The InvestSense Podcast

A week that began with hope ended with a reminder that geopolitics rarely moves in a straight line. The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday, formally opening a 60-day ceasefire and lifting the naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude slumped almost 7% over the week to just above US$80 a barrel, the lowest in three months, while the Dow closed at an all-time high midweek. By Sunday, however, fresh Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, Iranian threats to re-close the Strait, and pointed comments from President Trump had markets reaching for the seatbelts again.<...

The US/ Iran deal appears to change everything and risk assets responded accordingly. But Andrew Hunt warns against the temptation to declare the episode over and return to the pre-shock world of narrow, liquidity-fuelled equity gains. Oil-shock inflation is slow to appear and slow to leave. The headline has changed. The pipes have not.

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

Markets endured a week of whiplash. Brent crude pushed toward US$98 a barrel as Israel and Iran exchanged fire and a US Apache helicopter was reportedly shot down near the Strait of Hormuz. Then on Friday a single Truth Social post, President Trump cancelling planned strikes and claiming a deal had been "approved by all parties”, sent Brent back well below US$90, the Nasdaq up 3.5% and ten-year Treasury yields nine basis points lower in hours. President Trump said on Monday that a preliminary agreement to end the conflict had been signed by the U.S. and Iran. Markets remain cautious: ne...

Three months into the Iran-Israel conflict, markets have stopped treating it as breaking news and started treating it as the new wallpaper. Brent oil chopped between US$94 and US$98 a barrel last week as the latest Israel-Lebanon ceasefire wobbled, Hezbollah rejected the framework, and an Iranian oil tanker was hit in the Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The "rolling three weeks until resolution" narrative is now in its fourth month, and a long tail of higher input costs is feeding quietly into producer prices around the world.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au...

With the financial year now in its closing weeks, this update doubles as both a wrap of the past week and a stocktake of how we have arrived here.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/nasdaq-up-40-korea-up-100-and-a-software-rebound---the-year-so-far-in-review 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

Markets ended the week clinging to hope. President Trump posted on Sunday that a deal with Iran would be "announced shortly", but by Monday morning negotiators were being told not to rush.

Learn more: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/hormuz-hikes-and-the-first-australian-crack  

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

Markets in 2026 are a study in extremes. The AI-driven euphoria has lifted a narrow cohort of winners to unimagined highs, while a long tail of former tech market darlings have halved in value. For value-disciplined investors, this divergence is the opportunity set. Our conversation with Caroline Cai of Pzena Investment Management, a global value house we hold across many portfolios, neatly captured the current moment.

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

Markets finished the week in a now-familiar pattern: US equities punched to fresh record highs on AI momentum, oil ground higher on Gulf supply concerns, and inflation re-accelerated across the developed world.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/us-30-year-yields-top-5-as-inflation-broadens-beyond-fuel 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

A lot has happened in a short window. Tuesday night's budget delivered the most significant tax reform package in a generation, and we have spent the last 48 hours working through what it means for adviser practice. The headline measures, replacing the 50% CGT discount with inflation indexation, a new 30% minimum CGT rate from 1 July 2027, and the limiting of negative gearing to new builds, will be canvassed exhaustively elsewhere. We have chosen to stay in our lane and focus on what it changes for multi-asset portfolios and equity selection.

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment...

For Australian advisers the local story is the Federal Budget. Treasurer Chalmers delivered the long-flagged property tax reform: negative gearing now restricted to investment in new builds, and the 50% capital-gains discount replaced with indexation plus a minimum 30% tax rate (also waived for new builds). The 2026-27 underlying cash deficit prints  at $31.5 billion (roughly 1% of GDP), a $45 billion cumulative improvement on the forward estimates, though the 2026-27 cash balance remains at 2.1% of GDP. Markets took it in their stride; they are also waking up to the fact that the government is spending more despite the headline tax tightening, exactly the demand i...

April was an extraordinary month for risk assets. The Nasdaq surged 16.3%, the Nikkei 16.6%, and the S&P 500 10.8% — both US indices closing at fresh all-time highs on Friday. The DAX added 7.1%, the FTSE MIB 8.9%, and even the ASX managed 3.0%, although it lagged as the RBA's hawkish posture weighed on sentiment. It was the S&P 500's fifth consecutive weekly gain, carrying it above its pre-war level — a rebound driven by a robust US earnings season (84% beat rate across 63% of the S&P 500 reported) and, as Andrew Hunt argued last week, an estimated US$300–400 billion per month in stealth liquidity  from the Fed, Tr...

Global equity markets have defied gravity since the Iran conflict erupted and Andrew Hunt of Hunt Economics thinks he knows why. In this week's video, Hunt argues that an estimated $300 to $400 billion per month in stealth liquidity injections is keeping risk appetite alive while the real economy deteriorates. The wave can continue a little longer, but Hunt warns at some point central banks will be forced to choose between supporting asset prices and fighting inflation, and history suggests the transition will be abrupt.

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense...

The week that was supposed to deliver clarity on the Gulf crisis instead delivered its starkest divergence yet between US and European assets. With Brent crude surging 13% to US$108 — its highest since the conflict began — and the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, the transatlantic split in equity markets told a revealing story. The Nasdaq added 1.6% and the S&P 500 edged up 0.7%, buoyed by better-than-expected earnings and a remarkably resilient US consumer. In contrast, the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 2.0%, the FTSE 100 dropped 2.7%, and the ASX shed 2.1%. Japan was the week's standout, with the Nikkei rallying 2.9% on yen weakness and export optimism.

The traditional defensive playbook of shifting into government bonds and credit is under serious strain. With interest rate volatility effectively doubling over March and credit spreads offering limited cushion, the usual safe havens aren't behaving like safe havens. Christian Baylis of Fortlake Asset Management explains why cash may be the only truly defensive position right now, and what alternatives exist for portfolios that need more than that.

Learn more: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/the-defence-dilemma-why-hiding-in-bonds-isnt-what-it-used-to-be 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&u...

For a third consecutive week, equity markets rallied in the face of a conflict that, on the ground, has barely improved. The S&P 500 rose 4.5% to a fresh all-time high, recouping the entirety of its post-war losses, while the Nasdaq surged on the back of strong early earnings and renewed AI enthusiasm. European bourses gained but have yet to reclaim their pre-war peaks — the Euro Stoxx 50 added 2.2% and the DAX 3.8%, though both remain more exposed to the energy shock than their US counterpart. The ASX 300, by contrast, finished the week roughly flat, held back by a sell-off in the major ba...

The past week was again dominated by the Iran–US conflict, with markets riding a hope-and-disappointment cycle that began with a ceasefire announcement on 7 April and ended with the weekend's talks in Islamabad collapsing into stalemate. By Sunday, President Trump had declared a US naval counter-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pledging to interdict any tanker paying an "illegal toll" to Tehran — a marked escalation that sets up an abrupt mood reversal heading into this week's sessions.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/the-ceasefire-sparked-the-strongest-rally-in-weeks-but-it-didnt-last

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from...

Global equity markets ended last week higher, but the gains mask a fair degree of intraweek volatility driven almost entirely by the evolving conflict between the United States and Iran.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/iran-brinkmanship-dominates-as-markets-ride-a-rollercoaster-week 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

March 2026 will be remembered as the month geopolitics seized control of global markets. The US-led military intervention in Iran, which began on 1 March, evolved over four weeks from a shock event that most investors expected to be short-lived into what the IEA has labelled the greatest energy security threat in history. It has redrawn the map for equities, bonds, currencies and commodities in ways that will reverberate well beyond the month's end. 

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/march-2026-recap-the-month-that-changed-everything  

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: htt...

The headlines are alarming. Oil shocks, stagflation talk, investment decisions being deferred. But the case for panic may be premature. The Fed, US Treasury and PBOC have injected extraordinary amounts of liquidity into the global financial system, keeping markets remarkably buoyant even as the real economy deteriorates. Economist Andrew Hunt shares where to watch for signs the signal is turning from amber to red. 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

It was a week that began with cautious hope and ended in something close to alarm. Global share markets sold off sharply, bond yields surged, and oil climbed relentlessly as the war between the United States, Israel and Iran escalated well beyond what most investors had been pricing in just days earlier.

Learn more www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/war-oil-and-the-spectre-of-rate-hikes-define-a-brutal-week-for-markets 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

The Australian reporting season delivered more beats than misses, with miners and banks leading the way. But the more interesting story played out in software, companies reporting decent numbers only to be dragged back down by broader AI disruption fears. Tim Binsted, Head of Australian Equities shares which businesses have genuine moat friction and where the opportunities might sit as the sector reprices. 

Learn more www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/australian-reporting-season-wrap-up-robust-earnings-but-software-sector-faces-an-identity-crisis 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

Sixteen days into the US-Iran conflict, markets remain hostage to events in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has traced a remarkable arc since the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei on 28 February, surging from $67 to touch $120 on 9 March before settling around $101 at the time of writing. The pattern has become familiar: escalation drives oil higher, a de-escalation headline triggers a sharp reversal, then reality reasserts and prices grind back up. Critically, each cycle is establishing a higher floor.

Get access to the graphs www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/the-middle-east-dominates-everything-but-markets-still-resilient 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights f...

The software sector's reckoning has hit global growth managers hard, some down 15% or more in three months. So how has Munro Partners emerged largely unscathed? Portfolio manager Qiao Ma explains how disciplined risk management and genuine diversification made the difference, and where Munro is finding opportunity now. 

Learn more www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/shovels-not-software-where-munro-is-finding-growth-now 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

What began as a targeted air campaign has rapidly escalated into the defining market event of 2026. Operation Epic Fury, the joint US-Israeli military action against Iran, has entered its second week with no credible diplomatic off-ramp in sight. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG transits — has been effectively shut for nine days, with tanker traffic at zero and insurers refusing to cover passage. Brent crude surged 28% over the week, its largest weekly gain since 2020, closing Friday at $93 before gapping above $108 on Sunday. WTI posted its biggest weekly gain on record, rising 36%.

Get acce...

The US-Israeli strikes on Iran have markets running the familiar playbook - oil up, gold up, risk assets down. But Andrew Hunt sees a more nuanced picture. Central banks already have a quarter of a trillion dollars in liquidity ready to deploy over the coming weeks, which may stabilise the immediate shock.

Learn more www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/iran-strike-central-banks-will-probably-come-to-the-rescue-but-watch-for-cracks-in-credit 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

A volatile February ended with markets caught between competing forces: fading tariff uncertainty, a technology sector in flux, and a sharp geopolitical escalation in the Middle East that has injected fresh risk into the outlook.

Get access to the graphs:  www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/a-volatile-february-ends-with-geopolitics-front-and-centre 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

Andrew Hunt's outlook has turned notably more cautious since the previous conversation a few weeks earlier. The core thesis centers on a deterioration in global capital flows into the US, which he sees as the key vulnerability markets have been overlooking.

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

Whatever else happened in markets last week — and there was plenty — it was all overshadowed by a single event on Friday afternoon. The US Supreme Court, in a 6–3 ruling, struck down the bulk of President Trump's emergency tariffs, finding that IEEPA does not authorise the President to impose import duties. Trump immediately announced a replacement 15% global levy under Section 122 of the Trade Act, though that mechanism carries a 150-day time limit. It is a landmark constitutional moment, and markets are still digesting what comes next.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/the-week-the-supreme-court-moved-markets 

The past week delivered a tale of two markets. On one side, a reassuring U.S. inflation print and a surprisingly strong labour market report suggested the American economy remains on solid footing. On the other hand, a punishing rotation out of technology stocks reminded investors that the AI investment boom carries real risks and that concentration in a handful of mega-cap names can cut both ways.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/the-rotation-trade-gathers-pace 



Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.a...

Markets spent the first week of February grappling with an unusually dense set of cross-currents, an Australian rate hike, a crisis of confidence in big-tech capital spending, volatile commodity prices, and a US data picture clouded by the partial government shutdown. But beneath the headline volatility, the more interesting story may be what's happening under the surface: a rotation trade gaining momentum, unstable correlations, and a growing divergence between Australian and global monetary policy that is robbing Aussie diversified portfolios of their traditional currency cushion.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-navigate-rba-hike-ai-capex-jitters-and-a-growing-rotation-trade 

J...

Tassos Stassopoulos, founder of Trinetra Investment Management, has spent over two decades focusing on a different opportunity, the emerging market consumer. Trinetra’s approach has always eschewed the tech-heavy markets of North Asia in favour of economies where domestic consumption drives growth: Indonesia, China, Brazil, Peru, and Chile. 

The big driver of the emerging market indices recently has been Korean memory chips and Taiwanese semiconductor foundries. These are undoubtedly impressive businesses, but they present a problem: they move in lockstep with U.S. technology giants. For those seeking genuine diversification, looking elsewhere in the emerging world may...

The final week of January delivered a stark reminder that even the most powerful trends can reverse abruptly when the right catalyst emerges. Gold's precipitous 10% fall and silver's eye-watering 30% decline, dominated headlines, yet the month overall proved constructive for diversified portfolios.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/january-closes-with-golds-dramatic-reversal 



Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck 

A month after our year-end review, Economist Andrew Hunt's message when we spoke to him earlier this week had sharpened: the U.S. credit boom continues at a blistering pace, but the foreign capital that sustained 2025's rally is becoming erratic. The result is an increasingly binary outlook where timing matters more than ever.

Get access to the graphs: https://www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/the-pboc-holds-the-cards-january-2026-update-with-andrew-hunt



Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck 

Markets navigated a turbulent week as the collision of geopolitical uncertainty and shifting monetary policy expectations drove dramatic moves across asset classes, with Australian inflation data adding further fuel to an already volatile mix.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/gold-surges-and-the-dollar-slides-as-inflation-data-cements-australian-rate-hike-expectations 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck 

In our latest check-in with Fortlake’s Dr Christian Baylis from Fortlake Asset Management we discuss why Australian bonds are offering value, why credit quality matters more than chasing yield and where diversification can still be found in 2026.

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck 

Global markets experienced a turbulent week as investors juggled geopolitical uncertainty, shifting sector dynamics and the early stages of Q4 earnings season.

In short:
Money kept moving away from big tech into smaller companies.
The Russell 2000 outperformed for a tenth straight session while most of the Mag 7 declined. Importantly, more than 300 S&P 500 stocks were higher despite index weakness, showing a shift away from concentrated market leadership.

Economic data supported a ‘resilient but uneven growth’ narrative.
The U.S. job market remains solid and growth in t...

After a holiday period that saw the traditional Santa rally fail to materialise, 2026 has begun with renewed vigour across global markets. The rotation trade that defined much of 2025 appears to be reasserting itself, with emerging markets and global small caps leading the charge in early January trading.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-start-2026-with-momentum-but-caution-is-warranted  

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck

Andrew Hunt speaks with Jonathan Ramsay about how record foreign inflows, led by China, kept markets elevated despite weakening fundamentals. They explore why the composition of those flows has shifted and what early signs of reversal could mean for markets heading into 2026.

Learn more: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/2025-year-in-review-part-two-the-year-capital-flows-defied-expectations 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: https://www.investsense.com.au/investsense-insights?utm_source=Podcast+&utm_medium=MarketSenseCheck 

ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland made it clear at the 2025 Researcher Forum that private credit is now an enforcement priority, with the adviser channel squarely in focus. Done well, private credit plays an important role in the financial system, but ASIC has raised serious concerns around governance, transparency, fees and valuations across a sector that has grown 500% in a decade to more than $200 billion. In this week’s conversation, InvestSense Private Capital Specialist Joel Sasim and Betashares Director of Private Capital Jamie Fleiter unpack what this shift means for adviser due diligence and discuss Joel’s timely new paper on the topi...

The past week delivered a notable shift in market psychology, with investors increasingly grappling with the prospect that the next move for several central banks may be up rather than down, except for in the all important US market. Australian assets bore the brunt of this repricing, though the theme resonated globally.

Get access to the graphs: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/rate-hike-risks-resurface-across-major-economies 

Join the InvestSense Community to receive weekly insights from our investment team: www.investsense.com.au/industry-articles/markets-caught-between-shutdown-relief-and-valuation-reality