Eurodollar University

Something very strange is happening in global markets and in particular one key eurodollar signal that hardly anyone pays much attention to. Everywhere you look, investors are acting like the party is back on. U.S. stocks are surging. Tech stocks are ripping. Semiconductors are 1999-ing it right now. But then there is Hong Kong. Its main stock index, the Hang Seng is not joining the celebration. It’s going in the opposite direction and has for some time now. That’s big because HK is a major Asian money center for not just mainland China. 

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Oil prices are down big. And if you only looked at the headline, the explanation seems obvious: Iran peace deal, supply normalization, geopolitical risk premium coming out. Except that is not what the market is really saying. Or should I say markets plural. There is a lot going on across various curves that shed a very different light on the crude plunge. Big changes in Treasuries, huge, huge shift in TIPS, more than you’d think, and of course oil prices themselves. 

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Private credit is changing again. And this time, the story is not just that investors are still trying to pull money out. That is still happening, of course, with BlackRock the latest name too see a huge run. But now there is another problem. It is not only that current investors want out. It is that new investors aren’t coming in. That is a much bigger shift.

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China just hit another record, though not the kind officials want to talk about. Not record growth. Not record confidence. Not record consumer spending. A record decline in household borrowing. Chinese households are not just borrowing less. They are pulling back at a pace we have not seen before in comparable data. And that is the real warning because this is exactly where China’s worsening downturn becomes much harder to explain away.

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Most people think they understand the dollar. When the dollar goes up, they think that means America is strong. Good economy. Good policy. Maybe the Federal Reserve is doing a good job and investors are “choosing America.” And when the dollar goes down, they think that must be bad. Inflation. Debasement. Money printing. The end of dollar dominance and the famous “dollar doom” story. But what if those are completely backwards?

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India is now being forced to ration diesel fuel for the first time maybe ever. At the same time, global stocks of crude oil are at their lowest since 2003. Even inventories here in the US have been drained to levels we haven’t witnessed in 20 years. In other words, as hopes for a peace deal with Iran rise, our attention must now turn to this critical next stage. While the conflict might subside, hopefully, this thing is far from over. 

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The European Central Bank just raised rates on Thursday into an economy that is already shrinking. That sentence should sound familiar, because Europe has done this before. Not once. Twice. The two questions we now want to ask are, first, whether the ECB’s action will pull others including the Fed into this rate hiking gambit. Second, how long could they hang on hawking before they have to turn around. And what can the markets tell us about both. 

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Gold and silver have been crushed this week and we need to not only explain why, just as important what this drop is telling us about more than precious metals. 

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Webinar June 2026: Why Smart Investors Keep Missing Every Major Economic Turning Point

It isn't that they're buying the wrong assets. They're using a broken map of the monetary system — and getting it wrong leads to catastrophic decisions. Let's fix that. 

Sunday, June 28 @ 5:30pm ET. Sign up below. 
https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home
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The Asian currency crisis is escalating and it’s forcing governments all over the region to get desperate. From India to Indonesia, South Korea and Japan, their situations are becoming a genuine threat to stability. When a country’s currency falls because of a dollar shortage, it is not just a foreign-exchange problem. It is not just a bad day on a currency chart. It can become a destabilizing feedback loop.

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What Is a Credit Cycle — and Where Are We in It? These are questions that keep coming up with everything that’s happening in…the credit market. Not just private credit and shadow banks, but thinking more broadly. Those are where all the downside signals are strongest and where all the excitement is right now. But credit cycles go beyond one sector’s garbage lending and cockroach production. 

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Bond yields rose sharply on Friday, but why? What you’ll hear is that inflation and a strong economy will force the Fed to hike. But that’s only half true – the possibility of the rate hike. All the rest of it, not so much. Both markets and American consumers agree wholeheartedly on all of it. In fact, on Friday, inflation expectations in Treasuries dropped to their lowest levels since early March. Yeah, lowest since the start of the conflict and they were never high to begin with.  

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We’re used to seeing this kind of thing out of the payroll reports, but I don’t think anyone really expected this. Red flags are up all over the May data, coming from all sides. Not the least of which is the context behind all the big problems in the numbers. When dollar stores complain that consumers are no longer able to buy food from dollar stores, you know everything is really out of whack. 

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Europe is preparing its public for something it has tried to avoid for years: a trade fight with China. While all eyes are on Iran and oil, the energy shock is only adding more urgency to a brewing economic battle between two of the world’s biggest markets. According to recent reports, the European Commission has already held closed-door discussions about the next steps against Beijing. The global trade wars are about to blow open.

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Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund just did something it had never done before. Investors tried to pull out about 10% of the fund’s shares. Blackstone finally and for the first time ever said, NO. The $79 billion Blackstone Private Credit Fund, known as B-CRED, told shareholders it would only allow 5% of shares to be redeemed. And this is where the story gets uncomfortable.

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The private credit bust is no longer staying inside private credit. Investors are now pulling money out of a major Swiss private **equity** fund. As the guy once said, this is a big f-ing deal. For months, the story was supposed to be contained. A few private credit funds had redemption pressure. A few non-traded BDCs had to limit withdrawals. Some flighty investors supposedly misunderstood the liquidity terms. The industry’s defense was simple: this is not a credit crisis. This is just a liquidity education problem.

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European banks are doing something that looks irrational. The European Central Bank is increasingly likely to raise its short-term policy rates again. Oil prices are still elevated. Energy costs are feeding into headline inflation. ECB officials keep coming on hawkish. And normally, if you believe short-term rates are going higher, the last thing you’re going to do is rush into government bonds. But European banks are doing exactly that. And in huge amounts. 

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Oil is rebounding again and we have to ask whether it might be the final blow for an economy that was already on the edge to begin with. After all, in yesterday’s video, steve and I showed you the income data that looks just like a recession. 

The energy shock is turning into something bigger. It is...

Did a recession strike the US economy starting in October? Not just the forgot how to grow kind we’ve been grappling with for the last several years, but the all-out, NBER-style, full-blown contraction. Take a look at the data and the charts in this video, let’s see what you think. And that data is coming from income series the NBER itself uses when it decides the recession question. 

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Canada just “unexpectedly” fell into a technical recession. But the important part is not just that Canada contracted. The important part is that Canada’s contraction is lining up with the same weakness now spreading through France, the UK, Germany, Sweden, Mexico, and increasingly the rest of the global system. As one result, central bankers hawkishness is starting to seriously evaporate.

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Private credit has a new problem, and this one is different. For months, the story has been retail investors pulling money from private credit funds. But now we have something else. A Swiss pension fund redeeming shares from a Vista private credit vehicle helped force that fund to limit withdrawals. And that's before asking the question: is software credit the new subprime mortgage?

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JPMorgan just took the Goldilocks off the table. That is not a minor forecast change or some little tweak to a spreadsheet buried on page 47 of a Wall Street outlook. When one of the biggest banks in the world says “Goldilocks is leaving the building” and starts worrying about a **negative growth shock**, what they’re really saying is something big has changed. 

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Home prices are now doing something they were not supposed to do. After years of being told that housing was poised to make a strong comeback and that prices were going to accelerate upward, the latest national housing data is saying something very different: the lowest price rate in fourteen years, going all the way back to the bottom of the Big Housing Bust in 2012.

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For the first time in this cycle, the money going out of major private credit vehicles has surpassed the money coming in. That is the headline, how private credit machine is now facing sustained investor outflows. Stage 2. And here’s the other big part of that – these net outflows are indeed forcing asset sales onto an industry that was never really built for this. That means we’re already deeper into Stage 2 than most people would think.  

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While rumors and reports swirl about a possible Iran deal, the clock is still ticking for an economy that’s way too close to the point of no return on the energy shock. In fact, for Europe, there is a nontrivial chance it’s already gone past. With the latest data out on Friday, the economic numbers for May so far got slammed. It increasingly looks like Europe may have already gone over the cliff with S&P describing France as in a quote “dire” situation.

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The dollar is rising again, and this time the pressure is showing up right across Asia. The Japanese yen is weak.  The South Korean won is tumbling.  The Indonesian rupiah is crashing. The Indian rupee keeps finding new ways to give officials fits. At the same time the dollar is rising against these Asian currencies, the very front of the U.S. dollar interest-rate market is doing something absolutely incredible. Shocking even. Completely the opposite of what you’d think. And here’s the thing – these two developments are related. Why the dollar is hammering Asia most of all and how...

Lowe’s had some more bad news about the American consumer. CEO Marvin Ellison said “This has been the most difficult housing market that I have faced in this business since the financial crisis.” Lowe’s is hardly alone. Walmart said higher income shoppers are still trading down while lower income Americans are, well, they’re running out of their tax refund money. And then there is Kroger. 

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Treasury yields have finally made a sizable move upward. The 2-year Treasury has pushed to new multi-month highs. The 10-year got as high as 4.70%. And instantly, the usual question shows up:
Is the bond market finally repricing real inflation risk? Or is this another hurricane warning where everyone looks at the headline number, panics for five minutes, and misses what the curve is actually saying? Make that curve-S.

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China’s downturn just produced a major hit and it has officials stumped. It was the kind of bad that confirms almost everything already showing up in China’s credit data, banking system, property market, and bond market. Retail sales nearly cracked. Worst month since the lockdowns. Fixed asset investment is crashing again. Yes, crashing. Industrial production, which had been one of the few remaining bright spots, suddenly didn’t look so bright. Home prices were down for the twelfth straight time. It was ugly in every direction. 

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The Justice Department is now probing valuations at a BlackRock private credit fund. That sentence should stop everyone cold. Not because BlackRock is about to disappear. It isn’t. Not because one fund valuation probe means anyone has been proven to have done anything wrong. It doesn’t. A probe is not a conviction, and we need to be clear about that. But because the single biggest weakness in private credit has always been valuations.

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While the ECB and other central banks, maybe even the Fed, are likely to overreact to oil prices by raising their policy rates, suddenly that possibility isn’t so straightforward. Even in Europe where policymakers are the most aggressively hawkish, several officials have come forward expressing major doubts on the inflation narrative, focusing instead on what’s already going on with demand especially for workers. And that’s not oil, two of the world’s leading energy agencies just slashed their own demand forecasts to levels you only see in periods like 2020 or 2009. 

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India is now doing what governments do when the dollar problem starts getting too close to the bone: it is looking for imports it can cut, restrict, tax, license, delay, or possibly even ban. And right at the top of that list sits gold and silver. That might sound like a metals story. It isn’t. Not entirely. It’s a dollar story, though with a key twist for precious metals. 

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Everyone is talking about the Trump-Xi summit as if this is going to be some decisive turning point for China, global trade, maybe even the whole world economy. And, sure, politically, it’s a huge deal. Markets love the idea of the two leaders in the same room because everyone wants to believe a handshake can undo tariffs, trade wars, supply chain chaos, and years of deteriorating relations.
But the latest bank lending data out of China says something VERY different. 

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Two of the oldest political parties are in danger of being completely wiped out in the UK. Rate of change in the economy goes down, rate of change in politics goes way up. Both the Labor and Tories are on the ropes right now, especially labor after the latest local election results were a bloodbath for them. An entirely new UK system is right now emerging from the aftermath – but aftermath of what? A huge warning. 

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The stock market was going to boom either way. Payrolls could have been plus 200 or minus 200, indexes were going to soar no matter what. Either the economy is robust or the other would mean the Fed will be forced to cut a lot of rates. But what the jobs data actually showed, no one was looking for. Complete shock yet again. Sure, the payroll number did what the payroll number always does, it was everything else. 

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Five major developments in the credit crisis/bust. BlackRock, JP Morgan, Blue Owl, Apollo and another big run on a big fund. Private credit didn't go anywhere, the situation keeps escalating and each one of these represents more significant confirmation of the shift toward toxic waste status. From asset valuations to more losses at big names, the behavior has radically changed. 

Eurodollar University Money & Macro Analysis

Gundlach Warns Investors Will Lose Money on Private Credit
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/gundlach-warns-investors-lose-money-200041360.html

BlackRock Private Credit Fund Cuts Asset Value on M...

McDonald’s CEO says the consumer environment is certainly not improving and may be getting a little worse after the company reported better than expected past results. Those mainly before the gas prices jumped. Jumping over to big ticket items like appliances, Whirlpool, the company that employs the Maytag Man, it compared the current consumer climate to  – not joking – 2008-09 as the cracks of demand destruction are indeed beginning to grow wider and becoming more noticeable. The Maytag man is somewhere right now polishing his resume. 

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The stock market was not happy with HSBC. The banking giant reported what should have been a small nothing, a $400mm loss on a loan to an Irish entity with a name that sounds like a Star Wars droid. AGF WHCO 1-A5. But that $400mm loan and loss ended up pulling back the curtain a little more on the current credit crisis. As did the comments from Apollo’s CEO, where he used the words “contagion” and “egregious.” 

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According to the Energy Information Administration, the national average price for gasoline was $4.26 per gallon at the end of April and it was largely stable throughout last month. Not good. Certainly painful. But wholesale gas price has exploded higher in recent weeks and that means retail gas prices are about to do the same thing. The wholesale cost points to a nationwide pump price of $5. Not next month, soon.  

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We know how central bankers are just itching to raise policy rates and all over the world, led primarily by those in Europe. The hawkishness is already spreading. Just today, an official from South Korea’s central bank said, hey, oil prices up we need to think about some hikes, too. But what are the markets pricing? It’s not what you’d think.  What do the curves look like for now but also beyond the near-term? In a word, frown.     

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Will this week’s economic data be enough to keep central bankers from chasing oil prices with rate hikes? Europe was barely positive. Canada bounced back but that’s two up and two down over the last year. Mexico, which, keep in mind, is a proxy for the US, big time contraction. And the US itself missed with weakness all over consumers. All that before the full energy shock weighs in.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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