Global Data Pod

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss the pressures Western European central banks still face from resilient growth, elevated energy prices and sticky inflation. 

This podcast was recorded on 13 November 2026.

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The US labor market delivered a much-needed bounce, trimming the downside risks that had been building as wealth effects and tax cuts were fading in the face of a rising energy shock. The US election will have some macro consequences with respect to the AI build-out, two wars (trade and Iran), and likely budgetary slippage. Risks of tightening financial conditions edge higher, but we end the week feeling better on balance. 

Speaker:

Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist

Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research

This podcast was recorded on 6 November 2026. (htt...

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss Western European central banks, which are still hiking post-midterms.

This podcast was recorded on November 06, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan, it is prohibited to (A) use or share any material, commentary, information or other data received fr...

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Abiel Reinhart and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss the latest global inflation developments. Inflation pressures broadened in September, with both core goods and services inflation moving higher alongside firmer food and energy prices. Risks to the outlook are shifting once again as oil prices fell sharply this week, while a historically intense El Niño is starting to pass through to food prices in parts of EM. We discuss the latest US and Euro area inflation signals and the implications for inflation forecasts and monetary policy.

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Incoming news reinforces the message of strength for global growth last quarter, albeit somewhat mixed with the US leading the way. Moderation is expected this quarter but robust profit growth should be the catalyst for a rotation to labor markets perking up. Downside risks can been seen in rising energy shocks, fading wealth effects, and waning fiscal impulses. Central banks remained on hold this week but signaled broadly that hikes are on deck before year-end.

Speakers:
Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist
Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research

This podcast was recorded on 30 October 2026...

Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the coming change in leadership at the ECB, the direction of travel on monetary policy and the latest news on Euro area growth and inflation.

This podcast was recorded on 30 October 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Without prior written consent from J.P...

Another surge in energy prices alongside business hiring that has yet to perk up materially raises the same old question: How long can consumers keep spending without real purchasing power? As long as growth is resilient, aided by strong profits and a shift to business spending, central banks will focus on sticky elevated inflation. Next week’s Fed, ECB, and BoJ will stay on hold but single hikes to come, while the BoC starts a hiking cycle.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist

Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research

This podcast was recorded on...

Greg Fuzesi, Allan Monks and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss another week with rising sovereign bond spreads, higher energy prices and resilient growth. 

This podcast was recorded on 23 October 2026. 

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Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan, it is prohibited to (A) use or share any material, commentary, information or other data received from J.P...

A strong two quarters of growth comes with geo-divergence and some mixed signals on momentum, raising questions not about the strong past but about the future. A global rotation is projected, with the US downshifting from a boomy pace and growth in the rest of the world strengthening. Against this backdrop, both headline and underlying inflation are firming.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist

Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research

This podcast was recorded on 16 October 2026. 

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Greg Fuzesi, Allan Monks and Raphael Brun-Aguerre continue to discuss the region’s fiscal challenges and energy price drags on growth.

This podcast was recorded on 16 October 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

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Greg Fuzesi, Allan Monks and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the region’s fiscal challenges.

This podcast was recorded on October 09, 2026.

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Despite the mixed messages from the sweep of global data on employment and spending, the PMIs are booming. The breadth of the rise across sectors and countries, along with a surge in the employment PMI, keeps us comfortable with our call for a cyclical lift that is joined by firming labor markets. For now, central banks remain in the New Testament and that’s a good thing.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist

Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research

This podcast was recorded on 8 October 2026. 

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A week of conflicting signals leaves us with more questions. We stand by our PMIs, which point to broad-based accelerating global strength at the start of 4Q. We also are impressed by the extra dose of US income, which was revised up alongside a stronger 2Q GDP outturn. However, the disappointing September payrolls number challenges a key feature of our outlook: the need for jobs to provide more support in extending the expansion. If nothing else, the tension in the data pushes off the need for immediate October rate hikes.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman, C...

Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss another volatile week with a special focus on France. 

This podcast was recorded on 02 October 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Mor...

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Raphael Brun-Aguerre and Abiel Reinhart to discuss the latest global inflation developments and the path ahead. Global inflation momentum is rebounding led by a renewed rise in consumer energy inflation and an acceleration in core goods inflation, both of which likely have further to run. While moderating service inflation has kept core inflation stable at 2.7%oya, a rotation towards firmer core goods inflation, and early signs that services disinflation may now be running out of steam, point to upside risks to the outlook, particularly if energy prices remain high for longer.

Th...

The news continues to point to broad and strong global growth momentum. It is thus no surprise that markets and central banks are increasingly expecting a higher path of rates. What is not expected is a strong growth dynamic that forces central banks to deliver a rate path that weakens growth, an outcome we believe is reasonable with labor markets poised to tighten.  

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist

Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research

This podcast was recorded on 25 September 2026. 

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Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss another hawkishly eventful week.

This podcast was recorded on September 24, 2026.

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The week bolstered the shift toward higher rates, with the Fed joining the hiking cycle and signaling more to come. While domestic conditions are playing their usual role, there are also plenty of global factors at work—potentially leading to a larger and more synchronized global hiking cycle than currently expected. This is being reinforced by a strengthening cyclical uplift, although this modal view faces two-sided risks.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist

Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research

This podcast was recorded on 18 September 2026. 

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Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss the hawkish shift that Western European central banks are progressively making. 

This podcast was recorded on Sept 18, 2026.

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© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from...

The tide on central bank tightening has turned and we see the September hikes from the ECB, Fed, and BoJ as the start of a broad tightening cycle. 

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist

Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research

This podcast was recorded on 11 September 2026. 

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Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss this week’s hawkish ECB and next week’s (potentially) hawkish BoE.

This podcast was recorded on Sept 11, 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only.  For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

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Today’s employment report aligned labor demand more closely with the positive cyclical dynamics seen in both US and global activity this quarter. While there remains a concern about geopolitics and energy markets, our focus of concern is shifting to the interaction of more credit-dependent business spending and central bank tightening.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist

Joseph Lupton, Co-Head Economic Research

This podcast was recorded on 4 September 2026. 

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Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the latest news on growth and inflation, and preview next week’s ECB policy meeting. 

This podcast was recorded on 04 September 2026.

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Global headline inflation cooled in July but is set to reaccelerate in August as higher energy prices reverse the recent decline. Food inflation has remained remarkably subdued, though rising pipeline pressures suggest a gradual pickup into year-end. Core inflation remains sticky at 2.7%oya, but a rotation is taking hold, with easing services inflation increasingly offset by firmer goods price inflation. We expect this dynamic to keep global inflation close to 3% and reinforce the case for further central bank tightening. Against this backdrop, next week’s US CPI report will be closely watched ahead of this month’s FOMC decision.

In this episode, Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, Fatih Akcelik, and Khamza Sharifzoda examine the diverging inflation trajectories of Türkiye, where disinflation has stalled but not been derailed, and Kazakhstan, where the pace of disinflation has slowed. The discussion explores the underlying forces shaping inflation dynamics in both economies, the respective roles of monetary and fiscal policy, and the critical influence of inflation expectations. The speakers further consider the outlook for each central bank as policymakers assess the appropriate pace of monetary easing in the period ahead.

This podcast was recorded on 01 September 2026.

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While the soft July data made us a little nervous, the August data is rebuilding confidence in a cyclical lift. As the business cycle regains its swagger, the odds of hikes will shift back up. More structural forces are also lifting yields, as both neutral rates and term premia are adding to longer-term borrowing costs. The downside depends on how current asset prices are a function of lower borrowing costs. There will be little to echo from the Grand Tetons around Jackson Hole.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

...

Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the positive growth signals out of Western Europe and whether that will push the more reluctant central banks to hike. 

This podcast was recorded on 21 August 2026.

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Georgia’s economy continues to defy expectations, with growth remaining exceptionally strong, despite a challenging external backdrop. In this episode, we discuss the drivers of Georgia’s resilience, including the rapid expansion of IT and services exports, fiscal discipline, strong capital inflows, and improving external buffers. With S&P recently revising Georgia’s sovereign rating outlook to positive, we explore the outlook for growth and inflation, the country’s evolving geopolitical positioning and whether strengthening macro fundamentals could ultimately pave the way for a rating upgrade.

Khamza Sharifzoda, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, EM, Econo...

A week of mixed signals on our call for a cyclical lift has us scratching our heads. The surveys for July are flashing green for a strong pickup in the pace of activity this quarter. Unfortunately, what we have viewed as the key ingredient for this lift went cold last month as US jobs came in with a thud. How much signal to take from this latest sign of weakness in US hiring will tell the tale for growth and central bank policy for 2H26.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

The view is tracking a cyclical lift that comes with job growth, which in turn will amplify already elevated inflation concerns and spark a central bank turn toward tightening. Whether the mood around this call is shifting for the better or not is up for debate given ongoing downside worries. Against this backdrop, Chair Warsh’s performance in conveying an effective Fed policy path is also up for debate.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 31 July 2026. 

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Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss the solid 2Q26 GDP reports and the (relative) clarity of central bank speak in Western Europe. 

This podcast was recorded on 30 July 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. 

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morga...

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Greg Fuzesi and Michael Hanson to discuss the latest inflation developments and the outlook for the second half. The pullback in energy prices delivered a sizable disinflationary impulse in June, but that inflation drag is unlikely to persist unless oil prices move lower again. Global core inflation eased in June, but owed largely to a soft US print which may be understating underlying momentum. Through the noise, global core inflation remains sticky at closer to 3%––a level we expect to be maintained during 2H26. Lower food inflation has helped to temper the energy shock, but...

The outlook has been viewed through the lens of a strong cyclical lift clashing with a set of geopolitical drags. The past week has delivered positive news on the cycle, but this also comes with news of an intensifying energy shock and trade war. As central banks weigh these forces, they are remaining constructive on growth and thus focus is on ongoing inflation pressures.

Speaker:

Bruce Kasman 

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 24 July 2026. 

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Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks discuss the latest on the Western European economy, which is seeing improving growth face off against yet another energy price shock.

This podcast was recorded on 24 July, 2026.

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© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent fr...

While there are considerable crosscurrents on both the growth and inflation fronts, our views remain squarely focused on resilient global growth (with risks biased to the upside) and a 2H26 global inflation profile that downshifts to a still elevated level.    

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2026.

 
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be...

Greg Fuzesi and Allan Monks continue to discuss upside risks to growth (despite the renewed tensions in Hormuz), and they preview next week’s ECB meeting and a new UK PM.

This podcast was recorded on 17 July, 2026.

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© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material rece...

In our forecast, which the consensus and market have come to over the past months (resilient growth, sticky inflation, hawkish central banks), the distinctiveness has diminished. However, this doesn’t stop us from worrying about things, or arguing about them. The baseline is still for continued expansion with a bit of upside risk driven by an unstoppable consumer, but downsides can still be seen in the tail.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 10 July 2026.

 
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This week, Greg Fuzesi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss whether the latest data out of the Euro area raise upside risks to growth and what the Le Pen court ruling means for France. 

This podcast was recorded on 10 July 2026.

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An interesting week leads us to trim both upside but also downside risks. The balance is still in some question, with the potential for a little upside in the US and Asia. A spirited debate about the internal reaction function of Fed Chair Warsh ensues after this week’s comments in Sintra.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 2 July 2026.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. A...

Greg Fuzesi speaks with Allan Monks about the Western European economy.

This podcast was recorded on 02 July 2026.

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For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.

© 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or...