PERSPECTIVES Weekly: The Investment podcast

Markets entered a bout of volatility after the Democratic sweep of Congress in the US midterm elections, and uncertainty about what it means for the AI trade and the buildout of data centres is a part of that, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. “We saw quite a bit of rotation,” Christian says.

Much of the political upheaval has been attributed to voter anger around the cost of living, particularly fuel costs, and Christian says he doesn’t expect those prices to moderate soon. “We do forecast energy prices to stay high for quite...

The US midterm election takes centre stage this week, and the outcome will have a big impact on markets for a long time, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “The interesting question isn't simply who wins,” Markus says. “It's what the result ultimately means for fiscal policy, US debt, and then finally the bond market.”

In addition to counting ballots, markets also remain preoccupied with the AI buildout – the spending behind it, and signs that it is bearing fruit. “Financial markets are increasingly focused on one fundament...

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan are all due to make policy decisions, but the ongoing earnings season is still the key focus this week, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. “It's very important that they come in and reassure the market,” Christian says. “If that's not the case, I think we might enter a period where things are getting a bit more volatile.”

Energy prices are also getting plenty of attention, with crude oil climbing above $100 a barrel as the Iran conflict goes on. And though nat...

Markets have been volatile, with both tech shares and bond yields wobbling – and EMEA CIO Dr. Dirk Steffen says there are a lot of reasons behind it, including political uncertainty. "Let’s not forget we’re heading into a period ahead of the midterm elections and the earnings season,” Dirk says. “I think this is a reason the market is a bit more nervous than usual."

The high levels of investments that are going into the AI buildout mean that markets are also increasingly attuned to profitability measures. “All these investments ultimately need to lead to higher revenues and...

A summit of European leaders this week is likely to focus on the EU-China trade relationship, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets. “Europe is becoming more cautious about China. But that's also different from saying that it wants to walk away completely,” Jacky says. “A big part of the tension comes from the trade imbalance. Europe's trade deficit with China is enormous, and European policymakers are increasingly under pressure.”

Meanwhile, elevated crude prices are lingering amid attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf, but Jacky says that consumers are really feeling those high...

Bond yields are up around the world, but maybe “bond rout” isn’t the best way to describe it, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “I would not really say ‘rout’, but a sustained rise”, Markus says, adding that this supports the Private Bank’s long-held belief that interest rates will remain elevated. “Higher for longer is the name of the game.”

In the week ahead, the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting will be closely scrutinised by markets for greater detail on t...

The continued rise in consumer prices will have multiple effects going forward, notes Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, beyond the pressure it places on central-bank policy. “We are in the midst of an inflationary boom, which means that the growth numbers are going to be much higher,” Deepak says. “There is a concern that further policy adjustments are still needed to ensure inflation comes back to the stated target. And there's also a concern that the longer the higher inflation persists, the more challenging it's going to be to bring it down.”

With...

Fixed income has taken the spotlight in financial markets, as yields have jumped just about everywhere — and there are several reasons behind the shift, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer.

“Bonds have been a massive driver for markets, not only on the fixed income side, but also for equities,” Christian says, adding that energy prices, concerns about debt sustainability, and high levels of bond issuance are all supporting the move.

Readings on consumer sentiment in the US and eurozone are due in the week ahead. But Christian points to an expected...

The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are due to make rate decisions, and markets will be watching for confirmation that recent tremors in the bond market haven’t upended policy plans, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets.

“What's interesting is that the markets aren't really obsessing over whether rates move higher this month or next month,” Jacky says. “I think what they're trying to figure is whether central banks are still comfortable with the inflation story.”

A group of economic reports from China will also be...

The Private Bank just held its quarterly exercise in updating its forecasts for markets and economies, and EMEA CIO Dr. Dirk Steffen says that expectations for stocks remain strong.

"The main takeaway from our CIO day was our constructive take longer term on equities, because it's mainly driven by earnings,” Dirk says, though he also notes that “we also focus a lot on risk management because this won't be a straight line up.”

In the week ahead, Dirk says he’s going to be watching for US inflation figures, as well as a coming policy decision...

Looking ahead from the Jackson Hole Symposium, the rate trajectory is the most important question for the remaining months of 2026, says Christian Nolting, Private Bank's Global CIO. "Because we see energy prices still elevated which is unlikely to change substantially and that causes some reaction function for the central banks to fight inflation,” Christian says. “Most central banks are starting to hike, though not massively. That has implications for a lot of governments looking at the longer end of the yield curve, and that longer end is very very important and could cause some market volatility.”

Christian says i...

Yields on long-end U.S. Treasuries have recently climbed to multi-year highs, and it’s a pattern that is being seen around the world, notes Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “This is not just only a U.S. phenomenon”, Deepak says, pointing to falling bond prices and climbing rates in Germany, Japan, the U.K. and other regions. High levels of government debt, central-bank credibility, and inflation concerns are among the factors behind it.

Stock prices have also had their bumps, but they’ve generally been less severe, and Deepak says that...

Geopolitical tensions have continued to dominate headlines in recent weeks, but markets appear to be taking a broader view. In this week's edition of the CIO Weekly Investment Outlook, Christian Nolting, Global Chief Investment Officer at Deutsche Bank Private Bank, discusses why, despite ongoing uncertainty, "it's not all about the Iran situation" for investors.

Christian explores the forces helping to support market sentiment, reflects on what has been a "stellar earnings season" so far, and explains why the full investment picture may be more nuanced than the headlines suggest. The conversation also examines recent developments in the...

Big tech earnings in the US have stolen a lot of headlines, but that should not distract from gains being made in other sectors and regions, says Dr Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank’s EMEA CIO. “The rally this year is not solely based on artificial intelligence and big tech companies. We have also other regions joining the earnings party,” Dirk says. “It’s good to see this broadening out.”

US inflation data is likely to take centre stage in the week ahead, Dirk says, as it will offer “a prelude to something more important we’ll get next week, w...

Stock markets have had some stumbles recently, with selloffs in the technology sector followed by rapid recoveries, but the fundamentals of the AI rally have not changed, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets. “The reality is these stocks have had incredible runs so far this year. So investors are constantly asking themselves whether they've become a little bit too optimistic,” Jacky says. “To me, this feels more like a market that's digesting the gains rather than a market that is losing its way.”

In the week ahead, the US jobs report is likely...

Geopolitical tensions, central bank decisions and key economic data releases are all competing for investors' attention. In this week's episode of PERSPECTIVES, Markus Müller, the Private Bank's Global Head of the CIO Office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability, discusses the renewed Iran conflict, the outlook for inflation and growth, and what investors should watch in the week ahead.

Markus notes that the Chief Investment Office's "main scenario has always been that any ceasefire will be a fragile one", while emphasising that "global fixed income markets and energy prices are still the most sensitive to day-to-day c...

Second-quarter earnings got off to a strong start in the US with solid results from big banks, but now markets will be focused on what the technology hyperscalers have to say about both earnings and their spending plans, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. "We're getting closer to 1 trillion, maybe in a year or so, a trillion dollars that will be spent by a handful of companies in terms of capex and tech investments,” Dirk says. “It will be very important to hear what these companies are telling us about what they're planning to do."

In...

Hostilities flared in the Middle East last week, and oil prices took note, but not to the degree that they did when the war began, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “The clear transmission mechanism of those hostilities tends to be first oil and then it moves into the rates market,” Deepak says. “I think we need to live with this for some time to come.”

Attention is likely to shift to corporate results as second-quarter reports start to roll in, starting this week with major US banks. “Earnings have been the bri...

The first half of 2026 saw markets power through a great deal of geopolitical uncertainty, and now earnings will be important to watch as the second half gets under way, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. “We are positive for the markets because we think there's still some room to go for corporate earnings,” Christian says, noting that expectations for results are still quite high.

Expectations for rate increases from the Federal Reserve have softened a bit since last week’s monthly jobs report, which showed slower-than-expected hiring during the month of June. In the w...