FactSet Evening Market Recap

Major US equity indices were higher for a second consecutive week after a ceasefire between the US and Iran provided further de-escalation momentum. March FOMC minutes leaned hawkish, as expected. March core CPI was slightly cooler than expected, while headline was in line, with energy up 10.9% and gasoline up 21.2%.

US equities were higher in Thursday trading, ending somewhat off best levels. The market was helped by some easing of ceasefire durability concerns related to Lebanon. In macro news, weekly initial jobless claims printed at 219K, above the 210K consensus.

US equities surged Wed., with major indexes +2.5-3%, as markets embraced a two-week US-Iran ceasefire that lifted geopolitical hedges and sent WTI to its worst session since Apr. 2020. The de-escalation trade drove outperformance in banks, airlines, and industrials, while energy and commodity-linked names lagged, and META stood out in big tech on the debut of its first model from Meta Superintelligence Labs.

US equities down in Tuesday afternoon trading, though off well worst levels. Big tech was mostly lower. Market preoccupied with the question of what will happen at 8pm Eastern tonight, Trump's deadline for Iran to make a deal or suffer widespread attacks.

US equities were higher in Monday trading. The market was building on last week's bounce amid abundant headline noise. Talk of ceasefire from this weekend has largely evolved as expected, with Iranian officials rejecting idea of a temporary ceasefire and arguing for a permanent solution while Trump stressed tomorrow night's final deadline and prospects for the US to do more damage to remaining energy infrastructure.

Major US equity indices were higher for the holiday-shortened week, helped by some hopes for a winding down of the Iran war. The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq were higher after five consecutive weeks down. The small-cap Russell 2000 notched its second consecutive weekly gain.

U.S. equities closed higher Wednesday driven by Iran conflict off-ramp optimism and stabilizing rates. Economic data beat across the board, with March ISM manufacturing at 52.7, Feb. retail sales +0.6% m/m, and March ADP payrolls coming in at 62K vs. 40K consensus. On the corporate side, NKE and RH disappointed on forward guidance, while OpenAI closed a record $122B funding round and SpaceX filed for one of the biggest IPOs ever.

US equities sharply higher Tuesday. S&P 500 posted biggest one-day gain since last May. Momentum, growth, high-beta, most-shorted names, retail-investor favorites and EM among the best performing factors/themes.

US equities were lower in Monday trading as stocks reversed early gains and ended a bit off session lows. There were a lot of moving pieces today. In macro news, Fed Chair Powell said Fed tools have no meaningful effect on supply shocks, and noted risks to both sides of the mandate.

US equities were mostly lower this week, with the Nasdaq the notable underperformer, but the small-cap Russell 2000 posting a modest gain for the week. Big tech was mostly lower this week, with semis, software, and memory also weaker. Meanwhile, it was a very busy week of Iran updates.

US equities were lower in Thursday trading as stocks reversed earlier gains to end near session lows. FCI is tightening as the market seems to have flipped back to conflict de-escalation skepticism amid another day of largely one-sided messaging. Initial jobless claims for the week to 21-Mar were in line with consensus at 210K.

U.S. stocks climbed Wednesday as hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire boosted risk appetite, sending oil lower and pulling Treasury yields down 4 to 7 basis points. Meta and Alphabet lagged the broader market following a social media negligence ruling, while gold and silver surged on the risk-on tone.

US equities were mostly lower in Tuesday trading as stocks ended off best levels. Lots of moving pieces today, particularly around the prospects for the conflict in the Middle East. March global flash services PMI came in at 51.1 vs 51.5 consensus and February's final 51.7.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, though ended off best levels. Stocks rallied on the latest optimism around the Iran war. In macro news, Chicago Fed's Goolsbee told CNBC he's concerned about whether energy prices may cause inflation expectations to become unanchored.

US equities were lower for the week, adding to last week's modest declines. Major indices are now down for the fourth straight week. The Iran conflict and oil implications dominated headlines with no clear near-term capitulation or off-ramp in sight.

US equities were mostly lower in Thursday afternoon trading, a bit off session highs. Geopolitics was the big focus today though headline volatility remains high and there was not much in the way of meaningful incremental development. Fundamental questions remain around the duration of the conflict in Iran, with no obvious off-ramps

U.S. stocks sold off Wednesday as investors turned more risk-off amid renewed Middle East escalation, including attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, retaliation threats against Gulf energy sites, and reports of a strike on a Qatari LNG facility. Markets also digested a hotter-than-expected February producer price report, which added to inflation concerns and pressured Treasuries. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged as expected, but hawkish takeaways from Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference further weighed on sentiment.

US equities were higher in Tuesday trading, though stocks ended just a bit off session lows. It was a quieter session compared to recent days as stocks built on Monday's rally despite the instability in the Middle East. The February pending home sales index was up 1.8% m/m, a surprise gain vs consensus for a 1.4% contraction.

US equities were higher in Monday trading, though off best levels. Stock rebounded in Monday trading with the biggest focus on potential relief for the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. In macro news, March’s Empire State Manufacturing Index went down seven points month over month to -0.2, missing estimates.

US equities were lower again this week. The war in Iran and its broader impacts remained the central story for the markets. Focus has remained sharply on the shipping standstill around the Strait of Hormuz, shut-in output by Persian Gulf producers, and crude prices near $100/barrel.