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🌧️ Weather: Heavy rain drenched Iowa and eastern Nebraska, with Omaha receiving nearly 5 inches and Lincoln more than 3 inches. ☀️ Dry weather is expected through the weekend and into next week, but flooding and saturated soils will continue delaying harvest.

🌵 Drought Monitor: Rain improved drought conditions across parts of the Upper Midwest and High Plains, while dryness worsened in Ke...

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🌽 Corn futures tumbled Wednesday after USDA pegged September 1 stocks at 2.095 billion bushels, up 35% from a year ago and well above every trade guess. 📉 Dec26 corn plunged about 21 cents to $5.01, while soybean and wheat stocks both came in below expectations but still couldn't stop beans and wheat from slipping lower.

📊 USDA will now have to "solve" for that 2...

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📈 The 30-year Treasury yield just blew past 5.61%—its highest level since 2002! War-driven inflation fears, heavy government borrowing, and a hawkish Fed are all piling on, with markets pricing in roughly a 50% chance of another rate hike in October.

💬 Jim Iuorio breaks down the three forces pushing long-term rates higher—the AI boom pulling money out of bonds, fe...

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🌱 Soybean futures plunged Monday, with Nov26 beans falling nearly 31 cents to close around $12.88/bu after US soybeans were left out of the US-China tariff reduction deal. 📉 Corn slipped ~5 cents to $5.23/bu on spillover weakness and a firmer dollar, while wheat also finished lower despite both grains getting tariff relief.

🇨🇳 The American Soybean Association voiced disappointment that soybeans...

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🤝 The US and China agreed to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of nonsensitive goods, including US ag exports, and extended their trade truce until mid-January. 🌐 The two sides also launched an AI dialogue and agreed no country should impose tolls on international waterways, an apparent jab at Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz.

🇨🇳 China released a lis...

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🤝 US-China Talks: Xi Jinping and President Trump met in Washington, but the meeting produced no major breakthroughs on tariffs, AI, or ag trade. Hopes for China dropping its 10% retaliatory soybean tariff or new details on its $17 billion ag purchase commitment went unmet, and grains are trading lower. 📉

🚢 Black Sea Shipping: Zelenskiy says India, Turkey, Egypt, and other M...

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🤝 The US and China agreed to extend their trade-war truce by two months to January 10, giving both sides more time to reach a broader deal. 🇨🇳 Treasury Secretary Bessent said this week's Trump-Xi meeting could bring announcements on ag purchases, along with a plan to set aside $30 billion each in US and Chinese exports for tariff relief.

🌽 Grain and oilseed prices slipped ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi summit, with Dec26 corn dropping nearly 8 cen...

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🌽 Iowa's corn and soybean harvests are running well behind schedule, with just 4% of corn and 2% of soybeans harvested after persistent rain left farmers only two days suitable for fieldwork last week. 🌧️ The state averaged 3.6 inches of rain last week, and more is on the way, with the heaviest amounts forecast for western Iowa.

📉 Corn futures slipped about...

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🌽 Corn futures rallied Monday, with Dec26 gaining ~16¢ to close at $5.43/bu. The move was driven by hopes for stronger Chinese demand and rain slowing Corn Belt harvest.

🌱 Soybeans jumped ahead of Thursday's Trump-Xi meeting, with Nov26 up ~25¢ to $13.28/bu. Traders are betting the talks could lead China to drop its 10% tariff and let private buyers start purc...

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⛽ Diesel Prices – National average diesel hit a record $6.51/gal on Sunday, up 76% year-over-year, with off-road diesel nearing $6.00/gal in many areas. Fuel costs are adding $11/acre to corn and $7/acre to soybean budgets, and USDA Secretary Rollins hints at coming relief announcements. 💸

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump-Xi Meeting – Trump and Xi meet in Washington Thursday to tackle AI, trade, Taiwan, and the Iran wa...

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🫘 Soybean meal ripped to a new contract high of $372.90 before settling at $368.70 as rain threatens to delay Corn Belt harvest just as crush plants scramble for beans. 📈 Corn and wheat both settled lower, with wheat pressured by hopes for a Russia-Ukraine deal that could ease Black Sea shipping.

⚔️ Trump is weighing whether to resume large-scale attacks on I...

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🌧️ Heavy rain is soaking the Corn Belt again, with parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin bracing for up to 10 inches through the weekend. Harvest delays and flooding are expected as fieldwork stalls across Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

💰 The Fed hiked interest rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase in over three years. Ene...

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🌱 NOPA August Crush Data – US soybean crush hit an 11-month low of 205.456 million bushels, down 5.2% from July, but still an all-time record for August. Soybean oil stocks tumbled to their lowest since November 2024 at 1.201 billion pounds, missing trade estimates. 📉

📈 Grains Rally – Soybeans surged nearly 15 cents to $13.19/bushel as the smaller-than-expected crush lit a fire under meal futures, w...

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🌱 CHS Announces Major Wisconsin Soybean Plant: CHS is building a ~$700 million soybean processing facility near Evansville, WI, capable of crushing 80 million bushels annually and boosting the company's total capacity by more than two-thirds. 🏗️ Set to open in fall 2028, the plant would theoretically process ~66% of Wisconsin's entire soybean crop.

🇨🇳 China Passes Halfway Mark on Soybean Purchases: China booked at...

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🌽 USDA cut its national corn yield to 178.5 bpa (from 180.7) and production to 15.8 billion bushels, close to expectations. 📉 Even so, it's still the second-largest corn crop on record, while corn ending stocks fell to 1.567 billion bushels (stocks-to-use below 10%) and global stocks hit a 12-year low; soybean yield ticked up to 52.8 bpa.

🔥 August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-y...

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🌱 Soybeans surge on China demand — Nov26 futures jumped nearly 23¢ to close near $13.32/bu after China snapped up ~1mmt of US soybeans this week. The buying comes just two weeks ahead of the expected Xi-Trump meeting in Washington 🇺🇸🇨🇳.

📊 USDA WASDE Day — Traders are bracing for today's 11am CST Crop Production report, with a notable cut to corn yield expected and o...

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🛢️ Oil Surges on US-Iran Tensions—Brent crude jumped 3.4% to top $100/barrel (highest since late May), while WTI climbed 3.3% to over $96. Pain at the pump continues as gas hits $4.22/gallon and diesel sets a record $5.94/gallon, squeezing consumers and supply chains alike! ⛽📈

🌾 Wheat Tumbles Despite War Disruptions—Chicago wheat fell ~18¢ to $7.29/bushel, and KC wheat dropped ~13¢ to $8.06, even as Rus...

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🌽 StoneX Crop Estimates: StoneX trimmed its corn yield forecast to 182.9 bpa but raised production to 16.207 billion bushels on higher acreage. Soybean yield held at 53 bpa while production climbed to 4.547 billion bushels—all eyes now turn to Friday's USDA WASDE report. 📊

🌾 Crop Conditions & Harvest: Corn conditions slipped slightly to 56% good-to-excellent as harvest kicked off at 5% complete nationally. 🚜...

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🌾 Wheat & Black Sea Conflict — Wheat futures jumped as weekend peace talks between US envoys, Putin, and Zelenskiy made little headway on ending the Black Sea conflict. Ukraine says it's open to compromise on grain and energy, but shipments remain far below normal seasonal pace.

⛽ Fuel Prices & Inflation — Diesel hit a record $5.90/gallon and gasoline climbed to $4.15/ga...

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🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures plunged as optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal raised hopes for improved Black Sea grain shipments. December Chicago wheat fell nearly 20¢, while KC wheat dropped about 19¢. 

🌽 Corn: Corn followed wheat lower, with December futures slipping about 3¢ on spillover pressure. 

🫘 Soybeans: Soybeans bucked the trend, gaining 6...

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🇷🇺 Putin Signals Openness to Peace Deal – Putin said early this morning that several countries, including the US and China, are ready to support a peace agreement, though he stressed Russia and Ukraine must ultimately resolve it themselves. He also repeated prior warnings about potential attacks on airplanes in Russian airspace.

🌾 EU Scrambles to Keep Ukrainian Grain Moving...

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🌾 Wheat futures rallied Tuesday, with Dec26 Chicago up ~9¢ to $7.83/bu and Dec26 KC up ~7¢ to $8.45/bu. The move came after Russia rejected a Black Sea attack moratorium, though it also suspended export duties through year-end.

🌽 Corn climbed too, with Dec26 gaining ~8¢ to settle at $5.46/bu on crop yield worries and wheat spillover strength. Funds may have posted...

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🌾 EPA Small Refinery Exemptions: EPA granted full exemptions to 18 refineries and partial exemptions to 11 out of 34 petitions, covering 1.76 billion RINs for 2025. 📈 The agency plans to reallocate 100% of those credits to larger refiners in 2026-2027, sending soybean oil futures sharply higher.

🌍 Black Sea Grain Talks: Turkey has finalized a plan for safe Black Sea grain shipments and is in t...

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🌾 Wheat futures hit a 3+ year high Friday as Dec26 Chicago wheat jumped ~23¢ to $7.84/bu and KC wheat rose ~22¢ to $8.44/bu. Escalating Black Sea military tensions between Russia and Ukraine keep fueling the rally, with Turkey now trying to broker a shipping agreement between the two sides.

🌽 Corn futures also climbed, with Dec26 up 3¢ to $5.37/bu on tight US...

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🌾 Wheat hits a three-year high as Black Sea exports nearly halt amid Russia-Ukraine strikes—Chicago wheat settled near $7.61/bu, KC wheat at $8.22/bu. It's on pace for the biggest monthly gain since Feb 2022, right when the war began.

⛽ Biofuels: The Trump admin is weighing nearly doubling small refinery exemptions (up to 1.8B gallons) to cut fuel pric...

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🇷🇺🌾 Russia-Ukraine Tensions Escalate—Peace talks have collapsed, and Russia is weighing intensified strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian infrastructure, with Black Sea grain shipments essentially halted amid attacks on ships and ports. Up to 70 vessels are stuck waiting near the Sulina Canal, and worsening weather could add to the delays.

📈🌽 Grains Rally on War Fears — Chicago wheat hit its...

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🌽 Corn futures rallied Tuesday, with Dec26 up 8¢ to close near $5.24/bu on shrinking yield expectations and worsening crop conditions. Soybeans climbed too — Nov26 gained almost 14¢ to settle around $12.38/bu on strong Chinese demand and crush margins, though traders are watching for possible Chinese retaliation over new US sanctions on Iran's trading partners.

🌾 Wheat also closed higher despi...

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🌽 Corn Crop Conditions Slip — US corn ratings dropped to 57% good-to-excellent, down from 60% last week and below the 5-year average. North Dakota and Ohio led the declines with steep weekly drops. 📉

🌾 Iowa Yield Checks In — Pioneer's 4,000+ yield checks put Iowa corn at 226.5bpa, just shy of last year, while Pro Farmer's estimate came in notably lower at 193.98bpa. U...

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🌽 Crop Tour Shocks the Corn Market — Pro Farmer's survey pegged national corn yield at just 173.2 bpa (15.34 bil bu), well under USDA's 180.7 bpa estimate, with Iowa fields hiding disappointing grain length despite looking strong from the road. Soybeans told the opposite story, with a record 53.3 bpa yield (4.57 bil bu) projected as conditions improved heading west. 📈

💹 Grains Rally on Bull...

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🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results — Iowa corn came in at 194 bpa (above the 3-yr average) while Minnesota hit 199 bpa, both showing solid potential despite some pollination and drought stress. Soybean pod counts were strong in both states, especially Minnesota's impressive 15% jump above its 3-yr average. 📈

📊 Grain Futures Update — Corn (Dec26) crept up to ~$5.04/bu on mixed Crop Tour...

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🌱 Soybeans led a broad grain rally Wednesday, with Nov26 jumping ~21¢ to settle near $12.37/bu on disappointing Crop Tour results. Corn and wheat joined the move higher too, with Dec26 corn topping $5.00/bu overnight for the first time since May 19th! 🌽

🚜 The Pro Farmer Crop Tour hit Illinois and western Iowa, finding IL corn yields down 7.7% YoY at 184.2...

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🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results – Indiana corn came in at 183.5 bpa (down 5.3% YoY) while Nebraska corn was pegged at 163.6 bpa (down 8.9% YoY), with dryland fields dragging down state averages. 📉 Soybean pod counts were also lower in both states, and standing water in Indiana is raising disease pressure concerns.

🌱 Soybean & Corn Futures Update – Soybeans rallied for a third straigh...

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🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results (SD & OH): South Dakota corn came in at 149.1 bpa (-14% YoY) with soybean pods down 20% YoY, both falling short of USDA's estimates. Ohio fared better at 180.2 bpa for corn (-3% YoY), but the tour's steeper declines vs. USDA in both states could be seen as a friendly signal for prices! 📉

🚀 Soybeans Ra...

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🌧️ Corn Belt Flooding Intensifies – The already-saturated Corn Belt got hit with another round of heavy rain this weekend, with Illinois and Indiana seeing localized totals over 5". The White River in Anderson, Indiana crested at 24.9 feet, breaking a flood record that had stood since 1913! 😱

📈 Grain Prices Surge on Friday – Corn, beans, and wheat all rallied hard to close out the...

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🌽 Corn Belt Weather 

🌧️ Too much rain is becoming a problem in parts of the Corn Belt. Heavy rain from Iowa to Ohio and into Kentucky has caused flooding, with Indiana and Ohio seeing some of the heaviest amounts. More rain and severe storms are possible in the coming days, and some water levels could appro...

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🌽 USDA Slashes Corn & Soybean Yields—The USDA cut its 2026/27 corn yield to 180.7 bpa and soybean yield to 52.7 bpa, both below trade expectations. Higher planted acreage still pushed total production estimates above July's forecasts for both crops. 📊

🌾 Wheat Crop Stays Historically Small—USDA held its wheat production estimate at 1.53 billion bushels, marking the smallest US crop in 56 years. Th...

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🌩️ Severe storms tore through the Corn Belt Tuesday, spawning tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana and knocking out power to nearly a million people. Parts of Indiana and Ohio saw 6"+ of rain in 24 hours, and more stormy weather is expected through the week.

🌾 Russian August wheat exports could hit a 10-year low as Sovecon slashes its forecast t...

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🌽 Ultra-Processed Foods Definition Delayed? The food industry is pushing the Trump administration to delay its ultra-processed foods definition, warning it could raise costs and spark litigation. 🏛️ Despite pushback, officials say the definition is still moving forward—just with uncertain timing.

📉 DTN Yield Models Point Lower DTN's Digital Yield Tour pegs national corn yield at 178.5 bpa and soybeans at...

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🌾 Ukraine grain exports could plunge as Russian attacks on Odesa disrupt Black Sea shipments, with the ag ministry slashing its export estimate 54% to 29.6mmt. 📦 Storage bins could be full by November, leaving an 11mmt shortfall as alternative routes through Romania can't fully replace Odesa's capacity.

📈 Wheat futures bounced back Friday, with Chicago Sep26 up nearly 9 cents to $6...

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🌽🔥 North Dakota Drought & Crops — North Dakota is baking through a hot, dry July with record triple-digit heat and worsening drought, and it's hitting crops hard: corn dropped to 50% good-to-excellent (from 61%) and soybeans fell to 46% (from 52%). Relief may be on the way, with better rain chances and more seasonal temps expected in August. 🌾

🗺️ US Drought Monitor Update — Heavy rai...