Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

We are in a phony war at the moment, as the real effects of the Gulf War, and the spike in fuel prices are yet to hit the rear-facing data as reported by the ABS and others. The forward-looking confidence data has crashed of course, with consumer sentiment down as reported by the MI and … Continue reading "Rear View Mirror Says Employment Is Fine; Just Don’t Look Ahead!"

As the Gulf War hangs in the balance and the Straits of Hormoz remain shut, or nearly so, economists are having a field day with a tranche of gloomy economic scenarios. Actually, given the great state of uncertainty which exists, with prospective talks resuming, according to Trump, and rumours of China putting pressure on Iran … Continue reading "Is An Economic Crisis Incoming?"

In this live show edit we examined the consequence of the Gulf War in the light of Crypto being used to pay for passage across the Straits. This is consequential, so does this represent a battle for the basis of money as well as Oil? The naval blockade at the eastern gate catches ships. The … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: The Money Of War Versus The Money Of Peace: With Adam Stokes"

This week Edwin, our property insider and I dive into the latest from the government on advertising relating to the fuel situation, and for foreign first time buyers (sic). We also pull apart the latest stats on listings and sales and contrast the reality on the ground, with the MSM click-bait. Things are getting interesting, … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Last week we got articles suggesting that buyers worry about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and sellers rushing to offload their homes have cooled the property market. The latest data from the weekend certainly confirmed ongoing weakness. The clock is ticking on weaker home values. It is indeed likely that the interest rates … Continue reading "Tick-Tock: Home Prices Under Pressure As Markets Fade."

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Whilst these shows tend to get less views and likes compared with our others, they remain the most critical to me, as it helps to grasp what … Continue reading "Markets Wrestle With Alternate Realities As “Peace Talks” Hopes Belie The Incoming Economic Storm!"

For some long time, there have been questions about the quality of mortgage loans held by Australian banks. Underwriting standards require them to make appropriate inquiry before lending, but in a competitive space, sometimes corners may be cut. The obvious threat would be a rise in bad debts caused by the combination of higher interest … Continue reading "How Many Porky Loans Do The Banks Really Hold?"

Markets have been volatile, with Oil and LNG lower in price on the announcement of the temporary ceasefire, and then higher as the question of whether it will hold, in the light of the situation in Lebanon emerges. As we discuss the Straits are still pretty much blocked, and no-one knows how things will play … Continue reading "Navigating The Uncertainty Principle!"

We look at the impact of the temporary ceasefire in the Gulf War as part of our monthly economic update, recorded with Nuggets News. This is my edit of the discussion, with added slides. Who will be the winners? http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The … Continue reading "The Game Of Thrones Takes Another Turn!"

In this live show we examined the markets in the context of the current Gulf War, and the “Game of Thrones” energy battle now underway. I was joined by Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth, Damien Klassen to dive into the latest from the markets, and how we should think … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A: Investing During A “Game Of Thrones” Gulf War: With Damien Klassen"

Despite the long weekend, Edwin and I are back for another deep dive into the world of property. This week we look at the latest numbers, which seem to fly in the face of some MSM reporting. We examine the impact of the Gulf War, and how this may flow on to the property sector. … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

We have updated our surveys and modelling to the end of March 2026, effectively the last month before the incoming rate rises, fuel increases and inflation hit households. So in this show we examine the data, which will form a baseline for future analysis, as we expect financial stress to accelerate from its current high … Continue reading "Household Financial Stress BEFORE The Storm…"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. This past week, foreshortened by the Easter holidays, but haunted by the Gulf War and Trump’s gyrations, an oil shock and a potential inflation outbreak all combined … Continue reading "Markets Ride The Volatility Rollercoaster, With No Visible Support!"

In the next edition of our show, Journalist Tarric Brooker and I discuss the real implications of the Gulf War on Australia. Using his great slides, we reveal the potential omnishamables likely to play out, and compare this with some of the recent comments and policies from our leaders. Words and figures differ! Tarric’s charts … Continue reading "The Omnishambles Incoming: With Tarric Brooker"

The outlook looks pretty gloomy, thanks to the War in the Gulf. We got a spate of leaders addressing their respective nations about the economic situation and the progress of the war. So in this show we dig into these, and also review recent comments about Financial stability and Government support. Truth is, even if … Continue reading "Stagflation Incoming: Brace, Brace, Brace!"

Yesterday we saw the UniParty in action, as the weak cash bill was passed in the Senate, with the support of Labor and Liberal Nationals, despite earlier signs of a different outcome. So in the show Robbie Barwick from the Citizens Party and I discuss what happened, with the help of some of the critical … Continue reading "The Conspiracy Of The UniParty To Kill Cash: With Robbie Barwick"

In this live show we examined the consequences of the Gulf War on Investing, the economy and life in general, with Investment Manager Tony Locantro. Tony offers several financial services, such as investment management, financial planning, stock selection and fundraising. Tony has helped countless investors and organisations with strategic investment strategies over the last two … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Surviving When Things Fall Apart: With Tony Locantro"

This week we dive into the latest economic and property data and ask whether the doom and gloom which is hanging over the market is justified. We consider the Gulf war and the agenda behind the current conflict and also pull on the strings relating to the announced excise cuts for fuel. Once again the … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Frankly, trying to forecast where the Australian economy might go when the situation in Iran changes every hour is not easy. But it does seem likely the RBA will decide to lift interest rates again, with some market analysis eyeing 4.6 per cent incoming, arguing that before the war, the embedded inflation pulse and productivity … Continue reading "Will Australian Property Take A Bath?"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Markets have remained highly volatile, thanks to the War in the Gulf, already fuelling higher prices and inflation around the Globe. As I reported yesterday the OECD … Continue reading "Markets Reach Correction Territory And Find No Place To Hide!"

Fears of economic strain are growing across the globe as the United States-Israel war on Iran nears the one-month mark. The escalating conflict in the Middle East has knocked the global economy off a stronger growth path, the OECD warned on Thursday, as a near-halt in energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz threatens to … Continue reading "More Pain Incoming As Gulf War Hangs Around."

Chief Economist Leith van Onselen, co-founder of Macrobusiness joins me for a deep dive into the latest situation across the Australian economy, as higher migration collides with the oil shock and higher inflation drives the RBA to raise rates. How will all this play out, and will property values fall in response, or will the … Continue reading "Its Mad Max Versus The Housing Market: With Leith van Onselen"

As expected according to the latest monthly inflation data from the ABS released today, Australian inflation remained elevated in February which underscored persistent price pressures in the economy even before the Iran war disrupted Middle East energy supplies and sent the cost of gasoline and other goods soaring. So at one level we should look … Continue reading "We Have An Inflation Problem; And More…"

There were shenanigans in the Senate relating to the future of cash, and it highlights the games people play to keep the banks sweet, despite the need to access cash, especially in the regions, and especially now. I am joined by Robbie Barwick, National Chairman; National Research Director; 2025 Senate Candidate for Victoria for the … Continue reading "The Senate Fire-Fight In The War On Cash: With Robbie Barwick"

In this live show we examined the consequences of the RBA rate hike, and the broader impact of the Gulf War on Australians, and their fixation with property. Was Mad Max just a film or a view of the future? Due to technical issues the show with Leith van Onselen has been postponed. Pesky SSD! … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Mad Max Versus The Australian Property Market: A Quickie…"

As the Gulf War morphs we examine the impact on property in Australia, with specific reference to Sydney with our property insider Edwin Almeida. Once again it seems the MSM property writes are behind the ball in terms of the latest statistics. We also consider the SA election, and the “downsizer” policies which were part … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

War does not run to a script. Not least because all parties have a say about what happens next. Mohamed El-Erian said on X: “Consensus is shifting, and rightly so: This third week of the war has fuelled a shift from a short-term energy disruption to long-term structural damage. With that, the broader fallout—also marked … Continue reading "Markets Swoon, Lost In A Fog Of War And Recession Fears."

Today we look at the lasting impact of the Gulf War with journalist Tarric Brooker, and discover that Australia is almost uniquely exposed thanks to past policy choices and poor leadership. Using his great charts, (see the link here for them: https://www.burnouteconomics.com/p/dfa-chart-pack-20th-march-2026) we look at fuel availability, as well are the broader economic fallout, and … Continue reading "Are We Up The Creek Without A Paddle? With Tarric Brooker"

Today we got the latest data from the ABS on employment and population. While Australian unemployment stayed relatively low in February as job gains continued, which perhaps reinforced the Reserve Bank’s view that the economy remains resilient enough to withstand tighter monetary policy, the big news was strong population growth up by 1.6 per cent … Continue reading "Australian Population Booms As Unemployment Rises: But…"

Against the backcloth of the Gulf War, Robbie Barwick, National Chairman;National Research Director and 2025 Senate Candidate for Victoria for the Australian Citizens Party and I discuss the ramifications and policy failures which are hitting real Australians now. We examine the failure of the “Neo-liberal” virus, international relations and the need for a new approach, … Continue reading "Australia Must Get Serious Before It Is Too Late! With Robbie Barwick"