Mortgage Rates Today | Housing Market & Fed News – The Rate Update with Dan Frio

Mortgage rates today, housing market news, and Federal Reserve analysis — explained in plain English by a mortgage loan originator with 38 years in the business. No hype. Just real data and practical next steps.

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Mortgage rates today, housing market news, and Federal Reserve analysis — explained in plain English by a mortgage loan originator with 38 years in the business. No hype. Just real data and practical next steps.

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Mortgage rates today, housing market news, and Federal Reserve analysis — explained in plain English by a mortgage loan originator with 38 years in the business. No hype. Just real data and practical next steps.

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Mortgage rates today, housing market news, and Federal Reserve analysis — explained in plain English by a mortgage loan originator with 38 years in the business. No hype. Just real data and practical next steps.

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Mortgage rates today, housing market news, and Federal Reserve analysis — explained in plain English by a mortgage loan originator with 38 years in the business. No hype. Just real data and practical next steps.

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Mortgage rates today, housing market news, and Federal Reserve analysis — explained in plain English by a mortgage loan originator with 38 years in the business. No hype. Just real data and practical next steps.

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Mortgage rates today, housing market news, and Federal Reserve analysis — explained in plain English by a mortgage loan originator with 38 years in the business. No hype. Just real data and practical next steps.

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Mortgage rates today, housing market news, and Federal Reserve analysis — explained in plain English by a mortgage loan originator with 38 years in the business. No hype. Just real data and practical next steps.

HOMES.COM - Read the article I'm featured on:
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Mortgage rates today, housing market news, and Federal Reserve analysis — explained in plain English by a mortgage loan originator with 38 years in the business. No hype. Just real data and practical next steps.

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Mortgage rates today, housing market news, and Federal Reserve analysis — explained in plain English by a mortgage loan originator with 38 years in the business. No hype. Just real data and practical next steps.

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Mortgage rates today, housing market news, and Federal Reserve analysis — explained in plain English by a mortgage loan originator with 38 years in the business. No hype. Just real data and practical next steps.

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With mortgage rates hovering near 7.5%, a lot of buyers assume they can't qualify — but you may have more options than you think. Dan covers today's bond market move, the latest economic news and Fed outlook, and the options worth a look before you rule yourself out, including seller credits and rate buydowns, FHA and down payment assistance, and comparing 30+ lenders with one application and one credit pull.

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Since 2022, many predicted a housing crash — so why hasn't it happened with mortgage rates near 7.5%? Dan compares today's market to 2008 (1.62 million existing homes for sale vs. 4.6 million then, 4.9 months of supply vs. 11.2), explains why owners with low rates aren't selling, and shows how oil-driven inflation pushed rates from 5.99% in February to about 7.5% today. Plus: today's bond market, the latest services and manufacturing data, and what the Fed is likely to do at its next meeting.

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Waiting for 2–3% mortgage rates to come back? Dan walks through mortgage rate history — near 18% in the early 1980s, 2.625% during COVID, and about 7.4% today — and explains what drove each extreme. He covers this week's economic calendar, why he expects home prices to stay flat rather than crash, the odds of a Fed pause at the next meeting, and how much more a $500,000 home costs per month today than at the 2021 lows.

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Mortgage rates are getting better today after a weak jobs report, and I'm breaking down what it means for homebuyers, homeowners, and realtors. The bond market is up 54 points, unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, and wages (3.0%) are not keeping up with inflation. Here's what that means for mortgage rates and the Federal Reserve's next move.

🏠 Jobs report comes in weak: payrolls miss, unemployment rises, and why markets expected the opposite
 📉 Bond market jumps 54 points, which is good news for mortgage rates today
 💵 Wages at 3.0% are not keeping up with inflation, and what the Fed is watching
 🛢️ Oil...

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE) came in better than expected — so why did mortgage rates still climb to about 7.6%? Dan explains how bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, why the 10-Year Treasury just hit its highest level since 2002, and how high oil prices plus a wave of government and corporate debt are pushing yields up worldwide. Plus this week's jobs, GDP and consumer confidence numbers and the latest odds for the Fed's next meeting.

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Mortgage rates today: inflation came in cooler than expected, and that's good news for homebuyers and homeowners watching the bond market. PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, held at 3.4% when the market expected 3.7%. In this update I break down what that means for mortgage rates and what's most likely to happen over the next few weeks.

🏠 PCE inflation came in at 3.4% instead of 3.7%, and core PCE landed at 3.0%
 📉 The Fed is now 55% likely to pause at the next meeting instead of hiking
 📊 Jobs and GDP beat expectations: ADP payrolls at 90K vs 73K expected, GDP at 2.2...

Mortgage rates are at 7.5% today, up from 5.99% in March, and the housing market would need to fall about 14% to bring your payment back. I break down the Case-Shiller home price report, the PCE inflation number, and why I see a 70% chance the Federal Reserve raises rates at its next meeting.

🏠 Home prices rose 2.5% in the Case-Shiller index. No crash, just higher prices
 📉 Waiting cost buyers more: rates went from 5.99% to 7.5% since March
 📊 PCE inflation and the ADP jobs report are the numbers to watch this week
 🏦 I explain why I think the Fed hikes in 29 days, and...

Mortgage rates today are jumping toward 7.5% as oil prices surge over 4% and the mortgage bond market drops 38 ticks. I break down the bond market, inflation data, and Federal Reserve rate hike odds so homebuyers, homeowners, and realtors know what to expect.

In this episode of The Rate Update:
🛢️ Oil jumps over 4% after Trump rejects the Iranian proposal on the strait, and why that hits mortgage rates
📉 Mortgage bonds (MBS) are down 38 ticks, and what that means for your rate today
📅 This week's economic reports: Case-Shiller home prices, consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, and Core PCE inflati...

Mortgage rates jumped from 7.17% to 7.45% in just 48 hours this week, and I'm breaking down exactly why. Hot Services and Manufacturing PMI inflation numbers on Wednesday spooked the bond market, and here's what it means for your rate, your budget, and next week's Fed data.

📉 Mortgage rates jumped from 7.17% to 7.45% in 48 hours, here's why
 📊 Hot Services PMI (56 to 58) and Manufacturing PMI (53.9 to 57) spooked the bond market
 📅 Next week's key Fed data: PCE, Core PCE, and the Case Shiller home price index
 🏠 How a $10,000 seller credit can buy your rate down to 5.25% in year one
 🛢️ Why tracking oil pric...

Mortgage rates today are about 7.25% after hot inflation numbers hit the bond market, and the Federal Reserve now has a 70% chance of a rate hike priced in. I break down what it means for your payment and what to watch next.

If you're a homebuyer, a homeowner tracking your rate, or a realtor explaining this to clients, here's what I cover today:

📈 Mortgage rates jumped to about 7.25%, up from 5.99% about six months ago
🏭 Services inflation came in at 58.7 versus about 56 expected, and manufacturing also came in hot
🛢️ Why oil keeps driving inflation, and why diesel...

Mortgage rates today are moving because of the bond market and oil prices, not the Federal Reserve. Here's what really affects mortgage rates and why homes are still so unaffordable.

If you're a homebuyer, realtor, loan officer, or homeowner watching where rates go from here, I break down the mortgage bond, inflation, oil, and the Fed in plain English, with the real numbers.

IN THIS EPISODE
📉 Why mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are down 22 today and what that means for your rate
💵 How bond prices and yields work, and why rates rise when bond prices fall

Mortgage rates, inflation, and the bond market are all reacting to oil prices and this week's Federal Reserve outlook. In today's video I break down the MBS bond market, the jobs report, and the 10 Year Treasury to help you decide if now is the time to lock in your mortgage rate, refinance, or keep waiting.

🏦 Today's MBS bond market move (up 11 ticks) and what "green" and "above 10" actually mean for your rate
 📊 What the Federal Reserve did last week and where the odds stand ahead of the next meeting
 💼 This week's jobs data, including today's payroll rep...

Mortgage rates went down after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter point. Here is how the bond market, oil prices, and inflation really control your mortgage rate, and what homebuyers and realtors should do next.

I walk through the mortgage bond chart I check every morning, what the Fed actually controls versus what moves your rate, and why oil is the real inflation problem.

🏦 Why mortgage rates fell after the Fed raised rates 25 basis points
📉 The dot plot shock: 16 of 18 officials pointed to another hike
🛢️ Why oil, not the economy, is driving inf...

Mortgage rates, inflation, and the bond market all moved fast today after the Federal Reserve raised rates a quarter point, its first hike in three years, then handed markets a dot plot that caught everyone off guard. In this episode I break down why rates plunged after the Fed's press conference, what today's jobless claims and building permits numbers tell us, and why oil prices are still the biggest risk for another rate hike.

📊 The Fed hiked rates a quarter point, the first increase in three years, and the vote was unanimous
 📉 A surprise dot plot signale...

Mortgage rates jumped from 5.99% to 7.2% without the Federal Reserve raising rates once in the last six months. In today's update I break down why oil, inflation, and the bond market are really driving your rate, what today's Fed meeting means, and what I'm telling my clients right now.

📊 Why mortgage rates jumped from 5.99% to 7.2% while the Fed sat still for six months
🏦 What the Federal Reserve actually controls, and why it's not your mortgage rate
🛢️ My oil price thesis, and why it's the real driver behind the inflation everyone's watching
📈 How the 10 Year Treasury and the mortga...

📈 Ten year Treasury yields just hit their highest level since 2007, and the Federal Reserve could hike mortgage rates as soon as tomorrow's meeting. In this episode I break down what the Fed actually controls, why mortgage rates went up even after Fed rate cuts, and what homebuyers and realtors need to watch next.

🏦 What the Federal Reserve controls versus what actually moves your mortgage rate
 📉 Why rates climbed from 5.9% to 7.17% even after six Fed rate cuts
 🛢️ The six factors driving mortgage rates right now, including oil and Treasury supply
 📊 A 92% chance of a Fed rate hike tomorrow...

Mortgage rates, inflation, and the bond market are all reacting to one thing this week: oil above $100 a barrel and the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Here's what the Fed is actually watching, and why mortgage rates could still fall even if they hike.

🛢️ Oil crosses $100 a barrel, and why that's the real story behind this week's inflation numbers
 📊 Breaking down the headline CPI, core CPI, and producer price index, and what each one tells the Fed
 📈 The mortgage bond and 10 Year Treasury charts I check every morning, and what a red day actually means for your rate
...

Mortgage rates jumped to 7% this week after hot inflation data, and the Federal Reserve now has a 70% chance of raising rates at next week's meeting. I break down this week's CPI and PPI reports, what the bond market is doing right now, and why oil prices are the number to watch next.

📊 This week's CPI and PPI inflation numbers, and where they missed (or hit) expectations
 📈 Why the bond market moved the way it did, plus where it's sitting right now
 🛢️ How oil, tariffs, and diesel prices near $6/gallon fed into this rate spike
 🏦 Why there's a 70...

Mortgage rates are pushing toward 7% today as hot inflation data raises the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at next week's meeting. In this update I break down today's PPI report, rising oil and diesel prices, and what the bond market is signaling for your mortgage rate right now.

📊 PPI inflation data comes in hot, pushing year over year producer prices to 5.4%
 🛢️ Oil tops $100 a barrel and diesel hits $6 a gallon, adding fresh inflation pressure
 🏦 CME FedWatch now shows a 65% chance the Federal Reserve hikes rates at next week's meeting
 📉 Bond market spreads point to mortgage...

Oil prices are falling right as this week's biggest inflation reports hit: PPI tomorrow, CPI Friday, and a Federal Reserve meeting next week that will decide what happens to your mortgage rate.

🛢️ Oil prices are dropping, and that ties directly into inflation and your mortgage rate 📊 PPI (producer inflation) drops tomorrow. Dan's forecast: hotter than consensus, driven by a base effect most people are missing 📈 CPI (consumer inflation) drops Friday, the number the Fed says will decide their next move 🏦 The Fed meets next week. Current odds sit at 62% heading in 💰 See what a move from 5.99% to 7.99% actually does to...

Mortgage rates are sitting at 6.9% and headed toward 7% this week as PPI, CPI, and the Fed's rate decision all hit. Dan Frio breaks down why this week's inflation data could push rates higher, what an 8-day-out Fed meeting with 60% hike odds means for you, and how oil pushing toward $100 a barrel factors in.

Full breakdown and rate tracking on the blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog

📊 THIS EPISODE 📉 Mortgage rates: currently 6.9%, on pace toward 7% 🏛️ Fed meets in 8 days: 60% odds of a rate hike 🔥 Dan's forecast: PPI, CPI, and core inflation all coming in hotter than Wall Street ex...

Mortgage rates today are reacting to a blowout jobs report that just shifted the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 12 days, with CPI and PPI inflation data still to come next week. Housing market news and Federal Reserve analysis, explained in plain English by a licensed mortgage loan officer with 38 years in the business. No hype. Just real data and practical next steps.

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📉 JOIN RATE WATCH — FREE Rate Monitoring ht...

Mortgage rates jumped from 5.9% to 6.9% since the Iranian conflict began, and I break down the Fed data, jobs report, and oil prices driving the move, plus what it costs your purchasing power.

📊 Mortgage rates rose from 5.9% to 6.9% since the Iranian conflict began
💰 See the exact payment and purchasing power difference on a $434,000 home
📈 Breaking down GDP, jobs data, and national debt driving mortgage bond yields
🛢️ Oil prices, initial jobless claims, and today's stock market moves
🏦 Fed rate hike odds drop to 54% as Chairman Waller points to next week's CPI
🔧 Tools to track your rate, compare l...

Mortgage rates jumped toward 7% this week while a weak jobs report just moved the bond market. I break down why oil prices, inflation, and today's Fed data are pushing your rate around, plus how much house you can actually afford right now.

📉 Why mortgage rates are pushing back toward 7% 🏦 How the Federal Reserve actually sets your rate (it's not what most people think) 🛢️ How oil prices drive inflation, and inflation drives your mortgage rate 📊 The jobs report data that just made the bond market jump 🏠 How much house you can afford at 7% versus 3.5%, and why it's a $152,000 difference 💰 Why...

Mortgage rates are climbing toward 7%, not the 5.99% many expected. I break down why: oil prices, global bond yields, AI debt, and the Fed's next move, plus what it means for your monthly payment.

📉 Why falling bond prices mean rising mortgage rates
 🛢️ Oil above $90 a barrel and why that's inflationary
 🌍 Global bond yields from Australia to the UK to Japan, and how they pull on your rate
 🤖 How AI companies issuing their own bonds are adding to the debt pushing rates up
 🏦 The Fed meets in 15 days, with a 65% chance of another rate hike
 💵 What this actua...

Mortgage rates today are under pressure after Brent crude broke $90 a barrel, and the Federal Reserve just put a rate HIKE back on the table. Here is what moved, what it costs, and what I am telling my clients to do about it.

Updated for Monday, August 31, 2026 — Mortgage bonds opened down 15 on oil and Middle East conflict, pushing mortgage rates toward 6.85% and possibly 7%. PCE inflation sits at 3.7% against the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with 54% of the basket running over 3% versus 32% before the pandemic. Inflation has now been above target for 64 straight months. Meanwhile 23,000 jobs were lost in July an...

Mortgage rates today are moving as Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks live from Jackson Hole. In this episode I explain what Jackson Hole is, why Warsh's comments move mortgage rates, and what this week's inflation, jobs, and GDP data mean for homebuyers, homeowners, and realtors.

In this episode:
- What Jackson Hole is and why Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech can move your mortgage rate today
- This week's data recap: consumer confidence, new home sales, PCE inflation, the GDP revision, and jobless claims
- Why oil prices and the Iran conflict are...

Mortgage rates are reacting this week to a surprising jobs report, sticky inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole meeting. In this video I break down what jobless claims, PCE inflation, and rising oil prices mean for mortgage rates, home affordability, and what the Fed does next. 

Homebuyers, homeowners, and Realtors, this is the week's mortgage rate update. Here's what I cover: 

• Why a stronger than expected jobs report is actually bad news for mortgage rates • How bond prices and yields actually work, explained simply • The Fed's two big concerns right now: inflation still at 3.7...

Mortgage rates today are being shaped by the Fed's PCE inflation report, the bond market, and a major shift in how the government is handling $40 trillion in national debt. Homebuyers and realtors, here's what it means for rates this week.

In this video I break down: