The Grant Williams Podcast

Marvin Barth of Thematic Markets returns to The Grant Williams Podcast for a conversation I think is particularly important—not because his recent forecast for the US midterm elections proved correct, but precisely because it didn’t. Before the election, Marvin laid out a carefully reasoned argument that conventional polling was missing a significant population of low-trust, politically disengaged voters who had gravitated towards Donald Trump. As it turned out, he was right about the polling errors but wrong about where those voters would ultimately place their support. Rather than quietly moving on, Marvin joins me to examine exactly what...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by returning guest, forensic accountant and investment analyst Steve Clapham for a wide-ranging conversation about what happens when markets built on cheap money, leverage and compelling narratives are forced to confront a rather less forgiving financial reality. We begin with the normalisation of interest rates, the mounting cost of servicing government debt and the growing strains on US finances before turning to private equity, where Steve argues that much of the industry’s extraordinary historic performance came not from operational brilliance but from falling rates, expanding multiples and leve...

Marvin Barth of Thematic Markets returns for a fascinating conversation about the approaching US midterm elections and why he believes the consensus view of what happens in November may be resting on some very shaky assumptions. While conventional polling and political analysis point towards significant Democratic gains, Marvin has developed a very different framework based on the possibility that pollsters are systematically failing to capture a growing population of low-trust voters who are reluctant to participate in surveys but nevertheless turn out when populist candidates or issues are on the ballot. We explore the evidence behind that thesis, the...

Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub and author of Stock Picker, joins me for a fascinating conversation about investing, conviction and the advantages that can still exist for individuals willing to venture into the neglected corners of public markets. Ian’s journey began with a $20,000 family gift that he turned into $120,000 during the dot-com bubble before promptly losing 90% of it when the bubble burst—an experience which, rather than driving him away from markets, made him determined to understand what he’d got wrong. We talk about the chance investment in XM Satellite Radio that introduced him to the power of mee...

On this episode of The End Game, Bill Fleckenstein and I welcome Mike Green for a fascinating conversation about a force that has quietly become one of the most important drivers of modern financial markets: passive investing. Mike argues that ETFs, mutual funds, target-date funds and systematic strategies increasingly function as liquidity-concentration mechanisms, mechanically directing capital into securities with little regard for price, valuation or fundamentals—and, in doing so, changing the behaviour of the markets themselves. We discuss the work behind his new firm, Tier1 Alpha Asset Management, which attempts to identify the distinctive “signature” left by these flows a...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome back Jared Dillian for a fascinating conversation about his terrific new book, The Awesome Portfolio, and a deceptively simple question: what should an investment portfolio actually be designed to achieve? Jared argues that too many investors optimise for maximum returns while paying insufficient attention to volatility, drawdowns and, crucially, their own ability to withstand losses when markets turn against them. His alternative is strikingly straightforward—a 20/20/20/20/20 allocation across stocks, bonds, gold, cash and real estate, designed to capture much of the long-term return available from equities while producing a co...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome back Andrew McDermott of Mission Value Partners for a fascinating reassessment of one of the world’s most misunderstood economies. While many investors remain focused on Japan’s currency, bond market, and decades of sluggish growth, Andrew argues that these headline narratives obscure a far more important story: Japan remains one of the world’s indispensable industrial powers. Together, we explore how Japanese companies quietly embedded themselves deep within global supply chains after the trade tensions of the 1980s and 1990s, becoming world leaders in advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, robotics, defence...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome back Gerard Minack back for a fascinating discussion about one of the most consequential questions facing investors today: whether AI represents a durable investment opportunity or an extraordinary technology surrounded by an increasingly fragile earnings boom. Gerard makes an important distinction between an earnings bubble and a valuation bubble, arguing that the extraordinary profits currently being generated by the companies supplying the AI buildout are real, but may prove far less sustainable than markets expect as Chinese competition intensifies, customers become increasingly price-sensitive, and margins inevitably come under pressure. F...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome Marvin Barth of Thematic Markets back for a characteristically wide-ranging conversation about central banking, fiscal sustainability, and the intellectual frameworks underpinning modern monetary policy. Beginning with our shared admiration for the work of our mutual friend Dave Dredge at Convex Strategies, we examine the dangers of a policymaking establishment built around models that consistently underestimate fat tails, volatility clustering, and the messy realities of financial markets. That leads naturally to newly appointed Fed chair Kevin Warsh and the fascinating question of whether his emphasis on epistemic humility, accountability, and...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome back Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital for a thoughtful and wide-ranging discussion built around Brent’s latest piece, The Band, and the evolution of his long-standing dollar thesis. What begins as an exploration of a simple framework for understanding the limits of dollar strength and weakness quickly expands into a deeper examination of the global monetary system and the unique role the dollar continues to play within it. Brent explains why dollar credit remains the lifeblood of global finance, how excessive moves in either direction create stress throughout the sy...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome my dear friend Rick Rule into the studio for a wide-ranging discussion about commodities, capital allocation, and the kind of opportunities that emerge when patience meets deep industry knowledge. Drawing on decades of experience in the resource sector, Rick explains why he believes the fundamental case for commodities remains compelling despite years of investor neglect. From copper and oil to inflation, monetary instability, and the lessons of previous commodity cycles, our conversation explores the forces driving supply shortages and why many investors continue to underestimate how difficult and time-consuming i...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by author Dominic Frisby for a conversation that is equal parts monetary history, philosophy, and comedy. Best known to many as a comedian, writer, and commentator, Dominic brings a rare ability to explain complex financial ideas with clarity, humour, and perspective. The discussion traces his journey from trying to finance a West End musical to becoming one of the most recognisable voices in the world of gold and sound money. Along the way, we explore why gold continues to exert such a powerful hold over the human imagination, wha...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, Brendan Ballou returns for a fascinating and deeply important conversation about the rise of forced arbitration and the quiet transformation of the American legal system. Brendan explains how what began as a narrow mechanism for resolving commercial disputes has evolved into a vast private justice system that increasingly shields corporations from public accountability. Through examples ranging from hidden cellphone fees to wrongful-death cases, the discussion explores how decades of court decisions have steadily weakened consumers’ and workers’ ability to challenge powerful institutions—particularly when harms are individually small but collectively enormous. Along...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome my good mate Dave Dredge of Convex Strategies for a fascinating conversation about fragility, portfolio construction, and why so many traditional investment frameworks are no longer fit for purpose. Using everything from London Tube strikes to Mandelbrot’s work on volatility clustering, Dave explains why markets should be understood not as stable systems occasionally disrupted by shocks, but as inherently fragile structures where hidden stresses build quietly over time before suddenly erupting. At the heart of our discussion is the “total portfolio approach”—a growing institutional framework that focuses less on t...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I reconnect with Jawad Mian for a deeply thoughtful conversation that moves seamlessly between markets, personal evolution, and the challenge of building an intellectually honest life in an increasingly noisy world. Jawad reflects on his decision to leave Dubai and return to Toronto, explaining how the move forced him to rethink not only where he wanted to live, but also the kind of person and investor he wanted to become. What emerges is a discussion about rhythm, reflection, and the importance of creating enough mental and emotional space to think clearly i...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome my old friend, and veteran copper analyst Simon Hunt for a sweeping conversation that connects the war in Iran to supply chains, commodities, monetary power, and the future of the global order. Speaking from his home in Dubai, Simon describes a city transformed almost overnight by the conflict before widening the lens to argue that the struggle over Iran is ultimately about far more than the Middle East. From BRICS strategy and copper shortages to wartime economics, gold-backed currencies, and the long-term weakening of the dollar system, Simon lays o...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome David Leiter for a lively and highly practical conversation about his new book, Stop Making Stupid Investments: 7 Rules to Avoid the Hype and Build Real Wealth. David traces the unlikely path from guitar-obsessed kid and struggling salesman to Credit Suisse banker, Queens real-estate investor, and ultimately author of a book designed to help people avoid the traps he has seen ruin investors again and again. From dot-com mania and crypto yield schemes to Wall Street’s talent for repackaging risk under more appealing names, David lays out a refreshingly pl...

In the latest episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome Danielle DiMartino Booth back for a wide-ranging conversation about a macro backdrop that feels increasingly detached from the official story. Danielle explains why consumer sentiment—particularly rising expectations of unemployment—is flashing a far darker signal than headline labour data suggests, and why she believes the average household is under far more pressure than policymakers are willing to admit. From hidden weakness in the job market to the spread of gambling, speculation, and buy now, pay later behaviour, our discussion paints a picture of an economy held together by c...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined once again by Marvin Barth to unpack a rapidly shifting geopolitical and monetary landscape through the lens of the superb recent piece he published titled “Alea Iacta Est”—the die is cast. Marvin argues that once the United States and Israel crossed the threshold into open confrontation with Iran, the strategic calculus for all players changed irreversibly. From the distinction between Iran as a nation and its ruling regime to the broader implications for China, Europe, and the global financial system, the conversation weaves together geopolitics, currency dynamics, and inve...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, Grant is joined by David Murrin for a sweeping and provocative discussion about the structural forces shaping today’s geopolitical landscape. David argues that current conflicts—from Ukraine to the Middle East—are not isolated crises, but manifestations of a long-term power transition from a declining US-led order to a rising, strategically coordinated China. Framed through his concept of a 100-year “war cycle,” our conversation explores how modern warfare, technological asymmetry, and internal Western fragmentation are converging to create a far more dangerous and unpredictable global environment than most investors or policymake...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by Variant Perception’s Tian Yang for a sweeping discussion of what he calls a “late-cycle macro, early-stage regime shift.” Tian argues that the global economy is pivoting away from efficiency and toward sovereignty, as great powers prioritise control of supply chains, technology, and industrial capacity. Drawing parallels to McKinley, Roosevelt, FDR, and Eisenhower, he explains why state-driven investment, industrial policy, and fiscal dominance are becoming permanent features of the economic landscape. From AI-driven melt-up dynamics in markets to gold’s role as a geopolitical hedge, Tian lays out a fram...

With the recent volatility in precious metals raising an inordinate amount of questions (and generating an even greater amount of hot takes and opinions from let’s just say ‘commentators who are relatively inexperienced in the idiosyncrasies of gold and silver markets’), it felt appropriate to have a conversation with Simon Mikhailovich – a man who has not only been involved in precious metals for some considerable time, but who is also as sound and as savvy a commentator as you’ll find and who brings a unique perspective to his views that’s rooted in both a wealth of experience a...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by Rabobank’s Michael Every for a provocative exploration of why the post-Cold War liberal world order is breaking down — and what may replace it. Michael argues that decades of hyper-market economics hollowed out America’s industrial and military base, and that Trump’s project represents a radical attempt to reverse that trajectory by fusing national security and economic policy. Drawing on deep historical parallels with the collapse of the Soviet Union, he sets out his ‘reverse Gorbachev’ thesis: an effort to impose a form of capitalism with a national-sec...

In this episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri and I are joined by geopolitical strategist Kamran Bokhari for a sweeping, historically grounded exploration of how Iran arrived at its present moment of instability—and where it may be heading next. Kamran traces Iran’s modern political evolution from Qajar Persia through the Pahlavi monarchy, the 1953 Mosaddegh coup, and the 1979 Islamic Revolution, explaining how the regime’s dual-military structure—split between the regular army and the IRGC—was forged in war and later transformed into a vehicle for political and economic dominance.

From Iran’s revolutionary ideology and fear of...

Demetri and I welcome journalist and author Brian Winter to The Hundred Year Pivot to discuss the recent events in Venezuela and where they fit into the upheaval coming at us from seemingly every direction. Brian is the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and a seasoned analyst of Latin American politics and his balanced perspective is a welcome antidote to the unbridled certainty about the future that seems to have erupted since Maduro’s extradition/kidnap. We discuss the finer details of Venezuelan politics, what likely happens next, other key potential flashpoints in Latin America as well as the surprising res...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by Dr. John Bosetti, MD, an eye surgeon who has dedicated his career to tackling one of the most devastating—and most solvable—health crises in the developing world: preventable blindness. Dr. Bosetti recounts how a life running a successful ophthalmology practice in Napa, California gave way to a mission in Sub-Saharan Africa after witnessing first-hand the scale of untreated cataracts and the limits of short-term medical missions. What followed was a bold plan to build local capacity through Eye Surgeons International—creating world-class training, infrastructure, and sustainability to resto...

In this episode of Super Terrific Happy Hour, Steph and I return with our customary blend of easy-going banter coupled with a shameless plug and a sobering assessment of the global financial landscape. What begins with complaints about the cold weather and Seinfeld callbacks, as well as our upcoming live event in St. Petersburg, quickly turns into a candid examination of sovereign refinancing risks, leveraged corporate balance sheets, and a Treasury market increasingly supported not by central banks but by hedge funds and private foreign buyers. As short-term debt dependence grows and refinancing waves collide across governments, corporates, and...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome Diana Choyleva, Chief Economist at Enodo Economics, for a rigorous unpacking of what ‘de-dollarisation’ really means—and what it doesn’t. Moving beyond the familiar extremes of “the dollar is finished” versus “the dollar is untouchable,” Diana explains how China is methodically building an alternative financial infrastructure centred on the digital yuan and modern payment rails. The issue, she argues, is not oil being priced in dollars, but how energy is paid for and how those dollars are recycled. From Saudi Arabia’s pivotal role to the quiet technological arms race in cross...

n the latest episode of The End Game, Bill and I welcome Gerard Minack for a masterclass in macro perspective and market realism. Gerard, founder of Minack Advisors, dissects the current investment landscape—where AI euphoria collides with fiscal fragility and complacent bond markets. Drawing on historical parallels to the late 1990s tech bubble, he explains why today’s optimism may mask structural risks: stretched valuations, rising deficits, and a world growing comfortable with unsustainable debt dynamics. The conversation spans AI’s commercial limits, the growing strain on fiscal and monetary policy, and gold’s curious role as both hedge an...

In this latest episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri Kofinas and I are joined by Peter Atwater, adjunct professor at William & Mary and author of The Confidence Map: From Chaos to Clarity. Together we explore Peter’s groundbreaking framework for understanding how confidence shapes behaviour, societies, and markets through four emotional quadrants: the comfort zone, the stress centre, the launch pad, and the passenger seat. What begins as a psychological model quickly expands into a sweeping reflection on generational fragility, social media conformity, and the dangerous imbalance of a world where too few people feel in control of th...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome my old mate Ned Naylor-Leyland, long-time precious-metals fund manager, for a detailed discussion on the shifting dynamics of gold, silver, and the mining sector. Ned argues that gold has decisively emerged from a 44-year bear market against Treasuries to reclaim its role as the world’s true risk-free asset, signalling the start of a genuine, structural bull market. He outlines why silver—still lagging behind gold—may soon explode higher, driven by surging industrial demand, physical shortages, and growing Indian appetite, before turning to the extraordinary profitability now building within...

In the ninth episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Grant and Demetri welcome Roger Mitchell for a deeply reflective conversation on faith, values, and the unraveling of the modern social contract. Against the backdrop of growing disillusionment in Western society, Roger shares his personal journey and explores how the erosion of traditional anchors—family, faith, and community—has left many searching for meaning in a world defined by materialism and inequality. Together, we examine the rise of financial nihilism, the politicisation of belief, and the enduring human need for moral and spiritual grounding, offering a thoughtful exploration of how anci...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome author and entrepreneur Robert Glazer to discuss his new book, The Compass Within—a powerful exploration of how uncovering and living by one’s personal core values can transform leadership, relationships, and decision-making. Robert shares how identifying his own guiding principles reshaped his approach to life and business, and how that experience evolved into a story-driven framework designed to help others find clarity and alignment. Together, we explore the difference between corporate “values” that often ring hollow and genuine personal ones forged through experience—showing how an internal compass, once disco...

In a blockbuster episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I welcome Julien Garran of MacroStrategy for a penetrating discussion on what Julien believes is the most dangerous bubble in modern financial history—the AI mania. Drawing parallels to the dot-com and housing booms but arguing this one far exceeds both, Julien dissects how years of ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policy have produced staggering capital misallocation, distorted incentives, and a fragile financial order. He explores the structural flaws in large language models, the monopolistic grip of tech giants, and the unsustainable losses lurking beneath the surface, warning that the eventual un...

In this long-overdue episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and author of How to Listen When Markets Speak, to explore how extraordinary fiscal and monetary responses have reshaped the investing landscape. Larry argues that the disinflationary era is over, replaced by an inflationary, multipolar world that calls for a fresh approach to portfolios—one that favours hard assets like copper, coal, and natural gas over stretched technology stocks.

Our conversation spans the political and structural forces driving this shift, from chronic underinvestment in energy and the...

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by David Fergusson, CEO of Atlas Consolidated in Singapore, for a fascinating look at the disruptive rise of digital banking. From his early days building Hugosave in Singapore to launching Atlas’s HugoHub platform for banks, fintechs, and insurers worldwide, David explains how technology, open banking, and shifting regulations are reshaping the industry. Our discussion highlights how digital platforms slash costs, expand access in underserved markets, and integrate AI to accelerate adoption—all pointing to a future where financial services are more efficient, affordable, and transformative than ever before...

In thie latest episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I’m joined by Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, for a deep dive into the powerful undercurrents driving today’s markets. Michael explains why the US equity rally rests on shaky ground, with broken momentum structures in the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, and leading tech names hinting at sharp declines ahead. He also outlines how weakening bonds, a faltering dollar, and the setup for explosive moves in commodities and precious metals point to a much broader period of market upheaval. From the risk of Bitcoin tumbling back toward $50,000 to the...

In this episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri and I sit down with Jonathan Kirshner, a leading classical realist and scholar of international relations, for a wide-ranging discussion on realism, uncertainty, and America’s shifting role in global affairs. Jonathan outlines realism as a descriptive framework for understanding a world defined by anarchy—where no supreme authority exists—and the resulting unpredictability of state behaviour. We explore how changing geopolitical conditions are prompting nations, including the US, to more clearly articulate and pursue their national interests, touching on recent US foreign policy choices, the weakening of the dollar order...

In the seventh episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri Kofinas and I are joined by renowned financial historian Edward Chancellor for a sweeping conversation on the century-long evolution of money and interest rates. Our discussion traces the abandonment of gold-backed currency, the rise of fiat money, and the resulting waves of speculation, monetary intervention, and economic distortion. Eddie examines how decades of artificially low rates fueled bubbles and imbalances that are now unwinding, reshaping industries from real estate to renewable energy. Together, we explore the political and societal consequences of ‘mispriced’ money, mounting deficits, and wealth inequality—and consid...

In the latest episode of The Hundred Year Pivot, Demetri and I sit down with Lawrence Fossi—better known to many as Montana Skeptic—for a fearless exploration of America’s fraying social fabric. From the shifting character of New York City to the cults of personality surrounding Elon Musk and Donald Trump, we dissect the cultural, political, and institutional forces eroding public trust and cohesion.

With Lawrence’s trademark candour, the conversation delves into the dangers of celebrity-driven populism, the fragility of democratic norms, and the deep structural imbalances threatening the US political and economic system. This is...