The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary

The dynamics of the entire bracket, from Argentina's cakewalk to the interesting but different tests for Brazil and England, to Spain's good path and their fitness and tactical issues, a little model breakdown on Colombia, why the draw for African teams means we shouldn't read too much into the results, and more. 

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The World Cup continues and so we did more podcasting about it. 

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There's so much football and we are not happy about recognizing FIFA for it. But we've got what's wrong with Portugal (mostly Ronaldo), what's gone right for Ivory Coast (both players and coaching), Caley explains "Spuruguay," and we try to figure out Belgium. 

The Henry segment on Ronaldo: https://bsky.app/profile/dreyesceron.bsky.social/post/3moj2hwalms2e

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England won 4-2 over Croatia, dominated the xG, and generally looked like a real football team and a real World Cup contender. We have some slightly different takes on the first half, we get into questions about the PADDLIN' model and England, and of course Marouane Fellaini is discussed in some depth. 

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Mike has written a World Cup 2026 update to his classic Grantland piece about how to watch soccer. We discuss expected goals and how to use statistics well and poorly, we talk tactics and "flex back threes" and "five guys" and "rest defense" and how it all goes back to Pep Guardiola at Bayern Munich, and a little bit on the economics of the game and why that explains the coaches at the 2026 World Cup.

Read Goodman in 2026: https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/fifa-2026-world-cup-expected-goals-analytics-soccer-nerd/

And see Goodman from 2014: https://grantland.com/features/how-to-watch-the-world-cup-like-a-true-soccer-nerd/

A big win for the United States Men's National Team (USMNT, pronounced us-mnt) that validated belief in Mauricio Pochettino and the system he built for these players. We get into why the xG isn't quite as impressive as one might expect, the distinctive tactics you could see in action during the game, and just how far out over skis one might reasonably get after this match. 

For more on the Double Pivot's PADDLIN' World Cup model, see our YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/@DoublePivotPod

And the Expecting Goals model write-up (with live updating on t...

There is so much to get to this week, and this will be the first of many podcasts. We cover the Champions League final and why we did not have much of a problem with Arsenal's defensive approach, our plans for building a World Cup model and some of the models out there, and the big plans for where these podcasts are going to be published.

You can check out all the new... video content at: https://www.youtube.com/@DoublePivotPod

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Arsenal won the Premier League. They were also the best team in the Premier League by any analytical measure. But they were an unusual best team in the league, tactically and statistically, and we get into the peculiarities of the style that helped get the Gunners over the line. And we talk about what to expect from Arsenal and PSG in the Champions League final. 

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Chelsea will reportedly hire Xabi Alonso as their new manager for next season. We discuss how Chelsea got to this point, what they appear to have promised to Xabi and how this may or may not fit within Chelsea's current sports and business model. We also discuss Xabi's impressive managerial record and how his tactical approach might fit Chelsea's talent. 

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Has the moment finally come? With West Ham's disallowed goal in the closing seconds against Arsenal, the football discourse has returned to the question of the new corner kick tactic, which this podcast has somehow managed to name "the meat wall". We discuss what happened in the Arsenal match, but our goal is not to referee the moment over. Our focus is on why this seems likely to drive some degree of change in refereeing standards or even the rules of the game, why we think that an assertive response is necessary, and we walk through several possibilities for...

There is too much to podcast on and we are giving our subscribers a few bonus podcasts. Talking top four in Germany and Italy, recapping the Bayern - PSG second leg, and of course, all the Real Madrid drama.

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Manchester United have had an undoubtedly successful season, qualifying for the Champions League with underlying numbers perfectly in line with that position. But their results shifted markedly when they sacked Ruben Amorim and brought in Michael Carrick. Was this a major driver of their results or a mirage of finishing?

We discuss the real tactical changes under Carrick and how they show up in the numbers, why Kobbie Mainoo is the key player in this tactical shift, some notable differences in how the team approaches game state, and nonetheless how there is clearly just a ton of...

That was great. We discuss what made the game so exciting, why it was not a game with enormous expected goals totals, and what that tells us about the tactical approach and quality of play. Plus a Vincent Kompany apology form. 

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Somehow, here in 2026, a major title race clash in the Premier League lived up to the billing. We discuss how Arsenal's aggressive defensive approach created an open and exciting match for a long stretch, how City's period of possession dominance in the second half nonetheless also produced some of Arsenal's best scoring chances, and why the final ten minutes were so uninspiring compared to the rest of the match, and what it all tells us about who is likely to win the title. 

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There are just a few Premier League teams left in the Say Something Challenge and one of them is Arsenal. Why they're obviously the title favorites and why, seriously asking why are they playing football like this? Plus we fight our way through to having something to say about Burnley, Wolves, Brighton and Forest. 

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Caley wrote a newsletter about the origins of the set piece revolution, whether it's all Mikel Arteta's fault, how teams actually score off throw-ins, and why set pieces didn't take over the game earlier. This pod talks through the newsletter and some of our theories of how the set piece side of the game is interacting with larger open play tactical trends. 

Newsletter link: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-origins-of-the-set-piece-revolution

Also newsletter link: https://www.patreon.com/posts/origins-of-set-154510725?utm_medium=clipboard_copy&utm_source=copyLink&utm_campaign=postshare_creator&utm_content=join_link

We are joined by Sam Greenwood, high-stakes poker player and the writer and publisher of the Punt of the Day newsletter (to which Mike Goodman also contributes), to talk about poker and some questions we've been thinking about in sports and analytics and, well, publishing a podcast and recording a newsletter, about the world of optimizing and making money by clicking buttons on the computer. 

And because Sam is not only our Gambling Correspondent but also our Canadian Soccer Correspondent, we also turn to discussing the Canadian Men's National Team and the upcoming World Cup. 

Ch...

We take up a challenge from the discord to say something about even the least interesting teams. This podcast series will take us through the international break and begins with Fulham, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, Everton, Chelsea, Manchester United, and Leeds. 

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We are joined by Leif Weatherby, author of Language Machines: Cultural AI and the End of Remainder Humanism, to talk about artificial intelligence: what these new technologies do, but more than that how the fact of their existence can teach us more about how language works. And then we continue down a variety of paths talking sports analytics, optimization, and other topics.

https://www.upress.umn.edu/9781517919320/language-machines/

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Why the "Premier League disaster" narrative doesn't really make sense, plus some capsule summaries of the eight matches and why there was not that much to learn from the second legs. City-Real and Chelsea-PSG matches were over too early, Liverpool and Arsenal held serve at home, Bayern continued walking, why would anyone have expected more than this from Tottenham, and Barcelona-Newcastle was a fascinating watch with more to discuss but not necessarily representative of any larger dynamics. 

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There is so much football to discuss that this podcast could not contain it all and part two will be a subscriber episode. Here we get to the acknowledgement of Tottenham and a much more in-depth discussion of both PSG - Chelsea and Real Madrid - Man City, two matches that were much more similar than the scores and the ensuing narratives might suggest.

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We discuss the Round of 16 and why it seems like there are fewer and fewer new matchups in the Champions League knockouts and what might have to be done to address this.

And then, it's time for the return of Bible History Corner and, neither a review nor a summary of Jason Staples new book Paul and the Restoration of Israel but a preparation for it with extended background first on the history of Pauline Studies, and second on the history of Ancient Judaism, the Kingdoms of Israel, the Babylonian and Assyrian conquests, and tying all of...

There have been many dramatic results recently and the title race in the Premier League is indeed on between Arsenal and Manchester City. Nonetheless, the Double Pivot take remains the boring analytics answer that sometimes results happen without new or particularly interesting causes.

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With the Analytics Dead Zone fully underway in league football, we step back, take a question from the mailbag, and play "Squad Player or Star Player?" with James Garner, Joao Pedro and Gabriel Martinelli. 

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That's right. For the Winter Olympics we have a whole podcast dedicated to biathlon, joined by Jordan and RJ of the Penalty Loop Podcast to teach us all about how to watch biathlon like an expert, understanding the different events as well as the kinds of data and analysis used in biathlon, the players and teams to watch at the Olympics, and we did not skimp on the biathlon drama either. 

Check out the Penalty Loop Podcast: http://penaltyloop.com/penalty-loop-podcast/

And Biathlon Analytics: https://biathlonanalytics.com/

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The Double Pivot has introduced a term into the football vernacular and we talk through the set pieces story, Caley's study, and Jonathan Northcroft's column in the Times. And then we talk transfers including Marc Guehi, Antoine Semenyo and Ademola Lookman, which leads naturally into a discussion of private equity in football. 

The Northcroft column: https://www.thetimes.com/sport/football/article/premier-league-goalkeepers-set-pieces-ft66m8hn5

Set pieces study: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-set-piece-revolution

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We had a goofy final day of the Champions League and a few thoughts on Benfica and Real Madrid and the joy of whiparound soccer.

And then we get into Caley's new study on The Set Piece Revolution and the evidence that the game-changing insights here are mostly just chucking it into the mixer and crowding the keeper. We disagree(!) about some likely responses and we discuss what is likely to come next as set piece thought continues to spread.

Read the full study: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-set-piece-revolution

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With seven weeks of the Champions League League Phase complete, it is properly all to play for in the chase for qualification to the knockouts and especially in the chase for top eight and a bye into the round of 16. We go through the table and the impossibility of precisely gaming out all the scenarios.

Also! The Deloitte Money League data is out and it shows both the current financial dominance of the Premier League and the low rate of growth in inflation-adjusted football revenue since 2019. 

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The attempt to reform Real Madrid concludes, and it is reported that it probably was never really an attempt to reform Real Madrid in the first place. We discuss the distinct highs and lows of Xabi's tenure in Madrid, why we are (relatively!) down on the club from here, what we learned about Alonso as a manager, and what may be next for him. 

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Ruben Amorim actively got himself sacked by Manchester United. We talk about how we ended up here, why nothing about the process looks well-handled, what's next for United and why United's management structure makes it nearly impossible to predict what's next. 

On Ratcliffe and Ineos with Ben Walsh: https://www.buzzsprout.com/819853/episodes/16787734-united-ratcliffe-ineos-and-cycling-with-ben-walsh

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The long midtable in the Premier League is exceptionally competitive and just plain good. We talk about the underlying economic and game-structural reasons this has happened, and then we get into (most of) the 6th to 14th place clubs—Manchester United, Spurs, Palace, Brighton, Brentford, Newcastle and more—and their chances at making a run for the Champions League. 

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What's going on with Antoine Semenyo's transfer market and what sort of analytics are we using to evaluate him? Has Xabi Alonso saved his job at Real Madrid? And can the boys squeeze three topics into a single podcast? Listen to find out!

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Set pieces are making up an unprecedently large percentage of Premier League goal-scoring. At the same time, open play goal scoring is down significantly. We work through the data on tactical changes in the Premier League and European football since 2010 and the shockingly quick shift in goal-scoring this season. 

Is it something that the powers that be will have to intervene to fix in the rules of the game? As always, the Double Pivot answer is "maybe, but we would like a larger sample size."

Set piece goal scoring graph: https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.b...

Mohamed Salah decided to make some news this week. We walk through how and why his unload-the-clip statement on the club and the manager happened and what comes next for Liverpool, for the front office and for the manager and players, who still need to figure out a set of tactics that get the most out of their stars, with or without Salah. 

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There has been a lawsuit filed against Tony Bloom and his sports gambling syndicate alleging, well, the lawsuit is actually just asking for money. But it is also about how sports gambling syndicates work and specifically how the one owned and run by the owner of Brighton works, and we wanted to talk about that and about Premier League gambling policy. 

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A hot start on points masked underlying problems, but a blowout loss to Arsenal and what should have been a blowout loss to Chelsea have brought focus back to what seems to be wrong at Tottenham. We break it down. 

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It's a huge, wild, and complex story. Referees suspended, players implicated, the third and fourth divisions suspended, criminal investigations into Super Lig clubs and referees. We break down what's going on in Turkey and we ask, is this just the first open reporting of risks to sporting competition that are present across professional football and global sports?

Wikipedia and links for the Turkish football story: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Turkish_football_betting_scandal

Ankaraspor - Nazillispor: https://en.haberler.com/it-had-been-talked-about-for-days-here-is-the-2157354/

Cleveland Guardians scandal: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/emmanuel-clase-arrested-pleads-not-guilty/

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City won 3-0. The non-penalty xG in the match was dead even. What does that mean, what are the statistics telling us about this match and about Man City and Liverpool?

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We kick off the new Double Pivot Ballon d'Or tracker podcast series with a discussion of why we're going to be doing this, tracking both the players who we think will deserve the award and who is more or less likely to win in, and how we think about those problems. And of course we check in on the obvious leaders right now -- Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane -- as well as some players we're watching to see if they can get into consideration. 

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We talk to Bill Connelly, ESPN staff writer and author of the book Forward Progress, about the American sport that we all agree has the most uncanny resemblance to European and global soccer, college football. We talk NILs and conferences and the transfer portal, and we talk the super league and the socio model and the Bundesliga. What both college football and European soccer eventually become are two of the most fascinating questions in sports, and understanding one can help you think about the other, too. We even talk a little bit about analytics.

Forward Progress: https...