Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Forward guidance seems to have evaporated today! The Central Bankers seem to push their forecasts out again, as inflation remains hot. But Central Bankers seem caught in the headlights of conflicting data and political pressure, especially in the USA. Many households are caught in the cross-fire! How credible is the pursuit of the “2%”? This … Continue reading "Central Bank Fest With A Bias To Cutting…"

I regularly get comments from viewers that the official data on CPI and employment seem a bit off. And of course there is data from other sources which suggests this is the case. We need a good data compass to understand what is going on in the economy, and its probably more important now that … Continue reading "Behind the Numberwang: Can You Trust Official Statistics?"

This is an edit of a live discussion with Chief Economist Leith van Onselen (one of our most popular guests!) as we explore the latest economic data and dive deep into the chaos created by years of poor policy. Leith is the co-founder of Macrobusiness, and Economist at Nucleus Wealth. We did a deep dive … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Who Killed The Australian Economy? With Leith van Onselen"

Another deep dive into the property market with our insider Edwin Almeida, as we look at the latest “stories” in the media about home price momentum, new data on what is happening, and a couple of critical case studies… Has the Blue Screen of Death hit the Australian economy? Note next week we will live … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. As I mentioned last week, I regard these posts as perhaps the most important I make, even if not the most popular, so I was gratified by … Continue reading "AI Tide Lifts All Boats; Including The Leaky Ones!"

This is my edit of a long form discussion with Adam Stokes broadcast on his channel last night. We pull apart the news from the US shooting of Charlie Kirk and reflect on the broader issues below the surface, through a deeply philosophical lens. What does it say about our political leaders and processes, society … Continue reading "WTF Just Happened? Beyond Left Versus Right!"

More stats from the ABS today suggesting high numbers of people visiting Australia, but does this also mean migration is still booming? Well according to the ABS we cannot draw such conclusions, but then if you look harder, it does appear migration is rising, despite the wish to high the fact – so can we … Continue reading "Let’s Not Talk About Migration Then…."

This is my edit of the latest economic and housing update with Nuggets News. We cover international events, the US data problem, the FED, liquidity as well as Australian housing, and the local economy. Its a mess, and you cannot make this stuff up! http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ … Continue reading "You Can’t Make This Stuff Up: Our Latest Economic Update!"

This is an edit of a live discussion as I explore the latest data from our surveys, and answer specific questions from viewers about how specific post codes are faring in terms of mortgage, rental, investor and overall financial stress to end August 2025. Refer my recent post here, for more details: https://youtu.be/ID5NeEPthvo Details of … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Property Myths V Reality As Financial Pressures Still Build"

Robbie Barwick The National Research Director from the Australian Citizens Party and I examine the bad behaviour exhibited by Bendigo Bank as it seeks to ape the other “big” players (alligators?) in Australia and close branches where they can, despite having profitable business in regional towns and in some places remain the only branch in … Continue reading "The Attack Of The Alligators, The Slow Death Of Real Australia: With Robbie Barwick"

A bumper addition of the Rant tonight, as Edwin shares a recent interview with one of the big property players, we examine the policy failures across federal and state governments, and dig into the latest statistics. The gap between reality and spruiking is getting wider, something is going fall into the abyss… If you are … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

We look at the latest contradictions in housing, as the media talk up the potential for price hikes ahead, in response to Government policy, and rate cuts from the RBA. Problem is, this is only half the story, and people are being deceived. The other side of the coin is the ongoing financial pressure on … Continue reading "Property Myths V Reality As Financial Pressures Still Build"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Weirdly, while I regard this weekly show as one of the most important, it generally gets lower view counts than many of my posts. Do please, comment, … Continue reading "Stagflation Is Looming: Like It Or Not!"

Australian consumers are starting to spend more as disposable incomes and wealth climb, a welcome boost for the economy that could slow the pace of monetary easing if it persists, according to Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock. Though I am not buying what she is selling. Australian consumers are of course a mixed bunch, with … Continue reading "Confident Or Constrained Consumer?"

Today we got the final piece of the national accounts data from the ABS for the second quarter 2025. The GDP result was better than many had expected, because although analysts had tipped a 0.4% rise in headline GDP, and the RBA had forecast 0.5% growth the final number was a 0.6% rise was recorded, … Continue reading "The Growth Doom Loop That No One Wants To Talk About!"

This is an edit of a live discussion with Damien Klassen Head of Investments At Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth. As we run into the northern autumn, markets generally wobble, but this year having reach new highs, and the vibes from Trump on the Fed plus tariffs, how should investors navigate the current … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investors v Toppy Markets And Fed Independence? With Damien Klassen"

In this edition of our property rant Edwin and I kick around the latest political and property news, and examine the gap between political aspiration to build 1.2 million homes and the reality on the ground. Actually the stock of good property for sale is pretty limited which helps explain the uptick in stand alone … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Central banks have, it is claimed, played an integral role in the evolution of modern economies. Initially, central banks were closely tied to governments. Their independence became a formalized goal in the late 20th century, especially post-1970s inflation crises. However, critics argue this independence is often more theoretical than practical. Actually, The global trend toward … Continue reading "Pop Goes “Independent” Central Bankers?"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. At one level, markets have continued to chug higher touching records earlier in the week, supported by the AI boom, hopes for US rate cuts, and the … Continue reading "Hard Truths Ahead For The Endless Rally As US CEO Trump Fires?"

This is a thought-provoking dive into the the root cause of the property crisis, and what may lay ahead. What do Marie Antionette, a lump of coal, and the Kingdom of Great Britain have to do with the Australian Property Crisis and Policy Change? The answer according to Associate Professor John Wright centres on the … Continue reading "Inside The Property Crisis: With John Wright"

Last week on my show with Tarric Brooker we discussed the stouch about the ABS, migration and arrival statistics. Recall recent data on arrivals versus departures showed a significant uptick in population. The Australian Government’s official document, Fundamentals of migration in Australia: Migration concepts and measurements, from the Centre for Population, explicitly stated that “border … Continue reading "Migration, Replacement And Statistical BS"

Well, well, the monthly ABS data on inflation came in with a rate that accelerated faster than expected in July, moving closer to the top of the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target, jumping to 2.8% — the highest annual rate since July 2024 — and well above June’s 1.9%. A caveat as always, these monthly indicators … Continue reading "Inflation Not Dead, Just Resting… At Best…"

This is an edit of a live discussion with Robbie Barwick, the Research Director of the Australian Citizens Party, as we deep dive into the current politico-financial system, which seems to be driving ordinary Australians to the edge. Who is pulling the strings? Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Are The Banksters Calling The Shots? With Robbie Barwick"

Yes, Edwin is back for another regular Rant! Today we cover the latest from the Government on First Time Buyer Incentives, more development planning disasters, and a case of under-quoting in the suburbs (again). We also explore the toxic inter-generational war which is being confected by politicians who are responsible for the issues which they … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

The announcement from the Government to freeze the building code came fast after the Productivity Round-table, and as expected, this is more performative politics, which will do nothing to solve housing affordability, but will give the Government cover for more tax reform. The standards are not policed effectively in any case, and many homes in … Continue reading "Performative Politics Won’t Solve The Housing Crisis!"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Remarkably, the MSCI global index, which hit another high, is more than 50% higher than just 3 years ago. The European STOXX 600 is a mere 30% … Continue reading "Markets Greet Light In Tunnel, But Is That A Train Coming?"

Another Friday evening deep dive into the data with journalist Tarric Brooker, as we look at the question of whether we can believe official statistics, the outcomes of the productivity sessions this week, and the question of housing supply and demand. I should add we had a few audio issues from Tarric, but only in … Continue reading "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics: With Tarric Brooker"

Today we discuss the upcoming Jackson Hole Bun Fight and New Zealand Reserve Bank Decision to cut rates and I will argue that the whiff of stagflation is getting stronger, to the detriment of ordinary households and businesses. The RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bp, citing tighter spending by businesses and households, falling home prices … Continue reading "Stagflation Looms As Central Bankers Party Amid Peak Uncertainty!"

Today we look at the latest from the “housing Debate” as reflected in to current talk-fest, the YIMBY versus NIMBY debate, a case study in reality from Rose Bay, together with slides from Edwin which he had hoped to present, but was unable to make the recording today. Get well Edwin! Removing planning restrictions is … Continue reading "The Cracks Are Showing In Housing Policy!"

This is an edit of a live discussion with Tony Locantro as we examine the latest from markets, politics and life. Tony offers several financial services, such as investment management, financial planning, stock selection and fundraising. Tony has helped countless investors and organisations with strategic investment strategies over the last two decades. His understanding of … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Can You Handle The Truth? With Tony Locantro"

Another of our occasional series with my friend George as we kick around the question of the current state of the economy, society and politics. Who is in control? Why are people feeling under pressure? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ … Continue reading "Down The Rabbit Hole Again (With George): Is The Economy Stupid?"

Edwin, sad to say, was too unwell to record our normal show today, hopefully he will be back soon, get well sir….! So I took the opportunity to set out the Productivity stall ahead of the 3-day talk fest to feature some of the inputs posited by industry, politicians and others, as well as drilling … Continue reading "Productivity Special: Half A Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Despite the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting the official cash rate (OCR) by 2.25% and with further rate cuts expected, New Zealand home prices nationally are down nearly 17% over 45 months and are only 3.4% higher than five years ago. This, despite the reduction in the OCR has driven down the cost of … Continue reading "How To Fix Housing Affordability, Kiwi Style [But]…."

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Global stocks were flat but still traded near record highs on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin held what turned out … Continue reading "Heady Days For The Market, Maybe, But How Sustainable?"

I am joined again by friend of the show Joe Wilkes, as we kick around the high-rise unit question. Why are they being imposed on more and more households, and what are the consequences. How do we stay grounded? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The … Continue reading "WARNING: Never, Ever, Ever Buy A Unit: With Joe Wilkes"

More releases from the ABS today, including the update on employment statistics, as well as Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, and also average weekly earnings. Australia’ jobless rate ticked lower and employment rose, signaling the labor market remains tight and reinforcing the Reserve Bank’s cautious approach to policy easing. There was some reversal of the … Continue reading "Population Booms, Again, As Unemployment Falls!"

The elephant in the room of the upcoming dialogue on productivity is that it is mainly performative, despite the weak 0.7% estimate from the RBA as part of yesterday’s rate announcement, and the gap highlighted by recent Treasury data. The latest data on wages and lending also shines a spotlight on the issues we are … Continue reading "Have The Productivity Nuts and Bolts Bolted?"

This is an edit of a live discussion as I walk through my latest surveys, and examine the mortgage and rental stress hot spots. Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our research alerts … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Households Under The Pump: Make It Stop!"

Edwin is back in full voice as we pull apart the latest property news, with a focus on Real Estate Agents. From under quoting to driving rents higher, and from dummy bidding to poor data management, agents are not necessarily working for you, so be careful! If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Another in our series of reality checks as we look at price drops in the NSW South Coast, thanks to Cookie for the research. Yes, folks, prices are falling in places here (despite the hype). And for more, join us next Tuesday for our live deep-dive show. https://youtube.com/live/-bnD0dwxatw If you are buying your home in … Continue reading "Operation Antispruik: NSW South Coast [July 2025]"