What's Next For Markets

In this episode, we shift the focus from oil headlines to the force quietly driving everything underneath: interest rates. Four weeks into the Iran conflict, markets remain locked on energy, but as Michael explains, it’s the surge in rates that’s doing the real damage. With the 10-year yield climbing, mortgage rates rising, and rate cuts rapidly priced out, financial conditions are tightening fast.

We break down the powerful link between oil and rates, why this supply-driven inflation shock is reigniting volatility. Michael also explains why tin he post-2022 regime investors are hyper-focused on inflation and rate...

In this episode, we sit down with Jan Stuart to unpack the escalating geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and why it could trigger a far broader global repricing across markets. Jan explains why the current disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is far more complex than an oil shock. While markets have largely treated the conflict as a one-variable story tied to crude prices, he argues the real risks lie deeper in global supply chains. We explore how disruptions could ripple through LNG markets, fertilizer supply, aluminum production, chemicals, and even semiconductor manufacturing, potentially creating waves of inflation...

In this episode, we discuss how the recent spike in crude has created a “one-variable market,” where leadership becomes highly binary. Despite the headlines, the broader market hasn’t fallen as much as many expected. Michael explains why investors are focusing less on the current price of oil and more on how long higher prices might last, with the oil futures curve still suggesting the spike could be temporary. Michael walks through a framework investors can use in markets like this: when a single variable dominates and positioning tends to become defensive, until that variable peaks. When it does, leader...

In this episode, we sit down with Danny Kirsch to unpack one of the most unusual market environments in decades. The index has traded in an exceptionally tight range, yet beneath that stability we’re seeing historic dispersion, major sector rotation, and a surge in single-stock volatility. Mega-cap leadership is fading while the equal-weight market pushes to new highs. Capital is rotating into cyclicals, industrials, materials, and energy as investors reposition for a different regime. At the same time, uncertainty around AI disruption, private credit risk, geopolitics, and policy shifts is driving a sharp increase in options activity. It ma...

In this episode, Michael and Stephen break down one of the most confusing market environments in years. While volatility in mega-cap software and AI names has grabbed headlines, the broader market is quietly telling a very different story. With the “Mag Seven” representing over a third of the S&P 500 at the start of the year, weakness in just a handful of stocks has masked what may be one of the strongest breadth environments in decades. Michael explains why this environment looks like a classic broadening cycle for the first time in nearly five years, with improving early-cycle economic data...

This week’s episode explores a dramatic shift in market sentiment that unfolded in just a few days. Emily and Michael are joined by Jay Glickson to discuss what institutional investors are saying, how AI disruption fears are influencing positioning, and why the broader macro backdrop may still support a rotation into cyclical and value-oriented areas of the market.
Despite heightened anxiety, particularly around AI and expensive growth stocks—the overall market remains near highs. The team breaks down what’s driving the disconnect between sentiment and price action, how investors are reacting, and what could stabilize markets in the...

In this Super Bowl Sunday episode, Michael and Stephen break down a volatile week in the markets that felt far worse than the major indices suggested. While mega-cap tech, software, and crypto saw sharp swings, the broader market quietly showed signs of strength, with value stocks and equal-weight indices hitting new highs.

Michael shares insights from a week of client meetings on the road and explains why the recent turbulence looks more like a healthy rotation than the start of a broader downturn. The conversation explores the shift away from crowded momentum trades and toward cyclical sectors...

In this episode, Piper Sandler Senior Analyst Crispin Love, discusses the current trends, misconceptions, and outlook in the mortgage finance space. He explains how mortgage rates have fluctuated from 7% to 6% recently and the impact on mortgage originations and refinancing volumes. Crispin highlights the significance of the rate of change in mortgage rates over their absolute levels and examines the factors influencing purchase and refinance activity. The conversation covers key data sources such as Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association for tracking mortgage activity. Further, Crispin delves into how companies have adapted to lower profit margins in a challenging...

In this episode we talk with Jan Stuart, Global Energy Economist at Piper Sandler. We discuss the current state of the oil market, the potential tailwinds from economic growth, and how a shift in demand could impact the energy space by 2026. Jan highlights the importance of oil for the economy, predicting that demand won't decline significantly until the next decade. The episode delves into the geopolitical risks that could impact oil supply, including situations in Venezuela, Russia, and Iran. Jan also talks about the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) and its role in stabilizing oil prices. We wrap up by...

In this episode, Michael discusses the team’s annual market outlook for 2026. The conversation explores key economic trends, policy developments, and the potential for broader market participation. Topics include the implications of Trump’s affordability measures, the impact of interest rates and oil prices, and specific investment opportunities for the year ahead. Michael shares a bullish view on cyclical sectors such as transportation, manufacturing, and housing-related industries, while also highlighting risks tied to economic overheating and rising interest rates.

For full disclosure information visit: http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures

This week, we’re doing something a little different.

Instead of a traditional guest conversation, we fed our full 2025 Year-End Market Review into Google’s NotebookLM and asked it to generate a five-minute discussion summarizing the year in markets.

The result is an AI-generated conversation that distills a year’s worth of research, charts, and frameworks into a concise narrative — highlighting what actually drove markets in 2025, where consensus got it right, where it didn’t, and what themes may matter most going forward.

This episode is an experiment...

In this discussion, we are joined by Jordy Visser to delve into how exponential innovation, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), is reshaping traditional business cycles. The conversation covers the potential of AI to drive earnings, enhance productivity, and impact labor markets, suggesting that the forthcoming PMI cycle could be one of the most significant in decades. We explore why AI isn't merely a bubble and its role in the evolving market dynamics. Additionally, the discussion touches on the societal impact of AI, its potential to reduce costs in various sectors, and the broad economic implications of these technological shifts. The...

In this episode, Emily Needell sits down with Amy McAneny, partner and private equity tax leader at PWC, to discuss the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) and its implications for individual and institutional investors. Amy explains critical changes such as the permanent 37% top individual tax rate, increased standard deductions, and enhanced depreciation deductions for US-based companies. The episode also explores how these tax updates impact U.S. businesses, potential benefits for retail investors, and the international tax landscape. Amy emphasizes that while there are numerous tweaks and improvements, the bill is largely positive for investment growth and economic stability.<...

In this episode, we’re joined by Danny Kirsch, Head of Options Strategy and the Trading Team at Piper Sandler. We recap the year’s market activity, discuss notable trading strategies, and look ahead to year-end and early-2025 positioning. Topics include key market catalysts, a standout options trade involving retail and the financial sector as optimistic bets for next year, and the potential impact of Fed rate cuts. We also cover shifting sentiment around AI and big tech, the influence of upcoming tax refunds, and how ongoing tariff-related court cases could shape the market. Danny also breaks down his appr...

In this episode, we discuss the market outlook and the economic cycle through Michael’s HOPE framework. We outline the four pillars—Housing, Orders, Profits, and Employment—and examine current themes, including an “E-shaped” economy. The conversation explores leading indicators that may signal improvement in 2026, trends in the housing market, and the broader impact of employment dynamics on growth. Michael remains optimistic about a gradual economic recovery and a steady improvement across key sectors in the coming years.

For full disclosure information visit: http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures

In this episode, we recap our recent travels across Europe and the U.S., highlighting what we heard from clients and how market sentiment is shifting on both sides of the Atlantic. We break down the evolving investor outlook—especially growing concerns around interest rates, wage pressures, and unemployment trends. We also explore Bitcoin’s position as a high-beta asset increasingly tied to broader risk sentiment, and assess how a potential Fed rate cut in December could shape market dynamics. Finally, we discuss why mortgage applications and housing data remain critical indicators for gauging the economic backdrop as we look...

In this episode, we talk with Emily Needell Deputy Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, to discuss the dominance of 'The Mag Seven’. We delve into the unprecedented returns of these companies, over the past decade. The conversation covers the implications of these outsized returns on the market dynamics, the distortion they create, and the shifting definitions of what it means to outperform the market. They also explore the impact of passive funds on these mega-cap stocks and debate the potential for improved market breadth in the future. The discussion wraps up with insights into what better breadth means fo...

In this episode of What’s Next for Markets?, Michael Kantrowitz sits down with Craig Johnson, Chief Market Technician at Piper Sandler, to break down the latest trends driving equity markets. From the technical setup across major indices to the underlying sector leadership and sentiment shifts, Craig shares how his charts are framing the next phase of this market cycle. Together, they explore where investors might find opportunity — and what signals could mark the next big turn.

In this week's podcast episode, we dive into the nuances of missing government data with Piper Sandler Economist Jake Oubina. He highlights the reliability of alternative data sources like the Adobe Digital Price Index and various private surveys. We discuss the accuracy concerns surrounding Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) reports and how private data could steer better insights. Additionally, we focus on recent inflation trends, particularly the impact of tariffs on margins, and delve into the data from the latest CPI report. The conversation also extends to labor market conditions, consumer sentiment, and the potential influence of AI and energy costs...

In this episode we speak with Danny Kirsch, head of Piper Sandler's Options trading desk, about the recent market volatility and its implications. The discussion covers the spike in VIX and its impact on options trading, the state of regional banks following their earnings, and the effects of potential US-China trade agreements. Danny also provides insights into the differences between current market dynamics and those of the late 1990s, the influence of seasonality on market performance, and expectations about upcoming economic data releases. Throughout the conversation, Danny emphasizes the importance of understanding whether market risks are idiosyncratic or systemic.<...

In this episode, Don Schneider provides a comprehensive update on the recent government shutdown developments and their potential duration. We delve into the political strategies of both parties, highlighting Schumer's decision and Trump's management tactics, which are softening the shutdown's impact. Don also explains the implications of the shutdown on data reporting and how it affects investors. Furthermore, we explore the recent news on Trump's threats to raise China tariffs and the administration's stance on rare earth exports. Lastly, Don offers insights into the upcoming tax refund season in 2026, detailing the expected impact of new tax cuts and how...

This week on What’s Next for Markets I’m sharing a short excerpt from my hour-long conversation with Adam Taggart (Thoughtful Money). We discuss why the current backdrop looks like a post-inflation-shock “Goldilocks” environment, why earnings breadth appears to be healing, and what a broader leadership profile could mean for small caps, cyclicals, housing, and manufacturing.
Decide for yourself—does a slower, steadier expansion favor active over passive? To watch the full discussion with Adam, go to https://youtu.be/SMtZxM94QI...

In this episode, we discuss the uncommon, but not unprecedented, correlation between rising equity markets and increasing unemployment rates. We discuss the historical examples from the 1950s, 60s, 70s, 80s, and 90s to demonstrate how higher unemployment can actually be beneficial for stock prices in periods of inflation. The conversation covers the changing market dynamics post-2022's inflation shock and how current market behaviors differ from recent periods of rising unemployment. The episode aims to provide clarity on the counterintuitive relationship between bad news and market performance.

In this episode, we welcome Alex Goldfarb to discuss the broad and complex world of real estate investment trusts (REITs) and the real estate industry. Alex sheds light on the transformation of real estate from a niche asset class to a mainstream investment option, highlighting the current trends and challenges in the sector. He delves into the dynamics of various real estate segments, including commercial offices, data centers, and warehousing, as well as the impact of interest rates and the post-COVID landscape. The discussion also covers the perceived risks versus actual performance of real estate during economic downturns and...

In this episode, we discuss recent market trends and economic data. We dig into the upcoming flood of macroeconomic data and the implications of the Fed's upcoming actions. The discussion covers investor sentiment, the softening labor market, falling interest rates, and their influence on the markets, especially in housing and smaller companies. The episode discusses the importance of expectations in interpreting macro data and the broader economic context. Tune in for a comprehensive overview of what's driving the markets and what to watch for in the coming weeks.

For full disclosure information visit: www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures<...

In this episode of What's Next for Markets, we discuss the market's performance as we enter September, a typically weak month for equities. Despite initial volatility, the markets have been performing well, led by higher beta and value names. The discussion delves into sectoral leadership, factor performance, and the influence of major stocks like the 'Mag seven' on the overall market. The episode covers the impact of inflation, employment data, and interest rates, highlighting how recent trends have created a 'Goldilocks' scenario for investors. We also touch on the broader economic indicators, anticipating potential trends and volatility in the...

In this episode, Stephen and Emily discuss the impressive recent performance in the equity markets, noting new all-time highs in the S&P 500 and significant gains since April. They explore the annualized returns, emphasizing the distinction between large growth and smaller cap stocks, and the effect of sustained higher interest rates on the latter. They delve into the anticipation of potential Fed rate cuts and discuss how these could impact small caps and the broader economy. The importance of monitoring key economic indicators like employment, inflation, and housing activity to ensure the continued positive trajectory of the market is...

In this episode of What’s Next for Markets?, Michael Kantrowitz is joined by Jim Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, for a wide-ranging conversation on the Fed, markets, and the bigger forces shaping the economy. Fresh off Jackson Hole, Michael and Jim dig into Jerome Powell’s latest message, the tension between inflation risks and a weakening labor market, and how immigration plays into the Fed’s calculus.

They also tackle the bond market’s reaction, the rise of retail traders and zero-day options, the persistent struggles of small caps versus large caps, and why hous...

In this episode, we dive into the complexities of the tech sector. The discussion highlights the significant growth and earnings performance of the tech industry, comparing today's landscape to the tech bubble of 2000. The episode also explore the relative performance of small caps and global tech, highlighting the importance of strong fundamentals over sector labels. The conversation touches on portfolio management strategies and the divergent performances of various market sectors, concluding with insights into the challenges and potential of healthcare and industrial stocks.

For full disclosure information visit: http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures

In this episode, we wrap up 2Q earnings and look ahead to key data to watch. We discuss the generally positive market sentiment, driven by factors such as the pricing out of tariff and inflation risks and anticipation of rate cuts. A key focus is the upcoming CPI report on August 12th and its potential impact on the market’s “Goldilocks” narrative. We also explore trends in small caps versus large caps, inflation indicators, and rate-sensitive equities.

For full disclosure information visit: http://www.pipersandler.com/researchdisclosures

In this episode, We sit down with Benson Durham Head of Global Policy and Asset Allocation to discuss the dynamic landscape of financial markets amid key events and economic indicators. The conversation delves into the relationship between Chairman Powell and President Trump, market reactions to inflation and employment data, and the potential for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. They analyze the recent soft payroll report and its implications, discuss the influence of tariffs, and explore how the Fed's decision-making process might evolve. The discussion also covers the long-term expectations for inflation, the anticipated impact of Federal Reserve policies...

In this episode, long-time colleagues Michael and Emily delve into the current state of the financial markets as they hit record highs. They discuss the impressive rebounds seen in meme stocks and high beta ETFs, along with the broader market's resilience despite underlying concerns. Key topics include the potential for continued bullish momentum, the impact of Federal Reserve policies on interest rates, and the influence of macroeconomic data on market trends. They also explore the unique market dynamics characterized by large-cap stock leadership and the relative underperformance of small-cap stocks. The conversation wraps up with insights into the future...

In this episode, we discuss with Danny Kirsch the parallels between current market complacency and pre-Liberation Day conditions. Danny explores the implications of extreme call buying, SPACs resurgence, and market liquidity. The episode covers the market dynamics, examining the Fed's pressure to cut rates and its impact on long-term yields, the role of volatility control strategies, and the influence of upcoming events like the August 1st market event. We delve into detailed analyses of credit spreads, equity exposure, inflation expectations, and potential catalysts like the AI summit and policy changes. The conversation also highlights strategies for hedging market risks...

In this episode, Emily Needell, Deputy Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, joins us to explore the concept of "quality" in stocks. We discuss how quality is defined, the key metrics used to identify high-quality companies, and common misconceptions surrounding the term. Indicators such as high profitability, strong interest coverage ratios, and robust free cash flow are highlighted as hallmarks of quality. We also challenge traditional assumptions, including the notion that low leverage and high dividend yields necessarily signal quality. Finally, the episode examines why quality stocks have consistently outperformed in recent years, particularly in a range-bound economic environment...

In this episode, we have in an in-depth discussion with economist Jake Oubina about the current economic landscape. We discuss the Federal Reserve's potential actions, inflation trends, and the housing market outlook. Jake shares his insights on how uncertainty over the past six months has affected consumer behavior, housing, and labor markets. He emphasizes the importance of lower interest rates, deregulation, and capital investment to stimulate economic growth. The discussion also touches upon the quality of economic data, including CPI and employment figures, and how alternative data sources can provide a more accurate picture. Jake concludes by addressing the...

In this episode, we speak with Alex Potter senior research analyst at Piper Sandler and take a deep dive into Tesla and its disruptive influence. The conversation touches on various broad topics including automakers, EVs, politics, infrastructure, energy usage, and technology. The discussion highlights Tesla's transformation of the auto industry and its broadened scope influencing tech, industrials, consumer and energy sectors. Alex discusses Tesla's comparison to Amazon and Apple, suggesting Tesla is more than an automaker, much like Amazon is more than a bookseller. Other points include the role of policy and global EV adoption trends, especially contrasting the...

In this episode we discuss the market trends and events from the first half of 2025. Joined by Emily Needell, Deputy Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, the conversation covers the market's responses to policy changes, such as tariffs and deregulation, and the broad economic data trends this year. They highlight the v-shaped recovery and the bifurcation seen across different sectors and factors, indicating a mixed recovery. Emily also provides insight into future market expectations, emphasizing the importance of quality and balanced investment strategies amid continuing uncertainties. The discussion ends with a focus on the risks posed by rising oil...

In today’s episode, we discuss the ongoing uncertainty in global markets and reflect on the events from the past five years, including COVID-19, inflation, interest rates, geopolitical and their compounded effects on market volatility. In the episode, we provide insights into how investors can position amidst these uncertainties by focusing on companies with robust fundamentals and macro resilience. Despite the volatility and unpredictability, they emphasize the importance of not reacting impulsively to macro fears and maintaining a well-balanced portfolio.

In this episode, Don Schneider Deputy Head of U.S. Policy at Piper Sandler helps us unravel the ongoing political volatility impacting the markets. We discuss the significant topic of the budget reconciliation bill, detailing its current status, timeline for passage, and the key components it entails including tax cuts, spending cuts, and the consequential impacts on the fiscal outlook and growth trajectory. In the episode we address clients' concerns about the new fiscal trajectory, and the interaction between the budget bill and Trump's ongoing tariff policies, assessing their combined effects on growth and treasury issuance. The podcast also...

In this episode, Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins hosts Michael and Steven to discuss the transformative journey and mission behind 42 Macro. Darius shares his background in Wall Street investment research and highlights the company's unique approach to providing equal access to high-quality investment insights for both institutional and retail investors. He delves into the challenges of navigating various investor profiles, the importance of continuous education, and the evolution of his systematic investment process. The discussion also touches on the importance of considering fiscal policy, cryptocurrencies, and the macroeconomic landscape's impact on investment strategies. The episode offers a deep...