Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

Powell argued in his post-meeting press conference that the economy right now — with inflation still well above the Fed’s 2% target and the labor market showing signs of weakening — is one where disagreements are to be expected. “A very large number of participants agree that risks are to the upside for unemployment and … Continue reading "Schrodinger’s FED"

Yesterdays RBA Monetary Policy Board unanimous decision to hold rates at 3.6% and Michelle Bullocks calling the end to a truncated easing cycle meeting after delivering 75 basis points of cuts between February and August, at the press conference which followed, was significant in that rate cuts are off the table now, and it’s a … Continue reading "RBA Crushes Households As Bond Vigilantes Ride In!"

This is an edit of our latest live show where Robbie Barwick from the Citizens Party joined me to explore the critical policy issues which Australia is facing, who is pulling the strings, and what we can do about it. Robbie Barwick, is the National Chairman and National Research Director and 2025 Senate Candidate for … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Why Essential Services Are Deliberately Being Destroyed: With Robbie Barwick"

As we run up to the end of the year, Edwin and I examine the underlying tides which are influencing the property markets across the country. We examine the tussle between the quest to build higher, and reality; the impact on the rental markets of policy, and the latest stance Australians are taking on migration. … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

The spin from politicians is that strong jobs growth is a result of their great policies, and the RBA often says they deliberately kept interest rates lower to try to protect jobs. Given the way the economy is set up it is certainly true that those in work tend to fair better that those out … Continue reading "The Australian Economic Miracle, Isn’t…."

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Markets are fickle beasts, especially in the run up to the year end, and we saw again attempts to push higher, despite the rising vertigo helped by … Continue reading "Market High-Wire Act Continues: Just Don’t Look Down!"

Tarric Brooker joins me for a review of the week, and the latest data and charts, as Spin Jim tries to explain the Australian economy is so great, when many feel very different about it. In this is the Burnout Economy in action, with both winners and losers. We look at the latest housing affordability … Continue reading "Burnout Economics Is Why You Feel So Poor! With Tarric Brooker"

Associate Professor John Wright is back to develop his concept of Carry Trades further as we ask how to solve the housing crisis. This time he uses the analogy of The Terminator. The future is genuinely open, for those who see it. Johns earlier shows are here: Inside The Property Crisis https://youtu.be/fWTsHsGBHzYThe Real Estate Carry … Continue reading "How To Terminate The Housing Crisis: With John Wright"

Today we got the latest data from the ABS on the Australian Economy, via the backward-looking data on GDP to September 2025. As you know I think GDP is a bad measure of anything useful, because it simply measures activity in the Economy, wherever it comes from, yet economists, politicians and bankers and fixated on … Continue reading "Latest GDP Shows Burnout Economy In Action!"

This is an edit of a live show where Head of Investments Damien Klassen at Walk The World Funds and Nucleus Wealth delved into current market dynamics, with an eye to the year end, in the light of current bouts of volatility. Japan bonds in particular could be the canary in the coalmine. But innovations … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A Replay: Santa Rally? Volatility? Tokenisation? Investing Now With Damien Klassen"

It’s Edwin’s Birthday, but he still found time to share his latest thoughts on the property market, which it seems is exhibiting some interesting characteristics; from price rises, to falling auction clearance rates, via falling affordability. We also dive into the question of property surveys again, as the MSM finally catch up, and the UK … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

This past week marks an important turning point in the raging bull of the Australian property market. So perhaps it’s time to rethink fair value, despite the fact a recent poll from a November 13–26 survey of 15 property analysts showed national home prices rising around 8% this year and 6.9% in 2026, up from … Continue reading "Property Fools Us Again?"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Generally, markets trend higher in December, in the so-called Santa rally as traders position to maximise end of year returns. So, after last week’s shemozzle is Santa … Continue reading "Is A Santa Rally Back On The Agenda Now?"

With all the noise over the Black Friday and Cyber Monday we want people to think about whether there are REAL deals out there, or if its simply credit induced spin which could lead to tears later. So we look at the latest data on credit, and especially the rise of Buy Now Pay Later … Continue reading "Black Friday Sales May End In Grief…."

As I have been highlighting, lending for mortgages has been growing way faster than inflation, including for investor borrowers, and this is first lifting prices because the growth of credit is one of the stronger levers of home price growth, along side higher migration, but also put more households in high-debt to income scenarios, while … Continue reading "Banks’ Home Lending Mobbed By A Wet Lettuce (Again)!"

This is my edit of our monthly housing and economic update recorded in conjunction with Nuggets News. In this months edition, I explore the latest developments in AI, the crypto ructions, the Australian housing market and the recent economic data which raises some important questions as we barrel into then end of 2025. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details … Continue reading "The Economic Chickens Are Coming Home To Roost!"

This is a edit of a live show where we took a deep to dive into the market psychology which is driving markets, property and gold, with Investment Manager Tony Locantro, and asked whether there is more sentiment than logic at play, as financial markets have dropped recently, though Australian property is on the up, … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Market Psychology Ups And Downs: With Tony Locantro"

Could it be that the momentum in the property market is taking an early bath, as we slide into summer? Well, certainly according to the AFR, the diminishing prospects of an interest rate cut any time soon have dampened buyers’ spirits and caused the auction clearance rate to slip below 70 per cent as the … Continue reading "Property Markets Slide Into Summer?"

This is my weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Just like days one and two of the first ashes test in Perth, where wickets fell and innings collapsed fast, the financial markets this week experienced a … Continue reading "A Wild Ride To Nowhere As Markets Bite Back!"

Strip back the political spin, and its clear Australia faces a weak economy ahead, based on a rising structural deficit, and falling productivity. The Titanic and Icebergs springs to mind, as an unsinkable ship sank, and strong migration, Government support for households, and a growing public sector will not be enough to turn the ship … Continue reading "Australia’s Titanic Moment Approaches, As Spin Overrides Reality!"

This is an edit of a special live Q&A show, featuring Robbie Barwick, National Chairman, National Research Director and 2025 Senate Candidate for Victoria for the Australian Citizens Party. https://citizensparty.org.au/ Robbie recently returned from a study tour across China, and in this show you can question him about what he observed during the trip. This … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: A Bull In A China Shop: Ask Robbie Barwick Live!"

Australia’s annual wage growth remained elevated last quarter, underscoring a tight labor market and persistently weak productivity and suggesting inflationary pressures may take time to cool in a challenge for policy makers. For the Reserve Bank of Australia, it means an interest rate cut in the near term remains unlikely. In addition wages growth is … Continue reading "The Inconvenient Truth About The Wages Price Index “Good News”"

This is an edit of a live stream where we dived into the economic maelstrom which is Australia, with Chief Economist Leith van Onselen, co-founder of Macrobusiness, and at Nucleus Wealth. We seem to be hit by an series of bad policies, which are degrading the outcomes for many households, yet Canberra seems stuck in … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Time To Stop The Economic Shadow Boxing: With Leith van Onselen"

From underquoting to AML, and from asbestos contamination to energy policy, we cover it all on this weeks rant with our property insider Edwin Almeida. It seems the economics of real estate agents are changing, and creating a challenging environment, as we head into the summer slow down. Yet another reason why some are being … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Now as the AFR reported fines for underquoting in NSW will be increased by five times as the state government cracks down on real estate agents’ use of misleading price guides in a hot market where buyers are already scrambling to secure a home. Under tough new rules proposed for the state, agents will have … Continue reading "Gazumping and Underquoting City…"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. We got another major dose of uncertainty this week, with doubts about FED rate cuts, Trumps tariff U turns reacting to US affordability issues, rising doubts about … Continue reading "The Bulls Are Getting Airsick, As Reality Bites!"

In this week’s Friday evening chat, journalist Tarric Brooker and I dive into the contentious issues surrounding housing costs in Australia. The latest data tells a sorry story for ordinary Australians, while the political class seem to be driving in a different direction. Tarric’s slides were extra insightful today, and you can see them here: … Continue reading "Australia’s Housing Costs Go Ballistic: With Tarric Brooker"

One of the worst decisions the ABS made was to reduce the reporting of new lending trends from monthly to quarterly, delaying of course any reactions from regulators, or commentary from analysts. And today’s quarterly release relating to the September confirms what we had suspected, namely that the number of investment loans in the September … Continue reading "Investor Loans Go Boom!"

Today we dive into the latest analysis from our Household Surveys with a focus on household cash flows, and where financial pressure, as measured by rental and mortgage stress is most extreme, across post code. Whilst some are benefitting from the “wealth effect”, many are being left stranded. Details of our one to one service … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Can Households Balance Their Books? – Insights Into Family Finances …"

Another week, more stupidity across property, as Edwin and I look at the latest news and statistics. We cover the question of mortgage fraud, poor quality construction, and why Edwin believes the Real Estate industry is in for a shock, as reports of underquoting, and slowing sales appear. If you are buying your home in … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"