Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

The primaries are nearly finished, and Labor Day is behind us—that means it's officially midterm season! To mark the occasion, Henry catches up with Cook Political Report's Erin Covey to discuss the races that look competitive now in mid-September and how she'll gauge contests as we approach November. From consideration of surprising events and the movement of outside expenditures, Henry and Erin dive deep into the circumstances that might yield a good election return for either party in a midterm that's more of a toss-up than polls might suggest. 

Henry has tonight's RNC midterm convention in mind as h...

With all due respect to grammarians, when we at Beyond the Polls think of New Hampshire, hard facts and rock-solid political analysis from our friend Dante Scala are foremost in mind. In anticipation of Tuesday's Democratic primary, he and Henry discuss the tectonic political shift in the Granite State now that Jeanne Shaheen is retiring—along with the new presidential primary ordering that has pushed New Hampshire back in the Democratic Party's queue. 

Plus, Henry looks ahead to the midterms, finds a map made relatively favorable to Republicans, and warns Democrats aiming to take the House about the uni...

With the primary results in from the most competitive states, we're entering the calm-before-the-storm season of this year's midterm election. But rather than letting their guard down, top election analysts are bracing for another wacky cycle like the one that defied forecasts in 2o22. NBC's chief data analyst, Steve Kornacki, returns to Beyond the Polls to discuss how current conditions resemble those from four years back, and how he braces for the unpredictable before heading into live coverage as ballots pour in.

Plus, Henry offers messaging advice for Republican strategists—identifying the target audience and the pitch for stayi...

South Carolina Republicans are heading back to the voting booth for the Senate runoff to select their nominee. Their choice is between Ralph Norman, a self-described MAGA outsider who has represented the state's Fifth Congressional District since 2017, and Darline Graham, the Trump-endorsed incumbent appointed last month following the sudden passing of her brother Lindsey. 

For a survey of this sudden showdown in the Swamp State, Henry is joined by Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report. They consider how difficult it may be to call the race, as even in MAGA country, Trump may find his movement prone to...

Florida's political environment has transformed profoundly over the last few decades. Following its mid-decadal redistricting, the state is preparing for an unusually high number of close contests in next week's primary, especially on the Republican side. Peter Schorsh, founder and editor of Florida Politics, joins Henry to forecast the scattered storms hanging above Florida's panhandle (CD-02), Flagler County (CD-7), Tampa Bay (CD-14), the contest among political misfits over the southwestern frontier (CD-19), and the chaotic scramble across the way for redrawn territory in the densely populated South Florida metro area. 

Plus, Henry breaks down Francesca Hong's narrow loss f...

The Wisconsin state motto is one word: Forward. And after Tuesday's primary in Michigan, we're reminded again that the progressive left has the momentum in the Democratic Party. To dive into what this left-wing insurgency means for Wisconsin, Henry brings back the Badger State's premier election analyst, Craig Gilbert. 

Craig explains how Democratic Socialist gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong benefited from opponents' imploded campaigns, moving from fourth (at best) to the top of the field. He and Henry look to the coming general in Wisconsin 3, where Rebecca Cooke is expected to challenge Republican Derrick Van Orden in a rematch. T...

A primary-palooza is days away, with contests set for August 4th in Kansas, Missouri, Washington, and Virginia. But all eyes are on Michigan, a bellwether state with ambitious representatives tugging hard at it left, right, and center. Henry's here to shepherd us through the state's long list of battleground congressional districts. And, of course, he closely inspects the turnout trends and insider behaviors that portend a good day for Abdul El-Sayed and the DSA — but what will all this mean for the general? Tune in to find out!

Plus, Henry glances at a trio of ads featuring candidates Da...

This series is all about pushing past the dichotomies of American politics to better understand why voters prefer X to Y, Yea to Nay, or Red to Blue. Our friends at the Pew Research Center are of a like mind, so we asked Director of Politics Jocelyn Kiley to join Henry to discuss the center's new political typology: Beyond Red vs. Blue. Tune in to understand Pew's methods and analysis of the American electorate's breakdown, ranging from Leftward Progressives to the No Apologies Right, with an Order and Opportunity Left, a Tuned-Out Middle, and a Pragmatic and Polite Right among...

Partisan trends being what they are, it's increasingly rare to see an election actually decided in November. The parties matter more, the candidates a bit less. But that divide doesn't seem so big in the Grand Canyon State, and Arizonans like a maverick. Chuck Warren of Breaking Battlegrounds joins Henry to discuss the flamboyant characters vying for congressional districts 1, 5, and 6, along with the story behind Andy Biggs' surprisingly easy path to a general against incumbent Governor Katie Hobbs.

Plus, Henry breaks down the rules of the exceedingly interesting Senate elections coming up in Maine and South Carolina following t...

The Democratic Socialists of America have laid their plans, are on the march, and have been making steady gains, but established orders aren't toppled in a day... and there's trouble in paradise. Henry rants his way through the fall of Graham Platner, Abdul El-Sayed's edge in his race for Michigan's Senate seat, and Melat Kiros' victory in Colorado's 1st district.

Plus, we're back with an ad of the week as Wesley Bell defends his seat in Missouri in a rematch against Squad member Cori Bush.

America's birthday is almost here, and the semiquincentennial milestone imbues the annual celebration with special significance. For this reason, Henry sits down with the American Enterprise Institute's Karlyn Bowman to discuss her latest report, America at 250: Surveying Change and Continuity on Civic Values, a grand survey comparing American sentiments today with those of respondents nearly 30 years ago. Tune in to hear the surprising—and mostly reassuring!—findings on what's changed and what's stayed the same when Americans reflect on what it means to be American.

Americans all rightly make a great deal about our democracy. But the partisan element sets in quickly, and the incessant debate extends even beyond the candidates and initiatives on the ballot. Stephen Richer (a fellow of the Cato Institute and Harvard Kennedy School and former Maricopa County recorder) joins Henry to discuss past and contemporary efforts to address fundamental concerns about voting access and election integrity. 

Plus, we take two bites out of the Big Apple for this week's rant and ad of the week. Mayor Mamdani and his team of Democratic Socialists of America members won big o...

Start spreading the news: New Yorkers are hitting the polls next week, and the election is gonna be something wild. Cook Political's Erin Covey is our tour de force guide through the many candidates vying to represent the city's distinct locales, including a "Commie Corridor," which bumps up against the Wall Street district, which lies just south of the newlywed Upper East/Upper West Side "You've Got Mail District." Let's just say these neighbors have varied opinions on AI, Israel, the proper minimum wage and paid family leave. Our duo also hops over the Hudson to look into a couple...

We've got Senate runoffs in the Deep South next week, and that means we already know what's in the bag... right? Wrong! Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report's Senate and Governors Editor, returns to update us on a couple of surprisingly close Republican primaries. Tune in to hear about an Alabama outsider's formidable challenge to the Trump-endorsed candidate and the Republicans hoping to unseat a relatively strong John Ossoff in the increasingly purple Peach State. The duo also looks ahead to the next big Democratic Senate primary in Michigan.

Plus, Henry jets around the far corners of the country...

Though election watchers generally have to make some peace with selfish motives and unpleasant truths, there is more to democracy than the cynics would have you believe. Sean Trende is back for a chat on this theme as it applies to the redistricting wars. In 2020, the Virginia Supreme Court tasked Sean with helping draft the commonwealth's congressional map—the very map that state Democrats unsuccessfully tried to replace this year. He and Henry talk through the labor involved in drawing fair lines, and the unique challenges of doing so in an age of partisan gamesmanship.

Plus, we had a...

America is a change agent. Just this week, we witnessed another sign of that as unstoppable MAGA momentum pushed notorious Ken Paxton to a walloping victory over party loyalist John Cornyn. So how does one gauge public opinion in such a dynamic terrain? To answer that, Henry sits down with James Kanagasooriam of the research firm Focaldata. The duo discusses the history of polling and the current methods for addressing new challenges, such as response rate collapse and demographic biases toward politically engaged voters, and how these fit into the timeless task of interpreting the results. All of it adds...

Texas is known for super-sizing every endeavor, so amid another hyper-polarized election season you can bet on a spectacle with an ensemble cast down south. Scott Braddock of Quorum Report joins Henry this week to give us the inside scoop on the Cornyn-Paxton Senate runoff and a close look at the characters vying for redrawn House districts around the major metro areas.

Plus, Henry examines this week's primary results, paying special attention to the victory for polarization — evidenced by Thomas Massie's decisive defeat at the president's behest on the one hand, and the big win in PA-03 by new...

We've got seven primaries coming through this week, and that means we're on the move! First, Martha Zoller takes Henry on a tour of Georgia's crowded Republican contests to vie for John Ossoff's Senate seat, House districts, and the Governor's mansion in Atlanta. Next, we jump up north, where Erin Covey returns to give an in-depth analysis of key races in Kentucky and Pennsylvania. 

We're adless this week, but Henry has much to say about the Republican breakthrough beyond the gerrymander trenches and the implications it may have for House control come November. 

The old rhyme promises that May brings the flowers, and sure enough we're seeing early bursts of the election season bloom! This week, Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report guides us through three surprisingly close Republican primaries in the reliably red South. Get to know the candidates chasing open Senate seats in Alabama and Kentucky, and take a gander at Bill Cassidy's feverish fight in Louisiana to survive Trump's retribution for his 2021 vote in favor of Trump's impeachment. Expect strong weather and prepare for runoff. 

Plus, Henry looks at Tuesday's bloodbath in Indiana and Ron DeSantis's gerrymander a...

When the Trump administration launched its controversial mid-decade redistricting effort earlier this year, it was met not only with howls of outrage from Democrats but also with steadfast opposition from Republicans in Indiana. Now, the president and Governor Mike Braun are weighing in on the state senate primaries, endorsing challengers over the defectors. To take us through the twists and turns of this exceptional drama, Henry sits down with Brian Howey of State Affairs Pro Indiana.  

Plus, Henry dives into Florida's own GOP-friendly demography to consider whether Governor DeSantis will have better fortune in the map-making endeavor. And we...

It's no secret that ordinary Americans are often puzzled by the fights animating partisans inside the Beltway. A question emerges, however: What would our representatives talk about if they thought more like the people who elected them? Today, Henry sits down with Tim Goeglein of Focus on the Family to discuss his new book, What Really Matters: Restoring a Legacy of Faith, Freedom, and Family.

Plus, Henry breaks down how the economic fallout from the war with Iran is weighing down Trump's approval and the chances for Republican congressional hopefuls. And stay tuned until the end for a...

In the two-and-a-half years since the October 7th attacks, political observers have witnessed a substantial change in American sentiment toward Israel. Josh Kraushaar, editor-in-chief of Jewish Insider, joins Henry to consider the unsettling development and the implications of the breakdown in bipartisan support for our beleaguered ally. 

Plus: Returned from Hungary, Henry has a few observations that might be material to President Trump as his approval rating sags. And we take a look at a pair of dueling spots from the CA-40 primary to highlight the dominant theme of 2026 Republican advertising. 

Henry's in Hungary this week, calling in from Budapest to detail the mood around the Danube ahead of an election that's drawing unprecedented attention from the rest of the West. Tune in to get up to speed on Viktor Orbán, the longtime leader of the governing Fidesz Party, and his frenzied race against Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz member who now leads the suddenly invigorated Tisza Party.

Given the emphasis on national elections in our hyper-partisan era, one might forgive young people their ignorance about the workings of our many-layered federal system. But this week's guest, Chaz Nuttycombe, isn't your typical youth. He joins Henry to discuss his election site, State Navigate, which brings exceptional election analysis to the granular level.   

Plus, Henry looks at the presidential approval and generic ballot numbers from April 2018, and...let's just say it's time for a serious chat. We also examine ads from two cunning MAGA Republicans in Kentucky, exploring how they imply close ties to the president (who ha...

Some follow elections because they're in the business, others out of enthusiasm for the whole democracy thing, and if you've been around long enough, you can appreciate how much easier it is to track the races that matter—big and small, all over the world. One resource that's upped the ante for right-leaning political data fanatics is RRH Elections, and Henry sits down with two of RRH's contributors to hear how and why they built this top-notch site.

Plus, Trump's approval ratings have hit a new low for this term. Tune in to hear what's driving the latest dip and...

Thanks to the ballooning interest in political polling over the last few decades, Americans can closely track daily changes in matters like the president's approval rating. But it is the rare outfit like the Rainey Center that digs beyond basic questions to provide a substantive survey of American sentiments. This week, Henry sits down with Russ Walker, Rainey's Vice President of Policy, to discuss their recent polling reports on attitudes about affordability and the American Dream, immigration enforcement, and artificial intelligence. 

Plus, Henry breaks down the establishment Democrats' victory over restless progressives in Chicagoland, along with responses to th...

In one-party states, turnover is rare. So when Dick Durbin gives up the Senate seat he's held since 1997, we'd expect some movement. And, wow oh wow, are ambitious Illinis on the move! To introduce us to the ensemble casts crowding up key races, Henry sits down with Cook Political Report's Erin Covey. 

Henry also explains the Iron Law of Primaries and digs further into early findings on public attitudes about the war in Iran. Plus, we have competing ads from the Illinois Senate race, along with an attack ad against Thomas Massie that indicates midterm party priorities. (And w...

The first primaries for the 2026 midterms came last week, and Henry's flying solo to survey the results. Tune in for analysis on James Talarico's victory over TX-30 Rep. Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic Senate nomination; incumbent John Cornyn's top-finish against Ken Paxton in the runoff-bound Republican bid; House seats in the Lone Star State and North Carolina; along with thoughts on President Trump's recent approval ratings bump and polling on condition-based sentiments about the sudden onset of war in the Middle East. 

Plus, this week's dueling ads provide a contrast in style and sensibility that overshadows even the p...

Voters in Texas will cast ballots for aspiring nominees next Tuesday, so Gromer Jeffers of The Dallas Morning News returns to Beyond the Polls for a close look at the Lone Star State's key races: From James Talarico's attempt to catch Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic Senate nomination, to the seemingly runoff-bound duel between Ken Paxton and incumbent John Cornyn; and let's not forget some of the hotshots fighting for House seats: Brandon Harerra gunning for scandal-ridden Tony Gonzalez in TX-23 and Colin Alred making a go for familiar territory in the newly-redrawn TX-33.

Henry draws our attention ab...

Now that we're back into the campaign swing, Beyond the Polls is grooving into familiar rhythms. That means we've got a weekly rant, a great guest, and an ad or two worth diving into. This week, Ryan Girdusky, host of "It's a Numbers Game," joins Henry to discuss how the GOP is only just finding its footing a decade into its shakeup. 

Plus, Henry gives an update on Trump's approval rating, salutes Gallup for its many years of tracking that metric, and takes a look at a couple of bold primary spots: one out of the Texas Senate p...

You may recall the recent brouhaha over mid-decadal redistricting and the hand-wringing over blatantly partisan gerrymandering. But it isn't only cynical insiders who determine the balance of our House of Representatives; the American people play their part when they make long-distance moves. To talk all things reapportionment, Henry is joined again by Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball. 

Plus, Henry's got a trio of ads centered on the Democratic primary for John Cornyn's contested Senate seat.

It's rant time! The president's approval numbers are looking awfully similar to those in February of Trump's first term, and that depletion of political capital since Inauguration Day 2025 ought to make Republicans more than a little nervous. Henry breaks down public opinion polling on the hot-button issues in the headlines, along with an analysis of self-described MAGA and non-MAGA voters within the GOP. He also takes a look at the astounding fundraising numbers that midterm hopefuls are walking around with these days.

Plus, progressive influencer Kat Abughazaleh has her eye on the Illinois-9 House seat, and she has...

In safe and many-mandered Illinois, Democratic primary elections are where the action is. And when an abiding figure like Dick Durbin announces he's giving up his US Senate seat, you can expect an eventful season. To take a close look at the flurry of ambitious hopefuls in that race, along with the ensemble-sized casts running in US House districts 2, 7, and 9, Henry sits down with Greg Bishop, Illinois editor at The Center Square. 

Stay tuned til the end for breakdowns of subtle, yet effective ads from Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy and New Jersey 11 hopeful Brendan Gill.

It's been said that there's no place like Texas, and this year's Senate primaries seem to confirm the suspicion. We've got a cast of characters that includes incumbent John Cornyn up against the likes of AG Ken Paxton and TX-38's Wesley Hunt on the one side, and a couple of young challengers like Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico hoping to shake things up for Democrats. To cover these big, bold, brash races and some of the 14 open House primaries, Henry sits down with Gromer Jeffers of The Dallas Morning News.
 
Plus, Henry takes a close look at a...

With an election year upon us, it's time to brace yourselves for candidates making their way onto your television, tablet and smartphone screens with messages catered to inspire and outrage you, the coveted primary voter. This means Henry is back with the Ad of the Week, this time taking a close look at Illinois' Senate frontrunner Raja Krishnamoorthi, the Democrat looking to replace soon-to-be-retired Dick Durbin. For contrast, we head south to Texas, where Chip Roy aims to leverage his name recognition in a bid to be the Lone Star State's next Attorney General.

And in light of...

We're finally just 10 months away from the 2026 midterms everyone's been on about since Trump returned to office! So to get us off to a good start, Henry sits down again with RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende. The duo considers the political waves that may ripple out from two potentially seismic Supreme Court decisions: Callais v. Louisiana and National Republican Senatorial Committee v. FEC; they search for precision in assessing the president's needed approval rating among registered voters to keep the House; and they move over to the ostensibly safe Senate to determine the merits of Democrats' claim that their top-billed candidates can t...

It's time for the annual Beyond the Polls Festivus episode! That's right, before you immerse yourself entirely into the holiday spirit, join Henry for one last rant of 2025. On his naughty list you'll find pollsters with dodgy models; an unrestrained Mr. President, who's back to tweeting and ugly truthing his way into unpopularity; and who can forget the centrist Democrats? Or, wait...how could we not forget them when they fail to deliver results? 

But it ain't all bad! Stay tuned to the end for credit given to this year's great feats of strength, shown both by the pr...

One week out from Thanksgiving, Henry's back in a mood to rant! He starts out in Tennessee to bring some clarity to the mixed messages you may be receiving from analyses of the special election. Next, he looks at how the economy and the shutdown may be weighing down Trump's approval rating, and considers how the dealmaker-in-chief could get his groove back. And finally, he takes a look at Marjorie Taylor Greene's decision to resign, considering how this and other coming retirements will complicate the lives of partisan leaders who have to worry about not only their opponents in Congress...

American politics is so full of dazzling spectacles — campaigns and rallies, gotcha questions and scandals — that it's often lost on even knowledgeable spectators how much process matters in turning a candidate into a nominee. The Democratic National Committee is thinking along these lines as 2028 approaches, as evidenced by the Rules and Bylaws Committee's October resolution to consider changes to its nominating calendar. Longstanding member and Brookings fellow Elaine Kamarck returns to the show to take us to primary school, explaining why the process has worked as it has and what might be in store for the party going forward.

One consolation of defeat is that it provides an opportunity to adapt to reality. Victors, on the other hand, tend to get lost in the high. Just a week before the Democratic Party's landslide last Tuesday,  Simon Bazelon released the "Deciding to Win" report in the hopes of persuading liberal elites that they're alienating moderates within their traditional ranks. 

While the 70-page fact sheet has not been especially well-received on Bluesky, Simon gets a warm welcome from Henry, friend of political data analysts all. The duo discusses the party's liberal slide since 2012 and what the "rising American electorate" thi...