The Trade Guys
Trade experts Scott Miller and Bill Reinsch break down the buzz around trade, how it affects policy, and how it impacts your day-to-day. The Trade Guys is hosted every week by H. Andrew Schwartz at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, D.C. Email your questions to TradeGuys@csis.org.
A New U.S.-China Framework Agreement and the Stubbornness of Globalization
On this episode of the Trade Guys, we discuss the results of the latest round of U.S.-China negotiations on tariffs and export controls in London. We also go through recent progress on new and expanding trade deals—including the EU-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA)—many of which are proceeding with the U.S. on the sidelines.
The first episode of Echonomics, a new CSIS podcast that looks at how past economic events in Asia continue to impact U.S. policy today, is now available online. Find it here.
An Export Control Chat with Jeannette Chu
On this episode of the Trade Guys, we welcome the National Foreign Trade Council's Jeannette Chu to talk us through the latest developments in trade and security, including the Trump administration's "disco ball" approach to export controls, Section 232 tariffs, and other tools.
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, EU Tariff Threats, and the Big Beautiful Bill
On this episode of the Trade Guys, we walk through decisions by two federal courts blocking the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). We then look at the president's recent threat of 50% tariffs on the EU and the "Big Beautiful" budget reconciliation bill moving through Congress.
Rep. Suzan DelBene Returns
On this special episode of the Trade Guys, we welcome back Representative Suzan DelBene from Washington's 1st District for her perspectives on the “Big Beautiful Bill” and an outlook on current trade priorities, including efforts to reassert Congress’s constitutional role in trade.
Lessons and Next Steps from Deals with China and the UK
On this episode of the Trade Guys, we unpack the Geneva agreement between the U.S. and China to deescalate their trade war. We also look at the US-UK framework agreement and what lessons it offers for other countries looking to negotiate with the Trump administration.
Tariff Talk Live at BAFT
The Trade Guys were honored to open the third day of the BAFT (Bankers Association for Finance and Trade) Global Annual Meeting in Washington. They discuss the latest buzz around tariffs and take questions from the live audience.
The Amazon Kerfuffle, Tariff Negotiations Update, and Non-Tariff Barriers
On this episode of the Trade Guys, we open with a discussion of the swift White House reaction to Amazon's consideration of a plan to display the tariff costs on its products. We also provide updates on ongoing tariff negotiations with other countries and dig into what the administration considers to be non-tariff barriers.
Mapping the Impacts of Tariffs with Stephen Lamar
On this episode of the Trade Guys, we welcome Stephen Lamar, President and CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear Association, for his perspectives on the impacts of tariffs on supply chains and domestic production.
Letters from the Trade War: Polling, Chinese Export Controls, and Negotiations
On this episode of the Trade Guys, we begin by discussing recent public opinion polling on the Trump administration's tariff policies. We also explore retaliatory export controls on critical minerals put in place by China and the current outlook for partners seeking to make a deal with the White House.
Want to build your knowledge of American trade policy and politics by learning from top experts? Join the Trade Guys for a hybrid course on May 8-9. Learn more and sign up here: Crash Course: Trade Policy with the Trade Guys
Emergency Trade Guys: Tariff Whiplash and Chinese Decoupling
On another emergency episode of the Trade Guys, Bill, Scott, Andrew, and Phil react to President Trump's 90-day pause of his planned reciprocal tariffs, recent swings in stock and bond markets, and the ramifications of an escalating trade war with China.
Liberation Day Fallout and What Comes Next
On this bonus episode of the Trade Guys, we unpack the latest news about the impacts of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs and how markets, trading partners, and consumers will respond.
Techno-Nationalism with Alex Capri
This week, Bill and Scott talk to author and professor Alex Capri about his new book Techno-Nationalism: How It's Reshaping Trade, Geopolitics and Society.
Emergency Trade Guys: Reciprocal Tariff Reactions
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, Bill and Andrew give their first takes on the April 2 tariff announcements from the White House.
Auto Tariffs and U.S.-India Trade Relations
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we unpack the recent tariffs on cars. We also do a deep dive on trade relations with India.
Want to build your knowledge of American trade policy and politics by learning from top experts? Join the Trade Guys for a hybrid course on May 8-9. Learn more and sign up here: Crash Course: Trade Policy with the Trade Guys
For Every Move, A Countermove: An EU Trade War and the Impacts of Tariffs on the U.S.
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we talk through the latest developments around the Trump administration's application of tariffs on the European Union. We also look at the impacts of the tariffs on the U.S., with a particular focus on the auto industry.
Want to build your knowledge of American trade policy and politics by learning from top experts? Join the Trade Guys for a 1.5-day hybrid course on May 8-9. Learn more and sign up here: Crash Course: Trade Policy with the Trade Guys
Scholl Chair Phil Luck and the Trade Guys Provide a Tariff Update
The Trade Guys are joined by the new Scholl Chair in International Business, Dr. Philip Luck, to provide an update on tariffs on Canada and Mexico and to discuss the Mar-a-lago Accords.
What is up with the Tariff Man: A Pause for Tariffs on Canada and Mexico
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we discuss the updates to tariffs on Canada and Mexico, bills in Congress aiming to limit presidential authority, and the trade deficit.
Chinese Shipbuilding and a Trump Tariff Roundup
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we discuss USTR's Section 301 investigation of China's shipbuilding sector. We also go through several recent executive orders and directives related to tariffs and investment.
The European Regulation Landscape and the EU-U.S. Relationship
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we talk through the crossroads that Europe has reached vis-à-vis its regulatory approaches and relationship with the United States.
Trump's Trade Policy in Context: A Conversation with Doug Irwin
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, Bill and Scott are joined by special guest Doug Irwin, the John French Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College and a leading trade policy expert.
The Tariff Man Strikes Again
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we will talk about the announced but ultimately delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with the tariffs on China.
The Colombia Kerfuffle, Trade Remedies, and EU Deregulation
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we discuss the trade implications of President Trump's dispute with the president of Colombia. We also look at the potential for increased focus on trade remedies in the U.S. and a European shift towards deregulation.
Trump's First Days and a U.S. FDI Boom
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we run through the early trade actions of the new administration and what may come next. We also unpack the record-high U.S. share of global foreign direct investment (FDI).
A Biden Trade Retrospective, Indonesia Joins BRICS, and AI Export Controls
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we step back and assess the Biden administration's record on trade policy, including a preview of what may change under Trump. We also discuss Indonesia's ascension to full membership in BRICS and the latest export controls on AI GPUs.
China's Shots Across the Bow, Nippon Steel Woes, and the H1-B Debate
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we look at recent Chinese export controls on critical minerals and entity listings of U.S. companies. We also weigh in on President Biden's blocking of the Nippon Steel acquisition of U.S. Steel and the recent controversy surrounding H1-B visas.
The Fate of the WTO, Useful Data on China Sanctions, and Space Export Controls
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we discuss what the incoming U.S. administration will mean for the future of the World Trade Organization. We also dive into a new study on “The Rise of US Economic Sanctions on China” from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, as well as the relaxation of export controls on space-related technologies by BIS.
More Nominees, New Export Controls, and the Future of USMCA
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we look at what we can learn from the full slate of economic cabinet nominees for the incoming administration. We also dive into new export controls from BIS, China's response to the controls, and how Trump's threats of tariffs on Canada and Mexico will play out.
Trump's Cabinet, Vietnam in the Crosshairs, and Chinese Retaliation
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we comment on the current and potential nominees for trade-relevant cabinet positions. We then dig into why Vietnam will be a target for trade actions under the incoming administration and how China might respond to anticipated tariff hikes.
The Return of Tariff Man
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we give our first reactions to the reelection of Donald Trump and speculate about what trade and economic policy will look like in the next administration.
BRICS De-Dollarization Efforts, the G20, and a U.S. Manufacturing Outlook
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we talk about the BRICS Summit and efforts to move away from dollar dominance, the G20 Trade and Investment Ministers' Meeting, and a new study from the Peterson Institute's Robert Lawrence that assesses recent U.S. efforts to re-shore manufacturing jobs.
Live at the National Small Business Exporter Summit
This week, the Trade Guys recorded their show live at the National Small Business Exporter Summit hosted by NASBITE International. They talk U.S. elections and the services economy, then field questions from the audience.
USMCA Renewal, Nobel Prize in Economics, and the Return of the Pandas
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we preview the upcoming 2026 renewal of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), dig into the Nobel-winning work on the importance of societal institutions for a country’s prosperity, and discuss the return of pandas from China to the National Zoo.
Big Questions on Trump's Tariff Authorities and the Causes of Inflation
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we look at two recent pieces of note. Check out "Making Tariffs Great Again: Does President Trump Have Legal Authority to Implement New Tariffs on U.S. Trading Partners and China?" by Warren Maruyama, Lyric Galvin, and William A. Reinsch, as well as "Did supply chains deliver pandemic-era inflation?" by Phil Levy.
Port Strike, Critical Technology Ties with India, and EU Deforestation Regulation
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we unpack the ramifications of the port strike currently impacting the East Coast and Gulf. Next, we look at U.S.-India collaboration on critical minerals and semiconductors, as well as the recently delayed EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).
Trump-Harris Economic Plans and a U.S. Ban on Connected Vehicle Technology Imports
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we dive into the economic records and agendas of the two major presidential candidates. We also cover the Commerce Department's proposed ban on the import and sale of connected vehicle technologies from China and Russia.
A Deep Dive on the Chinese Economy with Scott Kennedy
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we are lucky to be joined by Scott Kennedy, the Senior Adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at CSIS. Discussion topics include the origins of China's economic downturn, Taiwanese investment in China, and what the future may hold for the world's second-largest economy and its trade relationships.
New Export Controls, the Draghi Report, and Plans to Block Nippon Steel Deal
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we discuss the Commerce Department's recent export controls on quantum computing and other advanced technologies, a new report on European economic competitiveness from Mario Draghi, and reporting that the Biden Administration plans to block Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel.
Want to learn more about the intricacies of Washington? Sign up for Decoding D.C.: Policy, Power, and People, a CSIS executive education course featuring Trade Guy Scott Miller.
The China Challenge: Tariffs from Canada, Deepening Ties with the EU, and the Drawbacks of De-Risking in India
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we look at how diverse countries from around the world are managing their respective trade relationships with China. Topics include the recent Canadian tariffs on Chinese EVs, the EU's trade connections with China, and why de-risking in India may not mean a clean break from China.
Want to learn more about the intricacies of Washington? Sign up for Decoding D.C.: Policy, Power, and People, a CSIS executive education course featuring Trade Guy Scott Miller.
What Opinion Polling Tells Us About the Public’s Views on Trade
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we examine recent polls released by the Cato Institute and Pew Research that examined how Americans think about trade. Note that the appendix referenced near the end of the episode is from a 2022 survey by Gallup.
Challenges to the EU EV Tariffs, Prospects for Congressional Trade Action, and Diversification from China
On this week's episode of the Trade Guys, we check in on the EU’s electric vehicle tariffs after a Chinese WTO challenge, opine on whether congressional action on trade should be expected before the new administration, and explore a recent study on U.S. diversification away from China by the Rhodium Group.
