Eurodollar University
Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.
WARNING: Canada’s Job Market Just COLLAPSED
Canadian payrolls were dismal in April, including the biggest two-month collapse in private jobs since the lockdowns. It isn't just sentiment. While pessimism has soared, results from around the real economy is backing that up with hard data. Not just Canada, also Mexico.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Jeremy Rudd Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2021062pap.pdf
Transcript Chair Powell Press Conference May 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdf
Bloomberg Canada Joblessness H...
The Bank of England Just Sent a MASSIVE Warning to the World
Former hardcore hawk, the Bank of England pulled ahead of the Federal Reserve by rejoining the global race to the bottom. And it did so with what is being called a weird three-way split. The split was neither weird nor much of one. Instead what BoE did - and why - has already shown up here in the US. The latest confirmation comes from the Fed's very own data where job fears have exploded for the same reason(s) BoE is acting.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bank of England MPR May 2025
https://www.b...
NEW Report Shows Global Banks Are Dangerously Overexposed to Risk
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Insiders are looking for the exits. Short selling sharks are circling. Regulated banks are majorly exposed to this credit segment, another one deep within the shadows. Could this explain why market signals remain near or at extremes? From swap spreads to gold ratios, there is deflationary everywhere in them and credit default swaps have cast their blame specifically toward banks.
Eurodollar Uni...
Credit Default Swaps Are SURGING, Here's What You Need To Know
US sovereign CDS prices are soaring, not relenting after jumping during April. While mainstream sources will say that's this dollar-ditching stuff, neither the track record for CDS nor empirical evidence agrees. Government credit default swap premiums are set by one factor, and it has everything to do with the banking system.
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Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin?
https://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp201402.pdf
MSCI The CDS Market’s View on US Default
https://www.msci.com/www/blo...
HOLY SH*T! The Global Currency Crisis Is Worse Than Anyone Expected
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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Another major safe haven currency has exploded higher, not just in early April but here in early May. It's gone so far already the local monetary authority has had to intervene. Over in Switzerland, the country report zero inflation for April. Along with the similar behavior of the franc, the Swiss central bank is looking at zero rates next month - if not ne...
BREAKING: Jobs Report Just Dropped — Here's What You Need to Know
The April employment report...wasn't what everything thought it was. Not even close. What has changed is the narrative surrounding what are shaky numbers all the way around. The question everyone is asking isn't if the labor market is "good enough", it's now whether it is "bad enough." Here's what the data actually says about that.
Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre
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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Japan Has Fallen: Here's What It Means for the World
Japan was, they said, on the cusp of generational shift. The real outlier in a growing tide of reversals, BoJ was still hiking still anticipating an inflationary recovery. It has all come crashing down, globally synchronized. But not before one final plot twist.
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BREAKING: Treasury Secretary Says Emergency Rate Cuts Needed NOW
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The Treasury Secretary spoke through the financial media to Jay Powell. He had a very simple message for the Fed Chair: pay attention to the 2s. And Ronald McDonald. It's not just the Treasury market. If only that was the case, there is also a close relationship - therefore strong warning - coming via the oil market, too. This is already why OPEC is...
BREAKING: Global GDP Released, Here's Everything You Need To Know
A slew of economic reports from around the biggest global economies. Starting with US GDP, then Mexico, Germany and Europe then finally some critical macro data from China. There is indeed a common thread running through all of them, and it has markets spooked: CtG hit a new multi-year low barely above the 2020 lows.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectations
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/adp-jobs-report-april-2025.html
Bloomberg Mexico Economy Narrowly Dodges Recession Amid US Trade Chaos
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/a...
Job Fear Just SURGED to Its Worst Level Since 2009
Another day, another crash; or crashes. Conference Board expectations plunged to their lowest level since 2011. Another Fed PMI plummets. Two-year Treasury yields hit their lows. All pointing to that Beveridge transition.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Conference Board Consumer Confidence April 2025
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Apr-2025
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Bloomberg Economists Say Trade War Makes US Recession Almost a Coin Flip
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-04-25/economists-say-trade-war-makes-us-recession-almost-a-coin-flip
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The Fed Quietly Admits Mass Layoffs Have Begun, And The Economy Is Falling Apart
If you were to go off of only data collected by the Federal Reserve on the economy, you'd be left with no other option than to see it at best on the doorstep of full-blown recession. Yet, officials argue inflation anyway. The real question is where all this information and evidence instead fits the "labor curve." Unfortunately, the Fed's numbers all fall on flat.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Fed Beige Book April 2025
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdf
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tm...
BREAKING: Southwest Airlines Say "The Recession Has Already Begun"
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While other airlines were pulling their forecasts afraid to tell the truth and preferring to hide under behind "uncertainty", Southwest's CEO bluntly stated there's a recession. And that's exactly what is starting to emerge from the Federal Reserve's very own contacts, thus why former FOMC hawks are now sounding incredibly dovish, the fundamentals of interest rates in all directions.
Eurodollar University's con...
The Global Economy Just Entered a Dangerous New Phase
Weakness in key Asian bellwether has authorities there panicking into bailouts, setting its central on course to be the next major to head into "historically" low interest rates. That's not all, there's already spillover from the tariff shock in China where reports show work stoppages and factory closings. And rates there are right back near record lows.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ChosunBiz South Korea's economy faces 0.2% GDP decline amid tariff and political turmoil
https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-policy/2025/04/24/O6H63WLPC5BHDE3HUEYUTF6UUM
South Korea Ministerial Meeting on Economic A...
Walmart Reveals Americans Have Hit Their Breaking Point
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Walmart isn't sitting on tariffs. They instead rolling back more prices understanding what Chipotle just found out the hard way. The burrito bowl restaurant reported its first sales decline since the lockdowns, and the reason why has everyone from airlines to Walmart scrambling.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Walmart Amps Up Discounts as Rivals Weigh Tariff-Driven Hikes
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U.S. URGENT: Banks Are Preparing for a Rate Collapse?
While the whole world seems convinced the rest of it is rotating away from Treasuries, the actual evidence unequivocally shows something very different. This isn't a one-time relationship, either. Instead, a deep fundamental basis that connects repo, interest rates foundations, global banks, and the recent deflationary developments.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Traders View Treasury Auctions as Litmus Test for Foreign Buyers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/us-treasury-auctions-offer-latest-clues-on-foreign-buyers-strike
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Something HUGE Just happened
Another day, another major warning this time once again from the Swiss. This one is a critical dollar signal. Even though the mainstream gets it completely backward, that diminish the significance of the surge. Plus, it is being corroborated by others along with changes to macro interpretations even among official bodies like the IMF.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
SNB's Martin Schlegel December 12, 2024
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-12-12/snb-s-schlegel-on-interest-rate-decision-negative-rates
IMF WEO April 2025
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025
https://www.eurodollar.university
...
URGENT: Tariffs Just Triggered a 64% Drop in Imports — This Is Just the Start
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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We're moving out of the theoretical impacts from tariffs and global weakness and into the reality of the situation. The first data from April is coming in from a variety of sources. China is seeing major reactions, as did South Korea. Hardly being spared, the response in Philly manufacturing was near-historic. Here comes the data for all those dependent.
Eurodollar University's Mon...
Foreigners Are Dumping Record Treasuries — Is This the End?!
Foreign governments are selling large quantities of Treasury securities, including the Chinese. Several commentators have therefore suggested there is a growing probability China devalues the yuan. While all of these results and possibilities are indeed related, not all foreigners are selling dollar assets. According to the same data, this group has been a buying hand over fist.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
You Won’t Believe What Just Happened to Interest Rates in Europe
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A return to historic low interest rates in Europe is now practically guaranteed. Chances for ultra-low and maybe even zero is becoming too much to ignore. More importantly, why Europe has become a leader of the pack in the race to the bottom.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
ECB Press Conference April 2025
https://www.ecb.europa.e...
Every Major Crisis Started JUST Like This… And It’s Happening Again
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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There are way too many critical financial and monetary signals at crisis levels right now. The 2008 or 2020 comparisons are all over the place. The latest to reach these numbers is derived from silver. By itself, what it has done is alarming. Combined with everything else performing similarly, it's too much to ignore. The reason why is what all these together really mean, exactly wh...
Japan is PLUNGING and it’s Quickly Spreading to the Rest of the World
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A big move in Japan today, with yields dropping and the yen rising. Both were matched by some truly grim developments and warnings from around the world, everything from AI to the Bank of Canada's extreme case and then some truly grim results in New York. Or, exactly what JGBs and JPY are signaling themselves.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro A...
Central Banks Are Being Forced To Lower Interest Rates Now
If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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Central bankers all over the world kept saying, nah, we’re not going to do it this time. They weren’t going to race to the bottom, cutting their interest rates back down to historical lows. And the data keeps coming in that says, yeah, you are. Troubling developments along these lines as Europe goes more for the bottom.
Eurodollar University's Money...
Ray Dalio Just Warned of a Potential Financial Crisis (Here's What You MUST Know)
Ray Dalio says he believes the economy is already on the edge of a full-blown recession already, and he's hardly alone. However, Dalio also told Meet The Press his main worry is that recession economy getting slammed by a crisis. While Mr. Dalio means persistently higher interest rates, we know that's not what the real markets are pricing even if ultimately this would lead to exactly what he's warning about.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
NBC News Ray Dalio MtP
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/billionaire-investor-ray-dalio-is-worried-about-something-worse-than-recession-full-interview-237257285807
Bloomberg Bessent Is Wrong About B...
Consumer Confidence Just COLLAPSED, Again...
Consumer confidence plummeted to second lowest on record for a series that dates back to 1952 as American workers are afraid for their jobs in way the economy hasn't seen since the worst months of 2009. If that wasn't enough, both consumer and producer price indexes for March declined into deflation...in spite of tariffs.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
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Everyone Thinks the Dollar Is Crashing — They’re Missing the Real Risk
DXY fell to its lowest value in more than two years. That means the dollar is crashing, right? Everyone says so, but when it comes to the dollar or anything related to the monetary system what everyone says is rarely ever so. The dollar IS going nuts, at least that part's right.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Reuters US dollar stranglehold on global FX sets stage for euro parity: Reuters poll
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/us-dollar-stranglehold-global-fx-sets-stage-euro-parity-2025-01-08/
Reuters Next up for markets: A crisis of confidence in the dollar<...
WARNING: Something Just Broke in the Financial System (Again)
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One of the most critical and dependable monetary signals we have utterly crashed this week. While other financial markets struggle to regain their footing, this one says there's more disorder still to come along with the negative consequences from it in the real economy. And to punctuate how high the possibilities are, the BLS reported a disturbingly negative CPI for March.
Eur...
URGENT: This Could Trigger A Full-Blown Global Liquidity Crisis
Why are Treasury yields soaring when they should be falling on flight to safety? This is the telltale sign of something we're not supposed to talk about or even recognize. As clear as day, the Treasury market's supposed breakdown explains everything else that's happening alongside it: why there are liquidations and chaos seemingly in every direction.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Basis Trade/Hedge Fund Bailout
https://youtu.be/MF3B0puKkxU
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HOLY SH*T! Larry Fink Just Revealed the Truth About the Economy
Downgrades are coming in from all over the place, this one from America's top CEOs. Worse than that, critical segments of the bond market wholeheartedly agree with the increasingly dire assessments, making multiyear lows of their own. Moreover, the latest data on consumer credit fans the flames of ongoing liquidations.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC CEOs think the U.S. is ‘probably in a recession right now,’ says BlackRock’s Larry Fink
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/ceos-think-the-us-is-probably-in-a-recession-right-now-says-blackrocks-larry-fink.html
Bloomberg Goldman Boosts Recession Risk, Brings Forward Fed Rate-Cut Call
https://www.bloombe...
Asia Just Triggered the Next Wave of Liquidations
Today was Asia's turn to get pummeled by margin calls, distressed sales, even liquidations. Within all those, there are growing signs of monetary deflation. First, the key role Japan played in what happened. Then, an abrupt selloff in Treasuries which left the mainstream shaking its collective head. Instead, a telltale sign all its own.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Asian Stocks Tumble Most Since 2008 on Global Recession Worries
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/asian-stock-benchmarks-drops-most-in-14-years-on-tariff-concerns
Bloomberg China Stocks Suffer ‘Panic Selling’ as Tariff War Escalates
https://www.bloom...
Markets Are Crashing for a Reason Everyone Missed
Market meltdowns took center stage and attention away from March payroll estimates. They were overshadowed by a rise in unemployment which further cemented growing financial concerns the economy has already fallen into the bad case. That point has previously been raised by a key factor almost everyone had missed.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Markets Are PANICKING as Interest Rates COLLAPSE Globally
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Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The ENTIRE Global Economy Just Entered Recession
Downgrade fever is here. It's coming in from private sources as well as central banks, in the US as well as outside of it. The global economy's loss of momentum has become too much to ignore any longer. While that just means everyone will blame tariffs, all those are doing is waking everyone up to what's been happening for some time already.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Bloomberg Fed’s Goolsbee Warns of Tariff-Induced Pullback in Spending
https://www.bloomberg.com/new...
This Invisible Threat Could Bring Down the Entire Financial System
The selloff in the riskiest corners of the credit market has been significant over the past month, yet there are worries it is nowhere near enough. Some have called it the financial system's gray swan, the most glaring inconsistency nearly everyone is simply ignoring or trying to paper over. As the economy deteriorates - with more evidence today - the risk to the system only gets bigger and louder.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg US Recession Fear Raises ‘Gray Swan’ Risk for Bond Investors
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-01/us-recession-worries-raise-gray-swan-risk-for-bond-investors
...
The AI Bubble Just BURSTS, And It's Sending a MASSIVE Warning to the Entire Economy
There are growing signs the AI bubble has indeed been a bubble and it may be reversing. That's not great for stocks, obviously, but the potential goes way beyond plaguing equities. There are direct impacts as well as, most importantly, the combination with other negative factors producing a confluence of too many headwinds.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Microsoft Abandons Data Center Projects, TD Cowen Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-26/microsoft-abandons-more-data-center-projects-td-cowen-says
Bloomberg Alibaba’s Tsai Warns of ‘Bubble’ in AI Data Center Buildout
https://www.bloomberg.com/new...
Something Really Strange Just Happened With This Economic Data
With recession fears still growing, the government just reported strange results for a key set of economic data. And it's contradicted by a range of other reports, starting with more retailer warnings like the one from Lululemon about store traffic.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Lululemon Plunges With Outlook Hurt by US Consumer Worries
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-27/lululemon-s-us-struggles-weigh-on-sales-outlook-for-coming-year
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BREAKING: The Fed Is Preparing for the Next Financial Crisis
Why are senior researchers and former officials urging the Fed to create a hedge fund bailout? At first, this seems to be about the Treasury market and concerns tied to March 2020. It doesn't take too long, however, to see what's really going on here.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Brookings Treasury market dysfunction and the role of the central bank
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/treasury-market-dysfunction-and-the-role-of-the-central-bank/
Bloomberg Fed Urged to Explore Hedge Fund Bailout Tool for Basis Trade
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-27/fed-urged-to-mull-a-hedge-fund-bailout-facility-for-basis-trades
OFR Hedge F...
Europe’s Banks Just Sent a MASSIVE Warning to The World
Historic bond buying by European banks kept up again in February. The two-month binge is only surpassed by April and May 2020. At the same time, no lending to speak of, banks being totally defensive despite rate cuts. The implications are enormous given the background for 2025.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
You can watch the replay of our last webinar going over the various scenarios for the global economy:
https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1
Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer for its subscriptions and memberships:
https://www.eur...
We NEED a Crash to Fix the Economy (I'm Not Joking)
You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1
Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer for its subscriptions and memberships:
https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer
Why on earth would anyone say we need a serious financial and economic crisis? Simple: it might be the only way to avoid a lot worse. We've had two so far in the last almost twenty years that got us nowhere; worse than nowhere. If nothing else, maybe third time's a charm.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis<...
BREAKING: Data Shows Consumers Are Terrified of Jobs & Incomes
You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1
Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer:
https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offer
Consumer confidence collapsed in March, at the same time data on services industries showed much the same. This dramatic loss of momentum is coming up seemingly everywhere, to the point it has Wall Street taking the R-word more seriously than at any time since 2020. Not for nothing, that's what some of these datapoints are looking like.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
You Won’t Believe What FedEx Just Revealed About Consumers
You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1
FedEx warned that the US economy is now the biggest constraint on the world, experiencing what the shipper currently estimates is a very serious round of "uncertainty." However, incoming data - not to mention the dollar - shows how the situation is becoming more - not less - certain, with a whole host of updates today. "Uncertainty" simply means "we don't like how this looks."
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
CNBC FedEx cuts f...
