Mallen Baker: Faultlines

Let's say that the 2028 Presidential Election goes ahead, and Trump has imploded over the course of his term, so that regardless of their various attempts to weight the scales in their favour, MAGA Republicans lose. The new incoming administration is going to face a remarkably transformed America. And they will have to have a very clear idea of the spirit, and the detail, of how they hope to move forward. They will need to do so knowing that tailwinds for Trump will turn into headwinds for them. And there will be powerful enemies, and difficult temptations. Do they need...

In this news round-up of the week, China stuns the West and infuriates Trump by expanding its tight control over more of its rare earth minerals - with particular implications for Western militaries. Trump's many court cases are starting to get more and more pushback from judges exasperated with the administration's arrogance and incompetence, just as another vengeance indictment is brought against Letitia James. The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize is awarded, which for some reason gets a lot more attention this year than usual. Also, I answer a Patreon question on Europe and Trump if Russia loses the war. Let's...

It may only be the first part that will be implemented, but even so the Trump peace deal for Gaza represents - against all the odds - a real breakthrough. Both parties have swallowed a starting position that crosses their previous red lines. But while families are anxiously awaiting the release of hostages, and everyone is celebrating as though peace has finally been delivered, the truth is that there is a lot more hard work to be done. And there's nothing in the somewhat juvenile posturing right now that suggests that here is an administration equal to the task...

The US / EU trade deal was always tricky - within hours of it being signed the two sides were giving radically different interpretations of what it covered. Well, now - unsurprisingly - President Trump is back and he has the EU's regulations in his sights. Specifically, any regulations that get applied to American companies, such as the tech giants. He has environmental rules in his sights, as well as privacy and anti-trust laws. He's doing it because the EU demonstrated weakness in negotiating the deal. The question is - will they now push back against the demands, at the...

French President Emmanuel Macron's fifth prime minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned after just a couple of weeks in post, as it became obvious that the task was simply impossible. This leaves France in a political mess, largely because of its ongoing economic mess. However, this goes way beyond France. Arguably, Macron's France is just the advance guard for the political upheavals that are coming to all Western democratic countries - and soon. Sounds like something we should discuss!

Judge Diane Goodstein ruled against the Trump administration recently, and got numerous death threats for her pains. Two days ago, her house burned down. At this point, there is no evidence whatsoever that this was a deliberately caused event, but it is obvious - at a time when the rhetoric against judges who impede President Trump has been vitriolic - that it could be the latest incident in the run of political violence incidents. Even if it's not, it's highly instructive just how America has been responding during the early hours when not much is known for sure. Let's...

The Trump 20-point peace deal for Gaza has been welcomed by all the people worldwide who routinely flatter Trump at every opportunity - but also by others, such as the Arab states who have significant influence with Hamas. So should we be optimistic then, with everyone talking about how all the hostages will be freed within days, and this could finally be the big shift - Israel will withdraw, Gaza will be at peace, an oversight body will begin reconstruction leading a pathway to future Palestinian self-rule? Well, not so fast. Because amongst all that optimism, there seems to...

In this news round-up of the week, while testing Europe with drones, Russia's President Putin gives a major speech where he makes a substantial pivot in how he treats Trump's United States in relation to Ukraine. The US government is shut down, and both sides are trying to blame the other for what follows. YouTube gives Trump lots of money to spend on his ballroom. And I answer a Patreon supporter's question about Keir Starmer's Digital ID proposal in the United Kingdom. Let's jump in.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had his email read by a cameraman with a zoom lens, and it exposed the fury going on behind the scenes over President Trump's $20 billion support for Argentina's populist leader Javier Milei. At a time when Trump's tariffs and trade war with China has resulted in American soybean farmers being thrown into crisis, they can't help but notice one thing that has really added insult to injury. Let's discuss.

Pete Hegseth insisted on bringing together the very top brass of all the US military into one room so he could ... lecture them on grooming. And the Warrior Ethos. And then President Trump took over, to give a rambling rant about - well, all the things he usually rants about. Plus a few pointers on using the military within the US against American protestors, and giving permission for the use of lethal force. But mostly it was about anti-woke, and insisting that if they didn't like it, they should resign. In exactly the way that authoritarians through time immemorial...

The Ryder Cup made headlines this weekend - because the MAGA crowd barracked the opposing team, hurled abuse at the players, offensive insults at their wives, even threw beer over Erika McIlroy, and tried to put the European team off their stroke by calling out as they were taking their swing. Ugly, despicable behaviour, just hours after Trump had visited to show his support. Maybe it's a one-off, but it feels more like the MAGA movement is making cruelty a feature of America's face to the world. And this event is therefore more symbolic of the change that's happening...

When President Trump and Stephen Miller argue that heated rhetoric encourages political violence, you might think it is a fair comment point of view. And yet, it's impossible not to note that both utilise more inflammatory language than almost anyone else. And their opponents frequently point this out ... to almost zero effect. This video is about why the blatant hypocrisy works as a device for preparing the population for authoritarian acts of impunity. It matters, because if the opposition is to be effective, they have to stop falling into the traps set for them. So let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week, we cover the Trump DOJ move at last to put into practice the boss's public instructions to get an indictment. Even if this case stands little chance of success, it is a new front and will be the first of numerous attempts to come. Also we discuss Tulsi Gabbard abandoning future-looking Intelligence reports because the facts don't fit the current ideology. RFK Jr's puzzling harangue of the United Nations on health. YouTube's admission that it was put under pressure by the Biden Administration to censor content, and Albania's new AI initiative that...

After his big moment berating the United Nations, President Trump met with President Zelensky and had things to say on the Ukraine war that nobody was quite expecting. Not only was Zelensky astonished, the Europeans stunned, but Russia's administration reacted with a sharpness that we've not seen in reaction to Trump so far this year. Something has changed - but does it actually mean anything? And why has the US quietly paused selling weapons to NATO countries? Well, let's discuss.

Just when it looked like the Trump Administration could just demand whatever it wanted and all the institutions, all the corporations, all the politicians would ultimately just quietly fold - finally at least one corporation - for now - has stood back up again. And the result of that move by Disney / ABC is that the Jimmy Kimmel Show is back on air from tonight. But this is the beginning of the fight, not the victory. The local affiliates who pulled the show from their areas are still not distributing it. The FCC Chair is swearing he didn't intend...

We all know about China's surveillance state - it's pretty terrifying, but it was built more or less from the ground up to suit the authoritarians. Every other autocrat - or would-be autocrat - will have to retrofit the technology onto existing internets that were built by private companies following demand, rather than any kind of state-sponsored plan. Russia is now leading the way - with a three-tier plan that is being executed right now. And when you look at what it's doing - well, there's some spooky parallels with things that Trump is doing in the very different...

The Charlie Kirk memorial today marked the inflection point that MAGA believes the event of his assassination represented. As a result, the administration has ramped up its move against President Trump's opponents. Yesterday, Trump accidentally told the world that he is pushing the Attorney General Pam Bondi towards bringing prosecutions against key political figures. It could not be more blatant - but blatant is suddenly becoming the standard operating practice. Is MAGA mistaking the moment - thinking that Kirk's death has given them permission to go further and faster than they really have? Which is why suddenly even some...

In this news round-up of the week - In the aftermath of Charlie Kirk's assassination, the Trump team has been acting quickly on its intended crackdown on opponents. Trump's FCC chairman got rid of another late night comedian, Jimmy Kimmel. Trump designated Antifa as a terrorist organisation. But this is just the start - various experienced politicians close to the action identify that the real target is much bigger. Also, it is confirmed that Alexei Navalny was poisoned in prison. Russia tests NATO again. And we learn that the AI robot revolution - well, it faces an apparent formidable...

As we already anticipated, the aftermath of the shooting of Charlie Kirk is seeing a wave of increasingly audacious action by the Trump Administration to crack down on political opponents and criticism of their operation. Now, following the previous shutting down of The Late Show With Stephen Colbert, we have the next in line - with Jimmy Kimmel's show being cancelled for what seems, on inspection, to be a pretty safe commentary. But what was safe yesterday, is no longer safe. Not since the FCC is leveraging corporate cowardice to get its way. Let's discuss.

As the COP30 climate conference approaches, it's hard to ignore that a backlash against climate policy - and a scepticism in some quarters about climate change full stop - is growing in many parts of the world. Partly, this is down to the Trump effect, with Trump himself actively pushing countries to commit to fossil fuels, and with MAGA-style populists taking up the anti-net zero theme wherever they rise. Partly, it's also due to the moment - and the fact that the political pendulum swings back eventually. So what does that mean for our progress in actually getting on...

The Trump Administration is full of talk about the crackdown they will be bringing in the aftermath of the assassination of Charlie Kirk. President Trump has said he wants George Soros to be in prison. Maybe Antifa could be designated a terrorist organisation. Maybe various trans groups. Stephen Miller has ideas of his own, as does JD Vance. Pam Bondi wants to go after 'hate speech'. All they need is some tenuous link between their target and what they're calling 'radical left lunacy'. And some of the links so far are pretty tenuous. So is this really going to...

The US and Xi Jinping's China have been conducting more trade talks - and today it was announcement that maybe they'd reached a deal ... on TikTok. Meanwhile, the consequences of President Trump's tariffs are really starting to make themselves felt, with American soybean farmers having no orders from China, with all farmers suffering from soaring input costs, and meanwhile China is buying more than it ever has from countries like Brazil, and selling more than it ever has to the continent of Africa. Those consequences are going to become more an more far-reaching, and they are likely to outlive...

In this Q&A video I cover Europe giving up on expecting Trump to play a part in Ukraine peace process, predictions for our polarised societies - is this here to stay? Why is the US stock market so strong despite the downsides of Trump's tariffs? Did we learn the lessons from Kamala's defeat? Trump's intentions on Alberta separatism. The impact of US poisoned politics on the UK. Teflon Trump. What should Brits do about racism? And then a couple of questions on my political past.

In this news round-up of the week for Friday September 12th 2025 - The fall-out from the assassination of Charlie Kirk continues, and the Trump team are talking about the shape of the retribution to come. The shooter himself is in custody, no thanks to Kash Patel's FBI, although he's keen to take the credit. One country just had a revolution, all because the government tried to ban social media. Donald Trump says the drone incursion sent into Poland by Russia could well have 'been a mistake' as Russia gears up for major war game exercises near the border. And...

The tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk has jolted America, but seems unlikely to provide the crisis moment that shocks the country awake to its catastrophic decline towards crisis. The rise of political violence is a reflection of the intense polarisation, as well as the influence of social media bubbles that help each side to dehumanise the other. The question will be what the Trump administration does next with this. That could go very dark, or could be passed up entirely. Either way, it's hard to see a circumstance where this situation improves quickly. Let's discuss.

Russia sent a number of drones into Poland - the first major incursion into NATO territory that Russia has made in recent times. This provoked NATO forces to shoot down those drones - but the outstanding question is - what's the play? Most likely, it is all about Vladimir Putin poking NATO trying to reveal to the world, and to itself, that President Trump's America will run away if it thinks that Article 5 might be close to being invoked. It's a dangerous game - and one that might well succeed. Let's discuss.

The concerns about the Trump Administration's summary execution of eleven people in a boat in international waters off Venezuela - alleged to be gang members involved in drug smuggling - have been growing louder. This burst into full view with an angry spat between vice president JD Vance and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul over Vance's statement of impunity over the action. Meanwhile, the US forces remain in place, Venezuela is poking them with near fly-pasts by its air fighters, and it could all escalate further at any moment. Let's discuss.

The stoics would tell you that you can't control what happens to you in the world, you can only control how you respond to it. Well, it turns out that having a post-truth populist in charge of the most powerful country in the world has ripple effects over the rest of the world. Other world leaders, the mainstream media, and indeed other autocrats - it could be that the majority of Trump's impact on the world will come not from the individual acts he takes, but how the rest of the world changes its own behaviours to cope with...

Trump is coming to the UK in ten days time. And not just for any old visit, but for a 'very special' and 'unprecedented' second state visit. All the pomp and pageantry ... and protest. In this video I answer the question, what SHOULD Brits do about the honoured guest Trump when he arrives for his state visit. Is there anything they could do that would make any sort of difference? Well, let's discuss.

We'd already picked up that Trump's America wanted to pull resources from Europe and the Middle East with a view to concentrating its full focus on its main rival and growing threat - China. Well, a leaked draft Defence Strategy seen by Politico, has revealed that the thinking has done a sharp pivot specifically in relation to China. It is hugely consequential, and might reflect the core of a strategy that survives Trump and defines America's future place in the world. So let's discuss.

In this news round-up of the week, Trump sides with Putin in blaming European leaders for his frustrations about the lack of progress in ending the Ukraine war. The US blows a boat with eleven people out of the water because it has decided they are narco-terrorists. The world's smallest and newest petrostate just had a crucial election. And a good old-fashioned British tabloid feeding frenzy has brought the deputy Prime Minister down. Plus, I respond to a comment on a recent video.

The leader of Reform UK and best bud of Donald Trump, Nigel Farage, testified to Congress yesterday and told Americans that the UK has a free speech crisis and has become akin to North Korea. That is patently absurd, and some of the supporting evidence given for it is likewise. But some of it is not, and some of the most telling instances are not even being highlighted. So what's really going on? Let's discuss.

China has been hosting an economic summit that brought together Russia, Indian and numerous other countries from the global south. And then it topped that off with one of its spectacular military parades that put Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un in the spotlight, and rather showed up Trump's birthday parade as being a pale imitation. But the serious business underlying all this is the growing momentum the Trump administration is giving to the growth of a powerful and assertive group of non-Western nations, and the rise of China as the first and most powerful amongst them...

Back in May, we saw the numbers of visitors to the United States plummeting in the wake of President Trump's attacks on most countries in the world with his tariffs and much else besides. Particularly with visitors from Canada, but also Europe and elsewhere. It was speculated that, if it continued, it would wipe billions of revenue off the US tourism industry and leave a lot of, particularly small, tourist businesses in significant trouble. So at the end of the holiday season, how much did those predictions bear up? As it turns out, pretty robustly. With one interesting exception...

Lots of people have been speculating this weekend that maybe Trump has been out of sight because his health isn't good. That all seems overblown, but it did focus people's minds briefly on what would come next had it been the case. And the fact is that there are reasons to think it would be substantially different, and in many ways potentially much more difficult even than the erratic Trump 2.0 experience. It all focuses on the rise of artificial intelligence, and how the race to the bottom on AI-enabled authoritarianism, and the rise of tech companies as sovereign global...

If anything has defined Donald Trump's second term as president, it is his use of tariffs to bully the world into giving the US highly unequal trade deals. He has used tariffs as an economic bludgeon, but also a political punishment weapon - targeting India and Brazil for political, not economic, reasons. Well, now it is all up in the air as the appeals court has confirmed that all of it was Trump exceeding his powers and authority. Now he is left dangling for months waiting for the Supreme Court to rule - and if it upholds the decision...

In this news round-up of the week, countries are forming common-interest groups across the world to find ways to reduce their exposure to Trump's America and to work on the old rules-based trade order. Also, the world postal services stop sending parcels to the US. Russia pummels Ukraine's capital - Europeans hope Trump will take note, and you can guess how that goes. The head of the CDC is fired for not being anti-vax enough. And more. Plus, I answer a couple of your questions.

You're not supposed to be able to use the Presidency of the United States in order to enrich yourself. Indeed, previous presidents provoked controversy even from commanding lucrative deals AFTER they'd been in the office. But all those rules are out of the window with President Trump. Between deals for Trump licensing, gifts, crypto initiatives, and more - Trump has been doing very well indeed over the last seven months. Indeed, once you step back you can't help but notice - his distinctive style of confrontational leadership couldn't be better calculated to encourage lots of wealthy people to see...

We knew that Trump's Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard had directed spies to go into Greenland as part of a covert influence operation. Now, Denmark has identified three individuals doing exactly what she had directed - gathering names of potential supporters to try to seed a secessionist movement, to create conflict and division between Greenlanders and Denmark. This shows that, not only has Trump's ambition to take Greenland not gone away, but it's likely that lack of progress to date may prompt him to become impatient. Let's discuss.

We know all about some of the very public moves - gerrymandering in Texas, for instance. But across multiple measures - many of which are hidden in plain sight - Trump's MAGA Republican Party is step by step dismantling America's processes for ensuring free and fair elections. The details don't capture the public attention, but unless they're halted, it could be the start of an extended dark period for the US the like of which it hasn't seen for a very long time. Let's discuss.