On The Markets

And just like that...it’s like April never even happened in the market.  And yet, have there been lurking signs for months (years?) that an economic slowdown has been slowly piling kindling, just to finally be lit by tariffs?  Let’s go On The Market. 
Prepare your ears to hear this, but the S & P 500 has recovered nearly all of it’s dip from early April.  So back to all time highs?  Maybe.  But Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP® and Chris Sipes CFP® think the underpinning for an economic slowdown has been in the cards for a long time.  T...

Q2's market turbulence seemed to find footing this week, as the S&P had a nice bounce to end the week.  Let's go On The Markets with Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Daren Blonski CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir to look at: 
 
• While the S&P 500 is seeing a nice recovery in light of the tariff pause, Daren thinks he knows the exact spot where a downturn may pop up next. 
• Trying to go 2 for 2, Daren also makes a bold prediction that Gold has finally hit the top of it's run, and why that might be a good thin...

Perhaps a calmer week in the S&P 500 as the Tariff Pause hits week 2.  While parties on both sides can argue their narrative, as we go On The Markets, with Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director and podcast host Dano Weir, Chris Sipes CFP® and Daren Blonski CFP® dig into what the data is really saying about tariffs and the economy: 

• What top business leaders actually expect will happen to their prices and spending in the next 6 months considering the tariff environment. 
• US citizens continue to buys US stocks but what about investors in the rest of the world?  Is US excep...

Daren Blonski is on assignment this week, so Marketing Director Dano Weir and SWA Managing Principal Chris Sipes CFP®, put their heads together and look at:  

0:00 Intro 
2:11 Orange Swan Event 
3:41 Salt Trae 
4:30 Sentiment in the toiler 
7:29 What would tariffs even make if they went into effect? 
13:56 Bear Market trends all the way back to 1800 
17:03 Volatility index saying S&P could surge 
19:10 Junk bonds saying recession may be here 
20:53 Bond market major concerns 
26:35 Debt is outpacing GDP 
30:35 Interest on debt is USA’s #1 line item 
32:37 Sentiment at rock bottom 
33...

News headlines would have you believing the sky is falling-  but what does the data say?  Setting aside a political conversation whether any of this should be happening, Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski and Chris Sipes dig in to what the effect on the market has been and if further changes are imminent on a special episode of On The Markets.Together with Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director and podcast host Dano Weir they look at: 
 
0:00 1st Look at our Bear Market Playbook 
5:00 Ok you want out.  Why history says wait until December 
9:47 What’s *actually* down righ...

Whether you checked headlines constantly or chose to put the phone on airplane mode for the entire week, it was hard to escape news of tariffs and the impact their uncertainty had on the market.  People hire advisors for just these moments- to talk you through what's happening, so let's go On The Markets. 

This week On The Markets Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director and podcast host Dano Weir joins Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP® and Chris Sipes CFP® to look at: 

0:00 S&P live look-in at close 
11:30 Signs of support on the horizon? 
21:42 Meme time 

Happy End Of Q1! (...what, you don't measure life in fiscal quarters?)😂 Alright SO the US is definitely doing TARIFFS and, oh, well they won't be that much, actually they WILL be even more, but maybe not depending on, well actually now we've set a deadline and....that's about how the last few weeks have been haven't they? This week On The Markets Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director and podcast host Dano Weir joins Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP® and Chris Sipes CFP® to look at:  
0:00 Nvidia Death Cross  
5:15 1996 magazine ad shocker  
8:24 Consumer sentiment looking like 2008  
12:00 Market correctio...

The Federal Reserve and their Fed Funds Interest Rate has perhaps more power over markets around the world than, well anything. This week On The Markets Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director and podcast host Dano Weir and Daren Blonski CFP® to look at:

• How all eyes remain fixed on Treasury Secretary Bessent's goal to get the 10 Year Treasury rate down, and what impact that could have on the market and your portfolio.
• Despite alleged "chainsaws" from DOGE, Federal spending is up from last year?  A look at why.
• Daren goes on a 3 slide soapbox with data data data on ho...

No two ways about it- this week was about tariffs in the market.  But what felt like an inevitable decline in the S&P found a nice bounce on Friday.  Daren actually sees even more optimism than that, so let's go On The Markets...This week on our YouTube show On The Markets, Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP® and Chris Sipes CFP® are joined by Marketing Director Dano Weir to look at:
Notable declines in US stocks understandably might have you wanting out altogether.  We've got the 45 year proof that says even if that's the case today, wait...

The stock market "zoo" is usually a Bull (markets headed up) or a Bear (markets headed down).  But a lesser-discussed marsupial came to play on Wall St. this week...a KANGAROO Market, which is a market that is bouncing up and down and up and down like a....kangaroo. 

Thanks to absolutely zero popular demand, Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director and podcast host Dano Weir joined On The Market mainstays Chris Sipes CFP® and Daren Blonski CFP® to look at:
• Why despite ups and down in the S&P 500, Daren is actually seeing signs of support for a "breako...

A mostly down week for the S&P that burst back up in the wee moments of Friday? What's Trump really up to with his proposed cuts? On this week's episode of our stock market show, On The Markets, SWA Marketing Director Dano Weir (sitting in for Daren) and Chris Sipes CFP® examine:

• The confounding result of Nvidia posting solid earnings yet saw a down week.  Proof you can never make a call with certainty?  Does this signal a bear market?
• Debate over whether President Trump will be using the market in the early portion of his term as a...

SWA Marketing Director and podcast host Dano Weir guest hosts this week with Chris Sipes CFP® to look at:
• Why consumer sentiment and market performance are completely dipolar this week.
• Would you believe that the Federal government spent more during Covid than either World War? A look at the downhill effect that had on the inflation we're feeling now.
• Speaking of history, would you also believe that in the history of the S&P 500, it's had a positive return only half the time? Are we considering this a "bad" market because it's just been too dang good for too...

On this week's episode of our stock market show, On The Markets, Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski and Chris Sipes examine:
• Why you may want Europe in your portfolio right now. Off to their best start this year since 2000, why they may be the beneficiary from a potential US trade war.
• A frank discussion on the 'bombastic' approach of announcements from the current administration, and how an investor might look at these developments.
• Consumer Price Index stats (i.e. inflation numbers) came in higher than expected this week. The guys dig in to each category and how th...

This week, our firm co-founders Chris Sipes CFP® and Daren Blonski CFP® look at:
• Why the states that voted Red in the 2024 election may have the most at stake in a trade war based on their exports to the countries on the tariff list.
• How the S&P and key investments performed in wake of the tariff announcements and pauses.
•The downstream impact of good news in the job market is perhaps not so good for Fed Rates and market returns. • Daren with document proof direct from the Fed taking essentially full responsibility for inflation, high or low.
...

Before you hit the chips and dip this weekend 🏈🏟️, we're taking a look at how the 24 Hour Trade War of 2025 (so far) hit the market, another great week for gold and Daren makes a huge call for the bond market. Let's go...On The Markets.
This week, our firm co-founders Chris Sipes CFP® and Daren Blonski CFP® look at:
• Why the states that voted Red in the 2024 election may have the most at stake in a trade war based on their exports to the countries on the tariff list.
• How the S&P and key investments performed in wake of the...

Chris Sipes CFP® is travelling for work this week, so Sonoma Wealth Managing Principal Daren Blonski CFP® goes solo On The Markets, looking at:
•Why the yield curve reinversion could mean we are possibly maybe definitely heading into a recession, soon, potentially.
• A look ahead to next week's Fed meeting and why Wall St. does not expect a rate cut.
• Why a drop in the value of the US Dollar this week was actually a good thing, for now
• The 3 stocks who are bigger on their own than the entire energy sector right now.

Take Sonom...

A new year, an incoming administration and concerns about just what will the world's reserve currency of the future be? Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP® and Chris Sipes CFP® translate how it's playing out in the market this week: 
• A look at Bitcoin once again passing $100k in value, why the US may soon have a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and...did President-elect Trump just launch his own crypto coin $TRUMP? 
• The impact of new Consumer Price Index numbers this week on bond rates, and why the CPI may have some slightly suspicious rounding going on. 
• Surprisingly goo...

Our firm's Managing Princiapls Daren Blonski CFP® and Chris Sipes CFP® break down the confounding interest rate environment on this week's episode of our show On The Markets: 
• If you owned the top 5 best performing S&P stocks in 1999 before the Dot Com Bubble burst and held those positions for a decade, only ONE outperformed CASH.  What that fact may be telling us about current market concentration. 
• Why stock ownership as percentage of overall household wealth is at an all time high. 
• Tracing the massive impact that Federal Reserve interest rates have on both the housing market and the stoc...

Daren Blonski CFP® sadly caught the bug that's been going around this winter, but he's on the mend and will return next week!  Sonoma Wealth Marketing Director and podcast host Dano Weir sits in with Chris Sipes CFP® for a look at what historical data may be telling us the S&P is going to do this year, including: 
A stunning look at how every "expert" analyst missed the S&P mark by 14-30% this time last year. 
Why measuring the S&P weighted and equally shows the last two market years look similar to...the 2000 dot com bubbl...

Chris and Daren have been running their own "Santa Tracker" this month, to see if St. Nick stopped by Wall Street with his usual bag of gifts.  The guys break down a few stocking stuffers the market received, plus: 
A look at continued market concentration, and what that means in the context of market history. 
A full circle moment as the yield curve finally finally reinverts.  Why prior reinversions have been followed by a recession. 
Disposable income's relation to inflation and how that might change in 2025. 
Why the oil chart could be "whispering" to us right now, a...

The Federal Reserve had a meeting this week and cut rates 1/4 point, but also indicated next year might only see 2 rate cuts instead of 4.  The latter of these two points seems to have upset Wall St., and Chris "No Malls" Sipes and Daren "Loves Cinnabon" Blonski look at how... 
The tone of Fed Chairmen Powell's tone alone during the meeting sent the market down almost immediately. 
An interesting visualization of how what the Fed "says" they're going to do and what they actually end up doing are not always in sync. 
A really obvious graph showing how the...

All the pundits and "experts" are feeling rosy about the markets prospects for 2025, yet SWA Principals Chris "Mulder" Sipes and Daren "Scully" Blonski think the yield curve may be telling a different story. 
A rousing discussion of the UFOs that have been reported over New Jersey this week. 
Perspective on why people are "lever-blind" when it comes to real estate, but they would never do the same in the stock market. 
The yield curve finally almost reinverts after years of confounding inversion.  In prior reinversions, that's been followed by a recession. 
The pattern in gold that has Dar...

Sentiment in the investing world is starting to feel almost resoundingly "bullish", meaning the market it going to continue up and up.  But Chris "Batman" Sipes and Daren "Spiderman" Blonski drop a timely quote this week:  "When all the experts agree, something else tends to happen": 
Daren's #1 message on every client call he takes right now:  "You cannot underestimate the power of the amount of money that has been printed in the last 5 years." 
A look at new Jobs report data and increased chances of a Fed rate cut. 
A new slide- the "Euphoria-meter", and what it might...

The concentrated stock market continued to rise this week, albeit in a somewhat quieter holiday week. SWA Principals Daren "Wishes Turkey Was Steak" Blonski and Chris "No Seafood" Sipes and take a look at the end of November and beyond: 
Why the deal on a stock is made at the buy, and why right now those deals might be outside the US, maybe in Europe. 
New homes made up 26% of the available inventory in the US this year, nearly double the usual rate.  What that could mean for real estate moving into 2025. 
Love it or hate it, Bitc...

After up and down weeks following the election, the market found a foothold this week.  Chris "Buckeye" Sipes and Daren "Capital B Bitcoin" Blonski look at... 
Daren takes a victory lap as Bitcoin nears $100,000 in value.  Bitcoin is now the 9th largest asset classes in the world, and worth more than the Great Britain Pound. 
What the cost of owning a home right now vs. renting could be telling us about the future of the economy and the market. 
Why the history of market concentration (lots of value held in only a few stocks) could mean a drop...

A frequent benchmark people use for how good or bad the market is doing-  what's your buddy saying at the BBQ? SWA Principals Chris "Sucker For History" Sipes and Daren "Doge" Blonski look at why that may not be an ideal indicator and more... 
The 3 things the United States can do to address the now $36T debt number it achieved today. 
Why are people saying "markets are going gangbusters" when...they've given all the gains back? 
What actually does "the market" mean when people at the BBQ talk about how "the market's doing"? 
Chris dares to put e...

Last Tuesday has come and gone, and the market definitely reacted.  But did it's noise cover something far more interesting from the Fed? SWA Principal Daren "Jelly Belly" Blonski and Chris "Salty" Sipes take a look this week at: 
Why "The emotional position should not be confused with your trading position." 
The under-the-radar- move the Fed made right after the Election. 
Why the Market was wrong about the Election. 
Why there's a "triangle building" in the Bond market. 
 
Take Sonoma Wealth's Free Wealth Analysis right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/ 
 
Videos available on our YouTu...

This week Daren and Chris look at: 
Regardless of who wins, the expectation is that both parties will continue printing money at their record rate.  The market at large likes this, and seems to only want the certainty of knowing either candidate's victory, without preference to who. 
 Why investing at an emotional time like the election is near-identical to flying a small plane at night. 
Analysis of an abysmal October 2024 Jobs Report and it's impact on the market. 
A look at an ultimately nice year in the bond market....so far. 
 
Take Sonoma Wealth's Free Wea...

Chart-loving Candlestick fans unite, SWA Principal Daren Blonski returns to the show! He and SWA Principal Chris Sipes break down why the "inflation" that was allegedly "over" from a "soft landing" might not be so over: 
Why Daren thinks oil is one of the most important inputs when assessing inflation, and why the current chart has him thinking the declaration of no recession might be premature. 
Why Covid mortgage rates have "frozen" the real estate market. 
Why a landslide election result either way, is likely the best thing for America and the market. 
What in the market...

SWA Principal Daren Blonski is on assignment again this week (but back next week!), so SWA Principal Chris Sipes and Marketing Director Dano Weir take the reins of On The Market and look at: 
Why US stocks are among the most expensive in the world right now, and how that offsets their "high returns". 
Why certain bonds are actually outperforming the S&P right now. 
The continued stunning run of GOLD. 
 
Take Sonoma Wealth's Free Wealth Analysis right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/ 
 
Videos available on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL...

SWA Principal Daren Blonski is on assignment today, so SWA Principal Chris Sipes and Marketing Director Dano Weir take the reins of On The Market and look at: 
The importance of giving yourself grace when it comes to investing and avoiding the phrase  "I should've known". 
Why childcare is an under-the-radar expense when it comes to economic reporting and why in some ways it's your "second mortgage". 
Why the inverted yield curve indicator may be malfunctioning. 
 
Take Sonoma Wealth's Free Wealth Analysis right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/ 
 
Videos available on our YouTube Channel: https...

The cascade effect of the Fed lowering interest rates and increased liquidity is becoming evident.  This week, SWA Principals Chris Sipes and Daren Blonski look at: 
Why Chris says numerous economic experts have been "wrong about the Recession, for all the right reasons." 
Why so-called "uninvestable" China may be sending a big signal for a bull market right now. 
The confounding proposition that the Fed cut interest rates, but mortgage rates have risen?! 
 
Take Sonoma Wealth's Free Wealth Analysis right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/ 
 
Videos available on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/playlis...

Yeah yeah yeah, tech stock tech stock tech stock, what about GOLD though? That's what Daren's been thinking this year.  This week On The Markets, SWA Principal Daren Blonski and Chris Sipes look at: 
The continued rise of gold in 2024.  Daren posits that geopolitical tensions and the election may have some large banks heaping up on gold due to doubts about the US Dollar. 
And yet don't panic yet, the United States holds 31% of the WORLD's total wealth, more than any other single country.  China's in second, but holds only 19%. 
What boarding pass scans from the TSA at air...