The Rules of Investing

5 Shocking Predictions brings together bold investment forecasts spanning Australian shares, bonds, Chinese technology, geopolitics and energy.

The presentations explore:

The ASX 200 looks expensive, economic growth is subdued, and higher interest rates are putting renewed pressure on valuations. But that doesn’t mean there’s no value left in the Australian market.

At Livewire Live, First Sentier Investors’ Dushko Bajic, L1 Capital’s James Hawkins and Ausbil Investment Management’s Arden Jennings were asked where they are still finding opportunities on the ASX.

All three are looking beyond the market’s largest companies, but their approaches differ considerably.

Bajic is finding opportunities in businesses exposed to major investment cycles, including electrification, AI infrastructure, defence and...

Five years ago, owning the right handful of global technology stocks could transform a portfolio. The challenge today is deciding whether the next five years will reward investors for sticking with those winners or looking somewhere else entirely. That was the question put to Antipodes Partners Portfolio Manager Vihari Ross and Ophir Asset Management Co-Founder and Senior Portfolio Manager Andrew Mitchell at Livewire Live.

Both believe opportunities remain within AI. But neither thinks the answer is simply buying the companies dominating today's headlines.

Ross is finding value further down the semiconductor supply chain, in businesses...

Soul Patts has been investing for more than a century – but CEO Todd Barlow says today's market demands a very different playbook.

Speaking with Livewire Markets Co-Founder James Marlay at Livewire Live 2026, Barlow explains why Soul Patts is sitting on roughly 20% cash, why its exposure to listed equities has fallen dramatically, and why higher interest rates have raised the hurdle for taking risk. Barlow also discusses the opportunities Soul Patts missed in US technology, where it believes it has an edge in private credit, and why asset allocation can matter more than picking the next winning stock.

We’re bringing the best of Livewire Live directly to your podcast feed!

Over the next week, we’re releasing a series of special episodes recorded live from our annual event, featuring an incredible lineup of Australia’s leading investors.

The topics range from asset allocation and investor psychology to Aussie and global shares, megatrends and of course our annual 5 shocking predictions.

We’ll return to our regular format in mid-October. 

The S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs, record IPOs are hitting the market, and investors have enjoyed a stellar three years of double-digit returns. It’s fair to say that the party in global equity markets is in full swing.

The yield on the US 10-year bond has surged to 5.11% - the highest level since July 2007. We all know how that party ended.

​In this episode of The Rules of Investing, T. Rowe Price's Iona Dent explains why she believes the earnings story in equities outweighs concerns around rising bond yields and walks through the...

Lazard Asset Management's Dr Philipp Hofflin explains how increasing volatility and reduced liquidity are creating opportunities, takes a look back at the “fallen angel” stocks he bought a year ago, and picks another beaten up stock that’s great value.

Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense
This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense.
Discover decision-grade AI now - Visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

In this episode of The Rules of Investing, we discuss what value investing looks like in 2026, why market concentration has reached levels seen only a handful of times in history, and whether investors have been too quick to sort companies into AI winners and losers. We also explore the investment lessons Ross has carried through a 25-year career, and the US senior housing company she would be comfortable owning if markets closed for the next five years.   Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense
This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense.
Discover decision-grade AI now - Visit alpha-sense.c...

​No doubt fundamentals matter over time, but the extreme moves that we see in financial markets can make for a hair-raising ride and can often shake weak hands from their positions.

In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Sebastian Mullins offers real-world examples that highlight why paying attention to big-picture headlines matters and explains his value, cycle, liquidity (VCL) framework, which informs his asset allocation decisions. The episode also digs into why he is constructive on global equity markets, how he is playing it and presents a breakdown of the different tools that he uses to re...

In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Qiao Ma of Munro Partners explains why curiosity and grit are essential traits for long-term investors. We discuss: 

​Ryder Capital has just clocked up its third consecutive year of 25% plus returns, and has been paying consistent, growing dividends since 2018. ​In this episode Lauren De Zilva explains how Ryder looks for mispriced opportunities and the thesis behind the firm's largest portfolio holding. She also shares two small-cap investments that meet Ryder’s disciplined investment process.

Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense
This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense.
Discover decision-grade AI now - Visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Hedley Widdup from Lion Selection Group joins The Rules of Investing to discuss why the resources cycle may still be in its early stages, the outlook for gold and copper, and where he is finding opportunities among Australian micro-cap miners.

In this episode:

Samantha Wong was employee #1 at Blackbird Ventures, the largest shareholder in design software giant Canva and one of Australia’s most influential venture capital firms. When Sam joined Blackbird in 2015, the Australian VC ecosystem was in its infancy - a cottage industry with just a few hundred participants. The landscape has changed dramatically over the past decade as companies like Atlassian, Afterpay, SafetyCulture, and Canva have captured investor attention and created a thriving breeding ground for innovation. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Sam discusses the rapid evolution of the VC landscape in Australia and New Zealand, wh...

While the market obsesses over volatile AI software and tech start-ups, global private equity giant EQT says the real money is being made in the physical layer. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, Ken Wong, Partner and Head of Asia Pacific Infrastructure at EQT Partners, breaks down why the massive, structural build-out of data centres and renewable energy grid connectivity is the market’s most misunderstood, and overlooked, growth opportunity.

While the market's gaze is fixed on the horizon, the ground beneath quality stocks has shifted, delivering the toughest period of performance since the lead-up to the GFC. But as the saying goes, “it’s always darkest before dawn.” In this episode of The Rules of Investing, James Abela explains why it is critical to have a process for navigating challenging markets, and highlights the bright spots, both globally and on the ASX, that are presenting a breadth of opportunities in small and mid-cap companies.

Chris Watling from Longview Economics joins The Rules of Investing to discuss the global macro outlook, including AI-driven market concentration, inflation, oil, interest rates, Australian housing, and the hidden fragility beneath parts of the US economy and equity market.

In this episode:

After four years away, Patrick Poke is returning to The Rules of Investing. In this short relaunch episode, Patrick and James Marlay reflect on the podcast’s evolution, the return of video episodes, and what listeners can expect next.

While rate hikes, inflation, and budget uncertainty have dampened the spirits of many equity investors, one corner of the market is quietly thriving.

The S&P Emerging Companies Index (XEC) has surged 35% over the past 12 months, proving that there is "always a bull market somewhere" if you know where to look.

In this episode, Joel Fleming, Portfolio Manager of the UBS Micro Cap Fund, reveals why the most exciting opportunities often lie in the market’s least efficient spaces.

The GFC exposed a harsh reality: for investors in or near retirement, large drawdowns aren’t just uncomfortable — they can be permanent. Aaron Binsted from Lazard Asset Management saw this firsthand. It shaped the thinking behind a strategy designed to deliver equity returns with lower volatility and a focus on growing income. In this episode, we cover how markets are navigating today’s macro backdrop, why “economic diversification” matters more than ever, and the under-appreciated dividend growers Binsted is backing on the ASX.

Markets are wobbling, sentiment is turning, and investors are starting to question what comes next. In this episode, Munro Partners CIO Nick Griffin explains why he still believes we’re in a bull market, how the war in Iran is impacting markets, and why AI is forcing a major rethink on tech investing.

Gold has re-entered the spotlight, but L1 Capital believes investors may be looking in the wrong place. After years of investing in commodities, the firm formalised its view with a dedicated gold strategy in March 2025, now set to list as the L1 Gold Fund Limited (ASX: LGF, subject to approval).

Co-Chief Investment Officer Raphael Lamm sees the real opportunity not in bullion, but in overlooked gold equities trading on “astounding” free cash flow yields. Crucially, the strategy does not depend on rising gold prices, with valuations anchored in conservative assumptions.

In this episode of The Rule...

Periods of intense uncertainty test even the most seasoned investors. Today, markets face several competing forces: artificial intelligence reshaping industries, geopolitical tensions fuelling energy volatility, and elevated valuations alongside concentration in parts of the Australian equity market.

For Yarra Capital Management’s Dion Hershan, these environments demand discipline rather than panic. While investors remain fixated on macro headlines, he argues many meaningful micro changes are being overlooked. Drawing on experience across multiple market cycles, from the tech wreck to the global financial crisis, Hershan believes the decisions made in turbulent periods often matter most. In fact, he sa...

For much of the past year, investors have been focused on growth stocks and AI winners. But some of the strongest returns have come from stocks the market had largely written off. James Hawkins, Head of L1 Capital’s Catalyst Fund, is building a reputation for finding value where others aren’t looking, combining deep research with an activist mindset to unlock it. That strategy has helped drive a strong year for the fund, with contrarian positions in companies like BlueScope Steel and Mineral Resources fuelling 30% gains. In this episode of the Rules of Investing, Hawkins explains L1’s affini...

Private lending has expanded rapidly over the past decade as banks pulled back from parts of the corporate market. The result has been a surge of capital chasing income, but the speed of that growth is also raising questions about how the sector will perform when the cycle eventually turns.

In this episode of the Rules of Investing podcast, Privity Credit Managing Partner Ryan Donnar explains why lending outside the banking system is far from a one-dimensional asset class. He also outlines where crowding is emerging, why structure matters more than yield, and the key questions investors...

Equity markets are in the middle of what Greg Dean calls “the world’s most uncomfortable rotation." In this episode, the founder of Langdon Equity Partners explains why AI may not be the real story, why high-margin businesses can be more vulnerable than they appear, and how he’s positioning his portfolio, including a 7.6% stake in L1 Group and a decision to reinvest in Johns Lyng after its take-private.

More than 70 companies reported this week and while the ASX 200 continues to push record highs, stock reactions remain ruthless.

In this episode, Ben Clark argues it’s been one of the strongest reporting seasons in years, with banks, miners and consumer names broadly beating expectations.

He explains why Woolworths’ resurgence caught the market off guard, why WiseTech’s AI defence matters more than its job cuts, and why Monadelphous and Ramsay may be turning points.

Clark also highlights heavy insider buying across tech, suggesting recent weakness may be overdone. Despite volatility, he sees moment...

With reporting season taking a positive turn, Chris Conway speaks with James Gerrish of Market Partners to get his hot take on a big week of reporting season, the key beats and misses, and what he's keeping an eye on for the rest of the season.

The first big week of reporting season was full of fireworks with some wild swings in some of the biggest companies on the ASX. Livewire's Chris Conway spoke with Henry Jennings from Marcus Today to discuss some of the important results and how investors reacted. 

Inflation is back at the centre of investor concerns. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, James Marlay is joined by outgoing Schroders CEO and CIO Simon Doyle to discuss why inflation has been so persistent, the assets he trusts most to protect real returns and the lessons from a long career in markets.

Markets delivered another strong year in 2025, extending an exceptional run for equities. The S&P 500 returned around 22.8% per annum over the past three years, roughly double the long-term average, while the ASX 200 delivered closer to 9.7% excluding dividends.

After a run like this, the key issue isn’t just where markets go next, but how investors set expectations. In this episode, James Marlay speaks Ben Clark from TMS Private Wealth and Charlie Viola from Viola Private Wealth to discuss realistic return expectations, the factors shaping asset allocation for 2026, and where they’re directing new capital.

Vishal Teckchandani asked two of Australia's leading ETF providers to put together a starting lineup of 11 ETFs built to win next year.  

Our two team captains were VanEck's Jamie Hannah and Global X ETFs' Marc Jocum, who each brought some of their big hitters (and more cricket metaphors than you can shake a stump at). 

Property experts Nerida Conisbee and Kiril Ruvinsky unpack what is driving the market and share their bold predictions for 2026.  

The Rules of Investing has wrapped for 2025. Thanks for tuning in; we’ve loved bringing you the conversations and insights that shaped markets this year.

We have a few bonus episodes coming out over the next couple of weeks and we’ll return to regular programming in 2026.

Enjoy the holiday break and all the best for the year ahead.

The ASX’s headline yield has slipped, but dividend income is still on offer if investors know where to look. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, IML’s Dr Michael O’Neill explains the dividend outlook, shares five ASX income picks, and outlines the mistake investors are making on rates and valuation risk.

*Correction - in the podcast Michael mistakenly said the yield on CSL is 4% when it is actually closer to 3% based on 1-year forward estimates from brokers. 

Dr David Allen from Plato Investment Management joins the show to unpack the systematic engine behind his fund’s 25 percent annual returns, how red flags reveal stocks set to fall, and the global themes he believes will drive markets over the next decade.

QVG Capital’s Chris Prunty joins the Rules of Investing to unpack what makes the great companies great. He shares the three traits found in Australia’s “Hall of Fame” stocks, reveals four small caps he believes could follow in their footsteps, and explains why QVG is backing Hub24 over Netwealth in the battle of the investment platforms.

Property moves in cycles, but real value lies in assets you can’t replace. Quay Global Investors’ Chris Bedingfield joins The Rules of Investing to explain why global REITs are trading at some of the biggest discounts in years, how ageing demographics and construction costs are reshaping real estate, and why patience remains the most underrated edge for investors.

________________________

Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense
This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense.
See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

It’s hard to know what markets will do next week, let alone next year. But what if you could identify companies that will be in a stronger position five years from now?

That’s the approach taken by Lev Margolin, founder of System Capital, a Melbourne-based long/short strategy that’s delivered more than 22% per annum since inception. In this episode of The Rules of Investing, we unpack the four-step framework that guides his process, where he’s finding opportunities in a hot market, and the businesses he believes are quietly building long-term strength.

________________________

Th...

Soul Patts CEO Todd Barlow joins The Rules of Investing to unpack the firm’s merger with Brickworks, why he’s buying at cyclical lows, and how he’s positioning for the future of energy. He also shares why liquidity and humility matter when markets are running hot.

________________________

Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense
This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense.
See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.

Markets are on fire and bubble talk is everywhere. So how should investors respond? In this episode, Magellan’s Arvid Streimann breaks down how to keep emotion out of your decisions, where he’s finding genuine value, and why he still believes in the power of brands and discipline.

________________________

Thanks to our Sponsor AlphaSense
This latest episode is brought to you by AlphaSense.
See what AlphaSense can do for your investment research—visit alpha-sense.com/livewire to get started.