Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Australia is stuck with rising unemployment, sticky inflation and poor productivity. After several years of prioritising its full-employment mandate, it appears that the Reserve Bank of Australia is now choosing to focus on returning inflation to target even if it comes at the cost of an economic downturn or even a recession. Economists will argue … Continue reading "An RBA Rate Hike Is Baked In, Despite A Slight Rise In The Unemployment Rate!"

So will there be a get out of jail card? Well, according to Commonwealth Bank and artificial intelligence giant Anthropic are both tipping AI will deliver a productivity bonanza for Australia, aligning with Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ Intergenerational Report, which some have criticised as too optimistic in its long-term outlook. The Treasury tipped AI to help … Continue reading "Higher Debt Costs Here To Stay!"

In this live show we examine the latest on policies in Australia which seems hell-bent on making our lives worse, rather than taking the country forward, especially now. I will be discussing this with Robbie Barwick, National Chairman from the Citizens Party, as we pull apart AUKUS, Financing for the Future, Intergenerational Fairness and the … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Oh Australia! With Robbie Barwick"

This week we look at the developments in Victoria, from politics to failing buildings, examine the latest bets on future rate rises, and property prices, and delve into weak spring selling season. We look at price scenarios for WA which was outstanding from my earlier shows. Edwin looks at distressed sales, and we cover off … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Volatility is banded about without much thought about what it really means, and what it really measures. Volatility indices are linked to options pricing, and prices of assets do not necessarily correlate with total returns. So in this show Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds and I go … Continue reading "What Precisely Is Volatility?: With Damien Klassen"

I am sick and tired of so-called experts jumping to simplistic so-called solutions to solve the Australian Property Problem. The truth is, often they have a specific agenda, for example a Bank CEO who talks the market up, trying to increase loan growth, or politicians who try to justify their policies by claiming it’s about … Continue reading "Australian Property’s Three Body Problem"

We walk through the results from our latest surveys, tracking household financial pressure across mortgage, rental, investor and overall stress. Where are the hot spots? This is a segment from our recent live show. https://youtu.be/Fjp44eRLuF0 http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ … Continue reading "The Latest On Mortgage Stress, Rental Stress And Financial Stress"

In this segment we walk though the latest home price scenarios for houses and units across the states, and across key household segments, based on where things may go over the next three years. These are not predictions but sensitivities. This is an extract from our recent live show. WA data will follow….

The Australian Property markets are teetering on the edge thanks to the expectation of more rate rises in the weeks ahead, including potentially one at the end of September, and another on Melbourne Cup Day in November, while auction listings are up a little, but clearance rates fell this week compared to last, according to … Continue reading "Property’s Spring Season Is A Damp Squib…"

Despite the prospect of more RBA rate hikes as soon as September, the Australian property markets are moving into the spring selling season as new stock comes on market, and vendors drop their price expectations. The market, currently in a downturn following three interest rate rises, while changes to negative gearing, CGT and SMSF purchasing … Continue reading "Aussies Capitulate To Lower Home Prices As Reality Hits!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Remembering that September and October typically are the worse months for equity markets, it was no surprise to see significant market volatility across the week, given the … Continue reading "Looking Into The Jaws Of A Recession Or Worse?"

Sad to say, but the likelihood of significantly higher inflation, and higher interest rates globally, and locally are being cemented as we speak. And are we seeing the growing pains to a new financial system? On top of the continued attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz, which has constructed oil supplies and lifted … Continue reading "The Inflation Rocket Just Got Ignited: Even More Rate Hikes Incoming!"

Today we step through our latest scenarios and stress analysis, and consider the future trajectory of home prices, and rents in the light of the latest news and data. Whilst some are suggesting a rebound in (some) prices later next year, the likelihood of more RBA rate hikes in the spring suggests a different path. … Continue reading "What Happens Next With Australian Property?"

We had fresh inflation warning from both Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Sarah Hunter and RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser in the past couple of days, ahead of the Monetary Policy Meeting at the end of the month. And frankly it sent signals to the markets that they are likely to raise in interest … Continue reading "Another Crunch Incoming As More Rate Rises Are On The Cards…"

In edit of my live show CEO of Alcove Mortgage Brokers Chris Bates and I discuss the current property market trends, with a focus on recent changes to the mortgage market. With lower applications at the moments, are rate discounts a thing, or are the upcoming likely RBA rate hikes forcing rates higher? How should … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: What Falling Prices Means For Mortgages: With Chris Bates"

Tonight we look at the new One Nation policy on superannuation, and discuss the other policy areas which will be contested at the next election. We also pull apart the latest news on Bathla, and other property company failures, and the implications for people trapped in the foreclosure processes. Meantime time property prices continue to … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. In the week that the UN voted for the Correct the Map” resolution, which replaces the traditional world map with one that more accurately reflects the size … Continue reading "Mirror Mirror: Markets Wrestle With A Matter Of Perspective!"

Markets are going crazy, gold is being repatriated as bond yields rise. Inflation remains high partially stoked by AI investment, while ordinary people seem to be left behind, so what to do? Well, I caught up with sound money advocate Lynette Zang, who is the Founder and CEO of Zang Enterprises. We spoke about the … Continue reading "The Future Is Genuinely In Our Own Hands: With Lynette Zang"

Another chat with journalist Tarric Brooker as we go though the latest slides and data. How come politicians are using soft toys to explain the property market? Why are we seeing so much spin? What is the real data telling us? Check out Tarric’s charts here: https://x.com/AvidCommentator/status/2095404318128247133 http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service … Continue reading "Please Stop Toying With Us: With Tarric Brooker"

Various bank economists had predicted that the economy would slide back into a per capita recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP per capita terms, ahead of Wednesday’s Q2 2026 national accounts release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). But in an upward surprise, the good news was that … Continue reading "Let’s Give The Australian GDP A Spin!"

An update today on our campaign to save regional communities across the country, with Robbie Barwick, National Chairman; National Research Director; 2025 Senate Candidate for Victoria from the Australian Citizens Party. https://citizensparty.org.au/ You will not believe the latest porkies being told… unbelievable… http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to … Continue reading "Truth Versus Lies: The Future Of Our Communities – With Robbie Barwick"

This week we dive into the latest spin from the Federal Government on property, pull apart the Bathla story, and look across the construction sector more broadly, as well as the latest numbers. Some are panicking, but others are more able to digest the current uncertainty. If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Over the past week we have seen more indicators that the housing market is battling with a storm of issues, from rising interest rates, yes the RBA will have to hike further, higher inflation, which is causing the RBA to move, and higher bond yields signifying higher borrowing costs for households, businesses and the government. … Continue reading "The Property Dominos Are Continuing To Fall; Hard!"

Data today reinforces our view of more cash rate hikes are in the wind in Australia, as household spending data suggests households are just fine. Today we look at the data, highlight some issues with the interpretation, and consider that case for more hikes, adding to the pressure on some households. My base case is … Continue reading "Are Households Really Splashing The Cash?"

Today we got the Consumer Price Index (CPI) date from the ABS and they reported that in July 2026, it headline measure rose 3.5 per cent over the past 12 months, down from 3.8 per cent in the 12 months to June, which was hotter than many economists had expected. Trimmed mean annual inflation which … Continue reading "More Rate Hikes Are Likely As The CPI Lands Hot…"

In this edit of our latest live show I discussed the latest housing and economic data with Chief Economist Leith van Onselen, co-founder of Macrobusiness and Nucleus Wealth. So much noise, but what are the signals saying? Will this really be the worse home price correction for 4 decades? And what of the broader economy? … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Yet Another Housing Price Gotcha: With Leith van Onselen"

In this show Edwin and I kick around the questions of listings (are they rising or falling?), rents and migration all drivers of property price moves. In addition the latest news from the AML sector is significant, as are the latest political moves. Beware averages… If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

More data this week showing property prices continue to fall, driven my multiple drivers, from interest rates, poor wages growth, high inflation changes to Government tax law, and reduced mortgage lending. Every part of the country is impacted. The latest clearance rates confirms the falls too, as transaction volumes remain in glacial territory. One other … Continue reading "Yet Another Housing Price Gotcha!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. We had major developments this week which underscored the fragility of the global financial system, as US Government debt hit $40 trillion, Australian Government debt hit $AU1 … Continue reading "Markets Fret About Debt, Bonds And An Incoming Financial Crisis…"