In Moscow's Shadows
Russia, behind the headlines as well as in the shadows. This podcast is the audio counterpart to Mark Galeotti's blog of the same name, a place where "one of the most informed and provocative voices on modern Russia", can talk about Russia historical and (more often) contemporary, discuss new books and research, and sometimes talk to other Russia-watchers. If you'd like to keep the podcast coming and generally support my work, or want to ask questions or suggest topics for me to cover, do please contribute to my Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/InMoscowsShadowsThe podcast's corporate partner and sponsor...
In Moscow's Shadows 240: Frankenstein's Putinism
Or, 'Team Russia and the Undead Ideology Project'Â
Can you create an ideology that is custom-engineered, poll-driven, focus grouped, workshopped and marketed? The Presidential Administration's Alexander Kharichev is certainly trying, suggesting the Kremlin's concerns about the future.
I also discuss Marlene Laruelle's excellent book Ideology and Meaning-Making under the Putin Regime (Stanford UP 2025), and the link to Jeremy Morris's comments on it is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
In Moscow's Shadows 239: Wars Foreign and Domestic
How does the Iran war look to Russia, at once a potential morass for the USA (and Europe) and a case study, many in policy circles feel, on why not to trust Washington. It's also a laboratory for what one Russian military theorist called "non-contact war," and may help shape Moscow's notions of the future of conflict.
Then it’s home to Moscow’s underworld, where a fragile peace holds between Shakro Molodoi and Badri Kutaissky, while younger “thieves‑in‑law” turn old grudges into proxy fights. One death, one arrest, or a shock from Chechnya could snap the sta...
In Moscow's Shadows 238: Bangers and Mish
First, as the USA, Israel and Iran trade drone and missile strikes, how the war may play out for Russia: my sense is that on balance it will give Moscow more opportunities than headaches.Â
Then, from bangers to Mish: decoding Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s annual report to the State Duma. Think of a head butler in a grand house: no say in the party upstairs, every burden downstairs. The technocrats may plan to edge Russia from “gas station” to “supermarket,” but is this viable?
The Sunday Times article I mention is here, Ben Aris's BNE Intellinew...
In Moscow's Shadows 237: How A 1552 Siege Explains A 2022 Invasion
A frozen river swallows cannons in 1550; a traffic jam of armour stalls outside Kyiv in 2022. Different centuries, same lesson: wars are won by planning, logistics, and the courage to listen to people who know what they’re doing. Ivan the Terrible took Kazan in 1552, learning crucial lessons of warfare and statecraft that Putin the Not So Great neglected when invading Ukraine in 2022.
Spinning off my new book, Siege of Kazan 1552: Ivan the Terrible breaks the Kazan khanate (Osprey), I look at how that campaign showed the power of five disciplines: promote competence, raise the right ar...
In Moscow's Shadows 236: What Is Russia?
In the first half, I look at the latest news about Navalny's death, what a change in the composition of the Russian negotiation team in Geneva may mean, and why looking for a dubious Russian connection in the Epstein case risks missing the real scandal: how powerful people and institutions tolerated what they knew.
Then, to answer the larger question—what kind of country is Russia?—I spin off two books: a long view of survey data that charts a hybrid regime’s rise and fracture after 2014, and a cultural study that sees Russia as fluid, formed by glo...
In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: Rebel Russia
A mini-episode that paying Patrons heard as part of their Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses. Forget the cliché that Russians accept power without protest, I sit down with author and analyst Anna Arutunyan to unpack a more complicated truth from her book Rebel Russia: Russia’s past is full of uprisings and dissent, yet weak social solidarity keeps those bursts of courage from becoming lasting institutions. When no stable forums exist for bargaining between citizens and the state, pressure builds, revolutions erupt, and the reset button gets slammed—often wiping out the very spaces needed for democracy to grow...
In Moscow's Shadows 235: From a GRU to a Kill
Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, second in command of Russian military intelligence (technically, GU; colloquially, still GRU) is gunned down in Moscow. Whodunnit, whydunnit, and what will it mean? Of course, I don't know, but I have a stab at these questions.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting...
In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: How Putin Is Protected
A mini-episode that paying Patrons heard as part of their Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses, opening the gates on Vladimir Putin’s personal security. From rooftop snipers and sealed manholes to an armoured Aurus limo and a “ghost train” that slips through the rail network without a schedule, the machinery is vast, expensive, and designed to smother threats before they form.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog...
In Moscow's Shadows 234: PACE’s Picks, Ukraine’s Grid, Russia’s Corruption
Four stories with counter-intuitive implications:
PACE’s new platform for dialogue with “Russian democratic forces” beg the question of whether a handpicked roster, quota politics, and delegates closely tied to Ukrainian advocacy strengthen dialogue with Russians or hand the Kremlin an easy propaganda win.Â
Does the much-hyped energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine offer little repair time but plenty of room for Moscow to refill missile stocks and plan salvos designed to overwhelm air defences?
A new report on corruption in the regions demonstrates that, despite everything, there is still a willingness in Russia...
In Moscow's Shadows 233: News, from Abu Dhabi to Kamchatka; and Chechnya After Kadyrov
First, a look at some of the news as this year starts hard and bizarre: trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi (with military intelligence chiefs to the fore), the Greenland crisis and the perils of Trump's Board of Peace for a Russia that we might consider a 'middle power.' Then, once-in-a-generation blizzards in Kamchatka as a test of state capacity and Putin's engagement.
With Kadyrov reportedly seriously ill (really, this time, we think), what prospects for this satrapy? His sons are too young, too raw, and too notorious. The likely pathways run through the Benoi clan: a...
In Moscow's Shadows 232: the Black Priest vs the Death Cult
A tabloid brands Zelensky’s Christmas address a “black mass,” complete with glassy eyes, hidden codes, and a trance to “hack the noosphere” to cast a death curse on Putin. Huh? What? Why are occult narratives creeping from the fringe into Russia’s mainstream? And, for that matter, why are notions such that Russia is now in the grip of a "nihilistic death cult" also warping Western thinking? A trip deep down into a bizarre rabbit-hole.
The Moskovsky Komsomolets article I discuss is here.
Earlier episodes of this podcast touching on some of these issues are In Mo...
In Moscow's Shadows 231: Real Guarantees for Ukraine
The talk of a military force provided by the 'Coalition of the Willing' to help secure Ukraine after a peace is a non-starter, not least as it would preclude any peace deal. But it's easy to snipe from the sidelines, so this episode I stick my neck out: what do I think would represent a credible security guarantee for Ukraine that would also permit a peace? Buckle in, it's a long and wonkish episode, but in many ways that's the point: deterrence works when credibility beats rhetoric, and no silver bullets here, just a web of bilateral and trilateral...
In Moscow's Shadows 230: The Rise and Fall of a Chechen Gang
Before the self-indulgence of a deep-dive into the rise and fall of the Chechen Lazanskaya Brigada in Moscow -- and why there are some worrying implications for the coming situation in Russia and Europe -- I look at recent developments: the appointment of Budanov as Zelensky's new chief of staff, the US operation in Venezuela, and recent drone strikes...
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In...
In Moscow's Shadows 229: Heroes and Villains
To end the year, instead of the grand sweep of geopolitics, let's look at a collection of people making the news, sometimes whether they like it or not.
(PS: Listened to JD Vance at the Moscow Security Conference? A Freudian slip there -- of course, I meant Munich Security Conference!)
And of course, as befits the last episode of the year, a little round up and thanks to everyone listening -- and doubly so, to my paying Patrons.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative...
In Moscow's Shadows 228: Blood & Soil versus Bread & Butter
Putin's latest marathon press conference/call-in show Itogi Goda ('Results of the Year'), once Direct Line, has become an annual ritual. 4.5 hours, 3M submitted questions, but what can we learn? Intransigence over Ukraine, attempts to talk up the economy, but a marked disconnect with a population that feels its social contract has been broken... and a president who felt just a little less grounded and focused than in the past.Â
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar s...
In Moscow's Shadows 227: It's War! (within the emigre opposition, at least)
A demilitarised zone that invites armoured cars. A referendum that can’t be fairly run. A €210 billion pot that solves today’s bills but complicates tomorrow’s peace.Â
We start with shuttle diplomacy and the hard edges of a potential DMZ in Donetsk. On paper it pauses the fight; in practice Rosgvardiya blurs policing and militarisation, turning “demilitarised” into a loophole big enough for armour. We then map the constitutional and moral traps around wartime elections or referendums, where occupied voters, blocked monitors and legal grey zones collide with Kyiv’s need to navigate Washington without capitulating.
From t...
In Moscow's Shadows 226: Monsters in the Woods
There's not all that much to say about the Ukraine peace negotiations as delegations head to the USA and Russia, but I cover a few issues, from Trump's 'businessified' approach to geopolitics to the departures of both Andrii Yermak and Dmitri Kozak.
In the second half, I use Russian folklore, and the arrays of terrifying threats in the deep woods and the potentially terrifying spirits of hearth and home as a parable for Russian strategic culture. Honestly.
The forthcoming book I mention is Sophie Pinkham's The Oak and the Larch
The...
In Moscow's Shadows 225: A Chance for Peace in Ukraine?
In the first half of the podcast, I look at the proposed Ukraine peace deal, which is only a foundation for proper negotiations, especially in terms of what it is not.
In the second, I spin off Susanna Rabow-Edling's excellent book, The First Russian Revolution. The Decembrist Revolt of 1825 (Reaktion Books) to consider some of the modern resonances.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my bl...
In Moscow's Shadows 224: In Helsinki's (and Kyiv's) Shadows
From where's Lavrov to whether it's time for Europe to speak to Putin directly, some questions with wider significance raised during my recent hectic trip to Finland. And, in the second half, how should we think about the likely fall of Pokrovsk and what to make of Ukraine's Midas Case corruption scandal -- and how it's being covered in Russia?
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, ...
In Moscow's Shadows 223: After Putin, Who... or What?
We need to talk about post-Putin. It's fruitless at this point to try and come up with names of potential successors -- but maybe we can identify potential archetypes, the kinds of people who might succeed him, depending on the perceived needs of the day.
The Julian Waller article I mention is here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and...
In Moscow's Shadows 222: Are We Seeing A New Putin?
The forthcoming release of the updated version of my WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN gives me an excuse to consider whether and how Putin has changed since I originally wrote the book in 2018. My conclusion: not so much a different Putin as 'Putin squared.'
In the second half, I discuss and riff off Russia’s Turkish Wars. The Tsarist Army and the Balkan Peoples in the Nineteenth Century by Victor Taki, published by University of Toronto Press.
Sign-up for the Wikistrat webinar I mentioned on 5 November is here.
The Mo...
In Moscow's Shadows 221: Is the Sun Rising over Russo-Japanese Relations?
The new Japanese PM wants to conclude a long-delayed peace treaty with Russia - but that will mean selling a thorny territorial dispute. Will Moscow show the cunning and vision to try and undermine Japanese support for Ukraine -- indeed, can it, while keeping China and North Korea happy?
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting...
In Moscow's Shadows 220: Power Politics in the FSB and a new 'Most Dangerous Man in Russia'?
Time to look at the spooks again. It seems that the FSB's Military Counterintelligence Department (in other words, the anti-coup squad) may be getting a new head. What does this mean for the internal struggles to replace the ailing current director, Bortnikov? Is 'crown prince' Sergei Korolev finally going to take his place? And what might this mean?
My previous look at Korolev was in In Moscow's Shadows 171: The invisible and invidious Sergei Korolev, perhaps the next head of the FSB (20 Oct. 2024) and I branded Nikolai Patrushev 'the most dangerous man in Russia' way, way...
In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai
Putin's 4-hour keynote and Q&A at Valdai gives us at least some insight into his thinking and his assumptions, but the interesting thing is that the key themes are strangely also reflected in the thinking of some of his fiercest critics, as everyone oversimplifies a complex world.Â
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons a...
In Moscow's Shadows 218: Putin, the Blunderer-in-Chief?
We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet it's hard to argue that this position, mired in Ukraine, sanctioned and facing recession, is where he wanted to be. Maybe, then, a better way of trying to analyse his regime and Late Putinism's prospects is through his blunders...
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one...
In Moscow's Shadows 217: MiGs in Estonian skies, exercises on Poland's borders - a threat to Europe?
MiGs in Estonian airspace, military exercises in Belarus, talk of the next war against NATO being prepared. Are we under threat? Well, maybe that’s up to us. I look at recent events, and Carlo Masala's new book 'If Russia Wins' to wonder if the West risks encouraging Russian pressure and undermining its own position.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and be...
In Moscow's Shadows 216: What Security Guarantees for Ukraine Might Work?
Zelensky said on Friday that "the basic document on security guarantees for Ukraine, and therefore for the whole of our Europe, is practically ready." I suspect this may be a stretch, but it is worth considering what might and might not work. Crucially, any guarantees must be credible, meaningful and sustainable, if they are to reassure Kyiv and deter Moscow.
As I mention, the revised and updated version of my book We Need To Talk About Putin is published in the UK by Penguin on 13 November, and is available for pre-order. Elsewhere, it may take lo...
In Moscow's Shadows 215: A Tale of Two Coups
The 1991 August Coup and the 1993 October Coup are oddities, at once still very current in Russia, yet also veiled in myth and self-deception. Why? I'll argue is that together, they inadvertently paved the way for Putin.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the...
In Moscow's Shadows 214: Law and Lawlessness in Late Putinism (or, Late Brezhnevism redux)
The FSB is trumpeting its arrests of Ukrainian saboteurs and demanding more surveillance powers. Prosecutor General Krasnov is set to become the chair of the Supreme Court. Figures have been released showing that corruption cases rose 16% in the first half of the year. Put together, how do these highlight the hollowing out of Russia, the convergence of late Putinism and late Brezhnevism?
Information about forthcoming book events are here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and...
In Moscow's Shadows 213: Foreign Agents in Russia, Foreigners in Ukraine...
After a brief comment on the frozen peace process, I look at the case of Sergei Markov, voluble Kremlin loyalist, who has just been declared a Foreign Agents. What's going on - he seems to have been caught by Russia's escalating feud with Azerbaijan - and what does this say about the decay of late Putinism?
In the second half, I consider three recent books and what they say about how we discuss and think about the war in Ukraine. They are:
Colin Freeman, The Mad and the Brave. The Untold Story of Ukraine’s...
In Moscow's Shadows 212: War and Peace and Alaska
Alaska was owned by Russia - was the summit also? Where is the world after the Alaska summit? Putin won, but did Trump really lose (I'd suggest not really, because his interests are not that opposed)? And if - if - we are any closer to a peace, what might that look like?
Tickets for the Waterstones book event I mentioned in London on 4 September are available here.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar...
In Moscow's Shadows 211: Trump, Putin, Alaska...
So Trump and Putin are meeting in Alaska on Friday. Are we on the brink of peace in Ukraine or another mess? I wish I could be more optimistic.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news...
In Moscow's Shadows 210: Is Russia Being Sentenced To The Digital Gulag?
With calls for WhatsApp to be banned and searching for 'extremist' material punishable by fines, there is much talk of a 'North Koreanisation' of Russia, of a 'digital gulag.' After a first half looking at developments in Ukraine, the war and international perceptions of threat, I dive into this issue. There are some interesting parallels with Soviet times, with different generations having different ideas about quite what to do with the online world.
More details on my forthcoming new book Homo Criminalis: how crime organises the world, here.
The podcast's corporate partner...
In Moscow's Shadows 209: Eagle, Dragon, Bear - how the Ukraine war drives Moscow into Beijing's orbit
In the first half, I offer a (rather pessimistic) assessment of not just Trump's 50-day ultimatum but also recent EU and UK sanctions, before pivoting to explore how the US president has inadvertently made it clear that it is not him but China's Xi Jinping who has more influence with Putin. What is the nature of the Sino-Russian relationship, and where is it going?
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also...
In Moscow's Shadows 208: 5 Million Downloads and Counting! A Q&A Compilation
In Moscow's Shadows has crossed the 5 million downloads barrier! This happens to coincide with this being an episode in which I tackle Patrons' questions on everything from why Russians fight and Chinese legal and criminal influence in the Russian Far East through to who would play whom in the film 'Death of Putin', and my own impartiality. Enjoy!
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's...
In Moscow's Shadows 207: What Is Going On Between Baku and Moscow?
In one corner, Azerbaijan's Ilhan Aliev, in the other, Russia's Vladimir Putin, two autocrats locked in an increasingly acrimonious political conflict sparked by, of all things, the arrest of some gangsters in Ekaterinburg. But it's bigger than that, and I locate the conflict in the context of Russia's receding role as regional hegemon, the politics of personalised authoritarianisms, and the agency and agendas of low-level political actors.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
...
In Moscow's Shadows 206: Corruption, Putinism's Achilles' Heel
After some thoughts about the recent NATO summit in The Hague, I focus on the perennial challenge of corruption. Even Russian officials are admitting it is again on the rise, and becoming more predatory, While there is a regular litany of middle-ranking officials charged and sentenced, there is no political will to tackle grand corruption at the top of the system -- and declining capacity to combat its resurgence at the bottom. What does all this mean for the system?
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive...
In Moscow's Shadows 205: The Peace Crisis that faces Russia after the Ukraine War
There is a range of serious practical problems that an end to the war in Ukraine -- whenever that may be -- will pose for the Kremlin. However, if the Soviet war in Afghanistan is any comparison, arguably every bit as important will be the narratives, how people frame the war and use it to attack or defend Putin's regime. I feel this is a political challenge they are not well suited to master.
My report Trouble at home: Russia's looming demobilization challenge can be downloaded from the Global Initiative site here.
The...
In Moscow's Shadows 204: The Opportunity and the Threat, Moscow and Iran, Moscow and the West
In the first half, I explore what the eruption of open conflict between Israel and Iran means for Russia. Will Putin be tempted to throw Iran under the bus? He certainly has much more scope and reason to do so than in 2022-24.
In the second half, I climb onto my soapbox to consider -- criticise -- some recent rhetoric about the Russian threat and bemoan the lack of dialogue, especially military-to-military contacts, with praise for the wargame Littoral Commander: the Baltics (Dietz Foundation) and David Fields & Robert Avery’s book The Royal And Russian Navies. Cooperation, Co...
In Moscow's Shadows 203: Can Putin Afford To End The War?
A pervasive argument is that for reasons personal, political or economic, Putin simply cannot afford to end his war: that he needs the excuse for tyranny, or that his economy would stagnate. I dig into these and other claims, and - spoiler alert - conclude that Putin could certainly afford to end the war... but that there are enough challenges to peace that he may not dare to.
The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.
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