FX Factor

22 Episodes


Macroeconomic thoughts and analysis from CIBC’s award winning team of strategists along with implications for currencies, fixed income, and other asset classes.

The dynamics of the debt ceiling
Last Friday at 7:17 PM

Bipan Rai is joined by Peter Maiorano to hash out what could happen in the short-rates and FX markets amidst the ongoing debt ceiling concerns.

Catching up with Benjamin Tal

Bipan Rai and Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC Capital Markets, discuss the current state of affairs in the banking system and what it means for Fed and Band of Canada policy.

What’s up with the Fed’s RRP?

CIBC’s Peter Maiorano joins the podcast to talk about why take-up of the Fed’s overnight RRP facility remains so high and what to expect in 2023.

The quids aren’t alright – how the UK budget led to a collapse in the pound

Bipan is joined by UK-based FX Strategist Jeremy Stretch to discuss the UK budget, the gilts market and why the GBP collapsed over the past few days. Also, what can we expect from the Bank of England/UK Treasury going forward. Please note that this was recorded before the BoE announcement to buy long-end gilts on September 28.

The choice between a recession and inflation…

Bipan is joined by CIBC Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal to discuss the macro picture for the US and Canada – including the path for inflation going forward, what this means for rates/FX as well as the housing market.


Bipan is joined by Karl Wildi to discuss Canadian interest rate benchmark reform and the transition from CDOR to CORRA in the coming years.

The trouble with curves and soft landings

Bipan and Ian Pollick, Global Head of FICC Strategy, talk rates – including why yield curves are inverting and whether this is a reliable signal for assets in general. Also covered are expectations for the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve and what this means for FX markets going forward. Ian also goes over why we shouldn’t expect a ‘soft landing’ at the end of this cycle.

What the sanctions on Russia mean

CIBC’s Bipan Rai walks through the sanctions on the Central Bank of Russia and financial institutions in Russia and what they mean for the markets.

Framing the ECB and BoE going forward

Bipan and guest Jeremy Stretch review the recent European Central Bank and Bank of England meetings and go over what the next steps are for each central bank. 1:00 – 4:50: ECB meeting review 4:50 – 9:05: Inflation in the Eurozone / Why central banks are reacting to supply-side driven inflation 9:05 – 14:00: ECB next steps and sequencing 14:00 – 21:00: Market pricing for ECB hikes / Switching from the deposit rate to the refi rate 21:00 – 25:00: Hashing out the BoE rate hike and the terminal rate in the UK 25:00 – 29:40: On the BoE selling gilts 29:40 – 33:50: Period between rate hikes and QT for the BoE 33:50 – 37:05: Rapid fire questions

Year of the tiger

From Hong Kong, CIBC’s Patrick Bennett joins to discuss all things China. Is the economy entering a slowdown? Is the real estate sector there in deep trouble? What are the tools that the authorities using to provide liquidity? What’s next for US/China relations? (also…will Bipan stop asking rhetorical questions?) Find out in the podcast!

Crude awakening

Bipan is joined by Shaun Sherman (Head of Commodity Fundamentals at CIBC) to discuss the recent moves in energy prices, including what’s in store for the OPEC+ deal, Iran talks as well as the Russia/Ukraine issue. Shaun also provides an update over how high oil and natural gas prices may climb.

All About the Canadian Housing Market

Bipan is joined by CIBC Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal for a discussion on the Canadian housing market and where things are headed in the coming years. We learn why this market isn’t in ‘bubble’ territory and what the implications for projected Bank of Canada rate hikes could mean.

2021: A Rates Odyssey

Back by popular demand, the FX Factor podcast returns with Bipan and Ian discussing important macro themes. This includes the rise in global inflation, how the front-end of rates markets are currently priced, why sovereign rate curves have been flattening alongside what this all means for the currency markets.

Digesting the FOMC

Bipan is joined by Global Head of FICC Strategy, Ian Pollick, to unpack last week's Fed meeting and what it means for macro markets. Ian also finds a way to use words like "irregardless" and "universion".

Understanding the Fed’s RRP Facility

Bipan is joined by Peter Maiorano, Managing Director of Global Collateral Finance at CIBC, to talk about why the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facility has become a hot topic in the market of late.

The wild west of cryptoassets

CIBC Director of Global Collateral Finance Aaron Carter joins to look at why cryptocurrencies (including Bitcoin) are here to stay, what the differences are between them, and why central banks are looking to issue their own digital currencies.

Talking house prices, the recovery and inflation

CIBC Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal joins Bipan on this edition to chat about several hot button topics affecting the US and Canadian economies


CIBC Latin America Strategist Luis Hurtado joins to discuss political issues in Latin America and comments on which currency is best positioned going forward (spoiler alert: It’s NOT the Brazilian Real).

De-mystifying the repo market

CIBC repo market expert Aaron Carter joins to talk about a key area of the financial system that you might not be familiar with.

All Things China

Bipan chats with CIBC’s Head of Asia Strategy, Patrick Bennett, to discuss his outlook on the Chinese economy and the CNH. Other topics discussed include China’s annual parliamentary session and US/China relations.

Nonplussed about OPEC+

Bipan hosts Head of Commodity Fundamentals at CIBC NY, Shaun Sherman, to discuss the latest OPEC+ decision and ramifications for markets.

Hello world…

Bipan and Ian discuss why the Fed isn’t likely to taper until next year and what that should mean for FX and rates markets. Also, latest updates on the Bank of Canada and the CAD.