Eurodollar University
Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.
HOLY SH*T! Banks Are Preparing for Something Big
There is something going on in the money system with collateral. We've been covering bills and the latest data sheds more light on what is likely happening. It is something we've seen many times before. That's not a good sign.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:
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https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
You Won’t Believe What FedEx Just Revealed About Consumers
Fedex is a global bellwether for good reason. What the company said about the economic environment at the start of Q3 was...nothing. But in choosing not to forecast anything, the company said a lot especially given the evidence that has come piling up. We haven't seen consumer spending and incomes like this in America since 2020. That's not a typo. Flat Beveridge.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:
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T...
Interest Rates Just Made a MASSIVE Move!! (Something BIG Is Happening)
Big moves in yields, especially at the front. While twos are making a move on their own, it's the very front at the first-in-line bills that draws our attention. Steepening has been given a boost by some ugly recent data from right where it counts - incomes and spending.
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
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If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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To...
If You’re Scared of AI, Watch This
AI shouldn't provoke fear and anxiety, it should raise expectations for regular 4-day workweek with 3-day weekends. Artificial Intelligence represents a potential major leap in labor productivity. The end result isn't a desolate hellscape which leaves everyone unemployed, it's instead something economics (small "e") is very familiar with.
webinar link https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps
Eurodollar University's Make it Make Cents
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Oh Sh*T... The ENTIRE U.S. Economy Just Got Downgraded
To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:
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It never was entirely tariff distortions. Everyone had tried to dismiss Q1 as an anomaly. Later revisions have instead shown there is indeed a shift happening among US consumers. Even Winnebago agrees and RVs are the canary for the canary in the macro coalmine. Beveridge is getting closer.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg US GDP Revised Lower as Consumers Slash Services Spending
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/us-gdp-revised-lower-as-consumers-slash-recreation-spending
The Most Significant Real Estate Event in DECADES is Here
The housing market keeps spitting out alarming signs of a growing bust. Sales are down huge, prices are actually falling - and that's the government's estimates. Most of all, this is directly connected to the economy and especially jobs.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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Bloomberg Bond Traders Boost Bets US 10-Year Yield Will Dive Toward 4%
https://www...
The Last Time This Happened, the System Almost Collapsed
Swiss francs are soaring again. This isn't a "sell America" trade (which doesn't exist), or the crashing dollar (also doesn't exist). The monetary system remains on edge and now we know why. The shocking full story of what really happened in April and how close we were to the shadow's edge.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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The Housing Crash Just Started in Florida
Florida has long been the housing canary in the national real estate coalmine. The situation in the Sunshine State is anything but sunny with prices even outright declining in six key areas. That's just where the downturn is most pronounced right now. The excuses for an increasingly ugly housing market have worn out as the real story is finally being revealed.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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BREAKING: The Fed Just Announced Rate Cuts (What You Must Know)
The Fed is going cut...in July. Period. Book it. Conditions have drastically changed and the officials shift is now underway. Rates are going down everywhere, including in DC.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
CNBC Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as July
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/20/fed-governor-waller-says-central-bank-could-cut-rates-as-early-as-july.html
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The Forgotten Depression That Explains What’s Happening Today
A lot of people, maybe even a majority, find the idea of a two-decade long depression too far-fetched to take seriously. Something like that could never, ever happen. Could it? The problem is most everyone's idea of what a depression is needs to be corrected - another huge piece left missing by Economics. What is a depression? Way too familiar.
Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents
NBER Cycle Dates
https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions
NYT Sept 19, 1873
https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1873/09/19/issue.html
David A. Wells The E...
Europe’s Wealthiest Nations Are Quietly Falling Apart
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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It's back. No one wanted it, but it's here. Switzerland is first to revisit this dreaded milestone. Others aren't far behind, including now Sweden. The Swedes are facing exactly the sort of rough circumstances that made the Swiss National Bank take this drastic step. And if you think the Fed's dots have separate the FOMC from all this, look no further than one ye...
Fed Rate Decision Going Viral, Here's what you MUST Know
The FOMC met today and while predictably there was no rate action, neither the dots nor the downgraded economy were the key takeaways. Chair Powell’s press conference became the perfect example of what the Fed has become.
What would you say you do here?
Meanwhile, the markets, the economy and T-bills.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Airlines Just Issued a MASSIVE Warning About Consumer Behavior
Struggling airlines grappling with staycations offer insight into consumer behavior. Meanwhile, the government also showed spending on goods (and certain key services) tanked again in May. Even the world's biggest entertainers and their concert tours are suddenly having a hard time. The dreaded pullback keeps getting louder and more confirmed.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
IATA June 2025
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-06-02-01/
Bloomberg Trump Risks US Consumer Discontent With His Tariffs, Poll Shows
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-24/trump-risks-us-consumer-discontent-with-his-tariffs-poll-shows
Bloomberg Concert Ti...
This Is What a Banking Crisis Looks Like
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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Nine months later, China's bazooka has totally flopped. We have all the proof necessary. But the "stimulus" failure is not even the biggest takeaway. The full story behind it starts with banks, detours into massive volatility in Hong Kong, before ending up with zombies. Seriously.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Beijing’s Borrowing Drove Credit Growth Despite Weak Loan...
Oil Just Said the Quiet Part Out Loud
Oil explodes at the worst time imaginable. There is no good time, of course, here in June 2025 the economy is dealing with tariffs, tariff-distortions, not to mention a noticeable amount of fragility already. Is rising oil going to spark the inflation reignition the Fed has been fearing?
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Everything You’ve Been Told About the Dollar Is Wrong
When did the dollar stop being a dollar? Most people might answer August 15, 1971, but a more accurate answer would be around a hundred years before then. There isn't exact date, just the most consequential evolution no one has ever heard of. The good news is that evolution doesn't stop.
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Is the Bond Market Wrong?
Why are LT rates rising? Most people say it is the long overdue reckoning. After resisting inflation, the Fed, most of all insane debt levels for years, the chickens have finally come home to roost for longer-dated Treasury notes and bonds. And that would mean the market was wrong about all those factors up until now. What IS happening on the curve?
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
BREAKING: World Bank Issues DIRE Warning to the World
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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Negative downgrades to the world. Negative rates among major bonds already. Negative prices for consumers - here in the United States. The deflationary signals keep picking up. More to the point, all of this adds up to what markets like swaps have been saying for years. And that's the bad news.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
World Bank
http...
This Is What the Collapse Looks Like
Central bankers are being forced to reckon with their inflation biases which are not standing up to reality. Deflationary consequences are breaking out worldwide, either in the form of increasingly layoff-riddled labor markets or outright price deflation; sometimes both. The global race to the bottom for interest rates is spreading as acknowledgement of economic facts rather than Economics fantasy.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
You Won’t Believe What India’s Central Bank Just Did
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/
RBI went full-blown shock and awe. Yet another major global central bank previously fixated on "inflation" abruptly and aggressively joining the race to the bottom. For India, it wasn't heavy rate cuts this time. Indian Officials said they want to shore up confidence; OK, so how bad is confidence if they fell "shock and awe" is necessary to shore it up?
Eur...
Something Really Strange Just Happened to the Bond Market
ST rates have dropped sharply in the past few weeks, the past few days, in particular. The 4w Treasury bill now yields less than IOR, repo, even the Fed's RRP "floor." That's not all: the 3m10s spread has reinverted again. At the same time another major central bank just hit the panic button, going with a 50-bps cut only a few months after getting started. Where is this all heading? Not in Jay's direction.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
URGENT: The Labor Market Just Broke
The payroll estimates for May were a total mess. The headline was weak, revisions make it totally unreliable anyway, and it only gets worse from there. A lot worse. The labor market is breaking down and it's getting uncomfortable and dangerous.
While EVERYONE'S Distracted by Trump and Elon, the ECB Just SHOCKED the World
Eight times now. The ECB is trying to say it might be one now, yet no one is listening least of all the economy. What everyone really wants to know is, when is the Fed going to follow along? In addition to all these other central banks acting, the latest reports from the Fed itself show that rejoining the global rate race might be a lot closer than everyone thinks.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ECB Press Conference Statement
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250605~f00a36ef2b...
WARNING: ADP Job Numbers Revised MASSIVELY Down
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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For a week when the labor market and its data are in the bright, blaring spotlight, it did NOT get off to a good start. Not only ADP, also ISM. Both together showed the economy continued losing momentum and vitality in May - even with tariff delays and a stock market rebound. Both ended p with some of the worst numbers for each in...
This Is What An Economic Collapse Actually Looks Like
Why are swap spreads today as negative as they had been in the worst parts of April? Why is Swiss franc nearly as strong? Consumer prices undershooting and even turning negative offer a bigtime clue. As does the latest from Chinese and American factories. It’s not one big thing like April, it’s all the little things which keep coming up and piling on.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Swiss Inflation Turns Negative for First Time in Four Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/swiss-inflation-turns-negative-for-first-time-in-four-years
Bloomberg Euro-Zone Infla...
Oh No, European Banks Are Doing Something REALLY Weird
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/
Several more countries around the world are reporting contractions in GDP even before getting to trade wars and any tariff impacts. The latest cluster around Scandinavia and have European banks overall behaving in very curious ways. So much so, the typically hands-off ECB is writing letters to them and threatening on-site visits to get some answers before the economy really takes its turn.
<...BREAKING: Texas Gives MASSIVE Warning Of Consumer Behavior
Texas Just Sent a Warning Shot to the Rest of the U.S. Economy
Consumer spending in Texas has collapsed, and the data from the Dallas Fed is worse than anyone expected. Retail sales activity fell off a cliff in May, hitting levels not seen since April 2020. Inventories are piling up, work hours are being slashed, and employers are cutting back.
Is this just a Texas problem… or is it the first sign of a nationwide consumer retrenchment?
In this video, we break down the shocking data, why it matters, and how it co...
The Truth About the Dollar They DON’T Want You to Know
Everyone's favorite topic, yet there is little factually correct information floating around the internet or social media. You can't understand the dollar's position until you realize it's actually the eurodollar you're really talking about. And that means reserve currency, and hardly anyone knows what that truly means or involves. Until now.
Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents
FOMC Minutes December 1963
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomchistmin19631217.pdf
FOMC Transcript Feb 1998
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19980204meeting.pdf
BIS 1964 34th Annual Report
https://www.bis.org/p...
You Won’t Believe What South Korea’s Central Bank Just Did
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/
South Korea had been on the side of the Fed, sticking with interest rates opting to see about trade war "uncertainty" before doing anything. That lasted all of four weeks. The list of central banks able to sit by and watch CPI has thinned down to just the one Mr. Powell runs. And the update to Q1 GDP in the US holds the ke...
The Global Economy Just Flipped (Mass Layoffs Have Begun)
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/
Germany. France. New Zealand. Singapore. ECB. Rising unemployment. Falling employment. Lowering interest rates. Technical recession. Historically low territory up next. There is almost no one left in the official world in the same thinking as the Fed as the world more clearly and completely tilts against "inflation."
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
WSJ Germany’s Jobless Numbers Tick Higher
h...
Australian Central Bank Just Sent a MASSIVE Warning to the World
The Reserve Bank of Australia had resisted cutting rates, being the last major central bank to do so. This week, RBA not only cut again officials confirmed discussing a fifty. Plus the Swedes, who were supposed to have been done, are back at it again. Race to the bottom heats up again.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
Bloomberg RBA Ready to Respond If Needed to Trade Shock, Hauser Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-22/rba-s-hauser-sees-us-china-trade-dispute-aiding-australian-firms
S&P Global Eurozone PMIs May 2025
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com...
The Fed Is About to Cut Rates, Here’s What They’re NOT Telling You
The economy weakens and everyone looks to the Fed or any central bank to cut policy rates. But why? They call it stimulus but the real reason is nothing you've ever heard. In fact, Fed officials intentionally lied for decades to keep this quiet. You don't have to take my word for it; hear it from the maestro's mouth as we go down the rabbit hole of interest rates.
Eurodollar University's Make it Make Cents
FOMC March 1991
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdf
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URGENT: The Bond Market JUST Flashed a MAJOR Warning
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/
LT rates are up and you know what that means: get ready for a flood of claims deficits suddenly now matter. They don't (sadly), at least not for bonds, and we know they don't because not all the yield curve maturities are seeing selling. The one spot on the curve you always want to watch is sending another major warning, and it isn't to...
You Won’t Believe What Global Banks JUST Did
We have more confirmation of a huge and unusual rise in bank lending to this offshore category. It parallels other similar corroboration which raises several thorny issues, leaving us with two broad interpretations for what this really means. With new data becoming available, it raises the stakes for a possible next time.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
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You Won’t Believe What the Swiss Central Bank Just Said
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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While we wait to see if the Swiss National Bank opts for zero or negative policy rates next month, its chief Martin Schlegel had a lot to say yesterday about a range of topics, including negative prices, Treasury bonds, and global risks. Jamie Dimon then today chimed in today cautioning that stocks and risk markets are ready for heightened credit risks. One reason wh...
URGENT: U.S. Credit Debt Just Got Downgraded, Is a Crash Next?In a late Friday news dump, Moody's announced it had downgraded U.S. federal government debt. The news sparked a selloff in Treasuries, at least initially. What are the implications for bonds or the economy? It's not what the mainstream thinks it does. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg What the US Losing Its Last AAA Credit Rating Means https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/us-lost-moody-s-aaa-credit-rating-what-s-at-stake-for-markets S&P Global August 5, 2011 https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/6802837 Fitch August 1, 2023 https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-united-states-long-term-ratings-to-aa-from-aaa-outlook-stable-01-08-2023 https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
In a late Friday news dump, Moody's announced it had downgraded U.S. federal government debt. The news sparked a selloff in Treasuries, at least initially. What are the implications for bonds or the economy? It's not what the mainstream thinks it does.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg What the US Losing Its Last AAA Credit Rating Means
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/us-lost-moody-s-aaa-credit-rating-what-s-at-stake-for-markets
S&P Global August 5, 2011
https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/6802837
Fitch August 1, 2023
https://www.fitchratings...
Japan JUST Entered a Recession And It's Quickly Spreading Worldwide
Japan did indeed fall back into recession in the first quarter before the tariff shock even had a chance to hit the economy, and positing a deeper negative GDP print than expected. Like everywhere else, the setback is being led largely by consumers. At the same time, American consumer confidence fell to another shocking low rather than rebound with trade deals and a rebounding stock market.
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Everything You’ve Been Told About the Great Depression Is Wrong
It’s still known as Black Tuesday almost a century later. In October 1929, the stock market crashes and plunges the world into the Great Depression. At least that’s what we’ve been told and what we all believe. But then why didn’t the Crash of 1987 lead to Great Depression 2? I mean, it didn’t even slow the economy down. Or the dot-com crash. Something is missing. As it turns out, there's a lot missing and so this is the first installment to fill in what Economics leaves out, or plain gets wrong.
Eurodollar University's Make it Make Cen...
The Retail Death Spiral Has Begun
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/
It was a trifecta of disinflation disaster in today's numbers, with Walmart adding to the woes with its own deteriorating environment. Retail sales were more than soft, industrial output fell, but most concerning prices fell sharply - including wholesale services costs crashing the most on record.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Walmart Q1 earnings
https://corporate.walmart.com/con...
The Most Dangerous Economic Story No One Is Talking About
Chinese banks cut lending - by a lot - in April, completing the defensive story seen in banking systems all around the world. However, China's is unique in several key aspects, starting with what authorities have been doing trying to change this. The reason why it has come to this for Chinese banks really is not what everyone believes.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Why China Is Hoping $1.6 Trillion Can Fix Its Hidden Debt Problem
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-economy-can-1-6-trillion-help-solve-xi-s-hidden-debt-problem
Rueters China's property 'whitelist' lifeline s...
