Eyes on the Economy

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC’s Chief Economist, and Andrew Grantham, CIBC Senior Economist, look at why a tariff-driven, broad rebound in the factory share of US employment might not be a worthy policy goal.

Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s Deputy Chief Economist, joins Katherine Judge, CIBC Senior Economist, to discuss the deteriorating US economic backdrop, the trade landscape, and implications for the Fed and the Bank of Canada.

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC’s Chief Economist, and Ali Jaffery, CIBC Senior Economist, discuss their recent report on reducing Canadian internal trade barriers, and explain their skepticism on the size of benefits to the economy.

CIBC Senior Economist Ali Jaffery interviews Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld about his latest note on US fiscal policy, discussing the House budget resolution, implications for the Fed, and what this means for the bond market.

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC’s Chief Economist is joined by his colleague, Senior Economist Ali Jaffery, to discuss the threat of tariffs being posed by the United States and the implications for Canadian growth, inflation and interest rates.

CIBC Senior Economist Katherine Judge interviews Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld about his take on Trump’s nominees, and what signals can be gleaned about the risk to the bond market from rising deficits, and the risks to inflation and trade from tariffs.

CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld chats with Ali Jaffery, CIBC Senior Economist about how to read the tea leaves in this easing cycle. Those tea leaves point to the Bank of Canada taking another big step in December, enroute to a bit below neutral next year. For more information, check out the In Focus report here: https://economics.cibccm.com/cds?ID=c9e80163-55bb-469f-8b0a-c7f0877374de&TYPE=E

Benjamin Tal, CIBC’s Deputy Chief Economist, joins Ali Jaffery, Senior Economist to talk through their latest note dissecting the US labor market. Motivated by a desire to preserve margin gains, businesses are adding less labor with job growth trending down and a worrisome pattern of revisions making it difficult to make a real-time read on the job market.

CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld is joined by Dr. Richard Clarida, Managing Director & Global Economic Advisor, PIMCO, who shares his perspectives on the US outlook, the direction for the Fed, and the implications for markets.

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC's Chief Economist, joins Ali Jaffery, Senior Economist, to discuss the US federal election and the future directions of trade policy under a Trump or Harris presidency, and what this would mean for the US and Canada.

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC's Chief Economist, joins Ali Jaffery, Senior Economist, to discuss the labour dispute in Canada’s rail sector, what commodity prices are telling us about the global economy, and the future direction of monetary policy after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole.

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC’s Chief Economist, joins colleague Andrew Grantham, Senior Economist, to discuss the slowing in the US economy and emerging recession fears, and shares their interest rate forecast changes for both Canada and the US.

CIBC Capital Markets' Senior Economists, Ali Jaffery and Katherine Judge, discuss the outlook for shelter inflation in the US and Canada and why mortgage interest costs may increasingly distort the Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation. For more information, check out the mentioned In Focus report: https://cibccm.com/en/insights/articles/in-focus-seeking-shelter-from-shelter-inflation/

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC's Chief Economist, joins Ali Jaffery, CIBC's Senior Economist, to discuss why May’s inflation report needn’t deter the Bank of Canada from a rate cut in July, and the implications for bond market investors.

Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist, CIBC and Katherine Judge, Senior Economist, CIBC discuss how labour market dynamics and inflation risks are impacting Bank of Canada policy.

In this episode of Eyes on the Economy, Katherine Judge chats with Ali Jaffery about potential monetary policy divergence between the Bank of Canada and the Fed, and what it means for Canadian inflation. For more information, check out the mentioned In Focus report here - https://cibccm.com/en/insights/articles/finding-the-limit-how-far-can-the-bank-of-canada-diverge-from-the-fed/

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC’s Chief Economist joins Andrew Grantham, Executive Director & Senior Economist, to discuss Canadian inflation, central bank policy and the Canadian dollar.

Ali Jaffery and Katherine Judge discuss the strength of the US consumer, which reflects a wave of wealthy retirees and lifestyle changes associated with work-from-home, as well as implications for monetary policy from the permanent shift in spending preferences towards goods and away from services. For more information, check out our latest In Focus report: https://cibccm.com/en/insights/articles/in-focus-the-goods-life-how-boomers-and-work-from-home-changed-american-spending-patterns/

Avery Shenfeld, CIBC’s Chief Economist, joins host Ali Jaffery to discuss Canada’s Federal Budget, where it stands relative to previous forecasts, and the implications of it for the broader economy, the Bank of Canada and the markets.

Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC joins Avery Shenfeld to discuss Fed policy and where the US economy is heading, pointing to the fact that the current situation in the US is very similar to the soft landing of 1995. For more information, check out our latest In Focus report: https://cibccm.com/en/insights/articles/in-focus-1995-deja-vu/?utm_source=simplecast&utm_campaign=cm_insights_e-in-focus_aware&utm_content

In the inaugural episode of the Eyes on The Economy, our Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld, takes a closer look at the US economy – exploring the dichotomy that exists between the current data, which shows that the economy has been performing strongly, and polls, which would suggest the sentiment is not as positive for the average American consumer. Listen now to hear insights on what truly matters behind the numbers.