Eurodollar University

40 Episodes
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By: Jeff Snider

Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.

Australian Central Bank Just Sent a MASSIVE Warning to the World
#1138
Yesterday at 11:00 AM

Only a week after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to pause its rate cutting series, the Australian government reported a rash of exceptionally weak labor data, including the highest unemployment rate for the country in four years. RBA wasn't alone; the Bank of England is finding out the same in the same hard way. Central bank rate cut pauses aren't unusual, and they almost always end just like this.  

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Hotels, Airlines, and Gasoline Just Confirmed the Recession Is Already Here
#1137
Last Thursday at 11:00 AM

Three months ago, hotel operators were confident that the consumer downturn they were experiencing would end being a relatively quick pain. After the tariff matter was finally settled, Americans would sure go back to spending as they always seemed to. Instead, a whole bunch of critical and alarming data out just today has poured oceans of deflationary cold water on the recovery hope. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Reuters Hilton cuts 2025 revenue growth forecast as US travel demand softens
https://www.reuters.com/business/hilton-cuts-2025-revenue-growth-forecast-economic-uncertainty-weighs-2025-04-29/

PRNewswire WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS R...


This CPI Report Just Exposed the Fed’s Biggest Problem
#1136
Last Wednesday at 11:00 AM

Five months and little to show for it. Tariffs have been applied for that long, yet consumer prices remain suspiciously tame. The real story isn't the possible pass-through of trade duties, its why that isn't happening on a far broader basis. We got more evidence for why from American bank balance sheets. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

BLS June 2025 CPI
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm

Bloomberg US Core CPI Rises Less Than Expected Again Despite Tariff Impact
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-15/us-core-cpi-rises-less-than-expected-for-a-fifth-straight-month

B...


Worlds 5th Largest Bank Just Sent a MASSIVE Warning to the World
#1135
Last Tuesday at 1:06 PM

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, had some very harsh words and a pointed warning. He said the world was at high risk from tariffs. And while the activities of "his" bank largely agree with the high degree of risk, it's the complete opposite from what Dimon said publicly. This is not the first time this has happened, either. When the risks are greatest, JPM's CEO says one thing while JPM itself does the opposite. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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The Second Phase of Asia’s Collapse has Begun
#1134
Last Monday at 11:00 AM

Asia is suddenly awash in deflation. Japan is now experiencing it. And while not necessarily new for China, the acceleration downward to producer prices hints at deterioration in demand, overseas as well as locally. It's become a big enough change the government in Beijing crucially appears to shifting its own economic focus, a potentially profound worldwide signal. Oh, and Jamie Dimon.

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU


BREAKING: Bank Rules JUST Changed, Here's What You MUST Know
#1133
Last Sunday at 2:18 PM

The country's top bank regulators have proposed a major change to the banking rules. Some say this is like a stealth QE, everyone else appears equally confused. We'll get into what the new changes mean. More important, where these various ratios came from and why bank they are so hyped when they really shouldn't be. 

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This Is What Happens Before Every MAJOR Rate Cut
#1132
07/11/2025

A July rate cut is far from off the table. In addition to the macroeconomic evidence, the FOMC minutes from last month’s meeting make clear there really isn’t some divide among policymakers. In fact, the text leaves the distinct impression officials really don’t want to a repeat of last year. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis


Amazon Reveals Americans Have Hit Their Breaking Point
#1131
07/10/2025

Amazon Prime Days have been doubled to four, simply confirming just how this year really is different for the consumer economy. It is merely the latest to testify for highly unusual weakness. Along with a sharp drop in credit card usage, the historically unusual decline in weekly worker earnings show exactly why there are four Prime Days this year. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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NBC News Amazon extends Prime Day discounts to 4 d...


You Won’t Believe What the Fed Just Said About Interest Rates
#1130
07/09/2025

This wasn't supposed to happen. In fact, many said it was impossible up to and including central bank officials at the Federal Reserve. Yet, one of them, the head of the all-important New York branch, just released a report which say the market is taking ZIRP possibilities very seriously - and so should those at the highest levels of the Fed. 

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This Is The Setup for a Historic Currency Crash
#1129
07/08/2025

The world is supposed to be all over the "sell America" trade, so why is it only this one key currency is? The thing is now sticking out like a sore thumb as more and more pile onto "sell America" here without any corroboration at all. Even FX modelers are confused by this insistence. What happens when everyone is on one side of a transaction under false assumptions? It converges. Sometimes violently. 

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This Shocking Collapse in Canada and Mexico Is a Warning for America
#1128
07/07/2025

Is this the payback? The rate cuts aren't working and that can only mean more of them. The best current examples are to north and south of the US where rolling over has taken on a new sense of urgency, especially since both are, at the margins, a proxy for American demand.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU


The Day the Monetary System Changed Forever (And No One Noticed)
#1127
07/06/2025

It was supposed to be one single out-of-control Wall Street bank. When authorities were forced to look into the matter, what they uncovered was a shocking. Not one but EVERYONE. Yet, after uncovering what was going on, the full astonishing scale, they never figured out WHY. And that was the whole thing, what the scandal said about a world that had already drastically changed. 

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Treasury Joint R...


BREAKING: Payroll Report Released (Here’s What You Must Know)
#1126
07/04/2025

To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:
https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps

Like last month, this June payroll report was taken one way in the mainstream while the details went entirely in the other direction. Headline was a beat and the unemployment rate stalled. Yet, the former was ironically a product of government jobs while the latter slid a tiny amount for ALL THE WRONG REASONS.


HOLY SH*T! Banks Are Preparing for Something Big
#1125
07/02/2025

There is something going on in the money system with collateral. We've been covering bills and the latest data sheds more light on what is likely happening. It is something we've seen many times before. That's not a good sign. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU


You Won’t Believe What FedEx Just Revealed About Consumers
#1124
07/01/2025

Fedex is a global bellwether for good reason. What the company said about the economic environment at the start of Q3 was...nothing. But in choosing not to forecast anything, the company said a lot especially given the evidence that has come piling up. We haven't seen consumer spending and incomes like this in America since 2020. That's not a typo. Flat Beveridge. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:
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T...


Interest Rates Just Made a MASSIVE Move!! (Something BIG Is Happening)
#1123
06/30/2025

Big moves in yields, especially at the front. While twos are making a move on their own, it's the very front at the first-in-line bills that draws our attention. Steepening has been given a boost by some ugly recent data from right where it counts - incomes and spending.

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre

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If You’re Scared of AI, Watch This
#1122
06/29/2025

AI shouldn't provoke fear and anxiety, it should raise expectations for regular 4-day workweek with 3-day weekends. Artificial Intelligence represents a potential major leap in labor productivity. The end result isn't a desolate hellscape which leaves everyone unemployed, it's instead something economics (small "e") is very familiar with. 

webinar link https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps

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Oh Sh*T... The ENTIRE U.S. Economy Just Got Downgraded
#1121
06/27/2025

To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:
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It never was entirely tariff distortions. Everyone had tried to dismiss Q1 as an anomaly. Later revisions have instead shown there is indeed a shift happening among US consumers. Even Winnebago agrees and RVs are the canary for the canary in the macro coalmine. Beveridge is getting closer. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg US GDP Revised Lower as Consumers Slash Services Spending
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/us-gdp-revised-lower-as-consumers-slash-recreation-spending


The Most Significant Real Estate Event in DECADES is Here
#1120
06/26/2025

The housing market keeps spitting out alarming signs of a growing bust. Sales are down huge, prices are actually falling - and that's the government's estimates. Most of all, this is directly connected to the economy and especially jobs. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Bloomberg Bond Traders Boost Bets US 10-Year Yield Will Dive Toward 4%
https://www...


The Last Time This Happened, the System Almost Collapsed
#1119
06/25/2025

Swiss francs are soaring again. This isn't a "sell America" trade (which doesn't exist), or the crashing dollar (also doesn't exist). The monetary system remains on edge and now we know why. The shocking full story of what really happened in April and how close we were to the shadow's edge. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU


The Housing Crash Just Started in Florida
#1118
06/24/2025

Florida has long been the housing canary in the national real estate coalmine. The situation in the Sunshine State is anything but sunny with prices even outright declining in six key areas. That's just where the downturn is most pronounced right now. The excuses for an increasingly ugly housing market have worn out as the real story is finally being revealed. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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BREAKING: The Fed Just Announced Rate Cuts (What You Must Know)
#1117
06/23/2025

The Fed is going cut...in July. Period. Book it. Conditions have drastically changed and the officials shift is now underway. Rates are going down everywhere, including in DC.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

CNBC Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as July
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/20/fed-governor-waller-says-central-bank-could-cut-rates-as-early-as-july.html

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The Forgotten Depression That Explains What’s Happening Today
#1116
06/22/2025

A lot of people, maybe even a majority, find the idea of a two-decade long depression too far-fetched to take seriously. Something like that could never, ever happen. Could it? The problem is most everyone's idea of what a depression is needs to be corrected - another huge piece left missing by Economics. What is a depression? Way too familiar. 

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NBER Cycle Dates
https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions

NYT Sept 19, 1873
https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1873/09/19/issue.html

David A. Wells The E...


Europe’s Wealthiest Nations Are Quietly Falling Apart
#1115
06/20/2025

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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It's back. No one wanted it, but it's here. Switzerland is first to revisit this dreaded milestone. Others aren't far behind, including now Sweden. The Swedes are facing exactly the sort of rough circumstances that made the Swiss National Bank take this drastic step. And if you think the Fed's dots have separate the FOMC from all this, look no further than one ye...


Fed Rate Decision Going Viral, Here's what you MUST Know
#1114
06/19/2025

The FOMC met today and while predictably there was no rate action, neither the dots nor the downgraded economy were the key takeaways. Chair Powell’s press conference became the perfect example of what the Fed has become. 

What would you say you do here?

Meanwhile, the markets, the economy and T-bills. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis


Airlines Just Issued a MASSIVE Warning About Consumer Behavior
#1113
06/18/2025

Struggling airlines grappling with staycations offer insight into consumer behavior. Meanwhile, the government also showed spending on goods (and certain key services) tanked again in May. Even the world's biggest entertainers and their concert tours are suddenly having a hard time. The dreaded pullback keeps getting louder and more confirmed.   

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

IATA June 2025
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-06-02-01/

Bloomberg Trump Risks US Consumer Discontent With His Tariffs, Poll Shows
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-24/trump-risks-us-consumer-discontent-with-his-tariffs-poll-shows

Bloomberg Concert Ti...


This Is What a Banking Crisis Looks Like
#1112
06/17/2025

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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Nine months later, China's bazooka has totally flopped. We have all the proof necessary. But the "stimulus" failure is not even the biggest takeaway. The full story behind it starts with banks, detours into massive volatility in Hong Kong, before ending up with zombies. Seriously. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Beijing’s Borrowing Drove Credit Growth Despite Weak Loan...


Oil Just Said the Quiet Part Out Loud
#1111
06/16/2025

Oil explodes at the worst time imaginable. There is no good time, of course, here in June 2025 the economy is dealing with tariffs, tariff-distortions, not to mention a noticeable amount of fragility already. Is rising oil going to spark the inflation reignition the Fed has been fearing?

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU


Everything You’ve Been Told About the Dollar Is Wrong
#1110
06/15/2025

When did the dollar stop being a dollar? Most people might answer August 15, 1971, but a more accurate answer would be around a hundred years before then. There isn't exact date, just the most consequential evolution no one has ever heard of. The good news is that evolution doesn't stop. 

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU


Is the Bond Market Wrong?
#1109
06/13/2025

Why are LT rates rising? Most people say it is the long overdue reckoning. After resisting inflation, the Fed, most of all insane debt levels for years, the chickens have finally come home to roost for longer-dated Treasury notes and bonds. And that would mean the market was wrong about all those factors up until now. What IS happening on the curve?

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU


BREAKING: World Bank Issues DIRE Warning to the World
#1108
06/12/2025

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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Negative downgrades to the world. Negative rates among major bonds already. Negative prices for consumers - here in the United States. The deflationary signals keep picking up. More to the point, all of this adds up to what markets like swaps have been saying for years. And that's the bad news. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

World Bank 
http...


This Is What the Collapse Looks Like
#1107
06/11/2025

Central bankers are being forced to reckon with their inflation biases which are not standing up to reality. Deflationary consequences are breaking out worldwide, either in the form of increasingly layoff-riddled labor markets or outright price deflation; sometimes both. The global race to the bottom for interest rates is spreading as acknowledgement of economic facts rather than Economics fantasy. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU


You Won’t Believe What India’s Central Bank Just Did
#1106
06/10/2025

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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RBI went full-blown shock and awe. Yet another major global central bank previously fixated on "inflation" abruptly and aggressively joining the race to the bottom. For India, it wasn't  heavy rate cuts this time. Indian Officials said they want to shore up confidence; OK, so how bad is confidence if they fell "shock and awe" is necessary to shore it up?

Eur...


Something Really Strange Just Happened to the Bond Market
#1105
06/09/2025

ST rates have dropped sharply in the past few weeks, the past few days, in particular. The 4w Treasury bill now yields less than IOR, repo, even the Fed's RRP "floor." That's not all: the 3m10s spread has reinverted again. At the same time another major central bank just hit the panic button, going with a 50-bps cut only a few months after getting started. Where is this all heading? Not in Jay's direction.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU


URGENT: The Labor Market Just Broke
#1104
06/08/2025

The payroll estimates for May were a total mess. The headline was weak, revisions make it totally unreliable anyway, and it only gets worse from there. A lot worse. The labor market is breaking down and it's getting uncomfortable and dangerous.


While EVERYONE'S Distracted by Trump and Elon, the ECB Just SHOCKED the World
#1103
06/06/2025

Eight times now. The ECB is trying to say it might be one now, yet no one is listening least of all the economy. What everyone really wants to know is, when is the Fed going to follow along? In addition to all these other central banks acting, the latest reports from the Fed itself show that rejoining the global rate race might be a lot closer than everyone thinks. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

ECB Press Conference Statement 
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250605~f00a36ef2b...


WARNING: ADP Job Numbers Revised MASSIVELY Down
#1102
06/05/2025

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
 http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/

For a week when the labor market and its data are in the bright, blaring spotlight, it did NOT get off to a good start. Not only ADP, also ISM. Both together showed the economy continued losing momentum and vitality in May - even with tariff delays and a stock market rebound. Both ended p with some of the worst numbers for each in...


This Is What An Economic Collapse Actually Looks Like
#1101
06/04/2025

Why are swap spreads today as negative as they had been in the worst parts of April? Why is Swiss franc nearly as strong? Consumer prices undershooting and even turning negative offer a bigtime clue. As does the latest from Chinese and American factories. It’s not one big thing like April, it’s all the little things which keep coming up and piling on. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Swiss Inflation Turns Negative for First Time in Four Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/swiss-inflation-turns-negative-for-first-time-in-four-years

Bloomberg Euro-Zone Infla...


Oh No, European Banks Are Doing Something REALLY Weird
#1100
06/03/2025

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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Several more countries around the world are reporting contractions in GDP even before getting to trade wars and any tariff impacts. The latest cluster around Scandinavia and have European banks overall behaving in very curious ways. So much so, the typically hands-off ECB is writing letters to them and threatening on-site visits to get some answers before the economy really takes its turn. 

<...


BREAKING: Texas Gives MASSIVE Warning Of Consumer Behavior
#1099
06/02/2025

Texas Just Sent a Warning Shot to the Rest of the U.S. Economy

Consumer spending in Texas has collapsed, and the data from the Dallas Fed is worse than anyone expected. Retail sales activity fell off a cliff in May, hitting levels not seen since April 2020. Inventories are piling up, work hours are being slashed, and employers are cutting back.

Is this just a Texas problem… or is it the first sign of a nationwide consumer retrenchment?

In this video, we break down the shocking data, why it matters, and how it co...