a better price? Technology stocks are still holding up, while the rest of the market looks increasingly uncomfortable. Strong Treasury demand offers only temporary relief, hawkish Fed minutes support the dollar, and France’s debt troubles put Europe’s fragile finances back under scrutiny. Even Germany’s reputation for safety faces questions as borrowing rises and industrial competitiveness weakens. Meanwhile, the AI financing feast continues. Can future revenues grow fast enough...

Not only is quantum a scare for crypto, now we also have a cryptography scare from AI?!

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Oil rises. Yields climb. And everyone wants another loan. Governments need buyers for their debt. AI giants need billions for chips. But how much can investors digest before asking for a better price? Technology stocks are still holding up, while the rest of the market looks increasingly uncomfortable. Strong Treasury demand offers only temporary relief, hawkish Fed minutes support the dollar, and France’s debt troubles put Europe’s fragile finances back under scrutiny. Even Germany’s reputation for safety faces questions as borrowing rises and industrial competitiveness weakens. Meanwhile, the AI financing feast continues. Can future revenues grow fast enough...

Record highs, unresolved risks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 climbed to fresh records as lower oil prices and easing bond yields offered relief. But crude is rebounding, yields remain elevated, and the underlying pressures have not disappeared. Yesterday’s US three-year Treasury auction cleared at its highest yield since 2006, with indirect participation below average. Today’s 10-year auction will test whether higher yields can attract investors willing to commit for longer despite inflation, fiscal and interest-rate risks. Meanwhile, recovering Gulf exports and emergency reserve releases ease immediate supply concerns, but depleted inventories and unresolved tensions leave oil vulnerable to renewed upsi...

US stocks are hovering near record highs, even as Treasury yields climb to levels last seen more than two decades ago. Strong AI demand is keeping growth expectations upbeat—but how much more pressure can technology stocks absorb? Meanwhile, a Tokyo-based fund’s exit from French government bonds highlights another potential risk: Japanese investors bringing money home. With domestic yields becoming more attractive, repatriation could support the yen, reinforce a carry trade unwind and reduce demand for overseas bonds, and eventually risk assets. Listen to find out more! Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk...

After a short crisis, NEAR is getting back up on its feet!

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Is Europe heading towards another debt crisis? France’s borrowing premium over Germany has surged to levels last seen during the 2011–2012 crisis, while the euro is falling as investors question the country’s fiscal outlook. The bigger risk is contagion. Other eurozone yield spreads are widening, although they remain far below crisis levels. This week’s government debt auctions will test whether investor appetite remains healthy outside France or whether the nervousness is spreading. Listen to find out more! Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Cantonale Vaudoise. She worked at HSBC...

US Treasury yields finally eased, yet the dollar gained sharply as investors looked for shelter on rising concerns about European sovereign debt. France’s widening yield spread over Germany raises uncomfortable questions about fiscal sustainability, political uncertainty and the cost of financing its debt. Higher yields do not automatically make French bonds a bargain: they may simply compensate investors for greater risk. Is France the new Greece? The comparison has limits, but the confidence spiral is familiar. And the implications extend beyond bonds, weighing on the euro and European equities while potentially supporting US assets. Later today, US payrolls remain a...

Stronger growth, stronger jobs and softer inflation: US data delivered a Goldilocks combination, but investors struggled to celebrate. Treasury yields climbed, with the US 10-year reaching 5.30%, weighing on the S&P 500 while the Nasdaq 100 held positive. Can AI earnings keep offsetting the pressure from rising yields? Micron delivered another strong earnings beat and upbeat revenue guidance, while HPE raised its networking growth outlook and announced a $1.2bn order from Vultr. Meanwhile, an FTC investigation into OpenAI and Anthropic adds another risk to the AI story. Across Europe, accelerating inflation strengthens expectations of further ECB tightening, yet the euro remains under...

The AI party is still on, but the foundations are cracking. Oil fell more than 5%, yet long-term US yields kept rising, the dollar strengthened and equities remained under pressure. Weak job openings and consumer confidence offered little comfort as investors grappled with inflation, debt and increasingly expensive borrowing. Attention now turns to US growth, jobs and inflation data. Strong activity could reinforce Fed hike expectations; weaker activity with stubborn inflation would leave markets facing a much less comfortable combination. Then comes Micron. Expectations are enormous, and a strong earnings beat may not be enough: guidance must convince investors that exceptional...

Oil prices and global yields continue to rise, putting pressure on equity valuations and supporting the US dollar. But beneath the move in US Treasuries, an interesting divergence is emerging. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate remains broadly stable around 2.3%, while real yields have risen sharply. This suggests that resilient US growth, increasingly hawkish Fed expectations and a higher real term premium – partly linked to heavy government borrowing – are playing an important role in pushing yields higher. Meanwhile, the US yield curve continues to flatten as the 2-year yield rises faster than the 10-year, raising fresh questions about a potential inversion. Coul...

Oil prices and global bond yields are rising again, putting investors in front of some difficult choices. Sovereign yields are becoming increasingly attractive, but structurally higher inflation could push them even further. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has become materially cheaper despite trading higher, as strong earnings growth has driven significant multiple compression and lifted the forward earnings yield to around 5.2%. This week, US inflation and labour-market data will test increasingly hawkish Fed expectations, while European inflation releases will shape the outlook for the ECB. In corporate news, Micron earnings will provide another major test for the AI trade, where expectations...

Rising oil prices and surging global bond yields are testing investors’ appetite for risk, but equities continue to show remarkable resilience. The question is whether the equity rally can withstand higher borrowing costs and what history can tell us. In 2007, US 10-year yields climbed above 5% while the S&P 500 continued to advance — until deteriorating credit conditions and the subprime crisis changed the picture. Today, strong earnings, fiscal spending and massive AI investment are helping markets absorb higher rates. But risks are building. Oracle’s latest data-centre developments highlight growing concerns around power availability, financing and who ultimately carries the cost of the...

Strong economic data came as bad news for markets. Surprisingly strong PMI figures from the US and Europe highlighted resilient growth, new orders and hiring, while persistent price pressures strengthened the case for further monetary tightening. US Treasury yields jumped across the curve, the dollar strengthened and technology stocks came under pressure as investors reassessed the Fed outlook. In FX, EURUSD is approaching a critical technical support, while USDJPY remains caught between widening yield differentials and the threat of Japanese intervention. Meanwhile, lower oil and diesel futures offer some relief, although energy costs remain elevated. Gold and Bitcoin are also...

🚀 What does it really take to build a startup in Silicon Valley? Oliviero Pinotti went from studying hospitality at EHL to teaching himself how to code, becoming an early engineer at a Y Combinator-backed startup, and eventually making it into Y Combinator himself. Today, he is building Alfera, an AI startup developing AI workers for businesses. 🎙️ In this episode of UNLOCKED, Oliviero takes us behind the Silicon Valley dream: the relentless pace, the pivots, the fundraising rejections and the reality of building a company from the ground up. He also breaks down what Europe gets wrong about startups, why execution often ma...

Oil prices are falling, but the relief across energy markets remains only partial. Diesel prices are surging to record highs as supply disruptions, elevated shipping costs and geopolitical tensions keep refined products under pressure. Meanwhile, Donald Trump has backed the idea of restricting US diesel exports to ease domestic prices — but if only it were that simple. Restricting exports could tighten global supply, push international diesel prices even higher and ultimately have consequences at home. Elsewhere, the US dollar remains well bid despite cheaper oil, while the SNB prepares for its latest policy decision and Bitcoin is rebounding alongside technology st...

Oil prices are retreating on Middle East peace hopes, while AI optimism is roaring back as Meta’s Muse AI fuels expectations for a new wave of agent-driven computing demand. The improved mood comes into a relatively quiet week for economic data and events. And if oil prices continue to retreat, the picture could brighten further: easing energy-driven inflation fears could pull global yields lower, relieve pressure on central banks and give risk appetite more room to run. Listen to find out more! Ipek Ozkardeskaya has begun her financial career in 2010 in the structured products desk of the Swiss Banque Ca...

What does it really take to reach financial freedom? 💰 Charlene started investing with just $500. A decade later, she had built a seven-figure portfolio and reached the point where she no longer had to rely on her corporate career. Her strategy? Surprisingly simple. 🎙️ In this episode of UNLOCKED, Charlene shares the journey behind her financial independence, from saving up to 50–60% of her income to building a simple, goal-driven investment strategy. She also breaks down the mistakes that hold investors back, from waiting for the “perfect” moment to home bias, overconfidence and unnecessary complexity. . . For informational purposes only. Not investment advice or a financial pr...

Currency interventions can create some of the most violent moves in FX markets. When authorities step in to defend a currency, crowded positions can unwind rapidly, triggering stop-losses, short squeezes and a surge in volatility. In this educational episode of Market Talk, we explore how FX interventions work, why positioning matters, and how traders can approach both sides of the intervention trade. We look at the Japanese yen and Swiss franc as examples, examine how authorities can exploit crowded positioning, and explain why an intervention can become much more powerful once the market starts doing part of the work. But...

Markets found some relief this week, but the underlying risks are far from resolved. Nvidia revived appetite for AI and semiconductor stocks, yet massive capex requirements, financing needs and shrinking free cash flow remain important concerns. Meanwhile, oil prices eased, and global inventories are falling more slowly than JP Morgan’s earlier “no-resolution” scenario had feared. That buys the world precious time — but not necessarily enough if Middle Eastern supply disruptions persist. Central banks are also walking a tightrope. The Bank of England overhauled its QT programme, the Fed raised rates to defend its inflation objective, and the Bank of Japan de...

The Fed delivered a widely expected 25bp rate hike, putting inflation firmly ahead of political pressure for lower interest rates. The decision triggered a hawkish market reaction, with short-term Treasury yields jumping, while the longer end and US equities showed a more contained response. Attention now turns to the Bank of England and Bank of Japan. The BoE faces an increasingly uncomfortable mix of persistent inflation, higher energy costs, fiscal concerns and a weakening labour market, making the path ahead particularly complicated. Meanwhile, the BoJ is expected to raise rates as policymakers try to contain renewed pressure on the yen. ...

During the recording it was unclear, but it looks like CLARITY was just denied.

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Markets are heading into the Fed decision with a clear message: a 25bp rate hike may actually be the less-bad option. With Fed funds futures overwhelmingly positioned for a hike, a surprise hold could raise uncomfortable questions about inflation credibility — especially as oil prices and Treasury yields move increasingly closely together. Broadly, the US 10-year yield has pushed above 5%, putting pressure on bonds, equity valuations and financing conditions. Yet not every company is equally vulnerable. Hyperscalers like Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon still generate returns on invested capital well above their cost of capital, giving them a substantial cushion against hi...

The AI trade is entering a new phase. Until now, investors worried about valuations, circular financing, soaring capex and whether massive spending on chips and data centres would eventually generate adequate returns. Now, the debate has shifted to the speed of AI development itself. That change is already creating unexpected winners and losers, as investors reconsider who benefits if the race for ever-larger frontier models slows. The consequences could also spill into the broader economy, where AI-related investment has become an important source of growth. Add surging energy prices, persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and expensive borrowing, and the timing is...

Oil prices are pushing higher as Middle East tensions intensify, while growing concerns about the pace of AI development are putting the technology trade under pressure. A potential AI slowdown also raises a bigger financial question: who pays for the massive data-centre leases, debt and power commitments accumulated during the AI boom? Meanwhile, central banks add another layer of uncertainty. The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan are expected to raise rates this week, increasing borrowing costs just as concerns about AI-led growth emerge. Technology-heavy markets, including the Kospi, TAIEX and Nasdaq, could remain particularly vulnerable, while higher oil prices...

Oil prices are soaring, inflation pressures are building and bond yields are flying. Brent crude hit $110 per barrel as Middle East tensions intensified, while US producer inflation accelerated to 5.4%, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of next week’s policy decision. Across the Atlantic, the ECB delivered a widely expected 25bp rate hike as Christine Lagarde warned that energy prices are increasing upside risks to inflation. Meanwhile, Donald Trump floated the idea of $5’000 cheques for American adults – a proposal that could potentially cost more than $1 trillion – just as concerns over US debt and fiscal discipline intensify. Treasury buybacks failed to calm...

Is this another step before a leg up or an actual quantum scare?

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Rising oil prices continue to fuel inflation fears, pushing global bond yields higher and putting pressure on equities. Even the US Treasury’s announcement to triple the size of today’s 10- to 20-year bond buyback has failed to calm the long end of the yield curve. Scott Bessent says he is “the house now”, but markets are clearly not playing along. And there is a delicious historical irony. Back in 1992, Bessent was on the other side of the table, working with George Soros as markets forced Britain out of the ERM on Black Wednesday. The lesson then? Fighting fundamentals can get...

Brent crude is approaching the psychological $100pb mark as geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions keep energy markets on edge. Falling global oil reserves, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and a potential recovery in Chinese crude demand could add further upside pressure to prices. Higher oil and gas prices are also reviving inflation concerns, pushing bond yields higher and complicating the outlook for central banks. Meanwhile, technology stocks continue to resist the broader risk-off mood, supported by fresh AI developments and major new partnerships. But the AI story has another side: massive capital spending, rising borrowing requirements, leveraged balance sheets...

Markets kicked off the week on a mixed note. Asian tech stocks followed Wall Street higher on renewed excitement around OpenAI and the race toward AGI, while European equities struggled under the weight of rising energy prices, weak German industrial production and expectations of an ECB rate hike. The major focus however was the sharp rise in the Japanese yen and the rising risk of a carry unwind. Years of cheap Japanese funding encouraged investors to borrow in yen and pile into higher-yielding assets, pushing classic carry pairs such as AUD/JPY to extreme levels. But today, with the Bank...

Strong US jobs data, rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields are increasing pressure on global markets — but tech stocks don’t seem to care. The latest US employment report strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates in September, while escalating Middle East tensions keep crude oil prices elevated and inflation risks alive. Yet AI enthusiasm continues to support tech valuations. OpenAI’s latest model launch boosted sentiment across the sector, with the rally spreading to Asian chipmakers and technology stocks. Meanwhile, bond markets remain under pressure as the US Treasury prepares bigger buybacks and some of the world’...

Markets are looking for relief as rising oil prices, sticky inflation and mounting debt keep global bond yields under pressure. Attention now turns to the US jobs report. A softer-than-expected print — ideally accompanied by softer wage growth — could give Fed doves more room, pull yields and the dollar lower, and support equity valuations. But strong jobs data could reinforce inflation fears and keep borrowing costs elevated. Meanwhile, hawkish policy expectations are building across major central banks, from the Fed to the BoJ, while elevated energy prices are creating very different winners and losers across global markets. Energy-heavy indices may provide some...

Oil remains the key driver across global markets, but could Venezuela help cool the pressure? The country is preparing to significantly boost production, thanks to US producers invstment. Yet not all oil is created equal. Venezuela’s crude is generally heavier and sourer than many Middle Eastern grades, making it harder and more expensive to transport and refine. So while additional Venezuelan barrels could weigh on global oil prices, they cannot simply replace disrupted Gulf supply. Meanwhile, elevated energy prices continue to fuel inflation concerns and hawkish central bank expectations. The ECB, BoJ, RBA, BoE and Fed are all facing pr...

BTC just needs a short breather before the next leg up?

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Rising oil prices are once again fueling global inflation fears and pushing bond yields sharply higher, challenging policymakers and investors alike. Global trade tensions are also deepening, and China found itself increasingly isolated at the latest G20 meeting, as concerns over its export-led growth model, industrial subsidies and excess capacity gained broader international support. In fact, Shein’s unimpressive Hong Kong debut is part of the same story. The changing global trade landscape is putting pressure on the business models of Shein, PDD and Alibaba, while potentially leaving developed economies to deal with deeper cost of living crisis. Listen to fi...