Sharp Football Analysis by Warren Sharp

NFL Week 9 takeaways from the numbers with Warren Sharp. Drake Maye finally met the schedule: pressured on 44 percent of dropbacks, hit 8 times, 3 interceptions, and New England turned it over on 28.6 percent of its drives while Green Bay turned it over on none. The Packers keep winning the first quarter and the first half. Cincinnati needed a fast start against a Falcons team that is 4-44 since 2019 when trailing by 3 at halftime, and opened Madrid with three straight touchdown drives, the best start of the Joe Burrow era. Jordan Love, the most underrated passer in the NFL entering the year...

NFL Week 9 best bets, player props and picks for Bengals at Falcons in Spain, Jets at Chiefs, Lions at Dolphins, Cardinals at Seahawks, Broncos at Panthers, Packers at Patriots and Bills at Vikings on Monday Night Football, plus the Week 9 referee report.

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Warren Sharp opens in Spain. Cincinnati has been slow in first quarters, and Atlanta gives up on the run when it falls behind, so the start of this game matters. Then Jets at Chiefs, a big step down in class for...

NFL Week 9 preview and matchups: Bengals vs Falcons in Madrid, Buccaneers at Bears on Sunday night, Packers at Patriots and Broncos at Panthers. Joe Burrow against a Falcons defense that just got James Pearce back, Ben Johnson against Todd Bowles for the third time, Drake Maye finally facing a top pass defense again, Bo Nix and the Broncos run game against a Panthers defense with a new play caller, plus two sneaky matchups: can the Bills run on the Vikings on Monday night, and the Lions run game at Miami.

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NFL Week 8 takeaways from the numbers with Warren Sharp. Minnesota put seven in the box on 88 percent of Detroit's snaps and blitzed Jared Goff on 79 percent of his dropbacks, both the most in the week, and the Lions ran for 218 yards anyway as Jahmyr Gibbs went from 3.4 yards a carry in the first half to 9.7 in the second. Baker Mayfield completed 0 passes and Tampa Bay won. Dallas led Arizona 17-3, ran it 15 times for 1.9 a carry on second half early downs, threw on the drive that should have ended the game and lost in overtime. Denver finally gave the...

NFL Week 8 best bets, player props and picks for Ravens at Bills, Browns at Steelers, Colts at Jaguars, Titans at Bengals, Chiefs at Broncos and Bears at Seahawks on Monday Night Football, plus the Week 8 referee report.

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Warren Sharp opens with strength of schedule. Seven weeks in, who has played the easiest and hardest schedules, and who has the softest road the rest of the way? Then the Steelers backfield, Jaylen Warren vs Rico Dowdle, in Browns at...

NFL Week 8 preview and matchups: Ravens at Bills, Vikings at Lions, Chiefs at Broncos and Falcons at Buccaneers. Lamar Jackson's return against a Bills defense giving up points, Jared Goff against the Brian Flores blitz, Bo Nix against Steve Spagnuolo and the numbers that decide each one, plus two sneaky matchups: Sam Darnold vs the Bears on Monday night and the Patriots passing game at Miami.

Josh Allen, D.J. Moore, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Jared Goff, Brian Flores, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Steve Spagnuolo, Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker, Bijan Robinson, Michael Penix...

NFL Week 7 takeaways from the numbers with Warren Sharp. Seattle took Kenneth Walker out of the game after he led the NFL in yards per carry, rushing yards, explosive rate and EPA through six weeks, and Kansas City became the only offense in the week that never reached the red zone. The Dolphins beat Aaron Glenn and the Jets, Baltimore keeps owning first halves and losing second halves, Cincinnati went from 0 first half points to 35 after the break, Sean Payton and Bo Nix beat Arizona with a quarterback as the leading rusher, the 49ers punted once in nine drives...

NFL Week 7 best bets, player props and picks for Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, Packers at Lions, Rams vs Raiders, Buccaneers at Panthers, Colts vs Vikings, Giants at Texans and 49ers at Falcons, plus the Week 7 referee report and three big college football games.

Warren Sharp opens with the Rams: 2-4 after the loss to Arizona, and without Davante Adams for months. What has to change against Las Vegas? Then Brian Flores, who pressures and blitzes like no one else, as Minnesota meets Daniel Jones and the Colts, and how Carolina should handle Todd Bowles...

NFL Week 7 preview and matchups: Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, Packers at Lions, 49ers at Falcons and Bengals at Ravens. Kenneth Walker's revenge game, Josh Jacobs' return and the run game numbers that decide each one, plus two sneaky matchups: Broncos vs Cardinals and Panthers vs Buccaneers.

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Kenneth Walker, Patrick Mahomes, Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold, Steve Spagnuolo, Zach Charbonnet, Jonathan Gannon, Jared Goff, Dan Campbell, Josh Jacobs...

NFL Week 6 takeaways from the numbers. Atlanta had the best run game in the week on a per carry basis and called 12 rushes, the fewest in the week, while Michael Penix got blitzed and sacked at the second worst rates of any quarterback. The Cowboys slipped, literally, and ran the worst early down run game of any first half in the week. 2026 is the second most penalized start to a season since 2000 and delay of game flags are at an all time high. The Steelers went from first and goal with 1:38 left to fourth and goal with 1:23 left and...

NFL Week 6 best bets, player props and picks for Cowboys at Packers, Bears at Falcons, Texans at Jaguars in London, Cardinals at Rams and Steelers at Buccaneers, plus the Week 6 referee report and three big college football games.

Warren Sharp opens with three keys to the Week 6 betting board: the Green Bay defense facing Dallas, the first half angle on short road favorites, and Houston in London. Ryan McCrystal breaks down Alabama at Tennessee, Notre Dame at BYU and Ohio State at Indiana. Rich Hribar brings three props, two from Cardinals at Rams and one from Steelers...

NFL Week 6 preview and matchups: Cowboys at Packers on Sunday Night Football, Bears at Falcons, Texans vs Jaguars in London and Steelers at Buccaneers. The pressure rates, personnel splits, run game numbers and coverages that decide each game, plus two sneaky matchups: 49ers at Commanders and Saints at Giants.

Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur, Tucker Kraft, Dak Prescott, Bijan Robinson, Montez Sweat, Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson, C.J. Stroud, Woody Marks, Aaron Rodgers, Todd Bowles, Brock Purdy, Cam Skattebo.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

• How Green Bay stopped getting Jordan Love hit, and the personnel and pl...

NFL Week 5 takeaways from the numbers. The Seahawks handed the 49ers all three touchdowns on turnovers and still finished last in the week in EPA per play, the Commanders led 12 to 3 at the half and let the Giants run the best second half of any offense, the Chargers offense broke in Denver and the Broncos won anyway, the Browns ran one shotgun look into the blitz for four quarters, and LaFleur finally threw over the loaded box. Plus a best bet for Monday Night Football, Rams at Bills, with Curtis.

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NFL Week 5 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. It starts with three keys that decide how you bet the weekend: Sam Darnold against a 49ers defense that takes away the middle of the field, the Bengals possibly without Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and why that might help Chase Brown against a Dolphins run defense with a split, and the Bears running outside zone at a Packers defense that cannot stop it. Then Ryan McCrystal on Alabama at Georgia, Oklahoma vs Texas and UCLA at Oregon, Rich...

NFL Week 5 matchups, stats and betting angles: 49ers at Seahawks, Eagles vs Jaguars in London, Colts at Steelers, Raiders at Patriots. The coverages, pressure rates and personnel splits that decide each game, plus two sneaky games: Bears at Packers and Vikings at Saints.

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Brock Purdy, Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold, Nick Bosa, Raheem Morris, Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Jordan Love, Tyler Shough, Brian Flores.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

• Why Mike Macdonald's defense is...

NFL Week 4 takeaways from the numbers. The most penalties in any NFL week since 2015 and record offensive flags in the red zone, the Texans blew a 10 point lead because they cannot run, the Eagles went three and out five times in the second half, the Rams won while playing left handed, and the Bengals offense fell apart without Ja'Marr Chase. Plus a best bet for tonight's Monday Night Football with Curtis.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

NFL Week 4 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. Warren Sharp opens with three matchups that decide how you bet the weekend, then Ryan McCrystal on the Saturday college slate, Rich Hribar with three favorite props including the first London game of the year, Joe Gibbs on the Week 4 referee crews, and the best bet of the week to close.

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Covered in this episode: Brian Flores, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Joe...

Warren Sharp and Rich Hribar break down the four matchups that decide Week 4, plus two under-the-radar games nobody is talking about.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

NFL Week 3 takeaways from the numbers. Dallas mismanaged the clock at the Baltimore 7, the Chargers got 5 Buffalo turnovers and did not even cover, and halftime adjustments decided several games. Plus a few best bets for Monday Night Football, Eagles at Bears, with Curtis.

What You'll Learn

• Why the Cowboys' timeout with 15 seconds left, the throwaway and the touchback handed Baltimore a chance
• Derrick Henry's short yardage numbers: 53% first down rate on 75 runs, ranked 70th of 73 backs
• How teams plus 4 in turnovers with 3 or fewer punts were 151-3 straight up since 1990, and the Chargers still...

NFL Week 3 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. Warren Sharp is 38-13 (75%) lifetime on podcast best bets, and this is the full Week 3 card: his best bet of the week plus a second bet, three props from Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal on three Saturday games and Joe Gibbs on the Week 3 referees.

It starts with four NFL matchups. The Chargers defense, stout against the run and falling apart against the pass, going to Buffalo to face Josh Allen. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has every Seattle touchdown...

Four matchups decide the biggest games of NFL Week 3: the Bills offense against the Chargers defense, Joe Burrow against the Steelers pass rush, the Ravens offense against the Cowboys defense in Brazil, and the Rams offense against the Broncos defense on Sunday night.

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Players discussed: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, Joe...

NFL Week 2 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus the biggest college football game of the weekend. Warren Sharp is 37-13 (74%) lifetime on podcast best bets, and this is the full Week 2 card: his best bet of the week, three props from Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal on LSU at Ole Miss and Joe Gibbs on the Week 2 referees.

It starts with three things from Week 1 that change how you bet Week 2. Houston's revamped offense and what it does to opponent play volume against the Bengals. Tampa's blitz rate against a Cleveland offense that cannot get the ball...

Three matchups decide the biggest games of NFL Week 2: the Bears offense against Brian Flores and the Vikings defense, the Steelers offense against the Patriots defense, and Dak Prescott against the Commanders pass defense.

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Players discussed: Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, Carson Wentz, Justin Jefferson, Aaron Rodgers, Jaylen Warren, Rico Dowdle, Jadarian Price, Drew Lock, Dak Prescott...

NFL Week 1 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus two college football sides for Saturday. Warren Sharp is 36-13 (73%) lifetime on podcast best bets, and this is the full Week 1 card: his best bet of the week, three props from Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal's college football picks and Joe Gibbs on the Week 1 referees.

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Players and teams discussed: Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Rhamondre...

Three matchups decide the biggest games of NFL Week 1, and this is the film and the numbers on all three: Texans offense against the Bills defense, the Bengals passing game against the Buccaneers front, and Ravens at Colts.

Houston's offense finished 30th in red zone touchdown rate last season and ran the fourth highest rate of three receiver sets down there. Buffalo has a new defensive coordinator and gave up 7.6 yards per carry against two tight end sets. Cincinnati is putting Joe Burrow under center after two years of shotgun at the second highest rate in the...

2026 NFL win totals, drafted. Three analysts pick 30 of the 32 teams in snake order by who will win the most games this season, with the schedule, roster and coaching reasons behind every pick and the two teams nobody wanted.

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Ten rounds, thirty picks, two teams left on the board. Every pick comes with a case for the team, a case against it, and the win total number the market put on it. The back half covers the two teams nobody drafted, the picks that could...

Twelve NFL player props and futures for the 2026 season from four Sharp Football analysts, with the schedule, target and blocking-scheme numbers behind them.

Get the full props and futures packages at sharpfootballanalysis.com/props.

Players and teams discussed: Josh Allen, D.J. Moore, Dalton Kincaid, Carnell Tate, Cam Ward, Elic Ayomanor, Rome Odunze, Jonathan Taylor, Jordan Love, Micah Parsons, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Woody Marks, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Jaylen Waddle, Javonte Williams, Chase Brown, Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving.

WHAT YOU WILL LEARN

• Why Buffalo's schedule of opposing of...

Fantasy football draft targets for 2026 - ten players Rich Hribar and JJ Zachariason are drafting this season, with the route rates, target share, red zone usage and ADP behind every pick.

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Rich Hribar is joined by JJ Zachariason of Late-Round Fantasy Football for the sixth year of their targets and avoids trade off. JJ brings Chase Brown, Malik Willis, Jaylen Waddle, Dalton Kincaid and Stefon Diggs. Rich brings DeVonta Smith, Justin Herbert, Christian Watson...

College football win totals and futures for the 2026 season — six win total bets across the Big 12, the ACC and the SEC, with every number, every price and the schedule spot that decides each one.

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Warren Sharp is joined by Sharp Football college betting analyst Ryan McCrystal for six 2026 futures before Week Zero: Cincinnati under 5.5 wins, Virginia over 7.5, Georgia Tech under 6.5, Cal over 6.5, Ole Miss to miss the College Football Playoff, and the best bet of the show, LSU ov...

NFL preseason Week 2 is over and five of the six quarterback situations on this tape look bad — plus beat-reporter intel from the 32BeatWriters network before final roster cuts.

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Warren Sharp walks the quarterback tape from preseason Week 2 — Deshaun Watson named the Browns starter, Cam Ward's rough two weeks in Tennessee, Bryce Young still on a leash, Bo Nix letting it rip in Denver, Fernando Mendoza under pressure in Las Vegas, and Aaron Rodgers giving Mike McCarthy nothing downfield. Then...

A 20-round full PPR best ball draft from the No. 1 overall pick — every pick argued out loud, plus what taking Jahmyr Gibbs at 1.01 costs you at running back two rounds later.

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Rich Hribar and Raymond Summerlin draft from pick 1 in a 12-team, 20-round full-PPR best ball tournament: Jahmyr Gibbs, Nico Collins, DeVonta Smith, David Montgomery, Christian Watson, Sam LaPorta, Jayden Reed, Jared Goff, Jacory "Bill" Croskey-Merritt, Jordan Love, Keaton Mitchell, Juwan Johnson, Ray Davis, Caleb Do...

The NFL is quietly going back under center, and it is not one or two teams, it is almost everybody. Warren Sharp charts every 2026 preseason week 1 offense against 2025 on first half early downs: shotgun rate, target depth, personnel groupings, pre-snap motion and where quarterbacks are throwing. 21 teams have a new offensive coordinator, and week 1 showed you what each of them wants to run.

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Best ball fantasy football draft for 2026, this time in full PPR — 20 rounds from the No. 3 pick, playing for a $3,000,000 first prize.

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Rich Hribar and Raymond Summerlin fire up their first full-PPR best ball draft of the year and take every pick live: Christian McCaffrey at 1.3, Malik Nabers, DeVonta Smith, Josh Jacobs, Mike Evans, Jadarian Price, Jalen Hurts, Harold Fannin Jr., Michael Pittman Jr., Brock Purdy, Rachaad White, Ra...

Warren Sharp runs through everything that matters heading into preseason week 1: what the Commanders lose with Laremy Tunsil gone, Patrick Mahomes vs Josh Allen for best quarterback of the decade, the 2026 schedule traps hiding behind last year's late quarterback surges in New Orleans and Jacksonville, the new Highmark Stadium, and what a single sack actually costs a drive.

Rich Hribar joins to explain moving Christian McCaffrey to No. 3 overall, and where Mahomes and Allen land for fantasy this season.

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CHAPTERS

0:00 What's on today's...

Raymond Summerlin and Rich Hribar draft a best ball team live from the number two pick, covering 2026 fantasy football ADP, best ball strategy, roster construction and the Stefan Diggs signing.

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Stefan Diggs is signing with the Washington Commanders, and the guys open by working through what it means for Terry McLaurin, Jayden Daniels, Chig Okonkwo and the late-round tight end market, plus why Deebo Samuel's move back into a familiar system is more interesting than the efficiency numbers suggest.

...

Warren Sharp ranks every NFL starting quarterback into tiers for 2026, covering all 32 teams, NFL QB rankings, quarterback tiers, betting futures and fantasy football draft value.

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Training camps are open, so Warren Sharp puts every starting quarterback in the NFL on one board and sorts them into five tiers, from "we can win the Super Bowl because of you" down to "we need to replace you."

This is not a...

The Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans & New York Giants each must make one key change in 2026 to improve their Super Bowl odds. 

Full offseason breakdown with betting & fantasy angles. Warren Sharp and Ray Summerlin break down the single most important fix for all four teams — straight from the 2026 Football Preview. 

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WHAT YOU'LL LEARN 

• Why the Chiefs fe...

2026 NFL Preview Book is live with 619 pages of football betting edges, fantasy football rankings, NFL win totals, team previews, schedule analysis and futures market insight. 

Get the 2026 Football Preview: https://sharp.football 

The 2026 NFL season starts now. The new Sharp Football Preview is here with 619 pages built to get you smarter before the market catches up. This episode breaks down what is inside the book, why this NFL season looks more wide open than usual, and how coaching changes, schedule edges, win totals, fantasy football trends and futures markets create opportunity before Week 1. 

Wha...

NFL rest edges could shape the 2026 season as Warren Sharp identifies major schedule advantages for teams like the Bears and Bills while the Chargers face one of the toughest rest disadvantages in years. 

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The 2026 NFL schedule is not only about who teams play. It is about when they play them. This full breakdown explains how rest advantages, short-week road games, mini-byes, bye-week timing, and schedule sequencing can impact betting markets, win totals, futures, playoff races, and team expectations. 

Warren Sh...

2026 dynasty rookie mock draft strategy starts with Jeremiyah Love as the clear 1.01, but the real debate begins at 1.02 with Fernando Mendoza, Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson, and more. 

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Jeremiyah Love is the obvious top pick in 2026 dynasty rookie drafts, but what happens after 1.01? 

Raymond Summerlin and Rich Hribar run through a full first-round dynasty rookie mock draft after the 2026 NFL Draft, breaking down Superflex strategy, rookie WR tiers, trade value, landing spots, and which picks could become traps. 

T...