RiskReversal Pod

This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform.

Try Fidelity’s most powerful trading experience yet: Fidelity.com/TraderPlus⁠

Fidelity Investments and Risk Reversal are not affiliated. Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC.

Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to e...

Dan Nathan hosts Dan Ives to discuss a sharp Nasdaq and semiconductor selloff, shifting AI leadership, and how investors should navigate violent drawdowns. Ives explains his move from Wedbush to the new Yorkville Ives “modern merchant bank,” continued involvement with the Ives ETF, and the launch of a $200 million IPO vehicle investing in private AI companies. They debate AI as an 8–12 year buildout versus dot-com, emphasizing the gap between massive CapEx and monetization, energy constraints, and leverage risks at firms like Oracle and neo-clouds. The conversation contrasts Microsoft’s enterprise-driven AI upside with Alphabet’s ad/search cannibalization fears, highlights...

In a solo Monday edition of the RiskReversal Podcast, Dan Nathan recaps a volatile week marked by major tech earnings, a Fed decision and press conference, rising yields, and looming catalysts including the election and the October jobs report. He notes the S&P’s tight consolidation despite sharp moves in mega-cap tech, with weakness in Alphabet, Meta and Amazon contrasted with relative strength in Microsoft, and highlights a dramatic Intel plunge on weak guidance as a warning about AI-trade narratives, heavy CapEx and negative cash flow. He questions enthusiasm for massive AI-related IPOs amid widespread debt and capital ra...

Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management and co-host of The Compound and Friends, joins Dan Nathan for a wide-ranging conversation recorded on a volatile morning for AI stocks. They dig into why Josh calls this “the age of AI” rather than a trade. They also cover why he thinks the long-term winners will have to own their compute end to end, and whether Anthropic’s upcoming IPO can draw real retail demand at a $1.5–2 trillion valuation.

Josh also explains his framework for finding the best stocks in the market: start with the stocks that are already going up...

Dan Nathan hosts David Steinberg, CEO and founder of Zeta Global, for a wide-ranging conversation recorded after Zeta Live in New York, where Steinberg says the event drove $10 of business for every dollar spent last year and expects 12–14x this year. Steinberg explains Zeta’s 2017 decision to re-architect its platform with proprietary data and AI native to the application layer, a bet he says paid off after ChatGPT made AI a boardroom priority; he cites growth from $283M trailing revenue at the 2021 IPO to about $1.8B this year and strong ROI metrics for clients. He describes intent-driven marketing built on a...

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami “bookmark” a pivotal week heading into major tech earnings, a Fed meeting, and the midterms, noting the S&P’s resilience near highs despite sharp damage in former leaders like semis and select tech. They argue money isn’t leaving equities but rotating into defensives such as staples, utilities, healthcare, defense, software, and especially cybersecurity (Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Zscaler), while discussing how 10-year yields around 5% and shifting bond-market dynamics affect rate-sensitive stocks and tech financing. They focus on AI-driven CapEx, negative free cash flow at Meta, dilution via a new share class, and rising CDS leve...

Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing.

LEARN MORE: https://apexfintechsolutions.com/?utm_source=Risk+Reversal&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_campaign=701PJ00000fnXhaYAE

Guy Adami interviews Cameron Dawson of NewEdge Wealth about growing scrutiny of the AI trade, arguing hyperscalers’ AI CapEx is dilu...

Dan Nathan hosts Damien Lewke, CEO and founder of AI-native cybersecurity company Nebulock. Lewke recounts his career from nation-state defense at Northrop Grumman to CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, MIT research in NLP, and leading AI detections at Arctic Wolf. They discuss how the threat surface has expanded with distributed environments and how the ChatGPT moment accelerated both defensive usability and offensive capability. Lewke explains Nebulock’s “hunt-first” mission to give any team machine-speed detection and response, positioning it across converging markets like SIEM, MDR, AI SOC, and insider threat/UEBA. The conversation covers enterprise AI adoption, supply-chain risk, investor percep...

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: ⁠http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us⁠

Guy Adami welcomes Mike Tracey, Vice President of Risk at Apex Fintech Solutions, to discuss how credit and debt markets are increasingly driving equity action, with bond volatility and elevated yields pressuring the AI CapEx trade now funded more by debt. They examine revenue-whisper risk around OpenAI and Anthropic and describe Oracle as a tracking stock for OpenAI expectations, given its dependence on data-center buildouts. Despite the S&P 500 near highs and a VIX around 16, they argue dispersion and rotation are masking risk and that investors should watc...

Checkout David's Book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1997701774?lv=shuf&channelId=500&plpRedirect=mhFallback

Checkout Rosenberg Research: https://www.rosenbergresearch.com

Subscribe to our Substack: http://riskreversal.substack.com

On the RiskReversal Podcast, Dan Nathan interviews David Rosenberg (aka Rosie) about the CPI report, Fed policy, and what Rosenberg views as an AI-driven market “mania” and one-trick-pony economy. Rosenberg says the latest core CPI print is disappointing but argues inflation is being driven largely by energy-related supply shocks, with weakening real wages, slowing real spending, cracking housing, stable money growth, and range-bound inflation expectations. He w...

Dan Nathan welcomes Deirdre Bosa to the Okay, Computer podcast to discuss her upcoming daily Yahoo Finance show, “Deirdre Bosa Live,” launching November 9 and airing weekdays 1–2 PM PT. They dig into how Microsoft has shifted Copilot toward a model-agnostic approach—routing tasks to the most cost-effective models amid open-source commoditization—while also launching its Maia 300 custom AI chip to manage supply and spending uncertainty. The conversation touches on Meta’s product-driven resurgence, enterprise adoption dynamics, and investor concerns about AI infrastructure capex and debt. They compare emerging personal AI assistants (Muse, Instinct, and OpenAI “Dot”), emphasizing utility, branding, and trust/security a...

CHECKOUT CALEB'S SUBSTACK: investopedia.substack.com/t/caleb-silvers-signal

It’s the most critical week of the year as investors face a wave of earnings reports and the latest inflation reading with bond yields and oil prices pushing higher. Risk Reversal’s Dan Nathan drops in with what to watch and listen for as the stock market inches higher on weak breadth and hopes that there are still leaves on the money tree for the AI buildout. Plus, the bull market turns four this week and history teaches us that they’ve been running longer and stronger in recent...

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami reunite to preview the week, focusing on two late-week tech stories: a Nikkei report that Apple may have cut iPhone 18/18 Pro component orders, and market volatility sparked by questions around OpenAI’s revenue figures, including debate over annual run-rate calculations and implications for AI-linked stocks and “NeoCloud” customers. They discuss a macro backdrop of a 10-year yield around 5.24%, a firm dollar, subdued VIX, and sticky crude near $91 amid heightened Middle East tensions and election-related timing concerns. The pair critique Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s approach as yields rise despite policy aims, and debate what could br...

Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing.

LEARN MORE: https://apexfintechsolutions.com/?utm_source=Risk+Reversal&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_campaign=701PJ00000fnXhaYAE

Dan Nathan and Peter Boockvar discuss why longer-term yields are rising globally, arguing the bond market is increasingly setting the co...

Go follow the 'What Are We Doing' Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/

LIVE from the HOOD Summit in Houston: Dan Nathan hosts as the guys walk through the short seller's checklist: short interest, valuation, cost to borrow and, most importantly, a real catalyst. They explain why shorting is so much harder than it looks and how they manage risk by pressing into rallies and covering into weakness. Porter then morphed into a combination of Carter Worth and Steve Kornacki by pointing out technicals on the big screen while Vinnie and Danny argued about whether or not trading...

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us

Guy Adami welcomes back Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at Mastercard, to dig into what Mastercard's data is saying about the American consumer heading into the holiday season. With mortgage rates above 7% and sentiment surveys still gloomy, Michelle explains why spending keeps holding up. The answer is a healthy labor market, strong household balance sheets, and a K-shaped economy where upper-income households are spending faster but every income group is still growing. She breaks down Mastercard's forecast for 5.5% holiday spending growth (excluding autos and gas), the strongest in...

Live from the HOOD Summit in Houston, Guy & Dan sit down with Robinhood's Steph Guild, Porter Collins, Vincent Daniel to make sense of a market sitting near record highs despite a war, $95 oil and a 10-year yield pushing past 5%. The panel digs into horrific market breadth and the passive flows propping up a handful of mega-caps. They discuss why private credit may be the canary in the coal mine for the AI buildout, and whether Nvidia's lending to its own customers makes it look more like a bank than a chipmaker. They also cover the case for energy after...

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us

Guy Adami and Liz Thomas discuss historic moves in U.S. Treasuries, with yields jumping 20 bps in two days, the 5-year above 5%, and the average Treasury yield above 5%, signaling a new inflationary regime and forcing investors to rethink allocations. Despite higher discount rates, stocks have held up due to a rotation back into mega-cap tech and AI-driven CapEx supporting GDP expectations, even as the bond market “story” looks ominous. Thomas outlines a “balance by extremes” approach—overweight AI/tech while holding 10-year Treasuries, gold, and commodities—and warns a prol...

Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing. LEARN MORE HERE

Checkout Gary's Substack: https://garymarcus.substack.com/

Jim Chanos returns, this time with AI researcher/professor emeritus Gary Marcus. The two join Dan to discuss AI's build-out technology, economics, and risks. Marcus argues mo...

Dan Nathan sits down with Fahad Hassan and David Cusatis, co-founders of Range, an AI-native wealth management platform that just crossed $1 billion in assets under management. Fahad and David built Range without any traditional finance background, starting from a simple frustration: the old 1% AUM model is expensive, opaque, and hasn't changed in 100 years.

We get into Range's AI agent, Rai, which can execute backdoor Roth conversions over text message, and why the founders believe AI is already outperforming human financial advisors. Plus: a live demo of Meta's Muse booking a flight and ordering an Uber mid-dinner, why...

Apex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors. The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable and streamline trading, wealth management, cost basis, tax reporting, and, through its subsidiary Apex Clearing™, custody and clearing.

LEARN MORE: https://apexfintechsolutions.com/?utm_source=Risk+Reversal&utm_medium=Podcast&utm_campaign=701PJ00000fnXhaYAE

Dan Nathan hosts Dan Niles of Niles Investment Management on the Risk Reversal podcast to discuss a rallying market amid a...

TRY NOW: Rosenberg Research Free Trial

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami welcome David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research to discuss his new global macro multi-asset ETF, ROSY, built from his conviction-based model portfolio and launched with Corton Capital, with plans to list in the U.S. in Q1, and preview his upcoming October book, “Bear In The Bull Ring.” The conversation then turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s 25 bp rate hike and hawkish messaging, which Rosenberg argues misreads economic trends and overstates labor-market strength amid slowing wage growth and weak year-over-year momentum in jobs, incomes, and industrial produc...

Checkout the WAWD Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/

Watch Danny's Interview with Cameron Dawson: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zh-wizTNeC0

Guy hosts Danny Moses on the RiskReversal Podcast, recorded on September 11, and they discuss Japan as an epicenter for global markets as the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates, highlighting Japan’s ability to sell over $1.2 trillion in US Treasuries and the implications for US yields amid $40 trillion in debt, a $2 trillion deficit, and heavy near-term refinancing needs. They argue oil is inflationary but not the sole driver, citing AI CapEx, tariffs, an...

Dan Nathan is joined by Gene Munster, Managing Partner at Deepwater Asset Management, for a deep dive into Apple's foldable iPhone Duo launch and what it means for AAPL — plus a broader tour through the week's biggest tech and AI stories: Meta's new agentic AI product Muse, Google's Gemini momentum, Tesla's Cyber Cab and what it means for Uber, and the AI safety debate sparked by a departing Anthropic researcher's warning.

—
FOLLOW US
YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia
Instagram: @riskreversalmedia
Twitter: @RiskReversal
LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are...

Watch MRKT Call on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/riskreversalmedia

SUBSCRIBE to our newsletter: ⁠http://riskreversal.substack.com/⁠

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami break down the top market headlines and bring you stock market trade ideas for Wednesday, September 9th.

Articles Mentioned

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami break down a wild week of macro data and single-stock news heading into the Fed's September meeting. They dig into the surprisingly strong August jobs report and what it means for a Fed already boxed in by political pressure on Kevin Warsh, why the VIX sitting near 14 might be dangerous complacency, and why the bond market's reaction to a potential rate hike could be totally counterintuitive. They also cover the yen intervention, the structural case for energy stocks amid the Iran conflict, and Dan's argument for why the U.S. isn't as "energy independent"...

Go checkout The Dick & Paul Show on YouTube

Dan Nathan interviews Paul Kedrosky about the AI-driven surge in non-residential fixed investment and why today’s data-center buildout resembles prior overbuild cycles like railroads and fiber. Kedrosky argues the current moment is unusually risky because it combines technology hype, loose credit, government-policy urgency, and real-estate speculation (including “powered land/shells”), with more hyperscaler data-center spend now externally financed. He discusses Nvidia’s growing role as a potential single point of failure via ecosystem financing, and warns that large language models are rapidly commoditizing as performance converges and token prices d...

Dan Nathan interviews Phil Rosen, CEO/CTO and co-founder of Astraeus, an AI infrastructure company for wealth management. Rosen recounts his path from college dropout to fintech builder, including Orchard Platform and Even Financial (later MoneyLion Engine), explaining how API-embedded distribution and machine-learning signals improved lending decisioning while navigating regulatory explainability. He argues many “AI companies” mainly deploy or fine-tune others’ models and that value often lies in data pipelines, governance, and deterministic software around AI. Rosen describes Astreus targeting independent RIAs and private-equity roll-ups (from ~$2B to ~$200B AUM) by unifying siloed legacy data, codifying compliance rules, and deploy...

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan open by recounting a fan’s Guy-themed T-shirt sighting on CNBC’s Fast Money, then discuss Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks as largely status quo, with the S&P 500 near all-time highs and the VIX around 14 despite potential catalysts like the August jobs report. They argue markets appear complacent ahead of midterms and cite historical midterm drawdowns, while noting election-related tensions, Canada trade friction, and Russia/NATO risks as possible volatility drivers. The hosts highlight a widening disconnect between strong equities and weakening consumer signals seen in recent retail earnings, alongside rising...

This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform. Try Fidelity’s most powerful trading experience yet: https://www.fidelity.com/investing/trading-platforms

Fidelity Investments and Risk Reversal are not affiliated. Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity products or services discussed are offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC. The trademarks and service marks appearing herein are the property of their respective owners.

Dan Nathan sits down with Imran Khan, CIO and founder of Proem Asset Management, to break do...

Dan Nathan sits down with Matt Turck, Managing Director at First Mark Capital and creator of the annual MAD (Machine Learning, AI & Data) Landscape, for a wide-ranging look at where AI investing stands right now. They cover the power-law dynamics driving venture dollars to a handful of companies, why Nvidia is starting to look like "the bank" of the AI industry, Anthropic's surge past $65 billion in revenue and its first profitable quarter, and how OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Meta are each positioning for what comes next. The conversation turns philosophical with a discussion of AGI, superintelligence, and the idea...

Danny Nathan and Danny Moses discuss recent Treasury Secretary Bessent comments and plans to increase long-dated Treasury buybacks, arguing the amounts are largely signaling, yields quickly reverted, and the move effectively constrains Fed Chair Warsh ahead of Jackson Hole and a potential September hike. They connect rising yields, debt/deficits, inflation pressures, dollar/yen dynamics, and Bank of Japan policy to higher market volatility, tighter funding conditions, and renewed interest in gold, while noting capital may favor high-grade corporates over Treasuries. They review Walmart’s earnings beat but same-store-sales miss and valuation-driven selloff as a consumer and defensives litmus te...

WATCH 'The Dick & Paul Show' on YouTube: https://youtu.be/LtLBhBp5T40

This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform.

Try Fidelity’s most powerful trading experience yet: https://Fidelity.com/TraderPlus

Fidelity Investments and MRKT Call are not affiliated. Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC.

Dan Nathan sits down with Paul Costolo, former CEO of Twitter and current VC. They start with Dick's early comedy days (Second City alongside St...

Dan Nathan hosts FirstMark Capital partner David Waltcher at the firm’s HQ to discuss Waltcher ’s path from an Accel internship to investing in enterprise software, security, and AI. They compare the consumer-to-SaaS shift, the post-2021 “SaaSpocalypse,” and how public markets can overreact to AI narratives, using Salesforce as a system-of-record case study. Waltcher argues many incumbents will prove durable due to switching costs, ecosystems, and trust, while M&A is accelerating amid volatile publics, strong buyers, and fast-growing AI businesses, citing deals like Stripe–OpenRouter and interest in Workday. The conversation turns to Chinese and open models driving to...

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us

Checkout The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/about/

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Peter Boockvar, CIO at OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners, to unpack recent inflation data and why yields remain resilient, with the curve steepening as the two-year dips while the 10-year holds around 4.65%. Boockvar argues the Fed must weigh PPI alongside CPI, noting persistent producer pressures and limited pass-through that squeezes margins and hiring, contributing to weak consumer confidence and “running to stand still” wages. They discuss why the S&P 500 conti...

Checkout the WAWD Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/

Dan Nathan welcomes Vincent Daniel, partner at Seawolf Capital and one of the investors who called the 2008 housing crash, for a deep dive into where markets stand heading into year-end. They break down new Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh's "immaculate economy" problem, why passive fund flows are quietly the most powerful force in the market, and the hedge-fund blowup that briefly rattled the S&P. From there, Dan and Vincent get into the real meat of the episode: the new wave of GPU-backed financing deals from Nvidia, Apollo, and...

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!

Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTT

Sonali joins the podcast on the one-year anniversary of moving from Bloomberg to iCapital, discussing her media series “The Bridge” and iCapital’s reach across wealth and asset managers. The conversation centers on AI economics, especially how declining token costs shift value along the “AI food chain,” with hyperscalers capturing a large share while software and enterprises benefit as costs fall, and with demand (Jev...

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami dig into the biggest story in markets: Nvidia's roundtable with Wall Street's top financiers — Jensen Huang, David Solomon, Jon Gray, and Stephen Schwarzman — and the multi-hundred-billion-dollar backstop deal getting compared to a modern-day CDO. Dan lays out why he thinks this AI CapEx build could make the dot-com bust and the GFC look tame, walks through Nvidia's doubling credit default swaps, and answers a listener question on exactly what would signal the bubble has popped. Plus: the cautionary tale of The Trade Desk's collapse from $140 to $14, why valuations are only richer once before in hist...

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us

Guy Adami speaks with Jim Swartwout, CEO of Prosperum Fintech Holdings about Swartout’s four-decade career across Schwab, Fidelity, E-Trade, TradeMonster, Scottrade, Robinhood, and more, and what it reveals about the evolution of retail investing. Swartout argues retail is in a “golden age” driven by better data, tools, fractional trading, extended-hours markets, and lower costs, and says payment for order flow is not a meaningful issue at current levels. They discuss social-media-driven concentration and communities, Prosperum/Avantgarde’s education and partner communities, and AI features aiming to deliver...

This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform.Try Fidelity’s most powerful trading experience yet: https://www.fidelity.com/trading/trading-platforms?immid=100734&imm_pid=428905629&imm_aid=a&dfid=&buf=99999999

Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are notendorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity BrokerageServices LLC, Member NYSE, SIPCApex Fintech Solutions provides the tools and services that enable hundreds of clients to launch, scale, and support digital investing for tens of millions of end investors.

The company provides essential infrastructure and a comprehensive ecosystem of cloud-based products to enable an...