Mallen Baker: Faultlines

Immediately after celebrating the rescue of a US airman from Iran, Trump launched into a tirade that was extraordinary even for him - where he threatened actions that would count as war crimes against Iran, suggesting they had to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday to avert it. Just another flip-flop then, following his earlier message that he didn't care if the Strait was open or not? Well, yes. But the US normalising of intended war crimes, and the rise of somewhat disturbing 'holy war' rhetoric, is starting to make the operation seem even more unhinged than it...

In this news round-up of the week for Friday April 3rd 2026. After Trump's incoherent address to the nation the backlash against his war on Iran is widening, and given voice by a particularly sharp attack by French President Macron. The Pentagon is looking to exploit its existing treaty with Denmark to open three new military bases on Greenland - but that treaty was struck at a time before the US became a rogue superpower. And there has been a sudden rush of purges. President Trump fired Pam Bondi, possibly because she couldn't deliver convictions against Trump's enemies. And Pete...

The administration of President Donald Trump was quick to cancel USAID. But quietly since then, it has been reinstating some programmes - with a catch. Increasingly, his 'art of the deal' team are demanding that essential aid for HIV sufferers is tied to preferential access to minerals, and a ten year access to health information for all citizens. The 'deals' are egregiously one-sided, assuming that the other side will have no option. But increasingly now African nations are saying no. President Hakainde Hichilema of Zambia is the most recent, following in the wake of Zimbabwe's similar refusal. Let's discuss.<...

Another day, another verbal twist from the President of War. Yes, now Trump is SO furious at all those Europeans who apparently care about international law and war crimes, that he is threatening to pull the United States out of NATO. It's something we've heard before, and generally it's about trying to terrify the Europeans into dancing to President Trump's tune. But it's getting to the point where many will be seeing such an exit as not just inevitable - but actually a desirable outcome.

President Donald Trump, who just yesterday was threatening to commit war crimes against Iran if it didn't open the Strait of Hormuz, is now on whiplash mode again, and is now talking up the prospect of leaving Iran after a bit more bombing, whether the Strait is open or not. Those countries who need that oil, he said, can sort out the mess (that he is single-handedly responsible for) for themselves. Needless to say, many are not happy at this proposition. But out of the two scenarios, there is cause to think this will endure as the likeliest one...

The multi-faceted stream of consciousness from President Donald Trump about what he wants from the Iran war, when and how he might end said war, and more besides continues. Now he is saying straight out that he would like to take Iran's oil - something that would only be possible if the US actually occupied Kharg island, something which most analysts say could only happen at very high cost. So maybe he'll just bomb the island's facilities instead, along with all the rest of Iran's energy and water infrastructure. Or maybe America will declare victory, leave, and then work...

In principle, Palantir is just a company that helps governments to work smarter. In practice, it has embraced the absence of guardrails of the US administration of President Donald Trump, its technology can be used for expanding surveillance, and for making life and death decisions that are extremely in the public eye right now. Its most high profile project has been its support of ICE's mass deportation efforts, that have been so controversial they turned Trump's most popular issue into a liability. Now, it seems there is increasing pushback, and taking support from Palantir is becoming toxic in a...

In this news round-up of the week for Friday, March 27th 2026. Trump declares that Iran negotiations, which seem mostly to be conducted between the voices in his head, are going very well - meanwhile Iran is solidifying its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Meta and YouTube were found legally liable by a California jury for deliberately addicting users and causing harm to young people. A finding that could open the floodgates to many more. And Robert F Kennedy Junior's anti-vax agenda is falling apart as the Trump administration notices it might not be the vote-winner it had hoped...

Even though President Trump declared to the world that peace negotiations with Iran were advanced, and seeing agreement on most points of substance - today the US presented Iran with its starting-position 15 point plan. Iran basically shrugged it off, presented its own demands, and repeated that no negotiations have taken place, and Iran is not interested in a ceasefire. The absurd Trump claims would be hilarious if the conflict weren't causing such major consequences. But is it all a delaying game? Let's discuss.

The election in Hungary is getting closer - and we've been seeing all the things we knew were coming - Trump's endorsement of Viktor Orban, related to CPAC Hungary conference. Other far-right figures from across Europe turning up to give their support. Reams of Russian disinformation on social media. And ... wait, a false flag assassination attempt? Well, evidence has emerged that the idea was floated to the Kremlin at least - whether it was agreed or not. It gives some indication just how much weight Viktor Orban's autocratic allies are putting on him surviving his closest election yet. Let's...

President Donald Trump has form in claiming that he is in active negotiations with other leaders, or with countries, when the other parties deny any such thing is happening, and it turns out that they were right. So it's somewhat surreal to find him making exactly that sort of claim about the Iranian leadership, when there is precisely nothing you would expect could be achieved by doing so. Except that any excuse to delay an unviable deadline gives him more time to come up with more distractions. And any excuse will give the stock market a boost and oil...

In the course of 24 hours, President Donald Trump went from saying that he was looking at 'winding down' the Iran war, to issuing threats to escalate the crisis should Iran refuse to completely open up the Strait of Hormuz. Such massive whiplash on positions suggest that he is getting increasingly agitated about his options, and is looking around - and testing out publicly - the course of action that will enable him to get out of this situation while credibly claiming victory. But, on that score, nothing much is going his way. Which could be entertaining to watch, except...

In this news round-up for March 20th 2026: Iran's strike on Qatar has triggered what energy analysts are calling an "Armageddon scenario" for global gas markets — and Trump's denial that the US knew about the Israeli attack that provoked it lacks credibility. President Trump invoked Pearl Harbor during the latest Oval Office struggle session, this time with Japan's prime minister Takaichi. Then praised Japan for support that seems somewhat theoretical. And eleven weeks after US forces arrested Venezuela's president, we catch up with what's been happening there since.

According to one of his best allies in the Senate, President Donald Trump is more furiously angry about having none of America's allies agree to join it dealing with the consequences of his illegal war on Iran, than he's ever been seen. How did we reach this moment? From the time when the consensus seemed to be to flatter and appease Trump, to the point where former allies of the United States are content to defy his wishes - and have clearly reached the conclusion that the consequences of so doing are little different to those of doing what...

In the last few days, the administration of President Donald Trump has been going hard after the media - any journals or networks that have reported the slightest bad news about Trump's Iran war have been getting schooled on being more patriotic. That could just be so much business as usual - except that the FCC Chair Brendan Carr has pitched in to suggest that 'fake news' about the war would be remembered at licence renewal time, and defence secretary Pete Hegseth has been publicly pitching for the takeover of CNN to see a more compliant political stance. Is...

President Trump told NATO allies, as well as countries like Japan, South Korea and even main geopolitical rival China, that they must send warships to help open the Strait of Hormuz - or else. This would be bad for NATO. He would delay his planned visit to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping. And so far, having spent the last year being insulted, threatened, tariffed and bullied - all of those countries are saying 'no thanks'. Is this the pivotal moment where the US, having realised it needs alliances, will cut them off one and for all? Let's discuss.<...

It's not a secret that Elon Musk's xAI platform, Grok, is not entirely like other AI models. Specifically, he has gone to great lengths to ensure it absorbs his ethos and "anti-woke" mindset, even as he has been promising it would overtake all the other models any day soon. However, it seems not all has been well in xAI - and Musk has been clearing out the old guard, firing people all over, and talking publicly about reapproaching people who were rejected for job interviews who may have been what they needed after all. Could it be that training...

In this news round-up of the week for Friday March 13th 2026. Pentagon insiders reveal that Trump's war on Iran has burned through years of critical munitions in two weeks of his illegal war on Iran. And this could seriously weaken the US in dangerous times. As the Pentagon tries to isolate and damage AI company Anthropic for ethical restrictions on what its system will do, Microsoft has stepped out, risking billions in government contracts, to stand alongside it. And Trump's threats and insults against Canada continue to backfire as Mark Carney's government comes close to an overall parliamentary majority.<...

The alarm bells across the world are really starting to sound loudly now, as the short-term effects on the cost and availability of energy and fertiliser is hitting the citizens of countries across the world. President Donald Trump's war of choice with Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. He has proven unable to reopen it, and the future consequences if this remains the case for an extended period have been predicted as being 'catastrophic'. Let's do the quickest of canters across the globe to see what's happening right now - and reflect on Trump's latest contribution where he...

Today, the Financial Times reported on a leaked proposal for Russia to engage in a disinformation and influence campaign in support of the re-election of autocrat Viktor Orban. This comes as his opponent in next month's election, Peter Magyar, is significantly ahead in independent polling. But President Vladimir Putin does not want to lose his best ally in Europe. President Donald Trump likewise. And hence begins what may be a template election for Russian and American influence campaigns on behalf of populists across Europe over the coming years. The stakes could not be higher. Let's discuss.

Trump has started talking in terms of the war being complete, and stressing that it was just an 'excursion' - a sign, according to stock markets and commodity traders, that he is looking pretty urgently for an off-ramp from the Iran war. Is Trump, some are asking, about to TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) out of the Iran war? Well, unfortunately, it's not quite that simple. In a war, it doesn't fall to just one side whether it stops or not. And, in this case, there is plenty of evidence that the consequences will be significant even if it...

Even before Iran had announced the selection of its new Supreme Leader, President Trump and Israel had said they were intending to assassinate whoever it was - unless Trump was involved in the selection. It's a breathtaking statement of imperial ambition - and one that has not been revised after the revealing of Mojtaba Khamenei as that leader. It's also a major breach of the last 400 years of statecraft. This is not a new norm the world wants to set, and yet who is really standing up to defend the old order? Let's discuss.

Xi Jinping's China sees itself as the rising primary power in the world, soon to take over from the fading old empire of the United States. But it knows its new, rapidly growing military, is untested, and may remain so up until it gets called into action over Taiwan. So it has been taking a very keen interest in President Donald Trump's war in Iran, and took the unusual step of releasing five of the key lessons they have learned from doing so. They are real points, and quite instructive, so let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday March 6th 2026. The first of Trump's Cabinet Secretaries to be fired is Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Trump declares that he will only accept Unconditional Surrender from Iran, but don't worry - it's not REALLY a war. We discuss something you may not have noticed, sparked by the appearance of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Oval Office. And Anthropic is officially designated a risk to national security - and yet Claude is now number one in the Apple app store.

Most of the international community know that President Donald Trump's war on Iran, having been launched without any sort of imminent threat, having been focused on assassinating all the leadership of the regime, is illegal under international law. Hence why they have not been queueing up to take part in the offensive operations. But so far, they have mostly been muted in their criticism. Step forward Pedro Sanchez, prime minister of Spain, who has been extremely forthright in his condemnation of the action, and robust in the face of threats from Trump about sanctions that may be brought to...

President Donald Trump has muttered darkly about the need to take federal control of the mid-term elections. And now, the evidence suggests that his team has a plan for how to do it - how to take control, and you have to presume to seek to get the outcome that he desires. This is the key pivot point for American democracy - because this will either be the moment that shocks America awake to its democratic backsliding - or it chooses not to engage, and accepts the end destination of elective autocracy. Let's discuss. While we still can.

War is a serious business. You would hope. But since President Donald Trump announced the start of the war against Iran, the US conduct has been typified by constantly changing commentary on why the war was started, and what its objectives are, constant lying about various details, and nothing that suggests that the mortal danger created for American servicemen and Iranian civilians is being created with any sort of care and attention. Indeed, it could best be described as a clown show. If the US soldiers are lions, then they truly are being led by donkeys. Let's discuss.

There are seven ways that President Donald Trump has broken, or significantly altered, the US system, and the global political or economic system. Ways that mean that, when he has finally left office, the world will still remain a very different place to how it was when he most recently found it. Let's look at each of those seven ways, along with the two that either are not yet broken, or might yet still be retrievable. And we'll reflect on why none of this should be the end of focus and hope for the future. Let's discuss.

President Trump has declared war - not a special military operation, not an in-and-out abduction. A full-on offensive assault with the stated goal of regime change. The assault has targeted the country's senior leadership, has been accompanied by calls to the people to rise up and depose their government. And the argument has been that this is okay because the regime is genuinely deplorable and deserves to fall. And yet, Donald Trump and his bizarre collection of loyalists is the very definition of someone you would not entrust to such a venture. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up for the week of 27 February 2026: If 2025 was about corporate cowardice and capitulation to the Trump revolution, 2026 is seeing more and more standing up to the bullying. So the AI company Anthropic - threatened with massive sanction by the Pete Hegseth's Pentagon - has regardless refused to give it the right to use its models for mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. Netflix publicly defied President Trump over a board member not to his liking because, and walked away from a major merger deal after meeting the White House. And Nearly two thousand companies are looking for...

Today saw Hillary Clinton being quizzed in Congress about the man she never met, while President Trump, who is all over the files, faces no such pressure. We have news that certain key files, including testimony about Trump's alleged wrongdoing, is being withheld by the Department of Justice. Meanwhile, across Europe, real people are feeling much more robust repercussions for their own part in one of the worst scandals in modern history. Why is it one way in the US, and another way elsewhere? And what happens next? Let's discuss.

Trump promised that the State of the Union address 2026 would be 'long, because there's lots to talk about'. Some of that talk is likely to be peevish, complaining, even angry. After all, having started the year on a high, it's been pretty much a massive slog ever since. And especially with the huge setback on tariffs, that we have to pretend wasn't a setback at all, and the uncomfortable fact that having marched the US navy to Iran, he doesn't quite know what he wants them to do while they're there. And all his party wants him to talk...

In (yet another) moment of the truly surreal, President Trump announced this weekend that he is sending a hospital ship to Greenland to help with all the people getting sick there who are being left untreated. Which is odd, since that's not happening. It seems, on its face, to be the world's clumsiest attempt to curry favour with a people who you've literally just united against you by threatening to take them over by force. So what's going on? Let's discuss.

In this news roundup of the week for Friday February 20th 2026. The Supreme Court strikes down President Trump's emergency tariffs in the single biggest setback since he started his second term. We discover exactly why Trump flip-flopped yet again on the UK transferring ownership of the Chagos islands. And Trump makes a dramatic new announcement - about aliens.

Trump's Board of Peace had its first meeting today, and it was pretty much what you would have expected. Lots of praise for Trump, lots of big promises for the great future ahead of Gaza with all the development that will be coming - and relatively little attention to the tricky obstacle that none of it can happen until Hamas agrees to disarm, which they show little inclination to do. And while Trump and the assembled mostly-autocrats wax lyrical on peace, Trump is pondering the options for launching a military strike against Iran. Because that's what 'Peace Presidents' do...

It would be entirely possible for President Trump, or A.N.Other autocrat, to seek to dismantle the guardrails of democracy in their country and all the rest of it, while still keeping a firm grasp of what is, or isn't reality, and dealing with it as needed. But that is not the current way, because Trump is determined to believe only his own version of reality, even when that is massively and easily contradicted by facts and events. The trouble is that if you insist on flying in the face of reality, it will often not end well...

Trump's Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke this weekend at the Munich Security Conference, and he made probably the most cogent and professional speech on behalf of the MAGA world view we've heard. Unfortunately, the sentiments it expressed stood in stark contrast to the words of his boss and the actions of the administration - a fact that was not lost on his audience. But the quality of the speech, and the way he handled the occasion, has some chattering with renewed vigour about the possibility of a Rubio presidential candidacy for 2028. Let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday February 13th 2026. As the Epstein Files revelations have continued to appear, the talk has turned to just how far-reaching the so-called Epstein Class has turned out to be - and it's feeding a real push for messaging around the midterm elections. The Trump administration abolishes the basis for most climate regulation in America. And Trump is staring Iran in the face, with his naval armada at his back, and yet it seems likely he will be the one to blink first.

As the Munich Security Conference kicks off this year - the same one that was made famous last year thank's to JD Vance's speech telling Europeans to shape up - NATO is conducting exercises in Greenland. The official story is that this is all about reassuring US President Trump that the country is defended against the nefarious Russians and Chinese. But it is obviously widely understood that it's not about REASSURING Trump, but more about deterring him. This comes as several scenario planning exercises suggest that NATO would crumble quickly in contact with a Russian incursion - thanks to...

President Trump has attacked Canada again, and this time said that he will prevent the opening of a new bridge between the two countries. And this is ostensibly because of a long list of supposed grievances, up to and including something about China banning ice hockey. But the real story is more prosaic, and one that seems unlikely to go away any time soon. As much to do with the quiet but determined role prime minister Mark Carney has played in reflecting reality in his recent speeches, and the fact that Canada refused to bow down to Trump in...