Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture

The conflict's credit effects should be limited to Israeli issuers, but an escalation that disrupts global energy and financial markets would widen the scope significantly.

Speakers: Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior VP-Sovereign Risk at Moody's Investors Service; Laura Perez,  Associate MD-Credit Strategy at Moody's Investors Service

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we delve into the reasons behind our outlook change, factors supporting the Aaa rating and opportunities to slow a decline in fiscal strength.

Speaker: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody’s Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss our forecasts for G20 economic growth and inflation next year, and what this means for companies, lenders and governments.

Speakers: Elena Duggar, MD-Credit Strategy; Madhavi Bokil, Senior VP-Credit Strategy

Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior VP-Sovereign

Related Research:

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss what is driving the recent fall in freight rates and what this could mean for the sector’s efforts to decarbonize and the global economy.

Guests: Daniel Harlid, VP-Senior Credit Officer within the Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody’s Investors Service

Our forecasts suggest a decline in debt/GDP ratios for around 80 of the 140 sovereigns we rate next year. However, social and environmental demands, coupled with higher-for-longer interest rates, pose larger fiscal challenges for some.

Guests: Marie Diron, MD – Global Sovereign Risk, and Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss the narrative around the dollar’s demise, the implications for the global economy and the viability of its rivals.

Guests: Al Wilson, Chief Credit Officer at Moody’s Investors Service (MIS), and William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss the hype around generative AI, which sectors and countries stand to gain most, and the risks they need to manage.

Guests: Vincent Gusdorf, Senior Vice President within the Digital Finance group at Moody’s Investors Service (MIS), and Christian Fang, VP-Senior Analyst in the Sovereign Risk group at MIS. 

Host: Matt Bridle, AVP within the Research Group at Moody’s Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we delve into the world of shadow banking, exploring its recent rapid growth, where we think the risks are, the challenges facing regulators, and the potential threats to financial stability.

Guests: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody’s Investors Service, and Michael Taylor, MD-Credit Strategy at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: Jennifer Wong, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody’s Investors Service

Barring gains in productivity, participation rates, skills, education and experience, the coming drag on growth and public finances will be significant.

Guests: Christian de Guzman, Senior Vice President/Manager at Moody’s Investors Service, and Anushka Shah, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

On this episode of the Big Picture podcast, our analysts explore the situation in labor markets and its broader implications for the global economy and corporate credit quality.

Guests: Yasmina Serghini, Managing Director within the Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service, and Gabriel Agostini, Assistant Vice President within the Credit Strategy and Research Group at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President – Senior Credit Office within the Sub-Sovereign Group at Moody’s Investors Service

As higher borrowing costs and structural shifts compound cyclical trends in commercial real estate, our analysts explain where the risks lie and how they could affect lenders and the broader economy. 

Guests: Ana Arsov, MD- Financial Institutions at Moody’s Investors Service, Keith Banhazl, MD-Structured Finance at Moody’s Investors Service and Matthias Hellstern, MD-Corporate Finance at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President within the Sovereign Risk team at Moody’s Investors Service

Policy rates may be approaching their peaks, but central bankers are unlikely to change course anytime soon. In this episode of The Big Picture podcast, we discuss what this means for credit risk.

Guests: Atsi Sheth, MD-Global Strategy & Research at Moody’s Investors Service, and Jorge Rodriguez-Valez, Senior Vice President within Global Strategy & Research at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President within the Sovereign Risk team at Moody’s Investors Service

The underutilization of women in the workforce has a huge cost in terms of lost productivity and economic output around the world. What progress has been made and what will it take for women to achieve parity in labor force participation, pay and management roles?

Guests: Dawn Holland, Director of Economic Research, Moody’s Analytics, and Raphaele Auberty, Analyst – Sub-sovereign Group, Moody’s Investors Service.

Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content on...

The chief economist of Moody’s Analytics joins host William Foster to discuss the consequences of debt limit brinkmanship for the US sovereign, the economy and global financial markets.   

Guest: Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics.

Host: William Foster, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

One year after Russia invaded Ukraine, European economies are confronting a plethora of challenges and a transformed geopolitical landscape. We discuss the trade-offs for Europe as it seeks long-term replacements for Russian gas supplies while keeping decarbonization plans on track, the prospects for certain countries in stabilizing their government debt levels, and how European policymakers are responding to the US Inflation Reduction Act. 

Guests: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Director, Bruegel.

Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys...

Home prices are falling in the US and Europe after a surge during COVID-19, as interest rates rise at a rapid clip and economic growth slows. On this episode, we discuss what’s different about this housing market downturn, particularly the big changes in mortgage lending since the global financial crisis, and why the credit performance of outstanding European mortgages will likely be much more uneven in the current higher interest rate environment compared with mortgages in the US. We also discuss why many US consumers will still struggle with home affordability even as home prices come down.

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ESG issues will come into sharp relief this year as corporate debt issuers grapple with growing scrutiny over their decarbonization plans, social risks intensify and the rules of the road for ESG investments evolve – all in an environment of heightened macroeconomic, financial and geopolitical risks. In this episode, we discuss the highlights of our recently published ESG Outlook and what are the key ESG trends that will shape credit quality in 2023.

Guests: Rahul Ghosh, Managing Director – Sustainable Finance, Moody’s Investors Service; Rebecca Karnovitz, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Environmental, Social and Governance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.<...

We discuss how recent geopolitical realignments and the splintering of international trade and financial flows will have credit effects for many sovereigns, and how deepening regionalization, not globalization, may be the trend of the future.

Guests: Anne Van Praagh, Managing Director, Global Sovereign Risk, Moody’s Investors Service; and Shannon K. O’Neil, Vice President, Deputy Director of Studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies, Council on Foreign Relations.

Host: William Foster, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group.

To read more on this topic, visit The Big Pictu...

On this episode, we assess the major policy announcements from the COP27 climate summit and what they mean for the sovereign and corporate credit environment and for climate risk modeling. We discuss the “loss and damage” agreement on providing aid to poorer countries that have suffered some of the worst effects of climate change, innovations in climate finance, and what new technologies will be needed to bring about carbon transition of hard-to-abate business sectors.

Guests: Marie Diron, Managing Director – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Swami Venkataraman, Associate Managing Director – Environmental, Social and Governance, Moody’s Investors Serv...

In this special episode to coincide with the publication of Moody’s 2023 Global Credit Conditions Outlook, we discuss how persistent inflation, rising interest rates and slowing growth will cast a cloud over the borrowing environment next year. We look at the factors that make this turn in the credit cycle unique, and the likely path for corporate and sovereign defaults. We also examine why social challenges are a risk we are watching especially closely, and where there could be potential for positive economic surprises that would help stabilize credit conditions.

Guests: Elena Duggar and Colin Ellis, Managing Di...

Long-time emerging markets investor Mark Mobius speaks with Atsi Sheth of Moody’s about the risks and opportunities in the current macroeconomic environment, effects of the strong dollar, and the outlook for cryptocurrencies as an asset class. This interview took place on the sidelines of Moody’s recent South Africa Risk Summit in Johannesburg, and also touches on Dr. Mobius’s views on investing in Africa and how he thinks increased digitalization of economies will play a large role in improving governance frameworks across the continent.

Guests: Mark Mobius, Founder and Partner, Mobius Capital Partners LLP; Atsi Sheth...

For banks in the US and Europe, this year’s sharp climb in interest rates has been positive for their performance, helping lift net interest income and net interest margins. But the higher rate environment could become unfavorable for banks as margin improvement begins to taper off and higher credit costs take hold. How are banks preparing? What do prior monetary policy cycles tell us about the correlation between higher interest rates and margin performance? And what happens if borrowers can no longer afford their higher debt-service obligations, especially if the economy weakens further?

Guests: Jorge Rodriguez-Valez, Se...

Early lights out at the Eiffel Tower. Lowered thermostats. Cold showers. Europe is bracing for a tough winter as it tries to scale back energy consumption to counter cuts in Russian gas flow and surging fuel prices. How are energy-intensive companies altering production to cope with the market disruption? What are the knock-on effects for other industries? And what policy paths are governments pursuing to soften the impact on households, and what are the risks?

Guests: Petter Bryman, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Matthias Hellstern, Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Inves...

More than two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many US office workers still are not back at their desks, as many have embraced work-from-home and other flexible work arrangements. How are commercial property owners, lenders and local governments adapting, and what does this mean for creditworthiness? What will it take to draw more workers back to the office? And how do the evolving workplace trends in the US compare with those in other parts of the world?

Guests: Ranjini Venkatesan, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Nicholas Samuels, Seni...

Growth of the G-20 economies will slow markedly this year after a strong rebound from the COVID-19 crisis in 2021, as high inflation erodes consumer purchasing power and central bank monetary policy has become more hawkish. How are the uncertain macro dynamics affecting the financing environment for corporate borrowers, and how vulnerable are lower-rated companies to a worsening economy? Is there a risk that central banks will overdo it and that higher interest rates become a catalyst for a recession? And why will the next few months be particularly critical in determining the path of the global economy?

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Cybersecurity risk is evolving in novel ways, with increasing potential to cause significant economic disruption and financial losses for attack victims as hackers become more sophisticated. Which sectors are most vulnerable? What types of entities have the best and worst cyber defenses? And how are organizations managing cyber risks?  

Guests: Jim Hempstead, Managing Director – Utilities, Moody’s Investors Service; Sarah Hibler, Associate Managing Director – Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Investors Service.

Host: William Foster, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.

To read more on this topic, visit 

The Big Pict...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed energy security to the top of the policy agenda in Europe, raising questions about whether the desire to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas will come at the expense of efforts to decarbonize the region’s economy. What are the options for European countries as they try to become more energy independent, and which countries are best placed to do so? And while there is no easy way to fill the energy gap in the short term, could the Russia-Ukraine crisis have the long-term effect of accelerating Europe’s pivot toward greate...

Soaring food and energy prices, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are stoking inflation and reducing households’ purchasing power in many countries. How are governments and companies trying to address affordability concerns, particularly for the poorest members of society? What will be the impact on consumption and economic growth? And what role might diminished living standards play in fomenting social and political risks?

Guests: Matt Robinson, Associate Managing Director – Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign, Moody’s Investors Service, and Joanna Fic, Senior Vice President – Public Project and Infrastructure Finance, Moody’s Investors Service.

Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice Preside...

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is fomenting new risks for the global economy and broader international relations. On this episode, a panel of Moody’s Investors Service analysts provide perspective on the spillover effects of the military conflict, from higher oil and food prices, to the growing number of refugees, and rising cybersecurity threats against critical infrastructure and other targets. 

Guests: Elena Nadtotchi, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Leroy Terrelonge, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Cyber Risk Group, and Evan Wohlmann, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service

Host: Wi...

Soaring commodities prices in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine are raising new questions about where inflation is headed, and whether supply chain stresses will be further exacerbated. We examine the root causes of current inflationary trends and how central banks will try to tame it. We also discuss whether moderate levels of inflation could be positive for the economy and the financial sector. 

Guests: Atsi Sheth, Managing Director, Global Strategy & Research, Moody’s Investors Service; Nick Hill, Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Investors Service.

Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Gr...

China was one of the few large economies to record growth during the pandemic crisis in 2020, but momentum has weakened in recent months. The loss of economic momentum comes as China has imposed strict COVID-19 lockdowns in some regions and its property sector is in the doldrums. What’s behind the recent slowdown and how is the world’s second-largest economy addressing its growth challenges? What is the effect on other economies? And how will the government’s pledges on multiple policy fronts – from reducing leverage to narrowing income inequality and accelerating the shift toward clean energy – reshape China’s economy ov...

Central banks around the world are studying and in some cases moving ahead with the creation of digital currencies that have the same value as physical cash. How do central bank-backed digital currencies work and how do they differ from other types of electronic financial assets such as cryptocurrencies and stablecoins? Could central bank digital currencies improve access to the financial systemand strengthen financial stability? And what kind of disruption will they bring for banks and other segments of the financial system? 

Guests: Colin Ellis, Managing Director – Credit Strategy, Moody’s Investors Service; Farooq Khan, Vice President – Senior Analy...

The pandemic crisis has revealed how disparities in income, healthcare access and educational opportunity can amplify the damage of an economic shock. As policymakers globally look to address these issues through initiatives such as the Next Generation EU Fund, the proposed Build Back Better plan in the US and China’s Common Prosperity agenda, a key question is whether policies aimed at bridging wealth gaps can mitigate the negative economic consequences of widening inequality. Also, is the squeeze of the middle class in some countries spurring greater demands for change, and could it fuel social unrest? And could rising infl...

Reaching net-zero carbon emissions targets will rely to a large extent on replacing fossil fuels with new innovations in areas such as hydrogen power, electric vehicle batteries, biofuels, and carbon capture and storage. Increased development of enabling technologies such as battery charging infrastructure will also play a big role. But do these technologies offer a realistic path toward helping countries meet their emissions targets? How quickly can they be scaled? And how will clean energy technology transform industries from airlines to utilities to automobiles in the coming decades?

Guests: Jennifer Chang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Public Project ＆ Infr...

Government indebtedness has surged as countries have battled COVID-19 and its economic fallout, following a decade of increased borrowing. Total debt across governments around the world soared to $83 trillion in 2020, up from $50 trillion in 2010. And this year, government debt is likely to exceed nonfinancial company debt for the first time in decades. What are the consequences of this borrowing binge for the broader economy? What happens when interest rates start to rise? And why is there such divergence between advanced and emerging market countries in how they are positioned to manage the situation?

Guests: Richard Cantor, Chief...

In our inaugural episode of The Big Picture podcast series, Michael Rowan of the Global Public Project and Infrastructure Finance team, Anne Van Praagh of the Sovereign team and Simon Harris of the Financial Institutions team share their perspectives on the increasing frequency of devastating climate events and how they affect debt issuers around the globe.

Read research related to this episode on The Big Picture topic page.

On Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture, hosts Sarah Carlson, William Foster and Jennifer Wong bring you insights from Moody’s analysts around the world on hot topics across fixed-income markets. Each episode will illuminate Moody’s thinking on the latest credit and economic developments, ranging from the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, to technological disruption, political shifts and climate change. Please join us as we explore what’s on the horizon for the global credit landscape.