Eurizon SLJ Capital
Providing first-hand emerging and developed market insights with a global context of how the world views these markets.
Oil, Interest Rates and US Market Volatility
Oil prices remain central to the interest rate outlook as US markets face renewed volatility. Matt Jones, Head of Distribution, and Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, discuss the global macro themes shaping the week ahead for professional investors.
Following the Bank of England’s rate rise to 4%, they assess divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee and how developments in the Middle East could influence inflation and further tightening. They also review contrasting signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Riksbank and Norges Bank.
Looking ahead, Bank of Japan and European Central Ba...
US Midterms, Bank of England and Global Fiscal Risks
US midterm elections, the Bank of England’s next interest rate decision and global fiscal pressures dominate the week ahead. Host Matt Jones, Head of Distribution at Eurizon SLJ Capital, is joined by Senior Portfolio Manager Neil Staines to discuss the outlook for professional investors.
In the UK, Neil assesses the budget’s limited demand impact and unresolved questions over debt and spending. With OBR forecasts missing the recent energy price surge, he expects a 25 basis point Bank of England hike, while retaining a more dovish medium-term economic outlook.
Globally, fiscal concerns in Brazil and Fran...
UK Budget, Fed Decision and Big Tech Earnings
The UK budget, Federal Reserve decision and big tech earnings headline the week ahead for global markets. Host Matt Jones, Head of Distribution at Eurizon SLJ Capital, is joined by Senior Portfolio Manager Neil Staines for a global macro outlook for professional investors.
In the UK, higher inflation and weak consumer data complicate the Bank of England outlook. A 25-basis-point hike is expected on 5 November, though fragile household demand and limited benefits from AI investment could make further increases harder to justify. The budget brings government borrowing costs, fiscal policy and the impact on businesses and households...
Rising Bond Yields, Credit Pressures and Global Growth
Rising bond yields are raising questions about global growth and corporate funding conditions. Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview the week ahead for professional investors, with UK inflation, China’s economic data and US earnings in focus.
UK: Inflation, interest rates and the Budget
Employment, CPI, public finances and retail sales arrive ahead of the 28 October Budget and 5 November Bank of England meeting. With a November rate rise largely priced, Neil considers second-round inflation risks, the potential duration of the tightening cycle and how fiscal policy could weigh on growth into 2027.
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Oil, Inflation and the Global Growth Outlook
Oil, Inflation and the Global Growth Outlook
Higher oil prices, rising bond yields and fiscal pressures are complicating the global growth outlook. Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the implications for inflation, interest rates and financial markets, alongside the key releases ahead for professional investors.
In the UK, August GDP will be scrutinised for signs of slowing growth amid energy headwinds and weaker housing indicators. Rising gilt yields add pressure ahead of the 28 October budget, with Bank of England commentary providing further insight into the policy outlook.
In Europe, France’s bu...
Rising Bond Yields, European Credit Risk and the Fed Outlook
Rising bond yields and widening European credit spreads are sharpening the focus on fiscal pressures and interest rates. Matt Jones and Neil Staines assess the implications for global markets and the key economic releases and central bank signals to watch in the week ahead.
In the UK, stronger Q2 GDP sits alongside persistent energy price pressures and elevated government borrowing costs. With 30-year gilt yields reaching 6.07%, attention turns to potential contagion from European bond markets and the growth, inflation and fiscal challenges facing the 28 October budget.
In Europe, French budget proposals have unsettled credit markets...
Oil Prices, Rising Yields and US Payrolls
Rising oil prices and bond yields are bringing the balance between inflation and growth into sharper focus. In this week’s episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones and Neil Staines of Eurizon SLJ Capital discuss the implications for global markets and the economic calendar ahead.
In the UK, higher energy costs and gilt yields are adding pressure ahead of the 28 October Budget. The discussion considers the economy’s underlying fragility and the outlook for interest rates, with Bank of England commentary, consumer credit and the final second-quarter GDP...
Oil, Central Banks and the Global Policy Outlook
Oil prices, inflation risks and a more hawkish global policy backdrop are reshaping the outlook for central banks and financial conditions.
Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates at 3.75%, alongside changes to quantitative tightening and three MPC votes for an immediate 25bp hike. With Governor Bailey signalling that persistent oil prices or Middle East tensions could influence the November outlook, they assess why market pricing for around 100bp of UK tightening may be difficult to reconcile with a still-fragile economy and pressure on public finances.
The discussion th...
Energy, Inflation and a Crucial Week for Global Central Banks
Energy prices are reshaping the global inflation and interest-rate outlook, with oil and natural gas feeding through to bond markets and central-bank expectations.
Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the week ahead, beginning in the UK, where July GDP surprised to the upside. Neil remains cautious about extrapolating the rebound, however, as renewed rises in oil and, importantly for Europe, natural gas tighten financial conditions and contribute to higher gilt yields. Attention turns to UK employment, inflation and retail sales, alongside a Bank of England meeting that is expected to leave rates unchanged, with November increasingly in...
Global Yields, UK Fiscal Risk and the Fed Outlook
Global yield curves remain at the centre of the macro debate as markets weigh higher energy prices, fiscal pressures and the outlook for central bank policy.
Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss recent bond-market selling, the ECB’s expected 25bp rate hike to 2.5%, and the growing interaction between fiscal policy, inflation and tighter financial conditions across the Eurozone.
In the UK, attention turns to fiscal credibility ahead of the Budget and the Bank of England’s next policy update, with the economy still appearing too weak to support further rate hikes.
They also look...
Payrolls, UK Fiscal Uncertainty and the Global Policy Outlook
US payrolls take centre stage as markets turn from Federal Reserve policy back to the data, while UK fiscal uncertainty and global inflation developments shape the wider macro outlook.
Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview the week ahead for professional investors. In the UK, recent employment and retail sales data remain weak, while underlying services and wage pressures are moderating despite elevated headline inflation. The monetary policy implications remain neutral to dovish, but the fiscal outlook is less certain as Prime Minister Burnham faces his first Prime Minister’s Questions. Eurizon SLJ Capital remains cautious on the UK...
UK Fiscal Risks, Global Yields and the Fed at Jackson Hole
Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss a global macro backdrop shaped by UK fiscal uncertainty, renewed inflation concerns, rising long-end bond yields and the policy signals investors will be watching at Jackson Hole.
In the UK, a higher inflation print was driven by energy price-cap changes, while services and labour cost growth continued to ease. Weak retail sales, a disappointing fiscal print and concerns around the jobs market remain consistent with a cautious view of the UK economy and have dovish implications for the Bank of England. Attention now turns to the Governor’s comments in Wyoming an...
UK Reset, ECB Signals and the AI Earnings Test
Matt Jones and Neil Staines look ahead to a week shaped by UK political change, major economic releases, the ECB meeting and US earnings.
As Andy Burnham becomes Labour leader and Prime Minister, markets will assess his cabinet appointments, fiscal priorities and the potential implications for taxation, public spending and government borrowing. Employment, CPI, business-confidence and retail-sales data will provide fresh evidence on labour-market slack, inflation and underlying demand. Continued uncertainty around the Autumn Budget may also weigh on business investment.
Globally, the calendar includes Australian employment, German ZEW, eurozone consumer confidence and July’s fl...
UK Leadership, European Deficits and the US Inflation Test
Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to discuss the key macroeconomic and market themes facing professional investors in the week ahead.
In the UK, attention turns to the Parliamentary Labour Party’s leadership nomination deadline and the policy direction of the next administration. Neil considers the commitment to the existing fiscal rules, the fragile backdrop for output, employment and productivity, and the latest GDP, trade and industrial production data. He also examines the prospect of a more dovish Bank of England during the second half of the year and the importance of maintaining credibility in the gi...
Lower Oil, Softer Inflation and Shifting Rate Expectations
Falling oil prices are beginning to reshape the outlook for inflation, monetary policy and global interest rates.
Matt Jones and Neil Staines assess the macroeconomic themes likely to drive markets in the week ahead, including continued UK fiscal uncertainty, the increasingly dovish signals from major central banks and the implications of lower energy prices for rate expectations.
In the UK, they consider the political and fiscal backdrop, the apparent ÂŁ15 billion budget shortfall and the commitment to existing fiscal rules that has so far helped keep gilt markets calm. They also examine Bank of England Governor A...
From Makerfield to Hormuz: Markets Watch the Risks
Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to review a busy week for macro markets and look ahead to the key themes investors will be watching next.
In the UK, softer CPI and PPI, firmer employment data, and stronger retail sales added to a more constructive data backdrop. The Bank of England left rates unchanged at 3.75 percent, with two hawkish dissents, but Eurizon SLJ’s view remains that rates are likely to stay on hold through the summer, with Bank Rate pricing lower towards the end of 2026. Neil also discusses why the Makerfield by-election could keep gilt ma...
Week Ahead: UK CPI, Global Central Banks and the First FOMC Under Kevin Warsh
Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview a busy macro week, led by the UK, where markets face a heavy run of data, a Bank of England decision, and a politically sensitive by-election.
In the UK, they discuss the backdrop after a negative April GDP print and a cabinet resignation, before looking ahead to the Makerfield by-election, May CPI, employment data, retail sales and the BoE meeting. Neil outlines why the bar for further rate hikes remains high, even if additional MPC dissent is possible, and why rates may still be biased lower by year-end.
They...
Central Banks Face the Growth Test
Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview a holiday-shortened week shaped by geopolitics, energy risks, and shifting central bank reaction functions.
In the UK, weaker labour, inflation, retail sales, and PMI data have pushed growth fragility back into focus, while the RBA signals a pause and the ECB faces a more acute policy dilemma. Neil also looks ahead to key data from Europe, Japan, and the US, including core PCE, revised Q1 GDP, and consumer confidence, with Strait of Hormuz risks still capable of driving oil and broader market volatility.
Chapters
00:00 Show Intro
 00:29 U...
Political Volatility, Higher Yields, and the Global Growth Test
Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to discuss the macro themes shaping the week ahead.
This week’s episode focuses on rising UK political volatility, its impact on the UK yield curve, and the implications of high debt, elevated deficits, and limited fiscal headroom. Neil also looks at why stronger recent growth data may need to be treated with caution, as seasonality, higher oil prices, and rising yields create a more complicated backdrop for Q2 and Q3.
Globally, attention turns to whether the Trump-Xi meeting represents genuine pr...
Growth, Inflation and the Global K-Shaped Recovery
Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to discuss the macroeconomic themes shaping the week ahead for professional investors.
This week’s conversation covers UK political volatility following the local elections, the fiscal implications for gilt markets, and the outlook for UK assets as markets await Q1 GDP. Neil explains why Eurizon SLJ remains less optimistic than the market on UK growth, and why Bank of England rate cuts in 2026 may remain on the table.
The discussion also turns to the global macro backdrop, where a potential US-Iran of...
Central Banks Face the Oil Test
Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to preview the macro themes shaping the week ahead.
This episode focuses on how persistent oil-price shocks could affect global monetary policy. Neil discusses the Bank of England’s warning that higher oil prices may imply a tighter policy path, the underlying weakness in the UK economy, and the added market uncertainty around local elections.
The conversation also covers the Bank of Japan, yen weakness and MOF intervention, the ECB’s rate-hike outlook, and the key US data to watch, including non...
Five Years On: Central Banks, Oil Shocks, and the Week Ahead
This week marks the fifth anniversary of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead.
In this milestone episode, Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to discuss a busy week for global macro markets, with central banks, inflation, oil prices, and political uncertainty all in focus.
Neil looks at the UK after a volatile week for politics and data, assessing what recent inflation, labour market, and retail sales figures could mean for the Bank of England. He then turns to a packed global central bank calendar, including the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada...
The Oil Shock and the Global Policy Response
In this episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to discuss the key macro themes shaping markets in the days ahead.
They begin with the UK, where weaker growth forecasts, fiscal pressure, and stagflation concerns continue to weigh on the outlook. From there, the conversation turns to Europe, where the debate centres on how policymakers should respond to the energy shock and what that could mean for ECB rate expectations.
Neil also looks across the global landscape, highlighting upcoming PMI data, German sentiment surveys, and...
Holding the Line: Inflation Risks, Weak Growth, and the Policy Dilemma
Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the macro themes for the week ahead after a volatile week for central banks and markets amid uncertainty around the Iran situation. In the UK, the Bank of England held rates, struck a more hawkish tone with a 9–0 vote, and stressed inflation risks from elevated energy prices, though growth vulnerability and rising unemployment risks keep a high bar for hikes and support an ultimately needed, delayed rate-cut path; upcoming UK CPI and retail sales are key. Globally, the ECB, SNB, Riksbank, and Bank of Canada also held rates while balancing upside inflation and do...
From the Bank of England to the Fed: Policy Under Pressure
Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss a complex global macro backdrop dominated by the Iran conflict’s impact on oil, inflation expectations, yields, equities, and growth, with market focus shifting to a heavy week of central bank meetings. In the UK, weak sales, house prices, and a softer January GDP print reinforce growth concerns; despite markets repricing toward possible Bank of England hikes, Staines sees a high bar given weakening growth and reduced fiscal space, though statement language will be closely parsed. Elsewhere, the RBA is expected to bring forward a 25bp hike, while the Bank of Canada, SNB, Ri...
Forecasts and Fragility: UK Spring Statement, US CPI, and China’s Growth Tolerance
Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the macro themes for the week ahead against major uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, noting it is likely to dominate sentiment and positioning while they limit forecasts to the macroeconomy. In the UK, the Spring Statement brought no policy change but updated OBR projections: 2026 growth cut to 1.1% (from 1.4%), peak unemployment lifted to 5.3% (from 4.9%), and inflation lowered to 2.3%. The fiscal outlook also improved via higher projected revenues and lower debt funding costs due to a lower yield curve, though they remain skeptical given January tax effects and the sensitivity of public finances to...
From China’s Two Sessions to US Payrolls: A Consequential Week Ahead
Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss a global macro backdrop where markets appear calm at the headline level but show significant divergence underneath, including record-high equity dispersion, private credit uncertainty despite tight spreads, and varied European inflation and growth dynamics alongside flat ECB rate expectations. They preview a busier week of data: Australia’s inflation gauge, GDP and trade (watched for expectations of one more RBA hike); Europe’s February CPI, unemployment, retail sales, and final manufacturing and services PMIs; and China’s “Two Sessions,” including growth targets and the 15th five-year plan. They also flag CPI releases across multiple e...
Three Drivers for the Week Ahead: UK Cuts, Aussie CPI, US Geopolitics
 Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss macro themes for the week ahead for professional investors. In the UK, recent data show unemployment at a new cycle high of 5.2% (above COVID highs), conflicting private vs public pay trends, and CPI signals of underlying weakness as administered prices drop out of annual comparisons; inflation is expected to return to target by mid-year, and UK 10-year yields are ~25 bps lower over two weeks. Next week’s UK watchpoints include consumer confidence and comments from MPC members at both dovish and hawkish ends, as markets debate whether the next rate cut is in Mar...
Repricing Risk: UK Data, Antipodean Policy, and US GDP
In this episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead (Eurizon SLJ Capital), Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to break down the macro themes set to matter most for professional investors.
The UK remains front and centre, with the employment report, January CPI and retail sales providing key inputs for Bank of England expectations. The conversation then shifts globally, focusing on Australia’s policy outlook via RBA minutes and labour market data, and New Zealand’s rate decision and guidance. In the US, attention turns to the trade balance and Q4 GDP, alongside sign...
Policy Paths: UK Dovishness, US Data, Japan Risk
Matt Jones (Eurizon SLJ Capital) is joined by Senior Portfolio Manager Neil Staines to map the week ahead across rates, data, and event risk. They unpack the Bank of England’s latest signals, the key UK releases to watch, ECB messaging and the role of FX, and a global run of inflation prints including China. In the US, attention turns to the rescheduled non-farm payrolls and CPI, with potential implications for the Fed’s reaction function. They finish with a quick weekend sports preview.
In this episode
UK: Bank of England signals and...From Threadneedle Street to Payrolls: The Week Ahead in Macro
In this episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones and Neil Staines run through the key macro themes for the days ahead, from Bank of England projections and UK policy signals to global central bank watchpoints, China PMI data, and a US calendar that culminates in non-farm payrolls.
What we cover
UK policy week: the Bank of England meeting, updated projections, and the inflation pathMarket pricing versus expectations for the UK rate-cut trajectoryGlobal central banks in focus, including the Reserve Bank of Australia and European Central BankChina’s PMI da...USDJPY Intervention Watch and the Week of Central Banks
In this episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to map the key macro catalysts investors are watching.
They start in Japan, where the February 8 general election announcement, renewed fiscal debate, and long-end JGB moves have put policy credibility and FX dynamics back in focus, alongside rising speculation around Ministry of Finance intervention risk in USD/JPY. The conversation then turns global, with a packed calendar of central bank decisions across DM and EM, before finishing in the US with the FOMC meeting, the key themes to...
Davos, Data, and Earnings: What Markets Are Watching
In this episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to discuss the key macro signals markets are likely to focus on next week, with Davos, major data releases, and earnings season shaping the agenda.
The conversation covers the UK’s crucial run of releases, China’s growth and activity data, Australia and Europe’s policy-sensitive prints, and why the US narrative may be driven as much by geopolitics and messaging as by the data calendar.
Key topics...
Central Banks, Inflation Data, and the Global Rate Outlook
In this episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to discuss the latest inflation data, central bank signals, and what they mean for the global rate outlook in 2026.
The conversation covers the UK macro backdrop, key global inflation prints, and why upcoming data will be critical for the Fed, the Bank of England, and other major central banks as markets reassess rate expectations.
Key topics discussed include:
How weak demand and political dynamics are shaping the UK outlook and Bank of England...2026 Begins with Inflation, the Fed, and the Labour Market
In this episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead podcast by Eurizon SLJ Capital, host Matt Jones speaks with Senior Portfolio Manager Neil Staines about the global macroeconomic outlook for 2026 and the key market drivers shaping the year ahead.
The discussion explores expectations for continued disinflation following 2025, the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and interest rate expectations, and the implications for global markets. Neil outlines why this environment may remain broadly supportive for equities and bonds, while the US dollar faces relative pressure, particularly against Asian currencies.
The episode focuses on four co...
Data-Driven Fed, BoJ Watch, and a Key Week for the Bank of England
In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead', Matt Jones and Neil Staines from Eurizon SLJ Capital provide an in-depth analysis of the upcoming macroeconomic themes. Key highlights include the impact of the recent FOMC meeting on US rates and the dollar, anticipated economic data from Japan, Europe, Australia, and China, as well as central bank meetings in Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and Colombia. The episode also examines the UK’s economic state and expectations for the Bank of England's next moves. Additionally, listeners get a preview of the upcoming sports events including Premier League matches, th...
Monetary Crossroads: Global Rate Paths and the Fed’s 2026 Lens
In this week's episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' by Eurizon SLJ Capital, hosts Matt Jones and Neil Staines delve into the upcoming global central bank meetings and their potential impact on monetary policy. With notable rate cuts from India and Poland, anticipated decisions from the RBA, Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, and emerging market banks like Brazil and Turkey, the episode provides comprehensive insights. Japan, China, Australia, and the UK's economic data are analysed for their impact on global markets. The discussion also previews the US Federal Reserve's forthcoming FOMC meeting and its...
Inflation, Weak Growth, and What Comes Next for the UK
In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones and Neil Staines from Eurizon SLJ Capital discuss the macroeconomic themes expected in the upcoming week. Key topics include the recent UK CPI data and the anticipated fiscal policies in the UK's budget, as well as notable economic updates from Europe, Japan, Australia, and the US. The podcast also touches on potential market volatility leading up to Thanksgiving and the upcoming sporting events over the weekend.
00:00 Introduction and Welcome
00:27 UK Macroeconomic Overview
02:20 Global Macroeconomic Highlights
03:58 US Economic Outlook
05:36...
Fiscal Strains, Hawkish Signals, and the Return of US Data
In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss key macroeconomic themes and market forecasts for professional investors. They focus on the UK's upcoming budget, potential fiscal impacts, and future economic projections. The discussion also covers European Central Bank policies, the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance, global PMI data, and anticipated economic indicators from the US post-government shutdown. Additional insights include economic updates from Poland, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, and South Africa. Lastly, they touch on upcoming leadership events in sports, including football qualifiers, Formula One, boxing matches, and...
Holding, Waiting, Watching: The UK, China, and U.S. in Focus
In this week's episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones, Head of Distribution at Eurizon SLJ Capital, is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager, to discuss key macroeconomic themes. They analyze the Bank of England's decision to leave rates unchanged and its implications for UK growth. Global economic indicators from China, Australia, Europe, and the USA are also reviewed, including employment reports, GDP estimates, and inflation data. The episode concludes with a look at upcoming sports events and the anticipation surrounding them.
00:00 Introduction and Welcome
00:27 UK Macroeconomic Outlook and...
