On the Middle East with Amberin Zaman

Hansen, who spent more than a decade reporting from Turkey for The New York Times Magazine, is the author of a widely acclaimed new book on the country under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. She explains how his core supporters are feeling betrayed by the Turkish leader and how his reign might yet end.

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Selim Koru, founder of the Kulturkampf Substack, argues that Turkey’s World Cup loss is emblematic of the failure of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s civilizational project and may prove to be a milestone in the unraveling of his 24-year reign.

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President Donald Trump sought Kurdish support in efforts to topple Iran’s regime, only to drop them like hot potatoes amid pressure from Turkey, a key NATO ally. Now, after signing a peace deal with Tehran, Trump has left Iran’s Kurds more isolated than ever. But Dutch scholar Wladimir van Wilgenburg says the agreement will not stop the Kurds from continuing their struggle for recognition and rights.

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Tigran Grigoryan, director of the Center for Democracy and Security, a Yerevan-based think tank, argues that the road ahead for Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is fraught with risk. Pashinyan won by a wide margin in the June 7 election, but failed to clinch the super majority needed to push through peace with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Economic pressure from Russia is adding to his woes. 

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Somalia is home to Turkey’s largest overseas military base. It has signed an oil exploration and production deal with Ankara that has sparked protests from the opposition. The Middle East Institute’s Gonul Tol unpacks the drivers of Turkey’s Africa policy, noting that Turkish engagement comes at a cost.

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Kurds in northeast Syria have suffered significant territorial and political setbacks, while Kurds in Turkey continue to lack meaningful rights. A growing number of Kurdish voices are blaming the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and its imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan for what they see as betrayal. However, Kurdish expert Aliza Marcus argues that such accusations overlook the broader regional and political context in which these losses have unfolded.

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With no resolution in sight, the conflict is taking a heavy toll on Saudi Arabia amid widening fissures with its Gulf neighbor the United Arab Emirates.

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The Iran conflict is entering its second month with no resolution, despite a ceasefire extension announced by the United States on April 8.

Iranian negotiators follow Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, says academic Hassan Ahmadian, warning that continued US strikes on Iranian ships enforcing a Strait of Hormuz blockade could reignite the war.

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Lebanon faces escalating violence and mounting displacement as Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah rocket attacks intensify ahead of planned US-backed talks in Washington on April 14.

I speak with Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salame, who says Hezbollah disarmament by force is an illusion, warns the Washington meeting is not yet real negotiations, and cautions that continued escalation could further destabilize Lebanon.

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“The enemy of my enemy is my friend,” as the old adage goes — a logic Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, put into practice by offering his military’s expertise in countering Iranian drones to the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates during a regional tour that concluded Sunday, as the Atlantic Council’s Yevgeniya Gaber noted.

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Iranian-American academic Vali Nasr says rising civilian deaths and the destruction of iconic sites such as the Qajar-era Golestan Palace are turning even the most anti-regime Iranians against the US‑Israeli war, which many now see as a threat to the nation itself.

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On Feb. 28, the first day of the war in Iran, at least 175 people — most of them children — were killed when a U.S. missile struck a girls’ school in Minab. Since then, the civilian death toll has steadily risen, turning even some of the regime’s most ardent critics against the conflict, according to Skylar Thompson, deputy director of Human Rights Activists in Iran.

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Russia has close military and diplomatic ties with Iran but it also has cordial relations with Iran's foes, notably Israel. At the same time, it is bogged down by its own war with Ukraine. So how much actual assistance can it provide to Iran as it seeks to withstand Israel and the United States?

Iranian American academic Nicole Grajewski unpacks the complexities.

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President Donald Trump says he has ruled out plans to ally with armed Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, after previously suggesting he would like them to help overthrow the Iranian regime. However, Asso Hassan Zadeh, a prominent figure in the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran, says there is reason to believe otherwise and that such an alliance may still be on the table.

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Iranian political scientist Hamidreza Azizi explains that a nuclear deal with the United States would be widely opposed by Iranians. He says trust in the regime has been irreparably damaged following the mass killings of protesters.

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Efforts to reach a diplomatic solution to the US-Iranian standoff over Tehran’s nuclear program are continuing apace. However, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains implacably opposed to any concessions.

Iranian historian Arash Azizi discusses the suffering of ordinary Iranians and outlines the scenarios that could unfold as the regime faces its gravest threat since the 1979 Revolution.

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The Kurds of northeast Syria have suffered a series of humiliating setbacks over the past month, losing more than 80% of the territory they once controlled to central government forces. A US-mediated truce averted a potential bloodbath. Meghan Bodette of the Kurdish Peace Institute says new opportunities may be emerging, but ordinary Kurds expect their leaders to acknowledge the mistakes that led them here.

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UK historian Christopher de Bellaige says Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will fight till the bitter end as will the formidable Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp. But their success is no longer guaranteed amid threats of US intervention and a new generation of young and fearless protestors bent on their fall.

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A fifth round of US-brokered talks between Israel and Syria began in Paris on Jan. 5. Elizabeth Tsurkov, a senior fellow at the New Lines Institute, explains why Israel may finally yield to US pressure and sign a security agreement with Syria’s new Islamist government — while remaining unlikely to extend the same protections to Syria’s Kurds as it does to the Druze.

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Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE are escalating anew in Yemen. Al-Monitor senior editor Joyce Karam says the clash is real, leaving the Trump administration torn between its top regional allies.

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Murad Ismael, a prominent Yazidi activist who has worked tirelessly to draw attention to his people’s ongoing plight following one of the first genocides of the 21st century, is vowing to change the way politics are practiced in Iraq.

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Chatham House senior fellow Renad Mansour explains why Iraq remains even more vital for Iran in the wake of its humiliating 12-day conflict with Israel, and how renewed US interest in Iraq with the appointment of a new envoy is adding to the heat.

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On the eve of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's historic meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington on Nov. 10, Al-Monitor spoke with former US Ambassador Barbara Leaf, the first senior US official to formally meet with him after the fall of the Assad regime.

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The fall of el-Fasher to the Rapid Support Forces, amid renewed allegations of UAE backing, raises fears of further civilian massacres in a regional struggle for Sudan’s gold and Red Sea ports. Sudanese analyst Kholood Khair examines the forces — and the toll — behind the violence.

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Vittorio Maresca di Serracapriola, lead sanctions expert at Karam Shaar Advisory, unpacks the current status of international sanctions over Syria and what they mean for its people after 14 years of civil war and 60 years of repression by the Assad regime.

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Weam Fadul, a Sudanese feminist and activist, blames outside forces for fueling the conflict and says the Sudanese people should be left to decide their own fate. 

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US President Donald Trump's foray into the Caucasus is among his most successful so far, says analyst Eric Hacopian of Armenia's CivilNet.

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Turkey and the interim Syrian government fiercely oppose Kurdish self-rule. Researcher Meghan Bodette argues that the current dynamics will force them into changing tack, with all sides reaping the benefits of compromise.

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Saudi Arabia has emerged as a critical ally for Syria's new interim government. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman played a key role in getting the United States to lift many sanctions on Syria. Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa has made it clear that he wants the kingdom to have a big say in his country's affairs that would go beyond helping it finance its reconstruction. However, as Saudi researcher Aziz Algahashian explains, Saudi Arabia is not giving him a carte blanche.

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Last week’s arrest of Lahur Talabani in a violent raid that left four dead set a dangerous precedent, one that could undermine PUK leader Bafel Talabani and the Kurdistan region as a whole, says independent analyst Shayan Talabany.

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Jalel Harchaoui, an expert on Gulf and North African power dynamics, unpacks the evolving relationship between the two regional rivals. While ties have improved dramatically since 2021, he warns that lingering rivalries across Africa could reignite tensions.

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Haian Dukhan, a leading expert on Syria’s tribal dynamics, unpacks the stakes in the latest surge of violence between Sunni Bedouin tribes and the Druze minority in Suwayda.

Retaining tribal support is essential for the country’s post-Assad regime. The government’s failure to quell clashes that have left more than 1,000 people dead has ignited Sunni anger and emboldened the Kurdish minority, which has forged its own Sunni tribal alliances.

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On July 11, a group of PKK fighters burned their weapons in a ceremony marking the end of their forty-year-long armed campaign against the Kurdish state. Aliza Marcus, a leading expert on the militant group, says it is too early to determine whether the PKK will abandon armed struggle completely and that much depends on what steps Ankara is prepared to take to meet Kurdish demands.

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Professor Mohsen Milani, the author of the recently published, "Iran's Rise and Rivalry with the U.S. in the Middle East," explains that airpower alone cannot dislodge Iran's clerical regime. With Iran capable of relaunching its nuclear program, the risk of further Israeli attacks is real. The outcome would likely be regional chaos. 

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Nacho Amor is the European Parliament's rapporteur on Turkey. Speaking to Al-Monitor, he blasts EU leaders for their silence over Turkey's appalling human rights record, including the jailing of more than a dozen democratically elected mayors from the main opposition CHP party. He also warns the country's Kurds — who are in the process of negotiating constitutional changes with the government that would allow the country's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, more powers in exchange for Kurdish rights — that without democracy for all, there can be none for a few.

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Israel’s conflict with Iran has wiped out dozens of top military leaders and scientists and inflicted major damage on critical facilities, yet the regime has survived.

The Iranian people have not risen up; to the contrary, they have rallied around the flag amid a surge in anti-Western sentiment. However, the regime will need to embark on serious reforms to keep the people on its side, says Iranian American academic Vali Nasr

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As the Iran-Israel conflict enters its fifth day, there are growing signs that the United States will intervene on the side of its Israeli allies. Iranian scholar Hamidreza Azizi says Israel is aiming for regime change or to turn Iran into a failed state.

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Ankara's latest effort to end a four decades long Kurdish insurgency is opaque and is full of risks and opportunities for Turkey and Syria's Kurds says lawmaker Cengiz Candar.

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Talmiz Ahmad, a former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, explains why Gulf nations led by Saudi Arabia tilt in favor of India despite long-running ties with Muslim Pakistan. Pakistan's refusal to join Saudi Arabia in its war against the Houthis — and a jihadi attack on Mumbai in 2008 — were a tipping point, he says.

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Charles Lister, the head of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute in Washington, argues that after five months in power Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, the ultimate pragmatist, is adjusting to the complexity of governing his ethnically diverse and fractured country. This involves striking deals with the Kurds and Druze that fly in the face of the rigidly centralized model he once espoused. And contrary to popular belief he is not a "Turkish puppet,” Lister says.

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