Alpha Exchange

Private equity has become an increasingly important part of institutional portfolios. Investors are attracted to its long-term return potential, the ability to influence portfolio companies and, perhaps less explicitly, the relatively smooth performance that comes from periodic rather than daily valuations. But what exactly are investors being compensated for? And how much of private equity's return profile can be recreated in public markets?

My guest today is Randy Cohen, Professor of Finance and Entrepreneurship at Harvard Business School and Co-Founder of PEO Partners. Randy has spent much of his academic career studying asset pricing, investment m...

Chris Hentemann launched 400 Capital Management in October of 2008, in the teeth of the Global Financial Crisis, with roughly $2.5 million of friends, family and mostly his own capital. Today, 400 Capital manages approximately $8 billion, focused on asset-based and securitized credit.

We begin with Chris’s early career at First Boston, Salomon Brothers and Bank of America, where he developed expertise across mortgages and structured products. Chris reflects on the extraordinary expansion of bank balance sheets leading into the GFC and why the combination of leverage, insufficient risk capital and misaligned incentives ultimately proved unsustainable.

Th...

My guest today on the Alpha Exchange is the Convexity Maven, Harley Bassman. Harley joins me at a particularly interesting moment for markets, with long-end Treasury yields backing up, rate volatility elevated and the traditional relationship between stocks and bonds looking increasingly unsettled.

We begin with Harley’s argument that the rise in long-term yields is less an inflation story than a trust story. With large fiscal deficits, growing interest expense and an enormous amount of Treasury supply coming to market, he sees investors demanding greater compensation to own long-duration government debt. Add substantial borrowing fro...

With one of the largest repricings in fixed income in decades underway, Brij joins me for a wide-ranging conversation on monetary policy, inflation, the wealth effect and where he sees opportunity across global bond markets.

We begin with a provocative question: what if interest rates have become more effective at influencing financial markets than the real economy? Here, Brij argues that the traditional relationship between rates and business investment has weakened considerably. Ultra-low and negative real rates did not necessarily generate the productive investment policymakers hoped for. Instead, they helped encourage greater financialization, from household leverage and...

It was a pleasure to welcome Amanda Lynam, Chief Credit Strategist in Global Investment Research at Goldman Sachs, back to the podcast. Nearly three years after our first conversation, much has changed!  With the extraordinary capital expenditure cycle underway in artificial intelligence, there is no shortage of questions about how the corporate credit market will finance it and what the growing supply of debt means for investors.

We begin with Amanda’s assessment of the broader credit landscape. She describes a market supported by resilient economic growth, generally solid corporate fundamentals, and powerful demand from yiel...

Kimberly Gallant, the Global Head of QIS Structuring at CIBC, has spent nearly two decades working across quantitative investment strategies, derivatives and structuring. Our conversation is a deep dive into the evolution of QIS and the economic rationale behind these increasingly important systematic investment strategies.

We begin by exploring the origins of QIS and how ideas from academia, pension funds, commodity markets and bank trading desks ultimately converged into a cross-asset business focused on generating alternative sources of return. Kimberly explains that at its core, QIS is about identifying persistent factors, facilitating risk transfer between m...

In this discussion, I make the case for tail hedging. I communicate two main ideas. First, I lay out the concept of the “fourth type of risk off”, an episode that features instability in the back end of the US bond market. As I’ve said, nothing can really work in markets if the Treasury market does not. Count me as worried that the US fiscal issues are incredibly difficult to solve – we wouldn’t be here otherwise – and that the timeline to address them has shortened.

Second, I argue that the US economy and market are far too expo...

I really enjoyed hosting this Alpha Exchange discussion with Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO for the Americas and Global Head of Equities at UBS Global Wealth Management. Ulrike has had a long career in markets, having spent nearly 25 years at Tudor Investment Corporation working across quantitative macro and global tactical asset allocation before joining UBS.

We begin with Ulrike’s academic background in economics, political science and financial econometrics and the path that ultimately brought her from academia to Tudor. She reflects on the culture created by Paul Tudor Jones and several lessons that stayed with her throughout her ca...

The IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report is a twice yearly, must read. Leading the excellent research done here is Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the IMF. It was a pleasure to welcome Tobias to the podcast to explore the IMF’s financial stability framework, vulnerabilities in global markets, and the evolving risks shaping the financial system.

We begin with Tobias’ role and the evolution of the GFSR, which combines market intelligence, analytical research, and a framework for assessing financial vulnerabilities. He explains how the report has shifted alongs...

It was a pleasure to welcome Jon Havice, Founder and CIO of DGV Solutions, back to the Alpha Exchange. Our conversation explores systematic investing, volatility risk premia, and portfolio construction for institutional investors.

We begin with Jon's path from trading currency options and derivatives at O'Connor and UBS through hedge fund management and investment consulting before founding DGV Solutions. He reflects on advising endowments, foundations, and healthcare systems, and explains how those experiences shaped a philosophy centered on delivering liquid, systematic investment strategies designed to help institutions pursue long-term objectives while managing downside risk.

It's been a busy year for the Alpha Exchange podcast — 25 episodes so far and an exciting fall schedule ahead. Today I'm going solo, assessing a backdrop for market risk that has proven quite unique this year. In the discussion that follows, I want to share what's on my mind with respect to the prices we all stare at every day, and tie together three crosscurrents that look separate on the surface but are really one story. These themes are low correlation, spot up vol up dynamics, and the cheapness of market-based insurance.

First, correlation. Realized and...

It was a pleasure to welcome Alec Litowitz, the Founder of Magnetar Capital and QStar Capital, to the Alpha Exchange. Central to our discussion is an exploration of the ideas in Alec’s new book, The Adaptability Quotient. Here, he draws on more than thirty years of investing across multiple market regimes.

We begin with Alec’s three decades in financial markets, from his early years at Citadel through the founding of Magnetar. Looking back across multiple market cycles, he argues that long-term investing success is driven by more than intelligence alone. Instead, he introduces the concept of Ad...

It was a pleasure to host an Alpha Exchange discussion with Franklin Parlamis, the Founder and CIO of Aequim Alternative Investments.

Franklin brings a distinctive perspective shaped by two decades in capital structure and convertible bond arbitrage. His career spans the Russian debt restructuring of 1998—where he witnessed firsthand how broken correlations can unwind hedges—through the convertible market collapse of 2008, when leverage amplified systemic stress and "the machine broke."

Our conversation explores how convertibles sit at the nexus of multiple asset classes: rates, rate volatility, credit, credit volatility, equities, and stock lending. When any of t...

It was a pleasure to welcome David Silber, Head of Institutional Equity Derivatives at Citadel Securities, to the Alpha Exchange to discuss the evolution of listed options markets, institutional liquidity, and the technology reshaping modern derivatives trading.

We begin with Dave’s early career on the floor of the Chicago Board Options Exchange during the transition to multi-listed options, where market making, open outcry, and physical proximity to order flow defined liquidity provision. He reflects on the evolution of the options market from paper tickets and fractional pricing to today's electronic ecosystem, highlighting how advances in technology ha...

What causes significant risk-off events? Can they be anticipated to any degree? Understanding the how and why of these episodes is critical for investors seeking to avoid drawdowns.

In this short podcast, I share how I think about episodes of risk-off, with particular attention to the interaction between stock and bond prices — before, during, and after market vol events.

I outline three type of risk-off: the classic, the taper, and the liquidation, and provide examples of each. I also propose a fourth, in which the US Treasury market is itself the source of global instability. 

Aaron Brown is a Wall Street quant, risk manager, and trader. He’s also a professor and the author of the recent book Wrong Number—on probability, reasoning, and the role of skepticism in markets and beyond.

We begin with Aaron’s unconventional path into finance, from identifying betting opportunities in horse racing and playing professional poker to studying under pioneers including Fischer Black before spending decades on Wall Street.

The conversation explores how concepts from poker—including bankroll management, Kelly sizing, and separating risk management from individual decisions—translate into portfolio co...

David Dredge, Founder and CIO of Convex Strategies, has spent his career in derivatives markets, on the long side of optionality and seeking value in convexity. It was great to learn more about the role he plays in fortifying client portfolios with insurance and to have him reflect on how periods of market stress expose limitations in traditional risk methodologies.

Our conversation focuses on volatility supply and the structural forces that generate it. Here, David discusses the growth of structured products across equities, rates, and FX markets, and explains how regulatory frameworks, accounting treatment, and yield-seeking behavior...

It was a pleasure to host a discussion with Samir Patel, Global Head of Global Market Sales at Nomura Securities International, on leadership, client strategy, and the evolution of institutional markets businesses in an environment defined by constant change.

The conversation emphasizes how institutional client relationships have evolved over time. Samir explains why clients increasingly seek counterparties with differentiated strengths rather than broad-based coverage across every product area. He discusses how Nomura has focused on areas where the firm can leverage structural advantages, including solutions-oriented financing and strategies tied to concentrated equity positions.

It was a pleasure to welcome Colin Lancaster, Global Co-Head of Discretionary Macro and Fixed Income at Schonfeld Strategic Advisors, back to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion focuses on the evolution of the multi-manager model, portfolio construction, and the challenges of navigating today’s macro environment.

Colin discusses the importance of systems, data, and risk infrastructure, and why scale has increasingly become a competitive advantage. We explore how firms differentiate themselves through strategy mix, geographic focus, and organizational culture, even as the industry has converged around a similar set of core investment disciplines.

It was a pleasure to host a discussion with Ronnie Wexler, Global Head of Equities Distribution at Barclays, and solicit his insights on change – in markets, in client relationships and in the growing role of technology across the financial ecosystem.

We begin with Ronnie’s early years at Goldman Sachs during the final stages of the technology bubble and the sharp market reversal that followed. He reflects on how periods of market stress, from the post-dot-com bear market to the GFC, have shaped his perspective on risk and the importance of being adaptable in markets that are cons...

I was excited to host this conversation with Rob Flatley, Founder and CEO of TS Imagine, on prediction markets, AI-driven workflows, and the structural changes reshaping financial market infrastructure.

We begin with Rob’s path from software engineering into capital markets, including leadership roles at Bank of America and Deutsche Bank during the rise of electronic trading and through the Global Financial Crisis. That experience informs a broader perspective on how market infrastructure evolves during periods of stress and technological transition.

The conversation then turns to artificial intelligence and the distinction betw...

It was a pleasure to host a conversation with Hari Krishnan, Head of Volatility Strategies at SCT Capital, on the changing nature of volatility markets, portfolio hedging, and why commodities may offer increasingly valuable diversification in today’s environment.

Hari reflects on his book Second Leg Down, which explores practical approaches to tail-risk hedging and the cyclical nature of volatility. He discusses how investors often ignore protection in calm periods, only to rush toward hedges after markets have already repriced risk. That dynamic leads to a broader conversation on planning, budgeting, and approaching hedging as an ongoing po...

It was a pleasure to welcome Rob Kaplan, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs, and former President of the Dallas Fed, to the Alpha Exchange.

We begin with Rob’s reflections on his time at the helm of the Dallas Fed from 2015 to 2021, a period spanning rate liftoff, fiscal stimulus, and the COVID crisis. He outlines how his perspective as a business practitioner led him to focus on structural forces—demographics, globalization, and technology—rather than relying solely on cyclical data and economic models.

We then turn to the current environment, where the Fed...

It was a pleasure to welcome Wayne Dahl, Co-Portfolio Manager of Global Credit Strategy at Oaktree Capital Management, to the Alpa Exchange.

We begin with Wayne’s path through convertible arbitrage, structured credit, and multi-asset investing, and how that foundation informs a framework centered on understanding sensitivities across rates, credit, and equity exposures. Convertible arbitrage, in particular, serves as an entry point into managing multiple dimensions of risk simultaneously, reinforcing a core principle: avoiding large losses is essential to long-term compounding.

We explore Oaktree’s consistent investment philosophy—one that prioritizes credit f...

Welcome to Episode 250 of the Alpha Exchange. To celebrate the milestone, I asked my dear friend, Jon Kalikow, to host the conversation, switching seats and having me as the guest.

I launched the podcast in 2018 with a simple idea: to create space for long-form conversations that explore how market practitioners think about risk. Rather than focusing on predictions, the goal has always been to understand frameworks—how investors process information, respond to uncertainty, evolve through cycles.

In this episode, we also explore some of my own thinking on risk. Here, I outline a simple framework bu...

The “risk-free” rate figures prominently in how we’ve all been taught the foundations of finance. To price a security, start with the asset that is the safest and soundest and then add compensation for bearing uncertainty. It has always been self-evident that the global risk-free benchmark was the Treasury market. Deep, liquid and viewed as default free, US government bonds have been the recipient of capital during times of stress.

And the reason is that the US has long been viewed as not just the world’s strongest economy but also a stabilizing force in global...

Kris Abdelmessih, author of the MoonTower Substack and founder of the options analytics firm MoonTower.ai., has spent years thinking about option pricing, volatility regimes, and the mental math traders use to translate volatility into price. In this context, it was great to welcome him back to the Alpha Exchange to explore his thought process.

We begin with developments in commodity markets, particularly crude oil, and silver, where geopolitical tension and speculative flows have led to sharp changes in volatility surfaces. Kris explains how option skew in underlyings like oil can reprice rapidly during shock events, leading...

As Chairman and CEO, Zach Buchwald leads Russell Investments, a firm overseeing $370bln in client assets and celebrating its 90th anniversary in providing portfolio management services to institutions and individuals.

Zach details the open-architecture model utilized at Russell, explaining how portfolios are constructed by combining best-of-breed managers and strategies across asset classes. He shares how these portfolios are managed through an outsourced chief investment officer framework, providing institutions with integrated portfolio construction, manager selection, and risk management.

A central theme in our discussion is retirement, a large focus at Russell on behalf of its client...

Amidst these very uncertain times in the economy, geopolitics, and asset prices, it was excellent to welcome Alberto Gallo, founder and CIO of Andromeda Capital Management, back to the Alpha Exchange.

Our conversation first considers the long arc of post-crisis monetary policy. Here, Alberto argues that extended quantitative easing, while stabilizing in the short run, carried structural side effects over time—capital misallocation, corporate consolidation, and widening inequality. He notes that central bank balance sheets remain large and that markets today send mixed signals: stability in rates and credit alongside strength in precious metals.

We th...

With early exposure to Paul Tudor Jones and then stints on the sell-side in credit research, Michael Contopoulos is now Deputy CIO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, a macro-oriented asset manager overseeing roughly $20 billion across long-only portfolios. Our discussion centers on portfolio construction in an era of extreme equity concentration and shifting global leadership.

On the equity side, the firm is under-weight the most concentrated segments of U.S. equities and overweight international markets, citing valuation gaps, earnings acceleration abroad, and under-ownership by investors.

Using his background in quantitative credit strategy and a Merton framework for...

It was a pleasure to welcome Louis Gave, the Founding Partner and CEO of Gavekal, back to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion centers on what he describes as one of the most consequential and underappreciated macro developments today: the mispricing—and now the policy shift—of the Chinese renminbi. Louis is quite bullish on China.

Louis argues that for much of the past decade, China has acted as a powerful deflationary force on the global economy. In response to US trade restrictions, Chinese policymakers redirected domestic savings away from real estate and toward industrial capacity. This dual dyna...

It is busy time, to say the least, for Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO. Today’s markets are grappling with vast uncertainties…in US fiscal policy, in Fed independence and leadership, in geopolitics, and in global trade. Libby is charged with helping both the clients and risk-takers of PIMCO better understand the implications of policy that is changing rapidly.

Through her conversations with institutional, retail, and international clients, she outlines how uncertainty around US policy has become a central driver of investor concern early in 2026. Our discussion highlights how recent geopolitical developments — including tensions with E...

Five years ago, on January 27th, 2021, the frenzied buying and speculation in Gamestop hit its apex. In this short podcast, I look back on one of the more fascinating, and dare I say, dangerous, risk events in modern day markets. The stock was subject to an outright speculative attack. But not the kind most CEOs complain about. This was not Soros taking down the British pound in 1992. This was a retail army of Reddit bandits whose buying power was nothing individually, but everything collectively. This was an attack not by a short seller, but against one. We learn a...

It was a pleasure to welcome Alex Urdea, Founder and CIO of Deep Ocean Partners to the Alpha Exchange. Alex traces his career from credit derivatives trading at a large bank to a risk management function at a hedge fund focused on distressed investing to ultimately building an asset-backed private credit platform focused on smaller, less trafficked segments of the lending universe. The conversation centers on how regulatory changes following the Global Financial Crisis, prolonged periods of low interest rates, and shifting investor preferences have reshaped where and how credit risk is priced.

Alex describes h...

Today’s market landscape is defined by extremes that challenge conventional portfolio construction. A small group of mega-cap stocks now represents an unprecedented share of index weight, profit generation, and capital spending, raising important questions about valuation, diversification, and risk concentration.

With this in mind, it was great to have Andrew Lapthorne, Global Head of Quantitative Research at Société Générale, back on the Alpha Exchange. Drawing on long-run valuation distributions and profitability data, Andrew examines whether today’s market qualifies as a valuation bubble, not through narratives, but through measurable historical comparisons. His analy...

As I share my closing thoughts on 2025, I want to look back with an eye towards pointing out this year’s unique characteristics from a market risk perspective. I start this exercise by highlighting what I consider to be 2025’s three most interesting days from a vol and risk perspective: 1) the April 7th roller-coaster in the VIX  2) the September 10th surge in ORCL and  3) the October 21st melt-down in the GLD. Each of these helps us better understand some of the forces at work in today’s market. Next, I explore two important themes and their implications. First, the “stock up...

It was a pleasure to welcome Ian Harnett, co-founder and Chief Investment Strategist at Absolute Strategy Research, to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion explores how long periods of low volatility and abundant liquidity can quietly allow systemic risks to accumulate outside the traditional banking system.

Drawing on lessons from the Global Financial Crisis, Ian explains why today’s financial system—now dominated by non-banks rather than banks—requires a different risk framework.  While post-GFC regulation focused on large banks and insurers, much of the system’s leverage and liquidity transformation has migrated toward pension funds, private eq...

Kumaran Vijayakumar has spent his career in the equity derivatives market, first as an exotics trader and later in running large risk-taking desks in listed and OTC options. Now, the CEO of DataDock Solutions, a firm he Co-Founded in 2018, Kumaran and his team are developing analytical tools that allow sell-side flow desks to better understand the risks they take and clients they take it for. Our discussion explores the challenges inherent in evaluating client flow, and how data-centric infrastructure has changed the way risk is assessed.

With the premise that “what you can measure you can...

Risk generally falls into 4 categories, monetary (Central Banks), economic (growth and profits), financial (leverage, carry and correlation) and finally, geopolitical. This last category is non-market, market risk.  And in this context, it was a pleasure to welcome Mark Rosenberg, Founder of GeoQuant and adjunct professor at UC Berkeley to the Alpha Exchange for a discussion centered on political risk as a measurable market variable.

Mark’s work evaluates how governance, social instability, institutional stress, and security dynamics influence asset pricing. Tracing his path from academia to his time at Eurasia Group, he describes the gap that existed in...

Todd Rapp got his career started in equity options at Goldman Sachs in the late 1990’s, a wild time in which a bubble inflated and burst and provided critical lessons in both gamma and vega risk in the process. Now the CEO of the Fortress Multi-Manager Group, Todd leans heavily on his derivatives DNA in the areas of sourcing uncorrelated return streams, portfolio construction and both measuring and managing risk. Early training has shaped his long-term view that markets express probability through delta, option curvature, and distribution structure rather than through static price movements.

Our conversation connects ea...