Eurodollar University
Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.
Banks Might Not Survive This...
If you want to delve into the deep background of how everything works, check it out here.
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#oil #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #creditcrunch #bankcrisis
Yesterday, we compared today to 1990 from the perspective of an oil price shock. Today, the similarities in the credit environments. What we find out is first that credit matters and, second, the Fed and its models don't actually model credit. If this seems like a pretty big omission especially in light of the whole dot fiasco, it just m...
WARNING! Another Economic Time Bomb Just Exploded
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#oil #recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar
The FOMC concluded its meeting today and all eyes were on the dots when they should be scanning the oil patch. Surging crude - strictly as a supply matter - isn't inflationary but recessionary with a possibility of contributing some deflationary pressures, too. History is conclusive on the matter and recent data is all on that side, too.
E...
Will Bitcoin Replace the Dollar
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#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #bitcoin #crypto
The breakdown in the eurodollar system all the way back in August 2007 has left the door wide open for competing monetary arrangements. Bitcoin is one of the most-established challengers yet isn't necessarily making as much headway after nearly a decade and a half (other than price). It isn't about dethroning the dollar, instead replacing the eurodollar. What BTC needs to do to b...
BREAKING: You Won't Believe China's New Data
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#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #china #xijingping #politicalnews #cny
Is China back on track? According to many maybe most it is. Ignore all that and instead pay close attention to yuan. Authorities have been compelled to up their efforts to stabilize CNY and still the exchange value has dropped back to 7.30 to the dollar anyway. That's not a sign for the start of the Chinese comeback. On the contrary...
Well Sh*t... It's Officially the Worst EVER!
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#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #recession #inflation #bonds #jeffsnider #inversion
Yield curve inversion is now the longest-lasting on record. Though many will be quick to claim this means it has been wrong, the market being so stubborn is instead a strong warning not to be so complacent. Not only is the global economy questionable, there are alarming signs coming up from key places, t...
The European effect
Shocking Bond Reactions After CPI Report
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#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #recession #airlines #cpi #inflation #bonds #jeffsnider
Market reactions reacted to the CPI (and other recent developments) by pretty much doing nothing. That in itself was a vote on how inflationary consumer prices are being. A good example of why comes from the latest results for an important industry suffering both ends of the current environment - costs going up but being unable to pass t...
WARNING: The Banking Crisis Is NOT Over
If you want to delve into the deep background of how everything works, check it out here.
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#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #consumer #recession #banks #regionalbanks #bankstocks
What banking crisis? The one from just a few months back might as well has been decades ago as far as most people today are concerned. But there is a lot happening in and around the banking sector as key markets price growing trouble and the possibility for much more.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bl...
The Consumer is Now Worse Than the Great Depression
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If you want to delve into the deep background of how everything works, check it out here
#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #consumer #recession
Retailers in the US are becoming increasingly nervous and for good reason. Consumers are showing more and stronger signs of running out of spending power. Last year it was hefty price increases this year a combination of headwinds. One of those is flashing a steady and sharp recession signal.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg: The Mighty American Consumer I...
The U.S Is In SERIOUS Trouble
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Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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THE EPISODES
YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
...
China's downfall
The Mysterious Book of the Federal Reserve
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"If you want to delve into the deep background of how everything works, check it out here."
#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #recession
You can often tell what is going to happen by what policymakers don't want to talk about - or don't want you to talk about. The history of the Fed changing the Red Book's color reveals its gimmick. Decoding the words contained inside gives us sense of what real economy participants might actually be worried about whether officials want them to or not.
They Really Did it
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"If you want to delve into the deep background of how everything works, check it out here."
#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #oil
Saudi Arabia got its wish - oil prices are surging. So, back to inflation again? Not according to all the evidence. First of all, oil isn't actually inflation, a mistaken belief from what happened in the 70s Great Inflation. Second, markets are looking at crude as...deflationary. Even TIPS inflation expectations.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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This Will Be Worldwide Within 29 days
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"If you want to delve into the deep background of how everything works, check it out here."
#money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #europe #eurodollar #germany
Jerome Powell is selling a soft landing, but is anyone really buying? Not really, no. Risks - which are no longer just theoretical risks - are building all over the place. In addition to China/Asia, deflation has really gripped Europe. Producer prices there are sinking, even core rates. It's only a matter of time before consumer prices get sucked down, too. On...
This is the ONLY Stock Market I watch (Secrets Revealed)
#recession #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #hongkong #china #japan #stocks #dollar #yuan #yen
Hong Kong's Hang Seng stock index correlates with quite a lot of Euro$ money indications beginning with China's yuan. Also others you might not expect such as US$ IRS swap spreads (esp. 30s) and UST yield curve spreads like the 2s10s. Hang Seng is a connection between money and economy as it relates to much of Asia. China is a mess and the latest data from Japan is a true disaster, so no wonder Hang Seng having trouble hanging in. But...
The Job Market Actually BROKE
#recession #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #unemployment #interestrates #jobs
Payrolls numbers were all messed up. Household Survey, too, if not more. More revision madness plaguing the former while full-time jobs keep disappearing from the latter. Steve and I talk about what's really going on here with the data and what it means with a timely visit down memory lane with Tricky Dick.
Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre
President Richard Nixon: Address on the State of the Union Delivered Before a Joint Session of the Congress
https://www.presidency.u...
Did China JUST Trigger GFC 2.0!!
#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #yieldcurve #china #yuan
Another crazy couple of days in China's yuan saga. Authorities continue to escalate their tactics in the increasingly desperate attempt to stabilize CNY. Yet, the more officials feel they have to do, the more they also acknowledge what they've done so far hasn't done nearly enough. The eurodollar just isn't buying the Chinese spin.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg: China Uses Another Tool to Aid Yuan in String of Market Support
https://www.bloomberg.com/new...
Where is The Recession EVERYONE Is Talking About?
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #yieldcurve #unemployment #jobs
According to GDP, the US economy is resilient, really hanging in despite a tough global environment. On the other hand, GDP's twin indicates something very different. Spoiler: the very same as what has kept interest rates incredibly consistent for almost a year despite everything thrown at them. Worse, history has shown the other number is the superior cyclical indicator, no...
Why Is This ALL Happening?
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #yieldcurve #unemployment #jobs
Beware the ides of...August? Only if it happens to foreshadow what's waiting for us in September. Looking for clues about what kind of September this one will be, inflationary and rate hike-y, or in the same category as past Septembers from 2019 or 2011, even last year's. USTs are telling us a lot by not moving around a lot. Labor da...
This Is WHY the Fed Is RIGHT
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #yieldcurve #jacksonehole #unemployment #employment
JOLTS for July jolted the heck out of the soft landing narrative and for very good reasons. To begin with, why the soft landing view has become so widespread. It isn't necessarily what you might think. We have to dig up the current increasingly absurd version of the Phillips Curve to find out. We also have to be aw...
OMG: The global Bond Market just…
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #yieldcurve #jacksonehole #jgb #japan #china #europe #loans
Just over a week ago, I said keep an eye on the yield for the Japanese government's 3-month bill, but I didn't have this in mind at least not in August. The rate absolutely plunged today though the good news is that was the only big mover. Outside the Jbill, more trouble in China CNY al...
Jerome Powell's Most Important Statement EVER
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #yieldcurve #jacksonehole
Why do central bankers need to be "confident" about inflation? At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Jay Powell repeatedly referred to a high level of uncertainty. It doesn't matter if that was hawkish or dovish, those at the Fed portray that they know more than they do. It was the same at Jackson in August 2010 when then-Chair Ben Bernanke used the same "uncertainty" to l...
Is The Banking System Starting To Break?
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #yieldcurve #china #cny #yuan
More developments in China as officials and banks struggle to stabilize the yuan. That is one way we can tell the Economy is getting worse and so are monetary conditions. While almost everyone still believes falling currencies are a choice, a form of export stimulus, here we debunk that myth by reviewing what makes the dollar go up an...
I've Got Bad News For Employees
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #unemployment #employment #softlanding #germany #europe
We always talk about a soft landing, but do they ever happen? They are actually so exceedingly rate Economist Alan Blinder felt it necessary to change the standard to add a "softish" landing if only to make the Fed look better. But it's not about the Fed or rate hikes, rather that once the economy g...
When WIll It END?
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
https://www.eurodollar.university
https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com
https://www.PortfolioShield.net
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THE EPISODES
YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPn
Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN
Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE
iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI
TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z
Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza
Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M
Reason: https://bit.ly/3...
temp
We HAVE To Talk About the Bond Market!!
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Check out my FREE Webinar here
#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #yieldcurve #japan #trade #jpy
Today's lackluster 20-year JGB auction has many wondering if there really is a demand issue for governments, especially after last week's 30-year UST sale (which really wasn't a big deal). It at least raises the question of whether or not a bear steepening in government bonds has ever happened before. Recent data from the US as well as Japan simply reinforce the uncertainty across financial as...
What Do We Do NOW?!
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Last few days of the EDU membership/subscription sale:
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#recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #yieldcurve
Back and forth all year; two years, actually. No recession. Recession. Soft landing, Bank crisis contraction. Right back to soft landing again. Where do we go for something to anchor on to given so much uncertainty? F...
This Is Getting Scary... China Is Getting WAY WORSE Than Expected
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #china #yuan #rmb #cny #japan #jpy #yen
China really is gloomy, but is there hope in Japan for a boom? Not so fast. Though Japanese GDP surged the economy there actually went the other way. A big reason why is the increasingly dangerous slide in China. This has even unnerved Beijing - the PBOC panicked into an unscheduled rate cut (pair of them) and the NBS yanked the youth unemployment rate altogether.
EURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY SEPTEMBER 1 WEBINAR
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The Dollar Is Starting To MOVE... What This Means For YOU
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #china #yuan #rmb #cny #india #rupee
It's not just China's yuan which is experiencing serious turmoil. Now India's rupee has been drawn into the growing maelstrom, too. In both cases, both country's central banks are being forced to alter their currency tactics. Why now? That's the question since we already know the answer to why the dollar is being bullish.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
AP: ‘Bad situation’: Soaring US dollar spreads pain worldwide
https://apnews.com/article/inflat...
The word is: LIQUIDITY.
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #loans #CRE #commercialrealestate #CMBS #ustreasuries #yieldcurve
Are there too many Treasuries? You hear this all the time and while Uncle Sam has spent and borrowed more than human imagination can conceive the reason why the feds are able to is safety and liquidity come first. In 2023, we can see why that would be the case especially as more cracks emerge in key markets.
Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre
BNNBloomberg: Property Loans Are So Unappealing That Banks Wa...
This Is WORSE Than We FEARED
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity #china #lending #yuan #rmb #cny #loans
China's efforts to control or stabilize its currency are failing because the Chinese system has itself become highly unstable. July 2023 lending data shows an alarming drop in credit across all types, indicating a growing credit problem exacerbating an economic and financial system already more than flirting with deflation triggered in full part by worsening global recession conditions.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
FT: China’s rapid reopening will stir the global economy
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There is MORE Coming...
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity
Another thoroughly disinflationary headline CPI joined for a second month by its core component. Not only that, strengthening hints of deflation are becoming more frequent in the details, too. And if that wasn't enough, China's CPI falls negative and its PPI alarmingly goes further on the bad side, too.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Project Syndicate: M El-Erian
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-the-resurgent-transitory-inflation-narrative-is-dangerous-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2023-02
Tweet by M El-Erian
https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1689617154608623616
...
This Day STOPPED The World: August 9th 2007
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #federalreserve #liquidity
August 9, 2007, is a date that should live in infamy but doesn't - not yet. Hardly anyone knows what happened or why it is today still so important and relevant. Amidst a banking crisis that hasn't gone away, Moody's gave us a reminder of it yesterday, understanding what went on and what came after is crucial.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
RCM: Anniversary of a Market Event That Changed Everything
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2014/08/08/anniversary_of_a_panic_th...
China's NEW World-Altering Decision
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #china #trade
Just plain ugliness from China today, first with economic statistics that weren't just the worst since 2009 they are now becoming like 2009. Second, CNY keeps pushing lower to the point the PBOC may be forced to alter its attempt to stabilize China's currency against heavier deflationary and recession eurodollar pressures. This isn't just about the dire shape of the Chinese system, either, rather an accurate reflection of so much negative global potential that is less and less mere potential.
Eurodollar University's Money & Ma...
It Will ALL Be Over In 2024
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #jobs #employment #unemployment
The second half of 2023 just isn't rebounding like so many have hoped. The inventory cycle continues to plague most of the world and is set to get worse not better. The yield curve has shifted to reflect that strong possibility; made stronger by the credit crunch which shows no signs of letting up through the first month of H2.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
A.P. Moller - Maersk reports robust Q2 financial results in difficult market conditions
What is Inflation? What EVERYONE Gets WRONG
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #jobs #employment #unemployment #supplyshock
People hate the word "transitory" because they naturally believe a couple years wouldn't qualify under it. Yet, supply shocks historically take that much time and the current one we are experiencing is following that pattern very closely. What matters now, however, is what comes next. The data not only confirms the supply shock, it also holds a serious warning as to that next step.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jeff's Interview w/Erik Townsend on MacroVoices
...
It Just Happened...The JOB MARKET JUST BROKE!!
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #jobs #employment #unemployment
Payroll report for July wasn't just about July's payrolls. Instead, major downward revisions to every single month this year consistent with a serious enough downturn in the labor market. Plus, hours continue to contract while cyclical industries are right on the edge of mass layoffs.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC: Payrolls rose 339,000 in May, much better than expected in resilient labor market
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/02/jobs-report-may-2023-.html
FRB St Louis: Are Unemployment Da...
BREAKING NEWS SHOWS 77.6% Of US Job Market is IN DANGER
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider
Popular perception suggests services industries are insulated from macro problems plaguing manufacturers. While that may have been true at one time perhaps long ago, it wasn't true in '08 nor would it be today. If anything, service providers are even more closely linked to goods now than ever - many goods won't even function without services. Fewer sales of items, fewer service contracts and then fewer service jobs.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke At the International Monetary Co...
PREPARE for this $1.7 TRILLION EXPLOSION!
#deflation #recession #depression #inflation #interestrates #dollar #bank #money #credit #economy #oil #gasoline #money #whatismoney #jeffsnider #treasury #debt
Fitch downgrades US government debt as its fiscal woes are piling up. Why? The same reason American use of gasoline just nosedived. This is also the reason why the government has been able to continue borrowing all it wants despite its dramatically worsening credit profile. Demand for safety and liquidity in unsafe and illiquid times matters more than how broke Uncle Sam is getting to be.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Fitch Downgrades the United States' Long-Term R...
