FICC Focus

Emerging market sovereigns are issuing hard-currency debt at the second-fastest pace on record, yet a deluge of offerings from price-insensitive investment grade issuers has driven up the cost of capital for frontier economies. John Tonelli, chairman & CEO of BancAtlantic Capital, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to share his outlook for debt financing and syndicated loans across EM, as rising competition has the potential to crowd out high yield borrowers. Tonelli and Sassower focus on investor appetite for frontier market debt, as tighter US financial conditions limit the extent to which speculative grade EM sovereign...

“What I’m hyper focused on is ... not losing money on the new money,” observes Michael Chaisanguanthum, managing director and head of restructuring for UBS Asset Management’s Credit Investments Group, reflecting on the disappointing performance of aggressive liability management exercises (LMEs). In this episode of the State of Distressed Debt podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel sit down with Michael to explore why lenders are increasingly abandoning the cutthroat in-group/out-group playbook in favor of broader creditor cooperation. The conversation unpacks why lenders may be better off letting borrowers pursue the deal-away from third-party lenders rather t...

Securitized assets offer ample opportunity for alpha generation, as structural complexity often results in market dislocation and mispriced credit risk. Liza Crawford and Peter Van Gelderen, co-heads of global securitized at TCW, join Bloomberg Intelligence chief EM fixed income strategist Damian Sassower to discuss their approach to securitized credit and asset-based lending in a more volatile interest rate environment. Crawford and Van Gelderen drill down into the various sectors, loan types and deal structures that investors can access across this rapidly evolving asset class.

With markets questioning how much further the Federal Reserve will tighten, the path of short-term rates may matter more for the yield curve than persistent fears about inflation or fiscal policy. John Velis, macro strategist for the Americas at BNY Mellon Markets, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss this and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Velis explains why he expects a December hike but is skeptical the Fed will deliver all the tightening priced for 2027, which could eventually create opportunities to receive rates. The two also discuss why the Treasury...

The UK’s “low-key fiscal event” budget means a fading fiscal premium, for now, and a focus on sterling’s carry appeal as the first BOE rate rise in the cycle looms. In this episode of the FX Moment podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence chief FX strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Ben Ford, FX strategist at Macro Hive in London, discuss sterling’s dynamics following the UK’s Oct. 28 budget and ahead of the Nov. 5 Bank of England policy meeting. The two examine sterling’s euro-proxy virtues during periods of French turmoil, validating BI’s 0.8250 euro-sterling view. Ford also touches on the bullish Swiss-franc view...

With stronger nominal growth, persistent inflation and an AI-driven investment boom reshaping the macro backdrop, investors may need to rethink traditional stock and bond allocations. Anwiti Bahuguna, co-chief investment officer of Northern Trust Asset Management, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss this and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Bahuguna explains why she sees the post-Covid economy as a new macro regime, how a more divided Federal Reserve could affect the pace of tightening and why strong wealth effects continue to support US consumers. The two also discuss Northern...

“The idea of patient capital is something of a dinosaur,” says Greg Peters, co-CIO for PGIM Credit, on the speed with which markets can reprice. “The rise of algos and CTAs, you’re just seeing a lot more volatility in the market.” Peters joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss the market function, why sovereign and AI funding needs risk crowding-out behavior in markets, particularly at the long end, and the importance of a new response function at the Federal Reserve. They explore relative value across the curve, whether the hypersca...

In this edition of All Options Considered, BI Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu discusses why US rates volatility has risen from its early-2026 lows but remains near longer-run historical averages rather than at an outright extreme. He also examines how higher forward rates may limit a return to those lows, where volatility is concentrated across the swaption surface and why risks priced by the options market are becoming more two-sided.

“We’re credit guys,” says James Cuby, partner and head of Europe for Waterfall Asset Management, when discussing asset selection and the right risk-return profile. “We’re not going to be able to generate a 30% return, and therefore an investor’s not going to be comfortable with a minus 20% return.” Cuby joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on the latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss Europe’s asset-based finance landscape, including the continued migration from banks into alternative credit providers, what lending models are built to navigate that evolution, and what it takes to compete given the aggressive flo...

With repo markets functioning smoothly but major structural changes approaching, investors are focused on funding conditions, Federal Reserve liquidity and the shift to mandatory Treasury clearing. Andrew Lazar, head of sales at Buckler Securities, joins Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to discuss these issues on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Lazar explains why softer demand for leverage has helped keep repo conditions calm, how Fed reserve-management purchases can provide liquidity during periods of stress and why central clearing could raise costs without ending Treasury basis trades. The group also discusses the F...

Global credit markets have stayed relatively calm through wars and sovereign crises like the one in France, despite swings in rates, making strategic insights essential. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, hosts BI’s global credit strategy team to discuss key research, data and views from around the world. Tim Tan and Jason Lee (Asia), Reto Bachmann (structured credit), Heema Patel (Europe) and Alice Zhou (US) share their outlooks and the key themes shaping their regions. Access their research on the Bloomberg Terminal at BI STRTA, BI STRT...

Looking across 200 years of history to the AI-driven energy boom, there’s a case that munis haven’t looked this good in a long time. On this episode of Masters of the Muniverse, Matt Gastall, head of municipal research and strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence, sits down with Mark Schmidt, CFA, executive director and head of municipal strategy and research at Morgan Stanley, for a fast-paced tour of today’s municipal bond market.

Masters of the Muniverse is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.

In this episode of the FX Moment podcast, recorded in Hong Kong, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Gary Ng, Senior Economist at Natixis CIB in Hong Kong, discuss Asia FX in 4Q and into 2027, with a focus on the yuan and the yen. The bottom line is that structural yuan bulls were validated into 4Q and may extend into 2027, with the 6.65 dollar-yuan reference value credible in the near to mid-term. This is mainly about a yuan-supportive balance of payments position and yuan appeal on global diversification strategies, while relative yield differentials are less of a driver...

With nominal GDP running above 6% year to date and earnings season kicking off, Mike Medeiros, macro strategist at Wellington Management, explains why corporate profitability has been well-supported and why that support may be fading, in his return to the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, hosted by Ira Jersey, chief interest-rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. The wide-ranging discussion on the macro backdrop heading into 4Q and beyond covers the Fed’s hiking cycle under Chairman Kevin Warsh, the shift away from forward guidance and why current policy rates may still not be sufficiently restrictive to bring core infl...

“Even when you think you’ve patched the last three holes ... what does it matter that you actually blocked one, two, and three if the company can still get there through route four?” observes Alex Diaz-Matos, Bloomberg Intelligence senior covenant analyst, on the game of whack-a-mole between creditors and borrowers in today’s bloated credit agreements. In this episode of the State of Distressed Debt podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Phil Brendel and Negisa Balluku sit down with Alex to explore the cutthroat tactics in liability management exercises and how Aston Martin, Electronic Arts, Xerox and Optimum Communications have used IP, join...

With the Federal Reserve confronting persistent inflation, strong demand and questions about how much further rates may need to rise, investors are also watching for potentially significant changes to the central bank’s communications and balance-sheet framework. Richard Clarida, Pacific Investment Management Co. managing director and global economic advisor and former Federal Reserve vice chair, joins Bloomberg Intelligence interest-rate strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Clarida explains why Kevin Warsh inherited an FOMC that had already shifted sharply toward tighter policy, why eliminating formal forward guida...

Credit and high yield are in the red for the year after a two-month selloff. Will 4Q deliver gains or more losses, and why? On this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 4Q26 Investor Survey and the market outlook with George Flynn, high-yield portfolio manager at New Capital, EFG International. They cover valuations and central bank actions, along with distress and default rates. The podcast also examines survey results on investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grad...

Asset allocators should prepare for continued bouts of volatility, as negative asymmetry in market fundamentals, valuations and technicals is causing investors to trim equity exposure and move up the capital stack. Trevor Slaven, Global Head of Asset Allocation and Multi-Asset Portfolio Solutions at Barings, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist, to assess the AI-induced transformation taking place across the global economy. Slaven and Sassower explore the impact of IT-related capital expenditure on labor markets, inflation expectations and corporate margins, with high-beta asset classes exposed to greater downside risk.

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With global bond yields at multi-decade highs and markets pricing further central-bank tightening, investors are reassessing the relative value of rates, equities and currencies. Christian Lawrence, chief cross-asset strategist at Rabobank, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Lawrence argues that the recent surge in Treasury yields has been driven more by real rates and strong growth than by rising inflation expectations, and says the latest move increasingly resembles a pain trade that could partially reverse. The two discuss how higher yields...

“You want to buy the security based on this yield, but you have to protect against the risks,” says Mike Vranos, CEO and founder of Ellington Management Group. “What you see is many investors just ignore the option they’re short or, in the extreme example, they ignore the left tail risk,” Vranos adds when discussing how to deliver alpha in securitized products. He joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Erica Adelberg and Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to discuss innovation in the mortgage-backed market during his time at Kidder Peabody and later at Ellington, the rise of non-quali...

“’Co-op first, ask questions later’ is down a bit from its peak, though not dead,” observes John Sobolewski, Global Chair of Latham & Watkins’ Liability Management Practice, as he addresses the latest dynamic between debtors and lenders in distressed situations. In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel sit down with John to explore the current state of Liability Management Exercises (LMEs) and why stakeholders are ultimately motivated to find negotiated resolutions over value-destroying, multiyear litigation. The conversation unpacks the delicate mechanics of these negotiations, including why repeat market players will give minority holdouts a fair shake but “hold the line”...

With AI investment accelerating, energy costs rising and Treasury yields pushing to multi-decade highs, investors are confronting a market where few assets look obviously cheap. Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer of Rockefeller Global Family Office, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Chang explains how the extraordinary scale of AI-related capital spending is supporting economic growth while also adding inflation pressure through shortages of power, semiconductors and other inputs. The two discuss why 10-year Treasury yields above 5% may be consistent with stron...

With the Federal Reserve beginning a new tightening cycle and markets pricing additional rate increases, investors are reassessing where the Treasury yield curve may be headed next. Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, discusses this and more in a solo Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Jersey explains why Chairman Kevin Warsh’s latest press conference offered a clearer view of the Fed’s reaction function, with resilient economic growth allowing policymakers to focus more directly on above-target inflation. Jersey outlines why BI expects another 50 bps of tightening, though likely at a slower pace than markets cu...

“We want to encourage risk-taking, but we want to encourage the right type of risk-taking, which is informed risk-taking,” says Colin Purdie, global CIO of public markets for Manulife Investment Management. In this episode of Credit Crunch, Purdie joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert to discuss portfolio construction and decentralized decision-making within a global platform. The two explore the material growth in equity and credit issuance to fund data centers, where the benefits of AI may accrue, why physical climate risk could be mispriced and where to find relative value. Purdie also explains why the 2022 gilt crisis was an import...

In this episode of the FX Moment podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to BI’s Chief Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey for a flavor on what to expect from the Fed at the Sept. 16 FOMC Meeting. The hotter-than-expected August CPI data is boosting the case for September policy action, though that isn’t a done deal and there’s still uncertainty as to what to expect on policy messaging and on whether any September action would mark the beginning of a tightening cycle or whether it’s more about removing some of 2025’s policy easing. The implications for...

The angst, consternation and hand-wringing over debt levels may be a contrarian indicator that rate markets are oversold, says Brendan Murphy, North American head of fixed income at Insight Investment Management. Murphy joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss the outlook for fixed income. Murphy attributes elevated yields to a stronger macro backdrop, persistent inflation uncertainty, the Fed leadership shift to Chair Kevin Warsh and fiscal concerns amplified by heavy AI-driven corporate issuance. He outlines Insight Investment’s base case that the Fed holds at its...

Cross-asset volatility has declined over summer even though the path of resistance for yields has been higher. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI’s Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu gives an update on macro dynamics, bond market volatility, yen, S&P 500 dispersion strategies and the fat tails on gas prices.

Emerging market equities have outperformed the S&P 500 by over 14% over the past year, as investors take advantage of attractive valuations, falling currency volatility and a more resilient macroeconomic backdrop. Malcolm Dorson, Senior EM Portfolio Manager and Head of the Active Investment Team at Global X, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the durability of thematic and idiosyncratic investment opportunities across the EM equity universe. Dorson and Sassower assess relative performance, foreign positioning and fund flows as institutional investors exhibit greater interest in moving down the EM capital structure.

With the latest energy shock pushing UK inflation higher while economic growth remains subdued, investors are questioning whether markets have priced too much Bank of England tightening. Jack Meaning, UK chief economist at Barclays, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Meaning explains why Barclays expects inflation to climb above 3% in the second half of 2026 but sees little evidence of the wage or second-round effects that would make the increase durable. The two discuss why keeping Bank Rate at 3.75% already represents a m...

Emerging market fund flows are accelerating as credit fundamentals continue to improve amid historically loose financial conditions, wide real yields and deteriorating US dollar demand. Genna Lozovsky, managing principal and chief investment officer of Sandglass Capital Management, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to share his outlook for special situations and distressed EM credit amid a historically tight spread environment. Lozovsky and Sassower focus on opportunities in off-the-run EM growth, distressed corporates and speculative-grade sovereign debt.

With US growth holding up and inflation still running above target, investors are weighing whether the Federal Reserve needs to tighten policy further or can afford to stay on hold. Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss this and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Matus argues that rate hikes would do little to address the forces currently supporting inflation while risking unnecessary damage to the broader economy, and explains why he expects the Fed to remain on hold. The two also di...

Global credit markets have stayed relatively calm through war and peace, despite swings in the rates markets, making strategic insights essential. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, hosts our global team to discuss key research, data and views from around the world. Tim Tan and Jason Lee in Asia, Reto Bachmann from structured credit, Heema Patel in Europe and Alice Zhou in the US share their outlooks and the key themes shaping their regions. Access their research on the Bloomberg Terminal at BI STRTA, BI STRTE and BI...

To demonstrate how the modern bankruptcy system often feels prepackaged and inevitable, Brown Rudnick’s Robert Stark compares the current state of Chapter 11 to a trip to the local bureaucracy: “We could do everything that is being done now by setting up bankruptcy at a DMV, go cut your deal in the back room, bring your $60 check, stand in line, and get a rubber stamp by the DMV.” Stark and Houlihan Lokey’s Saul Burian join Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel to explore the increasing friction in today’s bankruptcy courts, including the consequences of judge-led mediation...

With the Federal Reserve leaning toward a smaller balance sheet and several year-end funding pressures approaching, investors may need to pay closer attention to liquidity and the cost of financing leveraged positions. E.G. Fisher, chief investment officer at Mariner Investment Group, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Fisher explains why market liquidity remains strong but funding liquidity could become more challenging as bank reserves decline, the Treasury General Account grows and major balance-sheet reporting dates approach. The two discuss whether...

Municipal separately managed accounts (SMAs) have exploded 16-fold in market share, becoming a predominant investment vehicle in the post-global financial crisis world, with tight spreads and low ratios making alpha elusive. In this episode of Masters of the Muniverse, Bloomberg Intelligence’s new head of municipal research and strategy, Matthew Gastall, sits down with two guests from JPMorgan, the world’s second-largest SMA provider. Dan Freise, senior portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and Paul Jacobson, head of municipal strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, unpack active trading strategies, high-conviction sector positioning, and the critical market risks o...

“The pace and trajectory of private-market growth has simply outpaced the growth of bank balance sheets,” says Dadong Yan, head of Barings Portfolio Finance, explaining the success of the asset class and the opportunities that lie ahead. In this episode of Credit Crunch, Yan joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert to discuss the evolution of portfolio finance from a bank-dominated lending business to an institutional investment opportunity, and how institutional capital helps to fill the financing gap created in private markets. The two talk about the importance of disciplined underwriting, diversification and structural protections, while Yan argues that controlling lender...

Cooling inflation and a softer labor market are giving the Federal Reserve more room to remain patient, even as investors debate whether Kevin Warsh’s Fed could still deliver another rate increase. Chris Hodge, chief economist at Natixis, joins Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to discuss this and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Hodge explains why recent CPI and PPI data reinforce his view that disinflation remains intact, with tariff effects largely having passed through, housing pressures moderating and wage growth consistent with inflation moving closer to the Fed’s ta...

Rates and the new Fed are at the forefront of market headlines amid wide government bond yields. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, discusses how credit remains a safe haven in every crisis with Mohammed Kazmi, senior portfolio manager at Union Bancaire Privée. They dig deep into the new Fed policy, its operational changes and Fedspeak, and the impact on the yield curve and credit. They also discuss the impact of nominal growth on credit quality and defaults, why credit has been a safe haven and w...

South Korea has become a real-world case study in how market concentration, investor enthusiasm and leveraged ETFs can amplify volatility. In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tanvir Sandhu, Rena Kwok and Shirley Wong examine how leveraged products can create powerful feedback loops when positioning starts to outweigh fundamentals. They unpack the mechanics of ETF rebalancing, the role of AI and semiconductor enthusiasm in Korea’s recent market swings and the implications for brokerages, fixed-income investors and broader investment themes across Asia.

“We’ve gotten a little addicted post-2008 to the Fed guiding us,” says Michael Goosay, CIO and global head of fixed income for Principal Asset Management. “I’ve been doing this a very long time to remember when... we kind of had to guess at what the Fed did.” In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Goosay joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert to talk about the potential implication of a less-transparent Federal Reserve, while hitting on other key areas including investment grade and high yield credit, AI-driven corporate issuance, interest rates and global capital flows. The two also discuss p...