The Real Investment Show Podcast

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in October, but is another rate hike coming in December? And could the Fed's fight against inflation create bigger problems for the economy and financial markets? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged despite hotter inflation data, two dissenting policymakers, and growing concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy. The discussion explores whether the Fed is making a policy mistake by responding to oil-driven inflation with higher interest rates, potentially weakening consumer spending and an already fragile labor market. With the Fed planning fewer policy...

Google (Alphabet) shares are plunging nearly 10% following its latest earnings report, while Microsoft is moving higher. But does Google's sharp selloff present a buying opportunity, or could the stock fall even further? Lance Roberts examines the market's knee-jerk reaction to earnings, Google's increasingly oversold technical conditions, and why investors should resist the temptation to buy immediately after a major stock decline. With Google trading well below its 50-day moving average and momentum indicators flashing warning signs, the key is identifying when selling pressure begins to fade, buyers return, and technical buy signals emerge. Meanwhile, Microsoft's post-earnings strength presents a different...

Will the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision trigger a stock market rally or another selloff? With the S&P 500 testing key technical levels, major technology earnings approaching, and the midterm elections on the horizon, investors face important decisions heading into November. Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff of RIA Advisors answer viewer questions about the stock market outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, inflation, portfolio risk management, and retirement planning. The discussion begins with the Fed's inflation dilemma. Rising oil prices continue to pressure consumer costs, while artificial intelligence infrastructure spending and capital investment contribute to economic growth. Could another interest...

Wall Street faces a critical test as the Federal Reserve prepares its interest rate decision and major technology companies report earnings. Will the Fed raise rates again, or could another hike trigger an economic slowdown and stock market volatility? Lance Roberts examines why expectations for Fed policy have shifted dramatically in just one month, despite oil prices remaining near $100 per barrel. With inflation concerns, falling Treasury yields, and questions surrounding AI financing, the Fed's decision and accompanying commentary could determine the market's next move. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has reclaimed its 50-day moving average but remains trapped in a consolidation...

Wall Street is cashing in on the artificial intelligence boom, launching a wave of thematic ETFs targeting AI, robotics, cybersecurity, and emerging technologies. But are investors buying the next great opportunity, or chasing another speculative market bubble? Lance Roberts & Jon Penn examine whether the AI investment boom represents sustainable growth or another case of Wall Street capitalizing on investor enthusiasm. Are AI ETFs a smart way to capture long-term innovation, or are investors paying premium prices for opportunities that may already be priced into the market? The bigger question: By the time Wall Street creates an ETF around the hottest...

The S&P 500 bounced off its 100-day moving average, holding critical technical support as stock market futures point higher. Could this signal the beginning of a year-end rally, or will continued market consolidation keep investors waiting? Lance Roberts examines the stock market outlook for November and December, including historical market seasonality, the Santa Claus rally, and why the path to year-end gains is rarely a straight line. While November and December have historically been strong months for stocks, seasonal weakness around Thanksgiving, mutual fund distributions, and year-end portfolio rebalancing can create volatility and potential buying opportunities. Meanwhile, improving market breadth...

For decades, investors relied on bonds to protect their portfolios when stocks declined. But in 2026, stocks and bonds have begun falling together, raising questions about whether the traditional 60/40 portfolio still works. What changed? The answer may be oil. Lance Roberts examines how rising oil prices, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy disrupted the historical relationship between stocks and bonds—and why those same forces could eventually restore bonds' protective role. As energy prices fuel inflation and economic growth slows, could Treasury bonds become a safe haven again? We discuss stock-bond correlations, Treasury yields, portfolio diversification, and what investors should watch as th...

The S&P 500 is testing its 100-day moving average as markets remain trapped in a two-month consolidation range. With stocks approaching oversold conditions, will support hold and trigger a year-end rally, or is a deeper market correction ahead? In today's Before the Bell, Lance Roberts examines critical S&P 500 support levels, the growing divergence between market-cap-weighted and equal-weighted indexes, and a potential rotation back into beaten-down technology stocks as value sectors become overbought. Plus, Treasury yields are approaching oversold levels following their recent decline. Why could a rebound in the 10-year Treasury yield create an opportunity to take profits in...

Medicare Open Enrollment is here, but are you making the right choices for your retirement healthcare coverage? From Medicare Advantage and Medigap Plan G to prescription drug coverage and high-deductible health plans, understanding your options could help you avoid costly mistakes. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty break down the differences between Medicare Supplement policies, issue-age versus attained-age pricing, Medicare Advantage networks, and Part D prescription drug plans. We also discuss why reviewing your Annual Notice of Change matters, how to choose a Medicare broker, and when leaving your Health Savings Account (HSA) untouched could benefit your long-term retirement strategy. Plus, Halloween...

Is the Federal Reserve getting monetary policy wrong? The bond market may be sending a warning that the Fed is ignoring. With inflation, interest rates, and economic growth sending conflicting signals, the risk of a costly Federal Reserve policy mistake is growing. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine whether the Fed is misreading the economy, keeping interest rates restrictive for too long, or risking another inflationary surge by easing too soon. What are Treasury yields and the bond market telling us about the Fed's next move? And what could a monetary policy mistake mean for stocks, bonds, retirement portfolios, and your...

Stocks are under pressure despite strong earnings from major technology companies. With S&P 500 futures falling and the Nasdaq facing renewed selling, are investors preparing for a market correction, or is a breakout approaching? Lance Roberts examines why strong corporate earnings aren't enough to satisfy Wall Street's elevated expectations, how concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble are affecting technology stocks, and why the market may be correcting without a major crash. The S&P 500 remains trapped in a consolidation range, with tightening Bollinger Bands signaling a potentially significant move ahead. Meanwhile, rapid sector rotation, weakening momentum, and upcoming Magnificent...

Are stocks headed for a year-end rally, or is the AI investment boom creating new risks for investors? Today, we examine improving stock market breadth, the S&P 500's ongoing consolidation, and the outlook for a potential Santa Claus rally. We discuss whether artificial intelligence stocks are in a bubble, what constitutes an attractive valuation for Nvidia (NVDA), and the risks surrounding CoreWeave, Anthropic's delayed IPO, and growing AI data center infrastructure investments. We also explore the outlook for energy stocks (XLE), rising electricity demand from AI data centers, international investing risks, and whether it's time to reduce overseas exposure...

The S&P 500 remains trapped in a consolidation range as investors await the next decisive market move. Strong trading support and rapid rotation between technology and value stocks are keeping buyers and sellers evenly matched, despite a continuing momentum sell signal. Will corporate earnings trigger the next stock market breakout? With midterm elections approaching and year-end seasonality coming into focus, Lance Roberts examines market technicals, trading volume, and the potential catalysts that could finally break the market's sideways trend. The question isn't whether consolidation will end, but which direction stocks will move next. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance...

Is artificial intelligence making portfolio diversification more difficult than investors realize? AI-driven stocks dominate major market indexes, leaving investors potentially overexposed to a handful of technology companies, even when they own diversified index funds. Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn examine the hidden risks of AI-driven market concentration, the limitations of traditional diversification, and practical strategies for balancing portfolio risk without sacrificing long-term investment objectives. 0:00 - INTRO 1:00 - What Employment Reports & JOLTS Surveys Say 3:23 - Forward PE's are What the Entire Market Prices Off of 5:13 - S&P 500 Rallies Slightly, Still Trading Sideways 5:48 - Oil Price Rally Putting Pressure on Interest...

Oil prices are surging, but could an energy sector reversal be coming? Lance Roberts examines why extremely overbought crude oil prices may be signaling a near-term peak, with implications for inflation, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy, and the stock market. The S&P 500 remains in consolidation after testing its 100-day moving average, while sector rotation continues. Technology stocks have weakened as Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Materials, and Financials gain strength. Energy remains unusually extended, raising the possibility of a sharp correction. Should investors take profits in energy stocks and rebalance portfolio risk? Lance explains the technical signals to watch and previews...

Is inflation here to stay, or could higher prices eventually correct themselves? Lance Roberts explains why the difference between "good" and "bad" inflation matters for the Federal Reserve, interest rates, Treasury yields, and the stock market. We examine what inflation trends reveal about consumer purchasing power, Federal Reserve policy, bond yields, and the outlook for investors. Could today's inflation pressures eventually become tomorrow's economic weakness? 0:00 - INTRO 0:51 - Heavy Week of Earnings Driving markets 2:05 - Markets Sell off on Friday 3:52 - Markets Still Stuck in Same Consolidation Range (S&P vs RSP) 5:56 - Banks' Six Weeks' Sell Off = Opportunity? 8:18...

Technology stocks are under pressure as investors rotate from growth to value, while the S&P 500 approaches a critical test of its 100-day moving average. Following Friday's selloff, the market remains trapped in a two-month consolidation range, with a short-term momentum sell signal suggesting further downside pressure. AI-related suppliers and neocloud stocks suffered particularly sharp losses, even as broader market breadth improved. Lance Roberts examines how falling 10-year Treasury yields are fueling sector rotation, why equal-weight stocks are outperforming mega-cap technology, and whether oversold bank stocks could present a buying opportunity. Discover what shifting market leadership means for portfolio diversification...

How much does owning a dog or cat really cost over its lifetime? From adoption fees and food to veterinary care, pet insurance, and estate planning, pet ownership comes with financial obligations that can significantly affect your household budget. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty examine the true lifetime costs of pet ownership, including the differences between dogs and cats, unexpected healthcare expenses, dental care, travel arrangements, and ways to manage financial risks. Should pet expenses have their own line item in your financial plan? Is pet insurance worth the premiums? And what happens to your pets when you're no longer able...

Inflation remains stubbornly elevated, raising fresh questions about the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. Will the Fed hold rates higher for longer, or will slowing economic growth force policymakers to reconsider? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine the latest inflation trends, the Fed's interest rate outlook, and what persistent price pressures could mean for the stock market, Treasury yields, and investors. Can the Federal Reserve bring inflation under control without undermining economic growth? We discuss the challenges facing monetary policymakers, the risks of keeping interest rates elevated, and how changing inflation expectations could influence stocks, bonds, and portfolio...

Hotter-than-expected CPI inflation data sent stocks lower Wednesday, erasing the S&P 500's recent breakout to all-time highs and pushing markets back into the trading range that has persisted since August. With the index now threatening to test its 100-day moving average, is a larger correction developing, or is this simply normal October market behavior? Lance Roberts examines why improving market breadth and a rotation from growth to value stocks may be helping stabilize markets despite weakness in Technology and semiconductor shares. The equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) is showing signs of recovery, while Healthcare, Financials, and Energy are attracting renewed...

What do the latest economic developments, stock market trends, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical events mean for your investments and retirement plans? Join Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff for Q&A Wednesday as we examine the past week's financial headlines, market volatility, interest rates, Treasury yields, and investment opportunities. 0:00 - INTRO 0:56 - CPI Day & Financials 3:23 - Rotation from Growth to Value 4:04 - Russell 2000 Breaks 200-DMA 7:07 - Allergies & Interest Rates and Real Estate 12:37 - Investment Capital Movement from Europe to US 13:05 - Bear markets vs Bull markets' behaviors 14:40 - What is the Longest the S&P 500 has been flat? 16:37 - Free...

The S&P 500 continues to hold steady, but beneath the surface, market weakness persists as investors rotate from growth stocks into value. Technology and semiconductor stocks are facing selling pressure, while mega-cap names like Apple, Alphabet (Google), and Nvidia help support the market-cap-weighted S&P 500. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000, S&P SmallCap 600, and S&P MidCap 400 reveal a different picture. Small-cap and mid-cap stocks continue to struggle, with weak market breadth and widening performance gaps across sectors. In today's Before the Bell, Lance Roberts examines the ongoing growth-to-value rotation, the divergence between major market indexes, and why sector selection and individual...

Is Gen Z gambling away its financial future? And with 10-year Treasury yields near 5%, are bonds finally offering investors a safer bet? Lance Roberts & Jon Penn examine two very different approaches to financial risk: the growing popularity of sports betting, online gambling, and speculative trading among younger Americans, and the potential investment opportunities emerging in the U.S. Treasury market. 0:00 - INTRO 1:12 - Bill King Recap* & Gen Z Gambling Preview 2:27 - Earnings Season Kicks off: Banks' Buying Opportunity? 4:35 - The Only Thing Holding Market Up is Technology & Energy 5:06 - Financials Will Drive Markets Today 10:01 - Financial Nihilism & Gen-Z 12:51 - Gambling...

The S&P 500 remains near all-time highs, but Technology and Energy are doing most of the heavy lifting. Financials, Utilities, and Real Estate continue to lag, exposing weakness beneath the broader market. In today's Before the Bell, Lance Roberts examines the pressure on bank stocks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS), as oversold conditions, earnings reactions, and emerging technical buy signals suggest a potential turning point. With some financial stocks trading near three-standard-deviation oversold levels, could an early selloff give way to afternoon buying? Lance explains why investors should avoid chasing the opening reaction, watch the 200-day moving...

What happens to the economy when population growth slows—or goes into reverse? Lance Roberts & Bill King explore the demographic forces reshaping the United States and the world, from falling birth rates and China's One Child Policy to immigration, aging populations, Social Security, housing, inflation, and the future of work. We examine what depopulation really means for economic growth and retirement sustainability, why demographic shifts could alter housing demand and labor markets, and how immigration policy may become increasingly important as countries compete for workers and intellectual capital. The conversation also looks at the geopolitical implications of India's population momentum ve...

Estate planning is about more than deciding who gets what. Poor planning, unequal circumstances among children, prior financial assistance, caregiver responsibilities, and mismatched inherited assets can create family conflicts that last for years. Richard Rosso and Jonathan McCarty discuss how to have the important conversations before an estate plan is finalized, including treating siblings differently when their circumstances are different, caregiver contracts for children who live nearby, inheritance stipulations, beneficiary alignment, and why "equal" isn't always the same as "fair." We also discuss sequence-of-returns risk, longevity planning, financial literacy in America, what children learn about money from their parents, the...

Is the Federal Reserve relying on a metric that cannot be reliably measured? Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan recently discussed the role of the Treasury term premium in determining whether rising long-term interest rates are doing some of the Fed's work for it. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine what the term premium actually represents, why different models disagree, and whether policymakers risk putting too much emphasis on an uncertain estimate when setting interest rates. 0:00 - INTRO 0:50 - Earnings Season & Optimistic Guidance 2:10 - Bond Auctions & Interest Rate Dynamics 3:42 - Markets Sitting at all-time highs... 4:38 - Earnings Announcements Should Help Support Markets 5:31...

The S&P 500's breakout to all-time highs is losing momentum. With stocks retreating into their recent trading range, is this a failed breakout or a healthy pullback before a stronger fourth-quarter rally? Lance Roberts examines the market's weakening breakout, key support levels at the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and why a short-term correction could help relieve overbought conditions. With earnings season approaching, corporate guidance could provide the next catalyst for stocks. Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields, today's bond auction, and continued weakness in small-cap and mid-cap stocks are complicating hopes for broader market participation. Historically, fourth-quarter returns during midterm...

Markets are pushing to record highs, but investors have plenty to question. Can the rally keep going as Treasury yields remain elevated, the labor market cools, AI enthusiasm drives Technology stocks, and geopolitical tensions continue to influence oil and inflation? Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff answer your questions from the YouTube live chat and examine the economic, geopolitical, and investing stories shaping markets right now. Bring your questions and join the conversation as we separate market signals from headlines and discuss what investors should be watching next. 0:00 - INTRO 1:00 - Fed Policy tease (Daily Market Commentary) 3:15 - Markets Hit a...

The S&P 500 is on the cusp of breaking out to new all-time highs after the NASDAQ has already pushed into record territory. With futures pointing higher and momentum turning positive, the question now is whether the S&P 500 can break above resistance and, more importantly, hold those gains. The setup has several potential tailwinds. Earnings season is approaching, oil prices have retreated sharply from recent highs, and interest rates appear extremely extended and vulnerable to a retracement. Lower oil prices and easing Treasury yields could reduce inflation concerns and provide additional short-term support for stocks. But markets are also...

You can earn a solid average return in retirement and still run out of money. The reason may be sequence of returns risk — the danger of suffering significant market losses early in retirement, while simultaneously withdrawing money from your portfolio. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn explain why the order of investment returns matters so much once you transition from saving to spending, and examine the math behind the 4% withdrawal rule, why early retirement losses can be so difficult to recover from, how taxes can increase the effective draw on a portfolio, and why starting market valuations matter. The goal isn't to pr...

The S&P 500 is on the cusp of breaking out to new all-time highs after the NASDAQ has already pushed into record territory. With futures pointing higher and momentum turning positive, the question now is whether the S&P 500 can break above resistance and, more importantly, hold those gains. The setup has several potential tailwinds. Earnings season is approaching, oil prices have retreated sharply from recent highs, and interest rates appear extremely extended and vulnerable to a retracement. Lower oil prices and easing Treasury yields could reduce inflation concerns and provide additional short-term support for stocks. But markets are also...

Can a strong year for stocks carry its momentum through the fourth quarter? History provides an interesting backdrop for the Q4 market outlook. Lance Roberts examines the forces that could shape markets through year-end, including rising earnings estimates, corporate buybacks, investor sentiment, liquidity, interest rates, and the continuing dominance of Technology. We'll also look at the other side of the setup: weak market breadth, elevated Treasury yields, narrow leadership, and the risk that strength in the major indexes may be masking weakness beneath the surface. 0:00 - INTRO 1:00 - Earnings Season Begins 3:20 - Friday Employment Weaker than Expected, as Falling Trend...

The S&P 500 remains resilient, but market breadth is telling a very different story. The percentage of stocks on bullish buy signals and those trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages has fallen sharply, even as the major index remains well above key technical support. Volatility remains subdued, momentum has cooled, and the S&P 500's previous deviation from its 200-DMA has narrowed without a major market decline. That leaves stocks caught between deteriorating participation beneath the surface and an index that continues to trade sideways. The next catalyst could be Q3 earnings season. With strong earnings growth expected...

Funeral planning may not be anyone's favorite financial-planning conversation, but making decisions now can save your family money, confusion, and difficult choices later. Richard Rosso and Jonathan McCarty take a surprisingly entertaining look at the financial side of planning your own funeral, from traditional burial and cremation to cemeteries, niches, pet burials, aquamation, becoming a tree, and even having your cremains launched into space. We'll examine funeral and burial costs, prepaid arrangements, inflation, cemetery pricing, add-ons, paperwork, and the importance of communicating your final wishes. Can locking in funeral costs today make financial sense? What decisions should you make in...

For years, investors lived by TINA: "There Is No Alternative" to stocks. With interest rates near zero and bond yields offering little income, equities dominated the investment landscape. But that math has changed. Today, Treasury yields are above 5%, investment-grade corporate bonds offer competitive income, and real yields have climbed to levels not seen in nearly two decades. Meanwhile, stock valuations remain historically elevated. That creates TIGA: "There Is a Good Alternative." Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine what the changing relationship between stocks and bonds means for portfolio diversification, why the equity risk premium has narrowed, and how investors can think...

Treasury yields have spiked, with the 10-Year Treasury around 5.29%, but the technical picture suggests rates may be getting stretched. Historically, extreme deviations from longer-term trends have often been followed by a retracement in yields, potentially creating a short-term trading opportunity in longer-duration bonds. Lance Roberts examines the 20-year history of Treasury yields, the current technical setup, and why heavy short positioning in bonds could amplify a reversal if rates begin to fall. This is not a long-term forecast for lower interest rates, but a look at what technical mean reversion could mean for bond prices over the next several weeks...

The major indexes remain near record territory, but beneath the surface, the picture is considerably more complicated. Technology continues to provide important support while market breadth has weakened, Treasury yields remain elevated, and small- and mid-cap stocks have faced greater pressure. Meanwhile, investors are weighing the Federal Reserve's latest rate hike, higher bond yields, oil prices, stretched areas of the market, Nvidia's massive stock buyback, and questions about whether Technology can continue carrying so much of the market's weight. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff take your questions directly from the YouTube live chat and discuss what these developments could mean for...

Markets remain stuck in consolidation, but beneath the major indexes, the picture looks considerably weaker. Only about 40% of stocks are trading above their 50-day moving averages, while small-caps, mid-caps, utilities, real estate, and financials have faced significant pressure. At the same time, the growing number of stocks hitting 52-week lows and falling below key moving averages may be pushing market breadth toward more extreme levels. Historically, those conditions can become contrarian signals as selling pressure becomes extended. As investors head into the fourth quarter, rising earnings estimates, the return of corporate buybacks, available market liquidity, and increasingly negative sentiment could...

Can even the wealthiest investors consistently beat the market? Recent data comparing the Forbes 400 with the S&P 500 raises an important question about investment performance, indexing, and the pursuit of market-beating returns. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn examine why Americans across generations remain uncertain about their future financial needs, and what that says about the importance of planning beyond portfolio performance. Then, we put a real-world income decision under the microscope: a 5-year Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuity (MYGA) yielding 6% versus a 5-year U.S. Treasury yielding 5%. Is the additional yield worth the differences in liquidity, guarantees, taxes, and risk? 0:00 - INTRO 1:00...