The Real Investment Show (Full Show)

10 Episodes
Subscribe

By: Lance Roberts

Here reside the full, unadulterated audio files from the daily episodes of The Real Investment Show

When Financial Conditions Butt Heads W Borrowing Conditions (3/28/24)
Yesterday at 2:53 PM

Consumer confidence for stock prices remains high, despite mixed econonic data. Asset prices are rising faster than earnings, as optimism is extremely elevated. Equal Weight Index is underperforming the S&P; Bond prices are improving. If Fed Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t appreciate the difference between financial and borrowing conditions, we must assume most investors do not either. The current combination of easy financial conditions and tight borrowing conditions makes monetary policy difficult for the Fed to balance. Markets' advance for past 5-months begs the question, what's next? The risk is liquidity, which trips up banks, which trips of the ec...


Wall Street Wants To Save Your Retirement (3/27/24)
Last Wednesday at 3:00 PM

The Sentiment Index is hanging in, despite weakening regional surveys; economists see no recession in sight; bank reserves have been rising since October 2022. End of quarter rebalancing is generating some activity; after three-days of selling, market futures are positive this morning. Watch markets' steep angle of ascent; this is not sustainable, and correction will result sooner or later. Lance's unique inflation indicator... Markets still act like there's a flood of liquidity when there's not; markets are bifurcated; Houston real estate is insane. Can Wall Street save your retirement? Larry Fink thinks so, or at least wants you to think he...


Do Technical Measures & Valuations Really Matter
Last Tuesday at 4:37 PM

Baltimore Harbor is closed following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, hit by an out of control freighter. Weaker Regional Economic Surveys are in contrast to economists ratcheting-up growth expectations: No one is expecting a recession. Liquidity continues to boost bullish mood on Wall Street. The market has steadily climbed for past 5-months, creating record deviations; for now, no fear. Valuations are a measure of market psychology: "If everybody has bought, who is left to buy?" - Sam Stovall. When Technicals & Fundamentals align (the problem for most investors is that they're too slow). All elements are now present...


Are Market Bubbles A Function Of Psychology (3/25/24)
Last Monday at 3:41 PM

Stop the re-makes of '80's movies (Roadhouse)! Markets are going into 5th straight month of gains, remaining over-bought and trading in a very narrowly-defined trend channel. Money going into cryptocurrency (Memecoin) is indicative of late-cycle market speculative mood. The Coffee Maker saga continues; Market Bubble Psychology: What defines a market bubble. No two market bubbles are a like (w charts). The Fed's Dot Plots are worthless. How will the latest CR be funded? (More debt.) The mechanics of Social Security: more retirees earlier than expected. The things that always get paid when the government shuts down. The Baloney Bill...


Beware The Risks In Medicare Advantage Plans 2024
03/22/2024

What do the Three Stooges and the Fed's rate cut plans have in common? Risk appetites are on the rise with the Reddit IPO; what if inflation heats up and the Fed cannot cut rates? We're living in a government-driven economy. The challenges to withdrawal rates: Goal-harvesting. Goal shifting when retirement guardrails change. The Reddit IPO: Let the euphoria burn away. Risks to Medicare Advantage plans in 2024: Pre-existing clauses. We now have to deal with reinvestment risks as rates begin to fall; alternatives to getting away from high fixed-income earnings. SEG-1: The Three Rate Cut Stooges SEG-2: Retirement Goal-harvesting SEG-3...


How Will The Fed Rate Announcement Affect You (3/21/24)
03/21/2024

Markets respond to the Fed rate announcement, indicating at least three rate cuts this year, the first one coming as soon as June. Danny & Jonathan discuss Bond behaviors in the aftermath and investor response to the Fed rate announcement. Changes to the Child Tax Credit for 2024 (it's not a deduction, but a credit against the tax you owe); caveat: It's not indexed for inflation. What about using insurance products as an investing tool. Danny & Jonathan discuss the evolution of annuities and the best approach for determining their usefulness; how to determine how much to invest in an annuity; the value...


The Fed's New Form Of QE (3/19/24)
03/19/2024

There's a definite correlation between changes in stock buybacks and changes in market performance. With the closure of the stock buyback window by the blackout period, the effects will be interesting, especially with the prevailing attitudes in an over-extended market. We also notice Bitcoin is having an excellent correction. Lance and Michael discuss the Fed's Dot Plot and plans for Quantitative Easing: Which problem is easier to fix: Creating recession or inflation? Bank of Japan is ending it's policy of negative rates; what will be the effect on the US? What's the risk to the currency carry trade? Japan's demographic...


The Bull Market Trend Is Showing Some Cracks (3/18/24)
03/18/2024

During the week we were off for Spring Break, absolutely nothing changed: There is still no reason for the Fed to cut rates, and markets have finally re-aligned with the Fed's "Dot Plot." The share buyback blackout window is imposed starting on Friday, which has been an important factor in the markets' rally. Yet the bullish trend continues; watch Apple as it implements Goggle's Gemini AI into iPhone O/S. Markets continue in their complacency: Watch for a break of the 20-DMA, and for the algo's to kick-in; that will likely signal a market correction. Why Lance's coffee is cold...


Holding Long-term Bonds, but not to Maturity (3/8/24)
03/08/2024

Market Commentary: When will rate cuts hit? Biden's SOTU Address: Get ready for higher corporate taxes and an inflation fight. The Death of the 4% Rule? Not yet...the impact of lower interest rates on a viable distribution plan; how to create one as Recession looms. Dealing with durations: Holding long-term bonds, but not to maturity. Credit risk in bonds, and the importance of portfolio fluidity. Distribution planning and timing: What are appropriate benchmarks for portfolio performance? Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? (No.) Why we may be at the peak of rate hike cycle; proactivity is the key. Is bailing on market...


Liquidity Problems Are Closer Than You Think (3/7/24)
03/07/2024

Earnings growth are a function of economic growth; the US Economiy is de-coupled from the rest of the world, which economy is poor. The danger of deficits (that are funding our economic growth); SOTU Preview: "The economy is great." Market continues trading in a very tight range, but ever upward; this is when complacency sets in. The market is setting up for correction as the election draws nearer. Are we in a bubble or the market top; how to justify valuations. Cisco vs Nvidia: What is Nvidia worth now? The correlation between Bank reserves and the market. Powell says the...