FICC Focus

To demonstrate how the modern bankruptcy system often feels prepackaged and inevitable, Brown Rudnick’s Robert Stark compares the current state of Chapter 11 to a trip to the local bureaucracy: “We could do everything that is being done now by setting up bankruptcy at a DMV, go cut your deal in the back room, bring your $60 check, stand in line, and get a rubber stamp by the DMV.” Stark and Houlihan Lokey’s Saul Burian join Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel to explore the increasing friction in today’s bankruptcy courts, including the consequences of judge-led mediation...

With the Federal Reserve leaning toward a smaller balance sheet and several year-end funding pressures approaching, investors may need to pay closer attention to liquidity and the cost of financing leveraged positions. E.G. Fisher, chief investment officer at Mariner Investment Group, joins Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss that and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Fisher explains why market liquidity remains strong but funding liquidity could become more challenging as bank reserves decline, the Treasury General Account grows and major balance-sheet reporting dates approach. The two discuss whether...

Municipal separately managed accounts (SMAs) have exploded 16-fold in market share, becoming a predominant investment vehicle in the post-global financial crisis world, with tight spreads and low ratios making alpha elusive. In this episode of Masters of the Muniverse, Bloomberg Intelligence’s new head of municipal research and strategy, Matthew Gastall, sits down with two guests from JPMorgan, the world’s second-largest SMA provider. Dan Freise, senior portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, and Paul Jacobson, head of municipal strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, unpack active trading strategies, high-conviction sector positioning, and the critical market risks o...

“The pace and trajectory of private-market growth has simply outpaced the growth of bank balance sheets,” says Dadong Yan, head of Barings Portfolio Finance, explaining the success of the asset class and the opportunities that lie ahead. In this episode of Credit Crunch, Yan joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert to discuss the evolution of portfolio finance from a bank-dominated lending business to an institutional investment opportunity, and how institutional capital helps to fill the financing gap created in private markets. The two talk about the importance of disciplined underwriting, diversification and structural protections, while Yan argues that controlling lender...

Cooling inflation and a softer labor market are giving the Federal Reserve more room to remain patient, even as investors debate whether Kevin Warsh’s Fed could still deliver another rate increase. Chris Hodge, chief economist at Natixis, joins Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to discuss this and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Hodge explains why recent CPI and PPI data reinforce his view that disinflation remains intact, with tariff effects largely having passed through, housing pressures moderating and wage growth consistent with inflation moving closer to the Fed’s ta...

Rates and the new Fed are at the forefront of market headlines amid wide government bond yields. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, discusses how credit remains a safe haven in every crisis with Mohammed Kazmi, senior portfolio manager at Union Bancaire Privée. They dig deep into the new Fed policy, its operational changes and Fedspeak, and the impact on the yield curve and credit. They also discuss the impact of nominal growth on credit quality and defaults, why credit has been a safe haven and w...

South Korea has become a real-world case study in how market concentration, investor enthusiasm and leveraged ETFs can amplify volatility. In this episode, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Tanvir Sandhu, Rena Kwok and Shirley Wong examine how leveraged products can create powerful feedback loops when positioning starts to outweigh fundamentals. They unpack the mechanics of ETF rebalancing, the role of AI and semiconductor enthusiasm in Korea’s recent market swings and the implications for brokerages, fixed-income investors and broader investment themes across Asia.

“We’ve gotten a little addicted post-2008 to the Fed guiding us,” says Michael Goosay, CIO and global head of fixed income for Principal Asset Management. “I’ve been doing this a very long time to remember when... we kind of had to guess at what the Fed did.” In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Goosay joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert to talk about the potential implication of a less-transparent Federal Reserve, while hitting on other key areas including investment grade and high yield credit, AI-driven corporate issuance, interest rates and global capital flows. The two also discuss p...

Emerging market local-currency government debt deserves a prominent place in global fixed income portfolios, as economic fundamentals remain resilient and the US dollar remains rich. Victoria Courmes, portfolio manager on GMO’s emerging country debt team, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the firm’s total return expectations through the second half of 2026. Courmes and Sassower identify undervalued sectors, explore alternative investment strategies and discuss the risk-return tradeoff in opportunistic frontier markets.

With the change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, investors are paying greater-than-usual attention to the outlook for short-term funding markets, money-market funds and the central bank’s balance sheet. Laurie Brignac, head of global liquidity at Invesco, joins Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategists Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman to discuss this and more on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Brignac explains why lending excess Treasury General Account balances into the repo market may create more operational risk than income, and why shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet would require changes to bank liquidity regulations befo...

In this episode of the FX Moment podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Chris Turner, head of FX strategy at ING Bank in London, discuss dollar-yen near- and mid-term dynamics. The combined shift in the dollar view following the July 29 Fed meeting, stretched long positioning and joint US-Japan FX intervention were the perfect catalysts for a sharp move lower in dollar-yen, yet the market is already questioning whether the move can be sustained. Childe-Freeman and Turner both see a risk of further joint FX intervention, which should keep dollar-yen bulls in check for now, while US eco...

“In the US today, what you see is... capital leaving the system out of the BDCs, and that’s creating a lot of technical pressure on the market,” says Robin Doumar, founder and managing partner of Park Square Capital. “So we should see better structures, better pricing, better terms.” In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Doumar joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert to discuss Park Square Capital’s founding, growth and evolution since its launch in 2004, as well as its prospects for future growth. The two discuss the shift toward institutional private credit from what was once a bank-dominat...

Kevin Warsh’s new communications approach may be creating more uncertainty for markets, not less. Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics chief US economist, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Wong discusses why Warsh’s latest press conference appeared to contribute to the selloff in long-dated Treasuries, how his reluctance to provide a clear policy framework raised questions about the Fed’s commitment to its inflation target and what changes could emerge from the central bank’s communications task force. They also examine whether the Fed could adopt Bank of En...

Emerging market equities are among this year’s top-performing asset classes globally as investors benefit from strengthening fundamentals, diminishing foreign-exchange volatility and a more resilient macroeconomic backdrop. Andrew Keiller, partner at Baillie Gifford, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed-income strategist, to assess the environment for thematic and idiosyncratic investment opportunities further down the EM capital structure. Keiller and Sassower discuss the durability of alpha generation, the formation of behavioral biases and structural inefficiencies across EM equity markets.

“There are a lot of people who would love to give away their prepayment option to get their family into the home they want,” says Adam Rilander, CIO and head of agency MBS strategies at Bright Meadow, an investment team within Mariner Investment Group. Rilander joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Erica Adelberg and Noel Hebert on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to discuss housing affordability, potential unintended consequences of mortgage policy, investment opportunities across the MBS landscape and why higher-coupon paper may be undervalued. Rilander and Adelberg also explore the pluses and minuses of mortgage lock-ins, builder buydowns, potential Basel...

Oil volatility and renewed geopolitical risk have complicated what had looked like a supportive backdrop for risk assets in 2026. Brian Levitt, Invesco’s chief global market strategist, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss why he still sees a constructive medium-term outlook for markets even as the war in the Middle East has shifted the global economy from expansion toward a slower-growth phase. Levitt explains why he believes the resilience of earnings and improving market breadth have made equities healthier than they appeared in 2024, despite in...

Emerging market hard-currency credit continues to outperform most major fixed-income asset classes, yet it also offers a wide range of tactical and relative value positioning. Marcelo Assalin, head of EM debt and portfolio manager at William Blair Investment Management, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed-income strategist, to discuss positioning and performance heading into 2H26. They also examine underlying valuations, with a focus on the fundamental and technical factors that are driving institutional interest in EM fixed income.

Housing affordability, mortgage-market modernization and changing refinance behavior are reshaping the outlook for mortgage-backed securities. Erica Adelberg, Bloomberg Intelligence MBS strategist, joins Ira Jersey, BI chief US interest-rate strategist, on this edition of the FICC Focus podcast, Macro Matters. Adelberg discusses how new credit-score models and lender choice could expand mortgage access while also complicating prepayment and credit analysis for MBS investors. The two also examine how technology and artificial intelligence are changing mortgage origination and servicing, why Rocket Mortgage’s growing servicing footprint could accelerate refinancing activity and how recent housing legislation could affect supply and financing at the...

On the face of it, index volatility has remained relatively subdued, but underneath there is significant rotation and elevated single-stock volatility. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna, to discuss equity volatility and flows.The All Options Considered podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

“The portfolio manager’s dilemma is, ‘Do I take risk, or do I not take risk?’” Noel McElreath, senior portfolio manager for US fixed income at Xponance, tells Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert. “And then, ‘What is excess return telling me?’” On this episode of Credit Crunch, the pair discuss the importance of disciplined credit selection, exploiting structural inefficiencies and maintaining a long-term perspective. McElreath notes that, though current market conditions are favorable, tight spreads, investor complacency and the surge in AI-related borrowing present valuation risk. The two also talk about the implications of having a new Fed chair, the importance of deale...

To illustrate how uniquely challenging the restructuring experience is for the unacquainted, C Street Advisory Group founder and CEO Jon Henes recalled a client CEO’s sentiment after complex, hardball restructuring negotiations: “Every time we walk into a room ... I feel like I’m in one big game of poker. Except you know what your cards are and you know what my cards are and you know what everybody in the room’s cards are and so do they. The only person who doesn’t know what anybody’s cards are is me ... And I’m the CEO of the company.”...

Darrell Duffie, the Adams Distinguished Professor of Management and Finance at Stanford Graduate School of Business, joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss how much the Federal Reserve can realistically shrink its balance sheet under Chair Kevin Warsh. Duffie argues that the real constraint isn’t on the asset side, but on the liability side of the Fed’s balance sheet, especially reserve balances, paper currency and the Treasury General Account. The two examine how payment-system needs, liquidity regulations and banks’ operational demand for reserves limit how far the Fed...

In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Win Thin, chief economist at Bank of Nassau 1982 Limited, discuss the US dollar outlook into 2H. They acknowledge the return of economics and yields as key FX drivers which implies that dollar strength may be the path of least resistance, at least in 3Q, and for as long as US economic exceptionalism dominates. Win and Audrey also share respective views on Fed policy, with low market conviction in the debate about rate cuts vs. rate hikes associated with low conviction about the near-term dollar view. Dolla...

Credit and high yield recovered all losses due to the Iran war in 2Q. Will 3Q keep delivering gains, and why? Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence global head of credit strategy, discusses the results of the BI 3Q26 Investor Survey and the market outlook with David Fancourt, High Yield Fund Manager at M&G Investments. They discuss valuations and central bank actions, along with distress and default rates. This podcast also covers survey results on investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, supply forecasts and relative value across asset classes (high grade vs. junk), geography (Europe vs. US), ratings and sectors.<...

“When you just think about the distribution of outcomes on corporate bonds from these levels of spreads, the cost of getting a few of them wrong can wipe out a quarter, or even a year of alpha in these sort of lower-return opportunity type environments,” says Connor Fitzgerald, fixed income portfolio manager for Wellington Management. Fitzgerald joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast and discusses his cautious but constructive credit view, with spreads offering limited compensation for risk, particularly in investment grade (IG). The two talk defensive positioning, disciplined security selection, positive convex...

Global credit markets swung through war and peace, making strategic insights essential for the second half of the year. Bloomberg Intelligence’s credit strategists have their sights set on 2H, but what do their outlooks hold? In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence’s global head of credit strategy, hosts BI’s global credit strategy team to discuss key research, data and views from around the world. Basel Al-Waqayan (Middle East), Tim Tan and Jason Lee (Asia), Reto Bachmann (structured credit), Heema Patel (Europe) and Sam Geier (US) share their outlooks and the key themes...

Bloomberg Intelligence Chief European Rates Strategist Huw Worthington joins Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss the latest moves from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and global rate markets. Worthington explains why the ECB’s recent rate hike may already look too aggressive now that oil and gas prices have fallen back, and why the market may be overpricing further tightening if euro-area inflation undershoots target in 2027 and 2028. The two also examine why Europe’s growth backdrop remains weaker than the US, how the ECB’s single inflation mandate differs fro...

“LLMs give us the opportunity to kind of rethink how much expected skill we can get out of our tools and techniques,” says Jeffrey Rosenberg, managing director and senior fixed income portfolio manager for BlackRock Systematic. “If deep fundamental value investing is dedicating 10,000 hours to create ... concentrated portfolios based on an expectation of high degrees of skill, maybe we can do something similar because the technology allows us to.” This is an evolution from a model focused on maximizing small advantages, according to Rosenberg, who joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast. The two di...

Emerging market credit index futures improve liquidity and balance-sheet efficiency, yet they also open the door to a wider range of tactical and relative-value trading opportunities. Lee Bartholomew, global head of derivative markets at Deutsche Börse, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the evolution of Eurex-listed EM credit index futures, with a focus on market structure and investor adoption. Bartholomew and Sassower discuss the potential for portfolio hedging, smart-beta overlays, basis trading and short positioning, as the universe of exchange-traded and unfunded EM credit exposure evolves.

With Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Federal Reserve chair behind him, the discourse can move to what it signals for monetary policy. Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong joins Ira Jersey on this edition of Macro Matters and argues that while Warsh avoided explicit forward guidance, his emphasis was on price stability, skepticism toward forecast precision and support for a shorter policy statement all point to a more hawkish lean than many investors expected. 

They discuss whether Warsh is pushing the Fed back toward a more Greenspan-like communication style, why she believes the dot plot could eventuall...

This edition of the All Options Considered podcast features a recording from the Bloomberg Volatility Forum held in Singapore on June 3. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Alison Williams, head of global strategy, delivers opening remarks, followed by a keynote presentation from Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu on multi-asset volatility strategy. The program also includes a panel discussion on derivatives markets featuring Oliver Chan, portfolio manager at Capula Investment Management; Stéphane Martin, APAC head of derivatives institutional sales at Optiver; and Ivan Nurminsky, portfolio manager at Dymon Asia. In addition, Diego Parrilla, chief investment officer at Quadriga Asset Managers, discusses “The Energy W...

“If there’s kind of a squeamishness about forum shopping in the US, there’s a little...it’s just overseas, there’s none at all,” observed Harvard Law Professor Jared Ellias. “There’s a great deal of pride and interest in building...an insolvency system that is equal and in some ways more useful than what they have in the United States.” Ellias sat down with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Negisa Balluku and Phil Brendel to discuss his new paper, “The Global Law of Debt,” co-authored with Narine Lalafaryan. Ellias traces how the historical entanglement of the New York and London debt market...

JPMorgan Asset Management sees a resilient economy facing multiple supply shocks, with inflation still largely supply-led and the Federal Reserve likely to remain on hold for now. Priya Misra, fixed-income portfolio manager at the firm and a manager of the JPMorgan Core Plus Bond ETF (JCPB Equity), joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to explain how she defines the “plus” in core-plus investing, from macro duration and curve views to allocations across securitized credit, high yield and mortgage convexity management. She also discusses what Kevin Warsh’s arrival as F...

Credit continues to rally despite the lack of a US-Iran peace deal, and it has served as a safe haven relative to rates. In this Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, global head of credit strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Souheir Asba, credit portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein, discuss how hyperscaler issuance and upcoming IPOs could affect the credit landscape through index and portfolio changes, and how investors should position for this wave of supply. They also compare credit performance with rates since the Iran war began, assess relative value across investment-grade, high-yield and rates markets and share sector outlooks...

Emerging markets are becoming a strategic focus for creditors looking to extract the complexity premium embedded in local markets. Atanas Bostandjiev, chairman and founder of Gemcorp Capital Management, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess the opportunities available to institutional investors with perpetual capital. Bostandjiev and Sassower discuss the durability of alpha generation, the formation of behavioral biases and the ability to capitalize on structural inefficiencies across EM.

Supply shocks, inflation risks and AI are reshaping the investment landscape, a theme that Lazard’s Chief Investment Officer Eric Van Nostrand discusses with Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Van Nostrand explains why macro matters more to markets now than it did for much of the past two decades, and why investors need to focus more on supply dynamics than traditional demand management. The two examine the inflationary consequences of the conflict in Iran, why Van Nostrand believes the market is underestimating the risk of persistently higher oil prices, and how those pressures com...

Recent euro-dollar price action has validated structural euro-dollar bulls, with the case for diversification strategies beyond the dollar still holding as we look to 2H and 2027. Yet this view is increasingly at risk from an evolving cyclical narrative, with an outperforming US economy and the potential for a hawkish tilt from the Federal Reserve likely to revive cyclical euro-dollar bears into 2H. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Laura Cooper, managing director and head of macro credit at Nuveen, discuss euro-dollar views into 2H. They also explore compelling FX views bey...

“There’s such an informational asymmetry between incumbent investors — the direct lenders who are in the deal and the sponsor — and new parties that it can be harder to bridge that bid-ask,” said Ensis Partners Co-Founder Richard Shinder, “Price transparency acts as a signal... and if you don’t have that price signal, that can be a deterrent to getting things done.” Shinder shared valuable insights into the rapidly evolving middle-market and private credit restructuring landscape in his conversation with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Phil Brendel at the Beard Group Distressed Investing Media Night in New York City on May 19. The discussion del...

Oil prices have become the key driver of global rates markets as conflict in the Middle East reshapes inflation expectations and policy outlooks. Matt Hornbach, Morgan Stanley’s global head of macro strategy, joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest-rate strategist, on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Hornbach explains why energy prices have been the dominant force behind moves in US and global bond markets, why longer-term inflation expectations have remained relatively contained and how the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh may react differently to oil at $80 vs. $110 a barrel. The two also discuss whether i...

Dispersion is rising across emerging markets, reflecting differences in external balances, policy flexibility and economic proximity to the war in Iran. Pablo Goldberg, EM fixed income portfolio manager at BlackRock, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief EM fixed income strategist, to assess institutional positioning and investor sentiment across the asset class, as real yields are attractive and fundamentals remain resilient. Goldberg and Sassower discuss inflation expectations, election risk, rating migration and the policy outlook across EMs amid ongoing developments in the Middle East.