The Tanmay Edge | India's pre-market edge 5 minutes, every trading day.
Every trading day, before 9:15 AM, Tanmay Kurtkoti gives you the one edge most traders miss before market open. The Tanmay Edge is a daily 5-minute pre-market audio brief covering: • Key levels, open interest, and GEX data for Nifty & BankNifty • Options flow and derivatives market structure • What institutional money is signalling overnight • The one setup worth watching at open Tanmay is the founder of QCAlpha Advisors ($75M+ AUM) and RupeeCase — India's systematic quantitative investing terminal. He has 16+ years in derivatives and quantitative trading, including prop desk experience at Religare. No fluff. No filler. Just your edge — before the chaos begins. Subscribe on Apple Pod...
S2 EP 11 | FY27 Opens with a Bang |. Brent Crashed 105$ | GIFT Nifty +367 | Full Risk-On
FY27 Day 1 opens with GIFT Nifty +367 at 22,800. Brent crashed from $116 to $105.49, Gold at all-time high $4,694, DXY below 100. Every global index is green — KOSPI +6.26%, Nikkei +4.13%, Nasdaq +3.83%. FII pulled a record -3.36L Cr in derivatives in March. They're massively short. Today's gap-up starts the squeeze. Pro reduced longs. Client is all-in bullish. Full risk-on.
Timestamps:
0:00 Cold Open — FY27 Day 1 Gap-Up
0:35 Global + Commodities — Brent crash, Gold ATH, global rally
1:30 Pro/FII/CLI — Record March outflow, positioning squeeze
3:00 Options + Levels — Key strikes, OI, GEX
4:15 TK Screener + Sectors — Recovery watch, momentum names
...
S2 EP10 | The Last Day | Brent at 116. GIFT Nifty Down 238. FY26 Ends in Blood.
The last trading day of FY25-26 and it's ugly. GIFT Nifty gaps down 238 to 22,589. Brent crude crosses 116. Nikkei crashes 4.5%. FII has pulled 1,14,000 crore from India in March. Pro and FII both short while retail sits long. I break down the global carnage, the positioning trap, and the 1 level I'm watching for a bounce. Plus — how the Nifty Momentum 10 on RupeeCase beat the benchmark by over 1% today.
Host: Tanmay Kurtkoti Stream free: rupeecase.com
00:00 Cold Open — Brent 116, Asia in freefall 00:20 Intro 00:35 Global Markets + Commodities — US, Europe, Asia all red 01:30 Pro / FII / CLI Positioning — Smart money vs the c...
S2 EP9 The Quiet Accumulation | Consolidation + IV Crush | 27 March 2026
Nifty closed at 23,191. GIFT Nifty gaps down to 23,145. Nasdaq sold off 2.38% overnight. But Pro traders are still going long 4th straight session. FII still adding shorts at -2,48,712 contracts. Sectors flipping to Buy inside a Sell signal. Someone's quietly accumulating. Today's read: consolidation, IV crush, buy on dips.
Timestamps: [0:00] Cold Open — GIFT Nifty gaps down, but Pro vs FII divergence deepens [0:20] Intro [0:35] Global Cues — Nasdaq -2.38%, Europe all red, GIFT Nifty 23,145 [1:30] Pro/FII/Client — Pro accumulating, FII adding shorts, 4th day of divergence [3:00] Options — 23,000 pivot, 23,300 squeeze trigger, VIX crushing, IV expected to drop [4:15] TK Screener — Sell, BUT IT/Infra/A...
S2 EP8 — The Distribution Trap | Sensex Expiry at 74,000 | 25 Mar, Wednesday
Crude crashing — Brent -6% to $98. GIFT Nifty above 23,000. FIIs sitting on 2,48,712 shorts — added MORE into ceasefire rally. Sensex expiry at 74,000 GEX flip zone. Full positioning: FII (-2,48,712 short) vs Clients (+1,48,527 long) vs Pros (selling premium). 1 SD ranges: Sensex 73,569–75,031, Nifty 22,712–23,437. IV crush: Sensex ATM 42%→28%. TK Screener rotation (IT, Infra, Auto → Buy). GEX education. 5-min pre-market edge.
Timestamps:
[0:00] Cold Open — GIFT Nifty above 23K, crude crashing -6%[0:15] Intro[0:30] Global Cues — Crude -6%, Asia ripping, gold $4,583[1:15] FII/DII — Full positioning: FII vs Client vs Pro vs DII[2:15] Options — Sensex 74K expiry + 1 SD ranges + IV crush 42%→28%[3:15] TK Screener — IT, Infra...
S2 EP7: The Ceasefire Fade | The Expiry Pin at 23,000 | 24 March 2026, Tuesday
GIFT Nifty touched 23,500 overnight on ceasefire news — then faded 600 points back to 22,877. The squeeze came and went. It's expiry day, IV is at 55%, and 23,000 is the number everyone is watching.
In today's episode: • Global cues — US mixed, crude bounces to $104, Asia modestly green • FII sold -₹10,414 Cr cash (heaviest since 13 Mar) — cumulative selling crosses ₹1 lakh crore • FII shorts deepened to -2,43,961 contracts — squeeze fading at current levels • 23,000 call wall with 74.93L OI — THE expiry pin strike • IV Crush education — why your straddle loses money even when the market moves 400 points • RupeeCase Nifty 50 model held +0.38% alpha through the drawdown — rebalances today<...
S2 EP6: FIIs Shorting Hard | Will 23,000 Hold the Week? | 23 March
Three things happening at once today. GIFT Nifty down 338 points this morning — opening below 23,000. FIIs added shorts for the second straight Friday. And RupeeCase rebalances — right at 23,000.
The data: FIIs sold ₹5,518 crores in cash on Friday and added another 5,556 futures shorts. Their net short position is now −2,34,508 contracts — heading back towards the −2,60,540 peak. Cumulative cash selling is approaching ₹1 lakh crore. But DII cash buying was +₹5,706 Cr — almost perfectly absorbing the sell. The 23,000 put OI grew from 6.75 lakh to 7.29 lakh on Friday. Someone is adding protection, not removing it.
Tomorrow is the 24-Mar weekly expiry. IV at 22%. Pre-expiry...
S2 EP5: The 23000 Test | Clients Unwind, VWAP Magnet | 20 March, Friday
Nifty fell 687 points in two days. This morning GIFT Nifty is up 101. Does 23,000 hold and where does the bounce go?
The data: FIIs sold ₹7,558 crores in cash yesterday and added back to futures shorts (now -2,28,952 contracts). VIX spiked 21% to 22.74. But this morning Dow futures are up 519 pts and Brent crude is pulling back from $111 to $105 the inflation pressure that triggered Thursday's fall is easing.
Today's framework: 23,000 has 6.75 lakh puts written it held yesterday and it's the floor. Weekly VWAP at 23,400 is the first bounce target. Monthly VWAP at 24,000 is the gravitational pull for the 28 Ma...
S2 EP4: HDFC Bank Shock | The Long Gamma Setup | 19 March, Thursday
Brent crude surged to $111.59 (+3.92%) overnight — a double negative alongside the banking shock. Asia broadly red: Nikkei -2.53%, Hang Seng -1.60%, Nasdaq -1.46% at US close. This isn't a normal gap down. But it's also not a broad market collapse — it's a single heavyweight stock repricing.
The setup: HDFCBANK has ~12.5% weight in Nifty. A 7.5% fall in one stock explains most of the 510-point drop. Once that shock absorbs, 23,400–23,500 is the mean reversion zone. VIX expected to spike to 20+ — long gamma day, buy options, don't sell into the opening. FII short cover trend was 3 days running — watch if they hold or re...
S2 EP3: Post-Expiry Consolidation | The 23,600 Lid | 18 March, Wednesday
Bulls won the expiry. Can they hold above 23,600?
Yesterday's story: Nifty closed 23,581 (+172 pts), IV crushed 88% on expiry, VIX dropped 8.38% to 19.79. And for the first time in weeks — FIIs bought index futures (+₹1,247 Cr) while still selling cash (-₹4,741 Cr). A small number, but the first crack in the short wall. FII net short position reduced to 2,40,775 contracts.
Today's setup: GIFT Nifty +82 at 23,664 signals a moderate gap up straight into 23,600 resistance — where 20 lakh calls are written. Post-expiry consolidation likely between 23,500 and 23,650. Brent crude pulling back from $104 to $102 — constructive for India. Sectors to watch: Auto (Strong Buy), Finance (Strong Buy...
S2 EP02: Expiry Day Squeeze | Bulls vs The Wall at 23,500 | 17 March, Tuesday
It's expiry day — and Nifty wants to gap up 140 points straight into the 23,500 wall.
GIFT Nifty at 23,496. Asia broadly green — KOSPI +2.77%, Hang Seng +1.11%, Taiwan +1.77%. Brent crude still above $100 at $102.95. But don't let the green fool you: FIIs sold another ₹9,365 crores in cash on Monday and are sitting on 2.48 lakh short index futures contracts. The structural sell hasn't changed.
In options: 23,500 has 52 lakh calls sold against it — the wall of the day. IV at 26.03 with straddles at ₹410. TK Screener says sell IV today. VIX dropped 4.5% yesterday — panic easing but trend still down. Key levels: 23,500 resistance, 23,300 support, 23,200 secondary. W...
S2 EP1: Gap Up Into Resistance | The Long Gamma Play | 16 March, Monday
Markets open green — but don't be fooled by the gap.
GIFT Nifty is trading 77 points higher at 23,280, up 0.33%, signalling a flat to positive open for Monday. Asian markets are mixed — Nikkei down 1.23%, Jakarta down 2.62%, while Hang Seng and Straits Times are holding slight gains. Dow futures are showing early morning strength after European markets closed marginally negative on Friday.
On commodities: Brent crude is trading above the $100 mark at $104, up 1.36%. Gold is cracking — down 0.33% at $5,005 per ounce. MCX gold closed at ₹1,58,400 and silver at ₹2,59,279.
The real story is in the FII/DII data. On Friday...
EP30: Gap Down Incoming | Scalp the Spread | 13th March, Friday
Friday, 13th March — GIFT Nifty trades at 23,510, down 206 points, signalling a weak open near 23,500. US markets closed sharply lower — S&P 500 down 1.52% and Nasdaq down 1.78% — while European markets shed 0.5%. Asian markets are broadly in the red this morning, with Nikkei down 1.24% and Kospi down 1.52%.
FIIs were net sellers of ₹7,049 crore yesterday, while DIIs absorbed ₹7,449 crore. For March, FIIs have sold ₹46,166 crore versus DIIs buying ₹60,549 crore. Since April 2024, FIIs have offloaded ₹2,56,000 crore while DIIs have bought ₹7,57,000 crore, continuing to provide a strong backstop.
On positioning, FIIs are aggressively short 2,26,327 index futures contracts. Clients have sold a massive 5,15,027 p...
EP29: Long Gamma Still in Play | Bull Put Spread Setup | 22nd August, Friday
Friday, 22nd August — GIFT Nifty trades at 25,057, down 50 points, even as Asian markets hold steady in the green. US indices slipped overnight, with the Nasdaq down 0.34% at a crucial 21,000 level.
Flows turned supportive, with FIIs buying ₹1,246 crore and DIIs adding ₹2,546 crore. For the month, however, FIIs remain net sellers (-₹24,128 crore), while DIIs continue to absorb supply (+₹66,512 crore).
Positioning data shows clients maintaining their long stance with 4.43 lakh shares net long, while pros remain net short at 1.21 lakh shares, balancing the risk. With implied volatility at just 8.5 for the August expiry and realiz...
EP29: Long Gamma Still in Play | Bull Put Spread Setup | 22nd August, Friday
Friday, 22nd August — GIFT Nifty trades at 25,057, down 50 points, even as Asian markets hold steady in the green. US indices slipped overnight, with the Nasdaq down 0.34% at a crucial 21,000 level.
Flows turned supportive, with FIIs buying ₹1,246 crore and DIIs adding ₹2,546 crore. For the month, however, FIIs remain net sellers (-₹24,128 crore), while DIIs continue to absorb supply (+₹66,512 crore).
Positioning data shows clients maintaining their long stance with 4.43 lakh shares net long, while pros remain net short at 1.21 lakh shares, balancing the risk. With implied volatility at just 8.5 for the August expiry and realiz...
EP28: Low Vols on Expiry Day | Calendar Trades & Butterfly Setup | 21st August, Thursday
It’s expiry day, Thursday 21st August, and markets are trading steady near the 25,000 mark. GIFT Nifty is higher at 25,109 (+29 pts), even as US markets saw weakness (Nasdaq -142 pts) and Asian markets trade mixed. Crude has bounced back above $67, gold is inching higher, and USDINR trades firm above 87.
Flows remain divergent — FIIs sold another ₹1,100 crore while DIIs bought ₹1,806 crore, keeping the monthly totals wide apart (FIIs -₹25,375 crore vs DIIs +₹63,966 crore).
Positioning shows clients still holding net longs (~3.16L shares), while pros have cut their shorts to ~56k. Synthetic futures are aligned...
EP27: Nifty Balances at 25K | Longs Reduce, Pros Cut Shorts, Calendar Trades in Play | 20th August, Wednesday
Welcome to Trade Setup with Tanmay — your 5-minute audio podcast before the chaos begins.
It’s Wednesday, 20th August, and markets are holding steady near the 25,000 mark despite weakness in global equities. Asian indices are sharply lower (Nikkei -1.6%, Taiwan -1.8%, Kospi -1.85%), while US markets saw a tech-led selloff with Nasdaq dropping 1.5%. Brent crude remains under $66, gold continues to slip, and USDINR has cooled off after rejecting 87.50 resistance.
Flows remain divergent — FIIs sold ₹634 crore while DIIs bought ₹2,261 crore, keeping the monthly trend intact: FIIs net sellers (₹24,200 cr) and DIIs strong buyers (₹62...
EP26: Nifty Steadies Near 25,000, Range Trade Likely Sensex Expiry Watch & Sector Cues | 19th August, Tuesday
EP26: Nifty Steadies Near 25,000, Range Trade Likely — Expiry Watch & Sector Cues | 19th August, Tuesday
Global Cues:US markets rallied overnight.Asian markets mostly weak: Hang Seng (-0.3%), Taiwan (-0.58%), Kospi (-0.5%), Nikkei (-0.1%).Brent crude slipped below $67, trading at $66.28.Dollar Index at 98.20, USDINR testing resistance at 87.50–87.75.Institutional Flows:FIIs finally turned buyers, +₹550 crore.DIIs bought ₹4,103 crore.MTD: FIIs net sold ₹23,740 crore, DIIs net bought ₹59,899 crore.Derivatives Positioning:Clients: Net long ~5.54 lakh shares (92k long calls, 4.32 lakh short puts, 1.15 lakh futures long).Pros: Net short, continuing defensive stance.Volatility & Range:IVs at 11.09 (21...EP25: Positive Start, GST Reforms, Long Gamma Bias | 18th August (Monday)
A very good morning and welcome to Trade Setup with Tanmay — your 5-minute audio podcast before the chaos begins.
As of this morning, GIFT Nifty is trading at 24,924, up nearly 270 points, indicating a positive start to the week.
Key Market Drivers
GST Reform Impact: The recent next-gen reforms in GST, with tax rate changes, could influence individual stocks and entire sectors. This will be the key theme to watch.Global Cues:Nikkei: +361 pts (43,740)Taiwan: +86 pts (0.36%)Shanghai: +0.58%On the weaker side: Kospi (-1.2%), Strait (-0.66%), Jakarta (-0.4%)→ Overall, Asia is trading mixed.Commodities & Currency:
Cr...EP 24 : 24,700 Hurdle, Low IV — Short Calendar + Long Straddle Setup | 14 Aug (Thu)
GIFT Nifty is trading flat near 24,650 this morning as markets gear up for expiry. Global cues are mixed — US markets closed positive with Nasdaq at 21,713 (+137 pts) and S&P 500 at 6,466 (+20 pts), while Asian markets are split: Jakarta and Shanghai in the green, Nikkei higher by 267 pts (+0.66%), but Hang Seng and Taiwan slightly weaker.
Institutional Flow (13th Aug):
FIIs: Sold ₹3,644 Cr (MTD: -₹22,264 Cr)DIIs: Bought ₹5,623 Cr (MTD: +₹51,899 Cr)Earnings Watch – Final Day of the Season:
Over 530 results expected today, including:
IOC, Ashok Leyland, Vodafone Ide...
EP 23 : Flat Open,Tariff Tensions, Long Gamma in Play, and Heavyweight Earnings on Tap
As of this morning, GIFT Nifty is trading around 24,644, down by nearly 40 points, indicating a soft start to the day. But global developments are more significant, with renewed 25% tariff discussions and ongoing geopolitical tensions weighing on sentiment.
Global Market Snapshot:
US markets closed higher overnightNikkei rallied over 2.16%, up nearly 900 pointsJakarta and Taiwan also opened strongHang Seng bucked the trend, down 0.86%Brent Crude remains under pressure, trading near $67.5Gold continues to show strength, currently at $3,381Dollar Index is near 98; USDINR testing 88.00Institutional Flow:
FIIs were...EP 22 : | Expiry Day | Tariff Jitters & Volatility Spike | 7 Aug ( Thursday )
The expiry starts on a weak note with Gift Nifty down 69 points around 24,561 — weighed down by continued FII selling and fresh US tariffs on oil imports.
Despite a strong global setup (Nasdaq +1.2%, Dow Futures up), Indian markets are bucking the trend.
Big Headlines:
RBI kept repo rate unchanged at 5.5%U.S. slapped 25% tariffs on key oil-linked importsApple-led tech rally boosted NasdaqVolatility likely to rise into the second halfGlobal Markets Snapshot:
Nasdaq: +1.2% | 21,169S&P 500: +0.73% | 6,345Dow Futures: +146 ptsAsia: Mixed, with Taiwan leading (+2.28%), while India underperformsBrent Crude: $67.50Gold: $3,381 | Strength returnsUSDINR: 87.73 | Near key 88 re...EP 21: RBI Policy Day, Flat Open, Long Gamma Still in Play, Clients vs Pros Diverge 6th August ( Wed )
EP 21: RBI Policy Day, Flat Open, Long Gamma Still in Play, Clients vs Pros Diverge 6th August ( Wed )
Market Snapshot
Gift Nifty trades flat at 24,704RBI’s MPC policy meet today at 10 AMNo rate change expected, but some calls for 25 bps cutGlobal Markets
Nasdaq: -137 pts (20,916)S&P 500: -30 pts (6,299)Dow Futures: +146 ptsAsia Mixed:Nikkei: +267 ptsJakarta, Shanghai: Mildly positiveTaiwan: -140 ptsHang Seng: -146 ptsFII/DII Cash Flow (5 Aug)
FIIs: Sold ₹22 CrDIIs: Bought ₹3,840 CrMTD Totals:FIIs: -₹5,955 CrDIIs: +₹11,413 CrEarnings Watch (6 A...
EP 20: Tuesday, 5th August | Flat Start, Long Gamma Play, FII/DII Flow, Trade the levels. Watch the traps.
Market Snapshot
Gift Nifty is flat at 24,720 — suggesting a muted open. After yesterday’s volatile bounce, markets are consolidating below the 24,700 zone. Volatility has risen from extreme lows, and real moves are starting to exceed implied expectations — setting the tone for long gamma plays.
🌍 Global Markets
Dow Futures: +35 ptsNasdaq: Closed +0.3% at 20,710S&P 500: Closed flat at 6,238Europe: Slight recovery, FTSE & CAC marginally positiveAsia: MixedNikkei: -0.4%Hang Seng: +0.2%Taiwan, Shanghai: Flat📊 FII/DII Cash Flows (Monday, 4 Aug)
FIIs: Sold ₹2,968 CrDIIs: Bought ₹3,105 CrMTD TotalsFIIs: -₹8,356 CrDIIs: +₹9,960 Cr📈 Derivatives Positioning...
EP 19 : Global Weakness, Heavy Client Longs, and Realized Vol Bounce | August 4 (Monday)
Welcome to EP19 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your 5-minute audio podcast before the chaos begins.
The August series kicks off with caution. Gift Nifty trades 84 points higher at 24,683, but global sentiment remains weak. US and European indices closed sharply lower on Friday, and Asian markets this morning are deep in the red — barring a few exceptions.
Despite this, clients continue to carry aggressive long positions, even as pros quietly maintain bearish exposure. Volatility is beginning to pick up, and the divergence between implied and realized moves is creating space for long gamma strategies th...
EP 18 : August Series Begins with Global Jitters, FII Selling, and Weak Sector Setup | August 1 (Friday)
Welcome to EP18 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.
The August series opens on the back foot. Gift Nifty is down 105 points, trading near 24,730, pressured by weak global cues, ongoing FII selling, and tariff tensions. The July expiry saw late-day selling despite a bounce earlier in the session, closing Nifty at 24,768.
Global Snapshot:
AsiaNikkei: -170 pts (-0.43%)Hang Seng: -80 pts (-0.3%)Taiwan: -127 pts (-0.5%)Kospi: -3%Shanghai, Jakarta: Flat to positiveGift Nifty: 24,730 (↓0.42%) at 8 AM ISTCommodities & Currency:
Brent Crude: $71.59 — faci...EP 17 : Tariff Shock, FII Selling, Expiry Volatility in Focus | July 31 (Thursday)
Welcome to EP17 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.
Markets are set to open deep in the red after Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India. Gift Nifty is down 180 points around 24,675 as of 8 AM. It’s expiry day, and volatility is likely to spike sharply in the morning session.
Global Snapshot:
Nasdaq: +31 pts to 21,129S&P 500: -8 pts to 6,362Dow Futures: +53 ptsEurope: All major indices positive (FTSE +50, CAC +56, DAX +247)Asia: MixedGift Nifty: 24,675 (↓0.8%)Commodities & Currency:
Brent Crude: $72.36Gold (Comex): $3,292/ozGold (MCX): ₹98,795 — risingCrude (MCX): ₹6,022 — strongSilver: ₹1,13,850Dollar Index: 98.7USD...EP 16 : FII Selling Streak, Sector Divergence, and Expiry Drift Ahead | July 30 (Wednesday)
Welcome to EP16 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.
Markets open flat with Gift Nifty at 24,803, down 36 points. The setup remains cautious ahead of the key Fed decision tonight. FIIs continue to sell for the eighth straight day, while DII flows support the market. Earnings, global cues, and sector rotations are setting the tone.
Global Markets
US indices touched record highs before paring gains.
Nasdaq: 21,098 (-18 pts)
S&P 500: 6,370.86 (-18 pts)
Dow Futures: +53 pts
...
EP 15: FII Sell-Off Continues, Clients Overloaded Long, and Breakdown Risk Rises | July 29 (Tuesday)
Welcome to EP15 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.
The market opens on a shaky note. Gift Nifty is down 45 points at 24,673. FIIs have now sold for six straight sessions. Clients are overloaded on the long side while pros quietly accumulate puts. Is another leg down on the cards?
📊FII/DII Cash Activity (Monday):FIIs: Sold ₹6,082 CrDIIs: Bought ₹6,764 CrMTD Tally:FIIs: -₹36,591 CrDIIs: +₹46,590 Cr⚙️Market Setup:
Nifty (Spot): ~24,706Opening print expected: ~24,650TK Algo Signal: Still in Sell mode from 25,13...EP 14 : FIIs Keep Selling, Vols Stay Subdued, and Key Support in Play | July 28 (Monday)
Welcome to EP14 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute pre-market podcast before the chaos begins.
The week begins flat with Gift Nifty at 24,839, but sentiment remains fragile. FIIs continue to sell, earnings are heavy, and key support levels are being tested.
🌍 Global Cues:
Dow Futures: +183 pts at 45,083S&P 500 & Nasdaq: Closed higher on FridayEurope: MixedAsia:Crude: $69Gold: $3,332 (↓0.15%)Dollar Index: 97.64USDINR: 86.52📊 FII/DII Activity (Friday):
FIIs: Sold ₹1,979 CrDIIs: Bought ₹2,138 CrMTD Net:FIIs: -₹30,508 CrDIIs: +₹39,825 Cr💼 Earnings Today (86+ Companies):
Key names: Indian Bank, Nestle, Adani Trans, Canara Bank, AFL, E...
EP13: Expiry Day, Bullish Bias & Long Calendars in Focus | July 24 (Thursday)
Welcome to EP13 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute market prep before the chaos begins.
It’s expiry day, and the setup is primed for an upward bias. Gift Nifty is trading 50 points higher at 25,297, while vols remain extremely compressed. TK breaks down the global cues, client vs pro positioning, sector momentum, and expiry trades.
🌏Global Snapshot
Nasdaq: +127 pts — new highs led by AlphabetS&P 500: 6,358 (+49 pts)Dow Futures: Flat to negativeAsia: Rally continues as US–India trade tensions easeCrude: Subdued at $68.67Gold: Cooled off to $33.85/ozDollar Index: 97.19USDINR: 86.41 — INR weakness continues📊FII/DII...
EP12 : Gap-Ups, No Follow-Through & Ultra-Low Volatility | July 23 (Wednesday)
Welcome to EP12 of Trade Setup with TANMAY, your 5-minute prep before the markets open.
Markets continue to gap up in the morning and fade mid-session. With volatility near record lows and clients overloaded on put shorts, is another trap brewing? Let’s dive in.
Global Markets:
Dow: +129 ptsS&P 500: Flat at 6,309Nasdaq: Still strong at 20,892Europe: Mixed — DAX down 1.1%, FTSE & CAC flatAsia: Strong open — Nikkei +3%, Taiwan, Hang Seng positiveIndian Markets:
Gift Nifty: +78 pts at 25,164Expected open: Nifty around 25,150FII/DII Ac...
EP: 11 Low Vol, Strong Open, and Sector Rotation in Play | July 22 (Tuesday)
Welcome to EP11 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your go-to 5-minute market prep before the chaos begins.
After Jane Street’s return, Monday saw a volatile drop to 24,900, followed by a solid bounce to 25,100. TK walks through global cues, internal positioning, sector strength, and smart expiry trades for the day.
📈 Global Markets:
S&P 500 (SPY) hit a record: 6,305Nasdaq closed at a new high: 20,974Dow lost steam late but is positive again in futuresEurope: Mixed close — FTSE, DAX up; CAC slightly downAsia: Rallying across the board — Nikkei, Taiwan, Jakarta all green📊...
EP10: Low Vols, Heavy Put Shorts, and Earnings Heat Up | July 21 (Monday)
Welcome to EP10 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute edge before Indian markets open. It’s a Monday filled with heavy results, weak volatility, and divergent institutional bets. TK breaks it all down.
🔍
Top Highlights:
📉 Market Snapshot:
Gift Nifty at 24,991 — down 40 pointsNifty closed Friday at 25,020, flirting with key support near 24,900Straddle (25,000) priced at ₹256 → 1 SD range:Upside: ~25,220Downside: ~24,840🌍 Global Cues:
US Markets closed at record highsDow: 44,390Nasdaq: +10 ptsS&P: FlatEurope also ended higherDollar Index: 98.40 (cracked below 98.50)USDINR: 86.15 (resistance: 86.25, support: 85.90)📊 FII/DII Flows...
EP09: Pros Turn Defensive, Clients Stay Bullish — Range Still in Play | July 18
Welcome to EP09 of Trade Setup with Tanmay your 5-minute daily prep before the market opens.
In today’s episode, Tanmay breaks down the global rally, institutional positioning, and what the algo is flashing ahead of a likely continued consolidation between key levels.
Top Highlights:
📈 Global Markets:
US Markets closed strong:Dow up 200 ptsS&P +33 ptsNasdaq hit 20,884Dow Futures still up +93 pts at 7 AM ISTAsia: All major indices (Hang Seng, Taiwan, Jakarta, Shanghai) trading 0.3%–1% higher📉 Indian Markets Snapshot:
Gift Nifty up 29 pts...EP08: Expiry Day Playbook: Low IV, Range Compression & Calendar Setups | July 17
Welcome to EP08 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your daily 5-minute prep before the chaos begins. It’s expiry day and volatility is crushed — here’s your quick market pulse, sector plays, and trade ideas.
🔥
Top Highlights:
📉 Market Snapshot:
Gift Nifty trades at 25,273, up 42 points at open.We’ve been range-bound around 25,200–25,250 for 5 straight sessions — and it’s worked well for volatility sellers.🌍 Global & Asian Markets:
Trump drama: Powell sacking threat made → later withdrawn.US Markets: Dow +200 pts, S&P +0.32%, Nasdaq +52 pts.Europe: Mixed to negative — FTSE, CAC, DAX...EP07 Volatility Drops to 8s, Put Shorts Dominate – Iron Fly & Calendar Spreads for July 16
Welcome to EP07 of Trade Setup with Tanmay Kurtkoti, your 5-minute morning podcast before the chaos begins. In this episode, Tanmay dives into US inflation, market reactions, sector rotations, and option structures for expiry week.
🔥
Top Highlights:
📉 Market Snapshot:
Gift Nifty down 90 points, trading near 25,170 at 8:20 AM.Monday’s close: 25,195, minor bounce from lows.CPI surprise: US inflation rose to 2.7% YoY vs 2.6% expected → minor global jitters.🌍 Global & Asian Markets:
US Markets: Dow & S&P fell 0.2%–0.4%, Nasdaq up 0.2%Europe: FTSE, CAC, DAX...EP06: FII Selling Returns, Volatility Low – Calendar Spread in Play | July 14 (Monday)
Welcome to Episode 6 of Trade Setup with Tanmay, your 5-minute podcast before the chaos begins. In this episode, Tanmay Kurtkoti Founder QCAlpha breaks down the global setup, sector flows, volatility signals, and trade ideas for the day.
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Top Highlights:
📉 Market Overview:
SGX Nifty at 25,188, flat to mildly negative.Friday close: Nifty dipped below key support at 25,200, entering a volatile but low IV zone.Current mean reversion level: 25,300; buy near 25,000 levels.🌍 Global Cues:
US Markets down: Dow -0.5%, S...EP05: FOMC Minutes Ahead, TK Algo Turns Long IV – What to Expect Before the Next Breakout
Welcome to Episode 5 of Trade Setup with Tanmay – your daily 5-minute edge before the chaos begins.
In today’s (July 9th) episode, we focus on momentum shifts after a surprise rally and what’s building up before tonight’s FOMC minutes release.
🔍 Here’s what we cover today:
🎯 Nifty’s short-term support and resistance after yesterday’s late-day surge📉 Volatility drop + TK Algo flipping long = bullish bias building💰 FII/DII flows, client positioning – bullish tone from puts and futures🌏 Global markets: Flat Asia, positive cues from Europe, Trump’s copper tariffs spark commodity action📈 Sector strength...EP04: NSE’s ₹1 Lakh Loss Shocker, Sensex Expiry Gameplan & Calendar Strategy for the Win
Welcome to Episode 3 of Trade Setup with Tanmay – your 5-minute edge before the chaos begins.
Today’s market talk starts with a bang – NSE reveals retail traders lost over ₹1 lakh on average in FY25, even as participation soared by 41%.
But beyond the data, we set you up for Sensex expiry day with clarity on:
📉 Global market mood: US down on geopolitical worries, Asia bouncing back📊 Nifty’s narrow range play – key straddle data, IV outlook, and expected move🔄 Calendar spreads in play amid falling vols – what setup works today🔥 Sectoral trend c...EP03: Nifty Range Tightens, Volatility Drops – Is a Breakout Coming?
Welcome to Episode 2 of Trade Setup with Tanmay – your 5-minute edge before the chaos begins.
In today’s (July 7th) episode, we take a sharp look at:
📉 Friday’s volatile moves and how Nifty danced between 25,400–25,540🌏 Global market mood: Asia trades weak, US closed strong🛢️ Brent crude, gold, and currency updates📊 Sector radar: Pharma, Infra, Smallcap showing strong strength on PK Algo🔄 Nifty’s mean reversion level at 25,300 and straddle-based expected range🔥 Options outlook: Low IV, calendar spreads in play, and breakout watchWith markets just 2.5% away from lifetime highs, are we ge...
