GLOBAL REAL ESTATE DAILY

Thursday morning post-FOMC follow-through analysis for institutional real estate capital positioning following Federal Reserve decision execution. Post-FOMC Market Follow-Through: Federal Reserve's 25bp cut to 4.00%-4.25% creating sustained momentum. US 10-year Treasury rose to 4.13% with 30-year at 4.74% showing market adjustment while commercial mortgage rates positioned for continued compression from 5.01% baseline. Investment volume projected 15% increase for year up from earlier 10% estimate with dealmaking acceleration expected. Global Capital Deployment Acceleration: Cross-border investment building on 57% Q1 surge momentum with global capital flows projected to increase as interest rates decline. Industrial and multifamily expected immediate beneficiaries with data centers, student housing, senior housing continuing...

Wednesday morning post-FOMC global positioning analysis for institutional real estate capital following Federal Reserve decision execution. Global Central Bank Divergence Execution: Federal Reserve executed anticipated 25bp cut to 4.00%-4.25% range while ECB maintains rates creating 450bp policy spread. Currency-driven acquisition windows now fully active for international capital with cross-border investment surging 57% in Q1 2025 to highest level since 2022. Treasury and Mortgage Market Response: US 10-year Treasury eased to 4.03% post-decision with commercial mortgage rates positioned for compression from current 6.35% 30-year fixed. Market pricing additional cuts with global implications for institutional borrowing costs. CMBS Market Relief Beginning: $150.9B maturity wall refinancing opportunities...

Tuesday morning FOMC decision day analysis for global institutional real estate capital positioning ahead of central bank divergence opportunities. **Global Central Bank Divergence:** Federal Reserve 93% probability 25bp cut to 4.00%-4.25% while ECB holds at 4.50% and BOJ maintains ultra-low rates. Currency-driven acquisition windows emerging for international capital with USD positioning creating cross-border opportunities. **Cross-Border Capital Acceleration:** Asia-Pacific investment doubled 116.7% YoY to $9.5B. International investors 28.4% of regional activity. North America projected 38% increase to $575B. Central/Eastern Europe surging 51% YoY with Slovakia up 315%. **Sovereign Wealth Fund Reallocation:** Real estate allocations declining to 7.3% from 9.2% in 2022. Infrastructure surpassing real estate at 8.1% for first time...

Monday morning week-ahead positioning for institutional real estate capital ahead of the most consequential FOMC meeting of 2025. **Fed Watch:** 96% probability of 0.25% cut at September 16-17 FOMC. Federal funds rate positioned to move from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%. 10-year Treasury at 4.082% with new issues at 4.250%. Commercial mortgage rates starting at 5.08% positioned for compression. **CMBS Momentum:** Private-label issuance up 23.9% YoY through August. H1 2025 recorded $59.55B (highest mid-year total in 15+ years). SASB deals constituting 75% of market issuance. Delinquency rate climbed to 7.9% with $54.8B requiring servicer advances. **Global Investment Recovery:** Direct transaction activity $179B in Q2 2025 (14% YoY increase). H1 2025 volumes up 21% from H1 2024. Cross-border...

- Fed Watch: 92% probability of a 25 bps cut at the September 16–17 FOMC. 10-year UST ~4.04% near a five-month low; 5-year ~3.61%. Bank CRE rates ~5.70–6.22%; agency ~4.91–5.15%. - CMBS: Delinquency 7.29%; office ~11.7%. H1 2025 issuance at post-GFC highs, ~74–75% SASB. ~$150.9B 2025 maturity wall; ~23% office exposure. - Cap Rates: Stabilization continues. Industrial ~5.0%; Multifamily Class A ~4.74%; Office Class A ~8.4%; Data centers ~5.8%. - SWFs & Pensions: SWFs trimming direct real estate (~7.3%) while lifting infra (~8.1%) and private credit/real estate debt. Pension funds increasing REIT usage to 70% (2025). - Sectors: Office vacancy ~14.2% with flight-to-quality (NYC, DFW, Austin, Nashville, Miami). Industrial vacancy ~7.12% with 3PLs ~35% of leasing. Multifamily rent growth 1.5–2.6% for 2025; construction starts rolling over. Reta...

Thursday morning, September 11th, ECB decision day, and while your competition waits for the announcement, we're delivering the decision-day global intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital with the market-moving information. **ECB Decision Day Intelligence:** - Market consensus expecting hold at 2.0% deposit rate (66 out of 69 economists in Reuters poll) - Second consecutive pause after eight consecutive cuts since June 2024 - Inflation hovering around 2% target supporting pause, eurozone unemployment at 6.2% July - Potential December cut still on table with 28 economists predicting cut to 1.75% **Global Investment Recovery Intelligence:** - Global real estate investment projected 27% increase to $952B in 2025 - Cross-border capital...

Wednesday morning, September 10th, and while your competition waits for tomorrow's ECB decision, we're delivering the pre-meeting global intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital ahead of the curve. **Wednesday Pre-ECB Positioning:** - ECB September 11 meeting tomorrow with market consensus expecting hold at 2.0% deposit rate - Wait-and-see approach with potential cuts possibly deferred until December - Fed September 16-17 FOMC with 97% probability 25bp cut creating central bank divergence - French political uncertainty and inflation near 2% target supporting ECB pause **Global Investment Wednesday Intelligence:** - Global real estate investment recovery projected 27% increase to $952B in 2025 - North America leading growth 38...

Tuesday morning, September 9th, and while your competition analyzes yesterday's news, we're delivering the current global intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital for today's advantage. **Tuesday Central Bank Positioning:** - Fed September 16-17 FOMC meeting with 89% probability 25bp cut after weak jobs data - ECB September 11 meeting expected hold at 2.0% deposit rate with only 1% cut probability - BOJ maintaining pause due to political transition following PM Ishiba resignation - Central bank divergence creating Tuesday arbitrage opportunities for institutional capital **Global Investment Intelligence:** - Global CRE market valued $6.22T in 2025, projected $8.29T by 2030 (5.91% CAGR) - Investment turnover projected 27% increase...

Monday morning, September 8th, and while your competition digests weekend news, we're delivering the week ahead global intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital for five days of advantage. **Week Ahead Central Bank Intelligence:** - Fed September 16-17 FOMC meeting with 25bp cut expected after weak August jobs data (22,000 payrolls, 4.3% unemployment) - ECB September 11 meeting holding at 2.0% deposit rate - second consecutive meeting without change - BOJ delaying rate hikes due to political uncertainty following PM Ishiba resignation - Central bank divergence creating week ahead arbitrage opportunities for institutional capital **Global Investment Flow Positioning:** - Global real estate investment...

Friday afternoon, September 5th, and while your competition shuts down for the weekend, we're delivering the global intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital for Monday's advantage. **Weekend Global Positioning:** - Fed September 17 meeting with 99.4% probability of 25bp cut - ECB holding at 2.00% deposit rate after eight cuts since 2024 - BOJ continuing gradual tightening at 0.25% policy rate - Central bank divergence creating weekend arbitrage opportunities for institutional capital **Cross-Border Weekend Intelligence:** - $380B invested globally in real estate H1 2025 - Cross-border activity showing resilience despite Q1 2025 slight decline vs Q1 2024 - USD decline over 10% H1 2025 making US CRE more...

Thursday morning, September 4th, and while your competition focuses on domestic Fed chatter, we're delivering the global intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital across borders and currencies. **Global Central Bank Divergence:** - Fed cutting to 4.25%-4.5% while ECB holds at 2.00% deposit rate after eight cuts since 2024 - Goldman Sachs attributes divergence to Euro area stagnation vs US growth resilience - Creates massive cross-border arbitrage opportunities for institutional capital **Currency-Driven Capital Flows:** - USD strength making foreign properties attractive to US investors - Euro projected below parity Q1 creating Eurozone opportunities for foreign capital - Japanese Yen weakness driving 68...

Wednesday morning, and while your competition operates on Monday's stale data, we're delivering the mid-week intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital for today's advantage. **Wednesday Market Pulse:** - SOFR steady at 4.34% with September average forecast 4.339% - September 16-17 FOMC meeting approaching with 87% probability of 25bp cut - Treasury 10-Year at 4.28%, but 30-Year climbing toward 5% (level not seen since 2008 crisis) **Mid-Week CMBS Intelligence:** - Office CMBS delinquency hit record 11.66% in August (up 62bp from July) - Exploding over 10 percentage points since December 2022 - Overall CMBS delinquency 7.29% for sixth consecutive monthly increase - Multifamily surged to nine-year high 6.86%, while industrial maintains...

Tuesday morning, and while your competition is still digesting yesterday's news, we're delivering the intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital for today's advantage. **Tuesday Market Pulse:** - Treasury at 4.25% (slight decrease from previous session) - 2-Year at 3.64% - SOFR steady at 4.34% - Fed funds maintained at 4.25%-4.5% range with September meeting in focus **CMBS Intelligence:** - Record CMBS issuance $58.8-59.55B in H1 2025 (highest since 2007 Global Financial Crisis) - SASB deals dominating at 74-75% of total issuance - "flight to quality" among investors - Office CMBS delinquency hit record 11.7% in August (surpassing Financial Crisis peak) - Overall CMBS...

Monday morning, and while your competition is still catching up on weekend news, we're delivering the week ahead intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital for five days of advantage. **Week Ahead Markets:** - Fed meeting September 17th with 95% probability of 25bp cut - Treasury at 4.23% (down 15bp this month) - SOFR at 4.34% overnight rate - Federal funds currently 4.25%-4.5% range with rate cut momentum building **Monday Morning Intelligence:** - CRE investment activity projected 10% increase in 2025 - Commercial sales surged 16% in H1 2025 - Institutional sentiment: 71% holding tight but 70% planning increased purchases (CBRE survey) - CMBS maturity wall: $150.9B maturing in 2025, $63.6...

Friday evening, and while your competition heads to happy hour, we're delivering the weekend intelligence that positions institutional real estate capital for Monday's advantage. **The Week That Moved CRE Markets:** - Treasury moved from 4.73% to 4.68% this week - SOFR down 3 basis points to 4.55% - Impact on $100M+ permanent loans and construction financing - Green Street multifamily index up 0.4% for the week - Industrial cap rates holding steady at 5.85% **Real Estate Weekend Files:** Essential reading for institutional players: - Real Capital Analytics Q3 report: $2.1B in major transactions - Mortgage Bankers Association construction lending survey - Fed's latest Beige Book commentary...

Thursday morning, and while everyone else is reading yesterday's news, we're delivering tomorrow's advantage. Today's intelligence brief covers the 10-year Treasury move to 4.73%, SOFR positioning at 4.58%, and critical market intelligence on conduit lender discipline. **Key Intelligence:** - Treasury and SOFR movements impacting $100M+ permanent loans - Real Capital Analytics: $2.8B in major transactions, market patterns - Green Street multifamily values up 0.3% for third consecutive month - Industrial cap rates compressed 5 basis points to 5.85% **Exclusive Insider Brief:** Three major life insurance companies just changed multifamily underwriting for deals over $100M. New requirement: 18-month interest rate hedging on floating-rate construction loans (up...