Nomura – The Week Ahead

We deep-dive into the imminent US midterm elections and preview key data and events next week. In the US, we're joined by a special guest. We also recap the FOMC meeting and preview the coming Payrolls report. Across Europe, we review the ECB policy meeting and preview the Bank of England meeting, with a rate hike widely expected. For Asia, we examine the BOJ decision this week, inflation data across the region, and expected rate hikes in Australia and Malaysia. Chapters: Mid-terms Special: 02:01, Americas: 13:58, Europe: 18:27, Japan: 22:42, Rest of Asia: 27:06

We preview several central bank decisions, and our special guest CW Chung, our Joint Head of APAC Equity Research, explains his constructive views on AI. We preview several central bank decisions, and our special guest CW Chung, our Joint Head of APAC Equity Research, explains his constructive views on AI. We preview decisions from the Fed, BoC, ECB, BOJ, RBNZ and BOT. We also have the UK budget on tap and provide an update on the situation in France. CW Chung, our Joint Head of APAC Equity Research, explains why he remains constructive on the tech sector amid recent...

Amid sticky US inflation and AI unwind concerns, we assess the Fed outlook, alongside UK resilience and the outlook for China. In the US, hotter-than-expected inflation data are is unlikely to force a Fed hike in October, while AI wobbles shouldn't impact the broader economy for now. In Europe, UK inflation and jobs data are is in focus, alongside a French fiscal vote. In Asia, we look at China's Q3 GDP data release and discuss the latest developments regarding EU-China trade policy. Chapters: US: 02:59; EMEA: 08:59; China: 14:34; Rest of Asia: 21:47

At our Nomura Research Forum in Bangkok, Fitch's Thomas Rookmaaker and Erich Arispe, heads of Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe sovereigns, respectively, discuss EM credit ratings which are facing multiple shocks.

Japan's working-age population isn't just aging anymore, its shrinking. But here's the paradox: fewer workers, rising productivity, rising GDP per capita and inflation. If you cannot fix the labor shortages, what do you do instead?

We take a deep-dive into French bond market turmoil, while tracking other risks and key events ahead. In Europe, we examine French and peripheral bond markets with special guest Marine Mazet. In the US, we preview coming inflation and growth data, and discuss the Fed outlook.  Across Asia, we cover the RBI's rate hike decision this week, inflation in China and expected policy tightening in Singapore. Chapters: Europe: 2:51; US: 8:44; Asia: 15:55; Australia: 21:52

Amid very volatile rate movements, we examine the impact of economic and political fundamentals on markets. In the US we analyse the latest labour market release, recent inflation data, and less-hawkish Fed-speak. In Europe, we discuss the French fiscal challenges have dominated the European newsflow alongside recent inflation data and how the ECB might react. In Asia we talk about why the RBI's rate hiking cycle may be different this time around, as well as the economy's broader vulnerabilities.

What's priced in? Risk premia vs real policy. 

Live from the Nomura London Macro Forum our lead economists discuss with Dr Mann, whether market pricing or consensus outlook is closer to BoE thinking. Amid elevated uncertainty, how far do rates need to rise? And, why the BoE can't rely on markets to tighten on its behalf.

Risk-off mode despite the Trump-Xi meeting, and ahead of US core PCE and jobs report, China PMIs, CPI in Europe, and a likely RBA hike. We offer some thoughts on the Trump-Xi summit, and preview core PCE and labor market data in the US. In Europe we discuss the latest on Germany's politics, the significance of widening long-end spreads and the upcoming CPI data. We expect an RBA hike, a pickup in China PMIs and a somewhat divergent inflation picture in Australia, Korea and Indonesia. Chapters: US: 02:34, China: 06:42, Rest of Asia: 12:31, Europe: 17:28

This week, we start with expectations for additional hikes by the Fed and BOJ this year. In Europe, we preview the Riksbank, Norges Bank, and SNB, which we all expect to stay on-hold. In Asia, we see Bank Indonesia standing pat, core inflation rising in Singapore and job growth rebounding in Australia.

Fragile bond markets seek relief; will central banks deliver? In the US, we review the August CPI and preview the FOMC meeting and Fed outlook. In Europe, we share our take on the ECB and the coming BOE meeting. Across Asia, we preview the BOJ meeting and key data in China and India. Chapters: US: 02:05, Europe: 05:48, Japan: 10:28, Rest of Asia: 14:53.

US rate pricing remains volatile between key data releases and contrasting Fed speak, but tightening by the ECB looks much more certain. US jobs data were resilient, leaving the market awaiting inflation data to ascertain the Fed's next move. In Europe we preview the ECB's upcoming rate decision and talk about Scandinavian inflation. Across Asia, we look at inflation and trade data and focus on the challenges facing Indonesia. Chapters: US: 02:02, Europe: 08:13, Asia: 15:25.

Central banks and rates in the spotlight. For North America, we preview the Bank of Canada policy meeting, US payrolls data, and discuss the central bank gathering at Jackson Hole. In Europe, we conduct an inflation deep-dive and examine hawkish ECB communication. Across Asia, we preview policy meetings in Malaysia and New Zealand, and key data across the region. Chapters: US: 02:23, Rates Special: 09:21, Europe 20:24, Asia: 25:59.

Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech comes into view, as do political risks in Europe and a range of Asian central banks. We discuss the Fed Chair's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole, the likely Fed path and US-Canada trade. In Europe, political developments are on the agenda ahead of a plethora of elections in the next year. In Asia, we preview rate decisions in Korea, Thailand and the Philippines. Chapters: US: 02:23, Europe: 9:42, Asia: 18:50

Preview of FOMC minutes, UK CPI, Riksbank, China activity data and BI, plus a special segment with Akshay Prasad, IWM Head of Investment Products & Advisory Solutions. We outline what to look out for in the FOMC minutes, UK CPI and labor market data, and the Riksbank decision. In Asia, we discuss China's tier-1 activity data and fiscal stimulus prospects, as well as the upcoming BI meeting. Special guest: Akshay Prasad, IWM Head of Investment Products & Advisory Solutions, discusses new initiatives and portfolio construction in volatile markets. Chapters: US: 02:30, Europe: 07:08, China: 13:28, Rest of Asia: 20:08.

The uncertain oil outlook remains a key theme, while markets await the US CPI report for fresh Fed clues. In the US, we share our forecasts for the coming CPI and retail sales releases and our Fed outlook. In Europe, we preview the central bank meeting in Norway, August sentiment data and discuss the heatwave. In Japan, we examine the BOJ outlook, with fresh minutes to be released and following recent FX intervention to support the yen.  Across Asia, we preview key data ahead and the RBA policy meeting in Australia. Chapters: US: 02:24, Europe: 07:23, Japan: 11:13, Rest of Asia: 16:31.

Markets start to question Fed credibility, fiscal issues stay in focus for the UK, while Japan's monetary and FX policy come into the spotlight. We discuss the Fed Chair's mixed messages and preview next week's labour market release. In our special UK segment, we reflect on the BoE's "dovish" hold and discuss fiscal plans under the new PM. In Asia, the BOJ and JPY intervention are in focus, and we also look ahead to the RBI and regional CPI data ahead. Chapters: US: 02:49 Europe: 13:00, Japan: 25:19, Rest of Asia: 30:08.

Preview of the Fed, BOE, BOJ and MAS and a segment discussing market risks with special guest Vijay Sundaram, Global Head of Front Office Risk & Control. We discuss the Fed and BOE remaining on-hold, US core PCE inflation easing, and the latest on UK fiscal plans. Central banks in Japan and Singapore are in focus; we think both are likely to pause, but it is a much closer call for MAS than BOJ. Special guest: Vijay Sundaram, our Global Head of Front Office Risk, speaks about market risks and how risk management is evolving. Chapters: US: 02:27, Europe: 09:21, Japan: 16:28, Rest...

Europe comes back into focus ahead of the ECB and UK data, with a spotlight also on Korea and the "AI trade". For Europe, we look ahead to the ECB rate decision, preview UK inflation and labour market data, and discuss UK politics. In the US, we debate Fed Chair Warsh's recent comments and the latest soft inflation prints. In Asia, the focus is on Korea, the latest monetary policy decision and the impact of the AI/tech sector on the economy. Chapters: Europe: 01:51; US: 07:38; Korea: 14:00; Rest of Asia: 22:18.

Focus swings back to the Middle East, while we keep an eye out for 2 central bank meetings and key data ahead. In the US, we preview US CPI, retail sales and the Bank of Canada policy meeting. In Europe, we touch on UK GDP data, and discuss politics in the UK and France. In Asia, we share our forecasts for key monthly activity and Q2 GDP data in China, inflation in India, and GDP growth in Singapore.  Chapters: US: 02:01, Europe: 11:13, China: 16:11, Asia: 22:01.

Following the Sintra Central Banking Forum, we discuss the ECB and Fed outlooks, and the impact of the latest labour market data on the latter. Fed Chair Warsh remains steadfast in avoiding forward guidance, but we see dovish hints in some of his comments. We look at the change in ECB rhetoric and softer inflation data which may signal only one more rate hike. In China, we focus on upcoming inflation data and how monetary and fiscal policy can respond. Chapters: US: 01:58, Europe: 09:24, China: 14:46, Asia: 22:37.

Tracking second-round inflation effects from oil, and a second round of USD strength. In the US, we examine the latest inflation clues, the Fed outlook and the coming payrolls report. In Europe, we preview the central bank gathering in Sintra, the ECB outlook and June inflation data. In Japan, we look at key activity data and policy developments, both monetary and fiscal. Across Asia, we preview PMI data in China and activity and inflation data in Korea. Chapters: US: 2:19, Europe: 08:44, Japan: 18:16, Asia: 17:27.

New Fed Chair Warsh moved markets meaningfully – we discuss how to think about US monetary policy from here. Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chair caused a big reaction in markets; we outline what to expect from US monetary policy from here. In Europe, we look at the increasing divergence in our ECB and Bank of England rate calls. In Asia, we discuss Bank Indonesia's recent hikes and the upcoming Bank of Thailand decision. Chapters: Rates Special: 01:53, US: 08:18, EMEA: 20:29, Asia: 24:18.

Dr. Leslie Teo, one of our eminent speakers at the Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA), discusses all things AI. Dr. Leslie Teo talks about his views on where economic value from AI is created over the long term and the monetization of large AI capex… as well as his thoughts on productivity gains to boost economic growth and where things stand on the 'job apocalypse" debate.

This week, we expect on-hold decisions by the Fed, BOE, SNB, Riksbank, Norges Bank, RBA and BI, but hikes by BOJ, BSP and CBC. We expect the Fed, BOE, SNB, Riksbank, Norges Bank, RBA and BI to all keep policy rates unchanged. By contrast, we see the BOJ, BSP, and CBC as likely to hike at a measured pace. Statements will be non-committal across the board, and all eyes on Fed Chair Warsh who will likely try to be balanced. Chapters: US:1:53, UK:9:05, Japan:14:54, Asia:14:59.

Eminent speakers at the Nomura Investment Forum Asia – Dr. Ng Eng Hen and Sir Richard Moore – discuss geopolitics, US-China relations, and the Middle East conflict. Dr Ng Eng Hen, formerly Singapore's Defence Minister, shares his thoughts on shifts in US policies and the implications for Asia. Sir Richard Moore, senior strategist at Sixth Street and former MI6 chief, weighs in on prospects of a long drawn-out war in Iran. 

Uncertainty in the Middle East continues, as key central bank meetings approach.

Chapters: US: 01:57, Japan: 11:56, Asia:15:50...

We discuss the economic impact and investment opportunities of geopolitical transitions, China shock, and the AI revolution reshaping Asia.

At the sidelines of Nomura's Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) in Singapore, we highlight key takeaways from our new anchor report "Asia Rewired." Shifts like the AI revolution and trade realignment are rewiring Asia, creating winners and losers as well as investment opportunities.  China, Malaysia, South Korea, Australia, and Singapore stand to benefit the most, while lower-income economies face some challenges.

This week, geopolitical tensions may be cooling but the fallout is rising with growth, inflation and central bank reactions evolving rapidly.

We look ahead to the US labour market data and the ongoing hawkish shift in Fed communications. In Asia, we preview the RBI's next meeting and look ahead at inflation data around the region. In Europe, we discuss what factors – such as inflation expectations – could shift our views on the ECB and BoE. Chapters: US: 2:27; Asia: 11:01; Europe: 17:09;

This week, after a sharp rise in global bond yields, we await key inflation data in the US and Euro area, and discuss the fallout in Asia. We preview US core PCE and Euro area inflation, discuss a change in our Fed forecasts, and update on UK politics. In Asia, we preview decisions by the BOK and RBNZ, as well as core inflation in Singapore. And, in a special segment, Albert Leung, our Head of Asia rates strategy, discusses rising global bond yields and opportunities in Asia. Chapters: US: 2:10; London: 11:02, Asia: 16:50; Special Market Segment: 23:51

This week, in the US, we examine the health of the consumer and the challenges facing incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. In Europe and the UK, we examine UK politics, key incoming data and ECB communication. In Japan, we discuss economics and geopolitics, with the visit from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week. Across Asia, we share our take on key data coming out in Japan and China, touch on the Trump/Xi meeting and preview the central bank meeting in Indonesia next week. Chapters: US: 2:08; Europe: 7:34; China: 13:07; Japan: 17:41; Asia: 22:04; Australia: 26:14

This week, in the US, we assess the latest strong/weak labour market data and look ahead to next week's inflation print. Politics is in focus in Asia, ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting and following India's state elections, with inflation data also due in both China and India. In Europe, we also discuss local politics in the UK and the recent changes to our ECB and BoE rate calls. Chapters: US: 2:00; China: 8:35; India: 18:35; Europe: 26:00

This week, in the US, we recap the FOMC meeting and key data and look ahead to the coming Payrolls report. In Europe, we review the ECB and BOE policy announcements and outlook, and preview central bank meetings in Sweden and Norway. Across Asia, we preview earnings data in Japan and the upcoming central bank meetings in Malaysia and Australia. And in a bonus special interview, Jon Cohn discusses the market backdrop. Chapters: US: 2:26; Market Special Segment: 10:19, Europe: 17:04; Japan: 22:25; Asia: 25:20; Australia: 29:13

This week, we preview decisions from the Fed, ECB, and BOE, but expect no fireworks. In Asia, the BOJ may sound hawkish but BOT is likely dovish. In a special segment, our head of Global Macro Research, Rob Subbaraman, argues that the bark of central banks will be bigger than their bite. Chapters: US: 2:10; Europe: 8:37; Japan: 15:48; Asia: 20:28; Central Banks Special Segment: 22:48

This week, we discuss our views on the ceasefire from a US perspective, the latest from the Fed, and fiscal policy in Europe. Rate decisions in Indonesia and Philippines are the focus in Asia, with a hike seen from the latter. We preview key UK labour market and inflation data, and European surveys, ahead of the BoE's April meeting. Chapters: US: 1:43; Asia: 10:20; Europe: 17:03

This week, we discuss our views on the ceasefire from a US perspective, the latest from the Fed, and fiscal policy in Europe. We preview key data such as China's Q1 GDP and India's March CPI, as well as the MAS decision. We feature our latest special reports on why China is looking resilient and whether Asian central banks will hike rates or not. Chapters: US: 1:51; Europe: 9:37; China: 15:41; Asia: 22:09

This week, we look back at the effects already being felt across the global economy. In the US, we preview employment and inflation releases, and outline why we pushed back the timing of our Fed cut expectations. In Europe, we discuss the latest inflation data, how this shock differs from 2022, and the political response to recent developments. In Asia, we note that the shock is evolving into broader supply shortages, preview March CPI prints, and discuss rate decisions by RBI, BoK, and RBNZ. Chapters: US: 2:25; Europe: 8:44; Asia: 14:56

With geopolitics and the US economy in focus at our Central Bankers' Seminar, we are delighted to bring two expert speakers to the podcast. Former Fed Governor and NEC Chair Lael Brainard discusses the outlook for the US economy and the path for the Federal reserve. Economic historian and geopolitical expert Niall Ferguson gives his views on the Iran war and how it will impact the geopolitical landscape in the short and long term.

This week, The Middle East conflict remains front and centre. In the US, we discuss the conflict and the health of the consumer and preview the March Payrolls report. In Europe, we compare the spike in oil and gas prices with the 2022 experience and examine recent survey and coming inflation data. Across Asia, we examine how the Middle East crisis is impacting China and Japan, and preview key data releases over the week ahead. Chapters: US: 2:15; Europe: 9:32; China: 14:54; Japan: 21:11;  Asia: 26:16

This week, we discuss our views on the policy signals from recent decisions by the Fed, ECB and BOE. In the Middle East, we continue to monitor the impact of the Iran conflict on their respective economies, and any signs of possible de-escalatio, or not. We also have a special segment with Craig Chan, our global head of FX strategy, discusses which currencies could be vulnerable versus those that are more resilient. Chapters: US: 1:45; Europe: 11:15; Special Segment - FX: 18:30