Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

We recently got the April 2026 data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, which tells the continued story of weakness across the country, but not uniformly so. For context, note that their House Price Index is now 15.9% down from peak on average across the country, or excluding Auckland, down 10.9%. Despite this, … Continue reading "New Zealand Property Remains In The Doldrums With More Questions Ahead."

The latest data from the ABS showed that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5 per cent in April, as the number of employed people fell by 19,000 in April, while the number of unemployed people rose by 33,000. Actually, the total number of people employed fell for the first time this year, driven … Continue reading "Australian Unemployment Climbs, As Expected… But…"

The outlook for inflation ahead is getting more concerning, as the lasting impacts of the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, plus the recent budget announcements, and the already higher for longer bond rates merge with the existing pattern of inflation lodged about the RBA’s target range, before this all comes home to roost. Meantime, … Continue reading "The Inflation Picture Darkens, As The Property Market Stalls…"

In this edit of our live show in which we examined the impact of the budget and other economic factors, like the ongoing closure of the Straits of Hormuz, on the Australian Property Market, and the broader economy. Will prices fall? Will the proposed changes drive rents up? To decode the implications I was joined … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Is The Australian 30-year Property Super-cycle Over? With Leith van Onselen"

In our post-budget conversation we look at the potential impacts on the property market, and what may lay ahead. Edwin brings us another insight into how to approach things at the moment, as we delve into the policy changes and join the dots. This is not a budget which will make more property available, despite … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Richard Wiles from Morgan Stanley after the budget on Tuesday suggested that the Australian 30-year property super-cycle is likely over, with significant impact on Bank valuations because of weakening credit demand. Years ago, Richard and I use to work on the JP Morgan Property reports, which for years were jointly published with DFA, so I … Continue reading "Is The Australian 30-year Property Super-cycle Over?"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. While last week AI drove most markets higher, concerns about accelerating inflation surged this week, triggering a spike in global bond yields amid the likelihood of higher-for-longer … Continue reading "Market Roller-coaster Drops On Higher Interest Rate Fears, As AI Bets Fade"

Journalist Tarric Brooker and I catch up for another end of week chat, and dive into the budget, the RBA rate hike, the fallout from recent polls, and the broadening impact of the blockage in the Straits of Hormuz. Tarric brought along his latest charts, you can follow along here: https://x.com/AvidCommentator/status/2055170656778813537 Across the board it … Continue reading "Yet Another Brick In The Wall… With Tarric Brooker"

The ABS this week released their latest data on Lending Indicators which is a quarterly estimate of new borrower-accepted finance commitments for housing, personal and business loans and also the Wage Price Index for March which measures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee … Continue reading "New Property Loans And Wages Growth Down; It’s All Fine!"

This is my edit of our monthly economic update, with a focus this time on the outcomes from the budget, and its impact on housing. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

This is an edit of a live show where we examined the latest from our surveys and did a deep dive into specific post codes: Contents 27:32 Parkwood 421430:29 Goulburn 258033:43 Coomera 420936:40 Biggera Waters 421539:14 Bayeau Bay 226141:28 Ringwood North 313443:26 Coffs Harbour 245045:09 Nhill 341847:15 Hunters Hill 232351:14 Bella Vista 215353:08 470254:39 346556:06 … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Households Facing Into The Gale: Latest From Our Surveys!"

In our latest show Edwin and I kick the tyres on the upcoming budget, which will be full of announcables, but will it make any difference? We also look at the latest gloom from the property writers and ask what are they missing? And Edwin has some more sage advice about property, and life. Check … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Australian Property appears to be at a significant turning point, with the realisation that prices can go down, as well as up now becoming a reality. So today we examine some of the latest market dynamics in the light of the upcoming budget on Tuesday, where Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Tuesday’s budget would have a … Continue reading "Red Alert: Property In Turmoil As Government Seeks To Support And Crush At The Same Time!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Markets seem to be in self-reinforcing feedback loop, with the MSCI Global Index up another 2.38% over the past week, while the All Asia Ex Japan rose … Continue reading "The Madness Of Markets Disconnects From Reality!"

After the latest RBA rate rises, and the Gulf War impact, we explore the latest from our household surveys to see the impact of the financial pressures they are facing. We see a rise in mortgage related stress in particular. We also update our scenarios based on the latest from the RBA and explore the … Continue reading "Households, Facing Into The Gale, Grit Their Teeth And Hope!"

Australia is one of the world’s biggest LNG exporters, but according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), east coast gas supplies could fall well short of demand from 2028, “despite there being sufficient reserves and resources for at least the next decade”. And Australians are exposed to the full international price of gas, … Continue reading "Australia Finally Reserves East Coast Gas … But…"

On Tuesday the RBA lifted the cash rate to a stonking 4.35%, in the third move in three decisions. Those following this channel would have not been surprised, as I have been signalling this for some time. This despite the pressures that many households are under as costs rise, inflation bites and real incomes track … Continue reading "Financial Realities Hit Home After The RBA Rate Hike!"

In this live show we examined the contention between record markets in the US, driven by AI investment and the real impact of the Gulf War. Will the former “Trump” the latter? I was joined by Head of Investments Damien Klassen. We also covered the RBA cash rate decision too! Go to the Walk The … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Will The AI Boom Save The Markets, Despite The War? With Damien Klassen"

This week Edwin, our property insider and I go though the latest data on building approvals, auctions and listing and ask whether the MSM media commentary about potential property price falls makes sense. We also examine the latest issues facing high-rise and approvals ease back, while demand for stand alone property rockets. Edwin also make … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Perhaps never before has it been so important to delve into the market’s weird behaviour, as traders are now back on the AI hype, following tangible results … Continue reading "The AI Candle Draws The Markets’ Moths, Despite The Economic Disaster Ahead!"

Another outing with journalist Tarric Brooker as week at the clocks counting down to potential disaster as a result of the Gulf War. From oil, to food and more things are likely to deteriorate from here, even if there is some real peace agreement with Iran. We go though some critical slides to underscore the … Continue reading "Slip-Sliding Away; The Clocks Are Ticking: With Tarric Brooker"

The spate of Central Bank meetings this week, with Canada and The Fed done, the Bank of England today and the RBA next week, continues to stress the high-levels of uncertainty relating to monetary policy, thanks to the Gulf Conflict, and the trajectory of energy prices. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned the energy shock … Continue reading "Central Banks Now Have A Perfect Alibi!"

Inflation, which was already about the RBA’s target before the Gulf War spiked up to 4.6 per cent in March driven in part by the Middle East conflict which strangled global oil supply and pushed up petrol prices, and note that the data did not capture the impact of the Albanese government’s halving of the … Continue reading "Annual CPI Inflation: Highest Since September 2023 (And Rising)!"

This is an edit of a live show in which we examined the fall out coming to the property market as recent Government policy collides with the consequence of the Gulf War. Will the upcoming Budget make things better or worse? I was joined by Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist and Co-founder of Macrobusiness. Go … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: The Perfect Property Storm Ahead? With Leith van Onselen"

Join our property insider Edwin Almeida and I for another wander down the latest property news, as we look at migration, property market dynamics, and changes to EV policies, and the rental markets. Below the surface, the simplistic messages from some, are shown up as half truths when you go deep, as we always do! … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

The Australian property market only goes one way, if you believe the Real Estate Agents, the online spruikers, and even many ordinary households as we often see the belief that prices almost religiously double every 10-year coming though in our surveys. But of course, the reality is much more complex. This is partly because we … Continue reading "Will “The Perfect Storm” Hit The Property Market?"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Something simply does not add up. US equities surged higher in their final session of the week, bolstered by hopes of peace talks between the US and … Continue reading "Instrument Warning: Is A Market Correction Incoming?"

This week we got an interesting report from the RBA , contained in their April 2026 Bulletin titled Cash Use in Australia: What the 2025 Consumer Payments Survey Tells Us. Citing recent comments from Governor Michelle Bullock, they say the RBA is committed to supporting the Australian Government’s policy objective to ensure cash remains a … Continue reading "The Uncomfortable Truth About Cash Use In Australia!"

U.S. stock futures edged lower on Thursday, as investors kept tabs on tensions in the Middle East and gauged an incoming raft of corporate results. Although oil prices have eased back from an initial spike after the start of the war in late February, they are still well above pre-conflict levels. Worries have abounded that … Continue reading "Are Markets Misreading The Middle East War?"

Austral is a suburb of Sydney, in the state of New South Wales, Australia. It is 42 kilometres south-west of the Sydney central business district, in the local government area of the City of Liverpool. Austral and Leppington North have been rezoned to accommodate significant population growth, with at least 17,350 new homes planned across … Continue reading "How Planning, Property, And Austral Collided!"

Another dive into the latest property news with our insider Edwin Almeida. How should we interpret the latest “home prices are falling” news? What do the latest numbers tell us? How will the economy develop, and how will the property market be impacted? How will the rise of Indian Manufacturing change the migration story? Are … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Hold my beer, because according to an article in the AFR, Sydney, Melbourne house prices are going backwards, even though the others are not! Quoting the daily data from Cotality, they say rolling daily index shows home values in Sydney and Melbourne have been shrinking since February and were 0.04 per cent down as of … Continue reading "Oh No! Property Prices Are Falling!"