FactSet Evening Market Recap

US equities were mixed this week, with the Dow Jones finishing down 4bps, while the S&P500 rose 32bps, and the Nasdaq jumped 251bps on tech upside driven by AI optimism following nVidia’s earnings results. Debt ceiling negotiators neared a deal to raise the debt ceiling for two years. Another big market repricing toward the Fed's higher-for-longer outlook amid hawkish Fedspeak and data that supported the soft landing narrative. Retailer earnings offered mixed takeaways.

US equities were mixed in Thursday trading, with the Dow Jones ending down 11bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 88bps and 171bps respectively. AI optimism the big story today with the blowout July quarter guidance from NVidia. Reports the White House and Republicans are discussing a debt limit deal that would lift the ceiling through 2024. On the data front, initial claims came in lower than expected. First quarter GDP growth was revised up, though PCE inflation also revised higher. Pending home sales missed.

Debt ceiling negotiations remain the major headline with McCarthy saying both sides are far apart on some issues but he believes a deal will be secured.

Fed staff continue to forecast a mild recession starting later this year given the expected further tightening in financial and bank credit conditions.

Retail outperformed, particularly after apparel reported well-received results from Abercrombie and Fitch, Kohl’s, and Urban Outfitters.

Initial jobless and continuing claims are due out in the morning.

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, ending near worst levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq down .69%, 1.12%, and 1.26%, respectively. The biggest decliners included steel, homebuilders, hospitals, managed care, exchanges, payment rails, semicaps, hotels, and casinos, while energy, banks, airlines, credit cards, housing-linked retail, department stores, and media and entertainment outperformed. There is still not a lot of readthrough in sector performance again. That said, the debt ceiling remains top of mind for the markets, with today's negotiating session having concluded with still no sign of progress. Looking ahead, May FOMC meeting minutes are out tomorrow at 2 pm...

US equities were mostly higher in fairly uneventful Monday trading, though the S&P ended off session highs and just under 4200 level. The latest US debt ceiling updates are skewing positive, with House Speaker McCarthy saying nothing has been agreed to, but said a deal could potentially be reached as soon as tonight and that it's still possible to push through Congress by 1-Jun. Meanwhile, it was another busy day of Fedspeak that provided some more hawkish takes.

US equities were higher this week, with the S&P 500 up for the first time in three weeks and breaking a six-week streak of absolute changes of less than 1%. Upside was driven by factors including optimism around a debt ceiling resolution, support for the soft landing narrative from economic data and retail earnings, and tech leadership with some positive spillover into semis and AI. Still, there was a big backup rates despite the resilient data, new debt ceiling uncertainty after some negative updates Friday, and a repricing for more hawkish Fed.

Big tech leading the gainers with FANMAGs coming in higher as Netflix outperformed on their ad-supported offering.

The Fed remains in the headlines as investors try to interpret hawkish higher-for-longer messaging with market hopes of a rate cut in the 2nd half.

In Washington, Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy said the debt limit talks are in a much better place as he sees a deal on the House floor by next week. All eyes remain on Secretary Yellen's X-date on June 1st.

US equities finished higher in fairly quiet Wednesday trading, ending just off best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 124bps, 119bps, and 128bps respectively. Risk-on move was driven by some positive debt ceiling and regional banking developments. Quiet on the data front ahead of claims tomorrow. April housing starts were in line and March revised down while building permits were light.

Somewhat of a mixed bag today. Growth worries along with the weak China April activity data. In addition, debt ceiling a big overhang with McCarthy still talking about a lack of progress. Tech outperformance keeping scrutiny on weak market breadth. Also some focus on lack of follow-through behind Monday's bank bounce. Fedspeak still reflective of a tightening bias despite market expectations for a pause and quick pivot. Regulatory backdrop for big deals remains very difficult with biopharma in the crosshairs.

Mild gains today came despite some renewed concerns about economic growth following record sequential contraction in the NY Fed's Empire manufacturing survey. Headlines over the weekend highlighted some traction behind the debt ceiling negotiations and the key players are set to meet again on Tuesday. In terms of Fedspeak, there was nothing surprising in the latest batch and little that is likely to alter the calculus for a June pause.

US equities mostly lower this week, though Big Tech generated a gain for the Nasdaq and provided a notable cusion for the S&P. Economic data reflected a continued easing of inflationary pressures, though there were also some worries about how weaker data fed into recession fears. The ongoing federal debt-ceiling crisis consumed a lot of bandwidth without any concrete signs of progress; however, discussions are ongoing and there remain thoughts a deal will ultimately be found. There was also a lot of commentary on the extremely narrow market leadership offered by Big Tech.

Regional banks continue to lag while big tech finished higher on the back of Google's outperformance.

The push and pull between Fed critics and supporters remains a theme. Hard landing camp aided by inverted yield curve while soft-landing points to a tight labor market and strong Q1 earnings. April PPI numbers came in softer than expected with core PPI in line, marking the lowest annualized print since January of 2021.

In terms of specific companies, Disney with mixed takeaways as the stock hit by a miss in DTC and softer 2H margin guidance for domestic parks...

US equities were mostly higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing down 9bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 45bps and 104bps respectively. Headline and core CPI both higher in April, largely in line with expectations, with the big takeaway seemingly the slowdown in core services excluding OER and rent to just 0.1%. The print supportive of Fed pause expectations but also Fed's higher-for-longer messaging. Debt ceiling stalemate another key topic for the market, with speculation that the most likely path revolves around a short-term reprieve that gives time to negotiate a budget deal that includes...

US equities finished lower in quiet Tuesday trading, ending just off session lows though trading rangebound and volume light. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finished down 0.17%, 0.46%, and 0.63%, respectively. Though there was nothing specific behind today’s pullback, some higher-profile earnings underwhelmed, regional banks still cannot bounce, debt ceiling angst remains elevated, and CPI data released tomorrow looms.  

US equities were narrowly mixed in very uneventful Monday trading. There was an Initial negative market reaction to the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) for April, though the report was largely as expected. Elsewhere, the latest NY Fed consumer survey showed 1Y inflation expectations down 0.3pp to 4.4%, though expected household spending growth is the weakest since Sep-21. 

U.S. equities mostly lower this week as the S&P gave back last week's gains. However, the absolute change of the S&P index was less than 1% for a fifth-straight week. Stocks finished off the week's lows with some push and pull from a number of factors, while takeaways from the latest economic data were mixed. The May FOMC meeting ended with a 25 bp rate hike to 5.0-5.25% as expected in a unanimous decision. Regional banks remain in focus, with JPM's takeover of FRC doing little to alleviate angst. With 85% of S&P 500 companies having reported, earnings continued...

Thursday's session was another day of regional bank weakness after the Fed raised rates on by a quarter point on Wednesday. PacWest led the downturn on reports that it's considering a range of strategic options including a sale. First Horizon also finished (33%) lower after regulatory issues derailed a takeover by Toronto-Dominion Bank. 

Apple reported a Q2 beat on EPS and revenue and plans to increase quarterly dividends and share buyback program.

Looking ahead, the much-anticipated April employment report is due out in the morning

US equities finished mostly lower and near worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing down 80bps, 70bps, and 46bps respectively. Fed raised rates by 25bp to 5-5.25%, which marked the median peak projection in the March dot plot. April ISM Services came in ahead on new order strength, and the ADP private payrolls also printed well ahead of estimates. Debt ceiling stalemate in focus with the Washington Post flagging the potential for a "two-track" agreement that both parties could define differently, while the NY Times noted the White House is debating a constitutional challenge to...

US equities finished lower in Tuesday trading, though major market indices came off worst levels from midday. Regional bank weakness was the big sector story today, while other laggards included energy and crude, credit cards, asset managers, chemicals, REITs, department stores, containerboard, and media. There was some scattered strength in pharma, machinery, semis, hotels, and HPCs. Overall, there has not been any major change in the bullish and bearish talking points. It was another very high-volume earnings day with over 60% of the S&P 500 having now reported. Looking ahead, the market is in a waiting game ahead of high-profile...

US equities ended slightly lower overall in fairly uneventful Monday trading. April ISM manufacturing index beat, though prices paid index reaccelerated after dipping into contraction in the prior month, and is back to the highest level since July. The Banking sector is in focus as JPM agreed to acquire most of FRC, assuming ~$92B of deposits and substantially all of its assets.