Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture

Economists and investors are speculating about potential changes to US financial and exchange rate policies from a ‘Mar-a-Lago accord’, a set of ideas which include weakening the dollar to boost US manufacturing. We'll dive into what it is and the potential impact on the global financial system.

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

Guests: Mark Sobel, US chairman, Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF); Steven Kamin, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute (AEI)

Five years ago, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic. In this episode, we delve into the performance of corporate credit quality since then, including the sectors that thrived or struggled, the hidden credit stories and strategies that improved resilience.

Guests: Merxe Tudela, Associate Managing Director, Credit Strategy & Research, Moody’s Ratings; Jessica Gladstone, Managing Director, Credit Strategy and Guidance, Moody’s Ratings 

Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

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A barrage of executive orders and tariff actions are keeping markets on edge. We’ll dive into implications for a US economy that has outperformed expectations, the independence of government institutions and the Federal Reserve, and the outlook for already large fiscal deficits and debt. 

Guests: Nathan Sheets, Global Chief Economist, Citi; Robert Sockin, Senior Global Economist, Citi

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

In this follow-up episode on the wildfires in southern California, we explore the consequences for the utilities sector of the City of Los Angeles. We'll dive into the immediate financial effects of disaster relief and lost revenue, as well as the risks from potential legal liabilities which could cost the city billions.  

Guests: John Medina, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Ratings; Lori Treviño, Assistant Vice President, Moody’s Ratings 

Host: Colin Ellis, Head of Centre for Credit Research, Moody’s Ratings

The devastating ongoing wildfires in Los Angeles County are set to become the worst in California's history. In this episode, we discuss the effects on property owners, insurers and the state government, and what the damage could mean for the future of the insurance market in the state.

Guests: Jasper Cooper, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings; Matt Butler, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Ratings 

Host: Colin Ellis, Head of Centre for Credit Research, Moody’s Ratings

In this episode, we unpack the new Moody’s Ratings forecasts for the global economy and explain why there could be bright spots amid a myriad of risks. Join our analysts as they delve into topics like potential changes in US policy, the effects of stimulus on the Chinese economy, and whether Europe is headed for stagnation.

Guests: Marie Diron, Global Head of Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk at Moody’s Ratings; Madhavi Bokil, Head of Macro Research at Moody’s Ratings

Host: Colin Ellis, Head of Center for Credit Research, Moody’s Ratings

Policymakers and key stakeholders will soon converge on Baku, Azerbaijan for the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference to find ways of boosting spending on climate initiatives. Rahul Ghosh, Global Head of Sustainable Finance, and Marie Diron, Global Head of Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk at Moody’s Ratings, discuss the challenges, potential solutions, and expectations.

Speakers: Rahul Ghosh, Global Head of Sustainable Finance at Moody's Ratings; Marie Diron, Global Head of Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign Risk at Moody’s Ratings

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

In this joint Big Picture-Emerging Markets Decoded episode, our regional analysts highlight the key US policy areas to watch in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America -- and discuss which economies and sectors could be at risk if policies were to dramatically change.

Guests: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings; Gong Cheng, Managing Director, Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings; Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Credit Strategy, Moody's Ratings

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody's Ratings

Sarah Carlson is joined by the lead analyst for the US, William Foster, and Chief Credit Officer for the Americas, Elena Duggar, to discuss their expectations for fiscal, trade and immigration policy under both US presidential candidates, and what they could mean for the US economy and credit.

Speakers: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings; Elena Duggar, MD-Credit Strategy at Moody's Ratings

Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

In today’s episode, we’re joined by Hans Peter Lankes, Managing Director of the think tank ODI, as well as Kathrin Muehlbronner from Moody’s Ratings to discuss the effectiveness of recent reform proposals in increasing the lending capacity of multilateral development banks (MDBs) and what they think is needed for MDBs to better address global challenges like climate change, poverty, and inequality.

Speakers: Hans Peter Lankes, Managing Director of ODI; Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

China has rapidly become the largest producer of electric vehicles (EV) globally, with a nearly 40% increase in sales volume last year. In this episode, Colin Ellis talks with our analyst Gerwin Ho about the drivers behind this growth, how a drive to boost scale amid intense domestic competition has prompted them to look elsewhere and the difficulties they will encounter in boosting exports and setting up overseas production.

Speaker: Gerwin Ho, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Group at Moody's Ratings

Host: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Ratings

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China has rapidly become the largest producer of electric vehicles (EV) globally, with a nearly 40% increase in sales volume last year. In this episode, Colin Ellis talks with our analyst Gerwin Ho about the drivers behind this growth, how a drive to boost scale amid intense domestic competition has prompted them to look elsewhere and the difficulties they will encounter in boosting exports and setting up overseas production.

Speaker: Gerwin Ho, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Ratings

Host:  Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Ratings

Related Research:

With macroeconomic matters moderating, geopolitics has taken center stage with conflicts in the Middle East and elsewhere threatening the world order. In this episode, host Colin Ellis calls on NATO advisor and geopolitics expert Klaus Dodds to assess today’s political and environmental flash points. Dodds sees a “world full of wicked problems” and considers some pragmatic outcomes, including potential Ukrainian concessions to Russia.

Speaker: Klaus Dodds, Executive Dean and Professor of Geopolitics of the School of Life Sciences at Royal Holloway, University of London

Host:  Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Ratings

We forecast growing demand for cloud services, the adoption of new AI products and cryptocurrencies will see investment in new data center capacity exceed $2 trillion globally over the next five years. But real customer demand and continued technological improvements could limit the amount of data center capacity that is actually needed over the longer term. In this episode, John Medina explains what risks this uncertainty poses to investors in the corporate credit, leveraged loan, bank, CMBS, ABS, private credit and project finance markets.

Speaker: John Medina, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

Host: Colin Ellis...

On 7 July, France held the second and final round of legislative elections, which produced a shock upset for Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National party after strong first round. But with no clear path to a majority and France’s inexperience with broad political coalitions, the country now faces an uncertain political future. 

Sarah Carlson discusses what this could mean for the French sovereign rating and the rest of Europe.

Speaker: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

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The digital transformation of the global economy offers big opportunities for companies and governments but also increases their exposure to private and state-backed cyberattacks. In this episode, we talk about the recent rise in these attacks, how new advances like Gen AI are making them more sophisticated, their effects on our assessment of credit risk, and the strategies companies are adopting to protect themselves.

Speaker: Leroy Terrelonge, VP-Analyst/Cyber Credit Risk at Moody's Ratings

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

The lead analyst for the UK sovereign rating, Evan Wohlmann, joins Colin Ellis to discuss the potential outcomes, policy changes, and the role of Brexit and immigration in shaping the sovereign’s future rating trajectory.

Speaker: Evan Wohlmann, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Ratings

Host: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Ratings

Related Research:

Last week, President Biden announced that the US will increase tariffs on $18 billion of imports from China in sectors like electric vehicles, semiconductors and solar panels. In this episode, we review the implications of these measures on the US and Chinese economies, the individual sectors we rate, and for the future of US-China trade ties.

Speakers: Dima Cvetkova, Analyst/CSR at Moody's Ratings, Elena Duggar, MD-Credit Strategy at Moody's Ratings

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

The world of finance is always changing. There’s always a new kid on the block, and one of the fastest growing asset classes in recent years is this thing called private credit. But what exactly is private credit and what kind of risks does it pose? That’s the topic we will be discussing today with Christina Padgett, an associate managing director in our Corporate Finance Group. 

Speaker: Christina Padgett, Associate Managing Director at Moody's Ratings

Host: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Ratings

Following updates in the first quarter of this year, positive outlooks now outnumber the negative ones we assign to industry sectors globally. In this episode, we speak to Edmond DeForest about the drivers behinds these recent improvements despite the challenges facing the global economy and our expectations for business conditions in the next 12 to 18 months.

Speaker: Edmond DeForest, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

Host: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Ratings

The tone has shifted since the meetings last year to cautious optimism about a soft landing for the global economy. But stubborn inflation, budget constraints and geopolitics present growing concerns, particularly in light of recent events in the Middle East. In this episode, we sit down with Marie Diron and Sarah Carlson from the sovereign team to discuss what this means for the future direction of sovereign ratings.

Speakers: Marie Diron, MD-Global Sovereign Risk at Moody's Ratings; Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

It’s a long way to global net zero emissions but some industrial efforts are getting traction. Proof-of-concept has been established in steelmaking, where hydrogen can help replace coal, and in aviation, where some planes are taking to the skies on biofuel. In this episode, we discuss the early stages of this transformation and what it will take to keep it going.

Speaker: Rebecca Karnovitz, Vice President, Senior Credit Officer – ESG Group, Moody’s Ratings

Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Ratings 

Computers are not just on your desk. They're in your phones, your cars, your microwave. Even washing machines are now computers. And the demand for the computer chips that these products use is an increasing focus not just for investors but also for governments globally. In this episode, we discuss how this intervention is impacting the big players and where the market is headed with our lead analyst for Nvidia and Intel, Raj Joshi.

Speaker: Raj Joshi, Senior Vice President at Moody's Ratings

Host: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody's Ratings

The rate will likely decline to 3.6% by the end of 2024, from a 5% peak in January, as central banks begin lowering policy rates.

Speakers: Sharon Ou, VP-Sr Credit Officer/Mgr/CSR

Host: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist

Female labour participation rates have more than recovered losses sustained during the pandemic. The associated boost in economic activity and support to households is positive for a range of issuers.

Speakers: Dawn Holland, Director-Economic Research at Moody's Analytics; Ana Rayes, VP-Senior Analyst at Moody's Investors Service

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

Around €300 billion of European spec-grade corporate debt needs refinancing by 2026, but uncertain market access, slower growth and higher interest rates increase risks for some lower rated entities. 

Speaker: Martin Hallmark, Senior Vice President-CFG at Moody's Investors Service

Host: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody’s Investors Service

Since 2020, there have been 20 sovereign defaults, surpassing the total in the entire previous decade. What factors led to this point, where are they concentrated and will they continue?

Speakers: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service; David Rogovic, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody's Investors Service

Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

Strong policies, innovation and falling costs are set to propel green capital spending this year. However, a busy election calendar and slowing economic growth could temper that momentum.

Speaker: Rahul Ghosh, MD-Sustainable Finance at Moody's Investors Service

Host: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody’s Investors Service

A $4 billion fine for the cryptocurrency exchange Binance indicates greater regulatory focus that could bring more security and confidence to the crypto sector.

Speaker: Cristiano Ventricelli, VP-Senior Analyst/DFDA at Moody's Investors Service

Host: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody’s Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we delve into the factors underpinning our recent decision to change the outlook on the Chinese sovereign rating to negative.

Speaker: Gene Fang, Associate Managing Director - Sovereign Risk Group at Moody's Investors Service

Host: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody’s Investors Service

The conflict's credit effects should be limited to Israeli issuers, but an escalation that disrupts global energy and financial markets would widen the scope significantly.

Speakers: Kathrin Muehlbronner, Senior VP-Sovereign Risk at Moody's Investors Service; Laura Perez,  Associate MD-Credit Strategy at Moody's Investors Service

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we delve into the reasons behind our outlook change, factors supporting the Aaa rating and opportunities to slow a decline in fiscal strength.

Speaker: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody’s Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss our forecasts for G20 economic growth and inflation next year, and what this means for companies, lenders and governments.

Speakers: Elena Duggar, MD-Credit Strategy; Madhavi Bokil, Senior VP-Credit Strategy

Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior VP-Sovereign

Related Research:

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss what is driving the recent fall in freight rates and what this could mean for the sector’s efforts to decarbonize and the global economy.

Guests: Daniel Harlid, VP-Senior Credit Officer within the Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody’s Investors Service

Our forecasts suggest a decline in debt/GDP ratios for around 80 of the 140 sovereigns we rate next year. However, social and environmental demands, coupled with higher-for-longer interest rates, pose larger fiscal challenges for some.

Guests: Marie Diron, MD – Global Sovereign Risk, and Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss the narrative around the dollar’s demise, the implications for the global economy and the viability of its rivals.

Guests: Al Wilson, Chief Credit Officer at Moody’s Investors Service (MIS), and William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we discuss the hype around generative AI, which sectors and countries stand to gain most, and the risks they need to manage.

Guests: Vincent Gusdorf, Senior Vice President within the Digital Finance group at Moody’s Investors Service (MIS), and Christian Fang, VP-Senior Analyst in the Sovereign Risk group at MIS. 

Host: Matt Bridle, AVP within the Research Group at Moody’s Investors Service

In this episode of the Big Picture podcast, we delve into the world of shadow banking, exploring its recent rapid growth, where we think the risks are, the challenges facing regulators, and the potential threats to financial stability.

Guests: Colin Ellis, MD-Global Credit Strategist at Moody’s Investors Service, and Michael Taylor, MD-Credit Strategy at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: Jennifer Wong, VP-Sr Credit Officer at Moody’s Investors Service

Barring gains in productivity, participation rates, skills, education and experience, the coming drag on growth and public finances will be significant.

Guests: Christian de Guzman, Senior Vice President/Manager at Moody’s Investors Service, and Anushka Shah, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: William Foster, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service

On this episode of the Big Picture podcast, our analysts explore the situation in labor markets and its broader implications for the global economy and corporate credit quality.

Guests: Yasmina Serghini, Managing Director within the Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service, and Gabriel Agostini, Assistant Vice President within the Credit Strategy and Research Group at Moody’s Investors Service

Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President – Senior Credit Office within the Sub-Sovereign Group at Moody’s Investors Service