The Weekly Fix

It’s one of the riskiest trades hiding in plain sight: the Treasury basis trade.

In today’s episode of The Weekly Fix, Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, unpacks the Treasury basis trade and how it works, why it’s grown to a $600B+ behemoth, and what could go wrong. In a market built on leverage, even small cracks can cause big waves.

Neil explains why regulators are watching closely, and what investors should monitor going forward.

After a volatile start to April, High Yield markets are regaining momentum. Peter Keenan, Senior Trader on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, discusses the rally off post-Liberation Day lows, what new issue performance tells us about investor demand, and why liquidity in the secondary market remains strong.

With earnings season in full swing and Treasury yields swinging, Peter shares why patience and a sharp eye for quality remain key for credit investors right now.

Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, puts it plainly: the market expected a tariff hammer and got a bulldozer.

President Trump’s aggressive trade measures are shaking global markets, driving volatility in commodities, pressuring corporate margins, and prompting boardrooms to reassess guidance. But amid the noise, Tim highlights a resilient U.S. economy and a liquid, high-quality high yield market that’s presenting new opportunities for investors willing to adapt. The playbook from 2024 won’t work in 2025. It’s time for a new approach

In a high-rate, high-volatility environment, floating rate loans still offer opportunity—if you know where to look. Madison Pozzi, Assistant Portfolio Manager & Trader on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, explains how tariffs, supply chain surprises, and ETF selling are reshaping market dynamics—and why active management matters more than ever.

A global selloff, a weaker dollar, and rising inflation fears. President Trump’s April 2nd tariff announcement has triggered one of the most volatile market weeks in recent memory. Laurie Mount explains how the sweeping trade policy shift is shaping investor behavior and why short-duration and cash strategies are in high demand.

As tariff speculation peaks ahead of President Trump’s announcement on Liberation Day, market volatility continues to rise. Matthew Maggio dives into how tariff uncertainty, inflation fears, and shifting consumer sentiment are affecting credit markets—especially in sectors like autos and building products.

Tariff talk continues to rattle markets. And with declining sentiment, cautious retail spending, and the Fed’s inflation concerns mounting, the U.S. economy is showing signs of a slowdown.

Mindy Gudmundson, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down the economic uncertainty created by the Trump administration’s tariff threats—and what it means for markets, consumer behavior, and Fed policy.

Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) have evolved far beyond their origins in auto loans and credit cards—now spanning from music royalties to fiber networks. How can investors use this market to manage risk while maintaining yield?

Eric Hathaway, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explains why ABS remains a defensive favorite, offering built-in structural protections, shorter duration, and yields that compete with riskier assets

The tides are shifting between the U.S. and Europe. Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explores how Germany’s bold €500 billion infrastructure plan is reshaping European markets, while U.S. growth fears resurface, triggering a reversal in the “American exceptionalism” trade. Are we nearing a fixed income buying opportunity?

Spreads are tight, inflows are steady, and private markets continue to evolve. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explores why U.S. High Yield and Investment Grade bonds have delivered solid returns early in 2025, despite slight spread widening.

A wave of federal workforce cuts and looming trade policy uncertainty are keeping investors on edge. Mindy Gudmundson, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down what these policy shifts mean for economic growth, inflation, and credit markets.

Despite macro headlines dominating investor sentiment, fund flows into Investment Grade credit have quietly gained momentum in early 2025. Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explores how overseas investors and mutual funds are driving demand—even as yield-focused buyers step back.

What’s next for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? Eric Hathaway, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down the evolving discussion on GSE reform and examines the two potential paths forward—an exit from conservatorship or full privatization—and what each could mean for agency mortgages.

The first weeks of 2025 have been anything but calm. Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income, breaks down the market-moving themes, from trade policy uncertainty under the new Trump administration to AI-related volatility in tech stocks.

Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income, unpacks the recent aggressive sell-off in Treasury prices, with 30-year yields briefly touching 5%. What does this mean for fixed income investors? While spread markets have shown resilience, the focus remains on the Trump administration’s policy agenda and the Fed’s response.

2024 was a strong year for U.S. High Yield and leveraged loans but as we move into 2025, volatility is expected to increase, and valuations will play a critical role. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, shares his outlook for credit markets, highlighting risks, opportunities, and why duration and yield dynamics still offer support.

U.S. credit markets are ending 2024 on a high note, with spreads at multi-year tights despite rate volatility and record issuance. But caution is warranted as we head into 2025. Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income, discusses the binary outcomes ahead, driven by Trump’s trade policy choices.

High-yield and loan markets are closing out 2024 on a high, with record issuance and firm technicals. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, reflects on a dynamic year, from geopolitical developments to what’s next for leveraged finance in 2025.

Markets moved this week after President-elect Trump suggested 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports. Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines the market’s reaction to Trump’s rhetoric and how the Fed may react to incoming data.

Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay Fixed Income team, breaks down the post-election market reaction, including the fade in risk rallies and why tariffs—now dubbed the “Trump Tax”—are here to stay.

Brian Svendahl, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay Fixed Income team, breaks down the big news of the year: Donald Trump’s return to office. With his return, expect potential changes in U.S. tax policies, federal regulations, tariffs, and immigration – each adding pressure to inflation and impacting bond markets. Will higher inflation, increased debt issuance, and the influence of “bond vigilantes” drive rates up further? Listen to get Brian’s insights on how these developments could shape the fixed income landscape.

Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, steps away from election chatter to dive into the latest economic data. With a major miss on October’s payrolls, resilient Q3 GDP, and rising Core PCE, the numbers suggest a complex path ahead. Will the Fed cut rates to support a softening labor market?

Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income, breaks down what fixed income investors should consider with just a week to go until the U.S. presidential election. The race is neck and neck, with battleground state polling indicating it could go either way. Our guidance? Hold steady and await the outcome.

Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay Fixed Income team, shares his insights on how upcoming U.S. elections will likely shape the medium-term outlook for fixed income markets. With key data releases on the horizon—such as consumer sentiment, PMI, home sales, PCE, and GDP—the markets could see some movement.

Mark Shohet, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, provides insights on the ongoing dynamics in the financial markets and explains why maintaining exposure to floating rate assets in a diversified portfolio can be a prudent move given the uncertain rate environment.

Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income at RBC GAM, dives into why calls for aggressive rate cuts in the U.S. have diminished and how the strong jobs report validated our stance of a more measured approach. But it’s the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election that is of key importance to fixed income markets, and positioning matters more than ever.

Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, discusses the upcoming election and the potential impact on fixed income markets.

Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, examines how the market is absorbing last week’s rate cut, what ways the US elections could influence monetary easing, and the potential impact widespread tariffs could have on inflation.

The September high yield new issue calendar has been active. Peter Keenan, Senior High Yield Trader on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, discusses what events have influenced the timing of all these new issues, the performance of lesser-known issuers vs. well-known issuers, and why new issue activities give us an opportunity to engage with issuer management teams.

There may be a sense of déjà vu among investors as September’s soft markets mirror the start of last month, notes Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team. Although market direction remains data dependent, rate cuts are a forgone conclusion. And despite any market volatility from events like tonight’s Presidential debate, the path of rates will likely remain lower.

The time has come. With inflation under control, Jerome Powell signaled rate cuts are on the way, leading to markets rallying. The question now turns to how much and when. Eric Hathaway, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, examines this question and the Fed’s new enemy: the labor market.

Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, discusses how the high yield bond market has returned to its previous levels after the recent volatility.

Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, examines how the market recovered from an extremely volatile week and shares how we took advantage of that volatility to readjust our portfolios before markets calmed down.

Everyone. Remain. Calm. Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income, discusses why the market may be overreacting to the most recent labor market data in this episode of The Weekly Fix.

In today's Weekly Fix, Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, discusses our expectations around the upcoming FOMC meeting, highlighting rate cut likelihood, and shares our observances around recent market activity.

Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, tunes out the political noise and focuses on the future of the market in this episode of The Weekly Fix.

In this episode of The Weekly Fix, Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, discusses what the recent inflation measures and the attack on former President Trump mean for markets.

In this episode of The Weekly Fix, Stephen Fitzsimmons, Institutional Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, discusses the current state of the markets at the half-way point of 2024, and reflects on the changes and consistencies in the market since last year.

In this episode of The Weekly Fix, Ajeet Atwal, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income Team, examines the supply and demand factors that are driving the ongoing strength of the leveraged loan market in the U.S.

Lower Credit Quality Securities. CLO portfolios and interest could be deemed by rating agencies to have substantial vulnerability to default in payment of interest and/or principal. Other securities could have the lowest quality ratings or be unrated, have been downgraded or have been placed on “credit watch” for future downgrades. Lower rated and unrated securities can have...

BlueBay Head of US Fixed Income Andrzej Skiba discusses why slowing inflation may lead the way to rate cuts later this year and into 2025.