PERSPECTIVES Weekly: The Investment podcast

The Private Bank just held its quarterly exercise in updating its forecasts for markets and economies, and EMEA CIO Dr. Dirk Steffen says that expectations for stocks remain strong.

"The main takeaway from our CIO day was our constructive take longer term on equities, because it's mainly driven by earnings,” Dirk says, though he also notes that “we also focus a lot on risk management because this won't be a straight line up.”

In the week ahead, Dirk says he’s going to be watching for US inflation figures, as well as a coming policy decision...

Looking ahead from the Jackson Hole Symposium, the rate trajectory is the most important question for the remaining months of 2026, says Christian Nolting, Private Bank's Global CIO. "Because we see energy prices still elevated which is unlikely to change substantially and that causes some reaction function for the central banks to fight inflation,” Christian says. “Most central banks are starting to hike, though not massively. That has implications for a lot of governments looking at the longer end of the yield curve, and that longer end is very very important and could cause some market volatility.”

Christian says i...

Yields on long-end U.S. Treasuries have recently climbed to multi-year highs, and it’s a pattern that is being seen around the world, notes Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “This is not just only a U.S. phenomenon”, Deepak says, pointing to falling bond prices and climbing rates in Germany, Japan, the U.K. and other regions. High levels of government debt, central-bank credibility, and inflation concerns are among the factors behind it.

Stock prices have also had their bumps, but they’ve generally been less severe, and Deepak says that...

Geopolitical tensions have continued to dominate headlines in recent weeks, but markets appear to be taking a broader view. In this week's edition of the CIO Weekly Investment Outlook, Christian Nolting, Global Chief Investment Officer at Deutsche Bank Private Bank, discusses why, despite ongoing uncertainty, "it's not all about the Iran situation" for investors.

Christian explores the forces helping to support market sentiment, reflects on what has been a "stellar earnings season" so far, and explains why the full investment picture may be more nuanced than the headlines suggest. The conversation also examines recent developments in the...

Big tech earnings in the US have stolen a lot of headlines, but that should not distract from gains being made in other sectors and regions, says Dr Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank’s EMEA CIO. “The rally this year is not solely based on artificial intelligence and big tech companies. We have also other regions joining the earnings party,” Dirk says. “It’s good to see this broadening out.”

US inflation data is likely to take centre stage in the week ahead, Dirk says, as it will offer “a prelude to something more important we’ll get next week, w...

Stock markets have had some stumbles recently, with selloffs in the technology sector followed by rapid recoveries, but the fundamentals of the AI rally have not changed, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets. “The reality is these stocks have had incredible runs so far this year. So investors are constantly asking themselves whether they've become a little bit too optimistic,” Jacky says. “To me, this feels more like a market that's digesting the gains rather than a market that is losing its way.”

In the week ahead, the US jobs report is likely...

Geopolitical tensions, central bank decisions and key economic data releases are all competing for investors' attention. In this week's episode of PERSPECTIVES, Markus Müller, the Private Bank's Global Head of the CIO Office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability, discusses the renewed Iran conflict, the outlook for inflation and growth, and what investors should watch in the week ahead.

Markus notes that the Chief Investment Office's "main scenario has always been that any ceasefire will be a fragile one", while emphasising that "global fixed income markets and energy prices are still the most sensitive to day-to-day c...

Second-quarter earnings got off to a strong start in the US with solid results from big banks, but now markets will be focused on what the technology hyperscalers have to say about both earnings and their spending plans, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. "We're getting closer to 1 trillion, maybe in a year or so, a trillion dollars that will be spent by a handful of companies in terms of capex and tech investments,” Dirk says. “It will be very important to hear what these companies are telling us about what they're planning to do."

In...

Hostilities flared in the Middle East last week, and oil prices took note, but not to the degree that they did when the war began, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “The clear transmission mechanism of those hostilities tends to be first oil and then it moves into the rates market,” Deepak says. “I think we need to live with this for some time to come.”

Attention is likely to shift to corporate results as second-quarter reports start to roll in, starting this week with major US banks. “Earnings have been the bri...

The first half of 2026 saw markets power through a great deal of geopolitical uncertainty, and now earnings will be important to watch as the second half gets under way, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. “We are positive for the markets because we think there's still some room to go for corporate earnings,” Christian says, noting that expectations for results are still quite high.

Expectations for rate increases from the Federal Reserve have softened a bit since last week’s monthly jobs report, which showed slower-than-expected hiring during the month of June. In the w...

Uncertainty around the ultimate impact of AI on various business models has led to a degree of uneven stock performance, but there are certain sectors that could lead, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “We remain bullish on technology, communication services, industrials, materials, and healthcare.”

There has been some complacency in energy markets since peace negotiations began between the US and Iran, Deepak argues, noting the need for damaged infrastructure to be repaired before oil flows can resume earlier levels. In the week ahead, “I think the focus will be squarely...

A relief rally followed the US-Iran preliminary peace deal, as “the agreement provides a clear relief for global energy markets”, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets – though he notes that any stumbles in the peace process “could quickly reverse the recent decline in oil prices and also bring volatility back in the global markets.”

Meanwhile, the first Federal Reserve policy decision under Chairman Kevin Warsh revealed a more hawkish position in light of recent inflation concerns. “While the Fed continues to signal a gradual easing path further out, I think the expected timin...

Record-topping IPOs in the technology sector do not necessarily mean it is time to radically alter portfolios, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets. "I would be a bit cautious about assuming a mechanical rotation out of existing technology leaders. These companies remain highly cash generative and also central to index construction,” Jacky says. “I think any shift is more likely to be gradual and selective rather than an unexpected and very sudden move.”

And while energy prices have remained elevated amid the Iran war, weaker demand from China has kept the price sh...

Markets are expecting the European Central Bank to lift interest rates this week, but rates may still have higher to go, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “The inflation pressures are real, as we can see in the data, and not just in Europe”, Markus says, adding that the US central bank is less likely to raise rates, but potential rate cuts could be pushed out further into the future.

Stocks, meanwhile, should continue to rise, so long as inflationary forces remain reasonably controlled, Markus says...

In this week's podcast, Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, comments on how markets have endured a great deal of uncertainty around the Middle East conflict without becoming overly reactive. “I think the really good news is that the markets have reacted in a very rational way,” he says, noting that interest-rate expectations are still shifting as a result. “Even if we see the Strait of Hormuz opening up, we expect the ECB will probably still hike rates on June 11."

The rate outlook is closely tied to inflation forecasts, for both central banks and cons...

Stock markets and bond markets are being swayed by different forces to a considerable degree, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “For equity markets, AI is the main story. For bond markets, it’s what’s happening to energy prices.” The technology sector is likely to continue its leadership of equity markets, Deepak says, noting that AI infrastructure spending is having outsized benefits for data centres and other elements of that ecosystem. Bond markets however are contending with the energy price shock of the Iran war and its feed-through effects on inflation and centra...

First-quarter earnings results are already drifting into the rear-view mirror, and that is likely to put more focus on geopolitics and economic performance, says emerging markets CIO Dr. Jacky Tang. “From a risk sentiment perspective, markets are less focused on headlines right now, but more on whether geopolitical risks remain contained,” Jacky says, noting that with crude trading above $100 a barrel, “there is already a risk premium priced in.”

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz will remain an important consideration, though markets will also be watching for any follow-up activity from the recent meeting between US Presi...

The Private Bank’s CIO team has named its base case scenario for the Middle East conflict a "fragile ceasefire", says emerging markets CIO Dr. Jacky Tang. "We expect the majority of oil and gas flows to normalise by the end of the second quarter, although with recurring disruptions and heightened geopolitical risk premiums”, Jacky says. “In this scenario, oil prices could likely ease, while volatility remains structurally elevated.”

In the coming week, Jacky says that US inflation figures will be of particular importance, as markets look for evidence that the jump in energy prices is spreading to other...

The S&P 500 in April had its strongest showing since the Covid vaccine breakthrough, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. "Both from a macro and corporate earnings perspective, things look great," Deepak says, noting that a lot of institutional investors shifted to more bullish positions during the month.

First-quarter US GDP data also showed strength, but "what really matters to the market is what was driving that growth, and that's where it is good news", Deepak says, noting that business spending surged in the quarter in an extension of the AI...