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There was action yet again at the Fed’s repo window today. A few more billion borrowed. But that’s now the fourth time over the last five trading days. These are more signs of tightening monetary conditions and if this does continue it will lead to the next QE from the Fed. The word that keeps coming up the past few months is escalation. 

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Why is copper-to-gold so ugly and thoroughly deflationary? What's happening right now inside China is one key part of it. After a small artificial rebound earlier this - where have we heard that before - Chinese bank lending has fallen even more sharply this summer adding yet another layer to the tremendous deceleration we keep seeing across China this summer. Retail sales fell yet again and investment is crashing. 

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In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a dis...

Even I am surprised at how quickly this has escalated. We got a big-time warning from the oil market earlier in the week. Whenever we see these things show up, usually there’s a little back and forth, in and out, the thing starts out as a little blip and stays that way for awhile. Then, maybe, you get a bigger move much later on. Not this time. The oil curve blew way past all of that in just a few days.

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What if your gold could actually pa...

Two US regional banks rocked the markets with more potential loan losses tied to private credit and shadow banks. But it is NOT really about them or the scale of those defaults; they are relatively tiny. It's what continues to be uncovered, the common COLLATERAL thread in every single one so far. Combined with a very precarious macroeconomic and monetary background, it's explosive. 

They are encompassed by the secrets behind the financial and monetary signals we continue to highlight and expose here at EDU. Watch our most recent webinar replay to start seeing the truth hiding in p...

Silver has gone absolutely vertical, even more than gold has. There is an historic squeeze going on in the silver market, centered in London. It started out driven by gold but the whole thing has been upended by imbalances in supply and the locations from where demand is coming from. How far can silver go? What’s really going on with it? And what should we expect next? Why does the matter for a whole lot more than the precious metals market? 

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The secrets behind these and other fin...

With one quote, JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon created a mini-firestorm even if in this case, anyway, he was just saying what everyone is thinking. On JPMs earnings call yesterday, Dimon reportedly said, “I probably shouldn’t say this but when you see one cockroach there are probably more” in relation to the bankruptcies that have popped up recently. 

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A big signal we - and the whole market - have been waiting for was triggered. Better still, there is no ambiguity with this one. The oil curve has flipped for the first time in years in what is a very clear downturn signal. They call it a supply glut when there is no mistaking it's all about demand.

It’s not just the $2.3 billion that allegedly simply vanished; it’s how and maybe most important of all, why. Second guessing collateral this way does not end well. Especially since this does not appear to be a one-off case of embezzlement and outright theft, rather a relatively large company which made some bad choices pressured into doing so by the economy and given the opportunity by less than ideal protections and security. 

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Crytpo saw its biggest liquidations in history Friday when Trade Wars 2.2 flared up. Commodities were also pounded, bonds bigtime bid, even stocks sent significantly lower. Tariffs aren't really the issue here, either, as a confluence of negatives have been sapping sentiment for the past few weeks.

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This is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET. To help you begin to unlearn the garbage that Economics has taught you and the financial media keeps repeating day after day after day. We’re going to...

The growing macro bust in housing has become serious enough even the Fed is letting the public know officials are talking about it. I keep telling you that when central bankers see it too, you know it isn’t good. The Federal Reserve’s policymaking body, the FOMC, released the minutes of its meeting last month, the one where policymakers decided to dip back into the Pringles can with a single twenty five-bp rate cut. 

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This is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a webinar on Tuesday October 14, at 6pm ET...

Germany’s auto production absolutely crashed, falling by almost 20% in just a single month. This becomes the latest stark warning about the direction of the global economy coming from the car business. And that report on production was corroborated by Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, Ferrari, all of them reporting results and forecasts this week that have sent their stocks plunging. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your na...

Another major central bank panicked today into a 50 bps rate cut, just as markets have been predicting. Not only that, officials at that bank said they’re ready for more as ultra-low rates are back within reach already. The Pringles can is far from empty even though central banks around the world would like you to believe they are in a good place. On the contrary, rate cuts really are like pringles – once central bankers start they’re finding everywhere they can’t stop.    

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This is all exactly why Eurodollar...

Repo fails have jumped to more than $320 billion as of the final full week in September, the highest since the very start of January. More importantly, the timing. While there are technical reasons for rising fails, they have been increasing since the first week in August, right when the July payroll report came out. There’s also been substantial selling of foreign reserve assets, an enormous amount which likewise is timed to the release of payroll estimates. 

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This is all exactly why Eurodollar University is holding a web...

OPEC this past weekend agreed to raise production into a falling market, putting it on the edge of confirming a major worldwide downturn. This is why, despite the crude cartel not increasing supply as much as feared, oil prices didn’t really react. There are far greater problems plaguing the energy markets, including tightening dollar conditions which go right along with this major market warning. 

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
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These recent bankruptcies have garnered close attention from the marketplace because they represent the very real possibility serious cracks have already weakened credit markets...to the point even the stock market (part of it, anyway) is taking a hard look. Ally, Bread Financial, Affirm, even Capital One, they've all see their stocks plummet. There's more here than it seems because of all the noise about share indexes and their own record highs. Everyone has ignored job losses, until now that is. 

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This is all exactly why E...

Like Amazon, now Walmart and Target are holding similar “fall” savings events promising to offer big savings. All three of them know the consumer economy is in deep trouble, thus the overemphasis on savings. But it’s not just what these retailers are doing for customers, it’s what they aren’t doing for workers. According to a range of sources, including the retailers themselves, they are not hiring. 

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Money from around the world continues to pour into Swiss bond markets, driving yields there down below zero and keeping them that way. Because Switzerland remains a key global money center in the eurodollar world, this kind of heightened demand for safety is directly related to rising worries about the rest of the world. Moreover, the Swiss curve is an indication of what we should expect from global rates moving forward.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
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This week has seen one oil company after another announce major layoffs. The oil curve is within sight of flipping and wholesale gasoline prices are only a penny above their lowest since 2021. Why? The answer was all over ADP's private payroll report for September. 

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The latest report on jobs changes everything. The hiring rate in August dropped to its lowest level since April of 2020. April 2020. It’s another clear sign that the labor market is visiting Dr. Beveridge and right in time for Amazon Prime Days which begin a week from now. Consumer confidence fell sharply here for September in even more new data, with workers reporting they also feel job availability is at a multi-year low, so it’s not just in the high level data, this thing is also making waves on the ground. 

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What is going on in the auto world? First, Tricolor goes bankrupt. Then parts supplier First Brands follows them. CarMax reports dismal earnings. Even Germany's Bosch decided to lay off another 13,000 workers. It's not just a canary in the coal mine, there's a whole flock - or fleet - of them. 

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns...

Companies are throwing trillions of dollars chasing the latest fad at the worst possible time. Even hedge fund insiders are sounding alarms over the collision between macro reverse and bubble building mania. Bigger than the dot-coms. 

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In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on.

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Everyone has been abuzz about Tricolor's bankruptcy. The subprime auto...

The dollar is starting to move more aggressively, driving higher and crossing key thresholds in a whole host of currency exchanges. Not only that, this current “strengthening” is highly synchronized. Both of those factors, the synchronization and breaching multiple ranges, are beginning to more strongly point to the next stage in this ongoing cycle. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting i...

There are growing concerns - and a growing pile of evidence and reports - indicating the *shadow* banking system is suppressing potential losses for no legitimate reason. Here we examine where they are coming from and what the latest data shows. 

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Eurodollar University Memberships: What is a Eurodollar University membership? It’s where understanding the monetary world isn’t a mystery—it's a method.

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Now that the Federal Reserve is back to...

A sad report as Argentina's badly-needed chainsaw is running into a bigger one - the eurodollar. President Milie was forced to admit the market is in panic-mode as the peso plunges in a way that's all-too-familiar for eurodollar watchers. Push comes to shove, the latter simply has the biggest chainsaw and it is using the thing that the world needs to be watching carefully. 

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your...

Foreigners continue their epic buying binge in USTs and US$ assets, totally defying the narrative everyone around the world is ditching America. Despite the intent of so many to make this political, there is nothing political about this, purely economics (small "e"). We keep more evidence and data showing what those really are, and foreigners know it only too well. 

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Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Theme
In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly The...

For the first time ever, the Bank of Japan is selling stocks out of its vast portfolio. The announcement shocked the markets though mostly the media. Is this what it seems to be, or does the Japanese government have a trick up its sleeve? A crystal clear answer can be found among Japan's households as this is one of the best examples ever of modern "monetary" policy. 

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You s...

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Another grim stat from US real estate, as plans to build houses slid to the lowest since May 2020. There are more homebuilders cutting prices than at any other time since, yes, 2020. But at the...

What a massive mess. No clear direction. Dots all over he place. And that's just the start. We've got Canada, too. Replay of FOMC decision livestream as Pringles win again.

China's yield curve is being reshaped in a way that has created confusion across the spectrum. Even policymakers at the PBOC are talking about the need to do something. However, market behavior is consistent with what we're seeing around the rest of the world and how it all relates to China finding a way out of its mess and hitting upon a real recovery. 

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For the first time ever, French bond spreads are higher than those seen in Italy (both compared to Germany). This isn't just about "fiscal consolidation" worries and France's government budget, the real issue behind everything is economic differentials. Those need to be turned around and soon else France risks being the new, well, Italy. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitti...

The oil business is heading for a big bust, putting Texas in the crosshairs. While that's obviously not good for the economy as a whole, energy does tend to be a leading indicators and when the jobs starting being lost in the space in a big way it's a big red flag. Consumers know it, given what was also just reported from them, too. 

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre

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In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disci...

Since the July payroll report came out, something seems to have snapped out there in the offshore eurodollar world. Two key sources are signaling a turn toward substantial tightening. Here we go over what those signals are, how to read them in context, and what they mean going forward. 

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If you want to see what you've been missing - and it's A LOT - then join us at Eurodollar University. Our memberships have got you covered where it comes to mastering monetary mechanics. You won't find this anywhere e...

What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.
Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider

Yesterday's 10-year note auction produced something we've never seen before, and it totally upended everyone's expectations if not more. With the macro climate being what it is, the 10s sale was a "victim" of the incr...

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It wasn't actually the record downgrade to payrolls that stood out the most. Far more important, the QCEW confirms there is a very good chance a recession began LAST YEAR. Not just the forgot...

A record downward revision to payrolls adds to the evidence the US labor market is in dire shape while also heading in the wrong direction. In this video, we go over not just those details but also look ahead at the possible financial consequences should conditions continue to deteriorate in the way they appear to be. What else might be triggered by job losses in the real economy? More than a few possibilities. 

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?
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Gold keeps soaring and not because of inflation. We know this without any doubt because as copper prices remain stuck, rising bullion against it has crashed the copper-to-gold ratio down to RECORD LOWS. That isn't about expectations for a crash, instead the market is expressing rising probabilities as to the future. One in which the latest data from FRBNY on job finding expectations fits only too well. 

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There was one key stat from this week which helps explain the increasingly desperate state of the US labor market, offering background behind the "unexpectedly" weak payroll numbers from Friday. August's estimate was its lowest since...May 2009. Given the connection to employment, it all fits together with so many other signals including record low copper-to-gold. Yep, record low. 

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Payrolls were ugly, a big miss for August on top of revisions to June which pushed the monthly change negative. If that wasn't enough, a rising unemployment rate after a crash in full-time employment. Plus, a plunge in Canadian payrolls punctuate the turning point for North American jobs. Rates were down sharply, no surprise. 

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