The Weekly Trend

In this episode of The Weekly Trend, Dave Zarling and Ian McMillan examine an S&P 500 stuck in a prolonged trading range as market leadership continues to shift beneath the surface. Technology and semiconductors struggle at key technical levels, while Healthcare and Energy show improving relative strength. They also explore the sharp contrast between bullish retail investors and defensive institutions, weakening market breadth, and the evolving momentum trends reflected in ADPV's changing holdings. With major indices testing important support levels and market participation remaining narrow, is this simply a healthy consolidation after a powerful rally, or is the market...

In this episode of The Weekly Trend, Dave Zarling and Ian McMillan examine the growing divergence between the cap-weighted indices and the average stock. They discuss weakness in semiconductors, AI-related stocks, and mega-cap technology, while Energy and Healthcare show improving relative strength. Small caps and emerging markets remain under pressure, regional banks are flashing caution, and a strengthening U.S. dollar adds another potential headwind. With volatility rising and midterm elections approaching, is the market setting up for a deeper correction toward the 200-day moving average, or are we witnessing a rotation that could eventually strengthen market participation? The...

In this episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan break down a market sitting near all-time highs despite significant damage beneath the surface, with nearly 60% of S&P 500 stocks more than 20% below their own all-time highs. They discuss the continued leadership from technology and semiconductors, the potential for breadth to finally expand, and whether beaten-down areas of the market can catch up or the strongest trends simply keep getting stronger. The conversation also examines washed-out breadth readings, bearish investor sentiment, rising money-market allocations, higher oil and interest rates, widening credit spreads, a strengthening dollar, and the surprising resilience of Bitcoin...

In this episode of The Weekly Trend, David Zarling and Ian McMillan examine a market sending dramatically different signals above and below the surface. The S&P 500 remains near its highs while the Nasdaq, technology, and several areas of semiconductor leadership push toward or into new highs, but underneath the indexes, breadth has deteriorated sharply, with a large percentage of stocks already experiencing significant corrections. David and Ian break down whether this washout is setting the stage for a broadening Q4 rally or whether the weakness underneath the surface eventually pulls the major indexes lower. They discuss semiconductor leadership...

In Episode 314, David Zarling and Ian McMillan break down a market that continues to frustrate investors with months of sideways price action despite the major indexes remaining relatively close to their highs. They dig into deteriorating breadth, extremely low stock correlations, elevated dispersion, bearish sentiment, and the growing number of S&P 500 stocks already experiencing meaningful corrections beneath the surface. The conversation also covers energy’s continued leadership, fading international and small-cap relative strength, improving action in parts of crypto, and the remarkably small number of stocks that have cleared their June highs and gone on to new all-time hi...

  In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss market breadth and the dispersion between stocks within the S&P 500 and the index itself, sector performance and more specifically how Energy continues to outperform, treasury yields, credit spreads, volatility, and seasonality.  

 In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the continued sideways move in the S&P 500, dispersion analysis of stocks within the S&P 500, cryptocurrencies that are showing strength, international equities, whether we are going to see areas that lead early in the year taking back the reins to end the year, and which areas of transports are looking the best. 

In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss the rough look out of the Russell 2000, the poor performance out of Industrials except for Marine Shipping. They also discuss the potential failed breakdown in long-term U.S. Treasuries, Cryptocurrencies, Semiconductors, and market breadth. 

In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the Russell 2000, Basic Materials areas of the market like FCX, Copper Miners, Gold Miners, Silver Miners, and the relative charts of the miners to the physical metal. They also discuss the recent price action in Biotechnology, Energy, and Regional Banks and how areas like that can sometimes perk up towards the end of a market cycle, U.S. Treasuries, interest rates, and risk on/risk off metrics in the fixed income markets. 

In this week's episodeIn this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 is still above the range and 7600, equal-weight to cap-weighted relationships, the strength out of marine transportation stocks, market breadth, interest rate cycles, gambling versus investing, and real estate cycles. 

In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss the S&P 500 getting above 7600, areas of the market that have led so far out of the range, precious metals, precious metals miners, fixed income, and credit spreads. 

 In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss the inability of  broad financials, insurance, and healthcare to hold gains made earlier in the week, how European financials and larger global banks continue to stand out, interesting relative relationships, like growth versus value and micro caps versus mega caps. They also discuss the breakdown in long-term US treasuries, recent pullback in the US Dollar, and the continued back and forth between the Magnificent Seven constituents.  

 In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the continued chop fest, how the Magnificent Seven is a red flag, although at the same time Financials and Transportation stocks look good, which aids the bullish thesis that this consolidation resolves in the direction of the primary trend. They also discuss if the mega cap tech and Magnificent Seven era is over, what is going on with Consumer Staples, Utilities, and is it interest rate or inflation driven. Other topics discussed are tangible assets, the U.S. Dollar, the SpaceX IPO, and the next generation of market technicians. 

 In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 continuing to be rangebound, some of the potential concerns with price action of the Nasdaq, margin calls in South Korea, areas of the market holding up well and trying to go out to all time highs. They also discuss which commodities are doing well, especially with the strong U.S. Dollar, international leaders year-to-date, long-term treasuries and interest rates.  

In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the current consolidation, what they are seeing out of financials, specifically banks, European financials, industrials, small cap areas of the market, like biotech, and improved breadth. 

 In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the the recent rise in the U.S. Dollar and how that is interesting when paired with Emerging Markets and Small Caps outperformance. They also discuss the current range the S&P 500 has been in since May, the failed breakout in long-term interest rates, market breadth, and thinking in terms of percentages rather than nominal dollar values. 

 In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the SpaceX IPO taking place today, how the different indices are treating SpaceX, areas of the market that are trying to breakout to new all-time highs, the recent price action for banks and the U.S. Dollar. They also discuss what they would like to see out of the consumer discretionary sector, how transports are still strong, and the World Cup kicking off this week.  

 In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss the SpaceX IPO and treatment from major indices and the tough week for cryptocurrencies and commodities. They also discuss the lackluster market breadth and the continued thin market and the strong move from the U.S. Dollar.  

 In this week's episode, David Zarling, Ian McMillan, and Kevin Firari discuss Nvidia performance versus Semiconductors and the broad market as a whole, areas of the market that are underperforming, equal weight S&P 500 (RSP) out to all time highs, recent AAII survey results, interesting names within the Nasdaq that are performing well, fixed income, and potential rate hikes. 

In Episode 299, David Zarling and Ian McMillan break down a market that remains heavily driven by semiconductors, with tech and energy the only sectors above their relative 200-day lines versus the S&P 500. They discuss the dominance of AI-related leadership, emerging markets’ semiconductor exposure, Apple’s relative strength, and whether software could benefit from a rotation if AI enthusiasm broadens. The conversation also weighs growing warning signs beneath the surface, including weak breadth, rising rates, struggling financials and homebuilders, and the possibility that the market is either setting up for rotation or becoming increasingly vulnerable after a narrow advance.

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the areas of the market at all time highs, including the Magnificent Seven, and how bullish it is for market participants being willing to buy at all time highs. They also discuss international areas that continue to perform well, whether we are witnessing a similar period to the dot com bubble of the late 90's and early 2000's, along with other macroeconomic narratives that are at play, and how the narratives truly don't matter at the end of the day.  

 In this week's episode David and Kevin discuss the areas of the market going out to all-time highs, the return profile if you buy at all time highs, and the continued effect semiconductors, storage, and electronic components is having across multiple industries and sectors. They also discuss the areas of international equities that are performing well, how international performance is also tilted towards semiconductor exposure, the Magnificent Seven, bearish sentiment continuing, market breadth, and is the divergence between equity indices and risk-on areas a fixed income.  

 In this week's episode Ian and Kevin discuss the continued strength out of Semiconductors and Technology, while other areas of the market failed to reach or surpass previous highs. They also discuss the strength out of Asia while Latin America cools off, Bitcoin, Small Caps, and that they would like to see risk-on behavior continued in the fixed income space. 

In Episode 295 of the Weekly Trend podcast, David and Ian break down the market’s stunning return to new all-time highs, unpacking what the sharp V-shaped recovery means for investors, advisors, and anyone still waiting for a pullback that may never come. They explore the significance of the S&P 500 reclaiming its 200-day moving average, the psychology of chasing strength after a fast rebound, why weak breadth still deserves attention, and how leadership from semiconductors, AI, crypto, and other high-beta areas may be signaling a renewed risk-on environment. The conversation also dives into the limits of narrative-driven investing, the va...

In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 being back above a 200 day moving average, where do you start with reconstructing your portfolio, the strength out of semiconductors and other risk-on areas of the market. They also discuss how software, private credit, Bitcoin, MAGS, and FNGS continue to lag. Other topics discussed are International equities and is the move in oil and energy over? 

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 moving below 6500, continued strength early in the week followed by weakness moving into the weekend, Magnificent Seven and mega-cap tech leading to the downside again, the relationship between energy stocks and oil, international areas holding up well on a relative basis, and what they are seeing in fixed income and commodities.  

 In this week's episode Ian and Kevin discuss the major indices now below their 200-day moving averages, what it would look like if the S&P 500 does not find support at 6500, the rough look for long-term treasuries and fixed income in general, trade-weighted U.S. Dollar fighting to get back above 100, the performance out of energy and how that parallels 2022 behavior, and how international equities need to find support.  

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the bullish engulfing candles witnessed on Monday, but no follow-through in sight with the S&P back below 6800. They also discuss the relationship between oil and energy prices, when else have we seen Financials be the worst performer to start the year, breadth deterioration, what it means if XLP breaks down while outperforming the rest of the market on a relative basis, fixed income and interest rates, international equities, and what is going on with Private Credit. Also discussed is precious metals, precious metals miners, changes in membership of the S&P...

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the continued chop in the S&P 500, bearish sentiment, retail buying, energy stocks with the increase in oil prices, support and resistance, theses for the range in the S&P 500 being further consolidation and then a move higher, or the forming of a market top.  

 In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P 500 continuing to be rangebound, sector rotation and industry performance during different points of the market cycle. They also discuss what it would look like if there is a mid-year 8-12% correction which would be perfectly normal with mid-term year seasonality. Other topics discussed is cryptocurrencies, Nvidia earnings reaction, materials and miners, microcaps, international equities, interest rates, private credit, and the U.S. Dollar.  

 In this week's episode David and Kevin discuss the S&P 500 continuing to be within a tight range, bearish market sentiment with large amounts of short selling, what would happen if the Magnificent 7 and software begin to participate to the upside, the continued strength internationally, precious metals, continued strength in value sectors, and what could conflict in Iran mean for the market.  

In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the S&P remaining range-bound, differentiation between S&P 500 performance and the average performance of it's constituents. They also discuss market breadth, sentiment, the continued drawdown in software, how homebuilders are starting to look interesting along with transportation stocks even with the rough week for trucking stocks. They also discuss seasonality moving into the second half of February, interest rates and what a move lower in rates might mean for the broader market. 

In this week's episode David and Ian discuss the move to the downside in Bitcoin and other crypto assets, the poor performance from mega cap names and software, the strength out of industrials, financials, small caps and mid caps. They also talk about market breadth, precious metals and materials, potential false breakdowns, and risk on and risk off behavior.

 In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss how the strongest areas appear to be getting hit the hardest to close out the week, an update on seasonality, sector rotation dynamics, if the move in precious metals and mining is over, the VIX, and large cap tech participation. 

In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss the continued move to the upside in precious metals and the relative relationship between the metals and their miners. They also discuss the 5-standard deviation move in Japanese Bonds, signs for risk on/risk off behavior, international equities, energy, small caps, January seasonality, market breadth, crypto, and fixed income. 

In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss how mega cap growth names are lagging behind, while small caps and international equities continue to outperform. Does this mean 2026 will be a year of differentiation? They also discuss precious metals, crypto, interest rates, and some market relationships they find interesting. 

In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss how metals and mining are off to a good start this year, the Russell 2000 with a nice setup again, international equities, areas of Financials that are performing well, a mixed bag from semiconductors, and crypto miners. 

In this week's episode, David and Ian discuss areas of the market that had a good year in 2025, like international equities, metals and mining, precious metals, and also what areas had a poor year in 2025. They also discuss semiconductors in the broader context of market sector makeup and an update on the Santa Claus rally. 

In this week's episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss growth versus value, high beta versus low volatility, market cap relative relationships, and other risk-on/risk-off relationships to close out the year and what might be in store in 2026. They also discuss international equities, Bitcoin, and how interest rates continue to appreciate against Fed rate cuts. 

In this week's episode, David Zarling and Ian McMillan discuss if we are seeing rotation out of tech and growth areas of the market into value and small cap focused areas. They also discuss international areas that are holding up well, bitcoin, poor performance from the consumer staples sector, precious metals, and materials.