Forward Guidance

The AI trade is cracking and the Fed is too boxed in to help.

This week, Felix and Quinn weigh what a fracturing AI story and stalled monetary policy mean for markets heading into year end.

We explore gold breaking to new lows, implied correlations spiking, Lagarde's exit and Europe's hike pricing, Big Tech capex cuts, and why oil is ripping into the midterms. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Brewers Win the World Series

02:39 Fed Holds With Two Hawkish Dissents

08:46 Lagarde...

Can anything stop oil's run when the SPR is already drained?

This week, we dig into why the oil squeeze is becoming structural, not just a Strait of Hormuz story.

We explore the oil curve trade, the Brent–WTI gap, tightening financial conditions, and crypto's slow bottoming process. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Markets In Turmoil, Round Two

01:25 Bonds Rip As The Nasdaq Drops 3%

02:29 Oil And Bonds Break Up

05:23 Why Nobody Wants The Oil Bull Case

09:45 Reading Th...

Is crypto finally rewarding the investors who do the work?

This week, we sit down with three top allocators at DAS Singapore to unpack where the real alpha lives in an early, uneven bull market.

We explore where crypto x AI actually works, building size in illiquid tokens, if $HYPE stays the consensus winner, and seed vs. growth for the next cycle. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:21 Where Is Crypto AI’s Edge?

07:10 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

07:43 Do AI Ag...

Is the AI trade now the only thing standing between the economy and a slowdown?

This week, we unpack why bonds are rallying through scalding inflation data and what that says about the current cycle and inflection point in markets.

We explore the collapse in October hike odds, why AI backstops favor debt over equity, the Russell's brutal losing streak, where to hide from a correlation shock, and whether the top is in for yields. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:06 Why Are...

Are onchain markets about to become the default way the world trades?

This week, Felix sits down live at DAS Singapore with Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat and Lighter's Vlad Novakovski to unpack the convergence of TradFi and crypto.

We explore 24/7 trading, why perps beat CFDs, pre-IPO and commodity perps, the CFTC path for US perps, and Robinhood Chain's first 100 days. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:14 Why Finance Is Moving Onchain

04:17 Can 24/7 Markets Stay Liquid?

06:33 Why Perps Are Going Mainstream<...

Can policymakers keep the AI boom alive without squeezing the rest of the economy?

This week, Aidan Garrib, PGM Global’s head of global macro strategy and research, joins us to explore the widening divide between Wall Street and Main Street.

We discuss what’s driving bond yields, housing’s squeeze, the debasement trade, and Europe’s policy trap. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:38 What’s Really Driving Bond Yields?

08:31 AI Booms While Housing Breaks

14:40 Can The Fed Get Yields...

The 10-year just closed at 5.22%, but the pain trade may be even higher.

This week, 40-year rates trading veteran DCP joins us as we examine the bond selloff and what it would take to actually break something and flip the pain trade in bonds.

We explore SOFR hike pricing, AI capex and private credit, diesel's hit to Main Street, market concentration, the quiet consumer stock bear market, and where DCP would finally get long. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:21 Why Bond Yields...

What happens when the Fed hikes into fading stimulus, slowing growth, and persistent inflation?

This week, we're joined by Vincent Deluard of StoneX Group to explore America’s emerging stagflation trap, AI’s economic support, and Europe’s potential Japan-style currency reset.

We also discuss the contrarian case for UK equities and Canada’s investment revival. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:34 Did The Fed Turn Too Hawkish?

08:10 The Stimulus Boom Is Fading

13:11 The Return Of Stagflation

21:06 Is The F...

Historically low volatility may be masking a meaningful shift in market risk and the AI trade.

This week, Macro Risk Advisors CEO and Alpha Exchange Host Dean Curnutt explains why unusually low stock correlations make tail hedging increasingly compelling.

We explore volatility pricing, crowded correlation trades, the Treasury market stress, why AI stocks could suddenly move together, and whether the Fed can calm markets. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

05:08 Why Stock Correlation Collapsed

10:49 What’s Driving The Dispersion Trade?

...

Bond investors are testing whether policymakers can suppress yields without reigniting the inflation they claim to fear.

This week, we unpack the political incentives, stubborn prices, and Fed’s looming credibility test currently testing markets.

We explore the massive increase to Treasury buybacks, a possible one-and-done hike, slowing AI-led growth, if debasement trades are due for a pause, and the growing bipartisan opposition toward AI . Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:07 Can Bessent Beat The Bond Market?

06:56 Should The 10-Year Yield Be...

The 60/40 portfolio was built for an old regime, but what replaces bonds when fiscal dominance and currency debasement become structural?

This week, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Proficio CIO Bob Haber join the show to explore how hard assets fit into modern portfolio construction.

We discuss how Bitcoin and gold, bond-market risk, fiscal dominance, precious metals, and the Fed’s shrinking influence come together to shape a new investing regime. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

04:38 Is The 60/40 Portfolio Broken?

10:23 From QE...

The macro establishment is turning on itself as Stan Druckenmiller challenges Scott Bessent’s efforts to suppress long-term Treasury yields.

This week, we unpack the Druck-Bessent clash and what it reveals about fiscal policy, Fed independence, and market intervention.

We also preview Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this week, potential bond-market manipulation, AI bubble risks, and whether the debasement trade is here to stay. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:43 Druckenmiller Calls Out Bessent

05:51 Is Druck Actually Helping Bessent?

08:42 Druck’s AI...

Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade.

This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in long-term yields and why it could reignite the rotation into hard assets as policymakers suppress yields and tolerate inflation.

We explore inflation, dollar weakness, AI financing, oil's ongoing supply shock, and where capital likely rotates next. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:17 Treasury Buybacks Change The Game

12:53 Is This Fi...

Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets.

Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different investing playbook.

We also discuss rising neutral rates, bond-market pressure, Fed credibility, capital scarcity, and systematic portfolio risk management. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:00 The Risk-On Reflation Regime

06:29 Why This Bull Market Feels Harder

14:54 The Fed Risks The Bond Market

20:57 Inside The Fe...

Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next.

This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to Shoten Capital, unpacking the shift toward state-directed growth and volatility suppression.

We explore Fed-Treasury coordination, the AI capex boom, energy abundance, and whether Bitcoin is approaching a turning point. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

00:58 Tyler's Farewell

04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime

06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility

15:11...

Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention.

This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of The Awesome Portfolio, to discuss why markets may be entering a new regime where risk management matters more than maximizing returns.

We explore Warsh's Fed strategy, the case for a steeper yield curve, why the AI trade may be masking economic weakness, how sentiment shifts after crowded trades unwind, and why gold and diversified...

AI’s leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates.

This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether markets have reached a genuine growth inflection.

We unpack the ongoing AI unwind, Warsh’s long-end strategy, the Fed's credibility shock, and the administration’s market choreography. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:45 Situational Awareness Liquidation

04:49 Why Leverage Fueled The Boom

07:51 Price Drives The Narrative

12:42 Did Market...

AI’s next phase hinges on a paradox: falling costs could threaten today’s winners while unlocking far greater demand.

Steve Hou, head of research at Silicon Data and former Bloomberg strategist, joins us to examine the changing economics of AI compute.

We discuss token efficiency, model routing, GPU pricing, memory bottlenecks, and when enterprise adoption may finally deliver measurable returns. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:01 Why AI Compute Needs Hedging

06:55 What The Token Index Really Shows

The market’s most crowded trade is beginning to crack, but where the fallout spreads next remains unclear.

This week, we dig into the violent momentum unwind and mounting pressure across the AI trade.

We explore the damage of leveraged ETFs, Korea’s retail reckoning, a potential value revival, renewed Iran oil risks, and why Quinn is bullish real estate in the right places. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:01 The Momentum Trade Unravels

06:22 Leveraged ETFs Are Breaking Mark...

Markets reward independent thinking, but only if you can avoid the traps that come with it.

This week, Brent Donnelly, President of Spectra Markets and author of Trade Outside the Box, joins us to discuss how psychology, risk management, and market narratives shape successful trading.

We explore poker's lessons for traders, AI's role in markets, Kevin Warsh's Fed, the dollar and yen, and why predicting people may matter more than predicting macro. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:00 Trading Outside...

Markets can look strongest just before their underlying assumptions begin to crack.

This week, we examine whether the AI-led growth narrative is beginning to unravel as positioning, macro data, and market structure all shift at once.

We discuss the AI momentum unwind, yen intervention, NFP & labor market weakness, Fed policy, gold, Bitcoin, and what we think is the next major trade. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:40 AI Momentum Starts To Crack

07:14 What Triggered The Selloff?

10:21...

Markets may be entering a fundamentally different monetary regime under Kevin Warsh.

This week, Bob Sheehan of Lighthouse Macro joins to explain why the Fed's evolving framework could reshape how investors interpret policy, economic data, and market pricing.

We discuss the end of the Fed put, rising rate volatility, Treasury curve dynamics, fiscal pressures, and why data-driven macro matters more than ever. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:04 Bob's Macro Background

09:21 Data-Driven Macro

13:13 The Fed Put...

The Fed scare that dominated markets may already be losing momentum. Now investors are asking what comes next as the AI trade, inflation picture, and market leadership evolve.

This week, we break down why the Fed may be nearing the end of its hiking cycle, how AI investment is reshaping markets, and where capital is rotating next.

We also discuss peak inflation, hyperscaler capex, market dispersion, active management, and why new leaders could replace the old winners. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00...

A new era at the Federal Reserve may be reshaping how markets think about rates, volatility, and the role of central banks. But is the market interpreting Kevin Warsh's first moves correctly?

This week, we break down Warsh's first FOMC meeting, the end of traditional forward guidance, and why they believe peak hawkishness may already be behind us despite the Fed's messaging.

We also discuss the AI capex boom, the future of Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, tightening liquidity, housing affordability, and whether markets are entering a fundamentally different regime. Enjoy!<...

A new Fed chair has arrived, and the implications could be far bigger than a single rate decision.

Joseph Wang, former Fed trader and creator of Fed Guy, joins Forward Guidance immediately after Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting to unpack what may be the beginning of a fundamental transformation of the Federal Reserve.

We discuss Warsh’s hawkish debut, the end of the forward guidance era, sweeping Fed task forces, potential changes to the inflation framework, AI and productivity, and why all of this could point to a mean...

In this special episode, Blockworks announces its acquisition of Messari and unpacks what it means for crypto’s next phase. Michael and Jason explore why Messari’s breadth of data, APIs, and research complement Blockworks’ deep on-chain analytics, investor relations, and disclosure products. They also address crypto’s trust problem, the need for standardized data and disclosures, and how Blockworks aims to become the trusted data layer connecting issuers, investors, exchanges, regulators, and AI agents in on-chain markets.

Learn more: https://blockworks.com/insights/blockworks-acquires-messari

Follow Blockworks on X: https...

Markets increasingly seem to respond more to intervention than fundamentals, raising a bigger question about what actually drives asset prices today.

This week, we discuss how policy intervention, systematic flows, and AI-driven capital allocation are reshaping market behavior and investor positioning.

We also explore volatility squeezes, Fed rate expectations, gold and oil, AI infrastructure spending, hyperscaler equity issuance, Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI, and the growing tension between technological progress and market centralization. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

05:11 Trump’s...

A seemingly simple Fed transition is becoming a massive stress test of the entire financial system as rising debt, inflation, and global energy crisis collide.

Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees joins to discuss Kevin Warsh’s looming challenge and why the Fed may soon face choices it can no longer avoid.

We explore the dollar versus bond market tradeoff, the impact of the Iran conflict and oil prices, China’s growing leverage, financial warfare, swap lines, and what it all means for stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and global mark...

While investors wait for a recession that never comes, AI spending and fiscal stimulus keep pouring fuel on the expansion.

David Cervantes of Pinebrook Capital joins to explain how AI spending is reshaping the economy, profits, and traditional market dynamics.

We also discuss productivity gains, consumer resilience, inflation risks, Fed policy, bond market reactions, energy markets, and David’s favorite international trade. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:59 AI Buildout Is Driving Macro

06:01 Profit Margins And Productivity

09:58 Supply Chains Sh...

This week, we're back to discuss whether the economy is entering an AI driven productivity boom and what that means for markets. We deep dive into whether the Fed should actually be hiking rates, growing signs of consumer weakness, how we're thinking about positioning in this environment and more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:22) Should The Fed Be Hiking Rates?

(07:53) The AI Productivity Boom

(14:28) An Update On Market Structure

(18:28) The Consumer Is Struggling

(36:21) How To Trade This Market

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FOLLOW...

This week, we're back to discuss the current AI driven market rally and wether or not it can continue. We then deep dive into the positive tailwinds for energy companies, the trillion dollar wave of IPO's in 2026, the bond market sell off, why active is outperforming and more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:42) The Bond Market Sell Off

(14:32) Can This Market Bubble Continue?

(29:06) Why Active is Outperforming Passive

(38:44) The Wave of Trillion Dollar IPOs

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FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – http...

Markets are partying like it’s 2021 again, but consumers are cracking, inflation is heating up, and policymakers may be losing control.

This week, we unpack the AI-driven melt-up in equities, the hidden stress building across Main Street, and why hyperscaler debt, derivatives mania, and rising bond yields are creating an increasingly unstable macro backdrop.

We also explore the consumer slowdown, Nvidia selling chips to China, tariff reversals, retail speculation, energy inflation, Fed paralysis, and the growing disconnect between capital markets and the real economy. Enjoy!

...

AI is holding up the economy, but the foundation underneath is getting harder to read.

Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro joins Forward Guidance to unpack why inflation, labor, and AI capex are reshaping the Fed’s path.

We cover the consumer squeeze, K-shaped spending, manufacturing data, Warsh’s Fed, and supply-shock volatility. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:54 The Real Inflation Story

06:26 Fed’s Higher Inflation Threshold

08:18 Why Labor Hasn't Broken

12:04 How To Read Supply...

Markets are ripping while geopolitical risk, inflation, and class tensions boil under the surface, creating a growing disconnect between booming asset prices and the economic reality facing most people.

This week, we break down the oil market, AI-driven growth, and the inflation dynamics shaping the global economy. We debate whether policymakers are intentionally running the economy hot to preserve growth and geopolitical leverage.

We also dive into gold, housing, AI job disruption, consumer weakness, inequality, and why the next political and economic cycle could look even more unstable than...

Inflation may be reaccelerating just as policymakers are mistaking inaction for restraint.

Danny Dayan joins the show to explain why passive easing, loose financial conditions, and supply shocks could leave the Fed behind the curve again.

We discuss inflation, oil, labor supply, neutral rates, risk assets, the dollar, commodities, and why the melt-up may continue. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

02:53 Why Is Growth So Strong?

07:31 How Forward Guidance Drives Policy

11:53 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

12:45 Why Oil Hasn’t...

Markets may be entering a volatile new regime where inflation, geopolitics, and policy fragmentation collide, challenging the stability investors have relied on for decades.

This week, we break down the latest Fed meeting and what it signals about shifting power from central banks toward fiscal and political forces shaping markets.

We also explore rising inflation pressures, fiscal dominance, oil shocks, Japan’s growing instability, and why traditional macro playbooks may no longer apply. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:08 Fed Di...

AI may be the most powerful economic force since the internet, but its true impact remains deeply uncertain.

Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg and a macroeconomist by training, joins us to unpack how AI is reshaping markets, investment cycles, and economic thinking. We explore whether this is just another bubble or something far more structural.

We dive into AI-driven capex, productivity illusions, labor market shifts, inflation dynamics, and whether AI can actually solve the U.S. debt problem. Enjoy!

...

Markets feel stable on the surface, but conflicting forces are building around Fed uncertainty, AI-driven growth, and structural imbalances that may not coexist for long.

This week, we break down break down the Warsh hearing and concerns over Fed credibility to a potential re-industrialization and what’s actually driving resilience in the economy.

We also explore AI-driven capex as the true growth engine, labor and credit dynamics, geopolitical pressures, dollar dominance, and the growing tension between asset inflation and societal change. Enjoy!

...

Liquidity may be sending a very different signal than most investors think, challenging the dominant narrative around growth, rates, and risk.

We sit down with Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital, a leading voice on global liquidity, to unpack where we are in the cycle and why his framework diverges from consensus views on markets and the economy.

We explore the liquidity vs. business cycle divide, yield curve dynamics, Treasury-driven liquidity, rising commodities, and why all signals may be pointing toward a late-cycle shift. Enjoy!

<...

Markets are ripping higher, but something underneath feels increasingly disconnected from reality.

This week, we break down the growing dominance of flows, derivatives, and policy over fundamentals, and what that means for how markets actually move.

We explore extreme positioning, retail chasing, sticky inflation, policy incentives into midterms, and why capital markets may be losing integrity in an environment driven by liquidity and narrative rather than fundamentals. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:20 Historic Rally, Broken Market

06:09 Dollar...