Politics Politics Politics

(This episode is the final chunk of a four-hour election night livestream.)

This is a blue tsunami — an absolute wipeout of Republican power in the House and Senate. When Talarico is winning Texas by 20 points, Democrats are leading in Kansas and South Carolina is competitive, there’s nobody safe outside of maybe Tennessee and Kentucky. Democrats have a real shot at ending up with somewhere around 53 to 55 Senate seats, possibly more depending on races like Alaska and Iowa. I thought polarization would keep these midterms closer, and I was wrong. Justice for pollsters — they did the damn thing...

I defy anybody to feel like they have an accurate read on the vibes going into these midterms.

The polls look electric for Democrats, even if there’s a general belief that they’re overrepresenting Democratic support. Republicans seem depressed as they realize that Trump beat the party into submission, and that the coalition that won in 2024 could only be unlocked by tying themselves completely to him. MAGA Inc. has spent money and Trump has been on the road, but the war in Iran is unpopular, inflation remains a problem and the economy hasn’t been solved. Then...

I’ve talked to a lot of really intelligent, analytical people, left, right and center, and nobody believes Republicans will keep both the House and the Senate. It’s a silly scenario. Dismissed. That leaves two possibilities: “win in name only,” with Democrats gaining 15 House seats and taking control but falling short in the Senate, or “my blue heaven,” with Democrats gaining more than 15 House seats and taking the Senate, too. On a bad map, that would be quite a big deal. A lot of the states now in play voted for Donald Trump by eight, nine, ten, fifteen points and u...

Two-thirds of Israeli voters had cast ballots four hours before polls closed Tuesday, the highest turnout at that stage since 1973, according to Axios. Election officials ordered polling stations to accelerate voting after reports of long lines, saying anyone arriving by 10 p.m. local time would be allowed to cast a ballot. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks another term, with 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. This is Israel’s first election since the October 7th attacks in 2023.

I’m not going to pretend that I’m an expert in the Knesset or Israeli coalitions, which will essentially decide...

Mike Rogers is trying to tie Abdul El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah and other radical Islamic organizations. El-Sayed isn’t known to be a Muslim Brotherhood member, but unearthed tweets from his sister suggest their mother helped organize or work with the group. Other parts of the attack rely on El-Sayed’s relationship with organizations like CAIR and the allegations Republicans have made against them.

Politically, the strategy makes sense. Rogers needs to split Black voters in Detroit and Jewish voters in the suburbs away from the Democratic coalition. He’s trying to make El-Sayed “more Ara...

I drove from Austin to Waco along I-35, one of the most heavily traveled corridors in Texas, and James Talarico is dominating the billboard game. I don’t love the billboards themselves because the text is too small to read safely from a distance, but the themes are smart and clear: Talarico will protect healthcare, and Talarico will lower costs. One is the issue of the day — affordability — and the other is an issue Democrats are generally trusted on.

Ken Paxton was almost nonexistent. The biggest Republican billboard I saw looked like something a random person had purcha...

Former Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan recently said, “We’re still running transgender ads, and it’s just not resonating.” Republicans are trying to recreate the most iconic attack of 2024 — Kamala Harris is for they/them, Donald Trump is for you — by targeting James Talarico’s old progressive positions. But if the ads aren’t moving the polls and voters would rather discuss gas prices or inflation, what good are they? Maybe somebody decided to take the left-hand path and raise the issue’s salience another way.

Texans have begun receiving messages that say, “Questions about gender-affirming care in Texas? Start...

A race that should’ve barely garnered any attention outside its home state is turning into one of the hottest of the midterms, as Republican Senator Roger Marshall is in the fight of his life against Democrat Adam Hamilton. Six months ago, Democratic hopes for the Senate were centered on Maine, Ohio, and Michigan, maybe even Florida at the outer edges. Nobody was talking about Kansas. Now Emerson has Hamilton ahead 45–43, the New York Times/Siena poll has the race tied at 45, and YouGov has Hamilton leading 48–45. These are consistent, margin-of-error leads for a Democrat.

Marshall is a thro...

We’re less than a month from Election Day, which means this is when polls should begin to move. The money has been spent, the persuasion is out there, and the surrogates have said what they’re going to say. A race sitting at five or six points needs to move toward three or two if it’s going to become competitive. Otherwise, it starts widening to the point where we can call it done.

Michigan is essentially tied. Four recent polls have Abdul El-Sayed leading Mike Rogers by one or two points, while a smaller survey put El...

This wasn’t supposed to be a good Senate year for Democrats. They’re competing in states Trump won, sometimes by double digits, and Maine looked like their best pickup opportunity. But if you believe the RealClearPolitics averages, we’re going to see a blue Senate. Democrats currently lead by 0.7 points in Iowa and Maine, 1.6 in Minnesota, and 1.8 in Alaska, while Kansas Republican Roger Marshall leads by only one. Recent polling is even worse for Republicans: Marist has Troy Jackson up four in Maine and Josh Turek up eight in Iowa, while a New York Times/Siena poll has Mary P...

A Democratic outside group called Defend the Vote has launched a $7 million statewide television campaign attacking Senator John Husted’s ties to data-center developers and making him the face of AI data centers in Ohio. Husted knows he’s vulnerable on this. That’s why he attached his name to the Ratepayer Protection Act, which was designed to prevent regular citizens from paying higher electricity costs because of data centers. The bill passed the House but failed procedurally in the Senate, 57–43, because it needed 60 votes.

Most people don’t really know why data centers are supposed to be bad bey...

Right now, the prediction markets have James Talarico at about 60–40, and the polling shows either a tied race or one where he’s slightly ahead of Ken Paxton. But I live in the most liberal enclave of Texas, and this doesn’t feel like Beto mania. You see Talarico signs around Austin, but you don’t see the same cultural energy. Maybe that’s by design. Talarico is trying to appeal more to the middle, and Beto lost in a favorable environment during Trump’s first midterm.

The biggest wind at Talarico’s back is the environment. Trump is histo...

For my money, the most accurate television depiction of politics isn’t House of Cards — villainous, murky, lethal — or The West Wing — quippy, nerdy, idealistic. It’s Veep: mistake-prone, profane egos slapping lewdly against each other while supplicants protect the fragile facade of elected officials. When a story reinforces that idea, we’ve got to talk about it.

Mary Peltola is running as a strong Democratic candidate for Senate in Alaska. She’s well-liked statewide, has cross-party appeal, and doesn’t talk or act like a normal Democrat. The polling bears out the idea that she could win. But a new N...

I’m struggling to find anything that dissuades me from a position I think is probably too aggressive: Democrats are going to ransack. They’re going to pillage. They’re going to take things that aren’t usually theirs. The polling, the energy, and the environment all point in that direction, and I haven’t seen the midair maneuvering Republicans would need to put together a coherent message. Their argument is basically, “You’re really going to turn the keys back over to those guys? They’re lunatics and they’ve learned no lessons.” That’ll work with some of the base, but I don...

When it comes to the war in Iran, my supposition is that the economic negativity driving the country — and creating an environment where Democrats could do very well in the midterms — is entirely about one thing: the price of gas. The war is incredibly unpopular, but it’s different from the war in Iraq. Both were very expensive, but Iraq brought coffins back at a scale we haven’t seen here. The biggest difference is what Americans are paying at the pump.

According to AAA’s live average, gas is at $4.44 nationally. It’s higher in states like Califor...

The Republican Governors Association is already throwing downfield in Ohio. During the Ohio State–Texas game, it aired an ad attacking Amy Acton over a 2019 family dispute in which Acton’s daughter called 911, both adults acknowledged drinking, and Acton said she’d taken prescription migraine medication. The ad also called Acton a coward for refusing to debate Vivek Ramaswamy.

This is earwly to throw out a smear like “you’re an alcoholic.” If the only thing Acton needs to do to beat that charge is not act like an alcoholic in public, she’ll likely be able to beat it. Ac...

Trump says he’ll give every American $5,000 if Republicans retain the House and Senate. That’s about $1.3 trillion, and the country is already $40 trillion in the hole. Is it a bribe? No — well, yes. Is it a political bribe? It’s unconventional, but I have a hard time separating it from politicians promising government services and warning that those services will disappear if you vote for the other party. The more important point is that even if Republicans keep Congress, this ain’t happening. There’s no political will for it, and I highly doubt the votes exist.

So why are...

Trump’s threat to ban Bombardier aircraft sales has put Kansas Republicans in a bind. Senators Jerry Moran and Roger Marshall contacted the administration because the Canadian company supports American jobs, including more than 1,000 at its Wichita headquarters. Marshall is defending those jobs while still endorsing Trump’s goal of bringing more manufacturing home. That’s the political tension: A trade fight sold as protecting American workers is now threatening American workers who are already here.

A deal with Canada was allegedly close before it fell apart at the eleventh hour. Neither country really wants this. They both w...

I’m in Atlanta for Dragon Con, and normally that would give me a chance to see what the campaigns are putting on television. But I don’t expect to see many political ads while I’m in the Peach State, because Georgia’s Senate race wasn’t supposed to look like this. It was supposed to be Brian Kemp against Jon Ossoff — a heavyweight fight if there ever was one. But Kemp didn’t run; Mike Collins won the Republican primary, and plenty of Georgia Republicans really, really hate him. Ossoff has made himself more palatable and taken enough tough v...

House Republicans just returned from five weeks in their districts, and there’s already a rumor that they’re about to pull an “Abe Simpson” — walk into Washington, turn around, and leave again. They’ll vote on a Senate-approved stopgap funding bill to keep the government open through December, probably with Democratic support, and pass a few messaging bills about how they don’t like socialism. Beyond that, expectations are low. They want to leave until November 9, after the midterms.

The reasoning is simple: If they’re not going to accomplish anything in this divided, fractious Congress, why stay? Republ...

The Iran war has reached the six-month mark, far beyond the quick victory Trump once promised. Pakistan says it’s still working on diplomacy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump says he has no timetable for ending the conflict and insists the United States is winning. The big story is that there now appears to be free passage through the American-controlled corridor off Oman’s coast. About half of the prewar oil traffic is reportedly getting through. That would represent a significant loss of Iranian leverage — but only if crude prices begin to fall.

Brent crude...

I’ve got a bad feeling about the South Carolina runoff for Darlene Graham. Lindsey Graham’s sister led the first round with roughly 32 percent but now faces Representative Ralph Norman. Trump encouraged her to run, endorsed her before she formally entered, campaigned with her in Myrtle Beach, and held a runoff-eve tele-rally. MAGA Inc. spent $827,000 on last-day calls and texts supporting her. Norman is a longtime officeholder with a hardline conservative record who backed Trump but committed the unforgivable sin of endorsing Nikki Haley in 2024.

The problem is that Darlene has run an objectively bad campaign, even...

The midterms will definitively fall into one of three scenarios. Republicans began this Congress with a 220–215 House majority and hold the Senate 53–47. The environment is brutal for them: Trump’s approval is at 33 percent, 70 percent disapprove of his handling of inflation and the cost of living, and the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot is getting close to eight points. But Republicans have a big money advantage, and the Senate map still requires almost everything to go right for Democrats.

Scenario one is Ah, Nevertheless: Republicans retain both the House and Senate. They can lose two House seats...

Florida is a red state, but it’s never without interest and intrigue. Byron Donalds is going to destroy everybody in the Republican primary for governor. He’s been a Trump loyalist, has Trump’s endorsement, and all the rumors about Casey DeSantis running amounted to a hill of beans. Alex Vindman will likely win the Democratic Senate primary before losing to Ashley Moody in November. But the more interesting races are farther down the ballot, where several people may be out of politics forever when this is over.

Florida’s newly redrawn 22nd District has seven Republic...

Wisconsin Democrats narrowly chose Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley over Democratic Socialist state representative Francesca Hong in the gubernatorial primary, 39.8 percent to 39.4 percent. It’s close enough that this might be headed to a recount, but it doesn’t appear that Hong won. Crowley, who was endorsed by Governor Tony Evers, will face Trump-endorsed Republican representative Tom Tiffany. The result halted the progressive left’s recent primary momentum, but it still showed its strength in a battleground state.

What you’re probably going to hear about is the polling. After the polls wildly overestimated Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan...

Abdul El-Sayed is going to be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Michigan, but the victory was much closer than it looked when I initially planned to call it. With 23 percent of the vote counted, Haley Stevens was barely leading in Oakland County, which she represents in Congress, and the outstanding votes appeared to favor El-Sayed. I thought he was heading toward an eight-to-ten-point win. Instead, the margin narrowed to about 1.4 percent. Barring some miraculous vote drop out of Detroit, El-Sayed wins, but this wasn’t an overwhelming progressive victory.

The polling miss is the polling miss. Co...

Haley Stevens has found her groove. She’s made herself into a plucky underdog, which is hard because she’d been typecast as the spoiled golden girl — Chuck Schumer’s special little lady who was handed everything and had all the money. Mallory McMorrow was fresh, Abdul El-Sayed was exciting, and Stevens looked like she was getting run over. Now her message is: I don’t care what they make fun of me for. I’m like you, and I’m looking out for you. It’s solid. It’s good.

El-Sayed has run a very good campaign, but he’s...

Donald Trump says he’s close to deciding whether to launch a massive attack on Iran as the U.S. military expands its campaign aimed at stopping attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon used a B-1 bomber against Revolutionary Guard targets for the first time since the fighting resumed, while Iran continues attacking U.S. bases and shipping. Trump says Tehran wants negotiations, but the White House hasn’t accepted any of the Iranian proposals. The House voted 214 to 208 to demand an end to hostilities, while the Senate rejected a similar measure 47 to 49.

Th...

To date, Trump 2.0 has been defined by everybody appearing to be on the same page and by a sense that the administration kept moving its priorities forward. You might not have liked what those priorities were, but the priorities did get done. The one big beautiful bill was described as an administration’s worth of priorities getting done too soon, and it seems like that might have been prophetic. Trump 1.0 returns when internal fights spill into public view, aides leak against one another, major spectacles vanish with nothing much changing, and the president treats factional drama as fuel rather th...

Donald Trump is going before the nation Thursday night to make a case about election integrity. We don’t know exactly where or how many places he’s going to be shown, but we do know what the case is supposed to be. And the difference between what he says and how he says it is literally the difference between 80% of America agreeing with him and 20% of America agreeing with him.

What Trump really wants to do is demonstrate that now that he’s in control of the federal government, all the things he said about the federa...

Circle August 4th on your calendar: Michigan is now the number one marquee primary matchup I’m watching. Mallory McMorrow is out of the race as of a couple of weeks ago, and what’s left is a head-to-head contest between the Democratic establishment — or at least what’s left of it — and the insurgent progressive movement. Yes, friends, it’s Haley Stevens versus Abdul El-Sayed, and it’s set to be a knockout fight.

This really represents the first live test for the current Democratic Party. Can the progressive movement, with a more charismatic candidate and a high-energy...

Graham Platner is out… but is he? Last night in Maine, he released an 11-minute video that savaged the Democratic establishment and the progressive establishment. He blamed everybody but himself for why he’s suspending his campaign, saying all of his resources were taken away from him. The people who didn’t fight for him — Ro Khanna, Bernie Sanders, Hasan Piker — all wound up in the blast radius.

Everybody wanted Platner to be a lot more conciliatory. He was not. He was forceful. He took what he wanted. But here’s the big question: you can’t declare bankru...

European leaders are talking about a rupture with America — a de-Americanization of the continent driven by Donald Trump’s demands that NATO members spend more on defense, his transactional view of alliances, and even his threats to annex Greenland. I don’t blame them for being frustrated. Their citizens hate the guy, and they still have to deal with him.

Trump is never going to be a weepy internationalist reminiscing about the transatlantic bond forged in blood and mud from World War II through the Cold War. He looks at every relationship as a business deal: What are yo...

We talk all the time about how America is a very young country, and that’s true when you compare us to Europe, Africa, and Asia, where countries are built around lineages, ethnic majorities, and religions. But not America. We’re a melting pot. We’re risk takers. It’s woven into the fabric of the United States that no matter where you are right now, tomorrow can be better than today was, and your life can be better here than it can be anywhere else in the world. You can gain here. You can lose here, too, so you’ve g...

The Supreme Court wrapped up its term with three major decisions, and one surprise that turned out not to be a surprise after all. NPR briefly published a report that suggested Justice Samuel Alito was retiring, which would have handed Donald Trump another Supreme Court appointment, but that story was pulled, leaving us to wonder when that announcement might finally land.

The actual rulings were significant enough on their own, though. The Court rejected Trump’s effort to end birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants and temporary visa holders, effectively settling a legal argument that im...

What should have been a bipartisan housing bill touting affordability has instead become a fight over the Save America Act. Representative Anna Paulina Luna is leading a House conservative blockade, freezing routine procedural votes until the Senate takes up the Trump-backed elections bill. The problem is that the Senate has no path forward. The bill doesn’t have the votes, and the Senate isn’t about to let the House dictate its agenda. In the meantime, House Republicans are unable to move other priorities, including appropriations and next week’s defense policy bill.

Luna’s leverage comes from one...

All eyes are on New York. The congressional primaries happen tonight, and in a city this Democratic, many of these races will effectively decide who heads to Congress. What I’m watching is a battle between Hakeem Jeffries and Zohran Mamdani. Mamdani is flexing. We’re going to see exactly how much of a kingmaker he is in New York City. Jeffries is backing incumbents like Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat, the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Mamdani is backing candidates including Brad Lander and Darlisa Avila Chevalier. The big question is whether Mamdani’s endorsements can translate into w...

Republicans are now arguing that their aggressive mid-decade redistricting campaign could preserve their House majority even in an environment where history is usually not on their side. According to a new memo from the National Republican Congressional Committee, newly redrawn maps have reduced the number of competitive districts and forced Democrats to compete in more Republican-leaning territory. Democrats dismiss that analysis, arguing that strong special election results and voter dissatisfaction with President Trump still favor a House takeover. My gut is still that Democrats will take the House. I do think it’s going to be closer than people th...

The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran was apparently signed over the weekend, but the text remains a mystery to most. Donald Trump says he’ll release it and even read it himself so nobody can misunderstand it. If it’s such good news, though, why not put it out right now? Israel isn’t a fan of it, nor are those who believe we’ve abandoned the Iranian people by making a deal with the IRGC. At the same time, there may be a silent majority that cares less about the politics and more about the pric...

The situation with Iran continues to feel like Groundhog Day, except this time, believe it or not, there may actually be movement.

Earlier this week, I mentioned that I had heard from people in the know that the United States military was coiled to strike Iran and was looking for either provocation or justification to resume major military activity. That appeared to happen when Iran shot down an Apache helicopter that was escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. We also learned that more than 100 million barrels of oil had moved through the strait under U...