Eurodollar University

Blaming Amazon's Prime Day, everyone is trying to work around yet another "unexpected" negative number. Following an "unexpected" drop in July payrolls, the Census Bureau now reports an "unexpected" drop in retail sales alongside an "unexpected" setback in consumer confidence and, yes, an "unexpected" decline in gasoline usage during peak driving season. None of this is unexpected, just the work of more mini-cycles. 

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still...

Record decline in Chinese bank loan flows is only where this starts. It's what China's government did in response in announcing a major financial crackdown that really matters. Combined with the latest macro data, it is all leading to another real world example exposing the fallacy of interest rates. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I’ll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider ran...

There is something going on with the long bond, that’s for sure, but what is it really? The answer is surprisingly simple, and it also explains why the last 30-year Treasury auction held this week was said to have been a mess. That was more about what everyone says than what’s happening and why. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I’ll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platfor...

Japan and the United States just launched one of the most dramatic currency interventions in decades. But less than two weeks later, half the yen’s gains have already disappeared. The currency is already back around 159 to the dollar, once again threatening the psychologically important 160 level. Now what?

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield...

When the person responsible for managing nearly **$2 trillion of a nation’s savings** starts discussing the possibility of losing all of it, you should probably listen. Though, deep down you already know what I’m talking about. You think everyone is long and buying the market. The truth is, people are already checking out, especially the institutional types. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name...

Yes, we are going to have to worry about mortgage debt, too. To say the nation's largest private mortgage originator had a bad week is an understatement. But what did the company's stock plunge tell us? Not subprime 2.0. Instead, a familiar tale spreads yet again.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid...

Shock on Wall Street as the jobs numbers stun everyone - almost everyone. It was a mess but a predictable one following the pattern we've been laying out. And it wasn't just payrolls, with critical confirmation showing up all across the household survey and unemployment. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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https://www.eurodollar.university
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Stocks are heading for Crash of '87 repeat? Michael Burry thinks that could be the case as the Big Short investor sees a number of parallels. One that most people wouldn't necessarily think of just reared its ugly head again. The cockroaches are back. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/michael-burry-bets-against-rally-we-are-near-a-major-top.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/ne...

The 30-year long bond recently hit its highest yield in nineteen years. This is a significant development, but not for the reasons anyone has heard. And we've seen this before, so the big message is how the yield got to where it is, not where it is. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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If you want to see The Four Economic Regimes, and How to Position Your Portfolio for Each One, sign up here 

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Reports say the US intervened in yen markets, selling euros and buying JPY. It raises several questions: Is the United States bailing out the yen? Why? Why now? Unlike currency manipulation, the answers are surprisingly easy. It's what they amount to that's hard. 

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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If you want to see The Four Economic Regimes, and How to Position Your Portfolio for Each One, sign up here 

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Everyone believes the AI bubble is mainly about stocks. That makes sense. The obvious historical comparison is the dot-com bubble. However, this one is all about credit unlike 1999. And that credit is now talking loudly through credit default swaps and other debt market signals. 

Companies like Oracle and SpaceX have seen their CDS prices surge recently, with big moves in July across all the big names in AI tech: Amazon, Meta, and negative cash flow for the first time Google, Alphabet, whatever the company calls itself. Nvidia is seeing higher premiums. Even BlackRock trying to sell an A...

Live reaction to the most uncertain FOMC meeting in years. What the markets are doing before and after. The two competing views driving the uncertainty. Any surprises in the Fed statements (YES!). Yields. Curves. TIPS. Swaps. All the relevant info. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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If you want to see The Four Economic Regimes, and How to Position Your Portfolio for Each One, sign up here 

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

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When people hear the words “trade war,” they usually think of one person: Donald Trump. But while everyone has been watching Washington and Beijing, another potential trade war has been developing much more quietly—and this one could be even more disruptive than most people realize. And for one of its participants, a key line has just been crossed. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your nam...

There is a MAJOR dislocation across the entire marketplace you need to know about, and it starts with Nestle and French fries, not the fed funds rate. Swaps, inflation demand, curves, even oil; you name it. You think everyone agrees with the Fed or ECB about what's coming next, but the truth is the OVERWHELMING consensus is entirely different from what you're hearing. It's not even close and that's huge. 

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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Learn more about Augusta Precious Metals and what they have to offer - including physical g...

Most people believe another Asian financial crisis can’t happen. Not like 1997. Asian governments now have enormous foreign-exchange reserves. Their currencies are generally more flexible. Banks are better regulated. Officials supposedly understand contagion, currency mismatches, and the importance of acting quickly.

In short, Asia learned its lesson. But what if that is the wrong lesson?

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name...

Google just reported something it had never reported in its entire history as a public company: Negative quarterly free cash flow. Not a small decline, either: $5.9 billion. From Japan to Thailand, China and the United States, the boom is producing some enormous numbers. What it is NOT producing—at least for the foreseeable future—is the real story.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Learn more about Augusta Precious Metals and what they have to offer - including physical gold for IRA accounts - by going to:

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When people hear the words *private credit stress*, they usually imagine small, struggling companies loaded with debt—businesses most investors have never heard of. They assume the damage will remain contained among risky borrowers, private-equity deals, and obscure funds. But that misses the real warning. The changing credit environment is already affecting companies perceived to be among the safest and strongest in the world.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Learn more about Augusta Precious Metals and what they have to offer - including physical gold for IRA accounts - by going to:

The bond market just broke a major correlation at a particularly crucial moment. As the Warsh Fed sets out to stamp its mark on the market, the market is already stomping the narrative and doing so in a highly unusual way. UST & WTI have split up, with more than the Fed getting caught up in the burgeoning divorce. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your...

Is Kevin Warsh about to finally put money back in the Federal Reserve? That might sound like a strange question. After all, this is the Federal Reserve. It is supposed to be the center of the monetary system. Its officials set what they call monetary policy, testify before Congress about it, and issue statements filled with the word “monetary.” Yet, for decades, the Federal Reserve’s most important policy discussions have contained no information about actual money.

That may finally be starting to change.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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The divergence between oil and gas prices is now historic, and one simple calculation explains everything. That calculation is at a record high, and it’s not even close. What it shows is why gas remains so expensive and is likely to stay that way for some time even though prices have fallen substantially from their wartime peak. Even though demand for oil has plummeted, and I mean plunged in places like China, and it’s not all that great elsewhere. 

So why are gasoline and diesel still so expensive?

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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India is once again scrambling for dollars, kind of begging for them.  After spending months defending the rupee, the Reserve Bank of India is now offering generous support to banks to get them to raise foreign-currency deposits. They’re being encouraged to get creative with it, everything from creating new products to using new digital channels. And, of course, the old school way of just jacking up the interest rate offer. All designed to get dollars into Indian hands. “Begging” might be a strong word, but only barely.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Shocking CPI numbers for June. Plus a literal twist in the oil market which goes right along with them. 

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If you want to see The Four Economic Regimes, and How to Position Your Portfolio for Each One, sign up here 

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Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

I’ll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring toge...

What’s the difference between recession and depression? Most people understandably think a depression is just a really bad recession. But that’s not the case. These are in many ways two profoundly different circumstances. Think of it his way. A recession is a storm. A depression is a complete change in the climate. A recession is when the economy temporarily falls down. A depression is when it can’t really get back, realizing the old world is gone and maybe for good. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could a...

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Japan may have finally figured out why the yen keeps getting crushed. And no — it’s not because some hedge fund in New York borrowed a few billion yen and YOLO’d it into U.S. Treasuries. That’s the cartoon version of the carry trade. That’s the version financial media repeats because it sounds simple: borrow cheap yen, buy higher-yielding assets overseas, yen goes down. But that is not the real carry trade.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

PepsiCo just reported earnings. And buried inside a perfectly standard corporate press release was one of the most important sentences you'll hear about the American economy this year. CEO Ramon Laguarta said, and I'm quoting directly here: *"I think the consumer is worse than what we had anticipated, and it's driven mainly by gas prices."*

That's not a fringe analyst. That's the chief executive of one of the largest consumer goods companies on the planet, a company that sells beverages and snacks to hundreds of millions of Americans every single quarter, telling you directly: something has changed...

HSBC just did something that should make everyone in credit markets stop and ask one very uncomfortable question. If there is nothing to worry about with private credit…why is one of world’s biggest banks pulling back from funding the funds that make it work? According to reporting from the Financial Times, HSBC has told some private credit borrowers that it will not renew their credit facilities. It is also refusing to provide “back leverage” to riskier funds. In plain English, HSBC is pulling back bigtime.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Walmart is cutting prices on thousands of products, not doing the Fed’s inflation theory any favors. Coca-Cola. Pepsi. Laundry detergent. Lawn mowers. You name it. This is great news for consumers who have been hit with the gasoline shock. Here we have the biggest retailer in America lowering prices. The real story, though, is why Walmart is doing it. We’ve been warned by the markets and curves about what would happen once the tax refund money ran dry.  

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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We just got a couple major updates that are connect some more dots on what is the biggest story in the global economy, all connecting to China. The oil market has undergone a radical – and I mean radical – change over the past few weeks. It first showed up last Thursday and is still going her today. Earlier this morning, Saudi Arabia comes out with a big announcement it is cutting the benchmark price of its oil for the first time since 2020. Those two together implicate Chinese oil demand and therefore its economy. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Today, we’re looking at one of the most intense and surprising signals coming out of global markets right now: the oil curve has gone almost perfectly flat. That may sound technical, but it is a huge development. In a normal shortage environment, especially after the kind of historic supply disruption and record backwardation we just saw, near-term oil should trade at a sustained premium. Instead, in the space of just weeks, that curve has collapsed, twisting into a shape that is on the cusp of saying there’s too much oil.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van...

The private credit bust is now starting to spread into AI and the AI buildout which up to now has been mostly financed by these shadow banks. The reason for it spreading is simple – the run on the shadow banks hasn’t abated at all, with our favorite sad bird the latest to disclose laughably huge withdrawal requests. The danger for AI has always been the almost unlimited money it required to reach full capacity running out.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MOR...

There is no way to spin this, not that everyone won’t try. The June employment report did not just come in weak or just miss expectations. It wasn’t a little cooling after a decent stretch. No — the June jobs report strongly suggests the worst-case payback for the labor market is now unfolding.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Learn more about Augusta Precious Metals and what they have to offer - including physical gold for IRA accounts - by going to:

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Microsoft just announced another round of job cuts — thousands more layoffs — and almost immediately, the internet had its explanation ready. AI. “AI is taking the jobs.”  “White-collar work is being automated.” And look, that story is emotionally powerful. It feels like it explains everything. But it’s completely missing the point. And for many of these announcements, that is the point. <...

European banks are doing something that looks irrational, preparing for something big while the rest of the mainstream focuses on the wrong people. The European Central Bank just raised its policy rate a few weeks ago, and officials over there in Frankfurt are warning they may hike again as they’re still fixated on the inflation risk from the recent energy shock. The European banking system is not buying it, the inflation risk, the rate hikes, none of it. Literally not buying it. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold cou...

The Japanese yen just fell to a forty-year low, and this has everyone talking, the government worried, because no one really knows what it means. What makes this so important is not just the level of the exchange rate. It is the fact that this is happening after Japan already tried almost everything that was supposed to stop it. That is the real issue, the government is being run over by a currency with a real story tell. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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If you have a retirement account and you’ve been won...

Bitcoin just broke down again — falling below $60k to levels we haven’t seen in nearly two years. But here’s the strange part: this may not really be a Bitcoin story. Because if you pull up the chart of BlackRock you start to see something unexpected. Bitcoin and BlackRock stock haven’t just been moving in the same general direction…they’ve been tracking each other in a way that looks a lot less like coincidence, and a lot more like a shared warning signal.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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What if yo...

When most people hear the words “free market capitalism,” they immediately think of Wall Street. They picture stock traders yelling across a trading floor, financial news channels, quarterly earnings reports, and various asset prices flashing across a screen. And because that is the image people have in their heads, they often assume that capitalism means whatever happens in financial markets. Not even close. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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If you have a retirement account and you’ve been wondering whether crypto belongs inside it, BlockTrustIRA is something worth looking into. Most crypto IRA pla...

Gold is getting liquidated again. Silver, too. Why? The dollar is spiking. But why is the dollar spiking? Same reason TIPS are screaming and reinversion on the Treasury curve has become a very real possibility. The issue isn't those da*n dots, it's dollars. Ledger eurodollars and all these are nothing more than different perspectives of the same growing deflation tendencies. 

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Webinar June 2026: Why Smart Investors Keep Missing Every Major Economic Turning Point

It isn't that they're buying the wrong assets. They're using a broken map of the monetary system — and getting it...

The most important number in private credit right now is not a default rate. It’s not a dividend yield or the size of the market. It’s **16.8%**. That is how much of Apollo Debt Solutions’ outstanding shares investors asked the firm to buy back in the second quarter. The reason that number is such a big deal is because last quarter, redemption requests were already high at around **11%**.

So this is not fading or stabilizing. The bust is accelerating.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay yo...

Britain just lost another prime minister. Keir Starmer, the man who came to power in 2024 with one of the biggest election victories in modern British history, resigned today after less than two years in office. But this is not just some Westminster drama. The real question today is this: Are President Trump and Republicans in Congress watching? Are they paying attention? Are they next?

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Learn more about Augusta Precious Metals and what they have to offer - including physical gold for IRA accounts - by going to:<...

Swiss bond yields are almost back at zero. The key two-year instrument yields just a couple of basis points and is very likely going to be negative again relatively soon. As we know, Swiss interest rates have very little to do with Switzerland. As a global money center, this is where money goes when it doesn’t want to be anywhere else – even to the point international financials are willing to accept zero return to be there. 

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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If you have a retirement account and you’ve been wo...