Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🛢️ Oil prices surged Thursday, with WTI crude jumping 6.2% to $92.19/barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea raised concerns about global oil supplies. Higher crude prices are also pushing fuel costs higher, with the national average gasoline price climbing to $4.09/gallon. ⛽ 

🌽 Grain markets were mixed. So...

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🚢 Russia restricts Novorossiysk port traffic — Russia has imposed overnight shipping restrictions (midnight–5am) at Novorossiysk, its largest grain export port, due to rising drone attack threats. Grain rerouted from the Sea of Azov is making the port even more critical, though daytime operations continue normally.

🌾 Wheat futures surge on Black Sea tensions — Chicago wheat jumped ~28 cents to $7.06...

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🌽 Iowa Weather & Crops — Warm, dry conditions gave Iowa farmers 6.7 days suitable for fieldwork last week, pushing corn and soybeans through key growth stages, though dry soil is becoming a concern as corn enters pollination. 🌧️ A more active pattern with widespread rain chances is on tap for the Corn Belt this week, though the GFS turned notably drier (and warmer...

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🌱 Soybeans surged to a two-month high near $12.26/bu as hot, dry Corn Belt weather and fresh Chinese buying fueled the rally. 🇨🇳 Renewed Chinese purchases appear to be the bigger driver, with US weather concerns playing a secondary role.

🌽 Corn futures added nearly 6 cents to settle around $4.73/bu, supported by weather worries even as a cooler forecast may c...

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🌾⚔️ Black Sea Grain War Escalates — Ukraine's strikes on Russian shipping and Russia's relentless attacks on Ukrainian ports have wiped out roughly a third of Ukraine's Black Sea export capacity. Wheat futures are exploding higher, with a deadly strike on a corn-carrying cargo ship near Odesa adding fuel to the fire. 📈🚢

🇨🇳🌱 China Keeps Buying US Beans — The USDA confirmed fresh fla...

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🇺🇸🇧🇷 U.S.-Brazil Trade Tensions Escalate

🚨 The Trump administration announced 25% tariffs on many Brazilian imports, effective July 22, citing unfair trade practices. While beef, coffee, and energy products are exempt, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, and ethanol are not. A separate investigation could push tariffs on some Brazilian goods as high as...

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🌾 Wheat futures rallied hard Wednesday as escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions rattled markets, with Chicago wheat closing near $6.77/bu and KC wheat hitting $7.20/bu—both the highest since mid-May. Ukraine has reportedly lost about a third of its grain export capacity after intensified Russian strikes on Black Sea ports, and strength spilled over into corn and soybeans too. 🚢💥

🏛️ House...

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🌾 Russia Reroutes Grain After Black Sea Attacks — Russia is shifting grain shipments away from the Sea of Azov following Ukrainian strikes that disrupted a route responsible for roughly a quarter of its grain exports. Wheat futures spiked to multi-week highs as traders weigh the risk of further Black Sea supply chain chaos! 📈

🔥 Heat Wave Threatens South Dakota...

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🛢️ Oil prices spiked 9.4% to $78.14/barrel Monday as US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz reignited supply fears. Trump announced a US blockade to stop Iranian oil tankers, even as strait traffic had already dropped 52% week-over-week. 🚢

🌾 Russian grain exports face new uncertainty after Sea of Azov shipping restrictions followed Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels. The affected route handles...

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🌽 Grain Markets Surge Overnight 🌾 Corn, soybean, and wheat futures opened sharply higher Sunday night on a combustible mix of weather worries and geopolitical shocks. ☀️ The US Corn Belt faces a dry, hot week ahead, adding fuel to the rally even as some early selling emerged this morning.

⚔️ Black Sea Conflict Escalates 🚢 Ukraine and Russia traded attacks on key grai...

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🌽 Corn & soybeans dipped Thursday as milder weather and wider Corn Belt rainfall eased crop stress — Dec26 corn closed near $4.52, Nov26 beans near $11.82

🌾 Wheat bucked the trend, climbing on tighter US supply expectations

🌡️ GFS and Euro models both flipped cooler for the 8-14 day outlook, adding to the selling pressure

💧 Drought monitor update: improvemen...

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🌽 US farmers face a competitive disadvantage as a new NCGA study shows they pay significantly more than Brazilian farmers for corn and soybean inputs like seed, fungicides, and insecticides. NCGA is now pushing for greater price transparency to help level the playing field.

🌾 Grain futures pulled back Wednesday as easing heat forecasts and profit-taking sent cor...

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🌽 Corn futures rallied to their highest close since early June as scorching heat threatens the Corn Belt. 📈 Renewed optimism over Chinese soybean demand also lifted beans and wheat higher.

🔥 A brutal heat dome is building across the western US and will spread into the Northern Plains and Corn Belt through next week. 🌡️ Triple-digit temps are expected in the...

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🌱 China Returns to US Soybeans: China's COFCO purchased 300,000mt of US soybeans Monday, its largest buy in months, with volume potentially reaching 600,000mt as more deals finalize. 📊 Despite the move, China has only committed to about 2% of the 25mmt annual target agreed to last fall.

🤝 Xi-Trump Meeting on the Horizon: President Trump says Xi Jinping may visit W...

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🌧️ Heavy rain triggered major flooding across Iowa, with over 15 inches falling in central areas and I-35 shut down near Ames. More storms are on the way this week, though the recent extreme heat is expected to ease as the heat dome shifts west toward the Plains. 🌽

📊 USDA's latest drought monitor showed improvement in the southern Corn Belt tha...

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🌱 USDA Fertilizer Investment – USDA is putting $500 million into expanding US fertilizer production, targeting nitrogen projects in Louisiana and Nebraska to cut import reliance. 💰 Don't expect relief at the farm gate anytime soon though — most projects are years from completion, and experts say it's still far short of what's needed for real self-sufficiency.

🌾 Wheat, Corn & Soybeans Rally – Wheat f...

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🌽 Corn futures rallied Tuesday after USDA pegged June 1 stocks at 5.3 billion bushels, below every trade estimate, while 2026 planted acreage came in at 95.34 million acres. The Dec26 contract gained 6 cents to close at $4.36/bushel, while soybean stocks and acreage came in above expectations and wheat acreage fell well short of forecasts.

🌍 President Trump has temporarily suspended duties o...

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🌽 Corn & Soybean Selloff
Corn futures tumbled Monday, with the Dec26 contract falling nearly 12 cents to close at $4.30/bushel as traders positioned ahead of today's USDA report. 📉 Soybeans dropped even harder, with Nov26 losing about 17 cents to settle at $11.39/bushel, while wheat also closed lower.

🌡️ Heat Building Across the Belt
Oppressive heat and humidity will grip the...

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🌡️ A heat dome is building over the Plains and Corn Belt this week, pushing temps into the 90s and triple digits with heat index values up to 110°F and raising crop stress concerns. Storms along the dome's edge should bring rain to the Dakotas, Minnesota, and parts of Nebraska/Kansas before cooler, wetter conditions return by week's end.

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🌱 SOYBEANS & GRAINS RALLY: Soybean futures surged Thursday, with Nov26 closing at $11.57/bu — the highest since early June 📈. Corn and wheat also gained, lifted by soybean oil strength, firmer crude, a weaker dollar, and heat worries across the Corn Belt 🌡️🌽.

💰 FERTILIZER PRICES EASE: Retail fertilizer prices fell for a second straight week as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with...

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🌾 Farm Aid Boost 💰 Trump is requesting $11B+ in new farm aid on top of $30.5B already expected this year, including $10B for 2026 crop support and $1.1B for Southeast freeze losses. This would stack on top of the $12B Farmer Bridge Assistance Program already rolling out to producers.

⛽ Year-Round E15 Push 🌽 The White House just made its first for...

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🌡️ A massive heat dome is set to roast the Plains and Corn Belt next week, pushing real-feel temps above 100°F across the Ohio, Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys. It'll dry out soggy fields but deepen drought stress elsewhere, with stormy edges threatening localized flooding and crop damage too.

🌱 Soybeans held steady Tuesday after two down sessions, with Nov26...

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🇮🇷🌾 US-Iran talks could open the door to new ag demand, with Trump saying unfrozen Iranian funds would go toward purchases of US corn, soybeans, and wheat. Iran's negotiator claims a $12 billion unfreeze deal, though the US hasn't confirmed it, and recent Iranian crop demand has been minimal since a 2018 soybean buy.

🛢️📉 Crude oil kept sliding, with WTI falling ov...

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🌱 China made its first purchase of new-crop US soybeans, snapping up 132,000mt alongside additional flash sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations. This comes after the White House announced China would buy 25mmt of US soybeans annually over the next 3 years.

⚖️ CME has filed a lawsuit against the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi...

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🌽📉 A new report warns the US could lose around 30 million corn acres by 2050. Weak feed demand and an ethanol blend rate stuck at 10% are largely to blame.

⛽🚗 If the ethanol blend rate doesn't increase, the US stands to lose 6.6 billion gallons of ethanol demand by 2050 as overall gasoline use declines. The Senate is now preparing to vote on E15 legislation after the House narrowly passed a similar bill in May.

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🌱 Soybeans lead on China optimism
Soybean futures rallied Tuesday, with Nov ’26 up ~12¢ to ~$11.47 (two-week high) amid rumors China may return to the U.S. market. Optimism was also fueled by a potential September visit from Xi Jinping to Washington. Corn futures were mixed, pressured by weaker crude and favorable weather, while Chicago wheat rose on short...

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🌽 Crop Conditions & Harvest Progress
US crop conditions improved modestly last week. Corn ratings rose to 68% good-to-excellent, while soybeans increased to 66%, both slightly above average. Spring wheat saw a stronger jump to 55%, now above normal levels. Winter wheat improved to 27%, though it remains historically weak for this time of year. Harvest is moving quickly, with 25% compl...

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🌍 Geopolitics
🤝 The U.S. and Iran reached a tentative deal to end the war. The agreement includes releasing $25B in assets and lifting oil sanctions, while Iran commits to no nuclear weapons.
🚢 Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, and the U.S. will lift its naval blockade. More details are expected in...

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🌽 USDA Report: Nothing to Get Excited About
The latest USDA report was largely as expected—minimal changes to U.S. stocks and only modest tweaks on demand. South American production was revised higher, keeping global corn supplies comfortable. Overall reaction: underwhelmed 😐

📉 Grain Markets Slip
Soybeans, corn, and wheat all moved lower...

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📈 Inflation Hits 3-Year High — Consumer prices jumped 4.2% year over year in May, the largest annual gain since April 2023, driven largely by the energy shock from the Iran war. With inflation outpacing wages and the Fed expected to hold rates steady next week, traders are asking, could grains rally sharply like they did in 2021-2022 if inflation accelerates? 

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⛈️ SEVERE WEATHER SLAMS THE PLAINS & CORN BELT 🌪️
Powerful storms are sweeping from North Dakota to northern Texas with damaging winds, hail, and tornado threats before pushing east through the Corn Belt! Flood watches are up across KS, MO, IL, IN, KY, and TN, while heat advisories stretch from Minnesota to Texas. 🥵

🌱 SOYBEANS SLIDE FOR 8TH STRAIGHT SESSI...

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🌽 Corn & Crops — US corn crop conditions held steady at 67% good-to-excellent, while soybeans dipped slightly to 65%. Spring wheat improved week-over-week, but winter wheat hit its lowest rating since records began in 1986.

📈 Futures Markets — Corn and wheat futures saw modest rebounds on bargain buying after recent losses, with KC wheat leading gains up 9 cents. Soybeans fell for a seventh st...

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🌽 Corn and soybean futures continued lower Friday, with December corn settling at $4.46/bu and November beans near $11.38/bu — both at multi-month lows. A stronger dollar, Wall Street weakness, favorable weather, and a lack of Chinese buying all weighed on prices.

🌧️ Weekend rains provided solid coverage across much of the Corn Belt, with more widespread precipitation expected ove...

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🌱📉 Soybean Futures—Soybean futures tumbled sharply on Thursday, with the Nov26 contract dropping nearly 26 cents to settle near $11.42/bu—its lowest point since mid-March. Favorable weather forecasts, weak crude oil prices, and lackluster Chinese demand all weighed on the market.

🌽📊 Corn & Wheat Futures — Corn futures slid 8 cents to close near $4.52/bu on the Dec26 contract, hitting its lowest l...

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🌽 Grain futures extended losses Wednesday, with Dec26 corn falling ~7 cents to $4.60/bu and Nov26 soybeans declining ~11 cents to $11.67/bu — both hitting multi-month lows. Wheat also sold off sharply, with Chicago July26 dropping ~16 cents to $5.87/bu as favorable Corn Belt growing conditions weighed on the complex.

🫘 Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden expressed confidence that China will follow thr...

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Corn futures fell for a third straight session with the Dec26 contract settling near $4.67/bu—its lowest since late February—pressured by favorable Corn Belt weather and no Chinese buying since the mid-May summit. 🌽📉 Soybeans lost 11 cents to close near $11.78/bu and wheat followed lower, with Chicago July settling at $6.03 and KC July at $6.35. 🌾

The White House is...

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🌽 Initial US crop conditions came in below last year's ratings and analyst expectations across corn, soybeans, and wheat. Winter wheat hit its lowest good-to-excellent rating since records began in 1986.

📉 Corn and soybean futures moved lower Monday despite a rally in crude oil, settling near multi-week lows. Weak grain prices were driven by a favorable US Corn Bel...

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🕊️ President Trump says he's in no rush on an Iran deal but warned military action remains on the table if negotiations fail. A tentative 60-day ceasefire extension was agreed upon, though Trump reportedly sent back a revised framework with tougher terms.

⛽ Oil prices tumbled more than 9% last week on deal optimism, hitting a six-week low, while the...

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🌧️☔ Excessive rainfall across major agricultural regions in China is raising concerns about potential crop damage, with heavy precipitation expected to persist through the end of May and into early June. Prolonged wet conditions have delayed wheat development, flattened fields, and are creating favorable conditions for pests and disease. 🌾📉

🤫🌽 Unconfirmed rumors suggest China may reduce tariffs on grain imports, pot...

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🌾 India is ramping up urea imports ahead of peak planting season, but despite buying at nearly double pre-conflict prices, the country still faces a significant supply shortfall. Surprisingly, the tender announcement failed to rally global urea markets, as traders are more focused on potential Chinese export resumption and hopes for a Strait of Hormuz peace deal.

☮...