Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

After the latest RBA rate rises, and the Gulf War impact, we explore the latest from our household surveys to see the impact of the financial pressures they are facing. We see a rise in mortgage related stress in particular. We also update our scenarios based on the latest from the RBA and explore the … Continue reading "Households, Facing Into The Gale, Grit Their Teeth And Hope!"

Australia is one of the world’s biggest LNG exporters, but according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), east coast gas supplies could fall well short of demand from 2028, “despite there being sufficient reserves and resources for at least the next decade”. And Australians are exposed to the full international price of gas, … Continue reading "Australia Finally Reserves East Coast Gas … But…"

On Tuesday the RBA lifted the cash rate to a stonking 4.35%, in the third move in three decisions. Those following this channel would have not been surprised, as I have been signalling this for some time. This despite the pressures that many households are under as costs rise, inflation bites and real incomes track … Continue reading "Financial Realities Hit Home After The RBA Rate Hike!"

In this live show we examined the contention between record markets in the US, driven by AI investment and the real impact of the Gulf War. Will the former “Trump” the latter? I was joined by Head of Investments Damien Klassen. We also covered the RBA cash rate decision too! Go to the Walk The … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Will The AI Boom Save The Markets, Despite The War? With Damien Klassen"

This week Edwin, our property insider and I go though the latest data on building approvals, auctions and listing and ask whether the MSM media commentary about potential property price falls makes sense. We also examine the latest issues facing high-rise and approvals ease back, while demand for stand alone property rockets. Edwin also make … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Perhaps never before has it been so important to delve into the market’s weird behaviour, as traders are now back on the AI hype, following tangible results … Continue reading "The AI Candle Draws The Markets’ Moths, Despite The Economic Disaster Ahead!"

Another outing with journalist Tarric Brooker as week at the clocks counting down to potential disaster as a result of the Gulf War. From oil, to food and more things are likely to deteriorate from here, even if there is some real peace agreement with Iran. We go though some critical slides to underscore the … Continue reading "Slip-Sliding Away; The Clocks Are Ticking: With Tarric Brooker"

The spate of Central Bank meetings this week, with Canada and The Fed done, the Bank of England today and the RBA next week, continues to stress the high-levels of uncertainty relating to monetary policy, thanks to the Gulf Conflict, and the trajectory of energy prices. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned the energy shock … Continue reading "Central Banks Now Have A Perfect Alibi!"

Inflation, which was already about the RBA’s target before the Gulf War spiked up to 4.6 per cent in March driven in part by the Middle East conflict which strangled global oil supply and pushed up petrol prices, and note that the data did not capture the impact of the Albanese government’s halving of the … Continue reading "Annual CPI Inflation: Highest Since September 2023 (And Rising)!"

This is an edit of a live show in which we examined the fall out coming to the property market as recent Government policy collides with the consequence of the Gulf War. Will the upcoming Budget make things better or worse? I was joined by Leith van Onselen, Chief Economist and Co-founder of Macrobusiness. Go … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: The Perfect Property Storm Ahead? With Leith van Onselen"

Join our property insider Edwin Almeida and I for another wander down the latest property news, as we look at migration, property market dynamics, and changes to EV policies, and the rental markets. Below the surface, the simplistic messages from some, are shown up as half truths when you go deep, as we always do! … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

The Australian property market only goes one way, if you believe the Real Estate Agents, the online spruikers, and even many ordinary households as we often see the belief that prices almost religiously double every 10-year coming though in our surveys. But of course, the reality is much more complex. This is partly because we … Continue reading "Will “The Perfect Storm” Hit The Property Market?"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Something simply does not add up. US equities surged higher in their final session of the week, bolstered by hopes of peace talks between the US and … Continue reading "Instrument Warning: Is A Market Correction Incoming?"

This week we got an interesting report from the RBA , contained in their April 2026 Bulletin titled Cash Use in Australia: What the 2025 Consumer Payments Survey Tells Us. Citing recent comments from Governor Michelle Bullock, they say the RBA is committed to supporting the Australian Government’s policy objective to ensure cash remains a … Continue reading "The Uncomfortable Truth About Cash Use In Australia!"

U.S. stock futures edged lower on Thursday, as investors kept tabs on tensions in the Middle East and gauged an incoming raft of corporate results. Although oil prices have eased back from an initial spike after the start of the war in late February, they are still well above pre-conflict levels. Worries have abounded that … Continue reading "Are Markets Misreading The Middle East War?"

Austral is a suburb of Sydney, in the state of New South Wales, Australia. It is 42 kilometres south-west of the Sydney central business district, in the local government area of the City of Liverpool. Austral and Leppington North have been rezoned to accommodate significant population growth, with at least 17,350 new homes planned across … Continue reading "How Planning, Property, And Austral Collided!"

Another dive into the latest property news with our insider Edwin Almeida. How should we interpret the latest “home prices are falling” news? What do the latest numbers tell us? How will the economy develop, and how will the property market be impacted? How will the rise of Indian Manufacturing change the migration story? Are … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Hold my beer, because according to an article in the AFR, Sydney, Melbourne house prices are going backwards, even though the others are not! Quoting the daily data from Cotality, they say rolling daily index shows home values in Sydney and Melbourne have been shrinking since February and were 0.04 per cent down as of … Continue reading "Oh No! Property Prices Are Falling!"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. We saw dominoes falling in the middle east this week as Israel who has been battling Hezbollah, a key ally of Tehran and Lebanon agreed to a … Continue reading "The Hormuz Mirage Fools The Markets!"

In the latest edition of our regular show journalist Tarric Brooker and I take a deep dive into the Australian property market, and how it has changed, thanks to Government intervention and what may lay ahead. We also examine the latest on the Gulf War, and the fallout in terms of oil supply, and again … Continue reading "Is Housing Toast? With Tarric Brooker"

We are in a phony war at the moment, as the real effects of the Gulf War, and the spike in fuel prices are yet to hit the rear-facing data as reported by the ABS and others. The forward-looking confidence data has crashed of course, with consumer sentiment down as reported by the MI and … Continue reading "Rear View Mirror Says Employment Is Fine; Just Don’t Look Ahead!"

As the Gulf War hangs in the balance and the Straits of Hormoz remain shut, or nearly so, economists are having a field day with a tranche of gloomy economic scenarios. Actually, given the great state of uncertainty which exists, with prospective talks resuming, according to Trump, and rumours of China putting pressure on Iran … Continue reading "Is An Economic Crisis Incoming?"

In this live show edit we examined the consequence of the Gulf War in the light of Crypto being used to pay for passage across the Straits. This is consequential, so does this represent a battle for the basis of money as well as Oil? The naval blockade at the eastern gate catches ships. The … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: The Money Of War Versus The Money Of Peace: With Adam Stokes"

This week Edwin, our property insider and I dive into the latest from the government on advertising relating to the fuel situation, and for foreign first time buyers (sic). We also pull apart the latest stats on listings and sales and contrast the reality on the ground, with the MSM click-bait. Things are getting interesting, … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Last week we got articles suggesting that buyers worry about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and sellers rushing to offload their homes have cooled the property market. The latest data from the weekend certainly confirmed ongoing weakness. The clock is ticking on weaker home values. It is indeed likely that the interest rates … Continue reading "Tick-Tock: Home Prices Under Pressure As Markets Fade."

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Whilst these shows tend to get less views and likes compared with our others, they remain the most critical to me, as it helps to grasp what … Continue reading "Markets Wrestle With Alternate Realities As “Peace Talks” Hopes Belie The Incoming Economic Storm!"

For some long time, there have been questions about the quality of mortgage loans held by Australian banks. Underwriting standards require them to make appropriate inquiry before lending, but in a competitive space, sometimes corners may be cut. The obvious threat would be a rise in bad debts caused by the combination of higher interest … Continue reading "How Many Porky Loans Do The Banks Really Hold?"

Markets have been volatile, with Oil and LNG lower in price on the announcement of the temporary ceasefire, and then higher as the question of whether it will hold, in the light of the situation in Lebanon emerges. As we discuss the Straits are still pretty much blocked, and no-one knows how things will play … Continue reading "Navigating The Uncertainty Principle!"

We look at the impact of the temporary ceasefire in the Gulf War as part of our monthly economic update, recorded with Nuggets News. This is my edit of the discussion, with added slides. Who will be the winners? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The … Continue reading "The Game Of Thrones Takes Another Turn!"

In this live show we examined the markets in the context of the current Gulf War, and the “Game of Thrones” energy battle now underway. I was joined by Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen to dive into the latest from the markets, and how we should think … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A: Investing During A “Game Of Thrones” Gulf War: With Damien Klassen"

Despite the long weekend, Edwin and I are back for another deep dive into the world of property. This week we look at the latest numbers, which seem to fly in the face of some MSM reporting. We examine the impact of the Gulf War, and how this may flow on to the property sector. … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"