PERSPECTIVES Weekly: The Investment podcast

The Private Bank’s CIO team has named its base case scenario for the Middle East conflict a "fragile ceasefire", says emerging markets CIO Dr. Jacky Tang. "We expect the majority of oil and gas flows to normalise by the end of the second quarter, although with recurring disruptions and heightened geopolitical risk premiums”, Jacky says. “In this scenario, oil prices could likely ease, while volatility remains structurally elevated.”

In the coming week, Jacky says that US inflation figures will be of particular importance, as markets look for evidence that the jump in energy prices is spreading to other...

The S&P 500 in April had its strongest showing since the Covid vaccine breakthrough, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. "Both from a macro and corporate earnings perspective, things look great," Deepak says, noting that a lot of institutional investors shifted to more bullish positions during the month.

First-quarter US GDP data also showed strength, but "what really matters to the market is what was driving that growth, and that's where it is good news", Deepak says, noting that business spending surged in the quarter in an extension of the AI...

The first wave of earnings reports suggest that companies do not expect the Middle East conflict to linger, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. "Companies are saying that they are impacted, but the outlook is that this might not take forever," Christian says. "The bar is still quite high for companies to deliver."

Meanwhile, none of the big central banks are expected to adjust interest rates this week, with decisions due from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. But markets are beginning to...

Earnings season is underway in the US, and the focus will shift this week from financial services to big technology companies, notes Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. Earnings expectations are high, and that “makes disappointment possible, so some caution is wise”, Markus says, but that is “unlikely to disrupt the underlying positive sentiment."

Markets continue to move on headlines around the Iran conflict, but even a workable peace solution might not lead to an immediate normalisation of trading activity. “It will take a long time to get ba...

Markets bounced higher when the Iran ceasefire took place, but the situation remains uncertain, and many assets are likely to remain volatile, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO. "What we are probably getting here is a fragile stabilisation, not a clean resolution”, Jacky says. “So even if the ceasefire holds on paper, markets will still want proof that things are working in practice.” He says oil prices are likely to remain above pre-conflict levels until markets see practical evidence that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, in the form of things like tanker traffic and insura...

Oil prices will remain volatile as long as the outcome of the Middle East conflict is unclear, says Dr Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s emerging markets CIO. “The best way to frame oil right now is that we are in a market dominated by headlines, but not by conviction”, Jacky says. “Our sense is that oil is still carrying a meaningful geopolitical premium, and the market is not prepared to take that premium out unless they see something more than a proposal on paper.”

The fallout from the conflict will also likely extend to assets beyond energy. “F...

Energy prices have continued to jump, but that might not be a lasting effect of the Middle East conflict – if the fighting doesn’t spread, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “A prolonged disruption of oil supply from the Gulf remains unlikely as historically such blockades are difficult to sustain”, Markus says. “Energy markets could swing on any headline, but at the same time we’re mindful that geopolitical shocks historically tend to cause short-lived market turbulence.”

A series of policy decisions from central banks last week meanw...

Markets remain focused on the Middle East, and there are risks that the dislocations in energy prices could linger even if the fighting soon cools, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “The oil disruption actually may be much longer with the markets than the physical conflict", Deepak says, noting that oil transport has been a major concern, but that production facilities in the region have also been harmed.

The inflationary pressures of energy prices are likely to affect central banks as well, Deepak says, with decisions due this week from the...

The week ahead will include a wealth of economic data, though most of that could be drowned out by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO.

"The Middle East will remain the dominant narrative driver for day-to-day price action, but this week's economic data provides key cross-checks on whether we are facing a pure inflation shock, a growth shock, or both," Jacky says.

He also notes that history has shown that the impacts of even major conflicts on markets tend to be fleeting. “Geopolitical events ha...

Strong results from major technology hyperscalers recently did not make much of an impression on stock markets, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO. "We believe there's still long-term confidence in the big technology platforms, particularly around AI and cloud. But the scale of investment required to sustain that leadership has risen sharply", Jacky says. “The mood, I would say, is constructive but disciplined, with markets looking for clearer evidence that today's investment cycle delivers durable returns.”

As for this week’s important economic data, “U.S. non-farm payrolls sit at the top of the list...

The US Supreme Court ruled that a broad swath of President Trump’s tariffs are illegal, but there is still much to sort out after the decision, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas.

“It's not the time to really change your asset allocation or portfolio construction, because I feel that a lot of this was already sort of baked into the market reaction,” Deepak says. “I don't think last Friday's decision really rules out or addresses the issue of potential refunds, which is what the market really wants more clarity on. But if...

Markus Müller, the Private Bank’s Head of the CIO Office and CIO for Sustainability, joins this week’s PERSPECTIVES Weekly Podcast to highlight the forces shaping markets during Chinese New Year.

Markus notes that while near‑term data releases will attract attention, the more important focus is China’s ongoing structural transition. As he puts it, “it isn’t true that China is stagnating – it’s still transforming very fast.” He points to the country’s rapid expansion in areas like clean energy as evidence of this broader shift.

The episode also looks at AI-driven market v...

Dr. Jacky Tang, Deutsche Bank Private Bank’s CIO for Emerging Markets, breaks down the key forces shaping Asia’s market outlook.

On Japan's weekend election, Jacky notes that “A victory for the LDP would point to broad policy continuity, with fiscal support and gradual BOJ normalisation still in place.”

He explains that such stability would support higher wages and investment, improving corporate profitability and contributing to a steeper yield curve that could benefit the banking sector.

The episode also explores upcoming CPI releases from China, India and the US, and why Asia’s inflatio...

The dollar has been trading around multi-year lows against its peers, but the downward trend may not last, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO, in his first appearance on the Perspectives podcast. "While a weak US dollar favours Asian equities and uplifts gold prices, as we can see from the recent price action, we need to also look at the US macro picture." He said he expects the dollar to stabilise after a period of being rocked by geopolitical developments.

Corporate earnings season is still in its early stages, but some important technology...

Markets have exhibited some sensitivity to geopolitical concerns amid debates over the status of Greenland, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, though he also notes that those concerns can be somewhat transient. 

“Usually markets tend to shrug these off,” Deepak says, “because if they’re not instrumental in changing the macro backdrop, markets say ‘Okay, nothing’s changing.’” He noted that the tariff threats from the US had been a particular concern, so there was some relief when the White House changed course.

The Federal Reserve will be in focus this week...

S&P 500 earnings season for the 4th quarter has just gotten started, but early results have been strong, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. “The market is expecting roughly 7% growth this year, which seems a lot, but it's less than last year. And the whisper news is obviously it could be a bit better”, Christian says. “From that perspective, we don't need to change at this point in time our investment strategy.”

On the commodities side, gold prices have been climbing for quite some time, but Christian says that shouldn’t necessarily herald a shi...

Markets started the year from a position of strength despite some geopolitical instability, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. Oil prices shuddered after the US military operation in Venezuela, but “one of our topics for this year is discipline instead of drama”, Christian says. “And from that perspective, we don't need to change at this point in time our investment strategy.”

The bond market has had a busy start to the year, and Christian says this is to be expected as companies often wait until January to address their funding needs. “We do still lik...