Asia Pacific Defence Reporter

The big international story is the ceasefire in Gaza - and thank goodness for that.

Can US President Donald Trump claim it as a personal success? Absolutely!

From what we can piece together, he was somehow able to persuade Hamas to trust Israel and at the same time finally got tough with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Let's hope the peace lasts, but with Israel's current policy settings that looks unlikely. We also preview our PM's meeting with Trump scheduled for October 20 - and let's hope there isn't any grovelling or attempts to appease the...

Better late than never, we start by looking at the Australia-PNG defence treaty, which has now been signed by the Prime Ministers of both countries.

While generally a good thing, there are questions about how suitable it is for PNG's needs and whether it could act as a vehicle for a conflict with Indonesia.

Then some words about US and Australian military cultures - and what will happen if they become completely incompatible. In the extraordinary meeting on September 30 with the entire US military hierarchy, President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth...

This week there's a lot to talk about internationally because PM Anthony Albanese has been in the US and the UK. For the latter visit, the attitude of the Australian media has been displaying cultural cringe at its worst. Please understand that Australia does not need to "shore up" AUKUS because it's the UK begging us for our dollars. The PM now has a meeting with US President Donald Trump on October 20 and who knows how that will go because if Mr Trump's rambling, incoherent speech to the United Nations was anything to go by, he appears to have lost h...

This podcast was recorded in Beijing at the end of a 12 day visit to China, the bulk of which was spent in the Xinjiang Autonomous region looking at topics such as the Belt & Road Initiative and the status of the Uighur ethnic community. But it has still been possible to keep an eye on events in Australia such as the supposed $12 billion investment in the Henderson maritime precinct and the failure to secure treaties with Vanuatu and now PNG. Plenty of egg on face for those - though the setbacks might be temporary. Also, the US seems to be de...

A correction to start with - Ukraine's Flamingo cruise missiles have a range of 3,000km, not the 1,000km mentioned in the previous podcast, giving rise to the question: if Ukraine can develop their own long-range cruise missiles, why can't Australia? Next we have the comical renaming of the US Defense Department to the War Department, as if this will do anything other than expose the Trump administration to more ridicule. Make no mistake, continuing pro-Russia actions make it abundantly clear that President Trump is not a supporter of democracies - and that could extend to Australia as the US retreats...

We start with some thoughts about the still unexplained visit to Washington DC in the final week of August by Defence Minister Richard Marles. The exact circumstances of his meeting with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth remain unclear. Perhaps the visit was a substitute for the annual AUSMIN talks, which might not go ahead because of a lack of interest on the US side. The Australian government does not seem to realise that most of the world is rapidly realigning to minimise dependence on the erratic Trump administration. In our region Japan and the Republic of Korea are re-evaluating their relationship...

Unfortunately the prediction in the previous podcast that the Trump administration will continue down the path of being an unreliable security partner is proving to be correct. US politics is swerving in a dangerous direction of dismantling many aspects of how a government functions - a process that has historical roots. Practical manifestations are things like on the one hand approving the sale of weapons to Ukraine, but on the other hand severely limiting how they can be used. The results of the Elbridge Colby revenue into AUKUS are expected by late November - and we predict that the sale o...

- The dominant international security event was the disgraceful Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, with the US President fawning and grovelling in front of his war criminal Russian counterpart. The result was nothing positive for Ukraine - no ceasefire and no new sanctions, only talk of territory being given to Russia. It is impossible to comprehend why President Trump cannot understand that it is Russia that launched an unprovoked, illegal invasion of Ukraine. This event has profound implications for Australia, demonstrating once again that the US is no longer a reliable ally. Then a bit more about SEA 3000 and details of how...

Congratulations to Japan and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries for their success in being selected as the supplier of General Purpose Frigates under SEA 3000. The attractive features of the Japanese ship are well known - stealth characteristics, high levels of automation, a fixed-face radar array and 32 VLS cells. However, this was followed by a deceitful background briefing by senior Australian figures that was full of provable untruths. This included information suggesting that the losing bid from German supplier TKMS was inflated by Defence using the false pretext that it came with a different set of weapons. No it did not. Without any e...

We promised some analysis of the UK-Australia AUKUS submarine agreement and to describe it as a framework would be generous. It has a lot of standard legal boilerplate about tariffs and tax refunds, but the substance has many gaps. It can be cancelled with 12 months notice and seems to leave all of the power in the hands of the UK government. Next - the US seems to be becoming a less reliable ally on a daily basis. President Donald Trump is now using tariffs as a political cudgel, not just an economic one of very doubtful effectiveness. Defence talks with Au...

There has been quite a bit of news about AUKUS Pillar One based on the visit to Australia of a Royal Navy aircraft carrier and a couple of Ministers. Apparently there's going to be a 50-year treaty about the AUKUS submarine between our two countries, with the document soon to be tabled in Parliament. This is probably because we can't get a treaty with the US, so let's have one with the UK instead - but it's strategic nonsense and all of the talk of industrial cooperation are just empty words. We buy a lot from the UK and in...

Details have come in about the latest US military aid package for Ukraine and it looks to be a disappointment. President Donald Trump has given Russia 50 days to start peace negotiations but that coincides with the start of the Autumn rains when ground campaigning grinds - or bogs - to a halt. Also for the weapons part of the equation - nothing is being given to Ukraine, all of the systems are being sold at normal commercial rates to NATO allies, who will in turn transfer them. In the last few days both PM Anthony Albanese and Richard Marles have s...

This episode coincides with the release of the July-August edition of APDR so there will be some cross referencing. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has started his 6-day visit to China which has sparked the usual conservative talking points about why he has met President Xi four times but has not yet secured an audience with US President and human wrecking ball Donald Trump. PM Albanese is wise avoiding him - any meeting runs the risk of going off the rails and becoming a forum of personal abuse. Then some details of the MEKO 200, the ship being offered for SEA 3000 by...

For the centenary podcast we have chosen a theme - Ukraine. The ongoing fightback against the Russian invasion is relevant to Australia in several ways, including the reliability of the US as an ally and also for the future direction of military technology. The US has again suspended some military aid, and how Vladimir Putin must be rejoicing. The bureaucrat responsible is also the one currently reviewing AUKUS and he may well figure out a way to extract even more cash from gullible Australian politicians and Defence figures. As we have previously tried explaining, the entire procurement structure could be i...

The US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities continue to dominate defence coverage - and in terms of Washington politics everyone has to agree with Donald Trump that they were obliterated. In a future joint operation, Australia would be expected to sing from the same song sheet. Let's not forget that he is continuing to support Russia - and that could have major implications for Australia. But the main theme is the TKMS bid for SEA 3000, the details of which have not come from the company because they would be in breach of Defence NDAs and people would be jailed as...

Even on the very rustic Greek island of Zakynthos, it was impossible to remain isolated from world events such as the airstrikes by Israel and the US on Iran.

While much of the commentary has split along the usual lines of conservatives around the world standing with the US, it is far from clear how close Iran was to producing a nuclear weapon - Israel has been calling wolf on this for the last 20 years.

What was the motivation of President Donald Trump? Apparently he was encouraged by the positive Fox News coverage...

We bring you a special edition podcast from the Greek island of Zakinthos to discuss the current US administration’s review of AUKUS. It’s rather ominously worded to see if it fits President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda. Why do we always need to find out about these things from the Americans? Why can’t our own Defence Minister Richard Marles ever come clean about things such as how much we are giving to the US, and why they want us to lift Defence expenditure to 3.5% of GDP? As for the review itself, why would the US want to end t...

After the previous podcast, many people might have been hoping for a description of the TKMS bid for SEA 3000. Sorry to disappoint, but the rules imposed by Defence block that, and we have figured out who is to blame. It's the probity lawyers - what a surprise.

The media visit to Germany focused entirely on the parent yard build of the first three ships, and there is no doubt that TKMS and partner companies will be able to do that without working up a sweat. Then, some personal thoughts on strategic partnerships. Many people believe the r...

Greetings from the northern German city of Hamburg and the beginning of a Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems media tour. They are one of two finalists for SEA 3000, the general purpose frigate project, but they are forbidden by Defence from discussing their proposal. This ridiculous level of secrecy seems to be in place purely to conceal Departmental incompetence and to cover up the growing possibility that no frigates will be built in Australia, ever.

Some words about US demands that Australia increase Defence spending to as much as 5% of GDP and what looks like a major difference of...

With Canberra starting to return to normal we have a bit more to discuss on the domestic front. Firstly a thank you to Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy, who agreed to an interview that will be published in full in June APDR. It was a wide ranging chat and we will continue to have different views on matters such as the Defence budget and also secrecy - but it's good to be in dialogue. Also during the week, a senior TKMS delegation was in town to discuss SEA 3000 and they are promoting the MEKO 200 as a low risk solution...

We start with a clarification from the previous episode that Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy has retained responsibility for capability delivery, even though those words have been removed from his title.  

And then a lot more about the unreliability of the US as an ally - a reality so obvious that everyone can see it, except for Australian politicians. The update of the list now includes the US coming to some sort of deal with the Houthis - ignoring everyone else - as well as having direct talks with Hamas and Iran. 

Israel was...

We have a new Federal government ministry - and it's very much like the old one. 

Richard Marles retains Defence and Pat Conroy Defence Industry, though with the 'capability delivery" element seemingly removed. This was preceded by Richard Marles using his factional muscle to get rid of two highly competent Ministers in the form of Mark Dreyfus and Ed Husic. 

Let's backtrack a bit and review the only national security topic in the entire election campaign - whether Russia had requested a permanent military base on Indonesian soil. This cannot be ruled out be...

The election result is a surprisingly strong win for Labor, but it's important to understand the basis for that. 

Yes, the Coalition ran a poor campaign and the ALP a good one - but the real reason for a reversal in poll numbers during the last 4 months is because of the Trump Effect, similar to what has occurred in Canada.  

It's important not to lose sight of the big picture - Trump's tariff war risks destroying the global economy and Australia will not be insulated from the consequences. Let's go down memory lane wit...

This Federal election 2025 special podcast starts with the shocking news that the government is offering nothing new on the Defence and national security front - and the opposition isn't much better. For Australians interested in topics other than the most dull, mundane, routine "news" they will have to go elsewhere than the election campaign and the woeful performance of much of the media. The US is radically transforming in front of our eyes, realigning with Russia and other authoritarian regimes. President Donald Trump's trade war is in the process of wrecking the US economy - and unless he changes direction, wi...

Economic turmoil continues in the US with almost daily shifts in the tariff war being conducted against everyone except Russia.

The self-destructive economic behaviour of the Trump administration is likely to drive countries in our region much closer to China - something that will have major implications for Australian security. Not that you will hear a word about that from any of our head in the sand politicians.

Then some words about the movie The Downfall and the ability of some politicians to live in a fantasy world, ignoring all of the evidence...

We record this episode with a sense of impending doom now that we know what Trump administration Liberation Day looks like – and it’s bad. 

The US is voluntarily withdrawing from world leadership, and it would not be a surprise if NATO, the IMF and the WTO are next. Not that you will hear a peep from our politicians or most of the media, who simply cannot imagine anything other than a comfortable world led by Washington. If anything, our national security apparatus is even worse, saying we should not offer moral support to Canada or Denmar...

We start with some words about the Avalon air show last week. The mood among Australian companies was a bit subdued because Defence expenditure is drying up – but top marks to the RAAF for engaging with the media and doing their best to be open and frank. On that note, an apology to AVM Nick Hogan for how some sections of the press (not us) misinterpreted his comments about F-35s. There is a lot of official support for Boeing Australia’s MQ-28A Ghost Bat uncrewed collaborative combat aircraft and hopefully it will be in series production next year. Then th...

The unreliability of the US as an ally continues to be demonstrated with President Donald Trump publicly reinforcing his wish to turn Canada into the 51st State - but you won't hear that from any Australian politicians because they are too weak to speak out in defence of a Five Eyes ally. We quote at length from Singapore's Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen, who says the US is no longer a reliable ally but instead is behaving like a "rent seeker." He warns that a political earthquake has happened and that a tsunami is coming, and we must be prepared. Thi...

The shock waves from the US betrayal of Ukraine and their threats against Canada and Denmark are being felt all around the world, except in Australia where politicians and the media have their heads firmly in the sand. A notable exception was former PM Malcolm Turnbull who has tried to alert people to the danger, but instead has only been asked about the complete irrelevance of his negative comments about Donald Trump and how they might have impacted exemptions from tariffs. Our current PM and Defence Minister can only keep repeating nonsense that the US alliance is safe because there w...

Due to the complete betrayal of Ukraine by the US, the security situation for the western world – including Australia – is worsening.  

However, you wouldn’t know that here with complete political and media indifference with people preferring to focus on the weather situation in Queensland.  

This is appalling parochialism and is ignoring the reality that the cherished “special relationship” with Washington is over. It’s finished. The US is no longer a reliable ally because the President is acting as if he is a Russian asset.  

What we are witnessing is a modern-day vers...

If any further proof of the unreliability of the US was needed, it was amply demonstrated last Friday when US President Donald Trump tried to publicly humiliate his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymir Zelenskyy at a White House meeting. It was an appalling performance by the US President – and Australia has to get the message that potentially we are on our own. But have we heard that from the government? Of course not. They are still too frightened of offending Trump that all they can talk about is continuing the support for Ukraine. Since that has come up, let’s look at the fac...

What a week! Two major events have overturned Australia’s security outlook dramatically for the worse. The first is the US throwing Ukraine under the bus and siding with Russia. What has been done to Ukraine is an absolute disgrace and it can be done to Australia – and don’t think for a moment it couldn’t happen. The attempt to extort 50% of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals for equipment already supplied is outrageous. But our political leaders are completely mute about US conduct, so terrified of uttering a single word that might upset the Trump administration. It is moral cowardice...

The instability and unpredictability of the Trump administration continues – and that should have alarm bells ringing for Australian Defence planners. The US is no longer a reliable ally as is being demonstrated by threats to take Greenland from NATO member Denmark and the unnecessary imposition of tariffs on friendly nations such as Australia. It looks like Ukraine will be thrown under a bus, which should alarm all Australians in case China’s President Xi thinks he can get away with invading Taiwan. A bit more about the completely corrosive nature of Defence secrecy and the alarming evidence that the Chief o...

We start with some thoughts about the big international story of the moment, the idea from US President Donald Trump that all Palestinians be removed from Gaza so that it can be redeveloped as a luxury waterfront enclave. This does not seem a particularly good idea as President Trump has not yet explained where the 2 million Palestinians will go, or who will pay for the redevelopment. All that the mealy-mouthed Australian government will say is that it remains in favour of a Two State solution, a line echoed by the Opposition. This seems to overlook the fact that one of tho...

We discuss several recent momentous events, including the inauguration of President Donald Trump. This has been followed immediately by various disruptions, such as the US slapping 25% tariffs on allies Canada and Mexico, with only 10% levied on the enemy China, which seems an odd way of going about things. Trump has also threatened to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal and turn Canada into the 51st state. These challenges to the international order have received widespread condemnation – but not from Australia because our politicians are too scared to say anything that might upset the Americans. And the government wonders why its popula...

In this episode we have a look at some more details of the upgraded Mogami frigate and shed more light on how screwed up the process is for SEA 3000. It is shrouded in secrecy because Defence and the government don’t want you to know how little analysis has been done for a strategically vital multi billion dollar procurement. Why does the first ship have to be in the water in 2029? Why not 2028 – or 2030? Then Defence and the highly paid surface fleet review team don’t understand that the only ship Japan can sell to Australia is the upgraded Mogami FFM...

This is a slightly delayed podcast, mainly about SEA 3000 and Japan’s offer of an upgraded Mogami class frigate. For background, here is a link to a more detailed article in APDR: https://asiapacificdefencereporter.com/mogami-frigate-fast-and-stealthy-like-a-ninja/. The frigates are very impressive with a number of advanced, stealthy features such as an integrated communications mast and a dramatic reduction in radar cross section. They have a small crew of 90 for peacetime operations based on high levels of automation and also changes to how the ship is operated – and does the RAN have the flexibility to make necessary changes in processes, particu...

Before we resume discussing the US media tour, we see that Collins class submarine sustainment has been put on the government’s Projects of Concern list. ASC, the company responsible, is legally owned by the Minister for Finance, so it’s one Minister putting another on notice. When you add the review into the Australian Submarine Agency to the mix it seems there are problems with the entire submarine enterprise – but a mere two months ago the Chief of Navy criticised the media for being too negative. Next, vertical launch missile systems and the Lockheed Martin Mk 70 that holds Harpoon...

This podcast is coming from the USA but let’s start with the review of the Australian Submarine Agency, which came to light last week. This will be conducted by Dennis Richardson, one of the most pro-US people in the national security domain – so don’t be expecting any changes to the objectives of AUKUS Pillar One, just some fine tuning of methods. Next is an update of the F-35 program and the Block 4 upgrade, which has been installed on Australia’s final nine aircraft and will be retrofitted to the entire fleet. Let’s compare them with the capabilities of a Virginia...

In this initial Defence industry chat, we discuss Navantia Australia’s Technical Partner Network.

As Jamie Gibbs explains, Navantia Australia is creating a network of local suppliers that will improve sovereign capability across the naval support domain. That’s a view shared by two of their partners, Rubicon Associates and Marenav, with both companies enthusiastic about the concept.

As John Robertson and Adam Smith (not the famous 18th century economist) describe, this approach greatly benefits strategic self reliance.

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