Competent Man Podcast

Richard Duncan, a macro economist and author, discusses his views on the economic strategies proposed by former President Donald Trump, particularly focusing on Trump’s potential influence over the Federal Reserve and his plan to re-industrialize the United States. Duncan argues that Trump’s strategy aims to reverse the massive U.S. current account deficit, which has fueled global economic growth since the 1980s but has also led to de-industrialization and a hollowed-out middle class in the U.S. Trump’s plan, as outlined in a paper by Steven Moran, involves three steps: imposing high trade tariffs, threatening to withho...

Luke Gromen, founder and president of FFTT, discussed the geopolitical and economic implications of the US and China’s competition for critical minerals and infrastructure, particularly in the context of rare earth elements and semiconductor technology. Gromen highlighted the US’s recognition of the unsustainability of its current economic model, which has led to a significant reliance on China for manufacturing and industrial output. He emphasized that the US’s high debt-to-GDP ratio and political instability necessitate a shift in policy to re-industrialize and strengthen its domestic industrial base.

Gromen argued that China’s strateg...

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Kevin Muir, the publisher of The Macro Tourist Newsletter and co-host of The Market Huddle to the Competent Investor. Kevin expressed significant concerns about the current state of the markets. Muir highlighted the stark contrast between the extreme bearish sentiment of 2023 and the current widespread optimism, suggesting that the market may be overvalued and due for a correction. He compared the current environment to the dot-com bubble, emphasizing that while AI and other technologies may be revolutionary, the market’s exuberance has priced in expectations that may not be realistic.

Some Competent Li...

Rick Rule, founder and CEO of Rule Investment Media, discusses the current state and future of the metals and commodity markets with host Tom Bodrovics. Rule highlights the psychological and strategic considerations for investors in these markets, noting that while the market has significant potential, it may also experience volatility and corrections.

He shares his personal strategy of selling 25% of his junior mining investments to secure profits and reduce downside risk, while reinvesting in physical gold and other high-quality assets. Rule emphasizes the importance of understanding one’s psychological tolerance for risk and market volatility, dr...

Your host Tom Bodrovics and guest Eric Yeung, an investor and former contract manufacturer in China, delve into the complexities of the current silver market. Yeung highlights the deliberate complexity of the system, designed to obscure understanding, and shares his insights gained from extensive research.

The discussion begins with the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and its reported shortage of physical silver, with Yeung citing sources indicating a drastic reduction in the LBMA’s free float of physical silver from 5,000 to 0 metric tons in just two weeks. This scarcity has led to unprecedented events, such as...

Tom Bodrovics interviews Mart Wolbert, founder of the Contrarian Codex Newsletter, to discuss the current state and future prospects of the uranium market. Wolbert highlights the significant increase in the term price of uranium, which has risen to $82-$83, driven by cost inflation and project delays. He notes that despite this increase, the market remains tight, with a substantial supply-demand deficit projected through 2040. Utilities, particularly in the US and Europe, are facing challenges in securing adequate fuel supplies, leading to a shift towards longer-term contracting and higher prices.

Wolbert emphasizes that the uranium market is...

Jaime Carrasco, Senior Portfolio Manager and Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management, discusses the current state and future of precious metals with Tom. Jaime emphasizes the importance of focusing on allocation rather than the price of gold and silver, highlighting that only 2% of Western wealth is currently allocated to the sector. Tom notes the historical context, recalling that during their first conversation in March 2020, gold was around $1,575 and silver was around $15.50, contrasting with the current prices of approximately $4,000 for gold and $50 for silver.

Carrasco outlines his strategy, which involves maintaining a minimum 30% allocation to...

In this episode of The Competent Investor, host Tom Bodrovics engages with market analyst Bob Coleman and contributor Jim Hunter to dissect the evolving precious metals landscape, focusing on gold and silver amid a global bull market. The discussion highlights structural shifts since the 2008-2011 cycle, including reduced futures open interest, which has tempered leverage and whipsaws, though silver remains volatile due to its small market size and susceptibility to stops. Key insights include the interplay of backwardation and contango, where spot prices exceeding futures—driven by physical demand from fabricators and investors—creates arbitrage opportunities, potentially reversing metal flow...

Tom Bodrovics welcomes London Paul from the Sirius report for a discussion around the evolving global geopolitical landscape, with a particular focus on the role of gold and the shifting dynamics between the East and West. Paul emphasizes that China’s strategic vision for gold is deeply rooted in its historical love for the metal, which began with significant gold imports from the West around 2012. This love for gold was catalyzed by discussions with architects of a multipolar world, who predicted the eventual failure of the U.S. financialization model, a prediction that materialized with the 2008 financial crisis. China’s go...

Tom Bodrovics welcomes the other Tom, Tom Luongo, producer of the Gold Goats and Guns newsletter, to discuss various economic and political topics. Luongo shares his journey from being summarily let go at Newsmax to launching his successful newsletter. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining objectivity and adaptability in the face of unexpected challenges.

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around Luongo’s collaboration with Dexter, highlighting their differing approaches to analyzing events. Luongo tends to see linear narratives and cause-and-effect relationships, while Dexter views events more stochastically. Despite their differences, they respect each ot...

Tom welcomes Vince Lanci, Professor of MBA Finance, Commodity Portfolio Manager, and Publisher of the GoldFix Substack, discussed his concerns about the global economy and the implications for gold. Lanci noted a significant shift in his tone regarding gold, attributing it to a series of events and conversations that led him to believe China might be accelerating its plans to monetize gold. He highlighted China’s liberalization of gold ownership and the increasing purchases of gold by Chinese banks, indicating a strategic move by China to diversify its reserves and potentially challenge the US dollar’s dominance.