PERSPECTIVES Weekly: The Investment podcast

Stock markets are trading around record highs after a bumpy second quarter – but the end of the Trump administration’s tariff pause and the kick-off of US earnings season will be in focus in the week ahead, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's Chief Investment Officer for sustainability and head of the CIO office. "The Q2 S&P rally has indeed been remarkable", Markus says. "Investors have gone back into US stocks. The rally is supported by a very resilient US job market."

The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its latest meeting this week, and there...

Stocks have been boosted by a variety of factors, including the Iran-Israel ceasefire and progress on a U.S.-China trade deal, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. And he says the likely passage of the Republican spending bill could also be supportive: "It is a ‘zoom out’ version of fiscal spending from the government that should be really positive for risk-on.”

U.S. labour-market data are likely to take precedence in the week ahead, Deepak says. He also notes that the second-quarter earnings season, which kicks off the following week, is...

“Most central banks will prefer to sit back and wait and see.” In this week’s PERSPECTIVES Weekly podcast, the Global Head of the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Office, Markus Müller, notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to stay put on rates is likely to be echoed by other central banks, as the economy confronts geopolitical instability and trade uncertainty. The Fed’s Chairman, Jerome Powell, made clear that the U.S. central bank is “well positioned to take a wait-and-see approach on the future path of rate cuts.” 

In his other capacity as the Pr...

Geopolitical instability is back in focus for markets after Israel’s attack on Iran. "Those kind of market events, it's good to review your portfolio", says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. And when it comes to hedging strategies, "The best of course is diversification", Christian says. "You need to have robust portfolios which can take these market movements."

The Federal Reserve is due to deliver an updated policy statement, and softer inflation data along with weaker labour-market figures have given the central bank a bit more room to manoeuvre, Christian says. Still, he a...

The Private Bank just published an updated 12-month outlook for markets and the economy, and "We clearly have investments on our mind”, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. He notes that European equities in particular could hold interesting opportunities.

"You can actually be cautiously constructive... financial markets overall can probably cope with the tariffs that will most likely be implemented", Dirk says.

Even during the typically quiet summer months, bouts of volatility are likely to return, Dirk says. "We think it is important now to stay disciplined. We don't want to be co...

“There are a lot of moving parts to this trade narrative,” says the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, Deepak Puri. Initial market optimism that the tariff narrative was going to be short-lived seems to have been complicated by recent events. “The tariff story may stay with us for some time,” Deepak says, adding that “investors need to be quite nimble about all this”.

Recent weakness in bond markets could be linked to oversupply, Deepak explains, with long-dated treasuries attracting additional scrutiny. However, he highlights that bonds still have an important role to play in a balanced...

Markets are focusing again on tariff policies after a period of relative calm, but that shouldn’t be too surprising, says the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting. “I still think there will be a solution. There will be higher tariffs than we have seen before”, Christian says, though he notes that they are likely to be lower than the rates currently under discussion.

Earnings season is mostly over, and while companies have delivered solid results, they have also lowered their expectations for the rest of the year. “I’m not surprised the outlook for companie...

Markets have staged a remarkable recovery from the sell-off that began in early April, and "it's been an incredible month", says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. "We are still talking about significant tariffs, but there seems to be more of a managed approach", Dirk says.

A big part of the rally was "a very supportive earnings season", Dirk says, noting that the important data in the week ahead will be figures on business confidence. "These will be at the centre of the market discussion."

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Markets are looking for clarity on what the baseline tariff rates will ultimately be among key trading partners – and the recent U.S.-U.K. trade deal offers a promising sign, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. "It might be sort of a blueprint for other trade agreements”, Deepak says, adding that purchase agreements and market access will be closely watched, in addition to the tariffs themselves.

In the week ahead, U.S. inflation figures will be a key consideration, but Deepak says investors should also pay attention to retail sales...

Markets have been in a period of relative calm since the significant moves that followed ‘Liberation Day’, but "I'd be a brave man to predict no volatility", says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's CIO for sustainability. "I do hope the worst is over for now, at least until we approach the end of the 90-day pause at the end of July", Markus says, noting that markets will be looking for progress on trade deals in the meantime.

In the week ahead, Markus says a rate cut is unlikely from the Federal Reserve, though a cut may come...

Developments in U.S. tariff policy suggest that, when markets have a strong reaction, the White House is prepared to change course, says the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting. “Of course, this was denied by Washington, but I would be surprised if they really don’t look at it,” he says, noting that this applies more to bonds than it does to stocks.

In the week ahead, “the number I’m really watching out for on the macro side in the U.S. is, believe it or not, the nonfarm payrolls,” Christian says, adding that th...

Tariff moves from the U.S. administration have continued to hold centre stage, and "it has been a very volatile period,” notes Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. "The baseline of what that means for the macro environment is still to be determined”, Deepak says. “The market is still in a wait-and-watch mode."

Earnings season has gotten started in the U.S., and a policy decision is expected from the European Central Bank in the week ahead. But tariff concerns are likely to hold the limelight for the time being. "I expect t...

The Trump administration has rolled out its global tariffs and markets have slumped in response, but "it's our job to keep calm and invest in a very disciplined way", says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. "It's really important to focus on risk management these days", Dirk says, adding that diversification and potential hedges are hot topics.

Earnings season is coming up, and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting are due in the week ahead, but corporate reports economic data could be drowned out by tariff headlines for now. "The next few weeks at...

In this week’s PERSPECTIVES podcast, we look ahead to “Liberation Day” – the term used by President Donald Trump to describe Wednesday, April 2, when he is expected to make a new major announcement on tariffs.

Deepak Puri, our Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, expects this announcement will focus on reciprocal tariffs, designed to match the import tariffs other countries currently place on U.S. goods. He also discusses sectoral tariffs and secondary tariffs and what they could mean for global markets.

Whatever is announced this week, “markets are going to remain on edge", Deepak predicts...

Rarely does a week go by without tariffs being in the spotlight. In this week’s PERSPECTIVES podcast, we asked Christian Nolting, our Global Chief Investment Officer, what he expects them to mean for investors.

"The uncertainty of tariffs is not helpful for growth," he said, noting that professional investors have very different views, and therefore a range of expectations for tariffs, worldwide. “We expect tariffs at the higher end for Europe, as we have seen with Mexico and Canada,” he added. However, he does see opportunities for negotiations down the road.

Christian also walked us thr...

The private bank is standing by its positive market outlook for the next 12 months, and "it will be an earnings-driven market", says Dr Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. Double-digit earnings growth remains a possibility and, while major U.S. stock indices have recently entered correction territory, Dirk says the U.S. economy ought to "regain some footing" after its recent soft patch.

Meanwhile, a Federal Reserve policy decision is due this week and, even after a recent softening of U.S. inflation figures, Dirk does not expect the central bank will move quickly to bring...

Much of the recent market volatility can be attributed to the wave of on-again-off-again tariff threats from the U.S., which "always result in a big risk-off knee jerk", says Stefanie Holtze-Jen, the Private Bank's APAC CIO. But she notes that while we see China retaliating with tariffs of its own, "it looks very much like they want to negotiate, rather than escalate."

The week ahead “will not be boring”, Stefanie says, as we will receive a wealth of data, including Chinese producer and consumer prices. On the tariff front, she notes that Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S...

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge inched down at the end of last week, but "the main topic remains, for me, inflation", says the Private Bank’s global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting. Prices are still rising more quickly than the central bank would like. Still, "the good news is this came in line with expectations of the market", Christian says.

Meanwhile, Christian considers the reasons that European stock indexes have outperformed their U.S. counterparts this year. And in the week ahead he says he’ll be watching U.S. nonfarm payrolls, the European Central Bank’s...

The stock market's ongoing strength in the face of geopolitical instability "is really driven by the fact that the economy is still quite resilient", says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, pointing to solid labour markets and strong economic growth. "It seems we're in a good spot.”

Earnings reports from the fourth quarter have also provided plenty of reasons for optimism. "Banks are doing well, which is important to providing liquidity to markets”, Deepak says, adding that technology megacaps showed impressive earnings growth. Still, Deepak notes that the 2025 outlook for earnings and re...

A recent uptick in U.S. inflation has lowered expectations for softer Federal Reserve policy ahead – a situation that could continue to support the US dollar, but for other countries could “bring the local currency under pressure”, says Stefanie Holtze-Jen, the Private Bank's APAC CIO. There are “challenges that come from this type of backdrop.”

Stefanie notes that China recorded "robust consumption trends" during the Chinese New Year holiday period, including higher retail sales, services consumption, and travel. She also says that consumer sentiment there is stabilising as international investors have been re-evaluating the country's tech sector following...

A strong fourth-quarter earnings season so far "comes just as the right time, because we have so many things to deal with on the political side and a lot of uncertainty about future economic developments,” says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. “It's more than welcome that we are presented with company results that I would say are quite encouraging.”

A big source of uncertainty however is the new U.S. tariff agenda, Dirk says, because of its halting start and the difficulty of calculating how it may affect company supply chains.

For more i...

Markets had a bumpy week amid competitive shifts in the artificial intelligence sector. But that is not necessarily a bad thing, says the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting. "If we find more efficient solutions, that's better from a productivity growth perspective," Christian says, "but of course, when it starts, it causes volatility in some sectors."

The Bank of England could deliver a rate cut in the week ahead. U.S. non-farm payrolls and eurozone inflation figures are also among the critical reports to watch.

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In this week’s PERSPECTIVES Weekly podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, Deepak Puri, reflects on what has been an historic and eventful past week with the new U.S. president taking office. He also outlines what investors should keep on their radar in the context of U.S. politics over the coming months.

Looking into this week, Deepak provides key insights on the upcoming central bank meetings with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and European Central Bank (ECB) set to meet, and elaborates on what to look out for with the...

In this week’s Perspectives Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen, discusses two elephants in current investment markets: China’s growth and how U.S. tariffs are expected to play out in the Asia region.

Stefanie says Asia’s economies are growing more quickly than developed economies and helping to drive global growth. She provides her analysis of China’s three-pillar approach to economic management, what it means for Chinese equities, and how China is preparing for U.S. tariffs.

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Bond markets have kicked off 2025 with “a significant spike in yields, and this is now firmly on investors' minds,” says Dr Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. “Bonds have to be managed very actively.” The bond volatility has been particularly pronounced in the U.K., but Dirk says that the situation there is probably not as severe as the crisis in 2022.

Meanwhile, earnings season kicks off in earnest this week, with a group of results from major U.S. banks. "Elevated yields could be a nice tail-wind” for the banks, Dirk says, and “let's not forget about buybac...

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver an interest-rate cut this week, but markets may not get as many U.S. rate cuts in 2025 as they anticipate, says the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, Christian Nolting. "We do not expect the Fed to cut massively in 2025,” Christian says.

U.S. retail sales figures will be important to watch in the week ahead, because “It’s a very consumer-oriented economy,” Christian says. Markets will also be on alert for a read on U.S. GDP.

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In Europ...

A somewhat mixed U.S. jobs report has boosted expectations for an interest-rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting of the year, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “Given the fact that the unemployment rate went up, the Fed can easily rationalise another rate cut,” Deepak says.

Historically, December has tended to be a good month for the S&P 500, and Deepak says there’s no reason that this year should be any different. “I would not be surprised if we added on a bit more from now until th...

COP29, this year’s iteration of the UN’s annual climate-action conference, took place in Baku, Azerbaijan, and much of the conversation was about the cost of addressing the crisis. “Let’s be blunt. The simple answer is: A lot,” says the Private Bank’s ESG CIO, Markus Müller, noting that some estimates suggest the world needs to spend $200 trillion between now and 2050.

But there were also points of optimism. "Climate finance has been very resilient in recent years," Markus says, "and in some areas we are making real progress." He also explained why it has been so impor...

Just ahead of Thanksgiving and with the opening of the Christmas markets in some European countries, we're taking a closer look at consumption. "So far, US consumption has been really robust," says Dirk Steffen, our Chief Investment Officer EMEA and Global Chief Investment Strategist, "which is probably also due to the fact that the US labour market is still holding up."

Dirk expects relatively strong consumer activity ending the year. Aside from Black Friday, Cyber Monday and holiday shopping, activity will be further accelerated by an uptick in travel, including in other countries around the globe.

Markets have been on the rise since the U.S. election, a mood that the Private Bank’s Chief Global Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, described as “euphoria” – though he said it may start to temper. “The discussion about austerity is probably gone for the time being,” and that could be inflationary and send longer-term yields higher, Christian says. “We do not expect yields to go massively lower from here.”

Meanwhile, third-quarter earnings season is mostly complete, though there are still some major names left to report. “If companies continue to deliver on the earnings, that could justify higher index level...

Donald Trump secured his victory in the U.S. presidential race, and stocks subsequently jumped. That is in part because of the speed at which the result became clear, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “The elections were a risk event. Elections bring uncertainty, but the memory of 2020 was quite vivid in the investor's psyche,” Deepak says. “The fact that we have a result very quickly has created this relief rally.”

The Federal Reserve also delivered an interest-rate cut, and noted that inflation is now closer to its target level. “The Fed will...

The U.S. election this week sits on a knife’s edge, and it “might have significant importance for sector allocations going forward for the next few years”, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. “The market will price in quite a few things once we get the results.”

But politics aren’t the only matter on the agenda. The Federal Reserve will also make another decision on interest rates, and third-quarter earnings season remains in full gear. We are “coming out on the busiest week for earnings in the U.S., and the results have been quit...

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen discusses widening spreads in U.S. rates, China’s stimulus impact and the growing list of emerging markets joining the BRICS alliance.

Stefanie says U.S. long-term rates are expected to stay higher because of market expectations that deficit spending will continue regardless of the outcome of the election and a Fed that continues with monetary easing as long as inflation allows, reflating the economy. She points to the raft of data coming this week, including the import...

The European Central Bank has delivered interest-rate cuts at its recent consecutive meetings, but the Private Bank’s Chief Global Investment Officer, Christian Nolting, says that does not necessarily mean the bank will ultimately bring down rates massively from their current levels in this cycle. “They need to also watch inflation, which we still think is sticky”, Christian says.

For now, the main topic in markets is the ongoing U.S. earnings season, Christian says. “Favourite sectors, I think no surprise, are technology and communication services, followed by health care. And energy would be expected to be the weak...

Third-quarter earnings season has kicked off in the U.S., and strong economic data from the period could mean that analysts are currently underestimating how strong the results might be, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO.

“The consensus is maybe a touch too conservative when it comes to estimating earnings growth”, Dirk says, though he also notes that with the U.S. election coming up and plenty of geopolitical unrest, earnings won’t be the only thing on investors’ minds.

In the week ahead, the big event in Europe will likely be the next...

In this week’s CIO Weekly Investment Outlook podcast, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer in APAC, Stefanie Holtze-Jen, discusses how the Fed rate cut and expectations on its rate cut cycle has been a game changer for Emerging Asia central banks and assets.

Stefanie discusses China’s potentially largest ever stimulus package, equivalent to 7 trillion Renminbi and up to around 6% of China’s GDP this year. Stefanie argues that China’s new forward guidance is a positive for helping to stabilise markets and win back investor confidence. The CIO also believes the Chinese equities rally still has...

The candidates for vice president in the upcoming U.S. presidential election are set to debate this week, in what may well be the last debate before election day. The event is not likely to shift investor sentiment, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. But he adds a caveat: “It shouldn't be a market moving event unless there are some policy decisions, or policy rhetoric, that comes out of either candidate that could have an impact on certain sectors of the economy”, Deepak says.

The monthly U.S. jobs report is lik...

Dirk Steffen, Chief Investment Officer EMEA and Chief Investment Strategist, outlines what the Fed's recent interest rate cut means for upcoming central bank actions and economic developments.

He argues that recent data points, including relatively low initial jobless claims and robust retail sales, had pointed more towards a 25 bps cut. While the bigger cut by 50 bps was arguably not necessary, it is certainly helping to prevent a recession and facilitates a soft landing.

In the months to come, Dirk expects volatility as a result of the upcoming US elections and incoming macro data. In terms...

Markets are widely expecting the Federal Reserve to kick off its rate-cutting cycle this week. The question is how big a cut it will deliver, because “the market is exactly split” on whether it will be a quarter percentage point or a half percentage point, says the Private Bank’s EMEA CIO Dr. Dirk Steffen. “So it will either way lead to market moves.”

And as for the recent ups and downs in stocks more broadly, “We think volatility is here to stay”, Dirk says. He notes that investors will be paying increasing attention to the U.S. elections o...

Recent U.S. jobs data came in below consensus forecasts, but the Private Bank's Global CIO, Christian Nolting, says that the drop in equities that followed might have had more to do with signs of concern from the Federal Reserve. "The market doesn't like, I should say, if the Fed is a bit concerned”, Christian says, “Hence, we saw a bit negative reaction."

Christian says that a coming interest-rate decision from the European Central Bank will have a lot of focus in the week to come, but investors are also likely to be tuned in to the pres...