PERSPECTIVES Weekly: The Investment podcast

Strong results from major technology hyperscalers recently did not make much of an impression on stock markets, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO. "We believe there's still long-term confidence in the big technology platforms, particularly around AI and cloud. But the scale of investment required to sustain that leadership has risen sharply", Jacky says. “The mood, I would say, is constructive but disciplined, with markets looking for clearer evidence that today's investment cycle delivers durable returns.”

As for this week’s important economic data, “U.S. non-farm payrolls sit at the top of the list...

The US Supreme Court ruled that a broad swath of President Trump’s tariffs are illegal, but there is still much to sort out after the decision, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas.

“It's not the time to really change your asset allocation or portfolio construction, because I feel that a lot of this was already sort of baked into the market reaction,” Deepak says. “I don't think last Friday's decision really rules out or addresses the issue of potential refunds, which is what the market really wants more clarity on. But if...

Markus Müller, the Private Bank’s Head of the CIO Office and CIO for Sustainability, joins this week’s PERSPECTIVES Weekly Podcast to highlight the forces shaping markets during Chinese New Year.

Markus notes that while near‑term data releases will attract attention, the more important focus is China’s ongoing structural transition. As he puts it, “it isn’t true that China is stagnating – it’s still transforming very fast.” He points to the country’s rapid expansion in areas like clean energy as evidence of this broader shift.

The episode also looks at AI-driven market v...

Dr. Jacky Tang, Deutsche Bank Private Bank’s CIO for Emerging Markets, breaks down the key forces shaping Asia’s market outlook.

On Japan's weekend election, Jacky notes that “A victory for the LDP would point to broad policy continuity, with fiscal support and gradual BOJ normalisation still in place.”

He explains that such stability would support higher wages and investment, improving corporate profitability and contributing to a steeper yield curve that could benefit the banking sector.

The episode also explores upcoming CPI releases from China, India and the US, and why Asia’s inflatio...

The dollar has been trading around multi-year lows against its peers, but the downward trend may not last, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO, in his first appearance on the Perspectives podcast. "While a weak US dollar favours Asian equities and uplifts gold prices, as we can see from the recent price action, we need to also look at the US macro picture." He said he expects the dollar to stabilise after a period of being rocked by geopolitical developments.

Corporate earnings season is still in its early stages, but some important technology...

Markets have exhibited some sensitivity to geopolitical concerns amid debates over the status of Greenland, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, though he also notes that those concerns can be somewhat transient. 

“Usually markets tend to shrug these off,” Deepak says, “because if they’re not instrumental in changing the macro backdrop, markets say ‘Okay, nothing’s changing.’” He noted that the tariff threats from the US had been a particular concern, so there was some relief when the White House changed course.

The Federal Reserve will be in focus this week...

S&P 500 earnings season for the 4th quarter has just gotten started, but early results have been strong, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. “The market is expecting roughly 7% growth this year, which seems a lot, but it's less than last year. And the whisper news is obviously it could be a bit better”, Christian says. “From that perspective, we don't need to change at this point in time our investment strategy.”

On the commodities side, gold prices have been climbing for quite some time, but Christian says that shouldn’t necessarily herald a shi...

Markets started the year from a position of strength despite some geopolitical instability, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. Oil prices shuddered after the US military operation in Venezuela, but “one of our topics for this year is discipline instead of drama”, Christian says. “And from that perspective, we don't need to change at this point in time our investment strategy.”

The bond market has had a busy start to the year, and Christian says this is to be expected as companies often wait until January to address their funding needs. “We do still lik...

In our final episode of 2025, Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, sounds an optimistic note for markets in the New Year. “We’ve now seen three very good years” in markets, Christian says. “I think in ‘26, there might be some more volatility coming up. But overall, I would say the macroeconomic backdrop is a positive one.”

The Federal Reserve just delivered a rate cut, and the market is expecting more in 2026, Christian says. But in the week ahead, markets will be alert to the delayed US jobs data. The official numbers “will be very important f...

The US dollar has been weakening against its peers lately, “but when you look for the last five years, the dollar is still positive”, notes Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. And the dollar’s recent slip could be a reason that stocks have continued to climb. “The dollar weakness does give a boost to the S&P 500 earnings because on an aggregate basis, around 35% of earnings for S&P 500 companies are coming from the overseas markets.”

In the week ahead, “all eyes are going to be on the Fed”, Deepak says, pointing t...

Stocks have found their footing after a recent period of softness, and that strength could continue through 2026, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank’s head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “Positive year-end seasonality could still be offset by a temporary return of worries around AI market concentration, and also US labour market softness”, Markus says. “But looking across a 12-month horizon, the market is still positive.”

Markus was also present at COP30, the latest UN conference on climate change, and he said the developments there were important for investors. “The lack of consensus...

The Private Bank’s Chief Investment Office just held its quarterly “CIO Day” gathering to set its 12-month forecasts, and it included some interesting shifts to its outlook, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “The key takeaway is that the worst of the trade war is behind us as we enter 2026,” Deepak says, adding that recent market volatility has not changed its views on AI: “We still believe the AI dominance will continue and have a very positive tailwind from the earnings side for 2026. So we upgraded our S&P target.”

Central banks...

Scepticism in the market can be a healthy sign, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer – and that’s currently in evidence in the mood around lofty tech valuations. “There's a bit of discussion in the market about AI. Is it a bubble or not?”, Christian said. “And from that perspective, I think it's quite healthy if we also see the market not always going up in a straight line.”

And importantly, analysts will soon have access to data that was unavailable to markets during the US government shutdown. US labour market data and inflation...

For a while it seemed like all the earnings growth was coming from a short list of major tech firms, but now that has begun to change, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. "The lead in terms of earnings growth by these mega caps is actually narrowing somewhat ", Dirk says. “This is a positive and healthy sign for the stock market in our view.”

But that is not a reason to be excessively exuberant, Dirk says. “It's important not to get carried away by these very solid numbers,” though he acknowledges that results so far have...

Stock markets are soaring amid AI enthusiasm, but that does not necessarily mean we are in bubble territory, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank’s head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “The difference now is the foundation. Equities are showing strong earnings, robust cash flows and disciplined balance sheets. That's not typical bubble behaviour,” Markus says, though he also points to the need for careful risk management. “Overinvestment is a risk. Global data centre spending surged.”

This tension is on display in the current U.S. earnings season, Markus says. “Fundamentals are strong, b...

In a central bank triple-header, we’ll see announcements from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan in the week ahead. And while the banks share similar aims, Markus Müller, Chief Investment Officer Sustainability & Global Head of the Chief Investment Office for Deutsche Bank’s Private Bank, describes the different situations facing central bankers as being like "three captains steering ships through different waters – some choppy, some calm, some foggy”.

Switching to sustainability and COP30 in Belem, Brazil, next month, Markus expects a more reflective mood at what is being called the 'nature COP'. Fragile g...

US earnings season got started with some strong results from big banks, but markets have also been focused on emerging risks for some regional banks, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “There have been two big delinquencies in recent days in the US”, Deepak says, noting that they “have had some exposure to the regional banking sector.”

Bond markets meanwhile have been coming under some stress in the high-yield space, Deepak says. “The default rate is really important to see, especially for those companies that are really on the fringe of what I wo...

Just as people should get routine screenings from their doctors, the upcoming earnings season will provide a valuable “health check for the market,” says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. Analysts have recently cut their earnings forecasts, and Christian says markets aren’t necessarily expecting particularly strong results – but that means “the companies really do need to deliver.”

And even with gold trading near historic highs, Christian says that any dips in the price might be regarded as buying opportunities. “Although the dollar has been strengthening recently, we still see investors including central banks buying gold...

The US government shutdown meant that the usual monthly Jobs Report did not arrive, but markets took it in stride, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “Government shutdowns are usually considered non-events for financial markets, primarily because they tend not to change the underlying macro backdrop,” Deepak says. “We would caution investors not to make dramatic moves within their long-term portfolios based on what's happening day-to-day in D.C.”

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting are due, and “the focus is really going to be what was the debate lik...

US legislators are nearing a deadline on a budget agreement, and a government shutdown is possible this week, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. But he also says that any negative movements in markets would likely be both minor and temporary, should that come to pass. "That would rather be a buying opportunity in the market," Christian said.

Meanwhile, recent inflation data in the US showed that price rises remain above the Federal Reserve’s target. “It just confirms our view: Inflation stays higher for quite some time,” Christian said. “It limits a bit the...

The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates last week was really “a risk management tool” in the face of softer economic data, including a weaker job market, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “But it was not all about the Fed last week”, Deepak says, pointing to policy decisions in the U.K., Japan, and Canada. “A lot to digest from the global central banks last week.”

Looking ahead, a shutdown of the US government remains a possibility, while lawmakers remain divided on a budget that could pass a Senate filibuste...

Markets are anticipating a policy shift this week from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to deliver the first of several rate cuts that could be spread out over the next year, says Dr Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank’s EMEA CIO. “It looks like the US central bank is now pondering the labour market much more,” Dirk says, pointing to weak jobs data to explain why the Fed might look beyond a recent uptick in consumer prices.

“The Fed will probably deliver more cuts, and the ECB is almost done,” Dirk says. But he does not expect cur...

Interest rates and the US dollar may be heading further down after last week’s US jobs report, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “It was a weak report and the details raise more questions right now”, Markus says, noting that the revision for June was also negative.

Meanwhile, US courts have raised questions about the legality of White House tariff policy, but Markus says that markets are taking those questions in stride, and appear to expect a degree of stability while keeping an eye out for...

Recent political developments in both the US and France sparked jitters in global markets. However, amid this uncertainty, the signals coming out of Jackson Hole seem clear. “Our view would be that the Fed is cutting rates at the next meeting on the 17th of September,” says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. “The market is already forecasting four to five rate cuts until the end of 2026. The question is: will there be even more?”

Christian discusses the confidence vote called by France’s Prime Minister Bayrou and its impact on bond markets, warning that...

While the summer break brings its usual trading slowdown and bond markets in the US have been relatively calm, European bond markets have kept moving. German Bund yields continue to climb and are bringing bonds from across the Eurozone with them, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for Europe, Middle East and Africa. “Yields are going up, the market is normalising and this is spilling over into the Eurozone market.”  

Dirk discusses the summer lull before markets head “back to school” and where we might expect to see fresh activity in September. He also hig...

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a rate cut in September, but that doesn’t mean inflation concerns have gone away, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. "If consumer price inflation goes higher, which we expect, that could cause some volatility", Christian says, noting that companies have so far been absorbing the impact of tariffs. "Companies are not ready yet to put some costs from the tariffs directly to the consumer, which would be kind of normal behaviour. You do it over time."

Economic data to watch in the week ahead will...

The latest waves of tariffs were largely shrugged off by stock markets around the world, but that doesn’t mean risks aren’t accumulating behind the scenes, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO.

“It's amazing to see the market being so relaxed about these developments, because we think they pose significant economic headwinds to at least certain sectors”, Dirk says. Still, he also thinks it is important to stay invested in stocks. “If you look a bit more medium term, it's probably worth it to stay invested.”

"It's fair to characterise the US economy...