NAB Morning Call

Monday 9th November 2026

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Phil and NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld analyse a resilient finish to the week for the US economy. Wall Street found its footing on Friday—with the Nasdaq rebounding 1.1%—following a blowout US Non-Farm Payrolls print of 165,000 that beat expectations, even as accelerating average hourly earnings keep the Fed on track for a December rate hike. By contrast, Canadian employment data fell sharply, underscoring growing divergence across North America. The resurgent US dollar pressured the Aust...

Friday 6th November 2026

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Phil speaks with Professor Paul Whiteley from the University of Essex to break down the seismic political and economic fallout of the US midterm elections. Following a historic "blue wash" that delivered decisive control of both the House and Senate to the Democrats, Whiteley argues that Capitol Hill’s primary focus will be "cleaning up the mess"—strategically daring Donald Trump to wield his veto against popular dome...

Friday 6th November 2026

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Phil and NAB's Gavin Friend break down a brutal tech-led sell-off on Wall Street as reality sets in over what a Democratic-controlled Congress means for big tech valuations and regulation. The Nasdaq plunged 5% and the S&P 500 tumbled 3.6%—dragging major names like Nvidia, Tesla, and Micron down between 8% and 15%—as investors price in heightened oversight, local moratoriums on massive AI data center build-outs, and fading odds of corporate tax breaks. The equity rout spurred a clas...

Thursday 5th November 2026

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Phil and NAB’s Ray Attrill, unpack a dramatic risk-on session across global financial markets following a decisive Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections. With the prospect of less in the way of military action in the Middle east crude dipped below US$94 a barrel for the first time since late September. This, combined with the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement tweaking issuance guidance, fueled a powerful rally in sovereign debt that sent US 1...

Wednesday 4th November 2026

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NAB’s Taylor Nugent assesses the fallout from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Melbourne Cup Day decision, where the Board delivered a widely anticipated 25-basis-point increase to lift the cash rate to 4.85%. Despite the rate rise, domestic bond yields and the Australian dollar both declined—with the Aussie dipping back below 70 US cents—as markets seized on a dovish 6–3 split vote and a subtle softening in the RBA’s forward guidance, reinforcing NAB’s view that the...

Tuesday 3rd November 2026

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Phil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril analyse a sharp drop in oil prices after reports surfaced that US President Trump is pursuing diplomatic de-escalation over Iran. That’s spurred a broader risk-on tone across financial markets, driving sovereign bond yields lower and boosting European and broad US equities, even as technology stocks lagged on persistent AI capex caution and pre-earnings nerves ahead of Apple’s results. Domestically, the spotlight turns to today’s Melbourne Cup Day RBA...

Monday 2ns November 2026

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Phil talks to NAB’s Sally Auld about Friday’s tech rout and tomorrow’s Melbourne Cup rate rise from the RBA. Ahead of the decision, new data from Cotality shows capital city dwelling values fell 1.4% in October—accelerating across previously heated property markets like Brisbane and Perth as cyclical rate pressures intersect with federal property tax reforms. Globally, markets digest the Bank of Japan’s hawkish pause, softer official Chinese manufacturing PMIs, widening French sovereign...

Friday 30th October 2026

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Phil speaks with Paul Mortimer-Lee, Research Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) and former Bank of England forecasting head, to examine the deepening fiscal strain across Europe and determine whether France or the UK is in a more dangerous position. Paul argues that France is caught in a structural spending trap—with government outlays at an eye-watering 57% of GDP and political fragmentation ma...

Thursday 29th October 2026

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Phil and NAB’s Gavin Friend explore a risk-off session across equity markets triggered by a fresh wave of artificial intelligence anxiety following Alphabet’s quarterly earnings. Alphabet tumbled nearly 13%—marking one of the largest single-day market-cap wipeouts on record—as investors grew alarmed by ballooning AI capital expenditure running alongside signs that conversational AI search tools are beginning to cannibalise its core advertising revenue. The resulting tech sell-off pulled the Nasdaq down 1.5% and overshadowed otherwis...

Thursday 29th October 2026

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Phil Dobbie and NAB’s Ray Attrill unpack a frantic 24 hours of central bank decisions, domestic inflation data, and shifting rate calls. Global bond yields plunged—led by a sharp 8-basis-point drop in US two-year Treasury yields—after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a surprisingly dovish tone during his post-FOMC press conference, suggesting inflation medicine is taking effect and casting doubt on a December hike, whilst holding rates steady today. In Wellington, the RBNZ delivered a majo...

Wednesday 28th October 2026

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Phil and NAB's Skye Masters break down a risk-on session across global equity markets set against a tense, pivotal day for monetary policy. Wall Street rallied—led by a 2.2% surge in the Nasdaq and broad tech strength—fuelled by news of mega-cap chip-financing deals and solid US consumer confidence readings. The primary focus, however, turns squarely to domestic macro data, with Australian Q3 CPI arriving today. With markets pricing in roughly a 60% probability of an RBA...

Tuesday 27th October 2026

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Phil and NAB's Rodrigo Catril unpack a choppy overnight session marked by major political shifts, geopolitical tension, and resilient tech sentiment. Brazilian markets faced sharp domestic repricing after Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a runoff victory, while geopolitical attention turns to the neck-and-neck Israeli elections. On Wall Street, equities pushed higher—led by a broad-based rally across technology and semiconductors following news of Anthropic's planned public listing—even as investors keep a cautious eye o...

Monday 26th October 2026

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Phil talks to NAB’s Ken Crompton at the start of what is set to be one of the most critical weeks of the year for global financial markets. Investors face a relentless barrage of catalysts: five major central bank meetings (including the RBNZ, Bank of Canada, FOMC, ECB, and the Bank of Japan), high-stakes quarterly earnings from Big Tech giants like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, the Israeli national election, and the looming shadow of ne...

Friday 23rd October 2026

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In this Weekend Edition, Phil speaks with Erin Leigh Brown, co-author of the Grattan Institute's landmark report Budget Reboot: How to Fund Australia's Future. They break down Grattan's controversial proposed tax reform package: broadening and raising the GST from 10% to 15% across all goods (including fresh food, health, and education) to raise $76 billion annually, while directing $33 billion to targeted income tax cuts for low- and middle-income earners and $25...

Friday 23rd October 2026

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Phil is joined by NAB's Gavin Friend to analyse a sharp risk-off session across global markets, driven by tech valuation worries and ongoing Middle East energy supply disruptions. US equities fell heavily—led by a 2.7% drop in the Nasdaq following Meta’s increased capital expenditure outlook—while benchmark Brent crude oil surged near $113 per barrel amid Houthi drone strikes and escalating transport costs. Investors rushed into safe-haven Treasuries, pushing US 10-year yields down 16 basis points, while...

Thursday 22nd October 2026

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Phil and NAB's Taylor Nugent discuss how market sentiment around AI is rebounding following strong Q3 earnings from SpaceX, even as local infrastructure bottlenecks loom large—highlighted by NextDC's 42% stock plunge following delays to its Melbourne data centre rollout. Domestically, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser emphasized that the inflation backdrop has "materially worsened" relative to August projections, pushing market pricing for a November rate hike to nearly 50%, while NAB's monthly spend tracking showed resilient consumer sp...

Wednesday 21st October 2026

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NAB's Skye Masters joins Phil to break down a highly volatile session where investors remain caught between geopolitical oil shocks and European political instability. Crude oil touched a five-month high near $112 a barrel before pulling back to hover around $108 for Brent. In Europe, widening political and fiscal unrest in France drove French 10-year government bond (OAT) yields higher and widened the OAT-Bund spread past 150 basis points, though markets showed little signs of broader European contagion...

Monday 19th October 2026

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NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to navigate a session defined by rising global bond yields, with US 10-year Treasuries up 7 basis points to 5.15% and French 10-year yields jumping 13 basis points amid worsening social unrest and local curfew proposals. US equities pulled off a tech-led rebound ahead of key corporate earnings. Oil prices edged higher but found strong technical resistance near $110 a barrel for Brent, balancing regional escalation—such as Houthi strikes targeting Saudi transit hubs...

Monday 19th October 2026

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Phil talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about this morning’s volatile backdrop for global financial markets, driven by tech sentiment, geopolitical pivots, and domestic unrest. Equity markets ended the week under pressure, led by a 2.1% drop in the Nasdaq on Friday as investors focused on the escalating debt and borrowing costs associated with the massive AI data center build-out, with firms like CoreWeave at the center of credit stress. Geopolitical uncertainty flared after President Trum...

Friday 16th October 2026

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This week Phil speaks with Tom Jensen, Head of International Freight & Logistics at the Freight & Trade Alliance (FTA), to unpack the relentless disruptions hitting global sea freight. From post-COVID supply chain adjustments and soaring landside fees to the Red Sea crisis and escalating Middle East tensions, the conversation explores how foreign shipping lines are passing on heavy conflict surcharges and longer transit costs to Australian importers and...

Friday 16th October 2026

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NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil after a turbulent 24 hours across global and domestic markets. Investors pulled capital out of the tech sector amid rising concerns over AI-related corporate debt and capital spending, driving a safe-haven rally into US Treasuries that pushed 10-year yields down, well below the post-CPI highs. On the domestic front, the Australian dollar dropped sharply below 69.2 US cents after September employment data showed a net fall of 39,000 jobs and an unemployment ra...

Thursday 15th October 2026

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NAB's Taylor Nugent joins Phil to break down the market fallout from higher-than-expected US CPI data, where headline inflation reaccelerated to 3.7%. The surprise print triggered an immediate knee-jerk reaction across asset classes—sending the US Dollar Index up half a percent, pushing equities lower (with the Nasdaq down 1.9%), and sparking a wild 14-basis-point intra-session spike in 2-year US Treasury yields before bond yields eventually retraced. Locally attention shifts to today's crucial Australian September employment figures; fo...

Wednesday 14th October 2026

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In today's episode, Phil Dobbie and NAB Senior FX Strategist Ray Attrill unpack a challenging economic picture as global inflation pressures and tight monetary policy weigh on market sentiment. Domestically, the NAB Business Survey highlighted a sharp drop in business confidence alongside a slump in the employment index to a five-year low, while the RBA minutes underscored persistent capacity constraints—including AI data center energy demands—keeping further rate hikes firmly on the table. Globally, equi...

Tuesday 13th October 2026

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Semiconductor stocks are taking a beating as competition from China and internal US pressures weigh heavily on tech, while oil prices continue their climb as the Middle East conflict flares and the energy ceasefire fails to hold. NAB's Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to break down the latest market turbulence. They analyse the rising US dollar and sliding Australian dollar, escalating fiscal concerns in France driving bond spreads wider, and what to expect from today's key...

Monday 12th October 2026

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A fresh escalation of Middle East conflict is overshadowing energy markets after Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s airport, clashing with President Trump's announced US-Russia diesel agreement and reported Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie sits down with NAB’s Skye Masters to unpack the competing market drivers. They analyze the Friday rebound in global equities and lower bond yields, the latest CFTC positioning data showing growing Euro short...

Friday 9th October 2026

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Australia’s housing market continues to present a puzzling contradiction: despite record-low vacancy rates and a severe structural shortage of housing, rental price growth has stalled—and in major cities like Sydney and Canberra, house rents are actually falling. On this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil speaks with Dr. Nicola Powell, Chief Residential Economist at Domain, to unpack the underlying forces shaping the market. They...

Friday 9th October 2026

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Risk-off sentiment dominated global markets as geopolitical tensions flared in the Persian Gulf. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss a turbulent session sparked by an attack on an oil tanker near Qatar, which sent Brent crude surging toward $104 a barrel alongside hurricane-related production cut. Energy cost spikes and tech sector drags—amplified by OpenAI revenue concerns and potential US visa restrictions—weighed heavily on equities...

Friday 2nd October 2026

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Oil drifts lower, French yields rocket, and the FOMC minutes reveal a Federal Reserve that is far from done worrying about inflation. Phil is joined by NAB’s Ray Attrill who says the newly released FOMC minutes are a little more dovish than anticipated, whilst the NY Fed’s consume inflation expectations pushed higher. Meanwhile fiscal strain in France is pushing bond spreads wider across the Eurozone, and Brent crude has slipped back under $100 a barr...

Wednesday 7th October 2026

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The S&P 500 has notched its first fresh all-time high since August, supported by optimism ahead of the Q3 earnings season and steadying US Treasury yields. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil is joined by NAB’s Gavin Friend to dissect the market moves—starting with a sharp pullback in French bond yields after far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen pledged a "golden rule" deficit reduction plan to stabilize public financ...

Tuesday 6th October 2026

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US equity markets kicked off the week with solid gains as the tech sector pushed higher, but fixed income markets continued to grapple with elevated yields as US 10-year Treasuries pushed up to 5.34%. Following a long weekend in parts of Australia, Phil Dobbie and NAB's Taylor Nugent unpack a busy start to October, analysing Friday's softer-than-expected US Non-Farm Payrolls print (+28k) and its impact on Fed rate expectations. Across the Atlantic, European markets are dealing...

Friday 25th September 2026

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As artificial intelligence rapidly transforms from a speculative tech trend into the primary driver of global market returns, how are institutional investors actually positioning their capital for the road ahead? This Phil Dobbie sits down with Damien Webb, Chief Investment Officer for Brighter Super, fresh off an insightful trip to Silicon Valley meeting with frontier AI labs, quantum computing founders, and top academic minds.

...

Friday 2nd October 2026

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France's escalating budget woes and fiscal watchdog criticism have sent sovereign bond markets into a tizzy, causing French-German yield spreads to widen sharply. On today's edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie and NAB's Ken Crompton break down these mixed global signals—from France's budget strain to rising US manufacturing prices and mortgage rates hitting 7.28%. Despite lower US Treasury yields following a brief flight to quality, the US dollar remains firm while crude oil re...

Thursday 1st October 2026

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Global financial markets are navigating a sharp divergence between the US and Europe, driven entirely by conflicting inflation trends. On today’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil Dobbie speaks with NAB’s Skye Masters to unpack why resilient US economic data, cooler-than-expected Core PCE prints, and upward GDP revisions are supporting Wall Street, even as 10-year Treasury yields push toward 5.30%. In contrast, hot European inflation prints across Germany and France are weighing on sent...

Wednesday 30th September 2026

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Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s unanimous decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%, market attention has shifted to Governor Michele Bullock’s post-meeting press conference. NAB's Taylor Nugent says her commentary hinted that the RBA may be returning to its "narrow path" balancing inflation control against labour market conditions, softening some of the hawkish expectations for follow-up hikes. Meanwhile, global bond yields continue their upward trend, pushing 30-year US Treasuries to m...

Tuesday 29th September 2026

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As crude oil holds above $105 a barrel and US 10-year Treasury yields surge to 5.24%, markets are grappling with how much further central banks can push policy rates to restrain persistent inflation. On today’s podcast Phil talks with NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision. Sally notes that while US growth resilience and structural Capex demand are driving global yields higher, Australia’s cooling PMIs and softening business surv...

Monday 28th September 2026

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Donald Trunp has knocked back Iran’s proposal that could have seen the Strait of Hormuz reopen within seven-days. Instead, the US President believes economic sanctions will ultimately have the desired outcome. So, does that mean oil prices will bounce higher this morning? NAB’s Ray Attrill says the volatility will continue, but news this morning suggesting talks are ongoing might temper any negative sentiment. It’s a busy week ahead with the RBA decision tomorr...

Friday 25th September 2026

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The hipsters live inside the goat’s cheese curtain before they start a family and move to the burbs in search of their quarter acre block. That’s the traditional pattern of life in Australia, but demographer Bernard Salt, from the Demographics Group, says major changes are afoot. Fertility rates of younger people are falling faster than expected, and people are living longer than forecast. It’s not an...

Friday 25th September 2026

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The "V" word is firmly back on the agenda as geopolitical friction, soaring energy prices, and relentless sovereign yield pressures inject fresh ‘volatility’ across global markets. This morning Phil and NAB’s Taylor Nugent break down the forces driving crude oil back over $106 a barrel as Red Sea insurance premiums soar and Middle East tensions escalate. Meanwhile, sovereign bond markets continue their dramatic bear steepening amid a persistent chorus of hawkish Fed commentary and lukewarm Treasu...

Thursday 24th September 2026

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The US dollar and global bond yields have risen sharply. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a bit part of this was stronger than expected PMIs, particularly for the US. It shows demand isn’t falling, whilst oil supplies remain a concern. So much of a concern that the US is limiting diesel exports to shore-up its domestic supplies. The US is attempting to bring down longer dated yields with a $6 billion buyback today. Phil asks, if i...

Wednesday 23rdd September 2026

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Oil is now trading below $100 after President Trump says talk have gone well with Iran during the UN General Assembly in New York, with more talks scheduled I’n the near future’. NAB’s Ken Crompton says news of the east-west Saudi pipeline reopening has also helped. Markets have ignored the more extreme language of ‘annihilating’ the Republic if talks don’t go well. And what of Michelle Bullock’s fireside chat? ‘Well, it’s inflation that’s o...