PERSPECTIVES Weekly: The Investment podcast

The first half of 2026 saw markets power through a great deal of geopolitical uncertainty, and now earnings will be important to watch as the second half gets under way, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. “We are positive for the markets because we think there's still some room to go for corporate earnings,” Christian says, noting that expectations for results are still quite high.

Expectations for rate increases from the Federal Reserve have softened a bit since last week’s monthly jobs report, which showed slower-than-expected hiring during the month of June. In the w...

Uncertainty around the ultimate impact of AI on various business models has led to a degree of uneven stock performance, but there are certain sectors that could lead, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “We remain bullish on technology, communication services, industrials, materials, and healthcare.”

There has been some complacency in energy markets since peace negotiations began between the US and Iran, Deepak argues, noting the need for damaged infrastructure to be repaired before oil flows can resume earlier levels. In the week ahead, “I think the focus will be squarely...

A relief rally followed the US-Iran preliminary peace deal, as “the agreement provides a clear relief for global energy markets”, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets – though he notes that any stumbles in the peace process “could quickly reverse the recent decline in oil prices and also bring volatility back in the global markets.”

Meanwhile, the first Federal Reserve policy decision under Chairman Kevin Warsh revealed a more hawkish position in light of recent inflation concerns. “While the Fed continues to signal a gradual easing path further out, I think the expected timin...

Record-topping IPOs in the technology sector do not necessarily mean it is time to radically alter portfolios, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s CIO for emerging markets. "I would be a bit cautious about assuming a mechanical rotation out of existing technology leaders. These companies remain highly cash generative and also central to index construction,” Jacky says. “I think any shift is more likely to be gradual and selective rather than an unexpected and very sudden move.”

And while energy prices have remained elevated amid the Iran war, weaker demand from China has kept the price sh...

Markets are expecting the European Central Bank to lift interest rates this week, but rates may still have higher to go, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “The inflation pressures are real, as we can see in the data, and not just in Europe”, Markus says, adding that the US central bank is less likely to raise rates, but potential rate cuts could be pushed out further into the future.

Stocks, meanwhile, should continue to rise, so long as inflationary forces remain reasonably controlled, Markus says...

In this week's podcast, Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer, comments on how markets have endured a great deal of uncertainty around the Middle East conflict without becoming overly reactive. “I think the really good news is that the markets have reacted in a very rational way,” he says, noting that interest-rate expectations are still shifting as a result. “Even if we see the Strait of Hormuz opening up, we expect the ECB will probably still hike rates on June 11."

The rate outlook is closely tied to inflation forecasts, for both central banks and cons...

Stock markets and bond markets are being swayed by different forces to a considerable degree, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “For equity markets, AI is the main story. For bond markets, it’s what’s happening to energy prices.” The technology sector is likely to continue its leadership of equity markets, Deepak says, noting that AI infrastructure spending is having outsized benefits for data centres and other elements of that ecosystem. Bond markets however are contending with the energy price shock of the Iran war and its feed-through effects on inflation and centra...

First-quarter earnings results are already drifting into the rear-view mirror, and that is likely to put more focus on geopolitics and economic performance, says emerging markets CIO Dr. Jacky Tang. “From a risk sentiment perspective, markets are less focused on headlines right now, but more on whether geopolitical risks remain contained,” Jacky says, noting that with crude trading above $100 a barrel, “there is already a risk premium priced in.”

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz will remain an important consideration, though markets will also be watching for any follow-up activity from the recent meeting between US Presi...

The Private Bank’s CIO team has named its base case scenario for the Middle East conflict a "fragile ceasefire", says emerging markets CIO Dr. Jacky Tang. "We expect the majority of oil and gas flows to normalise by the end of the second quarter, although with recurring disruptions and heightened geopolitical risk premiums”, Jacky says. “In this scenario, oil prices could likely ease, while volatility remains structurally elevated.”

In the coming week, Jacky says that US inflation figures will be of particular importance, as markets look for evidence that the jump in energy prices is spreading to other...

The S&P 500 in April had its strongest showing since the Covid vaccine breakthrough, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. "Both from a macro and corporate earnings perspective, things look great," Deepak says, noting that a lot of institutional investors shifted to more bullish positions during the month.

First-quarter US GDP data also showed strength, but "what really matters to the market is what was driving that growth, and that's where it is good news", Deepak says, noting that business spending surged in the quarter in an extension of the AI...

The first wave of earnings reports suggest that companies do not expect the Middle East conflict to linger, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. "Companies are saying that they are impacted, but the outlook is that this might not take forever," Christian says. "The bar is still quite high for companies to deliver."

Meanwhile, none of the big central banks are expected to adjust interest rates this week, with decisions due from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. But markets are beginning to...

Earnings season is underway in the US, and the focus will shift this week from financial services to big technology companies, notes Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. Earnings expectations are high, and that “makes disappointment possible, so some caution is wise”, Markus says, but that is “unlikely to disrupt the underlying positive sentiment."

Markets continue to move on headlines around the Iran conflict, but even a workable peace solution might not lead to an immediate normalisation of trading activity. “It will take a long time to get ba...

Markets bounced higher when the Iran ceasefire took place, but the situation remains uncertain, and many assets are likely to remain volatile, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO. "What we are probably getting here is a fragile stabilisation, not a clean resolution”, Jacky says. “So even if the ceasefire holds on paper, markets will still want proof that things are working in practice.” He says oil prices are likely to remain above pre-conflict levels until markets see practical evidence that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, in the form of things like tanker traffic and insura...

Oil prices will remain volatile as long as the outcome of the Middle East conflict is unclear, says Dr Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s emerging markets CIO. “The best way to frame oil right now is that we are in a market dominated by headlines, but not by conviction”, Jacky says. “Our sense is that oil is still carrying a meaningful geopolitical premium, and the market is not prepared to take that premium out unless they see something more than a proposal on paper.”

The fallout from the conflict will also likely extend to assets beyond energy. “F...

Energy prices have continued to jump, but that might not be a lasting effect of the Middle East conflict – if the fighting doesn’t spread, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “A prolonged disruption of oil supply from the Gulf remains unlikely as historically such blockades are difficult to sustain”, Markus says. “Energy markets could swing on any headline, but at the same time we’re mindful that geopolitical shocks historically tend to cause short-lived market turbulence.”

A series of policy decisions from central banks last week meanw...