Bulls, Bears & BS

The U.S. dollar staged its worst first half of a year since 1973, losing nearly 12%. 

As a result of this, the U.S. dollar is now sitting on a multi-decade trendline. If this breaks... the dollar could plunge into a prolonged downtrend, erasing purchasing power and igniting another round of inflation.

This week, our host, Graham Summers, MBA delves into this situation in great detail including the U.S.'s fiscal position, the end of DOGE, the Big Beautiful Bill, and what a collapsing U.S. dollar means for stocks, the economy, and inflation.

Stocks are taking it on the chin after rising almost straight up for three months. The big question for investors now is whether this is a buyable dip... or the start of something worse?

This week, our host Graham Summers, MBA breaks down the warning signs that prompted him to close out longs and prepare for a correction over the last few weeks. He also outlines his framework for investing in this new environment, as well as his downside targets for the S&P 500, gold and crypto.

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The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both have hit new all-time highs. 

This is extraordinary considering that both indices were down ~20% in early April. What has driven this rapid move and where do stocks go from here?

This week, our host Graham Summers, MBA, answers both questions, breaking down the current macroeconomic environment, the Trump administration's pivot from austerity to fiscal insanity, as well as the red flags he sees warning that a pullback is imminent.

If you are looking to put capital to work in the markets, you NEED to hear this.

What is really happening in the Middle East today? What is the basis of the conflict between Israel and Iran? What are the implications for the balance of power between the U.S., China and Russia? How is this likely to play out? And is there indeed the potential for World War III?

To answer these questions, this week we have a special guest, Dr. Paul  Lushenko. 

Dr. Lushenko is Professorial Lecturer at the Elliott School of International Affairs at The George Washington University. He's also an Assistant Professor at the U.S. Ar...

This was a week of trillion dollar phone calls: one that happened and one that didn't.

The trillion dollar phone call that did take place was between President Trump of the United States and President Xi Jinping of China. That phone call occurred Thursday and concerned global trade, China's exporting of rare earth minerals, and U.S. accusations that China had violated the initial trade deal announced between the two nations on May 12, 2025. 

The trillion dollar phone call that didn't take place was between President Trump and former advisor and close confidant Elon Musk. The t...

The Trump administration reignited the trade war this week, first with Europe and then with China. Despite all this drama, stocks actually ended the week UP. More incredibly, the S&P 500 had its best return for the month of May since 1990!

What's going on here? Are stocks no longer taking President Trump seriously... or have they figured out that the FISCAL situation, not trade is what's driving the economy?

This week, our host Graham Summers, MBA delves into what's really happening behind closed doors at the White House, revealing a striking pivot in policy from...

Things are getting hairy in the debt markets.

The credit rating agency Moody's downgraded the U.S. due to concerns about the latter's debt levels: the U.S. has a Debt to GDP ratio of 120% and is running a fiscal deficit equal to 6% of GDP. Moreover, the "Big Beautiful Bill" making its way through Congress is expected to GROW the deficit and increase the U.S.'s overall debt levels substantially in the coming years.

This week, our host Graham Summers, MBA delves into these issues as well as some of the red flags he's...

The U.S. and China unveiled a preliminary trade deal on Monday unleashing RABID buying in the stock market. Is this trade deal and subsequent stock market rally legit... or is this all just a headline driven bunch of BS and stocks are about to roll over and crash again?

This week, our host Graham Summers, MBA delves into the details of the trade deal, what they mean for the two countries, and whether or not the lows are in for stocks. Graham also dives into the macro data in the U.S., specifically what consumer spending...

Stocks have rallied hard from the April 8th lows with the S&P 500 recouping half of its trade war decline on announcements that China and the U.S. will be meeting in Switzerland to begin negotiations of a trade deal.

So... is the trade war over... or is this just a temporary cease fire?

This week our host Graham Summers, MBA details how the trade war has played out thus far, beginning with Liberation Day, the subsequent stock market meltdown, the bond market calling the Trump administration's "bluff" and China's recent pivot, opening the door...

Stocks have been taking it on the chin with many individual companies down over 20% from their recent highs. Is this the start of a bear market, or is this a garden variety market correction?

This week, our host, Graham Summers, MBA delves into the market action, outlining several of the tools he's using to show our clients where to buy and when the next bull run will begin. If you've got money in the markets, you need to check this out!

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Stocks took it on the chin on Monday. The official narrative is that a Chinese firm, DeepSeek revolutionized the AI market by creating a highly effective version of AI for just a fraction of the cost.

But is this reality... or just another financial media narrative crafted to explain something else?

This week Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA delves into the DeepSeek phenomenon, as well as the macro picture for stocks (inflation, GDP growth, and the potential for a recession).

If you're worried about what's happening in tech stocks, this is where...

The overall indices are only down single digits... but market internals have seen a bloodbath with nine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors breaking down in December 2024.

Is this the signal that THE top is in for stocks?

This week our host, Graham Summers, MBA performs a deep dive into the market's dynamics presenting the evidence for what's to unfold for stocks in the near-term and later in 2025. If you've got capital in the markets, you won't want to miss this!

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The labor market and economy have bounced back from the growth scare of the summer. Stocks continue to hit new all time highs. However, it is clear that 2025 will be quite different from 2024 as the Trump administration takes office and begins implementing its agenda

This week our host, Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA dives into all of these issues as well as what he believes will be the dominant themes for the markets in 2025.

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The dominant theme in the markets today is Trump's 2nd term: which sectors will benefit, which companies will receive favorable treatment, and which asset classes will get a boost from institutional adoption.

In simple terms, the Trump administration and its intended policies are the tide that is moving all ships. This week, our host, Graham Summers, MBA breaks down some of sectors and investments that are poised to receive favorable treatment from the incoming administration, as well as he sees opportunity in the markets today.

If you're looking for guidance on how to invest in 2025...

Inflation data is ticking up while economic growth is slowing. Is stagflation about to appear... or is this just a slight increase in uncertainty that is spooking investors.

This week, our host Graham Summers, MBA breaks down the most important developments in the markets, offering his unique insights on what these issues mean for investors going forward. Graham also alerts investors to what he believes is the single best asset class to own given what the markets are saying right now.

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The Fed claims to be politically independent, but that's largely a myth. And no one is more aware of that than the new President of the United States, Donald Tump. 

This week our host, Graham Summers, MBA, delves into the history of the Fed's political interference, outlining clear examples in which the Fed has "tipped the scales" in favor of the establishment.

Graham also outlines some of the proposals the Trump administration has floated to address this situation, including handicapping the Fed's autonomy with interest rate policy and more.

Put simply, a Trump 2n...

Stocks are exploding higher on the announcement that Donald Trump is officially the 47th President of the United States. 

Why is this happening? Will it continue? And what's the best means of profiting from a Trump 2nd term. This week our host, Graham Summers, MBA details all of these items and more, outlining the macro framework of a 2nd Trump Term.

If you're looking for specific investment ideas to profit from this, we just published a webinar What Trump's 2nd Term Means For Stocks that breaks down which sectors will perform best under Trump, which s...

Numerous asset classes are indicating the same outcome: a Trump 2nd Term begins in early 2025.

This week our host, Graham Summers, MBA delves into what he is seeing in the markets, how the markets are anticipating a Trump 2nd term, and what this means for stocks going forward.

If you're looking for specific investment ideas to profit from this, we  just published a webinar What Trump's 2nd Term Means For Stocks that breaks down which sectors will perform best under Trump, which sectors will lag behind, and the #1 investment to own w...

The stock market is sending very clear signals that it anticipates President Trump will win a second term on November 5th. This will have a seismic effect on asset prices. This week, our host Graham Summers, MBA outlines some of the big picture for what a Trump win means for the markets.

For those of you who are looking to get detailed investment analysis on what a Trump win will mean for the markets, Graham will be posting a webinar on Friday 2PM EST detailing:

1) What a Trump win means for stocks in 2025...

The Fed, European Central Bank and The People's Bank of China are now all easing monetary conditions. This is having a seismic effect on the financial system, including risk assets such as stocks. 

This combined with the U.S. running its largest deficit outside of WWII is resulting in a strong bull market driven by the "reflation trade." This week our host Graham Summers, MBA delves into what this means for investors and which investments will perform best as a result of these policies.

This is the ONLY macro-based podcast you need to hear this w...

The jobs numbers for September came in piping hot. Unfortunately some ~90,000 those 254,000 jobs were created in government spreadsheet, NOT the real economy. This deceit, regardless of its intentions, has resulted in a major shift in expectations of the Fed's future rate cuts.

This week, our host Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA delves into the implications of this for risk assets. Graham also breaks down the proposed interventions from China, and why we remain risk on albeit less aggressively so.

Finally, we are VERY excited to announce the official public launch of our new crypto...

China has announced its first major stimulus program in two years, with the goal of driving Chinese equities higher. This combined with the U.S. Federal Reserve easing monetary conditions means that the two largest economies in the world are now in easing mode.

This will ignite the reflation trade.

This week, our host Graham Summers, MBA delves into the details of the reflation trade, outlining which stocks he's watching for clues as to what's to come. He also provides a breakdown of the macro picture for the U.S., particularly as it regards to...

The Fed cut rates by 0.5% last week. Many commentators are seeing this as a signal that the economy is in recession. We completely disagree. In this week's episode, Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA outlines why this time "is different" and what it means for risk assets, particularly stocks. Graham also provides a macro framework for the next 18 months, as well as where he sees stocks going before this bull market ends.

Finally, Graham dives into gold's recent price spike, placing it in the context of two potential outcomes for what is happening in the financial system...

Following the "growth scare" of late July/ early August, stocks have discounted an economy that will keep growing and a Fed that is about to start cutting rates. Today, the S&P 500 is at all-time highs with the Fed expected to cut rates by at least 0.25% at 2PM EST.

However, with the Presidential election looming and the Fed already in the crosshairs for former President Trump, a lot can change between now and year-end. In this week's broadcast our host and Chief Market Strategist Graham Summers, MBA delves into why this business cycle is unlike any other...

The Sahm Rule has  triggered, igniting concerns that a recession has arrived. But is this just another false positive in the current unusual business cycle... or is the economy actually rolling over? Moreover, are stocks about to crater into a prolonged bear market... or is this an opportunity to buy the dip

We address all of these issues in this week's episode.

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Inflation came in cooler than expected this week. This has opened the door to the Fed cutting rates sooner than expected as rates are at 5.5% while inflation is now at 3%. This is extremely bullish for stocks as even lagging indices (the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Russell 2000) are finally catching a bid.

In simple terms, there is NOTHING bearish in the stock market right now. And our clients are profiting beautifully from it. We delve into all of these items in this week's episode as well as how you can use our research to boost your...

Stocks have closed at new all-time highs in four of the last five weeks. But the economic data has taken a sharp turn for the worse. Estimated GDP growth for the second quarter cratered from 3% down to 1.5% in the last two weeks. And the unemployment rate is now ticking higher, suggesting a potential Sahm Rule Trigger which would mean a recession has arrived.

Is this the real deal... or is it just another false positive for recession indicators? We dive into all of that this week, along with our forecast for stocks heading into the second half...

Stocks just hit new all-time highs, but I anticipate a growth scare to trigger a MAJOR buying opportunity within the next six weeks.

One of the most accurate predictors of a recession is the Sahm Rule. And I believe we'll get darn close to a Sahm Rule trigger sometime before August 10th. When this happens, the investment world will panic, pushing stocks down possibly as low as 4,900 on the S&P 500.

When that happens, it's time to BACK UP THE TRUCK.

I explain why in this week's episode.

...

Is a recession about to unfold, crushing stocks?

The calls for a recession are growing by the week. However, for those focused on making money from the markets, it's important to note that things are in fact different this time: the pandemic and subsequent monetary/fiscal interventions have badly warped the economic data in the U.S. 

As a result of this, a number of metrics that have previously predicted recessions might in fact be WRONG this time around.  This week we delve into the data in the U.S., what it's likely to state in...

The market is sending us clear signals that is it focused on the inflation data, which is trending down. This, combined with a drop in Treasury yields, is signaling disinflation. What does this mean for stocks going forward? And are the recessionary signals people are so worked up about on social media REALLY worth paying attention to? We cover all of this in this week's episode. If you've got money in the markets, you WON'T want to miss it!

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The macro picture is shifting from higher growth and inflation to lower growth and disinflation. This will benefit certain key sectors and open the door to additional profits for those who play this right. However, in the big picture, stocks remain in "risk on" as there are ZERO red flags or signals of systemic risk in the financial system today.

Don't overthink it, profit from it!

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This week we dive into the probabilities aspect of investing... and why you should NEVER bet the farm on a crash. We also explore AI from a technological and historical framework using the build out of the Internet in the late '90s as a reference point.

If you're interested in making money from the markets... and navigating AI from an investment perspective, you NEED to hear this.

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This week we are obliterating some of the myths surrounding the economy and stock market. If you've ever wondered why the economic data doesn't "feel" right... or why stocks go up despite BAD news... or what REALLY matters when it comes to making money from the stock market, this episode is for you.

Oh, and we also break down AI and its true relevance as far as the markets are concerned. Check it out!

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Bulls Bear and BS is back.

I am beyond thrilled to announce that my new book Into the Abyss: Life After the Bubble is now available to purchase at Amazon. You can purchase it by CLICKING HERE.

This book is the sequel to my 2017 best-seller The Everything Bubble. It is divided into two sections (The Everything Bubble Has Burst and How to Invest After the Bubble). If you're looking for specific investment strategies to employ to profit from what's happening in the financial...

The Fed has abandoned its "higher for longer" narrative and is now talking about cutting rates three if not four times in 2024.  There are several reasons for the Fed to do this. Some are HIGHLY questionable. Others are valid. But regardless the Fed Pivot will have a dramatic effect on risk assets going forward.

This week we delve into all of this as well as a history of Fed interventions... as well as why the S&P 500 will hit 5,000 before the end of 1Q24.

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Bonds are telling us that the Fed is done raising rates. The yield on the 2-Year U.S. Treasury peaked in early October and has since fallen from 5.2% to 4.8%. Interest rates are at 5.5%, so the bond market is not only telling us that the Fed is done raising rates, but that the Fed will have cut rates by two or three times in the next two years.

This has ignited one of the best single month returns for stocks in 30 years. This week we delve into where stocks go from here and why.

Thanks for...

Bonds continue to break down in anticipation of the U.S. Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement due out next week. We are now getting to the point at which a panic could hit bonds, which would trigger an aggressive drop in stocks. This week we delve into these issues as well as what's happening in gold and oil.

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War has broken out in the Middle East... and everyone has an "expert" opinion on it. We're staying in our lane this week and focusing on the markets, specifically, what bonds are telling us about the potential for a full-scale crisis. We also break down the framework we've developed for trading the markets over the last 20 years... and why it works as opposed to the "rules based" trading that you can learn from a book.

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Treasury yields continue to spike. Regional banks are breaking down. Bank of America is back at the March 2023 lows.  Is a bank crisis about to hit? And what does this mean for the broader stock market.

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This week, Graham Summers, MBA delves into the stock market framework he's developed over the last 20 years of its career. He also explains why stocks are finally dropping, where this leg down will end, and what to do about it.

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